on. >> it will justify high yields. >> there's a strong correlation between the last two round of stimulus checks and the version you are seeing. >> if the fed starts tapering the asset purchase program, i think that will mean negative assets. >> they are going to wait. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: the nasdaq is bouncing back. for our work -- our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." your nasdaq this morning up more than 2%. we have been whipsawed by rotation over the last several weeks. tom: i sold everything yesterday. looks like it was a mistake. it's an equity day-to-day and correlates around the lifts. 2.1% on the nasdaq. we are just beginning to analyze

what is going on with the stimulus. i love the word steve used yesterday on joe in the morning, this stimulus is different than any we have seen at least since world war ii in 1947 and that period. jon: it's massive and see it in the bond market and oecd forecast. adding one single percentage point to grow -- global growth. tom: from abby joseph cohen, -- tom: that's the challenge -- jon: that's the challenge for the bond market and supply over the next couple days. lisa: you see the expectation for robust growth paired with this low yield invest -- low yield environment. there's a new york times column by paul krugman. he was talking about how just

because there is a boom from the stimulus doesn't mean there will be structural, longer-term change out of this secular stagnation without additional spending. this is the debate front center. jon: it's the tug-of-war between that and the longer-term story on whether we return to crack -- twined -- trend growth. and one is that around 2%? ? tom: we will go to michael jp morgan. another phrase for it is potential gdp. no one has a clue what the when of it is. cdc headline came out about double vaccines and i was sitting in a restaurant that is barely getting by, the number two value meal yesterday, but they were almost in tears over what the cdc said yesterday. that is the good news driving this. lisa: the idea they came out

with such a timid guidance here. it goes to the stick and carrot you have been talking about repeatedly, this idea of if you tell people it is all clear and they can live their life, people get vaccinated so we can end this sooner. if you don't, people will feel like what's the point? if people are privately having dinner, maybe they can remove masks and give each other a hug. jon: i expected more than this. am i allowed to say that? might be setting the line to hide. tom: i think it is in stages. i think they are being ultra-cautious, they don't want to have to make a mistake and retract it. they are dealing with the political battle of texas and even mississippi is diving in and saying -- the governor saying they are one thing to be more cautious. but they are going incremental in the best number is what you talk about every day, going from

900,000 down to two point ask million vaccines. imagine -- 2.x million vaccines. imagine where we will be in a few days. jon: let's get to the price action this tuesday morning. we are set up as follows on the s&p 500, futures up 38, call it 39. we advance more than one full percentage point. in the bond markets, in six basis points. i can't stress this enough that this is all one trade. if you are tech analyst on trust -- tesla, one trade. emfx added list -- analyst, one trade. that one trait has been the bond market. dollar strength yesterday, dollar weakness yesterday. crude is 65.71. lisa: when you talk about the dollar, i've been thinking about it a lot, this idea that everyone piled into the weak dollar story.

and the emerging markets trade story will be coming up. at 10:00 a.m., possibly beginning to vote, the house, on what will happen with the real chill -- with the retail trading -- excuse me, i jumped ahead of myself to the stimulus bill. they will be holding a hearing on robinhood is the stimulus checks goes into the hands of households. they will be discussing and possibly voting on the stimulus bill, the $1.9 trillion effort. the focus is what next do you have for me. at 1:00 p.m., i know you will be focus on this, the treasury department is getting $120 billion of debt sales this week, including a $50 billion group of three year notes i come today. interesting to see where the demand will come from, the federal reserve, foreign investors, or will it come from the likes of pimco and blackrock? we are possibly seeing signs of value after that incredible

selloff giving way to yields that have been higher than the past year. tom: what were going to do is we are to stop the show. it if you need any proof on this, liz goldenberg can explain that i don't like auction chat. she and i got into a raging battle -- i believe you guys are the experts on this and we have three coming up. why is this important? jon: a lot of people have been talking a indigestion for quite a while. a supply alone is not what drives the treasury market. i think last year was a great example of that. the plan booms, treasury yields a still wet lower because global growth was not as good this time around. that has changed. the supply methods, because the supply will achieve something big this year, and i think the oecd forecast this morning underlined that.

