global gdp growth. >> the propensity of consumers to spend is very high. >> it will be burst in the next 12 months and then we'll call him back down. >> the falling unemployment rate. they are going to wait. >> this policy inevitably is going to shift. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> $1.9 trillion. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." a monster plan about to be passed in the house in washington, d.c. tom: radically different than what we've seen in modern history. the deployment to the lower quartiles of the american economic pie is tangible. this will be felt differently in the next six to 12 months.

jonathan: that data is going to be booming in several months time. it's about how we respond to it. it's a psychological one. what do we look like at the turn of the middle of this year when that data is booming and how to market participants respond. tom: you had -- you texted me the morgan stanley right there. i would dovetail it with good news. this announcement by alaska leading the way in america where they will take vaccine of all above 16 years old is a bombshell. jonathan: more vaccines and slowly reopening across the nation. an upgraded forecast growth in america. lisa: this is the key question. people seem to reason further upgrading forecast. basically you got stimulus, you

got the vaccine schedule. the question is how quickly do we move to midcycle. how quickly do people move past the good news we are seeing right now to what happens next. jonathan: let's get to the price action. we look like this in the equity market. s&p 500 down a single point. a massive session on the nasdaq yesterday. the nasdaq 100 up four percentage points. into the bond market, yields are higher three or four basis points. lisa will walk you through the supply slate. in the fx market euro-dollar unchanged. muted price action outside the bond market. some important supply and data later this morning. >> i think there are key questions in the market. among them is inflation. you are getting a read on that when we get that cpi for

february in the united states. the partition between services and goods, that we will probably see. we will see the boost from gasoline prices. underneath the core inflation is not expected to increase that much. we have not seen the inflation everybody is expecting. as you were talking about the house set to have their final vote on this stimulus plan. all eyes are on what's next. to the democrats have enough political cloud and unity to get something else done and how much are they going to look towards rebuilding the economy for infrastructure spending and the progressive elements. we will speak with one of the advisors later in this hour. to your point about bond options, we will be getting u.s. will be selling $30 billion of 10-year note's as well as three-year notes yesterday. it went really well. people were worried we would get a repeat of the seven year auction.

a sign of how much demand there was. going back to 2018 when we saw the independent buyers coming in in force showing that there is a bid to buy bonds with yields as high as they are. that's part of the reason why there was a sense of stability under the market. jonathan: lisa, thank you yields are higher this morning. on a 10-year about 156. the headline from morgan stanley , gdp is now on track to reach pre-covid level by the end of the current quarter. tom: it's a timeline. everybody is dealing pro and con. not so much with what's going on but with the timing of all of this. jonathan: let's bring in bruce, jp morgan chief economist and head of global economic research. typically we start with the

analysis and get to the forecast. what is the call from you and the team for this year? bruce: the u.s. economy growing at a six -- 6.5% pace. huge and was 9% growth for the next two quarters. i want to emphasize the global dimension. the u.s. is lifting largely on fiscal stimulus. more lifting you get in western europe coming as the virus starts to come in. we have both the u.s. and western europe holding over the next couple of quarters. their mobility suggesting in february. tom: let's dovetail your world leading market economics with the economics of xavier martin. if i look at growth economics right now, how does a stimulus actually work in the emerging markets or in the jp morgan world?

how does it actually diffuse worldwide? bruce: i think what we will see is the dominant effect of spending in the u.s. and western europe which is going to be important from the rest of the world. that will lift everybody, but there are offsets in terms of buyer interest rates. the fed beginning to move towards that. in that effect it's a very clear positive. the other reaction which i think is important is china. they have had a successful recovery. they will tighten policy here which demand will slow otherwise -- on an otherwise booming global picture. lisa: how much of this is recovery from the lost growth and how much are we entering a new cycle of potential inflation? >> the way we've been thinking about this is to recognize

there's a bounce coming as we normalize and get bottleneck pressures as we see commodity prices. the inflation pickup here looks like it will bring u.s. and global inflation possibly to the highest we've seen in a decade. i think there's a lot of temporary forces that will start to dissipate as we get later in the year. however i think behind-the-scenes what we are seeing is committed policies, we are seeing with this stimulus a healthy balance sheet on the part of the household sector. we are seeing the interaction of fed policy and fiscal policy. i want to buy the reflationary trend and fade the bounce we will see which is been overstated the degree to which it is changing. jonathan: do you think that will be the dominant market narrative ? it's so important, the data will get better, we can agree on that. what the bears believe is inflation starts to run away in

the markets starts to tighten up and then we bring forward fed hikes as well. do enough people get to that view? bruce: there's no doubt over the next couple of months that we see these growth numbers the debate will be are going to overshoot on inflation and will the fed have to move earlier. i think the fed will be telling us until the end of 22 they are on hold, they are knocking to change their thinking anytime soon. if we are right will sue the number settle down. i think the bottom line here is we will definitely buy this. it's a different event. we have to get through this scare and i don't doubt there will be a lot of talk about whether inflation is getting out of control. >> i mention the timeline moments ago. michael has been a great leader

on potential gdp, what is the timeline to get back to 2% potential gdp? are we grossly off? is it farther up and we think? bruce: i think that's a hard one and we are struggling to try figure out the lasting implications of what's happening here. there are clearly some negatives here in terms of having created this sparring in the market that are going to continue here for some time, but at the same time we are getting a boost to growth and it's not only lifting back to its previous level, it's raising it above the path we were on. there some real possibilities here that dynamic create positive actions. our potential growth estimates for the u.s. are 1.5. we have not changed that yet. i am somewhat agnostic about the next couple of years will deliver on that front. jonathan: great to catch up.

we have to reset because later this morning we will catch up with jared bernstein. he will do his best to sell his plan. the him major of this shock is different than last year -- let -- the last shock. what are the lessons of the previous cycle permanent to this one if the shocks and the nature of these are so different. with the shallow recovery we saw 10 years ago more than a decade ago, the consequence of a policy or just the consequent of the nature of the shock on the back of massive deleveraging. this is going to happen really quickly. tom: i go back to jeffrey sachs and the partition of america. a general statement in the technology winners and losers. none of these stimuli do anything to this arch issue of how to track people into a modern technology world. so the partition remains. lisa: you raise a question here

about what is the lesson people learn. what of the think it's applicable to this different crisis. the lesson has been learned over decades with inflation coming down and this idea of how do you bring people into the labor force, it's not just the last crisis. the question is are people understating the potential for inflation or are they overstating it, which is worse? jonathan: can you imagine what that tug-of-war looks like this summer when we start to get the data. i think it will be fascinating and i think it's a psychological question. inflation will be moving to the upside. how does this market respond? how do perceptions of policy shifts adapt to that. >> i think those of the blunt instruments. i'm good to go to one bloomberg headline 20 minutes ago. adidas shows and up digital growth forward. we will see a lot of those

headlines. >> coming up, a conversation with the founding partners. they will be talking -- tom: saying -- jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it's one of the largest economic relief packages in u.s. history. the house said to give final approval to president biden's $1.9 trillion package. millions of american families will get one-time payments of $1400. more unemployment benefits.

they will keep national guard troops at the u.s. capitol through least may 23. it began after the january 6 riot and was set and on friday. last week the chief of the capitol police asked for an extension. in china, producer prices rose. that adds to the risk of global inflation. the chinese producer price index was up from a year earlier. china could start exporting inflation as factories raise prices to products sold abroad. analysts say they gained access to 150,000 surveillance cameras inside hospitals, police departments and schools. footage was exposed of carmaker tesla and a software provider. video was captured -- they say they are taking steps to prevent unauthorized access. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake,

powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is the biden american rescue plan. it will be followed by the

american recovery plan. it is about just that. saving lives and livelihoods and giving people hope for the future. jonathan: 1.9 trillion dollars and they are just getting started. nancy pelosi, the house voting on that plan later today. from new york city, good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. new price action this wednesday morning looks like this. we grind higher by not even a 10th of 1% in the fx market, euro-dollar stable. even with a move in the bond market. yields up by three basis points. tom: we are getting used to it. well said. two-year with some stability. i would note after the big day yesterday the fixed average 24 on 23.49. jonathan: excuse the cliches one day is not a trend.

we talked with blackrock and talked about symmetrical risk around treasuries after this massive move. blackrock sticking with us. tom: there'll be two hours of debate. two hours of debate today in the house. festivities in the house today, emily wilkins her to give us a brief. i know it starts at 9:00 a.m., do we need to tune in or is this boredom personified? >> we will have two hours of debate for the actual vote on the bill. these are taking longer because you cannot have 435 people packed into a room during a coronavirus pandemic. but we are expecting the bill to pass the house today. we heard yesterday from democratic caucus chair akeem jeffries who said he was 110% confident democrats have this vote to pass the bill and from

there send it to president biden's desk. >> went to the people get the check? >> the administration says they are aiming as soon as possible. you heard yesterday the press secretary say biden signature will not be on the checks. that is part of the process to expedite things out quicker and you for looking at what happened in december. tom: emily, john has his heart set on a down payment in the hamptons. when does he get the check from the stimulus? >> if he meets the proper cap. >> you don't have to humor tom. he is just trying to push john's buttons. we will hear a lot about the dow later today. there's a question of how quickly they will move on the next round of support stimulus, particularly infrastructure spending. there is a belief this is the last covid specific stimulus bill. what is next and what's the timeline? >> president biden has sort of

already pitching this next bill as stimulus but not for short-term, but long-term. helping a be stronger than it previously was. we are expect to hear more about this when president biden addresses the nation. lawmakers of already begun working on this. the question is both democrats and republicans are supportive transportation issues, infrastructure issues but there is still some big questions that will have to be figured out. how this is paid for. different things dealing with labor laws and regulations. there will be some sticking points. at this point it's something republicans and democrats are interested in getting done. >> what's easier, getting them to pass something on both sides of the aisle or getting democrats to unify around a specific plan? >> you saw the answer was

democrats decided this was just be easier for them to go it alone and get this done. one of the things you heard a lot with democrats is they made these promises to voters. i think you'd saw the $1.9 trillion number set pretty early on. this going to be a little bit less time with what happened in the last election. there will be desire once again to get something done in a bipartisan manner. but the fact of the matter is that reconciliation process required only democrat votes is still the path the democrats are looking at. >> this the issue here. he's already come out and said he wants this to be bipartisan when they go forward with the infrastructure negotiations. how are they going to do this? >> he is not the only one saying this is a recognition of across

the board there are certain things that can be done with reconciliation. there some infrastructure projects but quite simply can't go through that process. you need to go through the regular process and get those 10 republican senators. their discussions about dividing the bill, partially through reconciliation. i definitely think there is not just with mansion, but across the board on working with republicans for this. >> even though both sides of the aisle agree on the need for an infrastructure plan, it will be much harder to get it done then this plan was. jonathan: it's got the ear -- tom: it's got the earmarks involved as well. we need to get a box of cigars and that's where we will see the action. jonathan: would love to be able to travel down to the willard. lisa: there are some projections

coming out that 75% of the developed market countries, their populations will be vaccinated by late summer. >> amazing. let's finish there on a vaccine rollout. i think maryland the latest to start reopening and push that process as well. do you sense the administration will try to set the tone or let states run the show? >> i think president biden even before he was inaugurated isn't -- they focused on messaging around the coronavirus and vaccine rollout and what they want to see happen with schools in the economy. to a certain extent this was always something that would be left to states and localities as far as getting out individual vaccines. we see in the biden administration to get top level role talking with the vaccine manufacturer. at the end of the day, the federal government is not the

one putting shots in arms, it's a state and local thing. >> great to catch up. 2.1 5 million doses, that's your latest count of the daily average in the last seven days. 9.7% fully vaccinated, 18.4 of the -- 18.4% of the population has had a shot. >> i look at something off the radar which is not only the improvement of hospitalizations but it's the way we come down. the smoothness of the decline of hospitalizations nationwide is hugely optimistic. jonathan: the reopening is starting. that pushes really ramping up. lisa: people are exhausted. it's been a long 12 months and people are done and states are responding, they are dealing with economic issues. there's a question of whether they can hold off anymore. jonathan: coming up, the bloomberg opinion columnist and

former nato supreme allied commander. looking forward to that conversation later this morning. no drama here. bond market yields up by three or four basis points. a ton of supply in the next way for hours per this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. here is the price action. great conversation coming up on the show. we rollover just a little bit. the russell unchanged, the nasdaq down after a monster day of gains. i think tesla up about 20 on a single session. to the bond market, 10 supply later on. yields higher just a little bit. the curves just steepening. a mild one so far. the dollar really volatile over the last couple of sessions. a huge move against the yen on monday. today, the dollar unchanged.

