>> it will be hard for yields to sit there and the market to believe the fed is going to ask inner. >> if the fed starts talking about tapering, it will be a risk. >> the market is looking for any positive data to continue to justify this march higher. . >> half of the markets want to have better job data and the other half is scared of that because of the potential inflationary consequences. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance". jonathan: big tech struggles, from new york city, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." equity futures are down 23 on the snp. tom: they are down in his 1.5 on the nasdaq and it was down earlier but i look all in all where we are and it's a correlated adjustment on a

monday with an interesting, weak. jonathan: good news is bad news for tech stocks. it looks like the $1.9 trillion plane is going through the senate. tom: there will be earnings, there will be revenue growth for the big tech stocks and maybe that pushes against this downdraft but i would look at the correlated effort off of the jobs report. you've got to look to oil and with that, the yield move. jonathan: the outlook gets better and better. 5.5 percent for 2021 is the consensus view of economists on the street. lisa: the inflation expectation increasing growth is chanda tory or could it be the beginning of something more lasting and that will be the key debate.

is this inflation driven or a normalization that has a natural cap or is this a head fake before the natural low growth world returns? jonathan: it's the price action this monday morning, good morning to all worldwide. futures are down 21 and down than half a percent with yields in the bond market higher. where are we right now? 1.6% yields are up. the effects market shows the dollar is showing strength. lisa: the dollar strength comes at a not great time for a number of assets. it could be a commodities bet or the reflation narrative. curious as to what janet yellen has to say. she is speaking at the imf event today and we will see how much

she pushes back against the inflation push that is great -- that is gaining holding markets. later today, present biden will sign an executive order creating a new gender equality counsel. this is a fascinating event on international women's day because of the pandemic and how much it affected women proportionately, due to childcare issues on the fact that a lot of women at home found it difficult to feed their kids and distract their kids from online learning from actually giving them something to do. the house will vote today on laying out the guidelines at -- and passing the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill. it should pass tomorrow. the key will be looking for some sort of consensus for the democratic party. jonathan: we could see some powerful data points in the coming weeks and months. you have texas reopening and you have the 1.9 trillion dollar

plan and the data could be big. tom: let's do the economics. the stimulus is totally different and its impact on american society limit -- than the many efforts we have seen since 2008. this is a stimulus that will move money to lesser, wealthy people and they will spend the money. the other idea is joe manshin of west virginia, we learned his power. jonathan: small margins, big consequences, georgia two seats, something that would have been smaller. let's get to the markets. nasdaq futures are 188.

we see capital markets. you have noted that correlation between tesla and the s&p 500 is important. >> use to not be as important but now that tesla is a pretty large weight in the s&p 500 along with the rest of it, they are 50% of the cues and 25% of the s&p 500. they continue to weigh on the in feeds and the other thing we don't have is all the called buying that you had back in august of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. that has dropped like a stone in tesla and a lot of the mega cap tent -- tech names. the only positive i can give you is there will be more stimulus checks on the way. we will see if that changes anything as we go forward. tom: i want to talk about the

derivative space. you go right to the twist in the derivative space. we do talk askew on monday. tell us about the skew and what it means for those who want to buy the dip. >> what it is telling you right now is that call options in particular in mega cap tech and the names that have not done well are really at their most attractive ever. obviously, gamestop was in the headlines and they would have you thinking that people are continuing to call by but if you look at the call volume, they have dropped like a stone. we have really come down since the beginning of 2021 when skew was inverted and the call waiting was beaten up from retail and institutional. if you want to express the

positive upside in your momentum, is a good time to do it. lisa: are you saying you think mean ra buy? >> i was saying if you look to the mean stocks, you would think that the cost is expensive. in calls in the mega cap tech names like tesla, those call skews have come in a lot relative to what happens to be in focus in the headlines. call skews are at one year lows that's actually the put bets that are expensive. if you believe there is any turn back to mega cap tech driven by stimulus, driven by retail for returning, that's fine. that call waiting is inexpensive right now. jonathan: let's talk about retail.

we are talking about stimulus checks potentially going into the market through short call options which will drive trillion dollar companies. this is new, isn't it? >> i know, and every time i say it, i find it strange. the reality is if you look at the correlation -- i appreciate it's only two rounds of data points but there is a strong correlation between the last two rounds of stimulus checks and the inversion you are seeing. obviously, there is an institutional side to that. there is no doubt in the data at the small contracts, we call it under 10 lots of options, those volumes went to levels we simply have never seen before. that is related to people getting $1400 in checks.

