>> it was definitely concerning to me where we saw yields, but i do believe this fit is extremely committed asked this fed is extremely committed -- this fed is extremely committed to not hiking. >> when things are really ripping from growth or inflation perspective, you can't take things for granted. >> i think we will go at a notably faster pace than what we saw on the last cycle. >> there's plenty of scope for more fiscal stimulus, and it looks like we are going to get it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

"bloomberg surveillance." on radio, on television, a simulcast in this important data clock hour for wall street. we saw tom porcelli -- important 8:00 hour for the wall street. we saw tom porcelli there. jonathan: the median is still just south of 200,000, but the outlook gets better. the j&j one-shot vaccine. things are getting better. tom: i'm glad you mention the ism because i forgot that. that into the jobs report and you end up resetting. do you perceive that the different equity houses will have to reset? jonathan: i think they already reset at the back of last year, and people have been surprised. the big debate is not the next double story. it is what people think happens

beneath. that is why you got the likes of morgan stanley on 3900 on the s&p 500, but with this huge turn in the equity market really starting to rip. tom: some of that is the rotation, particularly into the international area. china overnight with a little bit of weight to the optimism. lisa: saying if they were concerned about bubbles, not only within the property sector, but also trying to tamp down some of the enthusiasm we have seen in rallies in the u.s. and even some european assets. i wonder how that folds into their growth prospects, and that really leads to what jon is talking about. how much can the global economic recovery -- recovery story take place without china? tom: the vix, i had a 22 print. critically come of the vix is in a better place than it was yesterday.

to me, that is an important sign. oil not give me much. maybe we will see a 59 on west texas intermediate -- a $59 on west texas intermediate. we are not there yet. david kostin is out of goldman sachs as they get out front of where people are going to be. he successfully did that a number of months ago, jon ferro mentioning the 4300 statistic. so much with their great call is the now what of it. jonathan: let's bring in david kostin now, goldman sachs chief u.s. equity strategist. do you stick with it? david: the answer is yes. from a tactical point of view, the companies that lost money last year but are actually recovering this year, that is the benefit of a tailwind for better economic activity. the vaccine, fiscal stimulus

that we anticipate that can get pass relatively soon. all of that benefits some of the cyclicals. that is not to say some of the tech heavy specular growth companies will not perform well, but just from a relative near-term perspective, probably cyclicals will lead the market. jonathan: it takes me straight to the mechanics of the benchmark come of the s&p 500. the overweight waiting of international technology -- overweight weighting of international technology and growth stocks. if that is the case, how do you get to the headline? david: 25% of the s&p 500 is technology, so that has certainly got to be a core part of the portfolio. you are getting very strong revenue growth from a lot of these companies. relative to pre-endemic profits from a prepend of sales and profits, the overall market is actually higher than it was this

time last year. that is an important statement. the economy, nominal and real basis, is still in squalor, but sales and earnings are back to where they were beforehand, back to the equity market about 15% higher than it was 12 months ago. looking forward as you just indicated, where is that growth likely to come? it is going to come in aggregate from technology, likely going to be some of the reopening of america. my colleagues in equity research have an index, the reopening of america index. tom, you will let like that title -- tom, you will like that title. the upside is as people get vaccinated, as the economy continues to recover, which is part of our forecast, that means you're getting more these companies, company level data will be reopening, and that is where the positive earnings provision is coming from. last month, the last three months, you've had 10 of the 11 sectors that i've had positive

earnings revisions. that in my view is what is leading the market higher. our forecast of $181 of earnings for this year is about 7% higher than consensus lisa: we think there's room -- than consensus. within there's room for upward earnings revisions. lisa: i am looking at the reopening america etf, which i am sure is coming to a store near you. i am curious about the underpinning of optimism in equity performance. is the idea that we are going to get gangbusters growth in tandem with relatively low benchmark borrowing costs for the united states, at what point do higher rates pose a problem to your thesis? david: that's the number one question we get from every client, which is about the relationship between rates and equities. i think you want to think about it two ways, both level and speed. level, not concerned about that right now. we had a 50 basis point backup phenomenal rate, led by a back in real yields as you know, so that still leaves equities