tom: e.m. is a mess as well. particularly looking at chinese equities is a challenge. on march 10 we get out front of what was possibly my book of the summer. boy does james go to the top of the pile. the former nato supreme commander, we are thrilled he could join us. a 303 page novel that begs to be read now. admiral, things for joining us. the banner that begins -- thank you for joining us. the banner that begins your book is chilling. is there a risk here we need to wait for war for china before 2034? >> the reason we set the book

about 15 years in the future tom is because that's when the trendlines really start to look difficult. we see chinese cyber capability goes up, their maritime capability goes up, the ability to employ stealth, the determination to hold onto the south china sea, it could be a collision, a miscalculation. 2034 is a cautionary tale. jonathan: on -- tom: on page 126, the couple sliding -- at the old abbott grill or the hay adams bar and then they came back later. this is outrageous. it's going to the fiction of someone having cocktails at the hotel. jonathan: this is the same approach you have with foreign relations as well. >> we were guinness at that

scene at the willard hotel which also is a great round-robin bar. jonathan: i'm sure you've shared a drink with tom at several of those bars. looking forward to how this evolves, there's been talk and i believe it came from the south china morning post in the last 24 hours at the could be a meeting of the top envoys between the u.s. and china potentially in alaska. what is the approach in the difference we saw with the previous and for -- administration? >> i think you will see them work from a script, they will create a strategy, military deterrence, diplomacy, economic tools, told -- cultural tools and above all work with our allies. that's the formula here. the trump administration was episodic and tactical. i think you will more strategic approach. this is the strategic challenge of this part. >> what do you think the

objective should be? >> a strategy ought to seek to confront where we must. we can't turn over the entire south china sea to china as territorial waters. they claim -- but we cooperate where we can. the environment, prepare for the next pandemic, work together on medical diplomacy in the developing world. confront where we must, cooperate where we can. let's avoid the 2030 for scenario. lisa: you're giving me permission to go with gloomy what-ifs. i'm wondering as you look towards with the risks are. what does a war look like in a post nuclear era? >> it will include cyber as a significant component particularly by the end of the decade as quantum computing collides with what we think of

traditionally think of computing. it opens many more capabilities. stealth will be better than it is now. space will be an important, own it. -- an important component. you will see good old-fashioned naval conflict here because for better or worse we will not get into a land war with china. it will be played out in the scenarios. lisa: do you think the united states is the intellectual capacity and the government jobs needed to be filled to repair themselves for a cyber attack as well as the investment on the private side towards resources? >> the key element is private public cooperation. the government cannot do this by itself. the first step would be to create a cyber force like our space force was created a year or so ago. secondly there has to be pretty

seamless cooperation across this enormous threat service we are facing. we have work to do and we will have to compete hard with silicon valley to bring that talent to bear on this problem. tom: the shocking immediacy of this book. your heritage of coming to san diego on a boat as a kid and also elliot ackerman's wonderful work. is our u.s. navy ready to do what is in 2034? >> yes and they are already at sea. the challenge will be numbers of ships. even now, china has more warships than the united states does. hours are more capable, we have this nuclear aircraft carriers. china is gaining airspeed in this regard. tom: this is so important.

we've lost hong kong, we can show the flag there anymore. where is our harbor as we face affairs out of the south china sea? >> we will be forward con from guam. it used to be pearl harbor. a second important piece of this is up in tokyo bay. that is our largest naval base in the pacific. that is where the seventh fleet is based. they will also operate out of bases in south korea. >> i want to finish up, you talked about the objective end it's important to understand where things are heading and whether we can slow them down or whether we can change the outcome. do you think the outcome is predetermined now? >> i do not.

although so often when there is an established power confronted by a rising power or an established power, the u.k. 100 years ago challenged by a rising germany. we can still avoid this, that's why we wrote the book to lay a cautionary tale, we need a strategy to do that. that includes all elements of u.s. national power and we need to understand china better. china knows us better than we know china. we have work to do. lisa: why a novel and why now? you did try to throw it, i just want to confirm it. tom: leonardo dicaprio is going to play lieutenant pharaoh. it's a no-brainer. >> in fiction we can allow

ourselves to imagine the future. if i had written a policy kind of book, this reaches a big audience. we want to let people know this is a real danger. tom: how is our defense secretary doing. >> he is off to a terrific start. by being steady and very concerned about people in the four sprayed he's an expert on the middle east. he will be spending time focusing on that. jonathan: i'm not sure if the president is listening or not. tom: the president does not listen. jonathan: good luck with the book release and we look forward to catching up with you soon. former nato supreme allied

commander. tom: i'm going to be optimistic here. this is 303 pages. this is two plane flights. you get on a plane, you read half, you get on another plane and you read the other half. lisa: did you actually throw the book? tom: my help picked it up. jonathan: it reappeared on the desk. how did that happen. tom: i've got an entourage of 22 people. jonathan: let's reset. later this afternoon, we get bond supply. then a 30 year tomorrow. that sets the tone for everything for the next several months. tom: can we do more on the auctions and what happened yesterday and today? we are really ignorant about. lisa: can we stop this and make sure we can freeze this saying.

we focus more on auctions. i am never going to let you forget that. jonathan: to make it simple, demand is decent. concern on the 10 year and thirty-year. we have had a huge backup in yields. this time around compared to two weeks ago, we will set the tone is what that cpi looks like at 8:30 eastern time. these are the kinds of things lead us off course. it is important. we have a game plan, we are going into -- this year, it is base effecting energy and then when the data starts to come through that way, how the conversation changes will be important. tom: i'm going to be the gdp growth estimates up. also adidas raises their organic revenue. jonathan: i'm not having that

debate. [laughter] jonathan: johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. tom talking and me talking over him for the next two hours. it's been that way for the last 10 years. the bond market up three basis points. this is bloomberg. >> with the first word news. the house is set to send that 1.9 trillion dollar covid relief package to president biden for his signature. the measure would provide an economic boost that would last long after the checks start arriving this month. house and democratic leaders expect final passage this morning. the measure include supplemental unemployment benefits and the expansion of the child tax credit. bion tech says it could have the capacity to make 3 billion doses

of coronavirus vaccine with its partner pfizer next year. that would make the shop five more widely available around the world -- more widely available around the world. the price of the world's largest digital currency fell after briefly climbing past $55,000. speculation where there -- whether bitcoin can hit the record it set last month. the price has been bolstered by growing talk of institutional interest. the cease-fire in that big trade war is working. china is the biggest customer for u.s. farm products. american farmers are exporting record amounts of crops and meet to the chinese. a number of wall street a list fled to florida during the pandemic. many are eyeing a return. it indicates relatively few new

yorkers moved -- will move permanently to miami or long beach. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we could further increase our manufacturing capacity.

i don't see an indication why we should not be able to produce that in 2022. it pens on the demand -- it depends on the demand, whether additional boost vaccinations are required. jonathan: bion tech's ceo. unthinkable 12 months ago we could get a vaccine this quickly. i'm jonathan ferro. your market looks like this. not a big move, down a little bit as yields climb. up about three basis points. how much supply on tens? 38 billion this afternoon. in the fx market, just a bit of dollar strength against the euro. tom: interesting data. i'm focused on those auctions

and how we open at 9:30. looking at the open to us find out -- to find out how we sit. mr. bloomberg, the founder of this shop and this radio and television property as well. joshua, i want to go to "the plague." in part five all of a sudden things get better. he talks about the enemy abandoning positions. what is our behavior at the end of a pandemic? >> in that book people want to forget about the plague as quick as possible. just go back to life as much as they can even though they have had this experience and a really important question is whether you do that and not learn the lessons of this pandemic. right now we are seeing the

virus on the retreat, which is fantastic. we have a lot of people to get vaccinated, we have to push the virus so far down that when it tries to come back maybe in the fall in a bigger way we are ready for it. tom: the news of alaska is simply joyous. do you look at alaska as an outlier because of its geography and its dispersion a population or can you transpose alaska over the 48 states? joshua: i don't think it's exactly analogous. but contact to make vaccines available to everyone and be able to start to do things again , that is already rolling out in different places at different speeds. it will be here for all of us if we keep with this program and are able to avoid an unfortunate

surge at the end of the virus. lisa: there's a question about how dangerous this virus is to younger individuals, people who get it and don't have a lot of symptoms. now there is emerging research about long-lasting implications, long-lasting health effects. can you talk about what we have found and what the broader ramifications from that could be? joshua: some people get it difficult syndrome that has lasted for a while, many people report a brain fog or fatigue, trouble sleeping. it's a percentage of people, but they don't necessarily have to have had a very severe case. that population of patients needs a lot of research and support and hopefully will find treatment to help them. everyone should take this seriously and is important for people to get vaccinated. i think it will be much better to get vaccinated then to be facing that uncertainty.

lisa: this idea people feel like if i'm young and i don't have a problem otherwise to my immune system just let me get it and move on with my life. we are seeing data coming out showing it could be more significant. you think the messaging around the severity of this virus has been insufficient so far to really give people a sense of why they ought to be cautious and remain cautious? joshua: young people tend to think of themselves as immortal, so it's a hard messaging challenge. i think people dream about winning the lottery. in this case, young people have to be worried about losing the lottery. even though everything might say on average they are not likely to get very sick, they could actually get sick and they could wind up with this long syndrome. it's important for themselves and for the people they might

give the virus to who may not be vaccinated who they are in touch with. i hope they will see the value of all the things they want to do being easier if vaccinated. jonathan: we saw texas in the last couple of weeks reopening. wyoming dropping the mask mandate recently. maryland reopening but keeping the mandate. instead of just waiting a month or two months, what is the risk? joshua: the risk is there are variants out there that are more infectious than the coronavirus we dealt with the last year and that those really spread around among people on vaccinated. there is some evidence they may be more lethal. it's a risk a lot of people could get sick and die. how big is that risk? there are a lot of opinions about that there's no question

we minimize that risk if we just take it a little bit slow. sort of the stampede to go back to everything we were doing in 2019 is hasty and could backfire and may one step at a time is a better way to think about it. jonathan: appreciate your time as always. tom keene, general electric is leasing its business with aercap holdings. a deal poised to reshape this market. i believe they get a nice big chunk of cash. tom: this is callbacks of danner and his restructure of ge. buried in the wonderful bloomberg article on this transaction is a simple idea it will face government scrutiny. this goes back to one of the great series of one of our wonderful guests, catherine mann

of citigroup. in slowdown and restructuring you end up trading and moving the monopoly like positions. this screams that kind of transaction. lisa: it raises the question of how much more will we get monopoly like transactions in areas hard-hit by the pandemic? the idea they will say we need to survive and create monopolistic types of entities. jonathan: especially for the big companies. if they want a dance partner, where do they find them? companies restricted from finding a dance partner. lisa: the fact there won't be that much push in a time when these companies can say we are struggling. tom: i question that with the new biden administration and the tone we are seeing and the kind of people they are bringing on. i really wonder how the pushback will go. jonathan: lisa raised that point yesterday. tom: i didn't.

jonathan: tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. s&p down about three points. from new york city, good morning braid cpi data 90 minutes away. ♪

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♪ >> the $1.9 trillion u.s. stimulus, we think that will lift global gdp growth. >> we are about to have to $2 trillion stimulus, so the propensity for consumers to spend is very high. > there's going to be a burst coming in the next month, and then it is going to calm back down again. >> when they start to sniff out inflation, they are going to wait. >> policy at some point inevitably is going to shift. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: there is a monster plan in washington. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the price tag, $1.9 trillion. it goes to the house later. tom: