>> weenie rate -- we need rates to keep rising. >> when things are really ripping from a growth or inflation perspective, you can take it for granted. >> this value trade is still relatively new. >> there is still plenty of scope for fiscal stimulus, and it looks like we are going to get it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: seemingly everybody getting moved up. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down 11 on the s&p, -0.3%. increasingly i feel like we are going to have this conversation around u.s. exceptionalism for a while now. tom: it is very lonely, the

success of the united states and all of the medicine we heard from dr. adalja of johns hopkins a moment ago. the tape at 6:00 was grim, and it has simply gotten better here as we try to digest that hughes -- that huge move in the dow yesterday. jonathan: i will push aside that down move. a big session. tom: the russell 2000 moving as well. jonathan: they all are. the compare and contrast between the united states and the rest of the road right and was fascinating. europe struggling to roll out this vaccine. early bad news, and not just about the supply. it is now about the acceptance of the astrazeneca vaccine in the population. in china, pushback from the regulator about bubbles. then the you have the u.s., pedal to the metal. tom: overnight, ed morse

publishing new ranges on oil, but is a range about idea? i don't think ranges are a bad idea right now. lisa: there has been a theme where generally, when you have a global resurgence, you have a weaker dollar. this time, can we have ongoing strength in risk assets with a strengthening dollar based on that exceptionalism you are talking about? the dollar can still weaken, but people are going into the u.s. because of that strength people are seeing. jonathan:, everyone -- coming into this year, everyone was talked about synchronized global growth, small caps, mid-caps and international. right now, i just don't see it. tom: that it's a really good point. the institutional play is clearly on small-cap and may be international, but the distinction here is the medicine.

the greatest disparity on march 2 is the medical stories out of the united states versus paris, jakarta, berlin, on and on. jonathan: couldn't agree more. good morning to you all. the equity market looks something like this. on the s&p 500, pulling back 10 points, down 0.2 5%. in the bond market, yields are higher, the curve is steeper. on the 10 year maturity, 1.44%. lisa: people are looking to that growth, do some sort of action in d.c. today you are going to be hearing from gary gensler in front of the senate banking committee to potentially become the sec chair. very interested to see what he has to say about the gamestops of the world, the robinhood trading, and the froth people have been talking about. also today, the fed speak continues, the drumroll before the thursday jay powell

presentation. today we've got lael brainard and mary daly speaking. very interested in what they have to say about some of the turmoil. lael brainard had some interesting things yesterday to talk about, some possible ongoing rico operation to come. some liquidity concerns in the repo market. at 1:00 p.m., joe biden will participate in a virtual lunch with senate democrats as the democrats try to get that $1.9 trillion stimulus bill passed by march 15. jonathan: thank you. let's turn to our guest, peter tchir, academy securities head of macro strategy. there was some negative connotation attached to being optimistic because everything was so negative. it was uncomfortable to be long. you are still long constructive. why? peter: i am, but it is more down

to what is going to benefit from infrastructure, from resumption of travel. i am pulling back from really significant pullback in the frothy end. it is a little more of a mixed bag looking at my portfolio. i have also been pulling out of europe and the rest of the world. they are just not getting it. tom: the two-year yield last thursday in this crisis was a 5.1 standard deviation move. clearly that is catharsis. is that so isolated it doesn't matter? do you see that emotion that means a trend change? peter: i think people got it wrong. it definitely was concerning where we saw yield, but i do believe this fed is extremely committed to not hiking. they are going to try to drive unemployment down to sub 3%. they want everyone back to work. using the calculus of what the fed used to behave like is going to lead to wrong decisions at

the front end of the yield curve, so look for that to stay committed to know hikes, and that is going to keep that -- committed to no hikes, and that is going to keep the front end stable. lisa: let's go to where you think there is going to be some catharsis. you said there could be significant pullback in frothy areas. talk to us about what that looked like. peter: for lack of a better word, it is some of those archetype stocks you mentioned earlier. there's been an accumulation of stocks. it is becoming very concentrated who owns them. you have seen a couple of times last week where you get these little cracks, and you get outflows with the selling pressure, the move is very traumatic. -- very dramatic. jonathan: you said something really important, they are just not getting it. do you think other investors are "getting it>" when you look at what is happening -- are "getting it?"

it is hard to reconcile what is going on in the ground in these countries. peter: i am increasingly worried about europe not getting it, and also emerging markets. emerging markets have benefited greatly from this run-up in commodities, but they seem to be struggling with how to deal with covid, how to get past this, so i do see separation with the u.s. and the ongoing friction between the u.s. and china, and i think that is really going to impact both europe and emerging markets. i am worried about where those are in terms of valuations. does that shake where you are long in the united states? peter: definitely. i completely think we are going to get infrastructure spending. i think we are going to get 5g built up in the inner cities. i think we are going to do some interesting things that lets that infrastructure spending really be dramatic. i think the spending will be more focused than if just congress does the appropriations. i'm excited for that. anything that is going to be

bridge and tunnel building should be good as well. tom: you channel" the beverly hillbillies -- you channel "the preferred legal beliefs -- you channel "the beverly hillbillies" in your research note. peter: there was a fund that really resonated with me into thousand -- with me in 2008. as money kept coming in, that fund did very well. there was bearish sentiment. people kept getting squeezed, and it kept going higher and higher, and when it turned, it went very quickly. that is what concerns me about some of these are type investments. you see some of these patterns, and that is where i see that froth. tom: it basically comes into hydrocarbons within the high-yield space. lisa: there definitely is concern, and something peter was talking about, this idea of the concentration in the names, and ark investments has about 10%

concentration and i believe about 20 men companies. aside from small bubbles that burst, is there a way to play this? whether it is sorting, using some instrument, or staying away from certain indexes? peter: in the nasdaq 100, there's more exposure there. i like the russell. i like sub-indices, things that are going to benefit from this infrastructure spending. the things that have lagged. anything that is not 5% above where it was in january of last year deserves a second look. anything 50% above where it was january of last year probably deserves a second look the other direction. lisa: i know you have an expertise in credit, and i do want to get your view on what we have seen with was back to the rise in interest rates. i have been wondering, at what point, with treasury yields rising, is it a concern for you with credit worthiness? peter: i'm actually not worried

about it. this could be very help for -- a healthy for the credit markets. they issued is much long they did that as they possibly could get away with because of those low yields. you don't have a lot of rolloff, and i think companies in general are going to become but -- are going to be comfortable having that rolloff. i think companies did a good job of capturing low yields, so i think we are going to see a dramatic drop-off in investment grade and high-yield new issuance, especially investment grade. that is going to be very supportive. if more companies do need to borrow, i get more concerned, but they did a good job last year managing the balance sheet. jonathan: we have had some monster supply over the last 12 months. good to see you, sir. peter tchir, academy securities head of macro strategy. we are down by seven points on the s&p. tom: the tape definitely has a bid to it. megan fitzgerald just channeled

jon ferro. she is a professor at columbia health. she shows a chart of europe which is basically united kingdom, turkey, may be germany getting the vaccination story done, and everybody else just a colossal failure. so many of our viewers and listeners don't understand the massive failure in europe and what that means for a financial system. jonathan: that started later, and the gap is not closing. you compare that to the u.k., who have focused on one shot, one dose, 30.4% of the population has had at least one shot in the u.k. in the united states, numbers are great, too. 15% one-shot, almost 8% fully vaccinated. tom: let's go back to bill gross years ago. it was about whoever the locomotive was, and the assumption that cars were behind it.

are there any cars behind you locomotive? jonathan: i remember the crisis last time, and the u.s. decoupling from the rest of europe. europe is not looking good coming out of another crisis. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures are negative, down seven on the s&p, off 0.2%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it is chuck schumer's first big test as senate majority leader. the chamber takes up president biden's relief package this week. there are still tensions between the democratic party's moderate and progressive factions. schumer says he wants to bring the bill to the floor by the middle of the week. the biden adminstration is set to impose sanctions on russia over its treatment of opposition politician alexei navalny. russian authorities have been widely blamed for the near fatal

poisoning of navalny. after he returned from treatment in germany, he was put in jail. sanctions could be imposed as early as today. the american father and son team accused of arcus trading carlos ghosn's escape from japan have been indicted in tokyo. he was smuggled out in a large black box as he fled criminal charges. they could receive a three year prison sentence if convicted. a new study says that dublin is the favorite location for finance jobs after brexit. according to et, three doesn't -- to ey, three dozen firms are considering moving locations to the irish capital or considering do so. target posted comparable sales for the fourth quarter that beat estimates. earnings were also higher than expected. meanwhile, target's digital

sales made up 22% of the total, versus 12% a year ago. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. now that's simple, easy, awesome. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today.

vp harris: from high-speed rail to high-speed internet, right now we have the opportunity,

there i say the imperative to strengthen infrastructure in our cities and create good union jobs. think of small businesses. cities are incubators for startups and small mom-and-pop shops. these create jobs and foster community. jonathan: vice president kamala harris speaking at the bloomberg citylab's summit. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. counting you down to the opening bell, about two hours and 12 minutes away. we improve by the minute at the moment. we are down seven on the s&p. tom: improving. jonathan: it gets better, tom. yields are up on the 10 year, 1.44%, after the biggest one-day pop going all the way back to june of last year. the story just a little bit softer, but improving as we count everybody down to payrolls friday this friday. tom: what we are going to do right now is what we do on "bloomberg surveillance" on radio and television.

when there is something important, we stop and we cover it. we do that with our kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. if you have fear of your wealth, this is the conversation of the day, if not the week. kevin cirilli with the senator from massachusetts tonight on "sound on." i really want to go over this right now. here's the bankruptcy law true expert. she's written 11 books. she is at the fulcrum of going after wealth in america. let's start with the by. why -- with the why. why is senator warren going after the wealthy? kevin: income inequality. i have covered her since her freshman year on the senate banking committee, when she was able to advance then chairwoman, now treasury secretary janet yellen. at that time, her influence was really questioned. but in the past decade, her clout has risen not just within

the democratic party, but within presidential politics. she was a dominant force during the last presidential cycle, and now at a time in which many of her ideology is now at the forefront of an inter-policy debate, and the senate this week on some millis -- debate in the senate this week on stimulus. tom: how does it play in west virginia with senator manchin? kevin: on energy policy, not too well, but on economic policy, pretty well. she is representing folks around the country that have not been able to work, and for democrats, they support her policies of let's tax the wealthy if we can't get a $1400 stimulus check fast enough. this is a really fascinating moment in the history of senator warren's tenure as an american politician this week.

it really comes at a time in which the politicians who wrote -- who rode in her lane have been calling on progressives like senator sanders, like senator warren to take an aggressive approach on these stimulus negotiations. lisa: we are talking a lot about this wealth tax senator warren proposed yesterday. we talked with greg valliere of agf investments after this came out, and he said the chances of this passing work basically 0%. that said, is there some iteration of this sort of wealth tax that you could see making it into the mainstream of the democratic party based on the clout that senator warren has and the inclinations of the other senators and congress members? kevin: exactly right. the nuances of this, i would agree with greg that is a very slim chance of passing in the short-term, but this is injected into democratic policy debate.

as a result, when we are talking about things like infrastructure over the next six to nine months, talking about potential ways to pay for it, taxes comes to the forefront of that conversation. tom: what is so important here is to compare and contrast with jeremy corbyn in the united kingdom. people try to make that allusion here. do you see that linkage? jonathan: corbyn who? totally failed. senator warren is polarizing. you want to be aggressive in a senate with a 50-50 split? how does that work? kevin: exactly. to that point, her and senator sanders have all of the control of the progressive movement of the democratic party. they know this. they understand this, and they know that this narrow majority that they have by just the tie-breaking vote in vice president harris is really the cards they have to play on the table. stimulus could still very much

