>> rates are going to keep rising until we get that market functioning. >> the era of low inflation, low rates, and good growth is probably over. >> the big story going forward will be what happens to wage growth. >> as we come out of this crisis it will be harder to get all of those people back to work. >> half of the markets want better job data in the other half is scared of that because of the potential inflationary consequences. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene,

jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: this is jobs day. the oddest jobs day that i can remember ever. td securities with a 2% call on the 10-year yield. jonathan: why? because she thinks things get better. where are we now, yields unchanged. jonathan: 1.57, but where were we to weeks ago? you are expanding your show the real yield out. part of the dynamic is the real yield call. could we get to 0%? jonathan: that is where the pain has come from from growth equities for gold. it is one train and has broken down and has been a huge trade when for the s&p 500 and the nasdaq 100. that is why we struggle around these levels. tom: we will get to bank of

america in just a moment. lisa abramowicz on the jobs report. i am seeing morgan stanley, citigroup more optimistic at 400. that is a big gap for market estimation. lisa: how do markets respond? you have incredible policy uncertainty. when does the fed step? that's a yields shoot higher, does the fed start to care? there's the policy concern in washington, d.c. where things look good. is there it's still the same pressure to get the bill passed? tom:tom: the special hour of this jobs report. we will get to our guest in a moment. equities lift job, but what i'm noticing out of opec plus is i am on brent crude. jonathan: i'm looking at a dollar that is stronger against the euro, the sterling come the aussie, the yen. euro-dollar, coming in at one quarter of 1%. if we get out of the question of

u.s. exceptionalism and high yields, what does that make for the fx market, the stronger u.s. dollar on the screen? tom: we will move on from that, but he watched on the taper list -- taperless tantrum. one of his themes in his weekend reading. at bloomberg intelligence. joining us now, and this is the perfect 8:00 a.m. guest to start. she has bulletproof skill sets in mathematics and philosophy. forget about the mathematics, this is a nuts jobs day. give us the equity philosophy this morning. >> the philosophy? i think it is simple. i think that we saw a strong run-up in the market last year

estimating an economic and earnings recovery. this year we are not going to get much more on the multiple expansion side, but we are going to get earnings. that is what we need to watch, how strong earnings come in. we are penciling in close to 20% earnings growth. if we see anything short of that it is a blockbuster number for earnings. what is fascinating is the market multiple expanded more than that last year. this is typical. the market anticipates good news before it happens. what i worry about is that the bulk of the news will be less good and more about inklings of inflationary pressure. do companies have the pricing power to pass that on to consumers? that is to be determined. this will be a show me year in terms of earnings, growth, in terms of the fundamental supporting a fairly lofty

multiple on the s&p 500. jonathan: to build on that while we are so challenged at the index level you have the year-end price target at 3800. why are we so challenged? savita: i think it is because of the constitution of the market. we talked about this a lot on your show. the s&p 500 is not a proxy for the u.s. economy. it is a proxy for low interest rates, disinflationary pressure, it is more defensively tilted than any other index you can look at. i think the real risk this year will be in the s&p even more so than the nasdaq. but small caps value stocks should still do ok as long as the economic recovery remains intact. i worry as we approach the end of the year that the news will go from pretty good to more negative. i think what we start to hear about is how to fund this big fiscal stimulus program. maybe we hear more rumblings around tax hikes.

in terms of the taper, i don't think if the fed starts talking about tapering their asset purchase program that will be negative to risk assets. those are the factors to watch as we progress in the year. what we are watching now is earnings, inflationary pressures enough to take a dent out of earnings? that would be negative. if companies get pricing power, that is the big positive. lisa: i think of a double whammy of risks. we have had a lot of investors say that yields have not responded to the positive sentiment that we've seen in equities. they have not baked in their earnings growth of 20%. now those yields are, they are creeping up. savita: pretty dramatically. lisa: the stock has already priced those in and is priced to perfection and are subject to disappointment. how do you walk through the double whammy is that the yields could rise hitting the relative valuation of stocks at the same time we are still getting