that has happened very strongly. when you look at this, they have jargon about what they plan on doing with those checks. do they go back to beloved names like tesla which is had a downdraft or do they go to more consumer discretionary like norwegian airlines or united airlines. they are aware there is a rotation so that's a very open question. that can move the market. tom: when john says this is new, what he means is you are nuts and we will go on from there. what is the market call you have at rbc? >>lori's focus is on financials right now but from the derivative side, when you look

at the financials, the one thing that has changed from the options market is the fact that by box -- that buybacks are allowed again. what that does is it goes back to skew. if you think that buybacks exist, that essentially puts a put on the market. it's a dampening effect on the downside when you know the company's stock can be bought. it whittles the downside skew further and further. structurally, we like trade and. we are selling puts to fund the upside where there continues to be a long way to go because we think that put bill is far more comfortable when we know the buybacks are in place and that backstops the shares. jonathan: i don't think you are nuts, just to be clear. some great work. i think we should stand back and

look at what we are talking about. $1400 stimulus checks and not my view, the view of people on wall street that this money could go into several names, maybe into the options market and whip around monster mega cap tech stocks. tom: i know that thinking is out there. i totally disagree with it. what you will see is consumption and interior confidence in the bottom half of america to get those checks and i believe it goes out to september 6. with that, you will see a buildout into a better gdp and that gdp will goose those big stocks. jonathan: it doesn't matter how soon it gets out.

lisa: it also matters if it affects oracle shares. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. what a lineup of guests we got. abby joseph cohen of goldman sachs is coming up. we are negative one half of 1% and bond -- in the bond has a boost. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> democratic lawmakers predict the one point $9 trillion xiaomi is built will sell through the house. they may changes to the bill to appease moderates and apply with -- and comply with parliamentary rules but it won't let democrats -- democratic progressive vote against it. a key saudi arabia oil facility came under drone attack.

oil production is unaffected but is the most serious attacks against saudi oil institutions in almost 1.5 years. the last attacks were claimed by you able -- rebel forces in yemen and cut production by a. in china, export search which reflected strong global demand for managing vector goods. it was skewed by a low base last year when the economy was in lockdown. exports jumped almost 61%. elon musk is getting into the texas power market. he is building a gigantic factory connected to an ailing electric grid outside houston that nearly collapsed last month. this marks his first foray into the epicenter of the u.s. energy economy. prince harry and meghan markle have given their first side of the recent developments in the royal family. a wide-ranging interview with oprah winfrey and they described

the color of their son's skin, losing protection and the pressures that led to the duchess of sussex to contemplate suicide. harry said he felt trapped by royal life and was surprised he could cut it off. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and ana it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today.

♪ ♪ >> from the beginning, we said

we had to pass this legislation. we made a promise to be american people that we were going to deliver the real relief they needed and now we have fulfilled that promise. jonathan: senate majority leader chuck schumer over the weekend, a $1.9 trillion plan, is it too big? they don't think so. good morning. here is the monday morning price action, futures down 23, no break for tesla down another 3.8% in early trading. in the bond market, yields are higher by three basis points on the dollar is stronger. wti is $66 per barrel. tom: even through $71 per barrel, watching it closely and with that event, the politics of saudi arabia, this is a flip from what we saw from the trump administration. emily wilkins gets your week

started on washington politics. i know john and lisa want to dive into the stimulus but i want you discussed joseph mansion of western virginia. we know his power. how powerful is he to get to voting rights legislation and get onto the infrastructure tax bill everyone is looking for? emily: we saw senator manshin's power when the vote got held up her 12 hours as democrats and republicans tried to sway him on support for amendments. he wound up siding with the democrats on that. the big question with the senate is this filibuster. the filibuster doesn't let democrats get their legislation through because it requires 60 votes. democrats only have 50 so should we eliminate it? yesterday you heard joe manshin

soften a little bit. he said he wants to support the rights of minorities any believes that democrats will be in the minority in the future but you saw him being open to getting things done. there is potential it reforms out there with that would not eliminate the filibuster but might make it easier for democrats to get their legislative area ortiz through including the voting rights bill you just mentioned. jonathan: talk to me about the changes made in the senate to this bill and how the house will digest that? emily: the biggest one we saw is around the supplemental unappointed benefits. the house passed a bill that would have them be $400 per bill and the senate bumped that down to $300 per week and they looked to house progressives and asked if they were ok and they said we are not happy but we are still going to vote for the bill. we are not seeing any sort of major opposition in the house. only five or six lawmakers would have to decide, democratic

lawmakers would have to decide to vote against this bill but at this point, it seems democrats are pretty much united even though the legislation might not be perfect. they believe it will deliver the relief the american people need. jonathan: what is next for wall street? emily: next we see president biden sending a couple of executive orders today around gender equality. he signed a couple of executive orders about voting rights but if you are looking for the next big thing, it's infrastructure and transportation. president biden let -- met last week with a bipartisan group of lawmakers and this is what people on the hill and off the hell are turning their attention to. what does a large infrastructure package look like? how are lawmakers going to propose paying for this? will it be some sort of tax increase and where would that come from? lisa: we talk about international women's day. sometimes it feels like lip

service but there is the imminent need given the fact that 18% of the jobs held by women were lost in the united states between february and april versus 14% of jobs held by men. there are so many more women out of the workforce. what is he proposing to do about this and what are people saying about how it will affect national growth? emily: let's be honest, a lot of the executive orders are sort of in-house type things within the federal government. the federal government is a major employer that it only has a certain extent of going so far. if we really want to see big things being done for women as far as child tax credits, maternity leave and other major policies, these are things that have bipartisan support in congress. it's simply a matter of those getting enough of a priority to go through as part of larger legislation or standalone bills. the interest is there.

we just haven't seen a major push given the other items around congress. tom: i will cut to the chase -- if we haven't learned about the childcare crisis in this country and this pandemic, we are never going to get it. what is the mood now of a bipartisan childcare solution? emily: it's definitely out there. you are hearing proposals from republicans in the house and the senate who want to move on this. if there is going to be away this goes forward, it might be something that winds up being attached to a larger bill. at this point, president biden is signing executive orders and bringing attention to it for the president can only do so much. jonathan: good to catch up, thank you. social justice issues matter to wall street now. we need to think about that more

and it's a timing issue for policy. they are targeting disparity and to address that, they will have to wait longer than they would have before. tom: i think you have to walk through midtown manhattan. it's real simple, everybody has a different experience. in this pandemic at --, i would suggest you cannot get these things started without a new effort on childcare. i don't see it out there. jonathan: i couldn't agree more. lisa: it's not only for the fed but growth in general. there are kids you can't go outside or can't socialize or need to be catered do to every which way. tom: how did they do it in the united kingdom?

jonathan: the system in europe is a lot at her and the united states has more work to do on that front. black unemployment is higher and that's a huge unemployment. -- problem. this is not being about a social justice warrior. follow what the fed is doing. look at what the fed is doing, it is not targeting the aggregate numbers, they are targeting disparity and that has big consequences about financial markets day to day, week to week. lisa: this is why people are concerned about inflation running hotter because the fed is targeting these issues. the polity they are looking for might happen after the economy runs much hotter. tom: we will not get inflation off of sound childcare policy. lisa: i would agree.

jonathan: coming up, good morning to all. your equity market is down 20. we are off of half of want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile, you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network? sure thing! and with fast, nationwide 5g included - at no extra cost? we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction... ...and learn how much you can save at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings.

♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." here is the price action this monday morning. we are on session lows. the nasdaq is up but -- by 1.626%. good news is bad news for big tech. when growth is scarce, you will pay up for growth. when you throw a 1.9 trillion dollar plan on top of economy that's reopening, people are no

longer scare. apple is down and amazon is down. amazon over the last month is down almost 10 percentage points. these three names alone almost a quarter of the nasdaq 100 and that right there is your problem in this equity market. we go to the bond market with yields higher. we saw 162 on friday and we started to get used to life north of 160. the thirty-year is settling down around 230 right now, the fed to seems ok with this but bank of america says if this -- of this test conditions, that's when the fed comes back in and a different way. tom: we will see at the next fed meeting.

international women's day is about courage. you need to have courage to write when you were very young that defines china. that's what elizabeth did out of swarthmore. the new book is the book i would reread on china. i read the third revolution cover to cover and its definitive about the new china. we are thrilled elizabeth could join us today. thank you for joining us. i need to go back to your claim of the river run, how polluted still is china? >> china is still facing an environmental cost -- crisis. it is made a lot of improvements in air quality. you still cannot turn a tap on in china and get clean water. they haven't begun to tackle

extraordinary levels of soil pollution. we have seen that china's contribution to global climate change is increasing every year over the past five years despite pledges to lead in the fight against climate change. there has been some significant a purpose but there is a long way to go. tom: let's get in front of your next book. what i want to talk about is moving on from the third revolution to what you have learned about president xi and china in the past 12 months. >> what's been surprising and fascinating about g jinping is the extent to which china believes that the government model is as good if not better than the united states and other liberal democracies. coming out of the pandemic,

chinese leadership believes the wind is at their backs. they grew last year and clearly we did not stop we not only have an economic competition in a strategic competition but also a values competition. for me, looking at china now, it's one of the major challenges we will confront. lisa: one of the issues is that the national people's congress has talked about getting better tax dominance in china. how do you expect that push to change the equation? >> i think it's important when we are looking at the technological push to recognize that this push has been going on since the 1980's and has only accelerated.

looking at the made in china 2025 program, that was about china decoupling from the united states and other technological leaders globally and they say they want to control manufacturing. they want to control the manufacturing component. now we have xi jinping dual circulation theory which says we can innovate and manufacture and consume at home. the semiconductor issue has become a cutting edge issue for the chinese because of the trade war and the restrictions we have placed on semiconductors that affect some of the leading chinese companies. they have pressed aggressively with huge investments so you have scores of new companies emerging that are devoted to semiconductor design and

manufacturing. most of these are falling short of their ambitions. you see some companies with bankruptcies. that's not to say they will not make progress along the way but i think it's important to recognize that when we hear about these big pushes and big targets that china sets up there is an know norma's amount of waste. lisa: the issue that i see is it puts tech and national security hand-in-hand. we have seen this again and again weather comes to joe biden talking about or what has talked about. now we have the sophisticated attack of email software. there is a question of the retaliatory moves that could ramp up. how could we see this tech war and the national security issue escalate when it comes to tariffs or other measures that

people should look for? >> one of the things we have seen out of the biden administration is that they are taking their time in trying to understand the lay of the land with regard to that relationship you just pointed to between tech and national security. the trump administration took a sweeping approach to the point that almost anything we did could be seen to help china and help the chinese economy. that group of technologies is getting bigger and bigger and where we thought we had to draw the line became more broad. the biden administration is trying to figure out how we save these are the core technologies that we need to protect. as far as the cyberattack against microsoft, china has continued to launch cyberattacks against the united states.

there is no let up in cyberattacks. it was a big one and it was significant but it's not as though companies were not facing thousands of attacks from companies on a daily basis. we shouldn't think this is somehow new or this is in response to something the united states has done a particular. this is an ongoing challenge. jonathan: can the u.s. administration get europe to go along with them? >> the biden administration came and said we are going to do things differently in significant ways when it comes to china. one of them is to work more closely with our allies. asian allies are 99% on board. -- european allies are 99% on board. when we look at the nuts and

volts of areas of cooperation, we will see more corroboration rather than less. we see countries like germany the netherlands and france all sailing through the south china seas and supportive navigation. i think the big issue is the trade issue. europe is more than just germany and france. the u.k. has been surprisingly strong when it comes to china and hong kong and other small countries are pulling the weight i think it will be interesting as your participates. tom: how should the american banks respond to the limitation

of liberty in hong kong? what should they do in hong kong, shanghai and beijing? >> the trump administration started by sanctioning a hong kong official. my concern is that i don't want to harm the hong kong people. the chinese government is starting and suffocating democracy in the country but i don't want to see a massive pullout of our companies and their banks. i want is to open her doors to the hong kong people. i don't have a silver bullet for this one. i think we will treat hong kong the way we treat the rest of china.

that is increasingly what hong kong will be, just another chinese city. it's a tragedy actually. jonathan: it's good to catch up, thank you. tom: for me, i kid about it but i go deep into china which is the airport, the mercedes, the mandarin and i turn around and go back again so i am no authority. those words you just set are just stunning. it goes back to the conversations we have had on the united kingdom. jonathan: it's the u.s. confronting china but competing with china and not calling it confrontation. we seen example after example in the united states of american multinational companies and where they want to be. lisa: that's the real challenge.

europe naturally has an alliance there but the question is, do the businesses that want to grow? jonathan: coming up, a johns hopkins associate for spencer -- associate professor on the pandemic. more and that still to come and futures down 23, off by 6/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: only four democrats

oppose the bill. president biden will formally create a gentle bill, it's part two as he intends to mark international women's day and will ask the education department to re-examine the trump administration's policy on title ix. that's the one which governs the way discrimination is handled in schools. general electric is close to an agreement to combine its aercap holdings. the deal would join the two largest aircraft financiers. a combination would speed up the ge push to shrink the company. the microsoft emailed software has turned into a global security crisis. the attack started with the chinese government backed

hacking group. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than one of the 20 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ ♪ >> i do think we are ready. i think people want to go back,

they feel the need for it and you ask about the risk. i think the risk is in not going back to school given all the suffering, all the loss of learning we have seen. jonathan: british kids go back to cool. many are grateful that they are going back to school in the u.k., it's not just the parents. here is the price action this monday morning. as we reopen the economies, the u.k. is sending the kids back to school and the united states dates additionally netted states 2.6 million doses, 9% of this country fully vaccinated. tom: i enjoyed on friday the

stunning execution of lining up people within the sanctuary of a building to get vaccinated. it was new york presbyterian and the armory on 169th street. i was shocked how they nailed it. it is so important how we deliver these vaccines. i don't know what the number is, 60% want to be vaccinated? maybe 69%, what is the number one way to get that percentage up? >> i think we have to get more vaccines into the arms so people see it's safe and effective. that's probably the number one thing and number two is to build better access points. as people see they can access the vaccine easier, they are likely to wanted as well so we have to build the trust we have been talking about but we also have to make sure that as this

is being built, we get people access to the vaccine. lisa: will we see companies disturbing the vaccine given that that has been proposed as one of the most effective ways to an oculus? >> i think as we move out of this emergency phase and into the broader phase of vaccinating the entire population, we will explore so many new options for how we distribute vaccines. if we see something is not working, we can move on. if one vaccine site is not getting through, then we look at other strategies like going to companies. we can also look to going to give vaccines through health care providers and community health care spots. all different access points should be explored. jonathan: when do you think the free-for-all begins? >> i think in the next few

months, we will start to see a situation where as vaccine supply increases, we get to the point where people can really start to access it. i think the concern now for many people is that we will get to a point where the people who were having a hard time accessing it continues to have that her time and eventually give up. as we build that trust in the community, we must also expand the access points. jonathan: two point 16 million is an impressive number. -- 2.6 million is an impressive number. how should we distribute individual vaccines? how do you think about the challenge of whether to take on astrazeneca or others? >> i think the more vaccines we can get into utilization the better. globally, we want to see a broad

spread of the different vaccine types to make that challenging. at the same time, we don't want to be in a situation where only just are getting one in one location and a different in another, we want the coverage, there is different benefits to the different types of vaccines and different populations may desire different vaccine so anyway we can expand the coverage is better. tom: i look at all the years we had the terrible things and it's celebrity driven in america. i have been thunderstruck that pfizer does not go out and get 20 different celebrities and line up 20 celebrities to say it's not going to kill you. have you been surprised we haven't done that? >> i think this was talked about early. i think we will start to see that as the vaccine becomes more readily available.

we are targeting the most vulnerable populations in the highest risk groups. it's been in porton that the vaccine goes into the arm of anyone who needs it. i am totally comfortable with the present strategy. i understand that that's exactly what we will see. we need community members, celebrities, local people who are willing to show these vaccines are safe and effective and live their lives and the spotlight so people can see that but there is no fast weight to get people those vaccines. for right now, it's being handled right.

lisa: tom keene is quietly submitting his celebrity name. can you live life again after the vaccine? what do you expect the guidelines to be? >> i expect them to be focused around the next safe step. can you see your grandparents? can you expand your bubble to others who have been vaccinated. can you safely eat in a restaurant? just increasing your zone of comfort. i hear that they are imminent but we need this desperately because when people have guidance, they tend to follow that guidance when there is no guidance, everyone is making those decisions individually and we don't want to see that. we went to see a clear path to reopening, like a roadmap that people can follow. when you have a roadmap, you can

follow it but it's way easier to get lost without one. the cases are plateauing and we don't want lost people wandering around. jonathan: thank you for your insight. we are not yet at the free-for-all. it will be a couple of months before we start that wider disparate -- distribution effort. tom: i thought she was eloquent on how far we have come how fast. my impatience is right, we have to wait a couple of more weeks to let this unfold. jonathan: maybe a couple of more months. lisa: i think everyone is really impatient. just hold on for a couple of weeks. jonathan: texas reopening and who's next?

from new york city, good morning. up next, a conversation you don't want to miss on the equity market, abby joseph cohen from goldman sachs. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

♪ >> rates are going to keep rising until we get that disorderly market functioning. >> it is going to be very hard for yields to sit there and for markets to believe the fed isn't going to move sooner. >> if the fed starts talking about to bring their asset program, i think that will be negative for with assets -- negative for risk assets. >> half of the markets once to have better jobs data, and the other half is scared because of the potential inflationary consequences. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market taking a dive on the nasdaq, off by 180, down by 1.5%. the outlook gets better.