>> a year ago the era of low inflation and low rates and good growth is probably over. >> global growth is going to move higher this year. >> it is a real battle between what the market thinks will happen and the fed wanting to say, hold your horses. >> big story will be what happens to growth. >> as we go into this crisis, it will be our -- harder to get all those people back to work. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: payrolls 90 minutes away. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am jonathan ferro. here's a number. 198 is the range. i have no idea what tom keene is

up to today. get ready for the second hour. tk, let's focus. jobs, jobs, jobs. tom: i'm going to go to mark chandler again. i'm sorry, the audio was talking to me. i'm going to focus on jobs. and i with mark chandler there is so much going on that i'm going to say our guest coming up, priya misra, as our guest of the day. these are game changing changes. that get you out to the research through the weekend to get to monday. when you dovetail that into the repo market challenges, i am sorry, you got to wrap all of this market talk around the jobs report. jonathan: so far so good. so far chairman powell some how seems more comfortable with last week's price action. lisa: the question is, when he is he going to budge?

is he going to give a stronger message at some point? you have been talking about how we don't see stress yet in corporate credit. at the same time, what point do they see this as a stress that could be back into the economy? tom: the message changes up that is what happens, but looking now a little bit of calm. the s&p 500 shaping up as follows. we are up around .16%. at the bond market we settled down at 156. euro-dollar, 132. -- $119.32. lisa: we've got deepening deficits, but those deficits being incurred to ignite the labor market, which is what we are going to focus on and about an hour and a half. this is spread is massive. the idea we could get -35,000

jobs in the month or as much as 500,000 jobs added. consensus is bumping up against 200,000. these numbers start to matter? are we open enough? probably not, yet this is the metric the fed is watching. today at 1:00, interesting to see how much shale comes back. opec leaning into some of their production curbs. we are going to see oil prices maintain the gains they have seen. the senate continues deliberating over those final aspect of the stimulus. we are expecting about over the weekend. how much momentum into the next bill they are expecting? tom: maybe they lose some momentum by isolating people. that was the fear of the former treasury, larry summers. tom, i go back to it we have revisited. just how disappointed this administration is, but some of

the big questions have come from democrats. tom: the politics are there, but it is swept aside by $1.9 trillion of stimulus. over to the market, the recovery of the economy, we are tossing around 8% gdp like it is a done deal. says who? tom: let's bring it -- jonathan: let's bring in priya misra, td securities. priya: we were looking for 150 or 145 before yesterday. why we changed it was we heard from chair powell that he was not worried about the moves that happened. which i would argue, only part of that move was for healthy reasons. the other part was supply fears, fear the fed might step away. we have a ton of treasuries to takedown. we heard from chair powell that it is not disorderly enough. the market is going to tantrums some more.

i think the market is looking ahead. every market is looking to the end of covid, but at the end of covid we have a certain post-covid normal, but we also have a lot of treasuries. i think the fed has a really high bar. to taper, they have a shorter bar to hike. it is really the long and that i think is going to force the fed's hand, but we are not there yet. i think rates are going to keep rising until we get that disorderly market functioning or we get that persistent tightening in financial conditions. i think it is fair -- jonathan: i think it is fair to say that seven year auction was disorderly. we have 38 billion dollars worth of 10 year notes as well. to what degree are you concerned about that extra supply coming next week? priya: i am very nervous. i think we were looking for the fed chair -- we didn't get that support.

i can't say the auction will be havel. we know that auction is coming up. we don't have any more fed talk on blackout. i think the market is going to set up for that auction. there is a 20 year right after. within a week we will have two seven's again. i think every auction is going to be a stress point. does it spill over any other market? tom: do you go from a negative .642 0%? could you say that? priya: zero to me is hard to see. at that point it is going to impact the economy. we are expecting more on the inflation front. i think you get that reopening demand that is going to help inflation expectations, but i do have higher real rates. by the end of the year, still

negative. i think financial conditions could handle that. much higher is going to be hard. tom: we are waiting for your comments on the plumbing. we are looking at the 10 year duration. the overnight and repurchase market, it is extraordinary. is this a big deal of concern or does this get solved as more issuance comes out? priya: i think specifically for the 10 year repo that is trading negative, i think that gets solved as supply comes in. for the front-end plumbing, as a separate issue where we have a lot of reserves. hopefully the fed eases the slr constraints. i think very front-end rates stay low, but the specific point you are raising, specialness in repo contracts for the 10 year, i think that is going to ease. tom: lisa, this is critical.

our true expert on this agrees with miss misra. lisa: it is interesting if you look at the technicals. japanese investors were selling a lot of those off the run treasuries, which raises a question on about the market, in general, who is going to buy all of this debt? you say every auction is going to be a stress point. real rates are rising not because of inflation expectations, not because of growth, but just because she or supply is outstripping demand. where is the demand going to come to on the edges if the fed is not picking up more? priya: we look at last year, u.s. banks were large buyers. they are flush with reserves. they actually had a capital exemption for buying treasuries. i hope that is extended. i think banks will step in. at some point asset managers

will step in. you have to attract people from other asset classes. this the saddest thing about the treasury market is it is losing some of the hedging property. when equities fall, rates don't fall. if i looking for the best hedge, it is hard for me to get excited about the 10 year unless you are at 2%. which is one of the underpinnings for why we see rates keep rising. jonathan: let's get everyone to turn the volume down. libor, what is happening? priya: we just heard from the idea of hours ago that they are ending. i think those of us in the five stages of greece, if you were in the denial stage, you've got to move out of that stage. it is like the death note has been given. some of us have been working on for years, but today was monumental in the sense that no selling libor will and this

year. dollar libor will end at the end of june 2021. tom: really emotional, john. jonathan: priya misra, thank you. td securities. tom: priya misra over cocktails can be a conversation to deadly silence. jonathan: i promised we would get it in there. let's go all the way back to the long end. 2% year end over td. tom: we are focused across this yield curve. there it is. it is 2%. got to believe a lot of people are going to follow. brent crude out to new highs moments ago. a 10 year yield not too high, but coming up nicely. what does it mean for equities? jonathan: next 12 month, this is the reopening story. what is the 10 year go?

lisa, they're thinking about the what is next? i don't think many have changed their minds about the cycle. they think we will see a similar theme after we get past this reopening boom the trend is the bond market's friend, at least in the view of people like p jim. lisa: you have investors i respect saying yields are going to go lower. we do wonder, to tom's point, what happens to equities? even goldman sachs is saying that is a recipe for a potential disruption in the equity markets. tom: finally we have jobs looming. jonathan: tom, if we get back to 0% on a real yield, growth equities are in trouble. tom: john, what are you going to do one honeywell comes out with 9% organic revenue growth?

we are not prepared for that. jonathan: nope. good morning, alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we advanced not a 10th of 1% going into your payrolls report. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloombergtv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: senate democrats are bracing for a marathon session of votes on president biden's 1.9 trillion dollars stimulus package. tim's terrain in this didn't -- the spending bill will extend the timetable into the weekend. it is a balancing act for democratic leaders. they need a bill that gets the votes of all 50 democrats without asking a revolt by progressives. the u.s. and u.k. may impose more sanctions on russia, this time over the use of chemical weapons. bloomberg has learned the countries may target moscow.

this week president biden joined the eu in sanctioning russia over the jailing of alexei navalny. china is setting a modest growth target, a signal that monetary and fiscal policy will be constrained. a contrast to major nations that are still pumping and stimulus. beijing set a growth target above 6%. meanwhile china is raising defense spending by 6.8%. that is the most in two years. in the u.k., regulators have kicked off the final countdown for libor. thanks have been told to be ready for the end of the much-maligned benchmark. libor has been at the heart of the financial system for decades, but is being based out in the wake of manipulation scandals. ebs has boosted its bonus by

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>> we think we are likely to see inflation move up during the course of this year through two

things. also the reopening effects, where businesses will be potentially hit a lot of demand, which is a good thing. you could see bottlenecks. we are inclined to see those as transient. jonathan: that is the message from jay powell. let's skip the market check and get straight to this story. the chairman agrees with the story about inflation this year. it will go higher. basic facts, energy, supply stores, all of that will add up to higher prices. here is the difference, they want to look through it. the word you will hear again and again is transient. that will be the debate that we live with for the next six months. tom: we're going to see the micro data as well. john harmon just publishing on payrolls. that is vastly different than catherine man.

you're going to have the ebb and flow of the jobs report, but far more important is the gdp path and the certitude of a percent gdp. you get it, it's fine. if you don't get it, it's not. jonathan: what happens to the yield curve if we get it and the fed keeps with that message? that yield curve is going to get steep. unless they lose credibility and you start to believe the fed blinks. then you get that move at the front end. the volatility we could get around this debate could be incredible. if that spills into risk assets, i know that is what many people are looking for in the months to come. they start to dip their toes in when that happens. tom: the risk is there and the ebb and the ebb and flow is there. we are seeing all sorts of stuff this morning. the research this morning is exceptionally risky. we are going to see a

recalibration into monday of where everybody sets. jonathan: this is the story, lisa. if you think all of the stuff is going to happen and you don't believe the fed hikes interest rates, that is a green light for higher interest rates. lisa: i think the fear is legitimate. let's say the economy does not over perform. but the u.s. has to increase its deficit that much more substantially. could we see yields go even higher, tom, even at a time of slowing growth simply because of the supply demand dynamic? tom: ian lincoln, who is hugely respective, he goes out with an eye on 1.7%, moving toward where priya misra is. kevin cirilli as our chief washington correspondent. he knows the causes of this conversation and that $1.9 trillion umph.

is there anyone who believes it will be less than one point $9 trillion? kevin: you could see the final number be a little bit lower, especially if they are able to get out some of the funding for mentation of certain projects. also they will be hovering around $1.9 trillion. tom: what is a look like? i haven't heard the probabilities of a so-called infrastructure effort. kevin: yesterday president biden met with a group of lawmakers in the oval office about infrastructure. i spoke with congressman garamendi. he is a democrat from california. he said the administration is not putting a price tag number right now, that they want to actually look at all of the projects that have to get done, but that is going to be the biggest question. what is the price tag number that republicans would be able to get on board with? this is a massive undertaking, and again, coming shortly after

you are spending $1.9 trillion. the price tag of the infrastructure is where it is going to be incredibly controversial. the american society of civil engineers put out a proposal early this week that is said to address all of the infrastructure problems it would be more than $2 trillion. lisa: i'm going to disagree with tom on your behalf. tom said you don't care about that conversation we were having about treasury yields. this is the key to what is happening with spending in the washington, d.c., with rising interest rates, rising borrowing costs crimping some of these ambitious plans. i'm wondering how much you are hearing in capitol hill, lots of discussion as they watch treasury yields go up about what the limits of their spending will be? kevin: yesterday jay powell throwing some cold water on the inflationary talk that has been

coming out of washington, d.c., as you all know in terms of where this goes from the senate inking committee, -- senate banking committee, i think honestly republicans are starting to get out their calculators and say you can't afford to be spending this much money. that is why i think, to talk about a $2 trillion infrastructure plan, it's going to be hard for democrats to garner much republican support. jonathan: kevin, speed is important now. if they wait, things get better, and things have gotten better over the past week. two months earlier than anticipated, yet the price tag for the relief plan has not changed. isn't that nervousness around the story now if they wait long it gets harder and harder to push through a package this size? kevin: yes, and especially as this goes on and on. we talked about texas this week,

florida, two public and-controlled states, but look at new york with governor cuomo. let's be candid. he is a very weak political governor right now. he is facing intense pressure from every which way, from the left, from the right, everywhere. at a time in which various sectors in the new york are very frustrated with has -- with what has been going on -- i alluded to this earlier, but when you have broadway saying they are starting to europe and in april, we are heading toward what the interpretation is in washington, d.c. is that we are headed toward the end of this pandemic. tom: we are headed toward the end of this pandemic, and then what is, how do you sustain gdp and productivity and yet also begin to pare down the debt responsibly? for that into the infrastructure debate. kevin: there was a moment this week at the white house when president biden took a semiconductor chip and held it

up for the cameras. and said that that shortage is really impacting the supply chains here in america. that no american should face empty grocery shelves because of supply chains. if the infrastructure debate is linked to cybersecurity, manufacturing jobs, and not just roads and bridges, i think the administration, based upon my reporting, will find more republicans who are willing to listen. jonathan: if it is under the veil of nationalism, there will be a lot of support on the other cited the aisle for industrial policy. kevin, it is good to see you. kevin cirilli, bloomberg washington correspondent. to round out the week later, i think that is the story, the democrats want relief for people. the problem they've got is the quickest we we open the better

things get, the harder it is to push through. tom: that would be true. i totally agree with that. if you get there with a couple of quarters of 6% gdp, the debate changes. jonathan: payrolls an hour away. ellen zentner

jonathan: from new york city, let's get to the price action live. this is "bloomberg surveillance." your equity market up 25%. adding for a weekly loss on the nasdaq. the poison comes from the bond markets. 10 year nominal yields on the week, the poison is toxic, tom. pushing 156 on a 30 year, 230. how do we react to a blowup payrolls report? tom: exactly where i was. jonathan: all the way down to -35. if we get one and these yields go higher, if you think we have had a route in the big tech, it could get worse. tom: what is your number on a

156? jonathan: for me it has to come from the real yield. that is what has really hit around big tech. that is what has really weighed on this market. here's the story for the federal reserve. switch up the board. it is high yield spreads. last time the threat was really challenged -- i'm not talking about last year, i'm talking about outside of crisis times -- was late 2018 when high yield spreads gapped higher. this is where we are right now. funding costs are higher, but look at spreads. 326. no crisis here, no stress. that is where you hear the comfort in chairman powell's voice. i'm sure he didn't like the volatility, but what do you want the fed to do here? i am hearing two different complaints here.

more dovish because they want them to cap what has happened at the long end, less dovish because they believe there is a lot of inflation coming. i don't think the chairman can win right now. tom: that's the point. he can't win right now. the best thing for him to do is to extend the x axis. he's going to wait and wait, and as they go into the quiet period, and i believe it is the march 17 meeting that is going to help out. jonathan: they are talking past each other. the chairman is focused on the shape of the cycle and what this looks like coming out of this. he expects the same thing you expect, higher inflation, supply constraints. yes we will get that, it will kick in. the chairman thinks it is transitory. that is just a structural issue between central banks and market participants. it is living in the moment as a market participant and trying to think of the shape of the cycle as the chair fed now. let's get you some movers.

here is romaine. romaine: what happens in an hour might set the tone for how we end the week. it has been a relatively dour week, but i do want to focus on one of the bright spots. that is the energy space. the s&p 500 energy sector are performing the s&p for the fifth straight week. even outperforming tech. a lot of that has to do with an increase in demand and the fact that opec-plus says it is going to stand pat. a big bet i the saudi's that that whole drill, baby drill era and make the u.s. may be over. they seem to think that drill era may be heating up. resources has already said they are coming back with regard to their next year. marathon oil up 11% over the last four days.

pretty much everything in this space is up 20% over the last few weeks now. people are saying with oil, wti flirting with 66 and you have a similar story with guards to rent crude, a lot of forecasts that $100 a barrel is not the fantasy some have said it would be three or four months ago. this is going to ramp up production in the permian basin. tom: thanks so much. greatly appreciated this morning on this job stay. brent crude, 68.60. i am on the watch. we will see if we get there. i know for certain i have never been more distracted. yes it is a pandemic, it also what is going on in the bond markets. it is time i get less distracted and look at job stay. i hope you agree ellen zentner is wonderful to do this, with

morgan stanley. talk about the backdrop of jobs as it links into your 6% and 7% economic growth. ellen: the backdrop of jobs is important. we are passing more fiscal stimulus this month. that is going to continue to build the bridge, hopefully to when jobs are coming back and over-fest. you need that bridge in order to have those government transfers help households, help workers without jobs until we get those jobs back. the income growth has to be there in order to drive consumption in gdp as high as we have got it. we don't think today's report is going to be more than a trickle of jobs back, but in a couple of months we are going to see that barreling back. tom: this is really important. many people above you at 198,000.

how does morgan stanley perceive markets will react to a sending or -- to a zentner 198,000? ellen: from an economist standpoint we will for you to death. the difference is pretty much nothing when you think of the wide standard deviations in this data. but the market is looking for any positive data in order to continue to justify this march higher in the 10 year. if we get something above, it goes beyond market expectations, especially 500,000, which is one of the top and estimates from bloomberg contributor's, certainly that is something bound to send the 10 year higher, right? the market is looking for things to justify this move. is a higher 10-year justify? absolutely.

you're going to be in a completely different spot. the direction of travel is fine. the market should be basing in a better outlook. it is just the volatility and speed that we get there tends to jonathan: jonathan: do you think he is being conduct? ellen: i don't think he is sending a message to markets. they don't speak the same language. the fed can still send a strong message. powell's message yesterday was things are good, things are getting better, there is even less downside risk to inflation. there is probably upside risk, and it is transitory, that we are still not going to do

anything. that is risk-on. but it was not said forceful enough. i think it sort of went over people's heads that we are watching. the fed needs to be much more forceful, and most likely he will take advantage of that at the march 17 meeting when he does a two and a. they are going to be challenged on this as data continues to roll in. it is just confirming a good outlook. the market should want to take that further. jonathan: i think you have nailed it. this is going to be the debate for the next several months. effects startek again and we start to get that tug-of-war. all will be really fascinating, a real test of the fed's credibility but, if we got a break out at the front end of the yield curve. tom: pick your companies. amazon, we spoke to exxon yesterday, love delta airlines.

how do those companies perform given a zentner 7% gdp? tom: if yields go higher because growth gets better that's a good story. i wonder if we start to get that challenge at the front end. if we start to get a real tug-of-war and belief the fed could blink, even though they have told us what they expect and they have told us what they will do and it happens, which is nothing? ellen: that's why i think it is going to be quite the communication challenge for them. one way they can keep the front-end pinned is altering the timing or pushing out the timing of when the fed draws down its balance sheet. even if the fed starts tapering in the january 2022 as we expect and you taper at every meeting, which would be in line with the pace that they taper that in 2014, he would be looking at the

bulk of 2022 that it takes to finish tapering the balance sheet. it will not raise rates before they finish tapering the balance sheets. there is only so far forward rate hikes can come. the front-end can be addressed that way. we think at the march meeting, even though they forecast for growth, maybe show a bit more inflation in the near term. we think they are going to fail to show immediate placement on the dot plot on an expectation that they will raise before 2023. that is going to send a strong message. lisa: there is a bigger idea behind everything we are talking about, which is at what point does market turmoil or a selloff in the riskier assets affect the underlying economy? this is a key question as we take a look at frost getting blown off the top, which is healthy. at what point should the fed start to care about a selloff in

stocks or a selloff in the credit if we don't necessarily see companies having to borrow money and there is not that clear-cut cut financing mechanism? ellen: that is a great question. essentially they care when they look at underlying financial conditions and they have tightened in a way that threatens outlook. even though the 10 year rising is fine, they don't like the volatility in the movement, because it creates uncertainty. the fed likes to be certain about its outlook. when you strip out the yields right now and you look at financial conditions elsewhere, they have just moved sideways. that is why chair powell can sound comfortable about the increases in the 10 year. he mentioned the stock market and credit. the stock market, low on their list of concerns. it doesn't have a strong

transfer effect to the rest of the economy. credit does. high yield is still performing ok, right? but if spreads, even in high yield, widen, funding levels are not as favorable. that starts to affect the credit quality chain and starts to drag out spreads. that has an immediate impact on the economy, especially the labor market. that is when the fed gets concerned. jonathan: that is when i think you get a very different chairman powell. allen, great to catch up. ellen zentner of morgan stanley. looking for 6.5% gdp growth in 2021. compare that to the fed. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: senate democratic leaders have to pull off a balancing act.

they need to get through the amendment process for president biden's one point $9 trillion stimulus package and come up with the bill all 50 democrats can support. at the same time they cannot afford to lose progressives, will have to agree on the senate version for the resident -- before the president can sign it. that likely to extend the timetable into the weekend. the burden from the coronavirus is weighing heavily on hospitals in new york. new york's total hospitalizations have dropped by more than one third in a month. its current rate is the highest in the u.s.. it is happening while andrew cuomo takes steps toward rolling back pandemic protections. the biden administration will have to settle fight it didn't start. the trump administration up proposed rules that require service firms to reveal the identities of cryptocurrency holders. the goal is to prevent money-laundering laundering, but analysts say prices -- expected

the prices to plummet. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> understand that the china relationship is always tenuous. there are many factors to that

relationship that could impact and affect what china decides to do. it is necessary for us to continue to look for new markets and deeper markets. jonathan: tom vilsack there. from new york city this morning, good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. it is payrolls friday. the equity market shaping up as follows. the s&p up .8%. the fx market, euro, weaker. euro-dollar, 19.35. an crude with a 65 handle. he policy era, if you want to call it that of opec-plus, and tom, unpredictable as ever over at opec. not willing to step in against this move just yet. tom: up at dollar .74.

-- $1.74. it is a fascinating jobs day. the backdrop here is higher and higher rates. thomas or like is bloomberg's chief economist. he is definitive on the linkages of chinese politics and economics with the rest of the world. we are thrilled that tom could reverse this morning. the single biggest mistake of fossils like me to believe there is not a fixed income market in asia. there is. when you look at the yield dynamics of china, does it signal? -- what does it signal? thomas: i think we are going to see, and what the fixed income market in the china is thinking about, is a normalization of policy. china was first into the covid crisis, but they also contained it more effectively than other

countries. what we are hearing from the premier at the national people's congress today is that for 2021 china is back on a steady growth trajectory. they are going for growth above 6%. that is going to being -- to mean a slow normalization of fiscal policy. lisa: tom, normalization, this means it is going to be a slower target for growth than people had expected. china for years has been an engine for growth. china prioritizing things like the tech war with the united states. how much does this affect the entire region's outlook? the idea that china is not going to grow as fast as many people thought? thomas: there is a tension here. a lot of people say, you know what? growth targets, that is part of the old world. that is not how you manage a modern economy. china and needs to move toward a

system where they think about inflation and unemployment. so, in that sense even setting a target is a kind of step back for china this year. but, as you know, the target is modest. they have gone for above 6%. we think this year, with the slow base of 2020 as a kind of accelerator, they are actually going to grow above 8%. the target is there, the target looks back to an older way of managing an economy, but relative to where we think they are going to come out, 6% growth target is fairly modest. lisa: to tom keene's point earlier, this idea of the financing channels, this idea that the people's bank of china does not come in and provide more support, more liquidity at any sign of turmoil.

they are allowing yields to rise. what does that mean in terms of how high yields could go there, in terms of how many companies could default, and the stress you could see around the margins in china? thomas: so, financial stress is a perennial concern in china. the debt to gdp ratio has rocketed up over the past decade. it is now at an even more elevated level because of the covid stimulus. but we have seen is that concern about the kind of china bubble bursting has often been overplayed. yes we are going to see more defaults as policy normalizes and local governments and state firms wrestle with huge amounts of debt, so far those defaults have been painful for the individual investors concerned. they have not really sent larger ripples across the economy or even across the asian region. jonathan: china widely regarded as the factory of the world. it has been the disinflation

factory for the previous cycle. what do you read on prices in china at the consumer level and how you think that gets exported to the rest of the world? thomas: it's a great question. it came out of covid first and fastest, but that came at some cost. debt is higher than it was, and the producer side of the economy recovered much faster than the consumer side. we are seeing that play out in prices. there was more oversupply in china. the price index is stuck around the euro. what that means is for the foreseeable future we are not going to see china exporting inflation to the rest of the world. jonathan: let's continue the conversation. stay close. tom orlik there. on yields, darwin, and the path forward for chinese growth. what have we got? 37 minutes away until the payrolls report. tom: i really want to say, i'm

sorry, i'm in the camp, china is linked to the united states. if we get 7% gdp, what does that mean? china gets 9%? jonathan: china was going for pushing 7%? lisa: 8%. jonathan: that is the story, really. tom: unreal. john, in equities do i have an entry point here? jonathan: if you want to buy the nasdaq, sure. this is what savino was looking for. cyclical rotation beneath very bullish bank financials. tom: i know you sleep in your makeup, when you got done up this morning we were at 154. there is a trend there. jonathan: can i confirm that i do my own makeup and i remove it too. [laughter] lisa: glad to know. jonathan: i don't sleep in a

suit. i know some people think that happens. lisa: tom keene i am sure has slept in his bowtie. [laughter] jonathan: where are taking that? lisa, the s&p 500 up nine. [laughter] [laughter] here we go. on the bond market we look like this. thank you, guys. [laughter] tom: you killing it. jonathan: i intend to drag this out now. the equity market up nine on the s&p 500. the challenge for this benchmark has been the huge waiting in the big tech on the s&p 500. lisa: on the stronger dollar. jonathan: i will get there in a second. given what has happened with real yields, that is where the tension has come from. he won a dollar comment? lisa: at what point does the deficit matter?

this is something important. jonathan: go on. tom: can the tops catch liverpool, that is all that matters. jonathan: 30 minutes until the payrolls report. servetus running on -- servetus around mannion joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> rates are going to keep rising until we get that market functioning. >> the era of low inflation, low rates, and good growth is probably over. >> the big story going forward will be what happens to wage growth. >> as we come out of this crisis it will be harder to get all of those people back to work. >> half of the markets want better job data in the other half is scared of that because of the potential inflationary consequences. >> this is bloomberg surveillance