>> this is a plaza on what should be a broader cycle. >> inflation is going to be a burst in the 12 months and then it will calm down again. >> fed policy inevitably at some point is going to shift. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: the nest egg is flying. -- the nasdaq is flying. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." s&p 500 futures up .8%. the nasdaq up two percentage points. tom: adjustment to the discrete features. as we go to claims here at 8:30, very fluid. jon, madame lagarde must look to denmark in the shocking news on

astrazeneca. jonathan: the latest news out of denmark that the astrazeneca vaccine has been suspended on concerns around clotting. not for me to question the analysis. i am not qualified. but i am here to state the obvious, the consequences is pretty clear. it undermines the vaccine rollout once again across europe. tom: i go to francis collins who is an expert. their study of blood clots is simple. even in younger people. this is not about nursing homes or older people. it is the efficacy of the vaccine and it spans across ages. if you are in other countries, have to pay attention. jonathan: one more issue on a list of issues. lisa: unwarranted tightening. that is what people are looking for christine lagarde to say. are they going to push back on the rise in yields we have seen in the region?

to put in perspective, the german tenure now trading at -3.2%, is this to type? jonathan: in absolute terms, no. credibility is the biggest issue come this gets away from the europeans. unwarranted signing? the outlook for your is not justified higher interest rates yet. the vaccine rollout, the astrazeneca news is not good enough. the outlook for the u.s. justifies higher interest rates. tom: you have done the ecb ballet. what question would you ask madame lagarde this morning? jonathan: ok, if you don't like what you see, what are you doing about it? it is that simple. if you do not like the market, the backup in yields -- tom: are you talking fiscal policy? jonathan: they want that to happen but the next is how they cap interest rates and yields. tom: is there any evidence i can

do that? jonathan: yield curve control. there is evidence. 12 months to the day i must when christine lagarde said -- almost when christine lagarde said they're not closing spreads. what did they do ultimately? they closed spreads. another issue the president has, something mario draghi managed to navigate block the whole governing council into a corner. paid the mentor corner inside this is what we're going to do, are coming with me. present lagarde needs to do that more. tom: interesting to see the press conference. we will have coverage on radio and television. jonathan: good morning. we look like this on the s&p 500. we drift higher by 29 points on the s&p. you might find in the on market,

149.53. lisa will rhyme you through the bond supply. lisa: there is a question who is driving the bus when it comes to the yields. christine lagarde will bring us a bazooka rhetorically today at her meeting. 7:45 am would get the ecb rate decision. the key will be 8:30 when christine lagarde gets her press conference and talks about what measures that could take. to put this into perspective, since the start of the pandemic, central banks have injected nine dollars trillion of monetary stimulus into the economy. how much more can i play? probably quite a bit. how much of the bond markets can they own? quite a bit. that will be one key aspect

today as people look to that press conference. 8:30 a.m., u.s. jobless claims come out. how much do these matter this point? markets have not really been moving on these. however, if we get a big surprise when where another, it might make some cracks in this incredible run-up we have seen and expectations for the u.s. economy. at 1:00 p.m., the bond auction supply, we get $24 billion of 30 year notes from the u.s. treasury. yesterday's tenure option not great, not terrible. a gay people confidence it gave people confidence. how much of a conviction you have on inflation in the u.s.? jonathan: lisa, thank you. let sit on claims for a moment. 725,000 is the estimate 12 months into this mess. tom: let's go to first

principles to review for our audience. this is a thrilling number because it is a weekly number. normal in a bloomberg economy is 200, 220, 230 is a grim number. we blow out to where we were and we are back but we are back in trouble the level of normal stop that is not acceptable. jonathan: we still have to work through. that is why the fed once to stay on course and do nothing for a long, long time. daniel katzive joins us now. today it is about the ecb doing something. what do you think they can do? what do you think they need to do? daniel: we think they have to send a strong signal today that they are not going to tolerate financial decisions. i think in our view, they will signal their going use the purchase program more aggressively to contain the upside of the yields. time will tell how successful that is. tom: how critical is the

physical impulse for europe right now? if the example of president biden in the united states. today need to equate to that? daniel: it will be difficult for them to do, but there will be at least enough to avoid the systemic type pressures in europe. you're never going to get the dynamic surge in the physical impulse we will get here in the u.s. lisa: there sort of a conundrum for fx traders and currency traders, this idea is stimulus negative for currency or positive? your, for example -- europe, for example, strengthening. even though this means lower rates perhaps, less demand some of the regions assets. how do you view that trading strategy when it comes to understanding the value of current these? daniel cope -- daniel: the key thing is reflation right now.

it seems like with today's messaging, the ecb is coming out more aggressively than the fed in preserving reflation by being more aggressive on the higher yields we have seen. over time, the u.s. has the fiscal stimulus which supports reflationary expectations and key policy come accommodative through that period. fiscal stimulus and strong growth, keeping real yields negative. the long run, the dollar still has challenges. jonathan: do you think the treasury has challenges? a lot of people pointing to the ugly seven-year issue from a couple of weeks back. tenure was not great or terrible, just great. any reason to be concerned? daniel: it is a question of price, what the yield will be. the fed is providing a lot of support.

it is preventing a big backstop. the market is in financial condition start to tighten in the u.s., breakevens start to fall in the u.s., the fed can do a lot more to support the market. tom: reset the bnp paribas view on the pacific rim in china. the blended asia index of japan has had three good days off a really difficult 10, 12 days as well. what is your call on stronger pacific rim currencies in a recovery asia? daniel: it goes back to the dollar view. the dollar is still an expensive currency versus the euro, yen, a lot of the pacific rim currencies. we move into the second half of the year, we get the search in growth in the fed does not move toward further tightening -- towards tightening, you'll see that pressure on the dollar resume. in the short-term, there is upside risks for the dollar,

especially going into the fed meeting next week. the fed has maybe a bigger communications challenge than the ecb. jonathan: the forecast, the forecast on the forecast. there needs to be series revisions. daniel katzive, good to see you. to emphasize that, tom, looking forward for the federal reserve 4.2% to be -- gdp. what will that have come a five handle, six handle? morgan stanley seven handle? tom: they have to come in and responsible adults but certainly what is important is the reset by every house to a higher statistic. lisa: but is true, the fed has a bigger challenge than the ecb. the ecb's landscape is less nuanced in terms of the challenges to growth. the fed has to communicate both

the positive outlook and acknowledge the reality so they don't lose credibility while also explaining why they're going to hold pat and whether challenge is in terms of when they raise rates based on inflation or other measures. jonathan: what is the challenge to the credibility? lisa: if they do not indicate they recognize the faster growth prospects, they will be viewed as lacking credibility when it comes to their impulse of responding to higher inflationary trend that perhaps some people may be expecting. jonathan: there are two issues. you can challenge the fed's forecast without challenging the credibility. now that you can challenge the forecast by saying, ok, we think you reached your objective sooner than you do. challenging the reaction function is more credit availability -- credibility. lisa: the speech is also the economy is doing well, we are on a recovery. yes there are headwinds and not necessarily those inflationary impulses. are they recognizing the reality

or do they see no benefit doing so because they want to maintain easy policies? that is a credibility issue. jonathan: big meeting next week. tom: i'm staying out of it. you are going at it. lisa: we are discussing. jonathan: just a conversation at 6:11. lisa: it is too early. jonathan: i did not bring much energy to the table. futures up 30. lisa: i'm done. tom: can i the clubhouse? jonathan: i still don't understand it. tom: is it a dating site? jonathan: he is wearingadidaas to clubhouse. it is an audio thing. lisa, are clearly not up on it either. this is "bloomberg." ♪ >> within days, millions of americans will start receiving

the $1400 payments included in the pandemic relief bill. the house has given final approval to the package and president biden will sign it into law tomorrow. one point nightly and dollar legislation also extends supplemental unemployment benefits was that our health insurance subsidies and child tax credits. lawmakers in china have taken a big step toward limiting opposition in hong kong's political system. the national people's congress approved an extensive overhaul of how the city chooses its leaders. there will be a committee to ensure candidates in hong kong are "patriots." that will effectively and open e --nd open elections. spacex rocket was once today in florida. musk ice jeanette service that has more than 1100 satellites orbiting the earth. global news, 24 hours a day, on

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>> the economy is coming back. people are getting the vaccine. we're on the way out of this.

we are about to have a boom. and if we do, it will have absolutely nothing to do with this $1.9 trillion. >> a lot of stuff that begs the question, what were they thinking? they described as the most progressive legislation in a generation. it certainly has lived up to that billing. >> one thing my --biden administration has to focus on, what will it do to it? jonathan: backlash by the republicans on the $1.9 trillion. tom keene, this is the story, how the democrats salvage the plane and republicans pushback going into next year. tom: the american economy, huge belief it is going to be something. we will see a huge consumption. jonathan: look at the markets. the boom is coming and it currently has nothing to do with this land. any equity market, 30 points on

the s&p. up on the nasdaq. off the highs of the session so far. in the bond market, probably a headlight, 14971 on 10 year yield. the dollar is weaker. picking up things on monday with immense dollar strength. we can't you done to any ecb rate decision and about one hour and 25 minutes -- we count you down to an ecb rate decision in about an hour and 25 minutes. tom: i look at adxy, but a lot of other good indices, including csi in china. the vix is shaping up nicely. the president does a signing ceremony on the one point nightly in dollars. check, what -- jack, what

happens after the checks are cashed? what is the next oomph of this bill? what happens three months from now, six month from now? >> the immediate checks are a chunk of the bill but not the whole thing. the increased child tax credit is a significant part of this that takes it from $2000 to even $3600 for young children. that made make the democrats must excited. the money that goes to state and localities takes a while to move to the system and get into these economies. most of the bill has somewhat of a delayed effect and that is why you hear these republican criticisms that this is not just emergency spending for the coronavirus. much of the money that filters into the economy is going to do it later this year or even in the out years. lisa: is so important you are on

this show today. it has never been more intertwined. i was struck by a story this morning, republicans trapped inflation as a stick to beat biden stimulus. one of the most controversial aspects and a washington, d.c. can you talk about how different politicians are lining up on either side and the economist behind their views? >> it is been very partisan in washington. we have heard from republicans over and over again there is this risk of inflation from democrats. we have heard them pointing back to the post 2000 and recovery send we did not do enough then, we will not make that mistake now. it has gotten into a philosophical debate about what the legacy of this bill will be. there's a house member, republican from pennsylvania, is that a couple of days ago his biggest concern about this illness it will get credit for the economic recovery to talk

and play into he said mckinsey and popular debate in washington and push that worldview. inflation has been a very partisan talking point that has been the republican point the last few weeks at least. lisa: what is getting traction with the public? higher deficits? i reflation? -- higher inflation or pork? which will have the sticking power? >> none yet. according to every poll, this is still a very popular bill outside of washington. the pork issue may be more of an issue because they are about to start earmarks on this infrastructure bill coming up and not regular spending bill. there will be plenty republican talking points going forward. we will see republicans participate. the inflation talking point has not caught on and you see polls

showing a close to majority of republicans supporting the bill. at least in the popular conversations around the country, it is a battle that republicans have not one yet. jonathan: republicans can control the timing. the governors can reopen early and we have seen that in places like texas and elsewhere. do you expect to see more of that? >> there's no sign of change in terms of polarization of governors and of the country. maybe one difference is the governors -- at least many of the republican mayors -- did not want the money and at the bill including lawmakers saying it was not necessarily -- necessary for states and localities. that is the big difference. it can have a huge economic difference in terms of reopening. that is somewhere biden saying he will work with states has not really made a difference. he has not persuaded republican

governors to slow down or maintain mask mandates. somewhere he has not taken a harder stance and force their hand. tom: what is the process of committing infrastructure on capitol hill? is this such a foreign success that nobody really knows the process had the coming months? >> they have talked about it so much and started to work on it in recent years. it seems like they know what they're doing. tom: you think so? >> it is going to be politically difficult. there has been taught for years about the bipartisan upheaval of infrastructure but they've not really gotten into -- tom: you give mitch mcconnell a new arena in louisville or whatever, louisville cannot be duped but you give senator mcconnell something and the bill gets done. that is the way it works, right? >> that is sort of their goal. that is one of the reasons they

are starting this earmark process. that can't be done to the partisan reconciliation process, which means they do have to actually get bipartisan support. the question also is, how do you pay for it? do you include the democratic tax measures to raise taxes on corporations in it? that would obviously turn off republican support. that is for the process in congress makes it much more difficult than it seems. jonathan: jack fitzpatrick, great to catch up. what an issue on our hands right now. $1.9 trillion of it has passed congress and we'll get signed tomorrow by the president and the president believes that two presidents ago did not do enough to sell his plan coming out of the financial crisis. tom: it has been a nation of gridlock. gridlock is over. that's all it is. three days ago, all about that

historical election or elections in georgia. jonathan: good morning. equity futures railing of -- rallying up. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance" and here are the equity markets. the nasdaq up 1.8%. 10 year sub 150, offering support to growth equities. ecb, over the last month, 34 basis points on the 10 year justified by the outlook, inconsistent with what we see in europe. yield on the 10 year in italy up 10 basis points in the last month. no big deal but they worry. if things get better in america and treasury yields drift higher

and you get that effect in europe and yields go higher there without the corresponding pickup in the outlook, europe has a problem. europe has a bigger problem with the vaccine rollout, as you know it. we were talking about 1.25. tom: i looked at the regression at the beginning of the financial crisis. long-term weaker euro, yes, pop up recently but you wonder if it reverts back to some form of ever weaker euro, maybe not a big deal but there it is, this impulse over 10 years of a weaker euro. jonathan: one thing euro failed to do in the last cycle was recovery that led to higher rates. are they going to fail again? that is going to be out of christine lagarde's hands? tom: comes out of fiscal policy.

wonderful work this morning on europe and china but we focus on the european union with dr. shepherdson. ian, i look at what is going on. can europe get to a normal economy or is it ever strapped with malaise? ian: it has got big, deep structural problems which extends back to before the euro. the single currency has made things worse. we talk about the lack of coordination and aggression of fiscal policy compared to the u.s. and the u.k. these things won't be fixed by the end of the pandemic. europe will still be stuck with structural difficulties. tom: sterling today near 1.40. give us the shepherdson early take on what brexit means for

brussels. ian: it is a problem for the u.k. and the eu. it has made both parties worse off. pulling out of a long-standing trading relationship and going back to something more primitive leaves both sides worse off. this effect is sidelined in the eye of the public in the u.k. and the u.s. by the covid crisis. stepping back to the post-covid world, both parties are worse off. that will be a permanent hit. incredible confusion in the u.k. business sector of importing and exporting to and from europe and the counterparties in europe are seeing the same thing. trading activity largely now doesn't take place. it is a permanent loss. i would like to think in a

future time the u.k. will see sense and rejoin the euro zone. lisa: in the meantime, sticking with the idea that we are in a covid era, particularly in the eu, which has been slow to vaccinate, there is a question whether the ecb is bringing an eyedropper to a flood, trying to maneuver a bond market where the eu talks about delays to the vaccine rollout. the eu warning the government about the risk of further astrazeneca vaccine delays. how much does this affect your long-term outlook for the region s growth prospects and how is it changing in real time -- region's growth prospects and how is it changing in real time? ian: the longer you are in the covid hole, the longer term scarring on productivity growth.

what matters long-term is productivity growth. the longer the fiscal response is on the smaller side of where it should be, and the monetary response, and i would like the ecb to do more, then the deeper and more longer-lasting will be that scarring. europe is already in a structurally difficult spot but it runs the risk of making it worse. across the market, this is highlighted every day when we are looking at amazing vaccination numbers in the u.s. and u.k. and very aggressive fiscal response in those countries. the u.s. passing the 1.9 trillion dollar bill yesterday. europe is putting themselves in a position to fall further behind and today that structural hole even deeper, which is not to say that come summer, europe won't have a strong rebound. it will. businesses are keen to invest. at the margin, they are making things more difficult for

themselves in the future by not being more aggressive now. jonathan: if you had to make a call now, a cycle call, to engineer a recovery to lead to a higher policy rate? ian: not within the next 2, 3 years. the u.s. and u.k. will be raising rates years plural before the ecb can. jonathan: do you think it is largely out of their control? ian: they can always do more. they have an infinite armory to deploy. $1.85 trillion in total. i think they will use all of it. they could expand. i would like them to. i don't think they will. we're still looking at fiscal response which is inadequate compared to other countries. monetary and fiscal policy work together but you cannot swap more of one for less of the

other. the ecb, in theory can expand the balance sheet infinitely but it does not permeate into the real economy in the same way fiscal policy does. that is where the u.s. is being so much more aggressive. the u.s. is now being too aggressive. that is a question for another day. i would like to see the euro zone doing more. lisa: i am struck by you saying the european region will be years behind the u.s. when it comes to raising rates. how are people seeing the weaker dollar? i'm struggling to understand how the euro continues to strengthen versus the dollar. if the ecb keeps rates lower than the u.s. for a long time and growth remains below u.s. growth -- this isn't working together. ian: you hit the nail on the head. i very much expect a stronger dollar to emerge over the next year. it is off the lows we saw last

year. it can rally aggressively through the spring and summer. i'm convinced the u.s. will see a gigantic rebound, especially in consumption but also in business spending and hiring. the eurozone will be left in the dust for a time. the vaccination rollout is so slow and it will take longer to get rid of covid. you expect the dollar to be rallying harder. it will be relative to the euro in a years time, 10% higher. i don't buy the idea that the dollar can't rally aggressively against the euro. tom: the u.s. sees a gigantic rebound like newcastle, what is your gdp surprise? ian: to the upside. tom: come on. you sound like an economist. give me a number. we need a number on a thursday. ian: 6% this year, probably 5%

next year. it will close the outlook cap completely. tom: what is so important is the 24 month reach for of 6%. should jonathan: 3.5% unemployment next year. you just think they will meet their mandate quicker than they think they will? ian: i think they will end it will be a great thing to see inflation back above 2% but it will ultimately cause them to revise the forecast. it is not carved in stone. it is what they think based on current info. my guess is the incoming info in the next 6-12 months will be significantly stronger than they think on growth and inflation. jonathan: great to catch up,

and. -- ian. newcastle fan. lisa: had to slip that in. jonathan: at least we did not talk about it. we let it go. this is the story. it is not about the reaction function. it is just a belief among economists. the fed reaches objectives quicker than the fed thinks it will. tom: i think we forget the size and complexity of the american economy. lisa mentioned this. the parsing of the service sector versus goods producing. that service sector economy, although we know, it comes on and that number you are touting get two to 300,000, no one is modeling that. jonathan: i hope it is lower than that. we are talking about a boom. we have sensible, conservative economists talking about gdp

this year of 7%. tom: the new general outlook talks about an unprecedented boom in america. jonathan: how does this market react? how does policy adapt in the next several months when the data comes through? lisa: there's is a question about jay powell as a politician versus an economist. he has maneuvered politically. what is the upside for him to acknowledge the boom that economists on wall street keep talking about? if he talks about that, why isn't he giving a more flexible outlook to when they raise rates? jonathan: nasdaq up 1.8%. tom: critically, across the board, one day it is this, one date is that. it is a general lift in equities. right now, the nasdaq -- i'm sorry, the 4000 watch. jonathan: up by 27. 7/10 of 1% on the s&p 500.

down two basis points. we had to europe shortly. ecb rate decision just around the corner. the ecb has a vexing problem. up next, johns hopkins university nursing professor. this is bloomberg. ♪ reporter: president biden is preparing a nationwide victory lap to promote his relief plan. he will sign the measure into law. there will be a series of appearances across the nation to ensure voters no he and democrats are getting -- voters know he and democrats are getting the credit. it provides billions in aid to state and local governments. the u.s. and china disagree over how to describe a key meeting next week. the secretary of state and national security advisor will meet with their chinese

counterparts in alaska. the meeting is not a strategic dialogue or reference to regular talks that fell apart under donald trump. beijing says it is. both sides are under domestic pressure to avoid looking weak. the eu is urging the u.k. to come clean about its coronavirus vaccines. the prime minister denies that saying he opposes vaccine nationalism in all forms. it failed to bring more u.s. college students back to campus. that included a 60% decline in international students and a 9.5% drop at community colleges. warren buffett just joined one of the world's most exclusive clubs. he has become the sixth person to have a fortune of $100 billion.

almost all his wealth is in his company. shares are up 15% this year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake from bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if we have a surplus, we will share it with the rest of the world.

we have decided we're going to work with the outfit covax, we committed money to get more vaccines around the world. jonathan: doubling the order of johnson & johnson vaccines. from new york city, good morning. here's the price action this thursday morning. s&p rallying. the nasdaq up. yields lower. bid on the bond market. euro firmer going into that rate decision, one hour from now. tom: we are preparing for this euro show with our great team. information changes with the news flow. we change as well. the good news of america, dr. farley and the rest of us shocked by what we see out of

denmark and astrazeneca. what we see out of the eu on blood clots. dr. farley, wonderful research on hematology. give us a summary of the risk in america to the thrombosis, the embolism risk we see out of denmark. >> good morning. we have known covid causes a state of blood clots since the beginning of the epidemic. we have talked about many types of things including accidents inpatients or strokes in patients with covid-19. we have seen covid toe, little blood clots that block the blood flow to the vasculature. we know this causes a state of the body's response leading to blood clot formation.

this has caused significant disease in the elderly and those with comorbidities in the u.s. tom: i mentioned francis collins of nih earlier with the key phrase "even in younger people." what is the risk of these events to younger people if they get covid, which they heal from easily but nevertheless they have blood clot risk? >> certainly. anything that ups the body's response to infection, particularly inflammatory response, can trigger a declining cascade. we see a lower risk in younger individuals. that risk rises with age and underlying disease states. we have seen cases of blood clots in younger individuals. they remained relatively rare. jonathan: on the vaccine

rollout, europe has a problem on the continent. i don't need to give you an analysis. the consequences are clear. there is an issue with trust in vaccines. have you seen this bump up in america yet? >> sure. vaccine hesitancy or problems with vaccine acceptance has been a problem since the beginning of the pandemic. we have seen that muted however because of lack of vaccine supply. importantly, lines are long for vaccines. people cannot find one even when they qualify. importantly, we have seen this response of people not wanting the vaccine or hesitant to get it or a wait and see approach has been muted because of the supply issue. jonathan: when do we start to bump up against the acceptance

issue? when does that force us to get rid of the age caps on who can and can't have the vaccine and make it available to everyone? are we to that point? >> this has been a state-by-state response. quite frankly, many individuals are still in the wings waiting and hopeful to receive the vaccine. removing age restrictions i think needs to bump up against pushing into that 80+% of 65 and older and the u.s. is sitting around 60% in that category. we need to continue to focus on our age categories in the short run, probably into march, april, depending on the number of shots we get into arms but then to think about expansion of

categories and getting the next round of people. lisa: in the meantime, governors are taking matters into their own hands, state-by-state, reopening perhaps earlier than health officials recommend. what do you say to people who push back against officials assertions saying there has not been enough done to recognize the depression, suicide, violence you have seen breakout that has had medical impact that has stemmed from some of the shutdowns that continue ongoing? >> certainly. we are trained to think about the consequence of the disease, like the ones you are mentioning. the fallouts of the disease, if you will. i would add that the consequences of covid remain real. we are seeing lots of positive numbers with increased vaccination, increased herd immunity, estimates coming out this morning from the new york

times of 40% across the u.s. that is all good news. we are also seeing lots of mental health concerns. there is a balancing act. i would say, the cdc just came out with amazing data on a county by county level as of earlier this week demonstrating the earlier you repopulate restaurants, the more likely you are to see a greater number of cases research. -- re-surge. we have to get further herd immunity. not because we don't understand and recognize the consequences but most importantly we have to get rid of the variants. jonathan: good to see you, as always, dr. farley on the risk of reopening. right now, in germany, there has been a plan to gradually reopen. the cases are going the wrong way. the vaccinations are going in the wrong direction. tom: for our american audience,

i cannot convey this -- when you look at the data, whether johns hopkins, the ft or bloomberg, the disparity -- not all of europe but certain places, milan, germany -- it is just appalling. it has never been like this since last march. jonathan: the pace of vaccinations in europe is not picking up quickly enough to close the gap with what has happened in the u.k. or u.s. 6.7% in germany has had one shot. 3% fully vaccinated. america, 9.9% fully vaccinated, 18.8% have had at least one shot. that is a diversions spread between europe and the u.s. and at his be on the bond market and the economy. tom: president lagarde has to mention that. we have to see the number of vaccines that come out. america your organized.

jonathan: coming up, equity investments in europe. your nasdaq in the u.s. flying up 1.8% on the nasdaq 100. looking good. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> bound that's coming as we normalize -- there's a huge bounce that's coming as we normalize. >> the propensity to spend is very high. >> this is just a pause and what should be a broader dollar weakness. >> inflation is going to be a burst in the next 12 months, and then it is going to come back down again. >> fed policy inevitably is going to shift. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: an ecb rate decision 45 minutes away. good morning. "bloomberg surveillance "bloomberg surveillance this is, -- this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are flying on the nasdaq, up by 1.6%. up about 0.6% on the s&p 500. president lagarde a couple of hours away. tom: the ecb front and center, but