disappointments with respect to earnings? savita: absolutely. the way to think about investing this year is inflation protected yield. i think there what you want to do is look for dividend growth stocks. this is one of the reasons i like financials. financials offers relatively inflation protected dividends and cash returns, it participates in economic recoveries, has a low payout ratio, has room to raise dividends. other stocks like that in the consumer sectors and industrials, i think that is the way to play the year. don't get fancy. look for cheap, inflation-protected dividend yields. we have seen a run-up in a lot of the low-quality recovery plays, now i think it gets more difficult in terms of how to position your portfolio. tom: i don't mean to interrupt. but i will interrupt. tell me about revenue growth stocks. i get the earnings growth stock, the cash flow, the dividend, but

everyone is talking about a bigger, bigger, bigger economy. did i learn in my philosophy of subramanian that means revenue growth matters? savita: revenue growth and free cash flow growth. i think that's right. we are moving from a price-to-book's-driven by the cheapest stocks on anything to an environment where you want to see the revenue growers. i think what is interesting as we are seeing a market change in the sales acceleration stories. it is an obvious point, but last year was a different market. we had tech as the real revenue growth, stable revenue growth. this year we are seeing revenue growth expectations in very different pockets of the market. in consumer services sectors, industrials, i think that will be the pivot. moving from a growth in a tech-dominated market under the stay-at-home environment to a reopening play where some of

these smaller more beaten-down cyclical companies really have that revenue acceleration that is going to drive their stock prices further from here. jonathan: the energy this week, up 33% year today. how stressed do you think that story is? savita: i think energy is still a buy. if you look at evaluations, they suggest year-long-only institutional fund managers are not necessarily moving to even an equal weight position. the world is still very underweight energy. if the fed is willing to accommodate inflation for a longer time, and if we are going to be in this late cycle type of market for a longer time than normal, energy is one of the best ways to hedge against inflation. i think it is still a buy until we get to a point where it looks more expensive and the world has gotten there. lisa: we were just talking to td securities who critics

to percent yields. savita: i think 2% is achievable. i think the downsides of big tech are potentially a canned of what we've seen already. we have seen a pretty dramatic -- are akin to what we've seen already. we have seen pretty dramatic loss. i think tech is ultimately longer-term, a long-term growth story. it is a buy, but in the near term as we see the cost of capital increase in long-duration stocks, they could get hit by pricing in the new discount rate. sorry, i got to my math side. tom: very good. philosophical. jonathan: we appreciate you being here, fantastic to catch up. just to take away, tom, and we have to reiterate, the s&p 500 is not a proxy for the

underlying economy. that was true last year when the economy was go and the s&p was doing better. maybe for the headline s&p 500 to struggle with that. tom: we have a 10 year yield coming up now and highs for the day. the yield is talking about the more optimism this morning. we are not sure where we were four days ago. you have to respect the 10 year yield. the 10 year yield that gets through where we were yesterday. i am working on my northern accent of the united kingdom. i'm trying to go like this, and it's not working. jonathan: just to confirm, this is not a northern accent. for the second time. anything north of london. tom: i was going to say north of the british library. jonathan: you're not alone.

coming up, payrolls is 20 minutes away, looking forward to the coverage coming up. we will catch up with jim and blackrock and hear from the white house at 9:30 eastern. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: senate democrats are bracing for a marathon session of votes on president biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package. republican attempts to rein in the spending bill will extend the timetable for passage into the weekend. it is a balancing act for democratic leaders. they need to emerge with a bill that gets the votes of all 50 democrats without risking a revolt by progressives in the house. the u.s. and u.k. may impose more sanctions on russia over the use of chemical weapons. bloomberg learned the two countries may target moscow's

oligarchs or even go after russia sovereign debt. this week president biden join the eu in sanctioning russia over its jailing of politician alexei navalny. china is setting a modest growth target this year, signal that monetary and fiscal policies will be restrained as contrast to other major nation still pumping and stimulus. beijing set a growth target of above 6%. that is well below what economists had forecasted. china is raising defense spending the most in two years. making the first papal visit to iraq. he plans to tell the country's dwindling number of christians they should stay put and help rebuild the nation after years of fighting. iraq was estimated to have 1.5 million christians prior to the u.s.-led invasion in 2003. now most have fled. church officials say there are only a few hundred thousand remaining. microsoft is in danger of losing a 10 billion dollar cloud computing contract from the

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>> there's good reason to expect job creation to pick up in the coming months, and we need not

because we are 10 million jobs short of where we were. 10 million fewer people are working then were working when the pandemic hit. it is a lot of ground we have to cover. jonathan: chairman powell on the labor market. your jobs report their teen minutes away. treasury yields creeping higher. the 10 year yield up a basis point or two. call it two. tom keene your high of last week, 161. tom: we are now essentially on an intraday level basis out to new highs. you are correct. we are out to 1.61. what is important to me is the relentless move we are seeing in the yield into this jobs report. jonathan: this week was a bigger week move higher for 10 year treasury moves than last week. it was about seven last week. it was the volatility that

jarred everyone. chairman powell is staying dovish. he is staying dovish. the front in is penned and i think people are believe him -- people believe him he is not going to move. tom: -0.64% on the real yield. by the time we get to the real yield this afternoon, maybe -.50. jonathan: thanks for the plug. if we are there we will be talking about the equity market. if you look at the s&p 500, the breakdown, i.t. by 2.3%. energy up by 2.5%. energy has had a massive leak but only 3% of the s&p 500. that won't do the heavy lifting at the index level. tom: we are thrilled on this historic jobs day you are with us on radio and tv. what we will do, the repo market is shreds, liquidity's mysteries out there, calling for 2% yield over td securities, we've talked

to a number of economists about the fabric of america. no one has done that for decades like james glassman at j.p. morgan chase. he is out there for the bank, out there for stir jamie dimon, talking to their customers. jim glassman, good morning. what do you see across this nation? james: you see the gdp of the goods economy is higher than we would have been had there not been a pandemic. it is the service sector that is struggling. gdp in the service sector is down 7.5% from where we would have been. we know why that is. we are asking restaurants, bars, fitness centers, the hospitality sector is struggling. that is why i think every day that passes i'm getting more hopeful because i see the way forward. i think by the end of this year we will have unemployment back where it started because we get our hands around the virus and we help the people who are still struggling. jobs will come back.

tom: i know you're not on speaking terms with michael from the university of chicago, that is understood, but when you hear for rowley say we are going to introduce jobs through 2021, how do you respond to the young turk? jim: i think you finally figured it out. this is a natural disaster. this is not a business cycle. we got a lot of help coming through the pipeline. consumers are sitting on a boat load of cash that built up last year. i think it is quite reasonable to be forecasting we will have our economy back to full employment. unemployment down to 3.5% to 4% by the end of this year. once you see all of the support coming from washington you will be a little less skeptical. i think that is the right idea. as chairman powell says we do have unemployment down 10 million below where we were. it doesn't all show up in

unemployment because people dropped out, but i think this nightmare is coming to an end then we will see this thing get behind us by the end of this year. lisa: you talk about the savings rate. this is a point of great contention. there's $1.5 trillion in american savings. this is going to be deployed into the economy. how much will pay down existing debt loads that were built up over the coronavirus pandemic, and how much will go in the remaining pay banks because job opportunities are not there in a way that people get confidence from? jim: part of the reasons that savings built up is because we didn't have as many ways to spend the money. if you listen to the real estate industry you will realize there's something big going on. i think some of this money will be used when people figure out a down payment on new property -- i think we have almost 1.7 trillion dollars of extra savings that built up last year beyond what we normally do.