pass, but it is the debates in the future that we have been talking about for the past several weeks here and the impact that senator manchin and senator warren, from two very different parts of the party, that they have. who is going to get the upper hand? whoever does is going to have a deciding force in the midterm election. jonathan: is it about making policy or personal political ambition? kevin: it is both. we talk about the republicans feeling bullish in the house of her presented. us for. 2022 senator warren -- of representatives for 2022. senator warren feels optimistic about expanding in 2022. the democrats are going to be putting pressure on centrists, and they are going to be saying, look, if you double down on progressive policy in arizona or west virginia or in montana, than they would have been able to expand the majority. i am just telling you what they are going to be saying. tom: but maybe they are saying

this, because i see it in a lot of research out there. our warren and the liberals going to give away the house? are they going to cost seven seats so that nancy pelosi is the minority leader? kevin: they are going to say are the centrists in the house going to give away the senate because they feel they can expand their majority in the senate. there has been a lot of attention on the house of representatives as a result of former from speaking at cpac, but democrats are very bullish on what they see as an expensive map in the senate. jonathan: final question. i don't think this is anyone's base case whatsoever. what are the chances, from your reporting, that we don't get this $1.9 trillion bill passed? kevin: you could see some last-minute hijinks, but i think ultimately, the stimulus will get on. we had to continuously report on delay, but there's an understanding that this is

important. republicans still agree there should be hundreds of billions of dollars worth of stimulus. everyone is in agreement there need to be more stimulus. tom: do you see how he answered your question, but he didn't answer my question? kevin: i answered your question. tom: you did not. you didn't talk about the house. you talked about the senate. kevin: republicans have a good shot of winning the house in 2022. jonathan: he's answered it. kevin, good to see you. [laughter] kevin cirilli, chief washington correspondent, host of "bloomberg sound on" on bloomberg radio, weekdays at 5:00. we have been really focusing on division and the democratic party, and that is where the focus will be in the weeks to come. tom: there's a lot more discussion. i don't see how you get from 1.9 trillion dollars down to $1.4 trillion. i don't see that conversation happening. jonathan: difficult. senator warren coming up on bloomberg later today with kevin cirilli. looking forward to that.

from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. with equity futures recovering, we are down five on the s&p, off by a little more than 0.1%. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you maintain comfortable, correct form.

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♪ jonathan: from new york cityjonathan:, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. futures coming in, recovering just a little bit as the session goes on. we are down by five on the s&p, down 0.1% after the biggest day of gains since june of last year. u.s. exceptionalism, is that going to be the story going forward? europe not looking good. the vaccine rollout struggling. supply was the issue. now it is acceptance. we will speak to stephen gallo in a moment. what happened to the global secret has growth story? breaking down just a little bit. out of china, copper has ripped this year, but we have talked

about this through the morning. the regulators pushing back just a little bit. two, china's credit impulse rolling over just a little bit. yet this trade is hanging in there. copper on the month up. by over 18% at what point do you start -- up by over 18%. at what point do you think about the global growth story breaking down? tom: it is certainly the store today with the improving tape we have seen the last hour. you come off 600 dow points yesterday, and go now what. we pulled back, but we have had a good 90 minutes. jonathan: i agree, tom. and of course, payrolls friday just around the corner. let's get you some movers. here's romaine bostick. guy: if you look at --romaine: if you look at yesterday's action, the volume was down about 20% from friday's close, may be about 10% or more from that three-month average. that gives you a sign of why we are seeing softness this morning. some of the individual stories,

target did provide earnings. they did not provide guidance. comp sales came in above what the street was looking for. the concern is that target is not really confident enough to provide any guidance. that is probably why you're not seeing more pop in the shares. kohl's did provide guidance going forward. they said look for revenue growth in the mid teens. that seems to give people a little bit of comfort. a lot of comfort here presume -- here for zoom. about 400% growth on some of the key revenue metrics. the key issue is they did provide guidance. guidance is pretty good. 150% revenue growth for the current quarter, well above what the street was looking for. tom: i will to go to you on this -- i want to go to you on this. i think it is important. do you see whether it is the media area, or it is like zoom

that this whole thing has legs, that it keeps going after the pandemic? romaine: the consensus seems to be it does have legs. we have heard from analysts that a lot of these companies that have benefited from the pandemic benefited not just from some kind of transitory change in our behavior come about from more structural changes. a lot of folks are going to be comfortable doing their meetings by zoom, whether it is for work or communicating with their loved ones versus doing it the old-fashioned way, which might have been just calling them up on the phone. these are structural shifts definitely benefiting zoom. you have seen a lot of work from home stocks rallying on the back of this. the growth is definitely an encouraging sign. just a few other quick names here. reports of the electric carmaker neo were not good. that is dragging other folks down in the space. roku actually buying meals

advanced advertising -- buying nielsen advanced advertising business. this is a huge move. this software it is buying a sickly gives that the ability to better track how you engage with that when you see one of those ads pop up on your screen. do you click on it, or just scroll through and watch the next episode of "bridgerton?" this morning, they announced they would sell about $1 billion in shares. tom: can i get "ninety-day fiance" on roku? romaine: that is going to be on discovery+. lisa: both of you watch that? tom: and jon. jonathan: after the tots game. jonathan: that is what tom likes, "bridgerton," "90 day

fiance," "love island." tom: stephen gallo is with us now. what a love about your note is the granularity. what have you seen in the foreign exchange market? stephen: i don't think we can talk about anything without mentioning the backup and u.s. rates. particularly in view of the huge run-up in debt we have seen, both before coronavirus and then during the pandemic as well. the impact at the backup and rates has had on risk appetite, and therefore to a degree fx, is what i would probably call something like service ruptures. they speak to the instability of the global system because it is dollar-based, and the huge run-up in debt. for the dollar down trend, there are basically three components. there's a risk appetite component, a global growth

component -- in other words, global growth vis-a-vis the united states -- and then a u.s. workflow component. . the u.s. course flow component is one of the reasons the dollar isn't higher now. but the risk appetite component and global growth component in the context of the backup in yields and what it means for both united states and those fractures i talked about, that is where we have been running into headwinds for the dollar downtrend. jonathan: let's talk about that. the youth inc. it starts to bite into the dollar shorts we saw -- do you think it starts to bite into the dollar shorts we saw coming into the new year? stephen: it has done so in the sense that it prompted fewer investors to short the dollar and prompted some clearing out the pre-existing short positions , so we have effectively paused. just to put a few numbers to it, this time into q4 of 2020, the dollar was 3.5%, 4% lower.

right now the dollar is 1.5% higher. same period into q1 of 2021. we are waiting for more information. jonathan: let's talk about how to approach g10. a couple of buckets to talk of. one is the commodity currency. the other is low yield or's as well. how do you approach the two separate buckets with ngt old -- within g10? stephen: as it is with almost any cycle, particularly an economic upturn, the commodity box currencies within g10 are associated with things and they export things that are real, that the world needs, that have tangible value, and they are relatively scarce. if it is copper in australia, energy in exporting-based economies or oil in australia, these are real things that have real value, and they are relatively scarce. i think those currencies within g10 are poised to do relatively

well compared with, for example, the euro, where i think we are probably in the early stages of a growth divergence story there that is beginning to blossom. initially, that is how i would break it down. lisa: i am trying to wrap my head around what we are seeing in europe. jon has been talking about how they have lagged behind with the vaccinations and recovery. this idea that global synchronized growth or any kind of recovery hinges on a weaker dollar, particularly the commodity story you are talking about with some of these commodity exporting nations. how do we get to a weaker dollar if the u.s. is leading the growth? stephen: it is more difficult. particularly more difficult when the euro is such an enormous size of the trade-weighted dollar basket. the euro is liquid enough to be an alternative to the dollar, but time and time again, you see officials and other european union policymakers tell us that they don't want a strong euro.

that is having their cake in policymaking, but that is this -- but that is what they are telling us. they are going to make it harder to sell into their market, the single market, so that is a trade balance story for the euro zone, but also a growth story vis-a-vis the united states. based on what we have seen over the last few months in terms of the direction things are going, it looks like it is going to be more regulation, much higher taxes, and very slow growth for some time to come in the european union. lisa: so what does that mean in terms of the euro going forward? i know we have been talking about this, but just how much our people offsides with the trades you are expecting? stephen: i would think the long

euro-dollar trade is reasonably crowded area i don't think the positioning in nominal terms is as it has been another cycles. for example, if you are looking at three year average or three year maximum long your positions , it is reasonably crowded, though not huge. you are raising important points because this is one of the things that dollar bears were counting on, which is that the euro would function as a clean or smooth alternative to the u.s. dollar. time and time again, it simply can't do that. jonathan: love catching up. always good to see you. stephen gallo there, bmo capital markets head of u.s euro -- capital markets head of european fx. tom: i would notice the vix now trading below the good side of where it was yesterday during that huge move. it is a 22.99 vix right on

script. that is a really important signal this morning. jonathan: thanks starting to improve. is it to her richly -- is it too early to do the estimates on payrolls? i mentioned it yesterday and you both said yes. lisa: you did them anyway. [laughter] jonathan: the high is 410,000. the low is 135,000. tom: they just confirmed that this morning. i don't have any strong conviction here other than i am really going to watch adp tomorrow. jonathan: median, 188,000. you let me do it. i did it. we are all friends. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: we are friends. a 600 dell point move, and we are friends. jonathan: coming up, and exclusive conversation with jamie dimon. tom: jimmy notices the dow going up. jonathan: and whether it is in" did measure of the equity market. lisa: that is not what he is going to be talking about. jonathan: more on that, coming

up on the program. i am not even going to quote it. [laughter] the s&p 500 down almost 10. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. vaccination campaign has regained the momentum it lost in those severe weather last month. it posted three consecutive days of 200 shots are more. it recently authorized -- the recently authorized johnson & johnson vaccine is being added to the mix. president biden's pick to head the securities and exchange commission gary gensler goes before the senate today. timing is perfect. the stock market drama has many calling for more regulation of wall street. gensler was chairman of the commodities futures trading commission during the obama administration.

in china, president xi jinping wants to mobilize the country for a tech revolution to reduce its dependence on the west. communist party leaders will approve a five-year policy blueprint aimed at cutting china's reliance on other countries for components such as computer chips. meanwhile, beijing will make bets on technologies such as hydrogen vehicles. hertz has received an offer to buy the comedy out of bankruptcy. the price of the rental car company could be as much as $4.2 billion. the sum would but -- would depend on existing buyers' desire to take part in the financing. earlier, nike said the executive was not violating the company policy.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance" for our audience worldwide.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures recovering. futures down just three points, off by not even 0.1% after a really big day of gains. in the bond market, yields higher by a couple of basis points to 1.44%. euro-dollar off by about 0.1%. tom: again, the vix comes in. jonathan: the tape improves. the outlook it's better in the last 24 hours, based on what we have seen on the vaccine front. tom: stay with us on radio and tv through the morning. we will have a lot more on this, particularly with what we saw yesterday. he's the offspring of greek immigrants. he went to tufts university and wrote an essay on shearson way before it was shearson lehman. thus began the banking career of one james dimon of jp morgan, their chairman and chief executive officer. jamie dimon went from bank one out of the midwest to commanding

fortress dimon at j.p. morgan. here he is on covid. >> we are still in it, the god knows what it looks like at the end of the tunnel by the end of the summer or something like that. it is not a binary subject. democrats and republicans are like ships passing in the night. there is legitimate complains about stuff and this bill that have nothing to do with covid. there are a lot of people who need legitimate help. both of those are true. the unemployed definitely need help. small business is definitely need help. women who had to go take care, they definitely need help. i don't know if you know this, but half the states' revenues went up, not down. do they need help? there should be questions about overdoing it. yet us through the problem, get the country going, but try not to overdo it too much. >> but isn't the risk that if

you have places and states, people that don't need help getting the help, you create this huge risk of inflation? >> and the system already has a little of that. the system looks to us like $1 trillion unspent, so there will be money. there's a very good chance you will have a gangbusters economy for the rest of this year and easily into 2022. the question is, does that overheat everything? we just don't know that yet. i wouldn't worry too much about it. i worry more about covid and nuclear war than i worry about that, but i would suspect there's a pretty good chance you are going to see rates going up, and people start to worry about that at one point. i've been very clear, i would not buy 10 year treasuries, just so you know. >> on covid, we are obviously doing this interview in person, which is fantastic. where doing it in your offices in new york, still largely empty

, as are a lot of offices. how important is it to a business like j.p. morgan to have people coming physically back to work? >> it is very important. a certain amount of people work from home permanently. you can track the productivity, etc. i think there will be a large -- a large portion who permanently work in the office. there will be some hybrids come over you spend it we get home, we can the office, or two days, three days. there are huge witnesses to the zoom world. most of us learned by an apprenticeship system, so it is hard to have culture and character and all of those things when you have a zoom world. spontaneous combustion goes away . it is hard to be very critical. you've got 15 people on the screen. before, it was like a deep dive

question. i took a trip to california and met 100 people, all outside, breakfast, lunch and dinner. it is amazing how much you learn about your clients, your products, you learn about technology and systems. you are not going to do that in the zoom world. so bankers' relationships, i think it is hard to develop a deeper relationship on the zoom world. people like me will travel just as much as they did in the past. >> if and when the vaccine becomes available for your vaccine, will you make it -- for your workforce, will you make it mandatory for your staff? >> we want people to take it. you certainly can't make it mandatory before it is fully accessible, so that question can't even be entered until june, but i do think you may see some companies do it. i can see an airline or a hotel company doing it. can -- i can see people

doing it. i would say it is not mandatory. jonathan: jamie dimon, jp morgan chair and ceo, slipped that in very subtly. i wouldn't buy treasuries here. tom: let's go to our world on this. they did some promotions and movement yesterday. joyce chang, bruce because men will stay on at j.p. morgan research -- bruce kaz men -- bruce kasman will stay on it. jonathan: he's in the same camp as his boss. he will buy treasuries here, switching back to that story. what a shock. i'm sure he is buying treasuries somewhere, but you get the picture. tom: that's what james dimon

wants. let's be honest, it's the best conference call on the street. to me, what is so important here is the scale of jp morgan. what do they do with a 6% economy? the cash they are going to throw off, where does that go? they are going to buy the palace on park avenue, or they are going to build the palace on park avenue. you will be the first out of the door, i'm sure. lisa: something like that. it really benefits the banks when the yields go higher. jamie dimon perhaps is not the best prognosticator on treasury yields back in 2018. he did say, he predicted that treasury yields ought to be 4%, so he has been calling for this for a while. jonathan: did he say it was a possibility? lisa: it was a possibility. you could say that. you can say whatever you want. but there's a difference between higher treasury yields that are 1.75% and 5%. tom: lisa, they are watching

this. we are never going to talk to jamie dimon. jonathan: i don't think he cares about what we've got to say. stocks up 18% and the outlook is getting better. the fact that we are talking about the zoom world with the word zoom, zoom won, and they are going to win again, looking at the guidance for this year. tom: it is like a war, frankly, the difference between the united states in autumn of 1941 versus where we were in 1946. why is this any different? lisa: how much more adoption can there possibly be? i do we have some serious zoom fatigue going on. jonathan: these guys on wall street want to see their clients again. i don't think that goes away. tom: the dividend is 2.4% on jp morgan. it is trading like an electric utility. jonathan: and capital returns are huge. that is part of the trade, isn't

it? coming up, david coston, goldman sachs -- david kostin, goldman sachs chief u.s. equity strategist. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

>> it was definitely concerning to me where we saw yields, but i do believe this fit is extremely committed asked this fed is extremely committed -- this fed is extremely committed to not hiking. >> when things are really ripping from growth or inflation perspective, you can't take things for granted. >> i think we will go at a notably faster pace than what we saw on the last cycle. >> there's plenty of scope for more fiscal stimulus, and it looks like we are going to get it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: