>> it is going to be a difficult dance for the fed and bond market. >> a battle between with the market things will happen and the fed wanting to say. >> global growth will move higher as we emerge into a new state of marv -- normalcy. >> a big story will be what happens to wage growth. >> the era of low inflation and low rates and good growth is probably over. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone.

simulcast bloomberg radio, a day of claims in 30 minutes. right now what's important for me as we go to a key interview with the finance minister of the republic of germany is jonathan ferro i need to talk about a better take and i see it expressed in the dollar that could go up to new strengths. jonathan: coming into the new year there was so much excitement about synchronized global growth and europe being a part of that. that's what the dollar story get so much more interesting. we eat into them a little bit over the next several weeks. jonathan: let's -- tom: let's go to what we work -- we are going to be talking about. olaf schultz and the others in europe, what they don't want is a strong euro. what level do you see that in your research? jonathan: back end august into september, 1.2 five, they

definitely don't like it. they tell us they don't like it, the question is what are you going to do about it. so far they have not done a lot. the ecb are talking a good game, but do they follow through? the fate of the session today. tom: an open question within your reading. lisa you look at where we are now, we're in a midpoint here. the research -- what is the research show forward? lisa: i'm struck by the huge debates on one side, higher yields going forward. the dollar is another one. robin brooks the chief economist saying the dollar is overvalued. he talked about one key element, that the current account deficit.

that we are borrowing so much money in the united states to finance the recovery, that creates a natural weakening to the dollar. the strengthening of the dollar but is the growth that it generates. tom, of the bigger the deficit, the weaker the currency. that is a big conundrum now as people try to figure out what the consensus is. tom: it's an extraordinary deviation right now. the iif with their representation of the major banks. dollar dynamics yield dynamics can cut both ways. jonathan: do you want to buy euro right now? just on that, is that reason enough? tom: euro has been resilient versus hopefully weaker yen for japan. jonathan: i just wonder if that's not a reason to buy a little bit more. tom: what we are focused on is

5%, 6%, you wonder how that distills down. futures negative seven, they improve. the vix, -- let's go to the cfra chief investment strategist. sam, i look at where we are. how do you interpret the gdp call for america as it rolls over into revenue growth and earnings adjustment? sam: basically i think the gdp now forecast i the atlanta fed is a little bit too high for q1, expectations up about 10%. we are looking for something along the lines of 4.8%. when you make the comparison year on year it is q2 that is likely to see the bigger jump. we have a 6% expectation for the second quarter of this year

moderating towards the middle 4.5% for the rest of the year. the feeling is revenues are expected to be improving in 2021 , also likely to see improvement into 2022 with people -- which people are now beginning to look at. overall the question is high, but how high. lisa: let's go to the quote of the morning which is goldilocks debt. is it or are we getting to an economy that will recover and perhaps not as run as people -- as hot as people expect and can they maintain a low rate environment fostering a market continuing to move? sam: i think goldilocks is being pushed off to the side because we are looking at that acceleration in inflationary and interest rate expectations, we are -- we have already built in the expectation for a strong growth and earnings in 2021.

that is really expected to be replicated in 2022. looking for about 16% earnings growth in 2022 revenues up about 7%. that's down slightly from expectations through 2021. a little more challenging backdrop then investors will have to face. lisa: let's talk about the nuts and bolts. how you are arranging. it sounds like you see treasury yields going up higher. where do we go with tech stocks which have gotten the upper plate? sam: tech stocks, it typically depends on which yield curve you look at, if you look at the three month versus 10 year, tech stocks tend to do ok on average, gaining 1.06% per month going back to 1953. versus 1.10 for the s&p 500. a slight underperformer. because we had such a growth in

the growth category as the s&p 500, at the end of august of last year we were 35 percentage points above value on a trolling 12 month basis which is the highest on record. we are giving back a lot of that. tom: if i was waxing philosophical. one final question. i was waxing philosophical last night about the acclaimed star system of standard & poor's, five-star stock, four-star stock, how did that do in the pandemic? did it add value in the pandemic? sam: yes it did. stars were stock appreciation ranking system first came out -- stars, or the stock appreciation ranking system first came out in the 80's. five is best, one is worst, three is similar to the market. i would say during the pandemic

itself, that was when our five-stars shown the best. -- shone the best. we -- with the market was going to do, surging out of that pandemic trough. jonathan: many people underestimated how good gdp growth might be this year in america this -- might be this year in america. the story in europe much more complex. a tough few months to roll out this vaccine. germany has plans to gradually reopen the economy. i'm happy to say the german finance minister joins us now. fantastic to catch up with you. i want to start with a vaccine strategy in europe. which you've reportedly called a reap -- a real pile of crab. is that a deaf -- >> i think there was the problem

in ordering enough vaccines last year, but now everyone is working hard that we will have enough vaccines to bring to the people in this is organized in all the countries and also in germany. jonathan: what went wrong, minister? >> there should have been more activity to organize more vaccines and especially if you understand that most of the important developments of modern vaccines have been made in europe. two of the three big companies that developed new vaccines are from germany. so this is a good basis for doing the right things, but in the end i think we are now on the right track. everyone is working really hard

and we are now organizing to have them as fast as possible and there will be in a short time millions of people with the ability. >> considering those companies are german, why didn't the government act to get them first, of those vaccines out of the german people right away? mr. scholz: i think it is clear this is something that should've been organized in europe together but it's also clear this is something that should be part of an international collaboration which is working necessarily for saving the world we are working hard on international and global initiatives and supporting those countries who do not have the means to organize the vaccines for themselves because if we want to fight this successfully

it will be necessary that we give the chance to all the people. coming back to europe and germany think we will do it. matt: you are responsible for dealing with the damage done by extended lockdowns to the german economy, our reporter found the government is considering as much as 50 billion euros in additional debt spending, supplemental debt spending, to deal with the deeper damage from the extended lockdowns. can you confirm that? mr. scholz: we will do extra activities, this is true. and we are able to do so. in europe we are the first to fight against pandemic with fiscal means. last year we developed the first of very strong were probably programs and managed activity possible that this is answering

together in this crisis. the effect on the german economy 's office the having a very good situation of the labor market and it is much better than anyone expected. we have a very good situation in the economy. if you compare the development of the german economy to other countries in the world you see we are between the bests fighting get the economic consequences of crisis. matt: can i push harder to get a figure here in terms of additional spending that's necessary. 50 billion euros in additional spending, is it somewhere in that ballpark? mr. scholz: your colleagues from germany asked the same question to me and i always gave them the same answer, you will see. jonathan: let me follow-up on the election coming up later this year, you are running

against chancellor merkel's party, you have to find some daylight between you and herself on the pandemic. what would you have done differently that wasn't done? mr. scholz: fighting against the pandemic is a common task of the whole government and i think we have to be very hard in fighting against the health crisis which is linked to the pandemic and save the people. this is what we do. i think it's not a good idea to do campaigns on this question. obviously we need something of a plan coming out of this situation. we have to be very concrete on the question of testing and vaccinating the people and i was also strict in the question at the beginning that there should have been more activities in

europe about producing and buying vaccines. we are working -- jonathan: most people assume this will be a single issue. there's no other discussion in the global economy. a sink is no difference between yourself and the cdu on the biggest issue of the last several decades in the global economy? there's no difference in how you apply this crisis or reopen this economy. >> there are differences that i will discuss but to be very clear it is the common task and i very much merging everyone not to do party politics and the question which is responsible which is important for the life of people. this is something no one would accept. there is something different to other countries. there is really a problem with

the pandemic and the coronavirus. that is necessary to fight against it. also not just within the parties of the government. and so this concerns for doing the right thing. doing your task is the first thing if you're running for ruling the country. this is the task we have now. we are fighting for the idea that this must be done taking the economy working on social cohesion looking at the people supporting them and fighting against health crisis. jonathan: let me finish with this one. a big problem on acceptance of the vaccine. have you had the vaccine? mr. scholz: i have not because

there has been an agreement on who will be the first and who will be the last in the leading politicians are not in the first column. but when we are at the stage where we will be vaccinated, we will take it. i will take the one which is offered to me. there are a lot of very successful vaccines on the market. jonathan: thank you for your time today. an important conversation on some difficult issues. the german finance minister there. let's have the conversation about what's taking place in europe. tom keene, a difficult time. politically speaking how do you separate yourself? tom: that was a delegate answer. for those in america same pfizer, moderna and johnson & johnson is coming, it is not

that way in europe where there is a real fragility about which vaccine to choose and the minister was very careful to say he will take the one-handed to him. we are not having that conversation in america. jonathan: it's going to be difficult road ahead. headlines confirm a lot scholz says germany will need to take on extra debt in 2021. how does that change from here on out? matt: germany doesn't have a very high debt to gdp ratio, certainly not when compared to the u.s.. and definitely not when compared to the peripheral states here in europe. so the german budget, they are ready for this. they have been saving for a raining day -- rainy day. now that it is raining they are ready to spend that money. tom made a point that differentiates what the finance minister said and what angela merkel said. she has said she will not take

the astrazeneca vaccine and the germans have really been critical about use of that vaccine for people over 65. i think it is really interesting issue that has had effects on the share price of astrazeneca, and really had some ripple effects of the market. jonathan: good to see you sir. tom: is there and a differential across the ocean certainly the economic numbers and things we look at with investment. also what we've tried to do now pushing on a year and ever more is the medicine of this pandemic , giving us original leadership in february of last year. at the baylor college of medicine he has been ubiquitous. it is almost like dr. fauci, you have been everywhere giving us

wisdom on the vaccine. have you spoken to the governor of your texas? >> i have not had the opportunity to speak with the governor or his staff. we always welcome that opportunity. i have in the past but not over this latest issue. tom: i'm hearing anecdotally of people trying to leave the state so furious about this. there are people in support of the governor. what would be your counsel to the governor on the differential equations of more vaccinations, better vaccinations, better statistics against his political philosophy? >> there are two reasons not to dial back masks and social distancing at this point. we have this terrible united kingdom variant. it first arose out of southern england in september. now the data is showing it is much more aggressive in terms of

its ability to be transmitted. the second part has not been peer reviewed. the u.k. government put it up on its website, a pretty compelling that the death rate is higher. it's racing through the country at a high rate. these ice let's are these variants. so that is -- even though the number of cases have been going down steadily, and now many people think it will start going back up, that's issue one. second, vaccines are not here yet. operation warp speed promised emergency use authorization. they will come, the president two days ago said -- committed to every american who wants to be vaccinated can be vaccinated by late spring, early summer. so hold off, don't dial back the

masks and social distancing right now. this is the worst time to do it. lisa: this may be premature, but looking forward based on where we are in the schedule and the technology discovered through this process, are we closer to the next pandemic or further away? dr. hotez: i think we are closer to vaccinating our way out of this current one. i say that because there some exciting news out of israel last week published in the new england journal of medicine. we've known two doses of the pfizer vaccine and likely the moderna vaccine as well can stop symptomatic illness and keep you out of the hospital with the intensive care unit. the data from israel shows a 92% reduction also in asymptomatic transmission meaning people who become positive. it means you can -- if enough people get vaccinated and the other vaccines have a similar

performance, it means we can halt transmission. that means we can vaccinate our way out of this epidemic in the united states. i don't know things will go completely back to normal but i would have much more optimism about what -- about masks coming off later in the summer or fall. now was not the time to screw it up by relaxing measures. you don't want people losing their lives before all the good things to come. lisa: looking forward to the next pandemic, the post-covid era we are still dealing with the different coronavirus's. frankly based on some estimates it's amazing we haven't had a pandemic like this until now. do we feel prepared to deal with it in a better way then we dealt with this one, which by many accounts really could've been handled better? dr. hotez: one of the things i point out, things have gotten better. with each pandemic we learn something. after sars and 2003 we put in

international health regulations. after h1n1, of the global health security agenda. --, the goal will -- the global health security agenda. after ebola, the coalition for epidemic preparedness. each time we do learn something and make incremental advances. this one will have more far-reaching effects because it was devastating the economy globally. tom: as you know there is always a kink. if you take the wonderful smooth curve on the vaccination success , it's a curve down through the years. where is the kink for you? is it 50 years old, 48 years old? where is that tipping point as we moved to young adults? dr. hotez: it's really a gradual

slope. but one of the things also is even younger individuals with comorbid conditions can get pretty serious illness. the thing that worries me the most quite honestly as i think the u.s., other than the spring which will be rough, i think the u.s. will manage its way. we will probably see a third immunization may be tailored to the variants, maybe a second dose of the johnson & johnson vaccine. the thing i'm worried about is other parts of the world. africa is scaring me because you have the south african variant, now it is accelerating to mozambique and into tanzania and we don't have a lot to offer. those vaccines are still pretty fussy in building the scale of production. i don't think they will have a big role in helping out.

the astrazeneca vaccine is a good vaccine for the u.k. variant what doesn't look to be working against the south african variant. we don't have a lot to offer the african continent. they're trying to scale up aggressively our vaccine. i'm worried about the destabilization of africa. jonathan: we appreciate your time. dean of the national school of medicine at baylor college of medicine. africa in particular is really suffering right now. i think the message governments around the world need to get across is it is a global pandemic. i don't think international travel anytime soon, getting back to normal there is difficult. tom: i looked at the data on -- about every three or four days. i'm listening to dr. hotez on

his focus on africa. jonathan: jobless claims the united states of america, equity futures recovering. down a most 1/10 of 1%. mike mckee breaking down the numbers. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile, you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network? sure thing! and with fast, nationwide 5g included - at no extra cost? we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction... ...and learn how much you can save at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings.

jonathan: jobless claims coming out and the united states. from new york city, good morning. i am jonathan ferro. activity futures down 3.5% on the s&p 500. the data dropping eminently. mike: we're waiting for the numbers to come in here as everybody clicks on the labor department numbers as fast as possible. the revisions to productivity are in. -4.2%. that's better than the forecast but will not move a lot of needles. jobless claims number out. 745,000. just under the forecast of 750,000. that is up from last weekend it

does suggest what we saw was maybe a holiday and storm-induced decline in the jobless claims numbers during the week prior to this. at this point we are kind of on status quo in terms of jobless claims coming in. elevated above 700,000. that's about 100,000 above the highest we had before the pandemic. tom: how do dovetail claims into what we see tomorrow? the monthly study series we have seen. mike: there is not really a complete correlation. claims are telling you people lose jobs, whereas friday we are counting the number of jobs that were gained. in general they move in opposite directions. if people are falling off the claims report, you would expect more jobs to be created. it is hard to say because we are in such an unusual situation. lisa: hard to really nail down

the ways we have characterized the labor market data we have been getting. at what point can we count on it to mean something? mike: that's a hard question to answer. the fed is not even looking at on employment anymore. it is looking at enhanced unemployment. they are trying to figure out how many people are out there who lost jobs and can't get jobs back. that is the answer to the fed conundrum of when they do anything about rates. for people can come back into the labor force and get jobs, the labor market tightens and we would see inflation. you will hear jay powell talk about that maybe today. until we get a better handle on the number of jobs lost permanently it will be hard to tell. tom: mr. mckee running all of our economics with perspective on chairman powell's comments later today. ethan harris with a wonderful performance for bank of america securities, their head of global economic research, particularly coming out of 2007 to 2009 we

out front of the economics curve. an author of a book on the shift from greenspan to bernanke. another shift right now of how long chairman powell will be here. let's talk about the fed today. in your book on ben bernanke you talked about a demystified fed. you talked about the secrets of the temple. what are the secrets of the jay powell temple? ethan: jay powell is a continuation of this new generation of central bankers. you no longer have these greenspan decoder ring figuring out what you are saying. you are trying to be more transparent about what you are up to and very clear about the direction of policy. what has changed under powell is the fed was very frustrated by their inability to hit their inflation target in the last

business expansion. they have adopted a very aggressive approach here that focuses on making sure the financial conditions are very, very loose. second, promising to overshoot the target. if you have an average target of 2%, you have to overshoot part of the time. doing that as well. they are saying they will take a broader view of the labor market and focus on how disadvantaged workers are doing. under powell, and all of these respects, the fed has taken another step towards a more aggressively dovish approach. it is partly a continuation but partly in reaction to their failure to get inflation higher or hit their target in the last business cycle. jonathan: what is on the new dashboard? the data has changed. the data we are looking at should shift to some degree. ethan: mike has a right.

it's about -- mike has it right. are getting people to come back into the job market and employing them and the people who are currently looking for work? just looking at the traditional unemployment rate does not work. the problem with jobless claims is a are moving around a lot because there is cross currents in the economy. right now they are a bit of a mess. the fed really wants to be sure they are taking a broad view of the market. i would say things like the on a planet right -- u6 unemployment rate, that is probably the one indicator i would focus on this close to the official indicator, which does not include 70 marginal workers in the

calculation -- some of these marginal workers in the calculation. jonathan: to think we are 12 months in and we are seeing claims numbers at 745,000. still huge. tom: i have to do a surveillance question. ethan harris has been such a supporter of what i've done. all of our audience on radio and tv know the u6 series. it is the only way to go. jonathan: i wonder if you have to go another way. employment population. ethan: that is true. that is another angle on it. the u6 will capture some of it but not all of it. that is another one of the keys. tom, your audience needs to know about the employment population ratio as well. lisa: how do you quantify the inefficiency baked into the

turns beneath the surface? we talked about if services are open or not, if restaurants can open or not, but there has been a huge technological shift. where are we seeing the inefficiencies of retraining people and getting people hired into new positions in the labor market metrics? ethan: it will be painful because you have a lot of people out of work for a long time. businesses are thinking harder about using technology instead of employment. as we come out of this crisis it will be a bit harder to get all those people back to work. in addition, not just people out for a long time and therefore lost some of their skill set, but you have these people who had delays in effective education coming out of it. they need to stay in school longer. there is some scarring from all of this going forward. i think it looks quite good

because you do have a massive monetary fiscal stimulus that will help heal the wounds pretty fast. lisa: do you agree with janet yellen that if the $1.9 trillion to ms. gets pas -- stimulus gets passed, we could have full employment x year? -- next year? ethan: i do. it is not just the $1.9 trillion. they did $900 billion in december. they are probably going to be doing a big infrastructure spending plan probably sometime late in the year when we get into a new budget year. then the thing i do not hear the fed talking about as much as they should is all the leftover stimulus money from last year that is sitting in people's bank accounts. there are $3.2 trillion of checking, savings, money market funds above normal levels that

is built up because people could not go out for services and are getting big checks from the government. that is a lot of dry powder. i think we are going to have the fastest return to full employment ever. tom: the dow goes to green right now as we look at futures. you have the privilege of working with michelle meyer, a pretty good thing. she is exceptionally cute. her original claim was on real estate. what is the state of real estate in america? ethan: it is good. she over the years became quite the expert on that. it is good. you have a lot of momentum in the real estate market. there is trouble, right? an increased demand for apartments and enter cities. -- in inner cities. generally speaking, high demand

for single-family homes, rising home prices. we do think that that will run out of momentum next year. not quite yet. we are in an ongoing rise in mortgage rates and bond yields. a rise in the 10-year is unstable. very strong fundamentals behind higher rates. housing should become moving from one of the leading drivers of growth to more of a flatish outlook next year. it is ok now but some flattening out next year. jonathan: great to catch up. ethan harris, bank of america securities had at global economic research. tom: look at that green. jonathan: a little bit of green for you. 198 is your median tomorrow. the range is high.

112 from bbva. citigroup looking for 410. tom: this version -- dispersion is always there. where are we on gdp when it's linked to jobs? dr. harrison bank of america, what does this mean for wages which is a key determinant of the future inflation? jonathan: stay tuned as the economy picks up throughout the year. tom: oh, you meant for your show. jonathan: just building a bridge. coming up on bloomberg, a conversation to don't want to miss what the delta ceo. that will be interesting. from new york city, i am

jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ritika: i am ritika gupta. the senate is not likely to approve president biden's coronavirus packets into the weekend. lawmakers are waiting on an official cost estimate of the latest version. democrats are tweaking the measure that was passed by the house. the president agreed to moderate demands to tighten eligibility for the $1400 stimulus checks. president biden is struggling to head off a potential crisis on the southern border. a spike in migrant crossings, especially by unaccompanied children is threatening to overwhelm government shelters. republicans and some democrats and the president's policies have caused the surge. he says it is not a crisis. live posted a record loss for the year. it says it will struggle to break even before the end of

2021. the pandemic is forced europe's largest airline group to dial back capacity plans to a level where it is unlikely to make money. here is lufthansa's ceo. >> we are convinced it is time to replace restrictions and quarantine rules by digital international testing organizations. that has worked in brussels. that is worked on behalf of our industry. that will allow our customers to travel again this summer. ritika: federal reserve chairman jerome powell is likely to push back today on bond market doubts about central bank policy. questioning whether the fed will be ultra patient and pulling back at support for the economy when the pandemic is ended. powell makes an appearance at a wall street journal webinar. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it will be a staggered return. all the destinations are not going to open up at once.

there will be plenty of pent-up demand as is evidenced by the bookings already as you look at late 2021 and the first half and second half of 2022. tom: good morning, everyone. we welcome you on radio and television. arnold donald from carnival. what is certain is all of airlines have struggled. we heard from lufthansa of their struggles within germany. in america it has been a different set of battles. the ups and downs of the last 12 months. ed bastian drops a horse at delta airlines and comes with an amazed -- and its financial acuity, including with his time from pepsi frito-lay. caroline hyde with the romance of the delta flight from detroit to shanghai. it is one of the joys to go to

detroit, get on the delta, can you show up in shanghai. we have done it too many times. caroline: you paint that picture so vividly. i think you so much for your time, getting it to ed bastian who joins us now. we are talking your commitment, your march 2020 commitment. $1 billion to become the first carbon neutral airline. today you are announcing details about cheap. you are purchasing offsets to make sure last year was completely neutral. you are investing in sustainable fuels with m.i.t. and corporate customers. you want to have zero impact aviation. how hard is it to be that when your business model has been so wrecked by covid? ed: things for having me. it is great to talk to you again.

that pandemic has exposed a lot of vulnerabilities throughout society, throughout our world. things we have taken for granted that will hopefully we will never take for granted again such as our health and the resiliency in our businesses. if we are going to protect health, we have to protect our planet. when you think about sustainability, that is what it is about. it is a massive challenge. a year ago to this month we made the commitment to be the first carbon neutral airline globally. we have made the investments despite the financial challenges we had to mitigate all the carbon dioxide emissions this company produced over the last year just recently with investments we made in reforestation and protecting the environment in places such as cambodia and indonesia. caroline: is it a competitive advantage? ed: i don't think it's a

competitive issue. it is the right thing to do. it is the smart thing to do. customers are looking for us to do that. we announced recently two major corporate partnerships, with nike and deloitte. this is good competition. it pushes us, not just in the airline globally to create a better planet for generations to come. caroline: i love any lease you talk about traveling the world and saving the world should not be mutually exclusive. talk about traveling the world right now. how is the reopening process? ed: at least in the u.s. on a global basis our business is still probably 12 months away from being able to reopen at any kind of scale we are talking about. within the u.s., case counts are coming down fairly dramatically.

we are looking at the vaccinations continuing to accelerate. we are at about 16% of the was population that had at least one of the two shots available. that is growing by the day. as a result consumers are having confidence in booking their spring and summer travel plans. we said a number of times it is darkest before the dawn. we are seeing some glimmers of hope shining through this darkness. i think the real glimmers of hope we are seeing -- i expect this summer to be traveling at a scale in the u.s. caroline: kudos to you. he partnered with the state of georgia to open up your campus for covid vaccine to be made available. will you be put to lift that blocking of the middle seat come may? ed: we are blocking it through april. we will decide and announce soon what our plans are as we head

into the spring and early summer. at some point we are going to start to sell those middle seats. demand will require it. we don't want to stop short of when customers really are comfortable getting up and traveling again. the blocking of the middle seats has been one of many things we have done to restore consumer confidence over this past year. it will be in important decision we take. it will get there when consumers are ready to start purchasing those seats, but i hope by the summer they will. caroline: do you think purchasing of seats will be made easier, better, stronger by stimulus in the u.s.? by the checks that might land on people's doors? ed: consumers in the u.s. have a considerable amount of pent-up demand. they have also -- many of them have also been able to accumulate some additional savings over this past year as they suspended many of their activities.

i expect they will be ready to get there five back this summer -- their life back this summer. people are thinking about the first or second trip they will take, what they will see and do. it is bringing anticipation and hope back. we are a world that has lost hope and lost anticipation over this last year to be able to look forward to something. i see that coming back soon. caroline: well set. in terms of your projections to breakeven in terms of cash flow for the second quarter and a profit in the third quarter, are glimmers of hope becoming a reality? ed: it is still a little early to confirm that. we are not into the second quarter yet. yes, i continue to be optimistic we will get to that breakeven level on cash either for the second quarter and then for the summer season we should be profitable. assuming the vaccinations continue to rollout.

domestically we will be traveling at scale. i believe it will be a robust summer traveled period. great bargains for consumers. i encourage everyone to get your plans locked in as quickly as you can, especially on delta. as we think internationally, we are still probably a year away. caroline: ed, i need no encouragement. to be back on international flights or domestic flights. thank you for painting the vision for us. ed bastian, delta airlines ceo. tom: looking at the markets as we advance to chairman powell, lisa, red and green is what we saw two hours ago. lisa: yields are higher. earlier they were lower. showing momentum with the price down and yields up as people look toward that better future for everyone is getting on a plane. tom: it was a -.76 and now -.74.

stay with us on bloomberg radio and television. interesting markets wrapped around the conversation with the fed. david westin, he is the secretary of agriculture, secretary vilsack. look for that. ♪

jonathan: a little stability going into chairman powell. good morning, good morning. the countdown to the opening bell starts now with futures unchanged on the s&p but would begin with investors looking ahead to jay powell. >> here is the big picture. >> tug-of-war here. >> real yield. >> economic growth is picking up. >> supply-demand imbalance. >> the market pushed inflation expectations and rates a little higher. >> there is a battle now between the fed and the market. >> the rates go where credit spreads go where the equity market behaves. >> the market is pushing the limits of the fed. >> the fed will not take the bait on this one and overreact. >> they medically so clear they have a dual mandate. >> they have to communicate and let the market know they will be on hold. >> powell