this fiscal plan out of washington, d.c., which will lead to more supply, will add a single percentage point of gdp growth in the global economy and that is huge to think about. do you want to be in treasuries in that environment? no. you want to be somewhere else. tom: dumb question of the morning, right now, lisa, who buys this stuff? who is there to buy the auction? lisa: we have pimco saying they are seeing value in longer-term debt. we will see about the three-year. but there are investors. this is the key question though, there are a lot of vocal investors that will be buying, and there is the federal reserve which has bought the balk of treasuries issued in recent auctions. jon: let's bring in the oecd chief economist output that forecast. can we just are right there, the degree to which the stimulus

plan is released ndc that has shaped your forecast for the year ahead. >> we are revising our forecast upwards for two reasons, first to manage a little bit of the pandemic, some have been re-vaccinating -- some have been vaccinating, reopening. global gdp growth will lift by about a full percentage point. tom: good morning. thank you so much for joining us. i'm fascinated at the diffuse meant of the u.s. prosperity over to china. do you live china up in step with america? laurence: china has gone out of the pandemic a little earlier than the u.s., and it is still

going fast. it has been -- from the demand for medical products, i.t. products, and there is one thing that has not changed, there was tension in trade related to intellectual rights from technology, [indiscernible] with the new head of the wto within this issue not being addressed. lisa: there's a question about whether this willie will benefit -- this really will benefit the rest of the world and this reflationary mood a lot of people were talking about. if you get the u.s. driving growth, a stronger dollar, typically that is not positive for the developing world. how do you feel that shaping the landscape for growth going forward? laurence: there's one thing we say in our predictions is that the recovery is very uneven across the world.

we are seeing divergence -- divergencies widening. that has to do with particular on what is happening with commodity prices, but in most cases, the driving factor, driving force of this outlook is really what is happening on the hedge funds. the divergencies were seeing across countries today, they have to do with hedge management, with vaccination pace, and how many sectors and how large the employee can't work because of the situation. we should remain focused on this . tom: let's go to the challenges of europe. i know you are very much up to speed on this. what is your timeline for prosperity for europe, given the pandemic? laurence: in europe, we have

barely revised our outlook. we think they would renew with pre-pandemic levels by about mid-2022, which is roughly one year later than the u.s.. that has to do with how vaccination and the crisis is being managed. there's a lot on fiscal support which is being done, economically, it has been fantastic but on vaccination, they need to go much faster. if we are at war with the virus, you're up needs to get on the war footing now. jon: always great to catch up with you. oecd chief economist, la urence boone. from 3.2% to 6.5%. tom: and what is so important about that is you know an

institution out of paris is being as conservative as they possibly can. jon: big change for the last several months. good morning, i'm jonathan ferro. futures of 43 and we have ansell little more than 1%. the wise and the bond market. down almost seven basis points at -- why is in the bond market. -- down almost seven basis points. >> i am ritika gupta. a highly contagious variant of the coronavirus a circulating in florida raising concerns the resurgence of the virus is possible in the state and beyond. the forecasted rate of coronavirus patients in florida hospitals is about 25% above the national average. i channels annual congress, the future of hong kong's electoral system is at stake. they're preparing to pass a resolution to overall how the cities hold elections. critics say will keep beijing's

holdover hong kong and leave no room for political opposition. that might be the final chance for investors to trade a private site before the cryptocurrency exchange goes public this month. the offering will be nasdaq first major direct listing, an alternative to the traditional ipo. the pentagon is preparing what would essentially be a slack budget for the fiscal 2022. the military had expected an increase under president trump -- former president trump. it's would amount to a decrease of 2% once inflation is factored in. the oecd says a u.s. recovery turbocharged by the new seamless package will help our faster than expected global upswing and euro could be left behind. a parents -- paris-based

organization said it expects global outlook to be above pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> last weekend, as you know, the house of representatives passed our american rescue plan,

a plan that will provide immediate relief to america's cities, towns, and villages, and directly to the american people. this past weekend, the senate advanced this legislation, and very soon, the president of the united states, joe biden, will sign the american rescue plan into law. >> kamala harris, the u.s. vice president. good morning alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jon ferro. looks like this for the s&p 500, almost up 40. we advance a full one percentage point. yields are down by six basis points driving everything. that is the catalyst for the rice asset worldwide. the fx market euro is stronger, dollar weaker pretty much against everything. the lire is firmer by 2%. the peso up by more than 1%.

it is yesterday upside down. tom: but i would go further than that. there is a different feeling off of the cdc headline yesterday and what the oec codifies we have been hearing from our guest on our simulcast. jack fitzpatrick with us out of washington. i'm calling us forward to a scheduled speech thursday from the president, and he will speak to covid, no doubt good news. but there are other issues, stimulus front and center. maybe beneath the fold of too many internet sites are the migrants and children on the border. let's line those ducks up. let's start with the children on the border. how big of and issue is this for the president? >> a very significant one. it's one he is pressured more on by republicans in washington. there's a lot of confusion about how exactly the president is going to address immigration

legislation and the fact that there is essentially an emergency on the border that complicates that further. it would be a quick bill they need to do, to increase resources, or make things a little murkier with some of his broader immigration for a bigger build on the road. tom: i know john wants to go to stimulus and the dynamics of the last couple days. this is a victory lap for the president on the pandemic, isn't it? jack: yes, this is a huge one. 14 hundred dollar checks show people democrats can follow through on the things they ran on. the child tax credit is something they are really celebrating. they lost on the minimum wage, that was a significant portion that was a different -- disappointment. i think it was an a plus or a b minus for many democrats. jon: can we get the roadmap from you when the vote is expected? jack: it'll probably be

tomorrow. there was a paperwork issue. it could be late today or probably tomorrow. the vote looks good, but it has narrow margins. at the houses expected to pass it tomorrow and biden signed it soon after that. jon: how quickly do you expect us after this, infrastructure negotiations? jack: they are already starting to talk about and biden has withheld. there's a lot of conversation about how to address infrastructure. biden could move to that quickly. that does get murky with how they want to address it. they are not entirely clear if they go the reconciliation /partisan routes or if it has to be bipartisan. they have to put thought into how to approach that procedurally. in terms of their focus, that is the next big thing that they will move quickly on. lisa: the process really matters when it comes to taxes and whether or not the nation

decides on that, how likely it is we will see proposals for higher taxes later this year. jack: we know the biden administration and a lot of congressional democrats want to increase the corporate tax rate, increased taxes on the highest earners and larger corporations. the question is do they hold it into an infrastructure package or is there climate related taxes that could also be a pay for on that? the question on whether it has to be bipartisan or partisan, which is a procedural and political question, because joe mentioned forced them into bipartisanship even if they don't need to, according to the parliamentarian, is a pretty big x factor. it's not clear how they will approach that in its own bill for taxes or in a bill that pays for everything else. that is one of the biggest things they have to decide relatively soon. lisa: before we let you go, i want to ask about the pandemic

and the idea of the cbc guidance i came out yesterday saying people who get vaccinated, they can meet up with other people who have not gotten vaccinated as long as they are low risk, in their own homes, and signed all sorts of waivers. there wasn't much more freedom for getting vaccinated. how much pushback is the cdc getting and administration getting for not taking a more liberal approach with what you can do want to get jabbed? jack: we have not heard much about pushback against the cdc yet. the administration really has taken a conservative approach to saying we will have the number of vaccines we need by mid-to-late may, but it could be a long time before life is back to normal. when you get vaccinated, it is most effective something like a month after that, so the administration has really been careful about making promises about life going back to normal wholeheartedly for a while after

there are enough vaccines. jon: always good to see you, jack. jack fitzpatrick of bloomberg government. for about six months we have been talking about the prospect of vaccine passports to travel. it was qantas that started the conversation. i imagine behind the scenes, and i've reporting recently, that there is a huge lobbying against it from the airline industry. tom: i don't get it. in the west wing of the house, off the master bedroom we have the shelf where you have all your garbage on it and i have the kids passports on it. i'm looking at the passport before i'm coming in trying to pick out a bowtie and, john, why can't we do that with the vaccine? what is the difference? jon: hon what, the passports? tom: yeah, the passports. -- tom: i'm standing there looking at my passports thinking why can we do that now? jon: this sort of dominates

everything still, the idea of creating a two tier to tidy -- two tier society where people are not vaccinated. tom: why don't people just get vaccinated? jon: i think once you get close to 20%, 25%, 13 percent. lisa: there's also a fear that once there is ample supply of people have had obstacles to getting any of owned mint, they will not try as hard one third is enough vaccine. that is one theory. tom: they will certainly try as hard as they can if they can't get on an airplane. lisa: fair. the other issue is people don't have a sense of how contagious somebody might be if they get infected, once they get vaccinated, so that could accelerate the spread that is already accelerating. jon: you are essentially saying it is a social issue or scientific issue, can these be grounded in social issues or scientific ones? lisa: that's a good question. i'm not going to answer it. we can asked one of our esteemed

guests. tom: we have to go to break? i don't want to go. i want to talk about ethereum now. jon: i definitely want to go to break. lisa: [laughter] jon: this time the only person with that shelf? bowties and passports? ♪

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jon: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is " "bloomberg surveillance"." it is truly yesterday upside down. the nasdaq down yesterday by too boring 4% and futures up 2.4%. the s&p 500, futures bouncing back by more than a percentage point. yesterday, down .5%. shout out to lou wang. the s&p 500 yesterday, a quarter of its members, the weight of big tech just sucking the slower . the divergence between some of these is really interesting too. we get to the bond market, through this week, three year option lisa was talking about that ends tomorrow. thursday, yields all the way in,

down seven basis points to about 153. a turnaround. these yields are driving everything, from day -- big tech to the equity markets. the obvious readthrough is stronger dollar in yesterday's session. the dollar against the lira has been a seven to eight percentage point move. in today's session, dollar lira coming back in 2%. that is lira strength. euro, the euro strength. this morning, it is about dollar weakness and it is broad-based. tom: two ideas, new weakness on low yield. i expect a two year yield to .1587. we want to celebrate right now the career of david pearl of epic investment partners. is the mechanical engineer out of stanford and the world of cash flow resides on the

shoulders of bill priest and david pearl in epic investments. their books -- you have been talking about the universal of -- university of pennsylvania. throw up that slide ruler you had years ago. for those of you younger, this is how we got through school, and you can't understand logs unless you physically use a slide ruler. this is all ancient history. wide to those calculators still have value when you calculate the cash flow forward? >> it's good to have something you rely on that is easy to use. today, you can put any of this into your computer or your phone and get the answer for discounted cash flows, but it is still nice to do it by hand.

all of us keep these around because we are used to them and they are comfortable. tom: is it hard in a booming economy coming out of a pandemic to discern quality cash flow? is it hard for you and bill right now to figure out where the winters are on cash flow or is it easy beats? >> it has actually been really good coming out of this. last year, during the pandemic, which really hurt from february through september, the market just rewarded companies that could do business during a lockdown, which tended to be internet and high-growth companies. many of which had no earnings, thinking of netflix in real cash flow terms. valuations got quite a surge. the fed help to this by bringing rates to zero, so during those nine months, the companies that had no earnings beat the

companies that had earnings by something like 4x. then you get to companies that had earnings and we had record valuations in the stock market. then the have-nots, the companies locked down or economically sensitive, became extremely cheap, whether they were consumer discretionary, financials or industrials, and they have taken off. they really started at the beginning of q4, and the pfizer vaccine approval was the catalyst. those stocks, notches value, economic sensitivity stocks, have outperformed ever since. lisa: this is a consensus trade, that the cyclicals will outperform some of the -- some of the lesser-known stocks will do the best this year as big tech will underperform. i don't understand with the model is here. how do you determine this is -- whether this is a recovery trait and how much more has to run given the low yield environment

it has, driving the cash into equity. jack: people are getting back to normal -- >> people are getting back to normalcy. the propensity of people to spend is high. we will see spending by consumers, 70% of gdp really rocket up and it'll be in areas like restaurants, travel, it's going to take a couple years to get back to where we were before the pandemic. does a really upside in some of these stocks as you go forward.

the other thing is the valuations were incredibly low. in financials, they were trading below tangible book. we usually do not care about book value, but tangible book is cash. they were trading as if they were going to be insolvent below their cash value. even though financials are up already percent to 50%, they have, for the next year to two years, a great outlook has loan volumes start to ramp up, credit improves as we get out of this, and yield curve steepening increases profitability. three reasons why financials keep going for quite a while. that said, we see the biggest opportunities in mid-cap stocks. mid-caps have underperformed over the last two to three years by lots. so we have a big valuation difference. the small and midsized banks are growing in double digits and

trading at 10 to 12 times earnings with high r.o.e.'s, and it will accelerate. jon: let me jump in quickly because this is really important. i want you to build on this. there's a research void in possibly mid-caps. i think it was chris harvey of wells fargo that turned around and said it is a stock-pickers paradise. many people have not picked to stocks for a long time because you could sit in the benchmark, the s&p 500, and make money. can you tell me where that research void is now away from the mecca caps where you find your edge? >> absolutely. the market was so narrow last year that six stocks had two thirds of the return of the stock market, which were basically the faang stocks. now, as you have the other 2994 stocks of the russell 3000 to pick from, you have fertile territory. we have our own analyst. this is where our buy side can

shine in every study academically says if you're good at picking stock, you will do better in small and mid-cap stocks because they are less efficient. there is less research coverage. you need to think of apple and amazon literally 100 coming. we have stocks in the portfolio in the $10 billion market range that have one to two analysts. smaller than that, stocks have zero analyst coverage. so really, it does pay to do your own research on a smaller and mid-caps. some of these are substantial companies, but they are not planning to get the coverage. there a real advantage in this. we see this in the thousands of midsized banks, small and mid banks, as well as industrial companies where there isn't a lot of coverage and they are not interesting to most of austria. jon: the price action over the last 24 hours underlined that.

if you took out facebook, amazon, apple, microsoft, tesla from the price action yesterday, the s&p 500 had an update, not a down day. tom: it's the idea of rotation. let's bring this back to foundation. do we extend beyond the reversion of the mean or do we go to the beleaguered of the last five years? >> i think this goes on longer because that is where the growth of profit is. it is the fact that we won from a period where restaurants were closed, leisure and travel was closed, to where they are getting back to normal. so they will have the fastest year-over-year revenue and earnings growth, whereas the typical growth stocks, they are fine but it is not going to get any better. if it were like an amazon, the comps year-over-year will be harder, the valuations are very full. tom: we gotta go because of

time but i know you are retiring in 2006. can you tell priest that he can't retire? >> only leaving the office one way, that's that. tom: you must read william preece on cash flow and shareholder value. it is absolutely a must read. i love these guys that are just pure let's find the cash flow. jon: fantastic to catch up with david. his point on coverage i think is critical. the big mega caps, the research companies on the planet, where did you -- where do you get an ad? if this is really a stock pickers paradise, where do you find the edge? tom: it is gospel to me, small-cap, mid-cap, and you gotta be there. i would emphasize that small-cap

goes to sleep for a while, mid-cap is there every day trying to get it done in america. lisa: i do wonder how much robinhood complicates the story, especially given the fact you have a lot of companies not moving fundamentals, specific mean stocks. at the same time, they take on a bigger portion of the index. i know it is specifics -- specific stockpicking but it is interesting to see how distorted fundamentals and cash flow some of these names have gotten. tom: you are dead on. i'm going to give you two keywords, lori kell the see no - - kelvisino. people are so afraid of rival and -- robinhood they are hiding in value and have missed the growth of mid-cap and small-cap. jon: coming up on this program, a doctor from john hopkins on the cdc new guidelines on those of you that have been back said

what you -- vaccinated what you canning still cannot do. the nasdaq is absolutely flying. it is yesterday upside down. it yields up yesterday and down this morning. down almost seven basis points. from new york alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> with the first word news i'm ritika gupta. the house takes up the 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus bill today. sometime tomorrow, the democrats are expected to approve the measure. janet yellen is dismissing fears the package is so big it will cause an inflation problem. she says it turns -- if it turns out to be inflationary, there are tools to deal with that. donald trump has backed off his threat to sue republicans for using his name to raise money. the republican national

committee says the former president has given approval for his name to be used in fundraising and other materials. he said in a statement last night the contribution should only be made to his political action committee and other entities he controls. a swiss drugmaker will produce russia's sputnik coronavirus vaccine had a factory in italy, the first european production deal for the russian shot if -- and mario draghi has promised to speed up the vaccination campaign. according to filings, 80 million shares of zoom were traded last week. this is valued about $6 billion. gap is considering to sell its operations in china. gap could keep the business. revenue has been shrinking and

accounts for 5% of gaps total. -- gap's total. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> fully vaccinated people can visit with other vaccinated people in small gatherings indoors without wearing masks or

physical distancing. we are talking about private settings where everyone is vaccinated. jon: a doctor of the cdc on one vaccinated people can do now. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action, up call it 46 points higher on the s&p favre -- s&p 500. we are absolutely flying on the nasdaq. real turnaround from the last 24 hours. yields up and yields lower, down seven basis points. this great rotation all started with the first headline on the vaccine at the start of november. since then, to borrow a phrase, small caps truly to the moon. tom: and again, i want to emphasize in the last hour of our simulcast, we have seen a nice lift to the market.

right now and the headline i'm sure all of you saw yesterday, from the cdc of atlanta, amateur doll john joins us with johns hopkins. i know the cdc was a cool place to work million years ago, they did malaria out of world war ii and built out the excellence of america in microbiology and virology. that headline yesterday when you saw yesterday, how did you respond? >> i thought this was something well anticipated that people wanted to get guidance like this. i expected cdc guidance to be cautious, and i think they were cautious. at least it shows people what the future holds and it is important to remember this cdc guidance is the first iteration and something that will evolve as more data becomes available in the cdc gets more comfortable. expect this to be revised and more and more guidance changed for those vaccinated. it really shows you why

vaccination is important and why will change your life -- your life and give you your life back. lisa: why are they being so conservative with their approach? >> i think they're being conservative because they are a big public health agency, talking about public health, they want to get it right and have had missteps during the early parts of the pandemic and do not want to relive that. they will make a decision that is data-driven. once enough data has accumulated maybe on a subnet -- asymptomatic spread on a country like israel where so many people have been vaccinated, they will have this threshold crossed and then make a change. it's not uncommon to be more cautious than what i as an individual might tell my patients vaccinated. so i think it is par for the course. lisa: the weight of the risks are not equal, the idea the more people get vaccinated, the more transmission mechanism seems to be broken and we see a decline in the number of cases. can we get a sense of how much the vaccinations that have already been distributed have

already reduced the spread of the virus, and if we got it that's much more quickly, if we would have that much slower of a spread. >> the general principle holds, but it is hard to untangle mask wearing, social distancing, how much population immunity is around because people got infected, plus the vaccines. the vaccine component will increase over time. each that goes into a persons arms, it makes the virus more difficult because they have less people to infect. i think you will see, for example, if you can gather indoors with vaccinated people, what is the difference between having vaccinated people in a restaurant? i think it will be not to that much of a difference. i think there will be guidance to reopening restaurants as we get more data. jon: we have made tremendous progress in some states that have moved forward. texas dropping the mask mandate and i think wyoming joining them. how concerned are you about that right now? >> i'm concerned about one aspect of it, dropping of the

mask mandate. i think there's an argument to be made for increasing capacities at stores and restaurants, but in order to do that safely from a business continuity perspective, you want your business patrons and employees to be wearing masks. there are tens of thousands of cases every day. i think keeping the masks in place until we get further along in this rollout will be easier to stay at the high-capacity level without getting cases among your employees, patrons, and having to do quarantine and contact tracing. i think we should separate those two things. tom: the president will lay out the path forward thursday, and part of this is the mystery of what you are very comfortable with, these viruses. how do they go away? if we all get vaccinated like the smallpox or any other horrific illness, or covid, where it bad viruses go? >> smallpox is the only human disease ever eradicated, and

that is the exception to the rule. it's hard to eradicate a disease. a disease like covid-19 that comes from a virus that causes about 25% of our common cold, spreads efficiently, and we know it comes from bats but we don't know where it has come from. that is not something that will ever go to zero. we won't ever eradicated but we will make it much more controllable. we will make it so we cannot cause serious disease, hospitalizations, death. it is not something making a go completely away. it is making it a manageable problem. vaccines all do that well. jon: i think many people are asking if we get a new variant, how quickly these new vaccines can respond to that, the lag time. how quickly do you think we can respond? >> immediately. mrna vaccines can be tweaked in a matter of days or maybe a matter of hours. it is the question of doing,

having enough production capacity to put a new version of the vaccine out there. i don't think we are cross that threshold. even when you look at the variance of concern, all of those, even in the face of these variance, the vaccine stops serious disease, hospitalization, and death. that is the threshold we have to worry about. are people getting vaccinated or infections lending them in the hospital? that is the threshold for where we tweak the vaccine. jon: we appreciate your time and ongoing contribution to this program. john hopkins for center security senior scholar. these vaccines are tremendously good at venting severe disease and severe cases and preventing hospitalization. tom: all those numbers are good, and there was this worry of the plateau over the last 10 years -- 10 days. you can look at 14 day moving

averages and everyone has their surveys they love. i look at three or four and the vectors are in the right direction. that is all we can say. jon: let's look at a single data point, 2.1 7 million doses per day. tom: rounded up, john. lisa: once you get the j&j vaccine out, you can get single shots, it will ramp up that much faster. you wonder about the b.1.1.7 variant spreading rapidly in florida and some of these other races we have in other areas. just to insert a little gloom. jon: that seems to be a fair tail risk. that's kind of the one thing that still shines brightly for many people on the dashboard. lisa: and there was a case of the south african variant detected in colorado. concerns around the edges. jon: from new york city this morning, good morning. coming out, a more near -- morgan stanley investment manager.

it is turnaround tuesday. it is now yesterday upside down. equities up 43. up a little more than 1%. yields come in six basis points. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> yields are not so high that we will economic deterioration. >> a tremendous amount going to justify higher yields. >> there is a strong correlation between their last two rounds of stimulus checks and the version you're seeing. >> if the fed starts talking about tapering their asset purchase program, that will be negative to risk assets. >> a falling unemployment rate -- if not, that will hike -- they are going to wait. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jon: good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live come alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. we are off to the tom: races this morning. tom: