see a gigantic rebound. >> the market is finding its footing. there is no reason for the fed to do anything if things don't get worse. >> it is the number one question for investors. >> the fed can do a lot more. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and the cigarettes -- and lisa. jonathan: i am jonathan ferro, tom keene is away today. in the equity market, futures down. the nasdaq up 1.7. lisa: it is almost like a response. the nasdaq is underperforming other equities. it raises the question i would like to explore which is does this correlation between bonds and tech stocks make sense?

jonathan: that is a conversation he will have later today. the president is pushing forward with reopening plans, aiming for something close to normal and pushing states to allow everyone who once vaccine to get one by may 1. there are several things he can do and several things states will say yes and rings they will say no to. lisa: it reminded me of oprah. you get a shot, you get a shot. everybody gets a shot on may 1. there is a question about how much optimism people have and how you tempered that by saying stay home, wear your mask. people are done and if you go outside you get a sense the pandemic is over. jonathan: the governments are done too. that is the number you need to be looking at in the treasury market, yields are higher by six treasury -- six basis points.

the fx market, dollar strength is back. euro-dollar, becoming 6/10 of 1%. that is the move and equity market, down on the s&p. lisa: that is interesting, talking about the divergence between bonds in u.s. and europe and how they will fuel dollar strength. another aspect in this deflation , the u.s. price index data. we will see prices climbing, inflationary pressures, but not getting too extreme yet. this is the type of metric people are watching more closely now that jobs. inflation is going to guide so much of the conversation. i am interested in this because i have the following antitrust sentiment in this congress. the house due to sherry

committee is holding a hearing with red smith of microsoft -- with brad smith of microsoft. the question is how much -- will work with tech companies about how their work is distributed, the power tech has over information streams in this nation. how much can a rep up production in the face of higher oil prices? we will be getting data coming out. we have seen it fall off the cliff and then take up. -- and then tick up. how much does that turnaround specially as opec+ faces an unwillingness? jonathan: wasn't it nice you got to that whole thing without being interrupted? lisa: [laughter] i will enjoy it for now, but sometimes i enjoy it. jonathan: you can have that back on monday. tom keene is off for a long weekend.

wti at about 66. your daily average of technicians in america, to .3 million doses -- 2.3 million doses per day. it is getting better and better. lisa: the question is how long-lasting will it be? inflationary pressures are on the same trend we have experienced for a long time. is this different, though? jonathan: 1.6% is your yields in the treasury. have we finally started to move the forecast that we capitulated? let's bring in jay bryson, wells fargo chief economist. jay: it seems like everyone has been falling over themselves to upgrade their forecast. we had a huge rally in equities. i think things will take a

breather. we will have to digest the incoming data to see it is as good as we think it will be. jonathan: what is your number? what do you think it is going to be? jay: in terms of gdp? i am looking for over 6% this year and next year we are looking for over five sent -- over 5%. if those numbers are correct, that would be the strongest two period -- two year period of growth in it while. the number has been drifting up. lisa: what about inflation? jay: inflation this year -- it is a low bar from last year. last year we saw prices collapsed in march and april. this year we are looking for a rate of 2.7%. a one-off price increase for a

year is not necessarily inflation. it does not mean we are sitting at the 1976 about -- sitting at 1976 about to experience inflationary high. we have a labor market that is relatively weak, we have millions of people sitting out right now i expected to come back into the vapor if things reopen. we think that will keep a lid on inflation. 2.7% this year but only 2.2% next year. jonathan: it is unbelievable when we have conversations. you think past experience has anchored this conversation around 2% and anything north of 3% is bad? in the u.k., we saw north of 3%. why are we having this conversation about a return to

the 70's when you are talking about a push to 3%? jay: if you go to 3% or 4% or 5%, the fed has to step on the rakes. -- on the brakes. i think jay powell would say 3% is nothing. if they will make a mistake, they will over stimulate the economy and maybe that leads to higher inflation but they know how to take care of it. lisa: there is a question about what is transitory and what is longer-lasting and how good we are at determining that. the fed will say we can work through this because it is transitory. what are the signs that the inflationary push are not transitory? jay: i would look for an acceleration in wages. services account for two thirds of the economy. the biggest cost on service is wages.

