how far further this goes is the question. >> we will get higher inflation, but it is mostly because the economy will come roaring back. >> consumer confidence is going to come back. >> we do have inflation and inflation fears. that is good for the reflation trade and the cyclical trade, and that is what we want. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on bloomberg tv. your equity market up 43. the s&p, advancing a little more than 1%. tom keene, yields are higher. tom: yields are higher on a relative basis. it is a stasis and a path to normality. we have all the fed speak coming up as they reset. what is important here from a fed angle is they do this after

australia was very aggressive in saying enough. jonathan: pushing back last week and pushing back again. do you know the move last week on a treasury yield? seven basis points after a massive rally on friday. it was volatile. tom: i was off on sabbatical. it was an arduous friday for me. it continues today. the equity markets, 12 months trailing, coming off the depths of the pandemic. standard & poor's up 29%, nasdaq 100, jon, i wish i was not triple leveraged, all caps, up 54%. jonathan: the snapback has been unreal. lisa: the question in my mind is morgan stanley last night, where they said in general real rates where they rise can be positive for both equities and credit. however, if that rate rises associated with lower inflation expectations or a premature

tightening of the federal reserve, or expectations of that, it could be negative. that is the tension underlying the market. jonathan: good morning. the s&p 500, futures with a lift, up 42. we advance a little more than one percentage point in the bond market. a huge turnaround, back down to 1.43. with a lift day today of about two basis points. 1.20 on euro-dollar. euro coming in about .2%. lisa: weakness elsewhere. let's talk about the fed speak. who is not speaking? williams, messer, kashkari -- what are they going to say? what is going to be there presiding message? we want to keep conditions easy. with that be enough for markets ? we are going to get manufacturing data from ism as well as construction spending. i am particularly interested in construction spending, given the

fact that we have seen a rise in mortgage rates as well as a cooling-off of some of the sentiment around how high the prices have gotten. at 1:30 pm, jamie dimon, the chief executive officer of j.p.morgan, will be speaking on bloomberg television. i want to know what he is going to say about walmart's foray into fintech. walmart trying to build out consumer lending efforts at a time when that seems to be a pretty robust area of growth. jonathan: you mean we are not going to push them on the bond market? that is what i was looking forward to. jamie dimon coming up later on bloomberg tv and radio. we are higher on the equity market come on the s&p 500 come on the nasdaq. you brought up the nasdaq earlier. last week hammered, down around 5% on the week. tom: i'm really glad you bring up this partition in the equity markets. the answer is, as you say, we had a huge swing at yields last week and the equity market, we

visit right near record highs. it comes into this new earnings visibility. what is the most important thing today? it is march 1. jonathan: it is march 1, and that is the most important thing. lisa: thanks, tom. tom: we get earnings visibility in a gdp economy. jonathan: i just wanted to get clarity. you never know. tom: it is back. jonathan: you are back, too, clearly come in a big way. do you want to tell people who garrett is? or do we move on? tom: everyone knows who gareth is. jennifer knows who gareth is. jonathan: the timing is now. why? >> first of all, it is very important, the fact that we are already going through that second phase and we are seeing the light at the end of the

tunnel. we are not going to be in this space of highly accommodative monetary and fiscal policy forever. it is not sustainable. we have to start planning. the question or the challenge i think is how are you going to communicate that to markets when you're freaking everybody out too much. we are seeing that in parts of europe where things are still under a lot of pressure, but they are already thinking about what is going to happen in the next couple of years. for example, germany is going to do, what germany is going to do with their debt rate. tom: the story to me last week with the turmoil and the rebound, not to lower yields, was the intrusion of speculation, the idea that there is speculation, there is investors, people out there living their lives. measure the intrusion of speculation on our markets in 2021. jennifer: we saw the intrusion in spades last week with that extreme volatility.

