your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. >> the $1.9 trillion u.s. stimulus, we think that could lift mobile gdp growth by about one full percentage point. >> we are about to have $2 trillion stimulus, so the propensity to spend is very high. [indiscernible] >> they are not going to hike when they sniff out inflation. they are going to wait. >> at some point, fed policy is going to shift. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene,

jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. i thought international women's day was wonderful yesterday. abby joseph cohen said it better than anyone, wipe away the gloom. up, up would go. jonathan: let's talk about the dominant call of the last month, from ellen's and her of morgan stanley -- from ellen zentner of morgan stanley, 6.5% growth for u.s. gdp in 2021. i think one of the most powerful things that could happen from the federal reserve tomorrow when they meet is upgrading those forecasts and keeping the dot plot most exactly where it is. tom: and michael mckee would say those forecasts really matter. what i think is important, from

the oecd, it is not just about the united states. you can get that lift worldwide. jonathan: we see a plan downing d.c. -- to see a plan down in d.c. to make that much of a difference. the forecast for the u.s. is effectively doubled. does it really bleed over to the rest of the world, or does this just fueled the story of the u.s. decoupling for the year ahead? tom: futures up 33, nasdaq up a little more. you go one way one day, one way the other day. lisa, what do you see out a month, or dare i say three months? lisa: that is when the gloom will actually end for people who could start traveling again and get employed again. the gloom ended in november in markets, let's be clear. right now we are still on the precipice of the end of gloom in the economy, the idea that we can get back to normal. the question is, can we sustain

momentum in markets through the economic when you have this idea of inflation? longer-term inflation expectations, one of the most contentious issues right now that i see. tom: let's go wicked narrow here. mayer de blasio yesterday opens the high schools of new york city. what does that symbolize to you? lisa: it symbolizes he is under a lot of pressure to get the schools open, and also the issue we had heading into the end of this year, when kids will not be vaccinated. at what point do you prioritize public health? at what point is this an issue of mitigating the most severe illness going forward? tom: we are going to go wicked wide now on our simulcast. i am going to look at the two-year yield. that is the depth of the short-term market, and it is coming up a little bit. jonathan: it becomes a problem for the fed if it starts to respond to better economic data. a blue -- a blowout jobs

report, it didn't really react at all. they can call that a statement of confidence. at the front end, if you start to get yields higher on the two-year on the back of better data that is not consistent with their own dot plot, that is where the credibility challenge starts to get a little more fuel. i imagine that is when the fed starts to lean and aggressively and verbally. tom: i am going to do the data check. mark mccormick with that data check. we get a churning dollar today. swiss franc weaker as well. the vix comes in 31 on the gloom to 24.82. jon will worry about the market as he flogs "the real yield" over the next hour. jim paulsen joins us now, keep investment officer at leuthold weeden.

how do you recalibrate given all of the turmoil of 2020 into the first three months of this year? how do you reset right now? jim: well, i think i am just most focused on, in my entire career going back to 1983, my fastest growth rate ever experienced in a calendar year was 1984, when it was a little over 8%. i think we've got a shot of taking that out this year, having growth north of 8%. if we do, that is growth we haven't seen may be a handful of times in the entirety of history. you can talk about inflation coming up a little bit, interest rates coming up a little bit, but if we have anything of that ballpark of growth, we are also going to have a earnings which are much higher than people currently have forecasted for this year, probably more like $200 in the s&p 500. with that, at least for this

year, it is just going to be hard to keep a good equity down long-term over the course of this year. if we are also talking 5% growth in 2022, we could have a lot of interest rate inflation pressure and still have an equity market that can do well in that environment. jonathan: that is the big point, whether this year ends in june and people think, what does 2020 to look like -- what does 2022 look like? jim: i agree with that. i am pretty confident for this year, and if we run hard this year, let's say through the fall, we could get a big correction at some point. 2022 is going to be an adjustment year, i think. our policy officials have done everything they possibly could to create inflation, and my

book. we have done more than ever before to create inflation. the problem is we've got a lot of disinflationary force in the world with nasty and continued that global demographics, including here, and also, the leading force of the emerging world story, china has worse demographics than any of us. that is a pretty powerful displaced force. we have a technology sector leading the world, which is nothing but excuse disinflation -- which does nothing but eschew s disinflation everywhere. we had monetary velocity for more than a decade, so you could maybe a love -- maybe have a lot of money growth. we have disinflationary mindsets in the world after 30 years of disinflation that are tough, i think, to change or alter, and i think we will get a pickup in productivity because when i look back historically, when you have

a big run in growth stocks over the last several years, typically that is followed rather regularly by a pickup in productivity. so my guess, inflation is going to be a burst in the next 12 months, and then calm down again and maybe allow this recovery to continue for several more years. jonathan: growth is going to be better into the middle of this year. inflation is going to pick up. we know all of this. what is amazing, take able, take -- take a bull, take a bear, they agree on this. there's people who think rates will rise, and people who think they won't. what is your game plan? how do you step into risk or step out? how do you approach that story? jim: i think you want to minimize your exposure to bonds. i think you want to just have

that absolutely minimized. i think you want to stay more cyclically oriented here, and i think you want to be away from the united states. this is a synchronized recovery, and those markets are coming back, too, but they are not going to feel nearly pressure that we are going to get in the united states coming from overheat pressure. it would have a good overweight away from the united states. beyond that, i think it is going to be really difficult to call this correction when it comes, but we can all try. if we really get excited here and we go a lot higher, let's say we blow through 4000, go up to 4400 or something here, i would probably park it in cash and see if we can get a sentiment correction that will be pretty big and pretty nasty. if we do have one of those, maybe reevaluate that point, whether we have a resting nibble

-- we have a sustainable recovery going on. if we get to this year end and the unemployment rate is headed towards for percent or something, i have a very different approach perhaps then if we get there and we are still at 5% or something. how tight are the resource markets looking as we head into that next year? i'm going to let some of that play out, but some of this also matters about whether the market goes nuts between now and then, or whether it corrects. lisa: there's also a question about big tech. you have seen the long-term trend remaining the way it has been, a low-inflation, longer growth environment. is it time to buy the dip on this? jim: i think it is not so much a problem with technology. i think they are going to continue to dominate the world over the next five to 10 years. but i think the earnings growth at this point doesn't look as good relative to what small caps can be doing right now, or cyclical sectors, or even more commodity oriented blaze.

-- oriented plays. if you are going to win in this market, you've got to be in the broader market plays, which are more cyclical. the problem with that is it means you are going to introduce yourself downside draws that could be fairly dramatic. when this market pulls back on overheat concerns, i think technology holds up a little bit. i would much rather hold that then i would other defensive sectors. jonathan: jim, really smart, sharp. great debate there. this is an 11% move, a 10 point 93% move lower on the s&p 500 app of the february 12 hi -- a 10.93% move lower on the s&p 500 off of the february 12 high and the last month.

pretty brittle -- pretty brutal. tom: we are looking for an entry point. jonathan: ok. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, tom keene, never change. futures up more than 2% on the s&p 500. julie norman coming up from ucl on a monster plan down in dc. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the oecd says a u.s. recovery turbocharged by the new stimulus package will help power a faster than expect a global upswing, and europe could be left behind. the paris-based organization says it now expects global output to rise above pre-pandemic levels by the middle of this year. the biden adminstration is now looking ahead to its next stimulus package, and it will face more obstacles than the one on the verge of getting through congress without a single republican vote. it will address infrastructure,

climate, health care, and libby, or more, but republican opposition will make it harder to pay for it all. a measure will be unveiled after the president signs the coronavirus relief bill. a highly contagious variant of the coronavirus is circulating in florida, raising turn that a resurgence of the virus is possible in the state and beyond. the per capita rate of patients in florida hospitals as above the national average. china's national people's congress, the future of china's system, is at stake. critics say a move will tighten beijing's holdover hong kong and leave no room for political opposition. bitcoin rallied above 54,000 dollars today, heading by has level in. the digital current -- in two weeks. the digital currency has been rising steadily. meanwhile, technical

announcements from evercore -- technical analysis from evercore estimate that it could rise further. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ tika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ sec. yellen: in the united

states, we have been talking about this is a k-shaped crisis. people at the top end of the distribution tend to be doing very well, and people closer to the bottom have been the hardest hit. it is an extremely unfair thing that has happened. jonathan: secretary yellen of the u.s. treasury. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tuesday morning looks like this. here are the scores. on this be 500, we advance. on the nasdaq as well, up by more than 2%. on the s&p, up by 0.9%. -- up by 1.9%. in the fx market, dollar weaker, euro stronger. these moves come off the boil as this session grows. the equity market was higher. euro-dollar, euro was stronger. treasury yields lower as well. we give some of that up just a little bit, although i have to emphasize what is happening here. that is secretary yellen,

defined and conditioned by her experience as the vice chair and chair of the federal reserve in the previous cycle, and that is a huge turnaround. so many of them on the fomc have been totally conditioned by what happened last time, and they want to wait it out on monetary policy, and go hard and stick with it on fiscal. tom: i can't emphasize enough, her experience with slack in the labor economy, that is absolutely original as treasury secretary to have that background. what do you presume is an unemployment rate where yellen is? jonathan: it could have gone way lower than 4%, and i don't even know the headline and implement rate is something they look at for the fed. that won't be the driving factor for them the same way. tom: part of that is a two-part american economy, and that comes to one of our themes percolating here. no it is going to be getting bigger. let's get a brief from julie

norman, university college of london professor. we talk about the dispersion of this american fiscal stimulus. how would you presume that stimulus will pervade out into the global economy? julie: well, obviously for biden and the democrats, they were thinking mostly domestically with this bill, really trying to provide relief on the one hand and stimulus on the other. so you are exactly right that this will also have ripple out effects on a largely just because of the size of the bill, $1.9 trillion, going into the u.s. economy. it is by nature going to have ripple out effects. at the same time, europe and the u.k. have been also taking its own measures, also pumping a lot of government money into their own economy at the same time. tom: you were expert, and frankly the whole ucl shop is, on the austerity of england,

the austerity of europe. is the u.s. dead with austerity? have we pushed austerity aside permanently? enda: i think one thing we see in this bill is certainly -- julie: i think one thing we see in this bill is certainly a move away from austerity, definitely in terms of popular support for the bill. 62% of americans supported this and have really been quite open to this idea of government spending to help in areas where people seem to feel there is a great need right now, not only for covid tests and vaccines and whatnot, but for help the schools, helping with insurance, child tax credits, nutrition, etc. there seems to be more of an appetite for government spending then there was 10 years ago. lisa: to jon's point, there's a renewed appetite for spending because in the past, the frugality of the united states didn't work. you are seeing diverging efforts

in china, where they are putting less stimulus into the economy because they were scarred by some of the empty cities and roads to nowhere, and you have the u.s. doubling down on stimulus because they had the opposite experience. can both approaches be right? julie: i certainly think they can, and that is because those two contexts are so different. china you have working from an economy that has shifted from having over 50% extreme poverty just 20 years ago to now being down to about 5%, one of the -- one of the sharpest declines we have ever seen. whereas the other is trying to recover from a very sudden jolt, so companies are going to respond to that differently. they saw that happen with some of those ghost cities, but

there certainly is the question overall. lisa: have you studied at what point it starts to matter, how much policymakers have to look at the treasury yield to determine how much to spend? julie: of course. obviously we have seen that narrative part of being what is justifying these current policies, and many economists saying their rates are making all of this possible. you have heard some economists, even some democrats, saying that this bill could heat things up too quickly, that can't count on these rates to be lower and have this effect forever. so i think that might be some thing to watch out for. tom: one final question. if we heat up, isn't that a requirement to employ the bottom third or the bottom quartile of america? julie: i know that is what we were talking about with chair yellen and trying to address this unemployment slack.

this could be an aim for democrats as well, to try to bring that unemployment number down as far as possible. but knowing what bumps there will be and how long that will last remains to be seen. what we are seeing in this growth is short-term measures, and for long-term measures for the economy, i think we will have to wait and see. jonathan: thank you, julie norman, university college of london professor. i think what we forget is that we passed a $900 billion plan back in december, only a couple of months ago, so this is 900 billion dollars on top of $1.9 trillion that might get signed off on in the next couple of days. tom: the payoff here is growth. the timeline is not three years or five years. it is going to be a grossing us and a hope modeled out a decade, modeled 15 years to get out of

this natural disaster we have been in, and that is the timeline cbo is going to use. that is the timeline adults are going to use, and frankly the market and media aren't there. jonathan: the keyword for this administration, relief. lisa: although the payoff is growth. if the payoff grows and we are avoiding disinflation, is the growth going to come from that second round of stimulus for spending on real projects? this is one of the key debates when you talk about whether this is actually stimulus. tom: clearly, whatever your politics, this is historically an income substitution and replacement plan versus what we have seen many times before. jonathan: jared bernstein leads into the idea that this was a relief plan with a low multiplier. we can debate that with our guests in just a moment, but that is why they believe it won't be as inflationary and some people -- inflationary as some people think, but we will

see. coming up, david page of axa investment managers will weigh in on this. on the s&p, we advanced 0.9%. for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. here the cheat guide today. take yesterday and turn it upside down. on the s&p 500 we advance .9%, on the nasdaq up 2.2% after falling 2.4% yesterday. the next couple of days, important for the treasury market. three-year-olds today, tends tomorrow, 30 years after that. 30's growing by five basis points. 2.27 on 30's. the debate, when does the fed start to get concerned? the fed will start to get concerned when this changes. a little bit for you, a little bit for lisa.

this is the famed bloomberg barclays investment grade universe. what you see on this chart and for listeners on radio i will tell you, that is not a lot. a little bit of an inflection point at the end as we take borrowing costs back to summer. this is not a spread. this is the yields. yields are worse. we have had that inflection. it is not that brutal. lisa: it is little, and yet it has companies nervous and they are starting to frontload their borrowing. that is a key question. as they increase supply, does it exacerbate that move? that is a key question for those, including bank of america. jonathan: i agree. bank of america, their big call is this starts to widen out. it is not happened yet in a massive way, but it is happening. what is curious is some issuers

trying to get ahead of this. a massive weight of issuance last week. this week in the 4 billion range? lisa: something like that. jonathan: a bit more supply this week. that is what the fed will be concerned about. more supply and the yields go much higher. that is the famed bloomberg barclays agg. tom: there it is. this comes down to huge data worldwide. i go back to the great fortune i had in my youth of a meeting with john templeton in toronto years ago. it was a magical moment for me. he spent quality time with me and i will never forget the tennessee accent saying "tom, there will be a shortage of bonds." david page joins us from the huge french effort on quiet money. we are thrilled david page could give us wisdom.

there is not coming a shortage of bonds. what will yield do? david: there is no shortage coming for quite some time. there is a debate going on at the moment. the unknowns in the financial markets is the scale of inflation we will see generated when we see the rebound in growth we are looking to see, and just how much of a change in the reaction function has the fed come through? i think bonds are toying with that. as markets except you see a pickup in inflation, you'll see breakeven inflation come through. that is not too much of a concern for the fed or other asset classes. but as markets are concerned the fed will not be as good as its word, real rates are rising. the pickup and real rates is what is driving the dollar and the concerning corporate spreads.

that is when the fed will start to worry. it is that play markets are looking at now. the decision between how the fed reaction function plays out in how much of a pickup of inflation we are likely to see. jonathan: -- tom: i know john wants to go to the real yield, but i want to talk to you about the great unknown, which is how corporations and business adapt to this new world. how will officers adapt to what they have been dealt by president biden and others? david: that is one of the unknowns. what we are trying to see is whether or not this large call firms have, this excess liquidity, are they going to use that to pay down the debt, or will they have confidence growth is out there this is a good opportunity for investment. we may start to see a pickup in potential growth.

this could underpin immaterial turning point in what has been a bleak 10 years in terms of u.s. trained growth rates so far. if we see people sitting on the cash and not reacting, then there is a risk you see a short-term boost that fades thereafter. part of this is a confidence feature from corporate and household about how the system is going to be. that is why the stimulus has been necessary. lisa: went is debt inflationary and when is it deflationary? david: we will see. basically a debt will be inflationary if we are starting to drive an economy above its potential outcome. that is something we could see in the later years over the next few years. at the moment the u.s. economy, but other economies even more so are significantly in a period of

excess supply. we are trying to close the gap. we still have an unemployment rate that is close to 9% or 10% in the u.s.. still have unused capacity. we think that will close quickly and that has definitely helped, not only by the stimulus but the prescription. jonathan: i would love for you to break down the $1.9 trillion plan. and this concept of a multiplier, when the money goes to the economy, how it throws through the economy. does this $1.9 trillion plan have a low multiplier? david: by its construction it should be relatively high your your seeing household checks going to households that are low income. they are unlikely to have significant savings. they are likely to need this for income growth and likely to spend it.

that is the historical backdrop. a large chunk of that will go to people that want to spend money. the same with the unemployment benefits. going to people not thinking about whether they will have a holiday or not, it is going to people who need it. we will see a high multiplier from that sector. when we move into the small businesses, it is likely a lot of these businesses are taking damage. that covers $1.5 trillion, maybe less in terms of what we are talking. when you start pushing up to the $1.9 trillion, you end up in areas with a lower multiplier, for example state and local government. it is not obvious all of the state and local governments have spent the money from the cares act. when we see that coming through, the money may not be spent as quickly. it might be something that keeps the tax rates down in the future

that means it is spent lower and does not have the multiplier effect as others. a portion of the $1.9 trillion will be a relatively high multiplier. jonathan: the administration said they think it has a low multiplier. talking to you, the impact this has on growth and inflation. i want you to run through money supply and the velocity of on a. money supply is starting to widen out. can you run us through the velocity of money and what that means for your inflation outlook? david: the velocity of money is what you do with that money, and the problem for estimating it is it tends to act as a residual. what we saw in the gmc, another -- the gfc is liquidity was not a signal of what people would do, it was not a signal the velocity of money would rebound, it was literally money pushed into their accounts.

thanks, corporate, households. it was not spent, it got reabsorbed, and that is why we saw a big pickup in money supply and no reaction. largely speaking, we expect the money supply to be the same, but we are in a different situation. there a couple of unknowns. we have a bigger money supply. we have an opportunity where households and businesses may choose to catch up on some of the last -- if the money rebounds and we have this large stop, that is something -- this large stock -- lisa: hold on. the question is whether the checks to companies and households that are lower income could cause the spending we are talking about, not just checks in aggregate, but the specificity of who receives those checks. is that your sense? david: yes.

i think the fact they are skewed towards lower income people means you will see a higher multiplier and new money coming through being spent because it is making up for the lost income , the 9% to 10% on employment rate. jonathan: david page. on the individual components of a much bigger debate on the outlook for higher inflation. tom: the debate is there. to be fair to you, you go to the fed meeting, maybe this be a fed meeting with a huge surprise. some straight talk about their belief on price change. jonathan: doria narrate -- to reiterate, for the fed next week , this is the forecast. 4.2 percent for gdp growth in america this year. tom: gotta go up. jonathan: oecd at 6.5.

unemployment at 5% year end. they have to go up and change on a gdp forecast. how they move their dot plot will be the story. if we get the neil dutta world, where we get an upgrade the forecast but not a corresponding lift and the trajectory of rate hikes, you have an easier fed. michael: i will go tom porcelli on you. it is about wages. where is there evidence of the when of wage inflation? lisa: that has been a persistent message. how do they dismiss the faster growth and say it justifies the low rate environment they are in ? this is a key question. how do they transfer the focus away from that to wages? tom: -- jonathan: better growth ahead for 2021 or 2022, and they have to lean against rate hike

expectations. that will appear on the dot plot. that dot plot is often more of a hindrance than a help. i wonder if that will be the story next week? final word? tom? tom: we have to go to break. i have to cancel my order on gamestop. jonathan: i need a break. futures rebound. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. the house takes up president biden's $1.9 trillion bill today. tomorrow the democratic chamber is expected to approve the measure. janet yellen is dismissing fears the packages so big it will cause an inflation problem. she says if it turns out to be inflationary their tools to deal with that. the eu is set to go at it alone on a tax on tech giants such as

facebook and google if there is no deal with president biden and other partners. that is according to an early draft of a communication obtained by bloomberg. leaders will discuss additional tax at a summit this month. the trump administration was prepared to impose sanctions if the eu went ahead with the tax. a swiss drugmaker will produce russia's sputnik coronavirus vaccine at a factory in italy. it is the first european production deal for the russian shop. italy's prime minister mario draghi has promised to speed up the countries vaccination campaign the founder and ceo of zoom has donated more than a third of his stake in the company. he donated almost 80 million shares of the firm last week. the shares were valued at about $6 billion. no word on who the recipient is. gap is said to be considering a sale of its operations in china. bloomberg has learned

deliberations are in early stages. revenues from asia have been shrinking. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we believe we are in a v-shaped recovery. we believe earnings growth will

be explosive. we believe value and growth will do very well. we understand that rotation. we also know there are minefields in value. earnings will come out of this, and with each quarterly earnings report we will have more reason to buy the market. tom: that is an important piece of audio from cathie wood. ark investment. i am sure all of you know who she is and the notoriety. what is important is how balanced her approach is. barry ritholtz joins us on the state of where we are. his podcast is required listening for global wall street. longer conversations with important people. our running joke is everyone is a rate strategist. barry ritholtz is a rate strategist. i want you to under -- i want you to explain to all of our audience why everybody in the

barry ritholtz world focuses on rates? barry: the risk-free rate of return is your frame of reference relative to what sort of expected returns you can have in the equity markets and how much risk is out there. when companies can borrow at no cost, it makes them more profitable and there stocks go higher. when consumers can get mortgages at 3% or 4%, it leaves that much more jingle in their pocket to spend and to drive retail sales. the concern has always been there is no such thing as a free lunch. if you keep rates down too long you will drop another inflationary spiral. rates have been way below normal since before 9/11 in 2001. that is 20 years already that that idea needs to be re-thunk

because so far it is not so. tom: i like that. that is cfa level four. cathie wood talks about how they will see growth and value participate, which goes to another theme, that corporate officers will adapt. are we underestimating our corporate officers on a microcosm basis? they will adapt to stimulus, they will adapt to pandemic change? barry: the last time we had a conversation about how ceos were one of the last group standing in the public opinion polls because they adapted so well in 2020. those are bigger companies. when we talk about adaptation, especially innovation, you have to look the small companies, the startups. that is what drives the major economic changes. it is just over an arc of years and decades. eventually big companies catch up.

look no further than tesla. they have been out a dozen years and have change the rest of the automobile industry. nobody wants to get amazoned by tesla. rather than lose they adapted to ev's. lisa: that is a specific story with tesla. there is a larger story we have brought forward and bought ourselves a bunch of years to grow into the valuations we have given some of these equities. we have brought forward the returns. equities have outperformed the economy and now the economy will have time to catch up while equities underperform. do you buy into that story? barry: it is one possible pathway can take. the old trope on -- the old joke on trading desks is just because something is overvalued does not mean it can stay overvalued for years and years. if you look at the long-term bull market, between half and

three quarters of the gains come not from increases in earnings but from multiple expansion, meaning investor sentiment gets more optimistic. they are willing to pay more and more for the same dollar of earnings. we are along the way in that process. a lot of pd expansion has to -- a lot of pe expansion has taken place. tom: nasdaq up 2.5%. lisa: almost a racing yesterday's losses. i wonder what will take for people not to buy the dip? barry: it takes a long time to change that muscle memory. you have to keep in mind, i mentioned the secular bull market. this 10% correction, 20% bear market is nonsense. it is a terrible trope and i think it hurts investors. apel market is not only the sentiment shift -- a bull market is not only the sentiment shift, it is huge secular forces that change things.

that includes everything from technology and biotech and how the economy shifts. the classic example is post-world war ii, when you had the rise of the automobile and suburbanization, electronics and commercial aviation. we have 100 separate industries all moving forward. look at what took place with mrn a. this was a glint in scientists eyes 20 years ago. there are hundreds of technologies like that. you know me. remember in the great financial crisis, no one was more bearish than me. there are a lot of things to be optimistic about if you have a long-term perspective. a 10-year perspective. tom: we will have to leave it there. we have to get back to the optimism at hand. barry ritholtz, look to his podcast. you wonder what is the why of

this lift? i think there is a huge bet the options will not be as ugly as we saw last week. lisa: we saw a rally in treasuries. this reverses the concern about yield curve steepening. you have a growing number of economists and respected officials saying we are plugging a deficit, we are plugging a productivity gap. after that we can talk about stimulus. we are just continuing to plug that hole. that is where the stimulus is. it is not going to be inflationary. there is a question, is debt ever inflationary? in and of itself is deflationary. it is coming at a time where you have a recovery and investment in things that could be inflationary. there's a push pull leaving people trying to figure out how to maneuver. michael: -- tom: 108.87 on yen.

it is a turn year. all in all, it correlates to a terrific equity market. we see with the vix. down to 24.62. i find that important. what are you going to look for through the day? lisa: i want to see real yields. i want to see 10 year yield. i want to get a sense of how much people are ratcheting back there longer-term inflation expectations to take stock of the secular stagnation argument. tom: i thought you were going to bitcoin. 54,000. was anyone expecting bitcoin to go to the recent highs? lisa: what it you talk your broker. were you just talking to them about gamestop? tom: i took out of the market order on gamestop. lisa: they move in tandem. tom: maybe i will buy some gamestop when jonathan is

filming one of his properties. the vix, 24.61. stay with us through the day on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. senator rick scott on balance of power at the noon hour. ♪

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jonathan: it is yesterday in reverse. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. "the content of the open" starts right now. s&p 500 futures up 1%. we begin with the one issue dominating equity investors. >> there's a case for rotation. >> the transition from growth to value. >> the steepening of the yield curve. >> we will see days where tech bounces. >> rates will keep rising. >> we want to have shorter duration equities. >> people are realizing duration risk is real. >> is a straightforward. >> steepening yield curve. >> underpinned by the vaccination rollout. >> all of these things have been supportive of this rotation. >> growth, equities, that have led to fixed income. >> markets are worried about