i think when you look at the history of the consumer, when you -- when consumers see that kind of a buildup in savings they can usually figure out what to do with it. i think you will see a lot of it coming out. right now you don't see a lot of it because they are still many parts of the economy, the service sector, we cannot spend the money on. open the economy up and you'll see a lot of this money spent. lisa: people are good at spending money, but will they spend it in the same degree they use to into services, or will it go into homes, into the durable goods we have seen get a boom throughout the pandemic? jim: i think you will see more and the services sector, because that is the one area that stands out. you can see why this is not happening. we are not going to disney world, i'm not going to the symphony, i can't go to the gym in many cases. those are the sectors that have been held back, the ones that will see a revival. human beings, we are social animals. when the coast is clear we are going to want to get out there

and meet friends in restaurants and do things. i think you will see a lot of this money gets spent again. some will be real estate. the real estate values are going up dramatically. but i think you will see some normalization in the service sector. jonathan: good to catch up on this payrolls friday. jim glassman. 10 year yield in the treasury market creeping a little higher close to 1.58. gilt yields and the u.k. up by five basis points. tom: seriously, what have they done? jonathan: they issued more debt and the outlook looks good for debt as we open the economy at some point in the u.k. in the next couple of months. we got to 20 basis points almost since the start of the year and the analysts on the south side chase this. i month after revising their forecast to 75 basis points on the 10-year they looking for 1%. we are chasing it.

tom: when the chancellor puts the red briefcase on and shows it to people, what is in their? -- in there? his lunch? jonathan: i believe the budget. tom: the budget in america is like eight inches thick -- jonathan: and often doesn't happen. it is implemented and people get excited about it, tom. should i talk about markets? lisa: the u.k. treasury yields, the gilt yields did bleed into the rest of the finance market globally. it's been a big story for everyone. jonathan: you guys are out of control today. 15, 16 points higher. 37.81 on the s&p 500. the yield creeping a little higher. here the estimates. yield payroll reports coming up in 4.5 minutes. your estimate, 200,000. the range as it has been,

wide, wide, wide. plus 500 thousand the bottom end of the range -35,000. the payrolls report is around the corner. michael mckee is reacting to those numbers, breaking them down, then jeff rosenberg of blackrock. this is (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you?

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jonathan: 10 seconds to go until the payrolls report. your equity market looks like this. 15 points in the s&p. the payrolls report, here is mike mckee. good morning -- mike: good morning, jon. 379,000 jobs were created in february. let's call it returned. in the private sector, 465,000 jobs. remember in january, there were 6000 created in the private sector. and in norma's number. -- an enormous number. a lot of people in government probably losing jobs. the turn is quite amazing.

manufacturing payrolls come in 21,000 higher. 14,000 fewer people in manufacturing. if you were making your bets based on that, we were wrong. hourly earnings at .2%. the unemployment rate is at 6.2%. i will look at if that is a good news type of fall. average weekly hours falls, comes down from 35. they revised it to 34.6. the massive increase in jobs taking away some of the pressure. this is the jay powell section. the participation rate is at 61.4%, same as january. the employment to population ratio, 57.6% from 57.5%. that accounts for the people who

left the labor force. tom: this is a revision plus jobs well over 500,000. jonathan: the treasury market picks up on it. we took off the high of last thursday's session. 160.63 on the screen. tom: look at the dollar. jonathan: the dollar index, 92 handle. a clean break of 119. a story of the last few weeks of the equity market. yields up, real yields higher. the nasdaq up by .3%. no drama at this point. yields are up by four or five basis points. a better payrolls report, even before we really start reopening the economy, even before we factor in texas, which is reopened for business.

tom: we really could care less about the data, we just do this so michael mckee can look at the data before we get to it. there is so much economic data that comes out of this report. i take the revision, i add it to payrolls, i get a 500,000-plus statistic. is it confirmed and the other data? mike: it is not quite 500,000. you are in the 400,000 range, which is good. we have seen other data suggest the economy is getting stronger. one rate has not changed -- 11.1 from 11.1, there are a lot of discouraged workers who have not found job. the number of people in the labor force went up by 150,000. average hourly earnings up only .2%, which leaves the year over year rate at 5.3%, lower than in

january. if the equity market is trying to make a connection between a good jobs report and inflation driven by wages, it is not there. lisa: are we getting a sense there is momentum? government jobs did go away. 465,000 four that private payrolls figure. does that indicate momentum for some of the 6%, 7%, 8%, 9% gdp prints people are predicting? mike: we can, if this is maintained, rapidly get back to a more normal situation once things start to reopen. it will be interesting to see over the next month, you had states like texas and florida say the heck with what doctors are saying, we will reopen, did that drive more hiring? will restaurants suddenly be opening? we are getting into the leisure season.

will we see amusement parks and hotels start to staff up again in the hopes we will see people travel. here is another big number that folds into that, 513,000 service providing jobs were created during the months. much of that in business services and temporary help. but it is an indication that companies are starting to look toward hiring more people at this point. leisure and hospitality up 355,000. i don't have that break down directly in front of me yet but i would imagine a good proportion of that is restaurants and bars as they start to reopen. jonathan: looking at the curve, yield at the front end unchanged, 15 basis points. we take out the highs of last thursday. chairman powell looks at these numbers this morning, i do not want to assume what he is thinking but going off what he said, this is what he is

anticipating -- better jobs numbers but nothing for them to step on yet. mike: it does not factor inflation driven by a tight labor market and that is what the fed is looking for, waiting to see if we get back to where we were in 2019 and that pushes up wages because employers can find people to take their jobs, that would be a problem. they want to percent, 2.5% inflation for a while. as tom said, you put the revisions in, you will be in the 450,000 range. if you have 10 million to 12 million people out of work, that puts you well into 2022 before you absorb the new entrants. tom: jp morgan looking for 600,000-plus -- 6 million, i should say. we will digest all of this data throughout the day. jon, i know you want to go to

jeffrey rosenberg, an important conversation is -- representative knows the president better than any economist out there. jared bernstein has a better unemployment rate. jonathan: i think the pressure builds to pass this $1.9 trillion plan. the better things get the harder it is to push through a package that large. i don't see a challenge to the fed just yet. when you start to see to your treasuries in the front end selloff in a few months time, that is a challenge to the fed. tom: look at the ambiguity of the markets is -- as people try to figure out, good or bad? lisa: even though the headline number is big, the actual wage increases are in line with expectations. that is why they can hold tight. it raises the question -- why are yields going so high?

is this consensus? jonathan: high real yields? maybe. yields are higher, expressing at this early? maybe not. lisa: these are the debates. how much of a surprise is this? jonathan: jeffrey rosenberg joining us from blackrock. jeffrey: this is a bit of a down payment on a reopening report. mike mckee hit it, 355,000 on leisure and hospitality, a reversal from close to the 500,000 we lost in january. it is driving the report and really driving the narrative around the reopening. restart economics means it is important to remember, we are not talking about recession, we are talking about suppression. that is the covid suppression that is about to be lifted from

the economy. it is not about the front end of the yield curve. the fed has the credibility around keeping interest rates at zero. it is the back end of the yield curve we have been focused on. yesterday was a telling moment when they asked explicitly, are you seeing anything in the curve that would require changes? he did not take the bait. the back end of the curve has a lot of room to not only normalize the covid declines, but to start a price in -- i think this is where we will go around the debate -- what is the implication of significant monetary policy? we are going to have two big fiscal stimulus bills combining and starting to change the narrative around term premium, inflation risk premium and real interest rates. all of that will be manifested in the back end of the curve. jonathan: this is so important.

we have not seen the selloff, and if we did that would be a challenge to the credibility. it would be the markets income we don't believe you. let's talk about the long end. what other kind of levels you expect that number to go to before the fed starts to get uncomfortable? so long as the front end is pinned. we know what this looks like in a few months -- it gets better. we know the basis points kick in . where is the 10 year? where is the 30 year? jeffrey: we have not seen it yet. the people who are uncomfortable our bond market participants like myself. the fed is not uncomfortable. if you take a step back and look at financial conditions, are they tightening? a tiny bit. if you look at a 10 year chart,

financial conditions are still exceptionally loose and easy. when powell's -- i am not looking at one rate, it is lots of different things. that is code for at this level -- it might not feel gradual, five basis points steepening a day, but it is not the taper tantrum. it is a fed that is clearly saying, we will tell you we will taper our purchases and we will tell you sometime long before we reach further progress, but do not confuse that tapering equates to tightening. if you break that, the hanging out, the solidity of the front end of the curve, it is emphasizing that point. the fed can be comfortable seeing these back end interest rates turn premiums and real interest rates start to normalize without needing to intervene. tom: jeffrey rosenberg calling

it a taperless tantrum. how do you measure a bond-bear market? is there something that is identifying a bond-bear market? jeffrey: a secular increase in interest rates will feel like a bond-bear market. i think we have to be careful about the bond-bear market and look at what we are doing as we are unwinding the covid crisis. covid crisis was deflationary and it was exceptionally reflected in very low levels of real interest rates print the combination was exceptionally low nominal interest rates across the curve. we are unwinding that. does that feel like a bear market? you are having persistent negative returns from the resetting of interest rates print whether or not it is a secular bear market is if it is a permanent change to inflation

trajectory, we are far away from that. let's not confuse a one time adjustment in the inflation trajectory. even if you look at interest rate increases more recently, they have been about guilt yield increases. -- gilt yield increases. can we get sustained increases? the debate is beginning. it will center around the combination of fiscal and monetary. is it finally big enough and targeted enough to address the secular stagnation at the heart of this persistent decline in real interest rates. that may bring about that bond-bear market. lisa: when do you actually see value in government bonds again? jeffrey: i think we are starting to bring some value back, particularly if you look at the moves in the five-year part of the curve. the five-year is the fulcrum of said expectations.

we started to see a couple of days of significant increases that are pricing in, pulling forward some of the fed rate, a hike in anticipation. we have room to go in regards to that with the five-year part of the curve. the back end of the curve has done a lot. the 30 year is starting to lag the increase and spread it is starting to move into the belly of the curve. you are starting to see some value brought back into the back end of the curve. there is still some room to go in the front end of the curve. -- the interest rate levels across the real inflation. inflation has gone a long way. the value trade has occurred. the vulnerability is a little more toward higher ability. lisa: we are looking at 10 year

yields. 1.6080, testing the highs we saw last week and surpassing them. what you are seeing in the nasdaq is fascinating. it is a direct inverse correlation that when yields go higher, the nasdaq goes lower, led by the highflying stocks. if you see the 10 year yield going higher from here, are you expecting the nasdaq to continue to roll over to see us another leg down in this correction? jeffrey: there have been a couple of very popular, successful and crowded strategies across fixed income and in the equity market. in the fixed income world, the belly of the curve, trade seven exceptionally supported bite monetary policy installing real rates print in the equity market, the momentum trade, secular growth, the tech trade have been part of that. i think the rotations you are

seeing in the fixed income market are being echoed in the rotations of the equity market as of the underlying support for that in terms of persistently low real interest rates, is really coming under challenge. the themes across the fixed income markets are reflected in this momentum and secular growers trade in the equity markets. it will persist and it will have challenges, as we are adjusting to this higher real interest rate environment. tom: jeffrey rosenberg, thank you so much. we do see markets on the move. i want to underscore the equity list we have seen, equities making almost all the way back of what we saw after what i will call the powell collapse yesterday. dow futures are what i am following the most, up 265 points after the 300 point declined yesterday. the vix comes in almost two sticks, nowhere back to the calm

of 22 or 23. right now, for global wall street and what we really take pride in at luber, his careful analysis of things that are difficult. -- pride in at bloomberg, is careful analysis of what things are difficult. a possible exception of lewis grendel at icap, jersey owns behind ground. you have it optimism that the tea leaves of the repo market will heal by march. how will they do that? >> what tends to happen is when people are short, people are selling bonds and they are getting short treasuries, you run out of things to borrow. in order to perform those trades. repo rates go way down and you wind up having to pay people

more and more to borrow those bonds. this often happens and had happened for the better part of a decade, when yields were going up in the mid to thousands. what will happen is we will issue a new bond next week. there will be a new 10 year note that settles on march 15. on march 15, we would expect a lot of the collateral to go away. tom: you're a comm guy, the people that are lathered up about this negative fair price on the 10 year yield, this is arcane stuff, those people lathered up, what are they missing? ira: i think they are missing the historical context. the reason these repo rates are trading so negative is there is

a rule in place that the treasury marketing practices group, which is a group of investors in the street that works with the fed on market function, they basically instill a charge that if you fail to deliver a bond in a purchase agreement trade -- and is not unusual for someone to fail. there was $31 billion in failure. you have to pay 300 basis points for the right not to deliver that bond. if you basically have one person not delivering a bond, it is very possible the repo rate could, on that specific bond, could go negative. what we have to remember is, when you look at the broad swath of the market, we are really only talking about one or two different bonds. the other 100-plus bonds are still trading normally in the repo market. this is a specific technical issue that will go away.

lisa: before we let you go, you have to weigh in on what we are seeing. the idea -- revisiting her expectation for your and treasury yield, seeing them now at 2% because jay powell did not talk them down. do you agree? ira: i agree on the direction. sometime, our year end outlook is for 182, that is a moving target when you see employment numbers like you got this morning. you have to reevaluate every time you get a new data point about how strong the recovery will be. tom: thank you. we have the copyright for bloomberg intelligence print lisa abramowicz and tom keene, we go down to washington. washington removed from what the 10 year's doing.

henrietta treyz knows everyone is looking at a better unemployment rate. this jobs report, the enthusiasm to get going on a $1.9 trillion stimulus. henrietta: thank you for having me. i think this jobs number is extraordinarily helpful to the narrative that spending in the covid bill is sufficient and we don't need to do more, maybe to the republicans' point, you don't need the fall $1.88 trillion. d.c. does not operate on a month-to-month basis. you need consecutive month over month growth, especially with the ups and downs in the employment data for the last year, to have something that actually sinks in and d.c. i would not expected to derail progress on this covid bill. it will probably be signed into law by this time next week.

the next step will be full steam ahead on infrastructure package. something i constantly think about, coronavirus and addressing covid is not a democratic policy platform. it is something that happened and the biden demonstration has to deal with it. going forward, the actual party platform, it has been infrastructure investment. lisa: before you get into the details, i want you to pair markets with policy. policy makers are gung ho on additional round of -- stimulus. henrietta: so much of a macro long-term data set, they focus on whatever they want to see first briton 0% interest rates. the chairman encouraging spending and borrowing. the secretary calling this a

fragile recovery, are there going to be an additional variants? they may not have a full handle. it is more of those data sets in my experience in d.c. tom: thank you so much. we have to move on. i think this is so important. we see research notes, 2%, and then you see moments ago talking about a seven-figure statistic on jobs. i have never seen that in my life. i got you moonlight, you are my starlight, i need you all night, dance with me. are we going to dance to payrolls? lisa: i know jon is crying that

he is not here to hear this. the excitement is we took the elevator down during the covid pandemic, will we be able to take it back up. tom: well said. lisa: the idea that nasdaq features turn quickly around. higher on the day, this idea that good news is good news for risk assets, even with more growth ahead. this is a new dynamic and an even more optimistic dynamic for the months ahead. tom: now i am going to channel abramowicz. the statistics are there for president biden, jared bernstein and mr. ferro, 11.1% u6 rate. lisa: people are not going back to look into for work. there are green chutes,

there are a lot of people out there who do not have jobs who have been off the payroll for a long time. the number of jobs added to food services and drinking places up 285,900. basically, you are seeing a resurgence in services. these jobs are key to the recovery. that is why you are seeing leisure and hospitality stocks on a tear this morning. tom: almost $69 a barrel. we are on a $70 watch with oil. lisa: is that your prediction? tom: i am saying we have a trend that is tangible. lisa: this is all positive. can the data continue to perform like this? we are seeing states reopened prematurely. tom: we do it right on policy in washington. jared bernstein during the 9:00

hour from the white house lawn. ♪

jonathan: a big upside surprise. from new york city, good morning. the count down to the opening bell starts right now. futures up 27 on the s&p. higher treasury yields. we begin with a bigger issue. >> it's a lot of ground we have to cover. as it relates to the bond market, it is not appropriate to isolate one particular interest rate or price. it will take some time to get there. it is pretty specific. again, it is a broad range of financial conditions, labor market conditions. these are highly desirable outcomes. it is very far along the road to recovery and there is a lot of ground to cover. we are still 10 million jobs short. jonathan: it's welcome the bloomberg team. good morning, mike. mike: i finally get to give some good news.