♪ >> rates are going to keep rising until we get that disorderly market functioning. >> if the fed starts talking about pages and -- about tapering, i think that will be negative for markets. >> the market is looking for any positive data to continue to justify this march higher. >> there is a very strong correlation between the last two rounds of stimulus checks and the inversion you are seeing. >> half of the markets want to have better jobs data, and the other half of the market is scared of that because of the potential inflationary consequent is -- potential inflationary consequences.

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast this monday on radio, on television nationwide, indeed around the world. it is international women's day. we have a sterling set of guests throughout this hour and across all of bloomberg today. a wonderful effort by our booking team. we have to talk foreign-exchange as the centerpoint. michelle meyer, kathy jones, amrita sen, you've got to look at the dollar advancing. jonathan: a 92 handle on the dollar index. the outlook is better. higher real yields finally starting to bite into that issue in the u.s. dollar. tom: and i would suggest a 1.60 percent on this monday is better than the 1.60% 10 year yield we saw a moment ago. jonathan: we said straight after it, are you ready for bigger numbers?

texas is reopening. others will follow. and we have just thrown $1.9 trillion at this. we are also sending people $1400 checks. you saw the retail sales print for january. what do you think that looks like in the next few months? tom: abby joseph cohen earlier re-emphasizing the optimism on gdp growth. i look at the set of realities out there, and it is amazing how one point $9 trillion can support an economy. -- how $1.9 trillion can support an economy. lisa: it can support the u.s. economy. kennett support the global economy? you have to wonder, how does this pull money from some of the riskier areas in markets, in the world, and put them back in the united states because that is where people want to be, and because yields are rising? this creates a fundamental

question for the federal reserve. they want to be the united states, but they really are the central bank to the world in many capacities. jonathan: the headline out of india right now, the third bond issue pulled because of what is happening with yields. you see the worries in europe and the undue tightening, and the words of several ecb officials. it sets up a fascinating meeting in a couple of weeks. when chairman powell sat there in the semiannual testimony to congress and talked about the warranted move, the statement of confidence he saw treasury yields shifting higher, i thought about that. this was a central banker for america, and no surprise he was sitting across from congress, but there's just this feedback loop, this tightening of financial conditions globally that becomes a concern at some point. we are not there yet. but that is the worry. you look internationally, they don't like this. tom: lisa, what do we see in the other bond market? we are all full faith and

credit, but what are corporate and high-yield stewing -- and bond yields doing? lisa:lisa: you saw some of the biggest outflows since the disruptions last march, but still, yields are pretty low. today, there's an american airlines offering of debt because they are trying to get in before people are closing because they d.c. yield going higher from here that's because they see yield going higher from here -- because they see yields going higher from here. tom: dow futures, -47. in dow points, 31,000. the vix up almost three big figures. we mentioned stronger dollar. oil, yes. off the news of saudi and the issues and yemen, $69.12 on brent. jonathan: your 10 year yield, 1.60%. the high of the session friday, just north of 1.60%.

you have to get used to these quick because the bond market kicks hire quickly. tom: it is not just about yield. there's a point where you switch from yield to a price analysis. kathy jones at schwab center for financial research does this very well. she watches the flows of what people are doing with their money. i calculate from the end of august, i have a 10 year yield down a good amount in price, 8.3% down in price. are we heading for a bond bear market? kathy: i think we could be over the long run. i certainly think the lowest we put in, the very low yields around 0.5% on the 10 year, 0.3% on the 10 year is probably the low for a long time. but there market is price over time or yields over time.

so we are looking to to five years down the road. i think yields continue to go higher as long as the economy does recover from the covid-19 crisis as it continues to do. but the magnitude of the move from here is not likely to be nearly as fast in the next leg as it has been from the previous low. jonathan: we've discussed about how self-limiting a move higher would be because of the them out of debt we have added to this economy. i remember it talking about maybe 1.25%, maybe 1.50%. we are at 1.60%. where is it in your mind? lisa: 1.60 -- kathy: one point 60% was our target from the beginning of the year, and we do see it pushing out into risk assets, but certainly, yields are not so high that we are going to see a huge economic deterioration from here unless we start to see credit spreads slow down or something like

that. you push out towards positive real rates in the 2% plus area, and then we are probably going to see a negative feedback loop work its way through. you have a lot of companies, the smaller, unrated companies, the zombie companies that have been rolling over debt for a long time. their ability to continue to do that, for rates to push up another 40, 50 basis points is going to be a challenge. lisa: another 40, 50 basis points? that's all it would take for some of the companies to face true print -- true financial pressures? kathy: we just did an analysis of some of the zombie companies. it is hard to get a lot of the data, but they have been living off of fumes. if you look at the private debt area, the really low rated bonds, there's going to be a challenge unless the conditions change in terms of revenue flow

from here. lisa: people have come on this show and others and have said that the real risk is for rates increasing, for duration, not credit. are you saying that that story is changing, that credit is starting to matter that much more because as you get that rise in interest rates, some of these credits are that much more sensitive to any tightening, let alone 40, 50 basis points? kathy: i think you have to differentiate between where we have seen a selloff in a great market basically because of the duration, not credit risk. even in the higher rated of high yields, we are not worried as much because this is a potent combination of very accommodative monetary policy, very expensive fiscal policy. that is good for credit. but when you get into the lower rated credits where we have seen

this big buildup of debt and the lack of earnings that we see, the less we kick in on those earnings, we are going to see some duration there. jonathan: we have to talk about the maturity wall, funding requirements. it is an extension of a maturity . is there a maturity wall on the horizon? do you see it? kathy: i don't have an answer to the maturity wall that we are particularly worried about it at this stage of the game. there is a lot of that buildup, and we are certainly going to face some financing problems down the road, but i think it continues to get pushed down, so that is not something we are worried about for this year or early next year. jonathan: always good to see you. kathy jones of the schwab center for financial research. that's got to be the story. yields might be higher, but growth is going to be better. the average maturity has been

extended by so much over the last 12 months. lisa: although there is a question about whether improved growth means the fed can step away and not backstop everybody, so all of a sudden you start to see more bankruptcies. people say that as a sign of a healthier market where not everybody is kept afloat, so some of these companies could run into more trouble, particularly higher funding costs that go up prematurely. jonathan: that is implicit now, isn't it? if they step away, isn't just hanging it over this market forever? we know what they did last time, and we know what they can do again. tom: they have a power, and they are going to adapt and adjust the fiscal. what they are going to do is delay. the fed is expert at delaying, and they've got a scheduled set of meetings where they can wait to do that. lisa: there's a difference between backstopping an entire industry during a period of distress and backing names

because of individual problems. i think that is what people are concerned about as we head into a more normal time. tom: i think what chairman powell is concerned about is getting weekly claims from 800,000 down to 500,000. jonathan: and the rest. i think they are going to be waiting a long time before they do absolutely anything. there's a conversation about them may be blinking at some point when this data starts to improve. we know the trajectory for economic data. we know what that is going to look like. what is going to be interesting is how this market responds to this end happily perceptions of policy changes as well. tom: i look at the single sentence of the research morning of some christopher varona's trends in the markets. he says, "momentum is fatigue." i think that captures it perfectly. jonathan: chris was on last week. got to get him back soon. coming up, henrietta treyz, veda

partners director of economic policy. ndc come up one point see which 1.9 -- in d.c., $1.9 trillion, a massive package. this is bloomberg. ritika: apollo has agreed to buy athene holding. the all stock deal values athene at about $11 billion. apollo was already the biggest shareholder. it is expected to more than double apollo's reported earnings from last year. bloomberg has learned that gamestop is tapping the founder of chewy.com to guide the company the gamestop

transformation. democratic lawmakers predict that president biden's one point $9 trillion stimulus bill will sail through the house tomorrow. the senate may changes -- the senate made changes to the bill to appease moderates, but those are unlikely to prove enough to make progress of democrats vote against the measure. goldman sachs predicts the u.s. is on track for unemployment boom this year. she's economist -- the chief economist says end up savings should fuel very strong demand growth. they see it falling to 4.1% by the end of the year. elon musk is building a gigantic battery can head to did -- battery connected to an ailing grid that marks the first major foray into the u.s. energy economy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700

journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: we took office 45 days ago. i promised the american people help was on the way.

today i can say we have taken one more giant step forward in delivering on that promise. help is on the way. jonathan: a $1.9 trillion package out of this administration, one step closer. we recover on the s&p, down just 0.4%. the nasdaq still a struggle, with a 10 year at 1.60%. yields up three basis points. i want to sit on that goldman forecast for a second, on unemployment. they are looking for 4.1% by the end of the year. we bottomed out in the last cycle at 3.5%, and what is unique about this particular crisis is just the speed of the downturn in the speed of the expect it recovery. to see four point 1% by the end of the year, that is the goldman call.

the fed forecast on the bloomberg terminal, this is what they look like on gdp and on unemployment. gdp for 2021, 4.2%. unemployment, 5%. on growth, the fed is at 4.2%. right now, economists are looking for 5.5%. we talked about 6% the wonderful ellen zentner of morgan stanley. so what is due on march 17? real forecast revisions expected from the fed and the next couple of meetings. tom: but what's important to me is the dovetail of david kostin with jan had see us -- with jan had cs -- with jan hatzius, as she mentioned. jonathan: the fed is going to sit it out. that is the change. tom: they will get back to reasonable employment, and then we move on. right now, henrietta treyz joins us, with veda partners.

i want to go right onto infrastructure, and what you learned in the stimulus process. do the committees matter, as we go out to another $2 trillion of infrastructure over the next 10 years? does the committee process matter? henrietta: that is such a fascinating question. i was speaking with some of the chief counsel on the ways in mitty -- the ways and means committee, and the committee was positively inspired because it allowed the democrats to get almost all of their major policy changes enacted via reconciliation, so they saw that blueprint, they found that path, and effectively they are going to move in that same direction. for investors, we have real hearings so you can see exactly what is going to be in the infrastructure package through that live process. are we going to see the green act and all of those tax credits being included? i think it is a huge proponent

here. well put. tom: i don't know what parliament is like in london, but this is a huge deal to see? back to some form of committee process. jonathan: the whole process has been eu to deal, but the market has been trading on this since the georgia runoffs. we are already moving onto the next thing before this has been signed off on. how difficult will this be to get done? henrietta: i've been talking to some of the staff in the senate on the macro side come on the banking side to understand where are the inflation fears coming from. just as you point out, it is not this covid bill that is just about to pass on tuesday. it is that they are already moved on to the infrastructure package. the estimate on the streets is anywhere between $2 trillion and $4 trillion spending. i think we need to do another refresher course on how a bill becomes a law and understand that this one in particular will vacillate more than the covert relief package did. biden put that plan in at $1.9

trillion. this package on infrastructure is going to go from $4 trillion to $6 trillion, then all the way down to $2 trillion over the next three to six months. so the process is going to be integral in a way it was not over the last two months. jonathan: can we do that refresher course now? there's a part in a movie where a guy is like, talk to me like a stupid labrador. tom: you called me that last week. [laughter] jonathan: help me understand what that process looks like. i think we all have to get familiar with it quickly. henrietta: a brief rundown, we are going to get a state of the union version of a speech from president biden in the next one to one and a half weeks. he's going to lay out the structure of the infrastructure bill in verbiage there. in april, we will get the fiscal year 2022 budget that will give us clear parameters of how much money the president wants to spend, what deficit appetite we

can expect from the administration. the democratic conference has made it clear they will be following the lead of the administration, so the first thing we will get is the speech. mid april we get the budget. shortly thereafter, the house and senate will need to pass their own reconciled budgets that will be exact replicas of one another. that will also tell us, what is the component of this infrastructure bill? will china be involved? will energy credits for taxes be involved? and then -- [indiscernible] -- when will this need to be presented to the senate for about? from there, we will move ahead with the committee process. we will see the energy and infrastructure committee's in with their components. their goal is by memorial day, to have those 100 page documents and bills finalized. then we will be working with the july deadline first. as you know, they go on recess

throughout august and into september 20. they want to write now get this bill done before july 30, so the process is budget in april, bill in may, bill passes on the house and senate floor by july. jonathan: you make it sound easy. we both know it is not. [laughter] the race to july, and another multitrillion dollar plan out of the sea -- to july, and another multitrillion dollar plan out of d.c. lisa: it is not just the rate come up at the quality we see in it. how much is that a driving force but kind the infrastructure spending -- force behind the infrastructure spending plan? is it something having to do with income inequality? this is a huge debate to be had in washington. jonathan: it is going to be a battle of how it is calibrated and where the cash grows.

-- where the cash goes. tom: i'm going to go back to the fundamentals. i thought you were in that movie for a while. he plays peter sullivan and gets a little stick, and they figure out mortgage volatility. jonathan: what was the chairman of the bank, what's his name irons? jeremy irons. lisa: you knew this would be the subject of another two minutes. jonathan: i'm so happy with one thing this morning. [laughter] two hours and 25 minutes into this program, tom hasn't mentioned the one thing that happened last night that i honestly thought he would open the show with. so i'm happy you haven't done that. i'm right i -- i'm right up against the commercial break, so now you can't. tom: i talked to meghan, and she was really low-key. jonathan: megan the floor manager? tom: no, the other one. [laughter] jonathan: i haven't seen it.

i am not going to watch it, either. coming up, michelle meyer, bank of america. good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. the opening bell one hour away. futures in .1% on the s&p. well off the lows on the nasdaq. the relative underperformance last week told the story. off .8% on the nasdaq, down almost 1% -- the big tech story getting smacked around. 2, 10, 30, better data, higher yields. 1.62 on friday. look out wednesday. 10 year supply. thursday, 30 year supply. after that ugly seven year option from two weeks ago.

financial conditions. this is the story for me and other people. yields are backing up. chairman powell calls it a statement of confidence. would he feel confident if this starts to turn around? one of the most important charts of the moment. financial conditions. tighter, tighter. that is the pandemic. then the fed steps back in. loose, loose. bank of america talking about the prospect of the high-yield story bleeding into credit. bleeding into credit and the loose financial conditions get tighter. that could be a trigger point for the federal reserve. tom: let's stay on that chart if we could. this is one of the great triumphs of bloomberg research. this is michael rosenberg and his team. they use that chart and they brought it out and two weeks later, the international monetary fund put that chart in the green book, the financial

stability book. i see a lot of stability. jonathan: stability, and the key is the fed is not here to bailout growth equities. if financial conditions start to tighten because of credit, that is a different story than what we have seen over the last month or so. tom: stronger dollar this morning. read in green on the screen. we have had the great privilege of talking to those in the ethan harris shop at bank of america securities. michelle meyer, absolutely brilliant over the years on the pulse of the american economy. she joins us with her leadership and her symbolism of international women's day in getting it done. we have followed your career. it is always narrow questions about this and that. i want to give you a broader question. what is the quality of u.s. 7.3%

economic growth. what is the makeup of that big number you have q4 to q4? michelle: thanks for the question of having me on on an important day. when you think about the drivers of u.s. economic growth, particularly this year with a stunning, we are forecasting 7.3% growth, we think a lot of it has to do with the consumer. it has to do with the resolve of the consumer to spend and the ability of the consumer to spend. this is a household sector staying on strong balance sheets , sitting on a lot of dry powder in terms of the amount of cash it has accumulated, which as a result of the latest stimulus bill, and the consumer has already engaged and proven to be resilient and we think there is a lot more to come in the coming months as the economy moves

forward in reopening. lisa: you think concerns have been overstated that people have been hoarding cash to pay down debt going forward? michelle: i think that has been overblown on an aggregate basis. i am sure it is happening on a microlevel and you see that in narratives and anecdotes. you are not seeing that on aggregate. we do not have that much debt to pay down. it is not the 2008 period where you had excess debt and needed to deleverage, households need to clean up their balance sheet. we enter this crisis, this pandemic with low debt ratios. some of the excess cash will be going to debt but the majority will be used to be pumped back into the economy. lisa: will the economy have the

same sort of composition when people start pumping their money back in? 70% services and 30% goods, given the dynamic has shifted during the pandemic? are we going back to normal or is this going to be a new normal with more goods and fewer services? michelle: i do not think we will never go back to the economy as a look prior to the pandemic. too much has changed in the world and the economy. certainly the embrace of more technology, the embrace of an online retailer that has shown itself through a variety of different sectors -- when you think about the spent when the pandemic hit, people were spending on goods because they cannot spend on leisure and other services. once they were able to spend on leisure and services, there will be demand that shows through for those category. that will not be the equilibrium.

we have to get past the pent-up demand and then we will figure out the right balance between goods and services. jonathan: what is so original about this moment -- i would love to get some insight into your conversation with clients. the bulls and bears agree on where the data will be in four months. they disagree how the fed will respond in the months after that. when you speak to clients, how many of them are convinced by the fed's reaction function when data starts to pick up aggressively, when inflation starts to pick up? michelle: i would say the majority of clients have an appreciation for the fed reaction function in that they recognize it is different than a prior cycle. this is not a fed looking to normalize, not a fed that will hike up on falling unemployment rate in on a fed that will hike when we start to sniff out inflation. they will wait until the unemployment rate -- until they reach that maximum employment measure.

they will wait until you properly have inflation. here is the distinction. what is the level of inflation? is it that they need to percent inflation, or will the fed be able to tolerate something above 2% for a period of time, and that is where you have disagreement among market participants that want to urge the fed along. tom: your really important question, it is not only about the fed, it is a disagreement of the makeup of the american economy. jonathan: the targets in the labor market have changed for this federal reserve. market participants have to change what we are looking at. it is about disparity. does that mean the fed moves much later than they would have otherwise in review cycles? michelle: that is exactly what the fed is trying to communicate and for a good reason. they are saying it is not just about getting the aggregate

measure of unemployment rate down. maximum employment is able to get people to reengage in the labor force. look at the broader measures that include labor force participation rates. it is about getting the unemployment level down across the income divide. it is broad-based and complete. the key to that is it will make it sustainable. if you have a labor market that is tight enough across the board, it could last. it could feed upon itself and have a much stronger recovery. tom: what percent of the agony, the job agony is restaurants bars, hospitality. what percent is pandemic jobs? and what percent is greater american economy jobs? michelle: there is a lot of room for expansion in those categories, hospitality. a lot of jobs in the private sector created were in leisure

and hospitality. as the economy reopens, you will get a big jump in job creation in those categories. will it get all the way back to pre-pandemic levels? that is debatable. there will be some inevitable scarring in those sectors. you will certainly have a good amount of job creation. the key is what comes next. once you get past the mechanical reopening, what does the economy look like? that will be seen in how much consumers are spending and how that naturally feeds back into broad-based business investment which then feeds back into the labor market. they need to get that positive feedback to get a better appreciation of what the economy looks like after it is all said and done. jonathan: you have a rate hike gas at this point? michelle: we are in the camp

that the first hike will be in 2023, more likely the second half than the first half. that is still up to the data. to get the fed to hike before that, to think about a hike next year, a lot would have to go very right. we are forecasting a lot to go right. we are forecasting a strong economy, but for the fed to feel comfortable to lift off, they would need to see the inflation cycle really speed up. inflation expectations move up in a meaningful way. wage growth showing signs of increasing across the board. that would convince them inflation is able to take off. that will not -- i'm not convinced that what happened by the end of next year. jonathan: michelle meyer on this better outlook and better economy and a fed that will not be stepping back in for a while. tom: all of the history is wait

and wait. i go back to timberlake of georgia in his wonderful one volume. richard timberlake made it clear that absolute singular tool any central bank has is to wait. jonathan: can i tease my show? tom: lisa, what do you think? lisa: you will do it anyway. jonathan: a fantastic lineup. oksana aronov. victoria fernandez. joe perry hall -- jill carrey hall. an emily roland, who has been reluctant to invest internationally. an interesting conversation about good news is good news, for who? looking forward to that conversation later on this morning. i will run. i believe the next segment you will be talking about the royal family. lisa: thanks a lot.

no we are not. jonathan: tom once the information for the royal family. lisa, you are now a royal correspondent. tom: i am looking at the star. jonathan: i am looking at the summary of the daily star with tom keene coming up shortly. from new york city, good morning. interesting time in the financial markets and one that will be written about for a long time. this is bloomberg. ritika: senate democrats made some changes to president biden's stimulus bill, mostly to appeal to moderates and comply with parliamentary rules. those changes are look not likely to keep the measure from sailing through the house. it will be a tight vote. nancy pelosi can afford to have only four democrats oppose the bill. president biden will formally

create a gender policy council within the white house, part of two executive orders he intends to sign to mark international women's day. he will also ask the education department to re-examine the trump administration policies and lawmaking. that is the law that governs the way sex-based discrimination in schools is handled. the u.s. and south korea have reached a long sought after agreement on defense. they will pay more for the u.s. troops stationed in the country. last year donald trump rejected a south korean proposal. our british food company has kicked off an ipo in london. the offering could raise billions of dollars and put the u.k. market on track for its best ever first quarter. no details on the size of the ipo. the company is backed by amazon and valued at more than $7 billion in its latest funding round. global news 24 hours a day, on

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>> we might be at the phase where we have seen the sharp rise in yields, but bond spreads

have not started widening. we see the trend towards a stronger dollar ever so slowly widening corporate bonds. i think that will be a concern for the fed. tom: subadra rajappa, societe generale head of u.s. strategy. we thank our team for a wonderful simulcast this morning. three hours as we look at all of the talent across economics, finance, and investment, and the women that add value each and every day. we finished strong with amrita sen of energy aspects. wonderful on the dynamics of oil. amrita sen joining us, given the news flow out of saudi arabia. this place in the persian gulf is 7% of the world's refinery. is it defendable or is it a sitting duck? amrita: i think it is defendable

, especially after the attacks in 2019. the u.s. has sent a lot more defense capability to help saudi arabia. that is why despite the attacks we have not seen any impact on oil insulation, tanks. exports are continuing. refining is continuing like it was prior to the attack. tom: how important and who is that oil important to? if that area of the persian gulf were damaged? who gets damaged? amrita: the most important thing is the region where the attack did take place is 90% of saudi exports. saudi arabia is the world's are just exporter of crude oil, and that would mainly impact asian refiners.

everybody in asia. decent amount going into europe as well. very little into the u.s. these days. you will see a huge escalation. if it were to be impacted and you were to see saudi exports reduced, you would get oil prices higher because you would lose so much. yes, saudi's have alternatives, but they are not big enough to offset 90% of the 6 million barrels a day of exports. lisa: this is the reason you saw brent crude spike up, even though no production was taken off-line. it was not necessarily anything tangible. it indicates the marginal buyers , the marginal aspects affecting oil prices. is it the concern about production coming off-line at a time when you have production cuts still in place and you have question marks around shale production, or is it still on the demand side?

amrita: it is a great question. if you asked me reality is we have a lot of spare capacity. we have 8 million barrels a day of spare capacity, including iran. we should not see a knee-jerk upward reaction in prices despite attacks because saudi arabia can bring back a lot more production. if export facilities are to be impacted, then even if production came back they cannot export it. others could. kuwait, iraq, russia. there is spare capacity in the market. what we saw at the opec-plus meeting is saudi arabia remains extremely cautious, extremely reactive. they are not in any rush to bring the production barrels back because they are saying we want to see demand pickup. yes there's is a lot of optimism around demand, but until we see that in the numbers we are not going to bring production back. that is why.

i do not think prices will go up, but the market is still tight and these headlines will remind us of the geopolitical -- the issues at large over here, which will come to the fore for sure next year. lisa: there is a consensus that the marginal swing producer of shale is not as swinging as it used to be. the idea that it cannot, online -- it cannot come online as quickly with the new oil wells drilled. you think people are underestimating the speed shale can come back online? amrita: this is the million-dollar question. saudi arabia is betting u.s. production is not a swingy as you say. our view is better for this year. 2021, if you look at all of the counts in the wells, we simply cannot see how u.s. production will rise quickly this year.

however, i will say this year, given these price levels, all of the producers will probably actually post profits, which means for next year, larger companies can still be disciplined, but the smaller companies having reached profit can probably reinvest that and grow. does it mean u.s. production will grow at one million barrels? probably not good will it be down like this year? probably not. probably somewhere in the middle. we should not underestimate that. tom: amrita sen, thank you so much for joining us on oil. we have a $71 print on brent. to john's point, we are 10 days away from the fit eating, and i guess that speaks vote -- from the fed meeting, and that speaks volumes. lisa: you have all of the

central banks meeting. they expect inflation to pick up in the short term but do not see it changing in the longer term. they want to keep things on track but there are concerned this time is different. tom: that is the point. the idea this time is different and we should mention people that have aggressively pushed back against higher rates and the certitude we will see entrenched inflation, true lifting of the level of prices. david rosenberg being the most heated. lisa: here is the question. it has to come from wages otherwise it is stagflation. where will we get the wage growth? is productivity going to increase? will we get more innovation? how will we get people paid more ? that is what the fed is trying to address. congress, too, but congress is split. tom: congress will go their own way and move on to legislation

both parties feel they need for 2022. i go back, as we heard from michelle meyer, the quarter to quarter q4 statistic is 7.4% gdp. this nation has never seen that. lisa: i have a question for you. how is the lumber stash in your apartment? you are building a house to try to cash in on the record rally for lumber? tom: the lumber is there. the commodities are there. we are doing a kennel for the dogs, we are building that in the east wing of the house. we can only do it five hours a day because of the nailing and the noise and the construction noise bothering people. you see it nationwide. the permanence of lumber, the permanence of cotton, you do not know. lisa: and i think about the dollar strengthening. how much does that put a damper on inflation? tom: we got through this without talking about macon and larry.

maybe that is because our surveillance royal correspondent left us. balance of power on the new washington. stay with us on radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: the stock market

recovering. from york city for our viewers worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. equity futures turnaround positive on the s&p 500. off the lows on the nasdaq. we begin with the big issue. good news is bad news for big tech. >> the economy is improving. >> the economy has been outperforming. >> whether it is policy driven, vaccine driven, or pent-up demand. >> momentum as we enter 2021. >> where ahead of schedule on vaccinations. >> strong job growth. >> is the outlook improves -- >> rates will keep rising. >> the rise in interest rates is not a good thing for the market. >> the downdraft we have seen in technology. >> i did not think the markets would aag