market, the fed wanting to save holger horses. >> those checks may be coming at a time when the economy is reopening. >> there are facts that come through that skiff the optics of inflation being higher than it is. >> the year finishes pretty good, but there is a correction along the way. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: waiting for chairman powell. good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance -- "bloomberg surveillance." the dow futures down. big check -- big tech struggling. tom: yeah they are. it is not a bear market, but it is on the edge of a correction. we are not there, it is worth watching. jonathan: amazon down 11 percent, apple down 10%.

it is a struggle, it is technically challenged, even with that rotation. you don't get enough from elsewhere. tom: you open with chairman powell, back to the bond market, everybody looking for calming words from chairman powell. off that adp report yesterday, where is the labor economy and does it give it proof of the 6% gdp? that is uncertain. jonathan: payroll is tomorrow. lisa, this chairman powell lean into the? lisa: there is concern about the base of the rate rise. how much -- just to put into perspective, 10-year treasury yield have risen in 2021 which puts it on pace for the biggest increase since 2016. this is getting people's attention. jonathan: we look like this this thursday morning. equity market shaping up, down

21 on the s&p 500 index. in the fx market on the euro-dollar coming down a little more than 1/10 of 1%. yes one -- you have stability on the 10 year. the nasdaq futures are down another 96. lisa: this is interesting to see. today we will be watching the opec+ meeting. very interesting to see whether saudi arabia will maintain some of these production cuts in place which was key as part of their january agreement. they want to wrap it up even more. we will be getting jobless claims at eight earthy decks at 8:30 -- claims at 8:30. the question is, and what direction? if we get an underwhelming report, does that send treasury

yields lower? the idea that you could potentially get more fiscal stimulus down in washington, d.c. one of the biggest mysteries is how the market responds to fundamental data. jay powell will be speaking at the wall street journal symposium. very interesting to see how much he will push back against the rate hike that is implied by the markets but not confirmed by anything the reserve has said. don't they want the yield curve to steepen? don't they want to send a message of optimism? if they don't, what ability they lose? jonathan: he talks in about six hours and we will see what he has to say. there pushing back a little bit, i wonder if he reflects that. tom: i think there is navelgazing in the uncertainty. we have guests that will give us their view against this

uncertain q2. euro-dollar matters. i look at the partition within the turn between euro and yen. we have a weaker yen relative to euro. off of the radar is that euro continues to -- with the swiss franc. jonathan: should we do payroll estimates? -- the median estimate is 200,000. tom: there is a turn there. i go to citigroup and the 400,000 statistic. the most important comment we heard on the american economy was from for rowley of jp morgan looking at the six or 7 million reemployed across this year. lisa: are we taking bets? jonathan: no i think you're taking a pass on that.

tom: you guys have to carry the weight today, i am focused on 1:00 p.m. if we were in london, we would be on the river thames. both teams need to win. jonathan: christopher marangi joins us now. chris, we are not going to do all that stuff. let's talk about the markets. do a position for higher inflation? -- do i position for higher inflation? >> i would position for both. . the era of low rates and good growth is probably over. we might be like. -- likely to see higher inflation going forward. the question is how much, is it because everybody wants to go on vacation in august or is it structural?

the market is focused on the interplay between rates and inflation. that leads to a rotation in value stocks which started six months ago and benefited people like us. tom: we had a conversation with leadership of exxon. give us your update on hydrocarbons. remarry or was -- your thoughts on big oil? christopher: one of the big themes coming out of the earnings season is social governance. everybody is talking about it. everybody will write about it in their roof work. over the last -- in their report. companies like exxon have done better. we launched a sustainability fund, our first etf. we think there is a bright future for companies trying to go green, particularly

industrial companies trying to pivot to green which you see with gm and their audits. -- and their products. and exxon, to an extent. lisa: you said "goldilocks died a year ago." this means it is not too cold, not too hot. i am curious going forward what's that means. who loses? in a perfect world where nothing is too hot and not too cold, who suffers when goldilocks dies? christopher: i think you are seeing it in what is happening with the nasdaq. this is a perfect growth environment for big companies that don't have to show profits in the near term and whose profits in the future are being discounted at low rates. i think there will be more of an impetus to be profitable to have rational models.

that should favor the traditional incumbent companies which now include those which are in honestly profitable. jonathan: think about a child tuning in this morning. what is this? the children are in tears. lisa: [laughter] come on, this is something people have been talking about. obviously we don't want goldilocks dying. but these are key questions in investing. jonathan: chris, active management, do you think you have a stronger argument for that this year? christopher: i think we do. in the case of the case for passive, there is more passive. we have seen mindless lows driving the market to the extent

that we could do price discovery and how it benefits us. now is the time to do it. if goldilocks is dead, not everybody is going to go up. tom: where is the generator? what is the line that matters to the gabelli shop? christopher: it has always been -- jonathan: good to catch up. christopher marangi. wells fargo, chris harvey just publishing. the equity market turned into a stock ticker's. -- -- stock picker's paradise. tom: lori has been the strongest, most present analyst i have seen in 20 days or so. in small caps, you have winners and a lot of losers who did not

have the courage. it is about stock picking. jonathan: this benchmark on the s&p 500, that is why we have been trapped around this 3900 level. tech is such a heavy waiting. i know we keep going back to it, but that is -- that has been the story. lisa: it will probably continue given the rotation people are expecting. with the stockpicking paradise, this idea of concentration becomes more of a risk. i think of stock investment and kathy would. you have to look at who owns the stuff, how concentrated that ownership is. tom: you are 100% about stock picker's reality, but then you diversify away the alpha.

ability had a more concentrated portfolio versus only 300 securities. jonathan: i will be interested to see if -- morgan stanley is pushing back against the same story. tom: this is important. christopher marangi with that important story on goldilocks. goldilocks is gluten-free. lisa: maybe your home is gluten-free. tom: our home is very gluten-free. jonathan are you gluten-free? jonathan: i am not. lisa: the idea of not too hot and not too cold being dead, what does that mean in terms of the relationship between bond yields and stocks? the idea that everything goes down at the same time? tom: this is the question of the first half of this year. we are performance driven and people that take the middle ground are underperforming against the massive skew of performance in selected areas.

jonathan: it gets silly, it gets serious, i don't know what's this show is this morning. tom: did you read the three bears as a kid? jonathan: we did. you call it oatmeal, we call it porridge. thanks a lot for that. coming up in the next hour -- lisa: [laughter] jonathan: i have no idea what comes up in the next hour. david blanchflower will join us. futures down 22. up -- tom: i could not understand a word he was saying. jonathan: i didn't understand you either and we still don't understand each other. this is bloomberg. ritika: it looks like the senate will not pass president biden's $1.9 trillion relief bill until

the weekend. they delayed the start of the debate while waiting for a cost estimate on the latest version of the bill. democrats are making changes to the house version. they will tighten 11 -- eligibility for the stimulus checks. they produce -- the british chancellor plans to raise taxes to the highest level since 50 years. they hope to help the economy through the pandemic. in his annual budget, he made it clear that saving jobs is his top priority. spacex's latest rocket had its first successful landing but then exploded moments after work. the prototype lifted off from a launch pad in texas and flew to an altitude of six miles then had its first stable landing in three attempts. just before the explosion, other

tests ended in fireballs. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.

>> i think it is a big mistake. i hope everybody realizes these masks make a difference.

we are on the cusp of being able to fundamentally change the nature of this disease because the way we are able to get vaccines in people's arms. we have been able to move that up to up may to get every adult american a shot. jonathan: president joe biden, that was the response to governor abbott reopening the state and taking away the mass commended -- the mass commended. cutting you down to jobless claims in about two hours. chairman powell at midday going into that. in the equity market, we are down 26 points on the s&p 500, nasdaq futures down more so. we are down by 7/10 of 1%. 6% of the smartest apple. apple is down by more than 1% -- almost 10% over the past month.

tom: jonathan, they getting hammered right now. within the company of what we see -- within the cacophony of what we see in washington, there are senators out there -- the idea of alaska where they were primary. they were thrown out of their party. you know the senator from alaska was primaried out years ago and she won on a right in vote. she understands the immediate domestic politics of her party. >> and she is the most independent member of the senate i would argue, even more than independence like bernie sanders because she is not tied to her primary electric to win elections. the conversation is whether

biden can win murkowski's vote. even though republicans have stayed out of the negotiation, she said she must to see if she can get some improvements. this will be a habit of hers for probably the next fierce. -- for the next few years. before the neera tanden nomination fell through, she hoped she could play an advantage. she is the republican to watch for this will and any others. tom: this comes off of forbes magazine of the nitty-gritty of these battles. what would senator murkowski wants to get out of this bill for a provoked -- this bill for her vote? jack: probably the number one thing she would want is to get

biden to reverse his decision to block oil drilling in the alaskan wildlife refuge. that is an executive issue you can do outside of this bill. state aid could be improved for alaska. if she could tweak things to get more money proper state which has had revenues hit the heart, that is something that could be improved. lisa: democrats have pushed back the vote for the stimulus bill. there is a question about how much the final track -- final price tag will come to due to changes made to the eligibility for the checks. can you talk about what other changes have made and what the expectation is the final headline number? jack: the headline number looks like it will be close to $1.9 trillion. they have not scored it after they took out the minimum wage

portion which only came in around $54 million -- $54 billion. there were other things that got cut out, some of the infrastructure stuff they wanted to do. that limitation on the stimulus check looks like the biggest one. this is about minor tweaks. if it is under the $1.88 trillion level rather than the $1.92 trillion level. it still looks close to the $1.9 trillion. jonathan: this is a partisan bill, why are they obsessed with the optics of negotiations of bipartisan efforts when everyone knows it is everything but? jack: they have not been obsessed with the six -- the optics because it is a bipartisan bill. it would be a bonus to get markowski on and say it is

bipartisan and say that republicans are wrong when they accused biden of going back on his promise to work across the aisle. but they have pushed through a democratic will -- democratic bill and i would not be surprised if markowski's support all through and this is 50 democrats and kamala harris at the tiebreaker. jonathan: maybe the word "upset stte" was too strong -- "upset stte" -- "obsessed" was too strong. does this set the pace for the next bill? jack: that depends on the senate parliamentarian and what they can do without republicans.

they don't know if they can do a big infrastructure bill without republicans. i think the answer to that is that unfortunately it is up to the process and it is in the weeds as to if democrats can act without republicans. jonathan: interesting. good to catch up. jack fitzpatrick there. nasdaq futures rolling over, up 9/10 of 1%. apple's honest 11 and a half percent -- 11.5%. tom: it is radically different from the invention of the cubes years ago. i guess the headline story for me today is i don't have yields higher, how strange. jonathan: yields are lower. talk about chairman powell at midday, lisa. lisa: there is an expectation he

will push back against -- excuse me. they are going to hike rates. jonathan: i don't know if they're going to do that today. lisa: 2023 is too early and people will say he will push back against the notion that they will push rates in early 2023. if you look at the expectations, there is nothing he said to support that. jonathan: we will get into that more. it is up to the market participant to define that. if you think we will get that quicker than the fed, you can disagree with the fed's forecast. it will be upgraded probably in the next couple of quarters. market participants can say -- tom: i would look at the gdp data. what do we do with the 6%

american economic growth? we are not used to that. i cannot say how unprecedented that is. jonathan: coming up -- from new york city this morning, chairman powell at 12:00 eastern. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it.

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jonathan: chairman powell coming up a little bit later. equity futures pulling back .7% on the s&p. nasdaq down hard. get to the bond market. 27% of the s&p 500 is big tech which has struggled as yields go higher. 30's at 224. is this silly statement of confidence? part of the focus later today with chairman powell. tech has been upset what has happened in yields. what is next? foreign-exchange, commodities? a little bit of dollar strength. copper having a hard sigh this

morning. down a little more than 4.5%. i don't want to get too far ahead. we could see more of this, tom. i wonder if it upsets the consensus trade. tom: the ebb and flow. there is a real distinction here. we have done a good job on commodity voices. metals distinctive because of china. we have to watch that in the coming days. this is a joy. the answer is we only have david blanchflower after carter football wins 10 and a rope -- cardiff football wins 10 in a row. he is definitive on the job economy, from the wage curve to not working -- where have all the good jobs gone? danny blanchflower owns the high

ground. he joins us from dartmouth college in new hampshire. you say, where is the wage growth or lack of it? with the government-induced inflation, will that give us legitimate wage growth in the good feeling from it? danny: in a while. the fed did not interpret it correctly, did not have an excellent nation for it. the big story will be what happened to wage growth? we have a puzzle now because during 2020 and coming into 2021 wage growth has jumped to about 7% or 8% but not credible. that's because of the dropping of the low end of the labor market. it is a batting average effect. watching wages will be important. measuring it will be very hard. i think you are right.

the big deal will be wage growth. look at what happens, see if it sustains itself no it hasn't. the major reason for that is the people at the low end have got to be lifted. they have been impacted hard by the pandemic. they have not seen strong wage growth in the last decade. that is central to all this. tom: is it about jumpstarting the economy? what is the character of 6% or 7% gdp? what kind of economy will that be? david: it will be a pretty good economy. we have to put all this in context. tom: is it an economy for the elites? the money will go to the elites. david: that is the concern. strong recovery for some, no

recovery for others. the great thing that biden has done, focused on it, he has to strong appointees -- two strong appointees that said this is what we are going to focus on. the reality of that is it is hard to bring everybody along together. look at the stock market. we have seen that do pretty well. wall street is doing fine. the issue around the world is what happens to main street? main street has not done that well. the explanation for populism of a push to trump, and the u.k. for a push the brexit. this is central what happens in the recovery. do you bring everybody along? does the british prime minister -- is he able to do things for the constituents that used to be

labour? what is powell going to say about those people at the low end, being furloughed and their firms will not start up again? lisa: let's unpack a little bit. people come on this show and they say the markets outperformed a did well even though main street lagged behind. now we are entering a new paradigm where main street can perhaps do better and markets may perhaps underperform a bit. are you saying that is hogwash, not true and the trajectory we are on? david: i see the central part is the fed and the bank of england will do quantitative easing. that will push up asset prices. how does that quantitative easing help people at the low end? the answer is it doesn't. the focus on the biden package

is about jobs, helping people at the low end, and restoring employment for those who were furloughed, those who had to take on appointment benefits. when the unemployment rate rises, as of last april, 50% to 20%, we have -- 15% to 20%, the bottom 10% or so of the wage distribution dropped out. they are not working. they are furloughed. are the firms that are furloughed actually going to reopen? if they are not, we are in big trouble. the government will have to do something about that. we know that. we have never seen anything quite like that. this is a big problem. jonathan: we want to go back to your time with the bank of england. 2006 to 2009. you sat there with governor king. did you tell him you did not

like the idea of qe when the grand experiment got going? david: absolutely not. central banks were basically unprepared. unprepared for having to do this. i think the biggest thing is two things. nobody had a clue about the transition mechanism and how it would work. nobody had a clue how it would never end. it has not ended any continues. the answer is no. the other part of it -- think of the debate at the bank of england. the committee is arguing in public about if they think they should go to negative rates. i remember being told half a percent was the lower end. this is unheard of territory, jon. we will see. what assets will they continue to buy? what will the bank of england

do? will the u.s. go to negative rates? i think powell has made the right noises but do they have any ability to impact things? does the $100 billion of qe the same as 2009? jonathan: i know from sources when you are at the bank of england governor king told you not to say qe won't work. you will had to get on the same page. i know from talking to people it happened. whenever he going to have a proper conversation about if this works not be dictated by couple of people who make big decisions? david: the answer is by run november of 2008 it was clear you could not cut rates enough. you can't cut the price of money so you raise the quantity. go back to your earlier

question. it was not clear what qe has done. it is what you just asked. it has to be in combination with zero or some places negative rates. the attempts to work out are difficult. if we have not done it, unemployment rates would be 25%. that is the bernanke line. 2008-2009 it worked. diminishing returns set in. it seems to have the positive effects on the stock market. why else has the stock market risen? basically we had no idea to buy. the bank of england but pretty long stuff they did not mature very quickly. it did not just what did qe do,

but what impact, what duration stuff to you buy? when you are floundering, you have to do everything. they said inflation will take off. the story out of the fed looking back this is a got 2015 to 2018 wrong, which i think every month for three and a half years, so i'm hopeful. it's a tough time. jonathan: always good to catch up. danny blanchflower. we are still learning from decisions that were made more than a decade ago. tom: it overhangs all of this, including the press are perfect -- pressure that professor blanchflower faced. bank of japan, 15-18 years ago made the wrong decision. that cost every moment.

the bank of japan screwed up. there is no other way to do it and they had to retract a rate move that is tattooed to the brain of every academic economist -- economic economists. jonathan: i find it amazing on the experiment most people to come on this program will tell you we don't like it. the academics carry on doing it. why? they also want to loosen financial conditions and get them on board. tom: jon, my why is simple. i spoke to secretary geithner about this when it is we are petrified of bankruptcy and clearing zombie institutions. lisa: this is also a fear when there is a market crash the people at the bottom suffer the most. there is not a mechanism to get that back up.

jonathan: it is just the nature of policy. altar conditions and the assets built over time. it has been absolutely humongous over the last 12 months. coming up, jason farley. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the senate is not likely to approve president biden's coronavirus package until the weekend. lawmakers are waiting on an official -- to the latest version. democrats tweaking the version passed by the house. it is changing eligibility for the $1400 to this checks. the u.s. has speeded up its vaccination program. in the last week and average of

more than 2 million doses per day were administered. more than 80 million shots have been given in the u.s. that's about 24 shots for every 100 people. jerome powell is likely to push back today on market doubt about the central bank's policy. captives -- skeptics have been questioning if they will pull back support for the economy. powell will make an appearance at a wall street journal webinar. the market has been inspecting the cartel to increase production at today's meeting. analysts a opec will deliver a smaller increase in expected. lufthansa is posted a record loss for the year. it will struggle to break even before the end of 2021. the pandemic has forced airline groups to dial back plans to a level where it is unlikely to make money. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ready to go -- ritika goupa. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> texas had this massive natural disaster from the ice storms and power outages.

vaccines in many cases are delayed. some had to be wasted because of that. there is a delay in health activity. turning off all the things we know work right now is really unfortunate. jonathan: johns hopkins assistant professor lauren saurer. chairman powell. equity market right now we are down one half of 1% on the s&p. bond market. yields on the 10-year, 145.84. in the last week the average doses per day in america, average vaccine doses 2.01 million. tom: what was that, 1.6 originally. jonathan: we were at 900k when

the president took office. tom: we have headlines from all over the world. they come streaming in. lisa reach them all. 3:49 this morning the nation of hungary sank it's not working. -- sank it's not working. the troubles in europe and the horrific pandemic is what texas is doing. jason farley joins us right now. i can honestly say in my walk-through of science i have never seen the division so wide. how do you respond to further draconian lock in europe versus the nirvana of what we see from the governor of texas? jason: good morning, tom. it is certainly a confusing state of affairs for those of us in the scientific community. the country had a green light for quite a while planning on

returning a lot of normalcy to the country by easter on the original prime minister's plan. then i case report in old folks homes, retirement homes that showed 1200 new cases in a single day, nine deaths. got a lot of pressure to begin to pull back the lifting of restrictions. contrast that with texas, where your underreporting has shown there has been significant delays in vaccine due to the recent weather conditions. the governor basically lifting all restrictions across the state. we are scratching our heads about how governors seem to be falling completely the business community's thoughts and ignoring the scientific community. tom: help us -- the washington

post leads with this but it's in the bloomberg zeitgeist. this virus and the obese. you are in the trenches of the medical care of this. describe what the virus does to people who are overweight. jason: certainly. obesity is a risk factor for more severe disease. conditions like hypertension, diabetes and others are risk factors. you have a compounding effect of risk. when we see the infection, we also see there may be with hypertension and diabetes and other diseases a greater number of receptors, therefore increasing receptivity to the virus. therefore when you receive the infection and start to replicate the virus, your immune system responds in a very brisk way. that leads to acute respiratory distress, as we have described many times.

patients who are overweight have potentially multiple risk factors to increase negative response factors. lisa: as we march towards herd immunity there are many basic questions that remain unanswered. if somebody has gotten infected, can they get reinfected? if somebody gets inoculated, can they spread covid? what are the answers to these basic questions when it comes to getting protection from the virus? jason: one can understand the public's confusion with these questions. on the question of reinfection, it is more rare to get reinfected but it's absolutely possible. we have said for a long time we believed it was possible. now we have evidence in multiple ways. we have seen reinfection with the variants. subsequently we see, particularly in brazil, almost 70% of the city was initially

infected and resistant infections to the new mutant viruses popped up. yes, reinfection can occur. we have scientific evidence of that now. in terms of transmitting the virus after vaccines, none of the studies can answer that question. that is the key contributive factor to a lot of confusion. if we look at the data out of israel, which has the world's best vaccination coverage, it does seem to reduce substantially the potential to transmit the virus up to 94%. that data continues to emerge out of israel, providing us data on how we believe you will likely not be able to transmit the virus. two vaccinated individuals can conga get together. -- congregate together. jonathan: let's go through the

data. 15.9% of the population in america had at least one shot. 8.1% fully vaccinated. do we need to achieve a certain percentage of what we can tell people they can go about their normal life? or are we waiting for a study? jason: it is going to not be a magic pill that we can have the answer medially. first i think small groups of individuals were vaccinated can congregate. we have seen the nation's do ctor dr. fauci talking about he would welcome the men for a family dinner. i agree with that wholeheartedly. when you are in my household where i am vaccinated in my partner is not, i would not do that. that would increase his risk for subsequent infections. as we think about these discordant households, we

eventually open up vaccination and need to prioritize households in which one person has been vaccinated so you can create a family sense of normalcy as you move forward. for individuals with single person household or individuals within congregate settings -- with incongregant settings, we need to get to the household back to a sense of normalcy by vaccinating its entirety. jonathan: jason farley, thank you sir. 15.9% in the u.s. at least one shot. compare and contrast between the united states and the u.k. 31% and the u.k. have had one shot. -- in the u.k. have had one shot. tom: have you seen any movement on the continent of europe? hungary news stunned me. jonathan: the problem is with

acceptance and not supplied. lisa has talked about that and we will talk about it more. good morning. futures are down. we are off .3%. we recovered a little from earlier on. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it has got to be a difficult dance for the fed and difficult for the bond market. >> is a battle going on between the market things will happen and the fed wanting to say hold your horses. >> those checks may be coming at a time when the economy is reopening. >> it gives the appearance of inflation being higher than it is. >> there is a good correction along the way. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: chairman powell coming up. from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. equity futures down 11 points on the s&p 500. a small move lower after a vicious couple of weeks for big tech. tom: chairman