>> we really need to rethink about a new dashboard for this fed. >> it was concerning to me where we saw yields, but this fed is committed to not hiking. >> we need real yields to be low. >> we will see inflation settle at a notably faster pace than what we saw. >> the overall market is higher than it was this time last year. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the build up payrolls friday starts now. good morning. this is bloomberg: surveillance live on tv and radio. i'm jonathan ferro. the adp report tomorrow, payrolls friday. tom: it will be critical, john.

we see a better u.s. gdp, a better payroll statistic, and it folds into a market that has a bid. jonathan: as we inch toward that report, that estimate creeping higher. 190 five the median view. tom: citigroup with 410,000. you wonder where it will go off adp. mike mckee said the link name --may not be so tight. the fed speak could be tangible. jonathan: i agree. we will catch up with jp morgan later with their view on the labor markets. yields violently hired this session. -- higher this session. the 10 year yield, 143. governor brainard pushing back. that may put a lid on things. tom: exactly.

i am single little bit less negative, higher real yield this morning. i want you to compare and contrast the job owning of american fed speak versus the bloomberg article on ecb speak. jonathan: the top of the pile. they are comfortable with what they have seen. they call this a statement of confidence. inflation expectations going into february were rising. europe has a different problem. inflation expectations have been going the wrong way for years. the ecb is uncomfortable with the outlook, whereas the fed is comfortable. why? because the rollout has been so different. the outlook for u.s. growth is different for europe. lisa: there is also how much they can talk down yields at the ecb.

the fed does not have to do bond buying. it raises questions about the limits of what they can do on the ground. jonathan: also, what haven't they done? last week was amazing. the ecb talked up undo tightening. i found that strange. i was reporting from frankfurt, suggesting they are concerned enough to act yet. tom: just quickly, a reporter in italy --virus variant races through italy, especially among children. those headlines are different from biden and 300 million. jonathan: radically different to governor abbott as well. whatever you think about what the governor did. tom: we probably will have another texas by the time you get to your third property. jonathan: quite possibly. i start --i forget at what time.

some price action this morning before we start sparring. we have struggled around this 3900 level. that will be a topic of conversation. in the bond market, yields down by almost five basis points, 144 on 10. euro-dollar, 2061. dollar-yen with a one 07 handle. some strength against the and and euro this morning. -- the en and euro this morning. lisa: we will point to the payrolls report. the adp numbers a huge concern. nevertheless, you see the estimates keep coming up as time goes on. the median estimate 195,000. bloomberg economics saying to 50,000 --two hundred 50 thousand new jobs is the likely number we

will get today. fed speak. tom, it is incredibly important to know what they will be responding to, what their target is, what is full employment to them, how much does inequality in the market, the labor dynamic impact it? that parade of fed talk ahead of chair powell tomorrow. then that beige book report will be coming out, highlighting what we are seeing in different states. it has been a patchy recovery. we have seen some states try to reopen while others have to crackdown on a resurgence. we will get to that as we dig into that beige book. time, you will not be reading it. tom: ok, it is there. the minutes i find interesting, some, several, a lot. is there a beige book with the make of england? jonathan: they have something similar.

you get the north london report, back to the governor. we often do that in london. tom: we are wasting time to get to our wonderful guest. jonathan: gregory peters. we have been asking this all week. yields touching 161 thursday. have you been a buyer? >> we have been poking around. it is definitely an interesting journey. our view, above 120 five, it gets more interesting. one 50, even more interesting. one 75, very interesting. that is kind of how we are thinking about it from the scale. what happened last thursday was less about the level of yields but more what happened in the market itself. the market really had a whiff of march 2020, where there was a lot of dysfunction, tremendous illiquidity. those are the things we were more attuned to.

at the same time, it has created dislocations in the curve. there has been lots of talk about the seven year option and how worrisome that was. the twenty-year part of the treasury curve was also interesting. to me, maybe it is not so much about the overall level, but the dislocations across treasuries themselves. tom: we go back to basics. there is an idea of the nominal yield, the regular yield, and the dynamics of inflation and the residual, the real yield. which matters, the inflation dynamics or the residual, the real yield? >> the real yield metals more. -- matters more. that will act as a binding constraint around activity and borrowing. you see this real move inflation. inflation was priced too low last year.

it was on the floor. it has been moving higher ever since, but i really struggle with this narrative that inflation is really going to continue to pick up, so i am kind of on the others of inflation continuing to rise. will it be around the 2% level? yes. but not well above. and there are real base effects coming through that gives the optics of inflation being higher than it is. and the fed is telling you that and nobody wants to listen to that. jonathan: so important -- tom: so important. i cannot say nothing about this, what mr. peters just described. lisa: we have seen that in terms of short-term versus long-term inflation expectations. the curve is inverted the most ever. could we see 10-year treasury yield drop to new lows at some

point? the seems to be what scott minerd o guggenheim was saying yesterday in a report, saying treasury yields could go negative. could we see a rally that is significant in treasuries, or is scott ahead of himself? >> i am not willing to say negative at this point. let's get below 1% and take it from there. that somewhat heroic. the direction of travel is right, but the timing is tricky. we think the natural restingplace for 10 year treasuries is around 80 basis points. so that's not to say it is going to happen over the next several months with stimulus and the economic rebound, but when you look out 18 months, two years, i really see an environment where yields will move lower. timing is tricky, but i do think that direction of travel is

lower yields, not higher. jonathan: on the south side, they often predict -- on the sell side, they often predict high yields, but gradual moves. speaking to bloomberg, a guest talking about how to take advantage of those bursts of volatility in the future. can you tell me how you would approach things in the future if you expect to see that again? >> quite frankly, it is tricky, though, because the markets have a tendency of seizing up. if there is dysfunction and dislocation in the treasury market, which is the most liquid market in the world, in the u.s. for sure, i would think sets that off. what we saw in march of last year is it started with treasuries and illiquidity broke down everywhere else, so quite frankly, it is difficult to do. that being said, the derivative

market is where you continue to see real liquidity in times of stress with cash. i do think, though, if you get these vacuum moves, which we did not really see, that will create opportunity because i think the whole world on the buy side is waiting for credit to cheapen up because the strength of the economy is such where you want to own it. jonathan: always good to see you, greg peters. he did not say whether he was buying. poking around. tom: come on, john. jonathan: he is not buying. tom: he is not allowed to say. his general counsel will put him in the peach and timeout chair. he does mention the real yield. that is not the statistic. u.s. ggt, whatever it is, that is the real yield. you can see that friday's 1:00 p.m. and through the weekend as

you get ready for the second week of march. look for that on carefully selected networks worldwide. jonathan: this scares me. i wonder what i am returning to on my desk on this show when you start promoing. what have you done? lisa: he is poking around. tom: corpus christi, texas, they do not agree with their government. they are wearing a mask. jonathan: coming up at eight :00 a.m., alicia levine. from new york city good morning. this is bloomberg. >> with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. the senate may formally begin debate on the pandemic relief bill as soon as this afternoon. i handful of moderate democratic senators want tighter targeting for jobless aid in stimulus checks.

the biden administration is not counting on any support, so it needs all 50 democrats on board. it is president biden's first to step back from being considered for a nomination. senators had objected to the nominee for the omb head. in the u.k., rishi sunak will expend -- extend furlough protections to workers for months. the british government will keep paying 80 percent of wages for those in the program through june. the tokyo olympics organizers say a petition will be made by march 25 whether to allow overseas spectators. they will decide whether there will be limits. earlier, a newspaper reported that foreign spectators would be banned from the game.

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>> more and more people are starting to look at the wealth tax and say this makes a lot of

sense. people across this nation get it. independents, republicans, democrats, a majority want to see a wealth tax because they know the system is rigged against them. jonathan: senator elizabeth warren speaking to kevin cirilli. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. .56 percent. adp report comes in about an hour to --from now. the curve steeper. 144 basis points is your yield. tom: small caps lead the russell two thousand one .1% there. within the range of the tumult of the last 20 days. victory lap for kevin cirilli, a

smart interview with a progressive, senator warren from massachusetts. the distinction you saw? kevin: the space between secretary ellen and senator warren. that will only continue to be explored both in the financial services press but also as we inch forward and beyond president biden's first 100 days. there is a cosponsor we have spoken to, congressman brendan boyle. he represents suburban philadelphia. he is a moderate democrat. he is a cosponsor. pennsylvania battleground state come as a long-term application, but also speaks to this broader point about how her ideology is now shaping the bourbon congressional districts in a way that in 2013 we did not say. tom: i want to dovetail senator

warren's comments with the reality. the battle of 2021 is redistricting. your pennsylvania comment. it is always bitter. can the democrats lose the house through redistricting? kevin: they will say it poses a significant opportunity for republicans. republicans will take issue with that, because typically the mood of the country, the pendulum, swings back and forth after a couple of years into someone's first-term. lisa: one thing that was clear to me about senator warren's interview with you was the increasing cap between the biden administration --gap between the biden administration and what they are trying to do and the progressive wing of the democratic party. i am wondering how much this fissure will impact his plans. >> it is a check and balance.

the progressives lost the minimum wage debate on $15 an hour. when i asked her point blank to respond to senator sinema and manchin, she took the opportunity to talk about the filibuster. what the progressives are doing is saying, look, we want to continue to hammer this administration on progressive policies, but she has not taking the opportunity to criticize members of her own party in her caucus. that is a nuanced move from the senator from massachusetts. lisa: perhaps there is some nuance here, but can we extrapolate out and say those tax hikes, the people we were thinking about pre-election, is that back on the table? could there be tax hikes? >> yes.

she is not bluffing when she says there are republicans who are considering signing onto this proposal as cosponsors at all. and when you go longer-term, especially when we talk about infrastructure in president biden --and president biden and secretary but it did --sec. buttigieg will be having a meeting tomorrow, they have to figure out a way to pay for it. she is coming out first and saying this is how you do it. whether that continues to be discussed -- and republicans view this tax as a mechanism for revenue for funding for infrastructure --that is the part we don't know. but if you look at the polls, and there is a pullout yesterday -- there is a poll out yesterday, 53 percent of replicants agree with this tax. that is different from being able to say to raise taxes for

folks over a slurred --over a certain threshold. tom: it is about redistribution. they believe, most people assume, we have a k shaped recovery. we have seen that and this administration wants to do something about it on the spending and taxing side. is the primary objective to fund infrastructure spending or close the k? >> it is both. the wealth inequality is the point progressives continue to make, especially one year into a pandemic, progressives are raising the issue that, you know, there --the data would suggest that the lower income and lower net worth individuals and minority groups suffer the most economically during this pandemic and so this is the conversation one year later, similar to the populism that we saw after the 2008 financial collapse. now we are at the start of a new

conversation about how to get moving again. so i would expect also republicans to come out and say we need to reopen, lower taxes, but here we are again in the aftermath of another economic collapse. jonathan: got to get one more from you. the administration's response to what happened in texas with governor abbott. >> i will have to get back to you on that, but i think as it relates to texas and governor abbott -- jonathan: kevin cirilli. tom: you and i have been up. surly saunters in and doesn't have -- kevin cirilli saunters in and doesn't have the answer. he is killing it. lisa: the reality is, we already know what joe biden will say. we need to be cautious and that we need to tread lightly. he will push back to some degree, but highlight he is

moving forward. this is the dance we heard yesterday. jonathan: i think he can get ahead of this at the federal level. i think the government should say this is what you need to do if you have been vaccinated. lisa: but the science does not back it up yet. there could be a possibility of transmission and they want to be careful. tom: i was in the restaurant deciding between the value meal and the double cheeseburger. they were talking about gradually moving out from 25%. jonathan: i cannot take you seriously. i have been to mcdonald's with you once. tom: i don't remember that. jonathan: that was it. lisa: did he know what to order? jonathan: i did -- he did not. i had to order for him. tom: the only reason we went was to get a photograph. i was within the expenses

dictated to me -- dictated i say. jonathan: mcdonald's. james foley, rabbo bank, coming up. good morning. tom: four dollars today. jonathan: yeah. this is when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $300 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.

jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. this is the price action this wednesday. a bounce back on the s&p, up .6%. the nasdaq up .5%. the small caps up a little more than 1%. the challenge of being at 3900, just chopping around that now. here are some numbers to think about, 27, 10, 11. 27, the weighting of big tech in the ac and p -- in the s&p 500. this is the nominal yield. the 10-year about 144, call at one 40 five, up about five on the session.

the real yield has started to push higher and late into those valuations. it makes it difficult for the s&p 500 to advance. big tech is constrained even as financials rally. here is the 10 and 11 piece. if you look at amazon and apple, that is 10 percent of the s&p 500. this is the performance on the month. down six .6% over the last 30 days. 11% is the weighting of financials. that is a challenge. two names, apple, amazon, down six point 6% over the last 30 days. even with financials trying to do the lifting, it is heavy because they are only 11%. tom: this goes to the rotation debate. is it a rotation or is it just the things on the map, off the map back to normal? jonathan: it is the rotation now. you do not necessarily need these names to advance.

you need them to start going down. that is the challenge. tom: an important concept. jonathan: for more movers, let's get to romaine bostick. romaine: a bit of rotation. kind of a circular action too. talk about that narrowing risk premium this week. with all that talk, there is no consensus on it. you saw that reflected in the rally monday. in the premarket, you are getting a taste of that again. tech is trying to dust itself off and reassert itself. keep an eye on what is going on in the semi conductor space. i meant to put applied materials. the semiconductor equipment stocks are trying to reassert themselves this morning. when you look at the value trade versus the momentum trade and the push/pull between those, it comes back to yields. the resiliency we have seen has

been in that ship space. the fintech stocks like square have also been outperforming. square bucked the trend yesterday. they are up 5%. their third straight day of gains. you have the floats trade going on with rocket companies. similar to gamestop, there was a fundamental rally coming out of its earnings last thursday, but we saw yesterday had no explanation. you could call it a short squeeze, a return to the mean. this goes back to the chatter and the idea that you do not have a consensus on it as to where this market should be. tom: where is the short interest on gamestop? do we know? >> i do not know out the top of my head. let's put it that way. lisa: did you see hertz yesterday?

it had a reorganization plan. >> how much of those shares worth? --are those shares worth? lisa: zero. jonathan: can you believe they almost did in equity offering last year? -- an equity offering last year? unreal. yesterday cummins and was flying. at the end of the day, it was rolled over. what happened? >> there forecast for growth, 150%. that drops in the next quarter. by the fourth quarter, analysts are modeling close to single-digit percentage growth. this is the story. the comparisons now are going to be too difficult to satisfy the valuations. if there is any stock that has a high valuation, it is assumed. -- zoom. jonathan: futures up --

tom: futures up 18 points. james foley joins us from rebo bank. -- rabobank. if you look at the trade-weighted dollar, the broad index of the dollar, it has been range bound. it has gone nowhere for five years. does that surprise you work in the dollar finally cut when my or the other? --cut one way or the other? >> we have gone everywhere. i think, right now, we have in hearing it in the equity space. there is a lack of consensus with respect to the foreign exchange market. that means there is a lot to resolve in the coming months. that might mean a choppy backdrop for the dollar and the foreign exchange market in general as the market comes to terms with new themes. the theme, for instance, of

reflation. the market thought they would be buying up high yields, but now, centric to the u.s., what does that mean? the fed is thinking surely that means the dollar is going to be more resilient than the market is expecting. that's the theme that is coming through. that has to be resolved in the next couple weeks or perhaps quarters. jonathan: i am trying to work out where to play that through g10. through the low yield, commodity, currencies? >> i imagine the market is pretty still short positioned on the dollar. we could see that coming through. that does not mean to say we will not see these flows into high yields, perhaps see that the commodities are going higher, but perhaps we are not going to see as much gains in high yields, in commodity

countries. maybe for the australian dollar, that is generally higher yield within the g10. maybe that is going to push against the recent highs we have seen. quite difficult to get beyond those levels. i could say the same for euro-dollar too. it may be difficult to get to the one 20 five level many in the market have been talking about. that looks to be quite a long way off. we could see a little bit lower potentially over euro dollar in the next six months. jonathan: the dollar selloff is down, you are saying. the dollar weakness story will not develop. >> right. that is not to say we are totally resolved yet. if we look at what brainerd has been saying, she has been talking about the weakness in the labor market. we have seen that and other g10 economies.

she is talking about a 23% unemployment rate in the bottom quartile of workers. much of the savings has been done by higher income workers and they have a low propensity to consume, so the fed will not give up on its tone yet, nor are the other central bankers either. there is --going on between what the markets think will happen and the fed wanting to say hold your horses. give it time. this scenario, it will be choppy. lisa: choppy for the foreseeable future. not necessarily a big weakening or strengthening of the dollar. less commitment in the high-yielding space. what could you see breaking us out of that? what are the risks to either push the dollar stronger or substantially weaker entering a new cycle of trading? >> i suppose we have to go back to the risks with respect to

covid and coronavirus. hopefully we do not get bad news on that front. hopefully it carries on being positive, but the market still has to get through the tail end of this pandemic, and that means a lot of the economic data this quarter, maybe in q2, could disappoint. the market could be disappointed. the fed could appear to have the upper hand with its scenario. that could bring back some of the scenarios we were talking about earlier in the year. then, when we get to the middle of the year, we will have more confirmation of the better outlook in growth. i think it will be one way or the other. i think we have had these disappointments in terms of growth and, finally, maybe in the second half of the year, we have more conviction about the inflation trade. -- reflation trade. lisa: jonathan ferro is prepared to give us gifts because of the strength in the pound.

someone coming out saying he expects the u.k. economy to return to pre-covid gdp next year. do you see more upside to the pound? >> a lot of it is priced in with the pound. with cable, that could make more significant gains. more difficult to achieve. for now, i think we are on a consolidation phase. the one 42 level could be quite a long time coming, potentially. again, this very much depends on the data. the market is longer on sterling, so it will be more susceptible to fall over if we get bad data. we still have the possibility that the data we get for this quarter could disappoint, because we are in a tough lockdown. jonathan: rishi sunak speaking right now. here is the forecast at the moment. 20 22, the economy will grow by

7.3%. the number for 20 23, 1.7%. you compare and contrast those two years, that deceleration, back to trend growth quickly. that is the story central banks will tell. we get explosive growth and then flatten out fast. tom: i would look at the 20 23 number as an extrapolation back to potential gdp. that may happen, that may not. q1, they take down to 4%, which shocks me on a relative basis versus u.s. jonathan: the other line from chancellor soon a that stands out --we will need to begin fixing public finances. the u.k. has been one of the only developed economies that has talked a diddly about this. -- talked repeatedly

about this. i wonder if that is a mistake. from new york city this morning alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro with lisa abramowicz. we advance this morning, 19 points higher, .5%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> president biden wants to speed up the timetable for most americans to be vaccinated for the coronavirus. he said there will be doses for all american adults by the end of may. he wants to give teachers and childcare workers priority, giving them at least one dose by the end of the month. u.s. infrastructure has received a mediocre grade from the american society of civil juniors. that should help president biden

when he asks congress for a major infrastructure spending package. they say that roads, bridges, sewers and the energy grid remain underfunded. people have agreed to curb governor cuomo's emergency powers on top of calls for him to resign, facing an investigation of claims that he acted inappropriately towards three women, plus questions whether his administration covered up data on covid deaths in a nursing home. the opec-plus coalition is poised to agree on a price. saudi arabia is cautious while russia wents to open the -- while russia wants to open the tap.

trying to win more american clients and narrow the gap with industry leader. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the next three years will be the fastest of oil demand

growth. if we overshoot, that is where i think the upside risk could be up to $100 per barrel. jonathan: triple digit crude the upside risk. that was the head of global commodities at bank of america. good morning. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. oil up. wti crude. yields are higher by five or six basis points. approaching 145 on the 10 year. the s&p 500 up .5%. tom: this lift of the market within the ranges that we have seen recently. this is a wonderful joy. bernstein research, the black book, on hydrocarbons is treasured.

he is a geophysicist. we are thrilled he could join us . oswald, the acuity of your work, the precision of your work, leads to careful analysis of demand. what does the demand recovery look like right now? >> thank you very much for having me come everyone. demand is critical. demand tracks much better with volatility indicators. our view is europe is a weak spot. europe is 15% of the oil demand pie. north america is powering ahead. asia is coming back strongly. it is in europe that we need to get back up and running. tom: i want to take your landmark research and dovetail it into vaccinations.

what does oil prices get out of your range based on joe biden's vaccinations? >> you know, the u.s. is 20 million barrels a day, felt 18, goes to 19 this year, up to 20 by next year. that matches your vaccination rate. remember, the u.s. was on a decline curve in terms of demand. we are not expecting huge growth, beyond 20 million barrels per day. what is the net zero strategy that could be outlined and how much oil demand does that take out of the system on a go forward basis? jonathan: you are running us through some important numbers. we have a bias to look at the commodity market and say this is our direction. when you look at europe struggling, china, the recover

y maturing there. is that why you are less bullish on the commodity market? >> it is a bit of a short-term. did we think $50? no, we thought $15. however, industries are pulling back swiftly. it is surprising. as opec has more supply, we would probably pullback short-term. that is why we are more cautious, but longer-term, that demand going up for the next couple of years. but the supply-side is really more important. that will struggle from this point onward. and therefore prices can go to much higher levels than we are looking at today. jonathan: also important to look at crude in arrange. -- a range. what is the appropriate range to

think about? >> honestly, i think $60 to $80 a barrel brent is a good range. about that, discipline is breaking down. elasticity kicks in and people spend more, travel more, buy less. plus, you will see way more substitution from wind, solar and hydrogen because the economics will tilt into those. you are causing that demand point to come earlier. i do not think if we go to 90 or 100 we are there for long. i think 60 or 80 is the right number for opec and producers left in this market. lisa: maybe five years ago, people talked about how the swing producer was a shale complex. that is a big unknown. opec can come to some conclusion, but what will the u.s. do and it is not included in these agreements? does it still act that way,

given the economics are much less favorable to drill at these price points? >> great question. one million barrels a day of u.s. output over the last decade. so nine or 10 million barrels a . the base case is one third of that. that type of number should not be hugely disruptive to oil supply and demand balances as it has been over the past 10 years. yes, we have some growth. to your point, a lot of the good locations have been drilled, low cost locations have been drilled. you need higher price decks to drill more, but the quantum will never be a shade of its former glory. jonathan: oswald clinton, thank you. we need to think about $80, when

the demand structure starts to kick in and the lean toward alternatives kick in. opec has no incentive to let it go that direction. tom: it is confusing for viewers. some people take a more macro view, some going to the microeconomics, and some do both, like francisco blanch. dr. clint is world-class in the microeconomics. jonathan: brent-wti 60-68. lisa: you mentioned the opec meeting, not wanting to increase production to much, not wanting to cannibalize the riches they are getting too much. this is a delicate dance. jonathan: this is one example of the delicate dance between

policymakers and markets. markets will frontload a lot of this quickly. that is what we saw in the bond market this week. this is what policymakers do not want. they do not want them to frontload the growth because recovery hasn't started yet. tom: i will go with that, john, but i look again at gdp right now and i go back to the blunt instrument of 70 percent of the economy is consumption. frankly, is -- here is a point of debate for the show, is the next retail sales report more important than the next jobs report? jonathan: it depends on what the stimulus checks looks like, because that has dictated how strong the retail sales reports have been. one of the big stories of the last 12 months of this market. coming up, alicia levine on this equity market as we struggle to

break 30 900 and stay there. a lift this morning. .4% on the s&p. trade yield higher five basis points. from new york city, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance.

>> we really need to rethink and think about a new dashboard for this fed. >> i think we will see inflation settle at a faster pace than what we saw over the last cycle. >> there are real effects coming through that give the optics of inflation being higher than it is. >> the overall market is higher than it was this time last year. >> it is not a straight line higher. there is a good correction along the way. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: