doubly over. >> global growth will move higher this year. >> it is a real battle between what the market -- what the market things will happen and the fed wanting to say hold your horses. >> a big story going forward is what happens to wage growth? >> as we, out of this crisis, will be harder to get all those people back to work. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: payrolls friday. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. off by 2/10 of 1% on the s&p 500. there payrolls report two hours, 30 minutes away. tom: the jobs report -- what occurred overnight is the plumbing -- a word we will hear a lot of today -- the plumbing of the fixed income markets as seen in the overnight market --

paper markets, and the repurchase market, the so-called repo market. we have a great set of people to drive forward the joint conversation of the jobs report and challenges of liquidity. jonathan: and throw in a little chairman powell. is he stuck between a rock and a hard place or what? tom: truly a lose-lose position. and if it is chairman powell or chairman greenspan, it does not really matter. looking at salvation from the chairman of the federal reserve system, there's only so much he can do. i believelisa's reading the entire document on the floor -- jonathan: she is -- lisa: 700 pages. jonathan: she is doing that because we have not. what is in it? lisa: a lot of interesting stuff. i have not gotten to the end. i will be reading it through the afternoon. we have a policy surprise. basically, there has been a

policy put down in washington, d.c., the expectation we will get this $1.9 trillion bill passed. the expectation -- the market wants a put on volatility, and the fed is showing they are more willing to tolerate a greater degree of volatility than some traders are operable with peer the consequences of that, the question is how far will it be? jonathan: in looking at the curve, the fed is getting what it wants. -- at the long end, yields have been rising wide. tom: across the history of all central banking, this has been documented -- they want the markets help them get to the policy outcomes. we have seen that, with the way the 10 year yield moved yesterday. you wonder where the tip point is. lisa: one thing that is very

important -- now the fundamental data has to match up the optimism -- the fed is saying you guys can do it a little on your own, and the valuation has to be justified by the fundamentals more than they happen over the past year. tom: this is so important. david rosenberg was one of my other properties the other day, and he was on fire about what lisa, we have to get the data, and -- jonathan: it is the better data that has disrupted this market. think about it. it is the better data that has had growth equities. in growth equities have been widening the market. tom: this will be fascinating. it is like tott beating whoever they played yesterday. jonathan: f i think it wasulham -- it was fulham.

in the bond market, yields low bought a couple basis points. the dollar stronger today, euro-dollar 1.1932. lisa: a huge story. we will be covering that. the idea of policy surprise. 8:30 a.m., we have been talking about the february jobs report, and we have seen improvement in data, that is why yields are rising, but we have not seen improvement in the labor market. we see it here? expectation is massive. the spread 35,002 beyond 5000 -- 50,000 new jobs versus the average addition of 2500 since september. the average gain -- jobs start to matter more here. it will be interesting to see what the markets say.

today, we get the u.s. baker hughes rate count. it really shoes the shale flexibility to ramp up production in -- it really shows the shale possibility to ramp up production. at what point does shale come in and really provide the swing point? and we will be hearing from the senate -- i will personally read all 700 pages of the document. there is a question of how much momentum the democrats can get to get some of the other priorities of the biden administration in place. jonathan: we will check in with jared bernstein a little later. 190,000 the estimate -- the range is high. tom: i've got the phrase "beneath the headline data," and every economist has a different view of what is beneath the headline data. i will go to what we talked

about yesterday, which is robert goodman from ages ago at putnam working in talking about employment to population, comparing those that are employed as compared to the body of the public. that is a great relative statistic over the span of time. jonathan: let's turn to catherine mann, patiently standing by as we all talk over each other. the fed is looking at the change compared to what it used to focused on -- focus on. what should we focus on? catherine: currently, it is the numbers that matter for the fed is the inclusive employment number. they have emphasize that -- even before cvoid, they were emphasizing the need to have inclusion in the labor market. they have put it together even more explicitly in their statement of monetary objective. so that is what we are looking at, not inflation. we are nowhere near inflation being a concern. tom: long ago and far away --

and you are far too young to know this -- there was a gentleman named rick goldberg -- rube goldberg, and the rubge goldberg system was fascinating, like falling dominoes. there is a belief from -- that there is a complex system that could collapse at any moment. witness the repo market, the plumbing in the system. how rube goldberg is the american system right now? catherine: interesting. rube goldberg had several different elements that were key. the issue is that markets have been rising in superior economic performance for the united states for almost a year. even when covid occurred in we

had a bounce back, and the market basically believe we were going to come out of this and be extremely well-off. the real data has not yet matched the market expectation. every good news has been priced in more than once. it is going to be very hard for any data, no matter how good it is, to matter the market believes they have already priced in. that is the most significant problem, is that there is no good data data that cannot be any good data that will match what the market expects, because i've already priced it all in. lisa: so what do we need, theoretically, from the jobs data to confirm what is getting baked into markets? catherine: so the fed has said we are going to be accommodative until we get to an inclusive employment. if that is what is going to make the market happy, that is what we are going to get.

the problem is half the markets want to have better jobs data and a tighter running economy, and the other half of the market is scared of that because of the potential inflationary consequences. there are these different directions within the market that the better data is already priced in by some, but the better data implies higher inflation expectations. tom: dr. mann, interest rates were splashy the last few days, with a huge employment number -- is that a one-off statistic, or are we going to see month after month after month way above the 200,000 norm we used to be used to? catherine: well, andrews has put out statistics on the u.s. economy even after the initial covid crash. he has been close to right, at

least on the numbers, on terms of growth numbers. but there has been this really big this connect in the u.s. economy between what we see in terms of production numbers, which is gdp, and what we see in terms of employment numbers. there is just tremendous disconnect between the two. this is what the fed is challenged by. part of that is because the most labor-intensive sectors are the ones that have been closed off through the lockdowns, the services sector area. the storyline is that you maintain the very strong employment numbers and manufacturing, because everyone still has a lot of money to spend on goods, yet you open up the services sector, the labor-intensive sector, and that is when you have the floodgates of jobs coming back. i think there is more of a delay in terms of how people are going to spend these additional checks, and i think there is going to be some time to take to bring all of those service tech workers back on board. so i do not see as much of a

bounce in terms of the employment numbers. i think it is more of a six-month process, maybe even longer than that. jonathan: good to see you as always. catherine mann, city global chief economist -- citi global chief economist. tom: those are the estimates, but again -- i believe, in all these years, i've never said this on a jobs day until now. the linkage between the jobs day into a 154 10 year yield, which many pros say could cut either way, 10 basis points up or down. jonathan: and the blah jobs report. lisa: it is reality. but what catherine mann was saying is that basically the market is bifurcated. it does not know what it wants. this conundrum will really pose a problem. jonathan: coming up -- a big

lineup. looking forward to that later, including jared bernstein and rick rieder. lisa: that is it? jonathan: and more. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> a sign that other countries -- beijing set a target of about 6%, well will what economists forecast. china is raising defense spending 6.8%, the most in two years. senate democrats are bracing for a marathon session of votes on president biden's $1.9 trillion

to me was package. the balancing act for democratic leaders -- they need to emerge with a bill that gets the votes of all 50 democrats without risking a revolt by progressives in the house. the u.s. and u.k. may impose more sanctions on russia, this time over the use of chemical weapons. bloomberg learned the two countries may target moscow's oligarchs or go after sovereign debt. and more fallout from the opec+ decision. west texas, oil rose above $64 a barrel for the first time in four years. opec+ surprise the market by detaining supply restrictions. and negotiations over the rights to national football league have

become an extension to the streaming wars. netflix and comcast are looking for ways to add nfl action. meanwhile, amazon getting ambitions about using football to attract users to its prime video so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design

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>> it is a broad range of financial conditions we are

looking at. that is really the key. it is many things. we want to see and would be concerned if we did not see disorderly conditions -- orderly conditions in markets, and we do not want to see -- it is not appropriate to isolate one particular interest rate or price. jonathan: the fed chair in the last 24 hours. tight financial conditions if we have got it -- this is not late 2018. some of you may say this is a forecast, and observation of where we are now. we are not there yet. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equity futures down 3 on the s&p. in the bond market, yields in. a couple basis points. one .5418 -- 1.5418. the yield range positive

500,000. tom: what is so important about that data check, it does not capture the tension between the longer duration market worried about inflation and jobs and the short term paper market, which, in the last 24 hours, is extraordinary. i want to drive your attention worldwide to something we have never seen in our lifetimes. john paul tried to visit iraq under saddam hussein and was not allowed to. there is no greater sense of a pandemic ending then pope francis visiting a place of great biblical heritage. this is an extraordinary image, truly unprecedented in our lifetime, pope francis meeting with the prime minister of iraq. there is no measure for the symbolism in this. jonathan: a really historical moment. tom: with us now emily wilkins with bloomberg government as we look at the pageantry of not the

pope in iraq part of the reading of the bill. explain to our audience while we are reading a 600 page document. it seems so juvenile. emily: because this is how the united states senate works. one republican senator, ron johnson from wisconsin, who will face a tough be election -- asked for the entire reading of the 628 page bill that took 10 hours, 44 minutes, wrapped up at 2:00 a.m. this morning. this is a delay tactic, a tactic republicans are trying to put forward to do anything they can to stall the democrat-backed stimulus bill. it is not going to work. democrats will pass the bill. it will just take longer. lisa: democrats are the bigger obstacle than even the republicans to themselves, with the idea of who gets more clout, centrists over the progressive wing.

how much pushback are you checking to see from progressives and what does it mean for further bills going forward, like infrastructure? emily: some of the interesting things we will keep our eye on is the next step is for republicans to start offering amendments to the spill. they only need to peel off one democrat of that 50 if they want one of these amendments included, and that can change the structure of things. right now, democrats have struck agreements to satisfy centrists and more progressive people, showing up support and getting everybody on board, but if one of these republican amendments is actually added to the bill, that could shift the dynamics and potentially jeopardize the billing the house. lisa: let's look to the infrastructure bill, but because there's where the talk seems to be going, republicans pushing back against plans to do more deficit spending. how realistic our particular tax provisions later this year as republicans say we are on board with you but you have got to tax? emily: and this is one of the

biggest debates right now about this upcoming infrastructure bill. the main question in washington. how do we pay for it? there are a lot of ideas out there, a lot are somewhat controversial. there has been pushed back to the idea of raising the gas tax. senator warren has put forward a wealth tax. negotiations at this point are still really early in the process. the question of pay is one we will watch closely over the next several weeks and months as this next big package gets developed. jonathan: are they negotiating across the aisle or between themselves? emily: at this point, i've talked to a couple of republicans saying we are trying to work with democrats on this. i've talked with democrats and we want to work with republicans. there is still that hope that there can be bipartisanship, especially because of this freezing. democrats are using this budget

reconciliation thing to pass the current stimulus bill with only democratic votes, but not everything can be passed through budget reconciliation. there are certain limits. and even the bill right now, they have taken at a number of provisions dealing with transportation and infrastructure. if democrats want a solid infrastructure and transportation bill to go through this process, they will not be able to get everything they want. eventually, they will need republican assistance to pass certain things. tom: how does horsetrading the curve -- senator schumer was on a private call with democrats and let's go. they are not at the willard barn with cigars in hand, walking up and down that historic aisle -- or the octagonal barn, not i've ever been there. how does horsetrading occur in the modern day? emily: someone asked senator schumer the other day, and he

held up his very outdated foot phone -- flipphone. the senate has been there, meeting more than the house has been. the senate has a chance to talk to each other, even if not within d.c.'s barn scene, which pretty much remains closed. jonathan: emily wilkins, thank you. the fx market, the dollar strength creeping in. the dollar-yen, 108.52. dollar strength across the board across the euro, the young, and the pound. tom: what is news there is what moved and did not move. yen out to a 108.53, very beneficial for japan to begin with in the short term. that is a really important statistic. that is beneath the rate hour in

the last 24 hours. jonathan: you do not see it infecting the complex much. the opec+ story overpowering. lisa: with the copper story, there is a question about china not willing to run their economy hot. that is what we heard overnight as they kicked off the national people's congress for their week long meeting. interesting to see how this factors into the u.n. i am interested to see when this starts strengthening against the dollar. when do deficits matter again? jonathan: gold, 50.96. tom: for the gold bulls, it has been a tough run. a break under 1700 is a big deal. jonathan: really yield is driving, not inflation expectation. tom: and people are saying really yield is going to 0. jonathan: smacking around equities. tom: i like how your preparing

people for 1:00 p.m. coming up after the 9:00 a.m. show -- jonathan: catching up with -- lisa: "dr. phil" -- [laughter] jonathan: looking forward to that. from new york, this is bl when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $300 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.

jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." the price action this payrolls friday, positive, about 1/10 of 1%. over the week down about one percentage point. the nasdaq about 3.5 percent. third straight week of big losses for big tech. no drama here. what are the complaints about the fed? i know it is a sport to complain about the fed -- i've done it myself. but on this occasion, what are you complaining about? too dovish or not dovish enough?

i have heard so much over the last week's about testing the fed's credibility. what is testing the fed's credibility? nothing, yields, basis points. we have been testing the fed's credibility with yields pushing higher -- we are not seeing it down. yields are up more this week than last week, the volatility of last week that made you a little nauseous, may be. looking at things right now, i see the longer end of yields rising, power becomes more diverse things get better. yields at the high end go longer and longer than they go higher. tom: this is the visible market, but the repo market does not say -- the short term liquidity market right now, i am hesitant to say it is in a state of crisis, because pros and the plumbing tell me it can be worked out effortlessly as new

issues come to market. there is a massive that right now on price down and yield up in the 10 year space. jonathan: right, chairman powell has talked about the cycle. we are talking about the moment. isn't that the issue here? chairman powell is thinking beyond 2021. i am not saying inflation does not exist, i am saying really yield has really been driving things. when we have supply constraints, when base affects kicks in, inflation will be there. the fed is looking the the next six months, beyond your 10 minute time horizon, looking at growth stocks. that is a problem right now. the dollar stronger. this could upset some things and get much stronger up your the 92 on the dollar index, up another 4/10 of 1%. the commodity market and em, and

that could be poison for that going forward. tom: carl riccadonna here with us on jobs day. you hear this debate of the fed looking out to a longer term and the reality -- of the vice chairman alluding to this earlier this week. what does the fed you if there is instability in the short term paper market? what is there to do list this morning, what is there to do list in march? carl: the to do list for short term liquidity issues is basically dealing with reverse repo rates and if it looks like funding is getting too rich heading towards the march fomc meeting, they could tinker with those levers at the time of the meeting, and that should push things back in alignment with what they want. this is something chairman powell has said would be there go to tool and something they have tremendous confidence would

be effective. there are some idiosyncrasies here, but this is not some kind of unmooring a financial conditions. tom: i take your point here. the bottom line is the fed has the tools to do what it takes if they have to act, right? carl: absolutely. there are specific idiosyncrasies in terms of this money. these are technical issues that can be dealt with, perhaps clumsily, but this is something that is very interesting to money market folks but will not have broader economic consequences. lisa: one thing that will is inflation, and this huge inflation conundrum. most people are expecting a short term inflation spike. the fed is looking beyond that, looking towards a low-flation kind of market, which is the

reason why they can afford to stay dovish. i will point do they have to act sooner than they have indicated, because inflation starts to run a little too hot? carl: well, jon highlighted a lot of areas where we are seeing some signs of inflation, although i would argue food inflation will be one of the canaries in the coal mine of this dollar trend. we see the dollar strengthen. that will put the lid on some transitory inflation pressures. where we are not seeing inflation is wage inflation, and we will not have any sustainable increase in inflation that would worry the fed unless we start to see wage pressures. we have to run the economy hot, we have to absorb the slack in the labor market, which is currently immense, before we start see the type of inflation which would cause the fed to

change its reaction function. just to put numbers around that, if we look at the jobs deficit -- so where we stand in terms of employment relative to pre-pandemic levels -- it is about 10 million jobs in deficit, meaning we are 10 million jobs lower than february last year. that is immense slack in the labor market. if we put that back in the unemployment rate, we are talking unemployment in the vicinity of 9.5% to 10%. when you're talking 10% in the u.s. economy, we do not have an inflation problem. and if we look at the jobs deficit after the 2007 to 2009 recession, it is about 8 million. lisa: but in fairness, this is a completely different recession and we have a completely different fiscal impulse, coming in with a firehose of cash. janet yellen saying we will have

full employment if we go ahead with fiscal support staff. do you think, by the end of next year, we can talk about the wage increases that start over in the fed's hand? carl: we start seeing some welcome wage inflation, a healthy development for the economy. the timeline janet yellen has laid out may be aggressive. we will see how it plays out. that is the difference between what fiscal stimulus should do in theory versus what it does in reality. a brief has some wise words on that front, that it does not always work out, to paraphrase. we have -- in the meantime, i have a book recommendation for tom keene if we want to understand what jay powell and the fed are doing. and that is "tom sawyer," when he tricked his friend to doing

work for him. that is exactly what jay powell is doing at the moment, letting the markets do the heavy lifting. we need look no further than the housing sector to see how this is playing out. immodest back and yields and mortgage rates. we have seen a rollover -- a modest backup in yields and mortgage rates. we have seen a rollover. tom: was "tom sawyer" and " hucklberry finn -- "huckleberry finn" inflicted on you? jonathan: no. i have had no idea what has been going on. that is the joke, who is babe ruth? how ridiculous is this episode? carl: he is right in the sweet spot and really nailing it. he nailed it in terms of a

crisis response, acting more aggressively than many thought was appropriate, and in hindsight, that turned out to be very appropriate. he is ready to show his hawkish feathers if need be. lisa's talking about this downturn being very different from the prior downturn -- this economy has not changed its stripes. pre-pandemic, we had about 3.5% on the unemployment rate, inflation was trending sideways and wage inflation was trending lower, and the debate was whether the phillips curve still held up or not. if we are getting back to full employment, we are getting back to that economy. there is not a major inflation threat. the fed can deal with it if it arises. in the meantime, they can continue to explore how hot they can run the economy without generating inflation pressure. in the december fomc meeting, people were worried the fed is not dealing with financial conditions getting away with

themselves. as soonest things start to move in the other direction, now everyone is saying he is an uber dove and he does not care about the markets -- natural market forces are starting to cool down some of the froth from the end of last year. jonathan: karl, thank you. we joke about the equity market moving things, but big tech correcting. is that the reason for the fed to step in? tom: there is no history of that. they are not going to step in there. i will say this. greenspan was very good about this. in every economic textbook, chapter 23 or 24 is on the equity market. a lot of people in that racket forget about the indication of a greater equity market. chairman powell does not want a correction right now. he certainly does not want a standard enforced bear market right now. jonathan: you just do not see

much of that right now. lisa: not yet. here is the worry -- if you get a risk off field, how much -- we have seen the worst start to the year since the 1980's when you take a look at how much the losses have come in based on that rate rise and based on the fact that people are not going as much there for a safe haven. you start to wonder how much that will feed on itself and create a tightening, even though the data comes in well. jonathan: things will get better -- that is the story, that is the market. if you are in opposition for that, sorry, you got things wrong. lisa: although people will be sorry who work at those companies who want to borrow if they cannot bar at that rate. jonathan: the same kind of rate compared to a month ago, two months ago. lisa: but this is the reason why jay powell did not push back. at some point, there will be a tipping point. we are not anywhere close, and

that seemed to be the point. jonathan: counting you down to a pays will report at 8:30 eastern. your yield comes in a couple of basis points to 155. the equity futures with a lift of eight points, up about 2/10 of 1%. how is the nasdaq doing? nasdaq down. you need to step back in. nasdaq is up. lisa: it is up? it was down a little bit ago. jonathan: being incredibly sarcastic. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: senate democratic leaders have to pull off a balancing act. they need to get through the amendment process for president biden's 1.9 trillion dollars stimulus package and come out with a bill all of the democrats will support. at the same time, they cannot

lose the house. that is likely to extend the timetable package into the weekend. the biden administration will soon have to settle a bitcoin fight it did not even start. the trump proposed rules that would require financial services firms to reveal the identities of cryptocurrency holders. analysts say the price of digital currencies will plummet. the ceo of qualcomm says customers are beating up semi conductors at an unprecedented pace. they tried to ease concerns this will create glut later on. about 90% of qualcomm's supply has been ordered by customers. and a sign that -- read it hired its first chief financial officer, according to

the new york officer -- the new york times. his job will be to draw out recording functions. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta . this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have been faced with

something that is a very confounding virus. that is the very sobering part in the humiliating part, the things that have made us humble about this is what this virus has taught us. it has been a painful learning experience. jonathan: a humbling experience for everybody. dr. fauci there. good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. s&p 500 pushing higher about six points. about 0.16%. the yield in about a basis point. going into the payroll support at 8:30 eastern, dollars strength. tom: i think the -- i like the dollar strength on yen. but you have to watch tick by tick on yield, up to four

decimal points, which is important. through that 1.61 a few days ago, it was a shock. jonathan: it will be in -- tom: mike chandler was brilliant at venting burn a few minutes ago, saying there is so much going on tangential. one of those things is the pandemic. andrew pekosz has given assignments if ability, johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. i am asking you what is the path to getting younger vaccinated? is it a routine path or is it learning as you go, as so many people do not want to get vaccinated you might as well want to go younger. dr. pekosz: when you look at the vaccine acceptance bulls out there -- acceptance polls out

there, 18 and older, we could have a path to getting to that level of herd immunity that would tremendously reduce the amount of cases here. immunizing the children is another thing that will take a little bit of time, because those clinical trials, some are ongoing, some have not even started yet. if we can hit that goal of 300 million vaccine doses, as president biden has suggested we may have by may or june, then a strategy of immunizing adults is a feasible path. tom: the three of us are celebrity load stones. we hang on everything -- i am asking you, are you surprised you have not seen more celebrities vaccinated, more of a marketing campaign to say, to a cross section of america, you're not going to die from this?

dr. pekosz: right now, given the targeted path of the campaign, it has been difficult to roll out those kind of immunization strategies and those kind of advertising strategies. over the next couple of weeks, we will see a massive change in terms of moving towards this mass vaccination and towards ad campaigns that will push individuals to do that. we may, in fact, see some of that coming forward. i think it is a little too early to do that, particularly if you think about young celebrities who would not qualify for the vaccine at this point in time. tom: people like jon ferro. jonathan: i am knowing tom keene this morning, really am trying. [laughter] the greatest marketing tool for this vaccine with to tell people what freedoms they would get from getting a vaccine. how close are we to doing that? dr. pekosz: the cdc will be putting out guidelines soon about what vaccinated people should be able to do. i think they will basically talk

about the fact that masks will still be recommended because it is relatively low hanging fruit. i know it has been controversial, but the reality is masking up, even if vaccinated, should be a straightforward thing to continue. then the question is what will we be able to do once the supply is not a limiting factor? i think it is important to make sure we are not stratifying when there are so many people who want to get the vaccine but cannot. once we start rolling out the vaccine more, we will see pathways forward with i think first workplace openings will be the primary thing, so people can get back to working on site, then moving from there will be things like schools and other activities that can then open to some degree. jonathan: your daily average now 2.0 4 million doses per day in the past week in america. lisa: the problem is it is a race. in the meantime, you have states

trying to rapidly reopen despite the fact they are case numbers were way above even where they were in november, let alone before then. there is a question of whether we will risk winning the race if we continue with this pace of reopening, texas, perhaps, getting the most publicity, but it is everyone else, new york included. dr. pekosz: absolutely. at this stage in the game, we do not have enough people vaccinated, nor do we have a timeline are seeing exactly how many people will be vaccinated in the near future. we have to keep public health interventions in place. many states have stopped their rapid decrease in cases they saw during the month of february and have plateaued out and have plateaued out at levels consistent with the high rates in summer and spring, where we really instituted major shutdowns. people have to remember we are still not out of the woods yet. we are making good progress. signs in the future with the vaccine are good. but for the short term, we need

to reinvest in public health interventions. jonathan: good to see you, as always, andrew pekosz on the situation in the united states and beyond. a .4% fully vaccinated in america -- 8.4% fully vaccinated in america. and this is not about celebrities are getting well-known people out getting the vaccine, it is about telling people these are the keys to freedom, the keys to ending this thing, and they have to tell us what we can do. tom: you are 100% correct, but this is america, so celebrity-based. sorry. the biggest case was i believe trump received the vaccine and did not go out. the most important thing that happened this week was a lovely dolly parton went out and got the vaccine. the single most important thing that happened in the pandemic. lisa: no. tom, do you really think that? tom: yes, i really think dolly

parton, on camera, getting the vaccine is a stunning statement for a huge body of america. lisa: the people i speak to want to know, to your point, can they go out without risking spreading the virus once vaccinated? i am hearing for my friends that their kids are seeing their grandparents again for the first time in a year, and you are hearing that more and more. the more that gets advertised, the family reunions, the idea you can have friends over for dinner -- this is what will change it for me. maybe i am not as much of a celebrity lodestone as -- jonathan: i think tom just like the song. tom: look, from 1959 -- there is a huge body of america that knows "puppy love," dolly parton. frankly, everybody would like to see you get vaccinated, jon ferro. lisa: everyone?

tom: we can see that tattoo he has got -- lisa: we are just having separate conversations. jonathan: it is payrolls friday, believe it or not. [laughter] coming up, priya misra. we advance a quarter of 1%. believe it or not, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> a year ago the era of low inflation and low rates and good growth is probably over. >> global growth is going to move higher this year. >> it is a real battle between what the market thinks will happen and the fed wanting to say, hold your horses. >> big story will be what happens to growth. >> as we go into this crisis, it will be our -- harder to get all those people back to work. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: payrolls 90 minutes away. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am jonathan ferro. here's a number. 198 is the range. i have no idea what tom keene is