it looks like it has gotten ahead of itself. i don't know about everyone else, but i was quite relieved last night when i saw asia open up and we saw a lot more of the green on the screens. this is the kind of volatility i think that will be with us for some time, given the pandemic is still a current story. there is going to be a lot of ups and downs as we move through the year, so i think we are going to see a lot more of this intuition prevailing more often than in the past. lisa: one of the key areas is the outlook for inflation, a controversial area with a lot of widening expectations, which provides a consensus that inflation will pick up. are the breakeven rates that people typically look at to determine future expectations an accurate gauge of future inflation expectations, given the fed's interventions and buying up underlying securities used to make this measurement?

jennifer: that is a great question. i would not call it highly accurate. i think at the end of the day you have bond yields doing what they are doing, you have inflation expectations doing what they are doing, but at the end of the day it all goes back to the economy and it is going to be the economy that drives markets, drives inflation. we are looking for a pickup in inflation this year. it will not be massive or anything, but we are already seeing that throughout the economy. you hear companies complaining about lever shortages, strong housing markets thing to the -- thanks to the work from home movement, driving up copper prices. you see a lot of these prices edging higher. companies already who have been struggling, are finding it difficult to swallow a lot of these prices, so price increases -- they are starting to push that out to the consumer as well. that is why the various ism surveys, the numbers, the

headlines are interesting, but i think more interesting is what the respondents say and what they are saying about the price pressure, whether or not they are certain to push higher prices on to consumers. overall, inflation is going to be heading higher -- not sharply, but we are starting to see the pickup. jonathan: the data out of china is not good, the recovery slowing, that is interesting in the context of what we are seeing in the commodity market, a massive rally this year so far in copper, in crude, and the chinese economy slowing a bit. tom: and particularly, metals exchange. what is important is we have not seen the pacific rim rake out to a new breakup. pacific rim did not move. jonathan: build on that for us, jennifer, if you can. how would you characterize what is happening in china? how important should it be with

what is happening elsewhere? jennifer: i think it is important overall. china is one of the key players out there. the fact that there slowing is a little bit worrying, the fact that they are slowing is a little bit worrying, but they have seen a v-shaped recovery after bottoming in the first quarter. you have seen a huge rebound in economic growth there. it is kind of understandable that we are seeing some cooling of the step back. the fact that this is also covering the january-february period with the chinese new year, makes it little more volatile and harder to read. it is more interesting to see what is happening in the coming months. lisa: are we overestimating or underestimating the rebounds we will see in the services sector? jennifer: as soonest things start to reopen -- and we are -- as soon things start to reopen -- and we are seeing that happening -- going to the gym,

restaurants, movies, i think everyone is overly fatigued from being locked up at home, and given the fact that we have seen a lot of savings parked on the sidelines, we will see that unleashed. i think the services sector is ripe for rebound. jonathan: jennifer lee, great to catch up. thank you very much. this story out of china is really important. we do not see a corresponding move in the commodity market, but the data in china is saying that the story is slowing down. tom: it is an ebb and a flow. a little bit of a pullback here. i look at it as almost a normalcy. we look at the word crater all the word crater all-time, crushed, plunged, standard & poor's 500, it has corrected massively, 2%. jonathan: i think we can say that real yields surged. can we say that? tom: lisa, what is it about when i walking the building here, i

get in about 5:20, 5:30, i try to get in after you with your extensive time there, and you walk in and they're promoting the real yields friday on bloomberg tv. what is that about? lisa: i had no idea where you were going. i'm not sure. i will say this, talking about the china data, because i want to pick up on that, volatility and that indicates how difficult it is to pinpoint what the economy is currently doing. jennifer lee was talking about the new year and how that skew the data and how the data came in halfway through, and how the second half of that timeframe could actually be where the acceleration took place. it shows the deep uncertainty underpinning the conviction. tom: there is the daily gloom, jon 6:11:26.

jonathan: coming up, jonathan golub, credit chief equity strategist. i have missed you, tom. tom: oh, please. jonathan: good to have you back. [laughter] to kit: senate democrats will not try to raise the minimum wage as part of a relief package. they had considered including tax penalties on the companies that pay low wages as well as incentives for small companies to pay a higher minimum, but it became clear that getting all 50 democratic senators on board would be difficult. to help pass this to mills bill saturday. donald trump told a group of conservatives he is laying the groundwork for a third presidential campaign. the former president stopped a hair short of declaring he is the candidate for the 2024 race.

his 19 minute speech in florida made it clear that he is -- that he is the best choice for the republican nomination. donald trump called the u.s. just pulled the u.s. out of the agreement. iran wants the u.s. to lift economic sanctions first. in the u.k., rishi sunak has signaled that he is ready to fix the countries battered finances. he's also promising to maintain support for businesses and workers as long as the pandemic lasts. comes out with the budget on wednesday. the world's largest retailer is a step closer to creating the bank of walmart. the chain has hired away two senior bankers from goldman sachs to run its technology starter. walmart is not -- offering core banking product.

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pres. biden: we have no time to

waste. if we act now, we can finally get ahead of this virus, we can finally get our economy moving again. jonathan: great vaccination numbers from new york city this morning, alongside tom keene, this at burma what's, i'm jonathan ferro. -- lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. you'll time now by about two basis points after a huge round trip over the last couple of sessions. 143 is your -- crude back with a 62 handle, a little more than 1%. tom: i'm glad you mentioned the vaccine because this is clearly newsworthy. clearly their perception is that the vaccine over the week and was plus, plus, plus. to get you to where we will be april 1. got to be good news for the market.

jonathan: and we have another vaccine in the market. that is important. tom: i'm hearing a lot of really constructive news from people, who are excited about getting the vaccine. we go to washington, emily wilkins joining us this morning. i want to know the when of the senate because a clear reading over the weekend is stimulus and the next round of stimulus, folding into americans consumption. 70% of gdp. when do we get those checks? >> the senate deadline for passing the bill remains march 14, the day that supplemental unemployment insurance runs out. no one wants that to happen, so lawmakers are on track to make that the big development over the weekend, whether we will see something on the minimum wage, the senate not raise it outright. they are looking to pressure companies to potentially raise it, but we are hearing last night that that idea is being dropped because they need to make the deadline.

tom: they need to make the deadline, but when is the why here? what is the politics over the next 14 days, wrapped around the minimum wage debate? emily: you have to look at this from two sides. from the moderate democrat side, they were concerned about raising it up to $15, and that way the senate parliamentarian ruling knocking out that proposal. now a lot of attention is going to the moderate democrats. some say they cannot approve a bill. without some sort of gesture toward the $15 minimum wage. tom: jim vander hi at axios said there is a six seat difference in the house. that is what we will see every step of the way, the fear over losing the house. jonathan: let's build on this a little bit more. do people think the president is doing enough to lean on the moderate democrats? emily: i have heard calls from

progressive democrats that the president needs to do more. they want him to use his muscle, they want check would -- they want chuck schumer to use his model -- his muscle. there is this question of exactly how do you rectify getting that $15 minimum wage with the timing at play? there is also discussion about let's get the stimulus package through, and let's come back then and see if we can do something on than the minimum wage separately. that gets tricky because if you pass a bill through the regular process, you need 10 senate republicans to join with democrats. jonathan: what is the greatest division right now, between the republican party the democratic one? emily: if you are looking at short-term legislation, it is the democratic one. they control the process. they need all their members on board. if you look broader at the 2022 or even 2024 field, there is a

lot of attention on the republicans. lisa: 2024, we are talking former president trump, who did not rule out a 2024 run. is there competing voice taking the helm to push the republicans forward? emily: according to what we saw this weekend at cpac, trump is still the leading force of the republican party. you saw that from a pole, a survey that participants at cpac took. you heard that from other top speakers, praising former president trump in speeches. even other candidates who would be good potential for 2024. enter ted cruz, florida governor ron desantis. you all sort of heard them make mention of trump and sort of make sure that they want to -- because they know if they do run for president -- and they want to be successful -- they have to get trump supporters. lisa: mike pompeo sounding like

a candidate. kind of unclear. there is a question of what a president trump influence really is over the stimulus debate. even the fact that his rhetoric seems to support a bigger stimulus effort. what is his influence given the fact that this has been all over the place here? emily: if you listen to trump come he did not mention the stimulus at all. he kind of played on his greatest hits, immigration among them. what you heard more here from republicans is trying to attack democrats for having items in the bill that they say do not directly relate to stimulating the economy and helping out with covid and the vaccine. i think on the stimulus, you have heard a larger voice with the republican leaders in congress, but they have been effective. when use of the bill passed the house on friday, you did not see a single republican go ahead and support this 1.9 trillion dollar package into helping americans. jonathan: emily, always great to catch up.

what a week ahead we have for you. if it kicking off later today with new york fed president mr. williams. later this week we hear from chairman powell. friday it is payrolls friday in america already. tom: really important to see the jobs report. i'm going to go to wage growth. heart of the inflation fear is the fear that wages and benefits are going to rise, and the optimists pushing against inflation say wait a minute, there is no evidence that we will see wage inflation. jonathan: policy is totally disrupted. we witnessed that friday when we looked at what personal income was. 20% in the united states of america, and the correlation between that and the labor market just totally broke down. lisa: there has been a lot of guesswork, which is why we have not seen a predictable market response. there is also a great degree of uncertainty about how much the services sector can bounce back,

given the fact that you cannot get five haircuts for the five months you skipped it. how much pent up demand can be unleashed into the economy? also given up some of the inefficiencies built in, new restaurants that have to get started, new people that have to be hired, this is a big? also as we head into a post pandemic era. jonathan: do you play down the tech boom? lisa: the savings rate could be into paying back payments, and it is unclear how much could get unleashed, given that everybody wants the same places. can everyone get flights? i'm just raising issues of the elasticity, to use tom's word. jonathan: can everyone get flights? i'm just following up, just asking. tom: i'm being quiet, just watching her go down in flames. lisa: i don't think i'm going

down in flames. i think i'm raising salient points. you have to hire more people if there is a delay. jonathan: oh, you have to hire people, too? just wanted to confirm. that's good. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, a bounce back come up 1% of the s&p. on the nasdaq, up about 1.2%. last week, down 5%. on the russell come up 6% of the session come out last week down almost 3%. you get the picture, a big bounce back in the context of moves we saw last week. can you believe it? a high of last week of 161. if you asked someone, what was the move last week on treasuries? a little less than seven basis points. the amount of disruption by the volatility, we talk more about that later. the 10 year yield up by another eight basis points on the session. a huge move lower on friday's

session. and a pushback has come from everywhere else except the fed. it has not come from the bank of england, the federal reserve. they like with a c because the vaccine rollout is so good at the prospect of reopening is clear. -- and the prospect of reopening is clear. australia is pushing back hard. in australia, down another 2, 3 basis points. the aussie stronger, copper doing nicely again. tom, you have to think about this in the context of china. tom: totally a china play. jonathan: we are still constructive in the commodity market. the data i'm seeing out of crunch -- out of australia, out of china does not support the idea that we are on the cost of a commodity super cycle, so to speak. a commodity rally, sure, but a super cycle needs china to deliver big. tom: like a percent on nominal gdp or higher.

to the point -- 8% on normal gdp or higher. to the point, there is a raging debate and equities. laura with us from rbc. she was a superb the last time she was on. you saw the events of last week. did you change your enthusiasm for equities? >> it is funny. i asked a lot of people i question and on a scale of one to 10, how concerned are you about what happened in the bond market? most people said 3, 4, five. that is probably around the range i was in. i would chop it up to something concerning, something we have to keep an eye on, similar to what we saw with robin hood and reddit, similar to what we have seen but it is not eroding my case for equities yet. we have to keep an eye on it. jonathan: did you witness rotation or things coming off the bottom? lori: you win this rotation

initially. we went from rotation out of the old growers into the cyclicals. we had a defensive, anti-physical -- antithetical tone that took hold. it was a jungle week. lisa: last week, jon kept asking, has the rally in the consumer saw -- stocks, the small caps, has that going into just recovery and catching up with other stocks or are we pricing in reflation? do we have more to go in that trade? lori: the piece we put out last tuesday, we said we may be embarking on one big catch up and equities are not going to catch up until we let that play out. consumer discretion is a different beast than small caps -- in small caps than in large camps. you have -- large-cap's.

you have things that are more secularly challenge in small caps. there is a valuation opportunity. there is a lot of hair on it. it is accommodation of both, but i do not think we should underestimate the catch up potential. as i talk to investors, a lot of them are concerns that reflation has been baked in. you can make that generalization to some extent, but there are pieces like the small-cap energy where it cannot possibly be priced in even on an absolute basis. you are not even elevated. lisa: the conversation about benchmark yields and the catch of trade. how much is the catch up trade hinge on rates remaining around where they are? how much can rates rise before we end up talking about the catch up trade looking different with a different backdrop? lori: we need rates to keep rising but we need to do it in a slower, more orderly fashion.

i do not think it is the level of yields. it is the fact that it is happening in such a dramatic faction -- fashion. one investor last week said this all feels weird. when you have extended valuations for the market as a whole, that weirdness is probably going to make some eyes focused on risks perhaps more than they should -- focus on risks perhaps more than they should. we are going to continue to see walkie things happen. -- wonky things happen. this catch up is not going to be fast and ferocious. jonathan: cyclicals with negative earnings in 2020 have returned 25% year-to-date. let me read that again. cyclicals with negative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have returned 25% year to date. tom: and then with the 43 hundred on spx and out early on a lot of people. i just looked at the russell

2000 small caps. the chart is beyond elegant and terms of trend. describe the trend, the power that you see in the russell 2000 series. lori: it is pretty sample -- simple. if you look at relative valuations between the russell 2000 and s&p 500, there is a lot of dirty stuff but if you clean up the data we are all the way back down to extremes, all-time, historic lows on the relative valuation. with the meaningful movement we have seen the last few months, small caps are deeply undervalued versus large. they are closer to that low they just put in than to the long-term average. there is a lot of runway in this train. jonathan: let's talk about participation. how has the participation been in all of this? how will allocated have your clients been to the stores that

have performed well? lori: it is hard to parse out exactly what has contributed to it, but if you look at the year to date performance, active managers have not performed that well. that is also year in which they did not perform that well either care and this is all looking relative to benchmark, not absolute terms. i want to go back to something you guys mentioned earlier about the low-quality trade. we did a study showing whether you are looking at large-cap or small-cap on average low-quality trades last about 25 months coming out of recessions. we are only about halfway through that. that is a big problem for active managers because they do not like to own that stuff. nobody wants to say, i have this low-quality portfolio, invest in me. it is not what they do. to be fair to them, that is not what outperforms over time. we do have these powerful bits and pieces of the market. by some accounts, we are only halfway through that. that is the pain trade right

now. the market is attached from fundamentals they want to own over the longer-term, not the improving fundamentals we are seeing come off the bottom. jonathan: you are telling us, to put a bow on all of this, even if it stands consensus, we have not seen this story. a lot of people have still missed out on these gains year to date. lori: i have told investors there is a consensus. you know me well. i never like been part of that consensus, but i took a close look at it when i came back. i did not think it was wrong and i saw a room from a valuation opportunity. the problem is there is not a uniform consensus on the sell side and by side. the buy side has been fighting this. they are scrabbling to reposition. that is what you're seeing on some of these down days and the nasdaq and tech stocks. they are having to sell the old fundamentals. have not gotten on board with the new fundamentals yet. lisa: we cannot let you go

without talking about the gamestop phenomenon and technical oddities, particularly in the small-cap space. i was struck by a story that came out over the weekend about kathy wood that talked about how much cason -- concentration or bets have. basically, she owns more than 10% of at least 29 companies. it accounts for much more than that if you include the holdings of a related investment firm. how much does this create an idiosyncratic risk? lori: this is all challenging, especially from an active manager perspective. some of these retail names people are not necessarily going to want to name -- own. some have been more popular. some have been less popular. we took a look at that. at the end of the day, it is another thing you can put in that category of weird oddities in the market. we have this ne-yo, hot category of etf's. investors do not own all the bits and pieces. they own some.

they are not entirely sure what to make of the phenomenon but we do have a but -- a bit of questions. jonathan: tom keene, a cyclical trade, a low-quality trade. just absolutely flying. tom: the trade is there. how much of a balance is this and where are we in the cycle? if you look at the charts, we are trending off the bottom. you say, tv and radio is about a one year chart, a two year chart. what about a five year trend on small caps? is anybody talking about a 10 year trend on small caps? tom: we have not see the mount up yet either. a lot of people might think the same thing, that we have not seen the increased participation. we have not seen. tom: i did not see catharsis over the weekend, last week. it was orderly. that is not what happens when things shift.

jonathan: first it was disorderly. that raises questions for the fed later this week. lisa: it raises questions but also raises a question about what a catchup trade looks like, given the fact that you may see some of the biggest gainers from that period lose value and lose values indefinitely if we see rate rises like last week -- significantly if we see rate rises like last week. volatility in treasury yields is the highest since last april. jonathan: volatility returns. lisa: they do not want to move prematurely and blow the rest of the ammunition they have ahead of what could be potentially something they have to address. tom: i'm looking at the merrill lynch move chart. end of 2016, angst. beginning of 20 angst -- 2018, angst. massive pandemic angst. there was just another bout of it. jonathan: granted, over the last

come up big moves in volatility, the chairman has been a little bit -- tom: you would be correct except thursday and friday, when i was on sabbatical, we had wonderful -- jonathan: you were here thursday morning. you were on the air with us. maybe you are not mentally here. physically, i can confirm you were with us on thursday. futures up 40. tom: really? jonathan: i knew you were somewhere else. the 10 year up four basis this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: looks like the proposal for a higher minimum wage will not be in the coronavirus relief bill. senate democrats are shelving a plan to use tax hikes on big businesses to get them to raise wages. the concern is it would not be possible to get all 50 senate democrats on board. the house passed the relief bill over the weekend.

the biden administration is looking for money to fix america's infrastructure but it has ruled out raising the federal gasoline tax. here is pete buttigieg. >> the president has made a commitment that this administration will not raise taxes on people making less than $40,000 a year, so that rules out. ritika: buttigieg spoke to kevin cirilli. andrew cuomo has gone from being called america's governor to facing multiple scandals. he now faces an investigation over allegations of sexual harassment. he has also been hurt by revelation his administration hid the number of people who died from the coronavirus in nursing homes. netflix and walt disney were the big winners at last night's golden globe awards. disney grabs the top award for best dramatic picture for nomadland. netflix especially dominated in television with the crown and the queen's gambit. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700

journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have to get away from that train of thought for the following reason. the only way you really and know the difference between vaccines -- you really know the facts -- difference between vaccines is comparing them head-to-head. jonathan: anthony fatty there speaking on abc's "this week -- anthony fauci there speaking on abc "this week." a bounce back to one point 7 million doses per day and ministered in the last week and j&j now in the mix as well. here is your price action. we look like this on the s&p 500. up wonderful tented point -- up one full percentage point. yields up by three or four basis points. euro-dollar down a third of 1%.

tom: 25.17 is not normalcy within the recent 70 days but it is pretty good, don't you think? jonathan: i agree. tom: we will see how it gets open. europe trading nicely. right now, as jon mentioned, on the pandemic, it is good news. jennifer draws us from johns hopkins. she is particularly good at the epidemiology of all this and trends of epidemiology. i see a linear trend in deaths, a linear trend in hospitalizations. where is your to point on that trend? -- tip point on that trend? >> nobody going to the hospital and nobody dying. we are not there yet but we are getting close. these vaccines arched ordinary and we have been quite lucky to have three vaccines that are going to be able to keep people

out of the hospital and keep people from dying. we should see that in the coming months. the limiting step is getting them into arms. tom: 4000 deaths and one series i looked at, 2000 deaths and even better statistics. what is the significance of getting to the next thousand? what does that mean for american society? dr. nuzzo: it is extraordinary. 950 deaths is too much still, but it is extraordinary, given where we were, which is one day we surged past 5000 deaths. it is important to look back and remember how bad it had been but also recognize we still have a long road ahead of us. it will start to get slower in terms of the reduction in deaths because one of the things we did was cover the groups that were most likely to die, like nursing home patients, which account for a third of deaths. that quick progress is important, but that pace will not probably last for all of it.

lisa: yesterday anthony found she said he expects school age children will start to be back -- dr. anthony fauci said he expects school age children will start to be vaccinated next year. can we get to herd immunity before children start to be vaccinated? dr. nuzzo: herd immunity is a complicated topic. it depends on where you live, how much vaccine has been rolled out, and how much people interact with each other. i am not confident that we will see a sustained decline in cases before we see that happen. we know kids can get the virus, spread it, but not as well as adults. by fall things should look better than now. lisa: dr. fauci pushback on the all clear that seemed to beginning consensus, that if you get a vaccine you will not be able to spread the virus. he seems to say we do not know that for sure. you still could what do you think, given data we have heard? dr. nuzzo: we have heard some

data that makes me optimistic that we will see a reduction in transmission. i do not think we can say we have seen that with a lot of the data we have so far, that it will complete lee prevent transmission, but reduction in transmission is a win as far as i'm concerned. we've already defanged the virus. if we can also reduce cases, that would be great. tom: it is interesting here, the optimism of dr. nuzzo. the gap has never been wider. jonathan: in the euro zone, they have struggled to roll out this vaccine. a lot of people worried about supply can we park the worry now -- about supply. can we park the worry now? it feels like supply is not going to be an issue in this country. dr. nuzzo: people like me in a priority group can get it.

i am hopeful for the future. how do we actually get into arms? also, people may not want the vaccine and should get it because they are vulnerable. we still have challenges, but overall it is looking better than where we were this time last year. jonathan: they hold up, do you see it as logistical or acceptance? dr. nuzzo: we are going to deal with both for a while. the predominant challenge is logistical right now. not enough vaccinators and not an effect scenes. we will have to think about the vaccinators. willingness to get it has always been an issue. as demand is able to be met more greatly, we will see more prominently the hesitation issue that we will need to address. tom: we appreciate -- jonathan: we appreciate your ongoing contribution. thank you. the numbers are better in

america, the cases, deaths better, vaccinations better. we are trending on a series of fronts in the right direction. tom: i take issue with those looking at other countries. we spoke with the israeli health minister last week. that was a constructive conversation. the size and mass of america gets you where president biden and president trump have been, which is this has been a success given 300 billion people. jonathan: it has become not a supply issue. now they are struggling to get it into arms. two big issues playing out in europe, except as being another one -- acceptance being another one. tom: that is a social part. i'm saying to everyone i run into, are you being vaccinated? some people are afraid, but i get a sense even that trend is improving. jonathan: you have been vaccinated. lisa, this raises the big

question is the year grows older. what do you have to do after you have been vaccinated? dr. fauci is still not convinced about whether you can pass on the virus if you have been vaccinated. lisa: there has been encouraging information out of the united kingdom and israel, but we still do not know guaranty does not want to sound the all clear and exacerbate the pandemic. i want to mention the saturday night live sketch about the vaccine and how confusing it is in terms of who is eligible in which state. do you get the vaccine in the same arm or use different arms? tom: i got it in the same arm because they had to hold my right hand. lisa: you cannot handle it? you get the white glove service. jonathan: sometimes this progress -- program is so off the rails. tom: you go down the flames on

the cfa and butterflies. the butterflies the thing to watch right now -- butterfly is the thing to watch right now. they are flying north from mexico. jonathan: you can tell us more about that in a moment. it got crazy. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> the market is pushing the fed as to whether or not he will be able to hold the line. >> how far further this goes, i think that is the question. >> the u.s. economy is going to come rolling back. > consumer confidence is going to come back, and there will be spending. >> that is good for the reflation trade. that is good for the cyclical trade, and that is where we want to be. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the bid is back in the equity market. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up 36. we advance about 1.4%. tom: we've got a lot of said talk -- a lot