undervalued in the context of very low at the level of rates. so 1.5% round numbers. you could go to 2% on the 10-year treasury yield. you would only be back at the long-term average, relative valuation of equities versus bonds. that is if you want to do percent. that gives you a sense of the flex ability or capacity of rates that continue to go higher and equity prices still to be in a good position. on the other hand, the speed of the vaccine is some thing we are a little concerned about, and you saw it in the last month. bond yields go up by a significant amount. put that in context. very unusual swiftness and the magnitude of the backup, usually associated with headwinds, and i think that is why duration is the way to think about it. you want to have shorter duration equities. this goes back to jonathan's

question a minute ago, which is how is it cyclicals do better. they have shorter duration than the longer duration technology stocks. they approach equities through the lens of fixed income. tom: thank you for the two standard deviation view on fixed income. if short duration is cyclicals, does that mean apple and amazon and the rest of them are long-duration and to be avoided? david: they are longer durations, no question about that, in terms of expectations for faster growth. i would think of it as the barbell strategy. they are part of the tech sector . the semiconductors are expected to have 28% higher level of profits-- tom: tom: ok -- tom: ok, just because of time,

this is so important. if we get a 6%, 7% gdp bubble, is it just going to be one big share buybacks like we saw from intel from over a decade? david: we are two months into the year and we have had near record levels of authorization to approve -- [no audio] -- this year, so that is a reflect me to have their management. better cash flows. who had cash? but the biggest source of cash is individuals. you had about a $500 billion diminution reduction in money market mutual fund assets in the last several months. a lot of that is zero rates is going into equities, and a lot of it going to the stock market. you had 175 specs -- to the spac

market. you had 175 spac's this year alone. tom: are you going to do a spac with jan hatzius? is that what we are looking forward to? [laughter] jonathan: i thing mr. sullivan might have other ideas. david kostin, goldman sachs chief u.s. equity strategist. president biden will announce today -- for the johnson & johnson one-shot vaccine. tom: let's be direct, merck missed to this. they have a multi-decade heritage of vaccines led by the wonderful jordan douglas, and they flat out missed it. you wonder how this came together. jonathan: this administration trying to bring together corporate america to get it done. lisa: the pole is not -- the

pull is to get as much product into arms, and it is encouraging to me to think we will ramp up supplies in all areas and could possibly lean on worn hard provision -- on wartime provisions to do that. jonathan: as real rates increase, what does it hit? growth equities. particularly thursday, when years exploded. tom: mr. kostin is still very optimistic on tech, just looking at it over the horizon. this conversation of short or long equity duration, it is a little math-y, a little fixed income, but it is not talked about enough. jonathan: it is talked about in the bond market. tom: sure, every day. jonathan: shorter duration and higher yield. i think it is going to be a story through the much of this year. on the fixed income side, when you come back in, when you start

to like what you see at the long end again? we keep commenting on this. we want to year from pgim because they have been talking about this so much. lisa: they've been quiet. jonathan: we will get someone on. if you missed the show two hours ago, you don't get the jokes. tom: they watch every minute of it. they watch and listen for three hours. jonathan: heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: it is chuck schumer's first big test as senate majority leader. the chamber takes up president biden's relief package this week, and there are still tensions between the democratic party's moderate and progressive factions. schumer says he wants to bring the bill to the senate floor by the middle of the week. it is already passed in the house. the biden adminstration is set to impose russia over its treatment of a position -- of

opposition politician alexi navalny. russian authorities have been blamed for the near poisoning of mr. navalny, and after he returned from treatment, he was put in jail. the american father and son accused of orchestrating carlos ghosn's escape from japan have arrived in tokyo. the u.s. authorize the extradition -- the u.s. authorized the extradition. they could receive a three year prison sentence if convicted. a new study says that dublin is the favorite location for finance firms moving forward into the european union after brexit. some firms are considering moving u.k. operations to the irish capital or have already done so. luxembourg is second, followed by frankfurt. coles gave an upbeat -- kohl's gave an upbeat sales forecast.

it says it may ease pressure from a group of activist investors. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels.

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♪ >> i'm speaking to businesses in our district. i'm not hearing a sense of

overwhelming desire or intent to be escalating prices beyond normal levels, so i think we will see some pressure, but i do still expect the medium and long term for it to be moderate. jonathan: thomas parkin, federal reserve bank of richmond president. a week full of fed speak. get governor brainerd a little later, chair powell on thursday, ahead of payrolls friday. your estimate just south of 200,000. they are still comfortable with what the has in the bond market. your equity futures down by zero poin -- by five points, around 0.1 percent and unchanged. in foreign-exchange, euro-dollar $1.2077. just to round things out in the commodity market, crude is still positive, around a 61 handle on wti this morning. tom: i like how you handled that. to me, it it is really important that the vix has come in.

we had a 23 level yesterday, and we improved to a more quiet sent 22 level now on the vix -- more quiescent level now on the vix. right now we recalibrate to a controversial book out with the leadership of javier blas. our chief energy correspondent gives us the world for sale, a controversial book about the leadership of the commodity world, the commodity trading world, and how they control everything we take for granted. javier blas joins us. for all of us at bloomberg media, congratulations on this effort. what was the hardest part about writing "the world for sale?" javier: thank you so much, tom. i think the research was the hardest part, and convincing so many to speak on the record and talk candidly about how was trading 20, 30 years ago, and

how is trading today. tom: the market from 20 years ago today, to the question our listeners and viewers are asking, is the oil market r igged? javier: it is quite interesting how things are going, and it hasn't been a flavor of what happened 20 years ago. i don't think we have the same kind of situation, but certainly this market feels it has led, but opec is coming this week, and i think opec is going to be adding more to the market. i think probably it is going to stop the rally right in the low 60's where we are today. lisa: a lot of people are expecting opec to announce output increases, yet the question of the magnitude is what is pushing and pulling the

oil market today. some people talking about magnitudes are different. how are they lining up ahead of the thursday meeting? javier: i think the factions are very much the similar factions we have seen previously. given that saudi arabia was going to be not too quick to borrow into the market, you are going to have on the other side potentially the united states looking to add more value quickly to the market. ultimately it is putting more barriers into the market come the month of april. i think that the bond barriers come back into the market. as expected, that was a two-month production cuts. it is not expect it to continue longer at this time. one time is on top of the other. we are still inspecting there

will be a bit of oil, so probably more than enough to stop the running going to $70, but it is truly tough to keep oil above $60. lisa:'s demand picking up that much, or is this just supply getting taken down month after month after supply reductions? javier: we see inventories coming down every week in the united states and elsewhere, so demand is running ahead of supply, hence why inventories are coming down. is the money proving this a lot happening -- we had a bit of a slow down a few weeks later in china because of the chinese new lunar year. it seemed then we were seeing downsides starting to ease in the u.s. and europe. travel is picking up.

i am seeing every day in the u.s., we are beginning to see more people going through airports. this week, more than one million people going through tsa checkpoints in airports in the u.s.. so slowly, the demand is coming back. jonathan: tom deliberate italy -- tom deliberate italy choosing the word "rigged." for our audience on tv, look at this chart. 2011, glencore comes to market. the stock never got back to where it issued. the issue was always that ivan glasenberg knew his company better than anyone else, and when he was going to sell it, it was the top of this market. the research you have done, isn't that the story here, that these are the guys with the edge? and that if you are doing a deal with them, you might be on the wrong side of it? javier: i think you are right.

one thing of the ipo was how much the company was making. people knew that glencoe was making money, but the billions of dollars they were making, a lot of the counterparties, how is it you make so much money? if you look at the time of the ipo, they confessed to us that it was a shock for the counterparties how much money glencoe was making. these guys are the ones who have the best information of the market, so if you are trading with them, you know your counterparty has the best information. jonathan: do the golden years return for these guys, the golden years? -- the glory years? javier: returns are not going to be the same. the world is changing. you cannot trade the same way

these companies were trading in the 1980's. they face a big threat with climate change. at the end of the day, a lot of this company's strengths are all will, gas, coal. those commodities -- our oil, gas, coal. those commodities are facing tell and just with the climate change challenge. jonathan: thank you very much. javier blas, bloomberg reporter and author o "the world for sale." tom: this book is getting great reviews. jonathan: and timely, too.

the payrolls report is just around the corner. matt luzetti of deutsche bank will be joining us. for our audience worldwide, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

jonathan: relative to what we have seen, i guess you could call the stability. equity futures in .1%. on the nasdaq, off one point per -- off .1%. off of a massive session. inis -- increasingly we talk about decoupling. the divergence between the u.s. and europe. you feel that conversation started more given the vaccine rollout in america, given the data in america, given the stimulus effort in america. compare and contrast those points with what is happening in europe. euro-dollar breaking 1.20 briefly. for whatever my view is worth, i've been surprised how well the euro has held up in the face of what is going on, going on just

-- not just in the economy but also in the bond market. in the bond market, u.s. 10, italian 10, german 10. up a basis point on the day. italian 10 year up about four basis points in line with what is happening in america. where does the pushback come from? not the federal reserve. it comes from the ecb. another ecb official comment on the same thing. uncomfortable with the bond market because they are not as comfortable with what happened in that economy. compare and contrast on load of points between the u.s. and europe. tom: do we agree it has widened dramatically? jonathan: we can agreed is not narrowing. tom: no question about it. i would suggest on the vaccine front is a wider landscape. matt luzetti joins us, just brilliant with deutsche bank. they have been on fire. we are thrilled the chief u.s.

economist could share time with us. i want to go back quickly to vice-chairman clarida's speech where he says "robust demand." define robust demand into next year. matthew: no doubt in our mind we will have the robust demand the vice chair outline. we've recently upgraded our forecast. we expect to see a fiscal package, 1.6 trillion, 1.7 trillion. a few quarters of 8% plus growth as we head into next year. this is an economy that will be hit with a lot of fiscal stimulus at a time we are reopening and the vaccine rollout is going well and picking up. those forces coming together should lead to robust demand. tom: this is absolutely important that deutsche bank is out with a 7% or 8% handle. you talk about fine tuning after

you see the stimulus. in march, when you find tune, pin you perceive fine tuning up from 7.5%? matthew: we are definitely in a new world where fine tuning was upgrading our forecast from 6.3% to 7%. the numbers are so large. we will find out where the senate goes. it is possible it comes in closer to $1.9 trillion price tag president biden has outlined. those are more moderate risks around our view. the 7.5% is very robust growth. the unemployment rate at 4.2%. that is a sharp recovery relative to what we were expecting six months ago. jonathan: china is striving for stability. europe is struggling to get by. the united states is going for it, pledging to go big, do we start talking about america decoupling again? matthew: that narrative has

picked up steam. the fiscal story is an important one in the u.s., thinking about $5 trillion in aggregate of stimulus we have had since last year. that plus the vaccine rollout going positively, i think for the market perspective the question is how much of that is being priced in or not. over the past few weeks, at least from the rates market, from thinking about the fed, we had aggressive repricing. the market has brought forward rate hike expectations into early 2023 a lot of that is probably already being reflected, the optimism. jonathan: do you think the u.s. economy can't lead the global cycle or do we still look to china -- can -- do you think the u.s. economy can lead the global cycle or do we look to china for that? matthew: the nature of the recovery is different than typical dynamics around recessions.

services sector, the domestic economy, largely drove them decline and will largely drive the recovery. we had seen a pickup in good spending. has already normalized, housing has normalized. the lagging is the domestically oriented services sector. it is a different dynamic than we typically see around recession. lisa: talking about strange dynamics, i keep going to the inflation dynamics. you see inflation expectations over the next five years are the highest on record versus the inflation expectations over the next 10 years. the idea is it will surge up and prices will increase, and then the pace will normalized. can you talk about what we could be missing? making fun of me, john and tom, about trying to see around corners, but what corners can we see around when it comes to inflation continuing on the trajectory higher than people are expecting, or whether there

is a transition between the lower inflation regime is going to be smooth? matthew: over the coming months we will see sharp rises in year-over-year and nation. as chair powell has highlighted, we had historically week prices last year. mechanically you will see inflation rates rise. on top of that you're likely going to see some price pressures in the categories at the epicenter of the crisis. hotels, restaurants, those type of things. from that perspective, there is a sharp rise in the near term make sense. i think beyond that, we do expect moderation in inflation as our baseline expectation. the risks are skewed to the upside for the first time in a long time, and that is primarily due to regime shift. from the fiscal side, sending -- spending significantly is clearly a regime -- a regime shift from the fed perspective.

encouraging inflation to move higher. there is -- lisa: there is a question of whether the 1.9 trillion bill expected to pass and the follow-up infrastructure bill, is that enough to trigger inflation substantially higher than what is currently priced in? matthew: when you look back over history, it tended to be a complement of events that lead to higher inflation. if you look back at the mid-1950's, we did have a big fiscal package at that time. if you look at the fed during that time, there is a similarity as well. they thought they could keep pushing the unemployment rate lower and lower without inflation pressures. i would as their -- i would add there is a huge jump in medicare and medicaid inflation. you had the inflation expectation not well anchored which lead to a big surge. this time around you're getting the fiscal stimulus under reasonable views you could get

the output cap plus 4% by the end of this year. you do have a regime shift from the fed perspective. you have a few key elements, which are at least in our mind a shift in the risks around inflation to the upside rather than the downside. tom: this is fascinating. it is simple, with your number of seven, morgan stanley at 7.5%. if we get the optimism i am hearing from you to 8% plus is it and all boats rising american economy or is it still a two part of economy? matthew: that is a critical question from the fed perspective, especially because avenue they have gone through this policy review -- especially because as they have gone through this policy review they've talked about a broad-based objective. the employment to population ratio is not a sufficient

statistic from their perspective in thinking about the labor market. there i would highlight that although when we get to the pre-virus level of activity next quarter and the pre-virus level of gdp next year in terms of the pre-virus projection, we do not expect you get out of the 3.6, three point 5% unemployment rates until later next year. there will be a divergence are different between how quickly the demand side of the economy recovers, and it will take longer for the labor market. jonathan: i do not think we should gloss over what you just said. for decades we would say that is not a critical question for monetary policy and central-bank policy makers now we are saying it is a critical question for the federal reserve. then you've gone through a list of data points, not just unemployment but also employment to population where people are increasingly putting their attention. what is the metric if it goes beyond employment to population, if it goes beyond recovery, what

is the metric to look at? what guides the fed? matthew: at this point the answer is we don't know because we have not gotten great clarity from them. i noted chair powell and governor brainard did highlight the employment to population ratio. that has its own issues. there is structural decline -- as the population ages, there will be structural declines built into the employment to population ratio. we need to think about a new dashboard for the fed which is different from the dashboard we created under janet yellen fed prior to the covid crisis. it will include not just the aggregate statistics, but a lot of other distributional statistics and be a broader array of things we have to consider. jonathan: when you complete that study, bring it to us. matt luzetti, deutsche bank economist. for those who follow the atlanta fed gdp forecast, it has a 10

handle. tom: it is not that i have trouble with that series, but it is so far out in front. what we are beginning to frame is absolutely critical, starting with the huge turnaround on retail sales. we are starting to go chinese like gdp in an america that in no way, shape, or form, makes up the domestic fragility of china. jonathan: and a central bank increasingly focused on social justice, and that is a big change. we have to bring some bad news on the activism front. verna lee jordan, junior has died. tom: 85. what is so important is you are the only black guy ages ago. what is so important about vernon jordan is this is a guy who was early.

it is the when of vernon jordan. jonathan: sad news. vernon jordan has died, aged 85. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. president biden will announce what is being called a historic partnership in the fight against the coronavirus. according to the washington post, merck will help make johnson & johnson's new vaccine. that will be in unusual agreement between two fears rivals and could lead to a big increase in the supply of that vaccine. president biden's choice to head the securities and exchanges commission goes before a senate committee today. some might say that timing is

perfect. the stock market drama has been a calling for more regulation of wall street. he has experience as a market regulator during the financial crisis. he was a chairman of the commodities and futures trading commission during the obama administration. in china, president xi jinping wants to mobilize the country for a tech revolution to reduce its dependence on the west. at the annual meeting of china's legislature, communist party leaders will approve a five-year policy blueprint aimed at cutting china's reliance on other countries components such as computer chips. meanwhile beijing will make big bets on technologies such as hydrogen vehicles. macy's is tapping the junk bond market to capitalize on record low borrowing costs. the department store chain is selling $500 million of senior notes to help fund an offer of the same amount. macy's reported better-than-expected holiday sales and also predicted the pandemic pressures will ease later this year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700

journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> democrats and republicans are ships passing in the night.

there are legitimate complaints that have nothing to do with covid. there are lots of people suffering that need help. both are true. unemployed definitely need help. small businesses need help. people at the lower end need help your half of the states need help. we are just throwing money at people. they should be cautious about overdoing it. get the country rolling, but try not to overdo it. tom: to the banker jamie dimon speaking on fortress america, and certainly the news has been much better here on the pandemic . we see it in the markets. a big date yesterday and follow-through today, negative s&p. right now, barry ritholtz of bloomberg opinion and his wonderful longform conversation masters in business, i cannot say enough about this.

a conversation with one of the most misunderstood people on wall street, peter lynch of fidelity. barry, i want to go back to the time of magellan, 1977 to 1990, where peter lynch reinvented portfolio construction. he had the courage to overload on growthiness of fannie mae. at the time that was a revolution. barry: it certainly was. he took over magellan, it was a $20 million fund, not well-known , and for good reason. his approach was systematic and insightful. some funds have 60, 70, 80 different holdings in the stock. he ended up with a thousand. he would buy a broad cross-section of holdings and

then turn around and pare what was not working. it was a savvy way to do it. tom: he once said it a meeting, i do not care about your number one holding, i care about your 47th stock. where do security analysis fit into the method? barry: it is crucial. he is essentially the guy who invented growth at a reasonable price. understanding the business, understanding what is behind it, understanding the underlying data points is what he did. he said you have to flip over 10 rocks, 10 different companies. eight are probably fairly priced. one will be expensive, and one is interesting. the person who flips over the most rocks wins. he was all about doing the deep dive, doing the research, and identifying those companies that had growth potential.

lisa: we are talking about peter lynch because you named him the greatest long-term track record holding when it comes to stockpicking. it raises a question at a time when people are wondering the fundamental relationship of a company story with the stock rice in the era of gamestop and amc and fiscal stimulus. as the era of stockpicking been greatly diminished by some of the policy interventions we have seen? barry: let me reference bill miller as opposed to peter lynch on this particular question. it is not that the era of stockpicking has been diminished by the fed or anyone else. it is that the era of getting value for stockpicking, when many of the funds are just closet indexers, that is problematic. miller says we want an active share, we want to portfolio, if not concentrated, certainly not

hundreds of names so it looks like the index. you have to adapt whatever the circumstances are. if you go skiing, there are signs that say be aware of changing conditions, rocks, ice, snow, whatever. fund managers are the same. if the fed is taking rates to zero, you cannot just rail against that, you cannot tilt at windmills, you have to build that into your management process. if you do not, you will be very disappointed when the market took off in 2009 and 2010 and you were shaking your fist at it. that is not what people hire managers for. lisa: how does one determine whether a fund investment manager is a closet indexer or whether they are doing something different that can differentiate themselves and actually make them a stockpicking winner? barry: obviously the active

share is the biggest and easiest way to quantify that. if somebody's performance and holdings behave like the index, and you can quantify exactly to the second decimal point how much that is, then you are paying a lot of money for not getting a lot of value. on the other hand, if you want to perform differently than the market, you have to look different than the market. the risk with that, when we see people like kevin landis or bill miller or catherine would come when there is outperformance to the upside that is because they look -- or katherine wood, that is because there is outperformance to the upside, but a lot of people have bad years. even if you do not look like the market there is a chance you will not generate the expected returns from those portfolios.

there is safety in indexing, there is glory if you are a great stock picker, but there's a lot of risk also. tom: barry ritholtz, thank you so much. fabulous with peter lynch. look for that coming up on barry's podcast. the markets right now, back a little bit from the enthusiasm of the last two hours, but what i have noticed this week, monday and tuesday into jobs day and all of the enthusiasm for a lot of economic data is the gdp numbers start to creep up. lisa: they are creeping up to high levels. i want to go back to something barry was talking about. this is really important, especially if you have pension funds looking to hit the 6% or 7% to meet their obligations. they are looking to deliver that amid interest rates that are still 1.4% for the 10 year treasury.

this will not get it done. the question in mind is how much risk are we embedding in the system in our quest to get there at a time when we've already baked in a lot of the good news. tom: on a broader impact is the wall of money to be presumed from 1.x trillion, and you wonder what that does to the incentives of capitalism, the incentives of investment of society. how many new cars will i see on fifth avenue? lisa: that is a big question in terms of manufactured goods. also how much more will people go on vacation? how much more will people get their nails done. some of the aspects of the economic recovery. tom: are you saying i need to get my deals -- my nails done? lisa: i have trying to tell you for a week. tom: the reason i cannot get my nails done is what it costs to get the dog dressed at the dog

parler. kyle is billing me like a partner at a law firm. it is terrible. futures negative for, dow futures negative three. stay with us on radio and tv. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: from york city for our

audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. tuesday morning price action looks like this. -.1%. we begin with the bait issue. america back on top. >> u.s. exceptionalism. >> we are starting to see economic growth pickup. >> a slowdown in credit growth in china. >> gargantuan fiscal stimulus package. >> the normandy of the stimulus. -- the enormity of the stimulus. >> the vaccine count is getting better. >> what is the number one determinant of where the economy will be? >> getting the vaccine rollout faster and faster. >> the vaccination campaign is critical for global growth. >> europe lagging behind. >>