you will start to decent -- you will start to get some cost inflation. if you look at the 70's -- the 1970's, people had wages indexed to inflation. we don't have that now. you had prices going up which pushed up wages. today you don't see that thing. we have to keep an eye on wage inflation. jonathan: let's go to march 17, everyone will be looking at those forecast. we will anticipate upward revisions for 2021 and 2022. you expect a corresponding -- lisa: we will see -- jay: we will see. i think we have five members who are at this rate hike. i would not expect a lot able to jump on board with that. i think maybe one or two. i think the median will stay

flat in 2023. i think there will be upward movement in the off-line. we don't see a majority taking risks in 2023. lisa: a member of morgan stanley was talking about what happens if inflation pushes above what the fed is comfortable with. they expected to raise to 2%, but what happens if it goes above that? how much guidance to be get from the fed about when they will pay attention and take action? jay: the first thing he would look for would be more and more members expressing concern. the first thing they would do is grant down their qe purchases. maybe you see it in the dot plot. you see those starting to drift up. i think the fed will be very

communicative. they may not get it right the first time but they may learn weekly -- learn quickly. i would expect them starting to back off on the excess accommodations we have. jonathan: always good to see you. great to catch up. continue down to a decision with the fed next week. if they achieve their goals early, good news. i don't think moving the dot plot up in a corresponding fashion to what you have forecasted to be their best, i think that is consistent. if you hit your goals earlier, then you should tighten earlier. this is what hawkish would be. if they upgraded their forecast and the dot plot came up, i would say something has changed at the fed. if you upgrade your forecast and you think you will hit them earlier and you bring the dots forward, too, okay. lisa: bank of america's employee

said they have to communicate early their plans for tightening without tightening the market prematurely and restricting funding to economies that could fund the recovery. they will give the market something to look forward to, yet that will change the trajectory. this is a sticky points the fed is in which is unprecedented. jonathan: that is always the battle. that is bigger this time around. i'm jonathan ferro, tom keene is back on monday. coming up, anna han, economic strategist. how many times have you seen this? yields are up. the equity markets rolling over. the s&p 500 down by 5/10 of 1%,

nasdaq 100 futures up to 12 and getting hammered. -- up to 212 and getting hammered. crude is south of $66. this is bloomberg -- "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: president biden marks the one-year anniversary of the start of the pandemic by giving americans a glint -- a clips of hope. -- a glimpse of hope. he drifted all states to make all adults eligible for a vaccine by may 1. janet yellen says americans will start receiving stimulus payments in their bank accounts this weekend after president biden signed the stimulus package into law. the u.s. economy has started showing signs of recovery. janet yellen does not think the

relief till is too big -- really will is too big -- relief bill is too big. beijing says the u.s. cannot be trusted. a move riveted items with 5g devices. in hong kong, a concern about the spread of coronavirus is a concern. the outbreak would lead to a jim -- a gym and comes from ex-pats work with global financial institutions. general electric's ceo waved most of his salary and bonus last year. he still ended up with $73.2 million.

it guides the conglomerate to set -- over the next two years. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: i set a goal that

many of you said was over the top. i said i would give a shot into 100 million person's arms my first 100 days. we are going to beat that goal. jonathan: president joe biden there. i remember sitting here and saying here the goal was not big enough. i am not sure how many people were saying it was too small. the vaccine rate was something like approaching a million. now it is up to 2 million. when he went into the white house, we were saying we are already near one million a day. lisa: people are looking at when they can get back to real life. he was basically saying tentatively by july 4 you can get together in a small group if we get vaccination up. jonathan: july 4 you can meet in

small groups, may 1 he has urged states to open up, eligibility for -- open up eligibility for all adults. you have seen reopening plans in places like texas. state to state there are different guidelines on who is eligible for a vaccine and who is not. lisa: small groups -- if you look outside at what people are actually doing, i saw few masks yesterday. people are saying it is basically over, we have 40% herd immunity. jonathan: it is one of those situations, people write it down, it is in the newspaper. we could meet on july 4. i don't know many people who were waiting for the president to tell you you can meet on july 4. we are coming in 20 points, down 5/10 of 1%. we are down around 210.

yields are up. dollar strength in the next, euro-dollar at 119. the breakout is here again. lisa: it goes to fundamentals, the idea that joe biden is saying we could be done with the pandemic by late summer. that is a big deal. janet yellen said checks will be in the mail this weekend. we have to understand the impulse of that, what it means in terms of growth and spending and why not invest in stocks if everyone boko with their money -- if everyone will have their money. jonathan: let's talk with emily wilkins. emily, let's talk about the president's address. who is in control here? emily: the federal government

has been talking with vaccine companies and pharmaceuticals about making sure we can get vaccines out, that the u.s. will have enough vaccines for all adults. to a certain extent, the shots in arms but happens on the state and local level. president biden can only do so much in encouraging americans. it is more the local officials that say what size groups people are allowed to gather in. lisa: -- jonathan: was this the president trying to regain control of the narrative? emily: president biden is the president of the u.s. and the u.s. is still in the pandemic. this is was a way for president biden to kick off what will be a victory lap for him, his advisors, vice president kamala harris celebrating this tremulous bill -- this stimulus

bill. also, building support for the next big bill the administration has their eye on, the infrastructure package which is in early negotiations. we are not expecting to see a bill for a couple more weeks. biden wants to start getting support and talking to americans about what he would like to do. lisa: i want to ask a self-serving question. when joe biden says every american should be eligible by may 1, does that mean there will be enough vaccine? there will be a distribution? he will instruct states to open up guidelines? emily: we have heard that targeting may as when the u.s. will have enough vaccines for every adult to get one. you are right to point out the wording. you need to register, you need

to get in line, there needs to be enough spots, things need to go wrong. he did not say everyone is going to be vaccinated on may 1, just that there will be enough shots and people will be able to be in lines. there wont be a restriction like if you are under 65 or if you don't have a respiratory illness. everyone will be eligible, that does not mean everyone is vaccinated. lisa: i would love to get your sense of the situation with andrew cuomo given the fact the governor is bringing -- is being brought up on impeachment charges. could you deliberate how big of a story this is in washington, d.c. and what is the timeline? emily: it is a story officials in d.c. are paying attention to. they have gotten plenty of questions on governor cuomo. this is part of a larger narrative about how the country

has responded to the vaccine, what has and has not worked out, how honest people have been. it also hits on the me too threat. -- thread. how do we hold people accountable to what they have done? president trump admitted to sexual harassment while he was a candidate. but you have seen a former senator in this position as well. i think it is part of a larger story about what the consequences are for politicians when these allegations come force. jonathan: -- when these allegations come forth. jonathan: and policy effects as well. lisa: you have to wonder how much these governors, particularly cuomo, who is

inclined to cater to popular opinion now. it is not just him. throughout the pandemic, how much governors were forced to put in charge in the case of unrest in the community. jonathan: the numbers across america looked great, 10.2% fully vaccinated, nine point 3% have at least one shot. -- 9.3% have at least one shot. 2.3 million people getting a shot every day in america. lisa: have you gotten the shot yet? jonathan: no. lisa: the line was too long. jonathan: how long were you trying that for? lisa: i don't want to talk about it. jonathan: lisa with us all

morning, i am jonathan ferro. tom keene is back on monday. coming up, tom kinmonth from abn amro bank. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ you can go your own way ♪

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jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." it was looking good for the nasdaq and then this morning happened. we are down on nasdaq 100 futures. about three percentage points this week, a little bit of stability in the bond market. 30 year supply went all right. this happened this morning. to the bond market, back through 160. had a look at 161. you know what this means? yields are up. that is the story. when does this correlation start to break down again? the answer to that is not an easy one, not yet. yields are higher, what will

happen to the u.s. dollar? if the europeans cannot get their act together, what will happen to the u.s. dollar? euro-dollar will grind lower, down 6/10 of 1%. we know a man who does not want to fight this one. lisa: if you look at the consensus call heading into 2021, it was weaker dollar. that has turned on its head in the short-term. i wonder how long that will last. someone was talking about how he does not want to fight dollar strength. tom kinmonth -- can is joining us this morning with his breakfast. what are you eating? >> a traditional english breakfast. [laughter] lisa: how much longer can he fight the dollar and how long

will it keep growing? >> yields will end up in a low place. we have a high correlation. as yields rise, the dollar goes with it, equities wobble. the markets struggle. the correlations just kick in repeatedly. the problem is that even where we are now, if i glanced at the treasury curve prices, 2.4% for one month in five years time. that would not constitute neutral fed policy than. -- then. in 2013, we traded in what we then thought was a normal policy cycle really fast. that is what did the damage. i want us to price in a return

to neutral policy five years down the road. when we have done that, we can say can we forget about the bond market for a little bit? jonathan: on monday, 2% on a 10 year and get it done with? kit: i guess what i am saying is we are going there. there is so much momentum in the u.s. economy. the consensus is rampant. our guys put out a piece on how bullish they are and then the oecd comes out with higher numbers. jonathan: morgan stanley came out with one and then they of rated the forecast. this is a line in your note today. "the sooner we get to 2% of the better so people can realize paying 2% is likely to average

twice that over the next decade." can we talk about twice that over the next decade -- is that what you are looking for? kit: 4% nominal growth would not be too extraordinary. there's nothing extraordinary about that. as a benchmark, i don't think that is a bad mark for where we could be. my point is, we are making a quick adjustment. it is brutal because of where we start. we are not going to end with what we considered as high financial conditions. jonathan: good to see you. kit juckes. lisa, is not that a breath of fresh air? lisa: it is more comfortable territory, to be honest. there is a question in this dollar call about the divergence between the euro region and the u.s. and the idea of how much can this divergence occurs given

where bonds are and the ecb involvement? jonathan: there are a few ways of looking at this. either you think the german bond market enters the world what you think treasury yields will drive the global bond market. or they are diverging. i mentioned that yesterday. 280 with the bund treasury. there is oxygen up there. that spread wants to go higher. lisa: it is the highest level since early last year. there is a question about how much higher. there is a question about how much the european bond market prevents people from going into the u.s. bond market and suppressing yields. jonathan: let's get to tom kinmonth. let's start something -- let's start with something kitt said. 2% inflation, does that sound too pretty? too much like a nursery rhyme?

tom: the most interesting thing the divergence in what is good financial conditions. the five-year right now is around zero sent in greece. that shows the real differentiation. in europe, we are very dovish. we did not have the ability to lower interest rates. we have a lot of non-interest rate products rewind -- products to rewind. that all still has to be done. structural ability in europe is nothing like the u.s. it is interesting to hear christine lagarde talking about financial conditions need to be better in the euro zone. it is really -- lisa: was the ecb successful yesterday?

there our questions on it actually eases monetary policy. tom: you have the government-funded conditions. the ecb lowered cost of tunes -- of bunds. that will keep pressure down. we are keeping it lower, we don't want to overheat the economy. there needs to be a period where it does overheat above 2%. we are still below the inflation target. we still have a lot of things to unwind. we are going to continue to see a lot of yields being lower. that spills over to everything, the credit world and these spreads and yields are going very low on that side. that will be the narrative for the next few years. lisa: do you think there will be a boom in europe in the way there is expected to be in the

u.s. once we get the vaccination schedule rolled out? tom: there will be, it is the timing. we will have a huge physical boost in europe. the other issue is that it will only be a temporary period. you have a long period where the government has spent a percentage of gdp just to get out of this crisis. the u.k. will increase taxes. the eurozone will be less likely to do that. we have economic damage in the midterm. before the covid crisis were not good dynamics for inflationary rushers -- inflationary pressures. there will be less trajectory on that side. there will be a boost, probably not as long in the u.s. and it will be to very in the euro zone. then we have to look at the huge debt tolls that have to be handled going forward.

high-yield, credit -- that is our area at the moment. we believe we will not get steeper curves. credit is around 90% of the fixed income world. all fixed income is being forced into credit because the government bond market has no yield. they are not able to give any money back. they have been enforcing the other markets. this is what the ecb wants. it once the reduction of risk. jonathan: the pressure is on. the story of yesteryear, the story of bad loans, european banks struggling, is that yesterday's news. tom: at the moment it is off the radar put in the next 18 months we will get a big pickup in apl. at the national level, there was

a demand to have the euro zone level -- they have said we wanted at a national level. there will be management companies set up to support the npo issue. banks are structurally unprofitable at the moment. that will decrease the ability they have two keep financial conditions favorable in the euro zone. jonathan: tom, great to see you. tom kinmonth there. the equity side, 19% of financials in europe. up 19%. lisa: a lot of that has been the yield curve steepening. you wonder if the ecb try to engage in yield curve control, if the author comes off of that. there are -- the expectations

are less rosy than the u.s.. jonathan: the ecb thanks that the yield moves we have seen are inconsistent with their outlook of their economy. the moves in the financials is consistent with the moves we have seen in the u.s. even though those banks operate in different places. lisa: their message is nuanced, they are saying they will frontload purchases but not necessarily expand how many purchases they will do over the long-term. they expect near-term they need more support, long-term they are expecting a boom. tom really laid it out, are the prospects different than they were two years ago when europe was facing a rough time? jonathan: did you get the message from the conference yesterday? here's the comment from a good friend of the project and a good -- and an ecb chair. as soon as lagarde started to discuss -- confusion returns.

i was confused through much of the whole thing. lisa: what do you think of her as an ecb president? jonathan: i think it was a confusing news conference. i jonathan ferro alongside lisa abramowicz. coming up, jennifer nuzzo on the vaccination pace in america building. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden offers americans a claims of hope that life will begin to return to normal this summer in his first primetime speech since inauguration. he directed the u.s. to make all adults eligible for vaccination by may 1. he said his administration would beat the goal of 100 million shot in his first 100 days. european drug regulators are

still backing the astrazeneca vaccine. denmark joint norway and other countries in suspending use of some or all of their shots. blood cox are going on. the european medicine agency says there is no indication the vaccine causes the clots. the u.k. is saying border checks could come for people coming in from the european union. they have to deal with eu custom controls. business leaders say that gives eu firms the advantage. governor andrew, faces an impeachment inquiry led by lawmakers from his own democratic party. there were new allegations of sexual harassment. it is split among them that's. -- among democrats. some want to start it regardless if governor cuomo steps down.

others say they should wait for the results of the attorney general's investigation. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> vaccine hesitancy or problems with vaccine acceptance has been

a problem since the beginning of the pandemic. we are seeing that muted because of lack of vaccine supply. lines are really long for covid-19 vaccine and people cannot find a vaccine even when the five. jonathan: that is set to change quickly. that was a johns hopkins university nursing professor. 2.3 million vaccines per day on average over the last seven days in the u.s.. . from new york, i am jonathan ferro along side lisa abramowicz. 1.66% lower, the nasdaq. yields are up by seven basis whites. that is the story right now, yields are up, equities are lower. they said you have asked the question about the future of this market, wind is that

correlation break down again because it has not always been this way? lisa: big tech has been affected the most in the pandemic so prices are that much higher. interest rate sensitivity goes up. if this yields go up, it looks attractive ash less attractive. -- looks less attractive. the question is if the secular factor of big tech overwhelms the market. jonathan: when growth is scarce, both is expensive. growth will not be scarce over the next 12 months. we are people talking about 6% or 7% gdp growth. lisa: what is after that? if you think as -- if you think of stocks as a discounting mechanism, we have discounted credible growth. jonathan: who wins the cycle and who wins the recovery? those questions can be different.

some are answering that question in a different way. morgan stanley is trying to answer that question. let's turn to this pandemic. two point 3 million vaccines per day in america right now. the president is saying we can open up eligibility for everyone may 1. let's get an answer from a professional. dr. jennifer nuzzo joins us now. based on the trajectory we are on right now, is that likely? jennifer: what the president is saying is by may 1 we will have enough supply for everyone who wishes to receive it and all the adults who wish to receive it. can we distribute it? we are making good progress in expanding the number of vaccinations per day. the goal was to vaccinate one million per day originally, then it was 1.5.

many think we are on track to hit 3 million per day. what the next bottleneck will be is how quickly we can get that supply into the arms of everyone who once it. jonathan: there was a worry about acceptance. do you think we have done -- we have pumped up against acceptance -- bumped up against acceptance? jennifer: yes, hesitancy is probably muted because demand is outweighing supply. but the people who want to the vaccine right now don't represent everybody. there are pockets of america who may not be so interested to get the vaccine. it is important that everyone who gets the vaccine shares their experience so everyone sees that it is fine. lisa: july 4, small groups getting together. that is what joe biden is saying in terms of what he expect the

reopening to look like. what happens if we get parties which is what people are expecting to happen? it is only encouraged by the idea that we have some critical mass vaccinated by july 4. jennifer: it is dependent on that. if you are vaccinated, it is different for you because you have some protection. we hope vaccines reduce transmission. if anybody has not got to the vaccine, we hope we will see fewer cases. it is best if all the partygoers have received their vaccine. lisa: i called dr. -- i don't want to be called misses gloom or, but what is the case if people get out there prematurely? have we seen the worst case scenario already dissipate? jennifer: no, i am hopeful we are on a good path but there are a few worrying signs.

testing has fallen. people -- fewer people are getting infected so there are fewer people needing testing. but we know that states have had to pivot attention and scale back testing they are offering. that makes me worried because i want to make sure everyone infected gets died coast so they can stay home and not transmit to others. i don't want us to get blindsided in the coming months. the potential of that is increasing now that we see states relaxing restrictions. especially mask requirements, those are still needed. i asked everyone to continue to wear a mask in public. jonathan: i remember buying a mask 12 months ago and feeling guilty about wearing a mask. there was a stigma for a while because it felt we were taking it from health care professionals.

then the narrative changed quickly. is there a risk of doing the same with a vaccine? some people are feeling healthy about getting in front of this ash feeling guilty -- some people are feeling guilty about getting in front of this and getting vaccinated because they are not six or 70. -- because they are not 60 or 70. jennifer: it is a benefit to all of us who can get it. we are vaccinating people who are at the highest risk of becoming severely ill. we will switch to people who are more likely to transmit it. as soon your time comes, get it. jonathan: always great to catch up. dr. for jennifer nuzzo there -- dr. jennifer nuzzo there. the messaging is so important from here on out. norway, denmark, bulk area raising questions about the

astrazeneca vaccine -- denmark, area -- bulgaria raising questions about the astrazeneca vaccine. it raises doubts. lisa: health officials are walking this tightrope trying to make sure we can grow -- we can reopen as soon as possible but there are medical questions they have to be transparent about. hopefully getting the vaccine reduces transmission. don't we know that yet? we don't have the data because this is the fastest moving thing we have had. jonathan: is it driven by policy or driven by science? that is a debate i have in my head when i see policy changes. if you have seen -- if you have been vaccinated and it is july 4 and you get with people who have been vaccinated, are you waiting for the president to tell you can have a small group? what is a small group?

i think you will push the government away again when they tell you what you can and cannot do. from new york on the good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." the bond market is much higher. ♪

♪ >> the biggest stimulus for all of us is that we can get out of covid. >> i am pretty convinced the u.s. is going to see a gigantic rebound, especially in consumption. >> if things don't get worse, there's no reason for the fed to do anything. >> it's not clear whether rising rates are good or bad for the market. >> the market knows that if financial conditions start to tighten in the u.s., the fed can do a lot more. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. -- alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene will be back on monday. your yield on the u.s. 10 year up 10 basis points to 1.61%.