>> the biggest stimulus for all of us to get out of covid, people will be looking forward to spending their money. >> the checks will be going toward people -- they will spend that money quickly. >> it is not clear if the rising rates are good or bad for the market. >> we still have a labor market that is relatively weak, millions of people who are sitting out right up. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," it a jonathan ferro, tom keene and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. the s&p 500, all-time highs.

tom: we will drive the conversation forward with our gas. you see the fervor right now, this march versus 12 months ago. tesla this morning, jon ferro, he is the techno-king of surveillance, as elon musk changes titles around. it is an effervescence. it is out there, everywhere. jonathan: what is the techno-king? tom: it is you on the dance floor. lisa: pictures. jonathan: move it on. [laughter] jonathan: trying to make this as awkward as you possibly can. tom: radio and tv worldwide, it is a 7% american economy. jonathan: maybe 8%, maybe unemployment down toward 4% at year end. these are numbers the fed did not see coming.

most people are lining up to send those forecasts we got back in december, so stale. lisa: market participants think the fed will not project rate hikes for the beginning of 2023, yet they still believe they will ultimately do that. they believe the fed will not indicate rate hikes while still believing we will get there. it shows a real tight rope that the fed is watching. jonathan: let's start the show again. from new york city, good morning, good morning. the s&p 500, record highs coming into monday. up 8%, we advanced .2%. someone i really respect and a fixed income market, the lows are 1.53, the highs are 1.64. that is on a day were not much

happened. lisa: it has been a consistent theme. a question about the internal dynamics of the treasury market. they reduced holdings ahead of an expiration of a key regulatory exemption. taking a look at the data, 8:30 a.m., empire manufacturing data. the first read on march manufacturing expected to be incredibly robust. how much will some of the logjams we have seen in the supply chain be represented? president biden will discuss the stimulus, trying to lobby the american people to support it to get his infrastructure plan passed. many people will be looking at in terms of what he details with tax hikes. he is expected to outline the biggest tax increase in the u.s. since 1993. how much is this priced into stocks?

at 4:00 p.m., we will get data on international flows into the u.s. to buy treasuries print how much international interest is there? how much is the buying of treasuries and a time of rising inflation? tom: i am glad you bring this up. this is a huge issue. are foreigners going to show up and by our paper? the answer is yes, yes, yes. anyone worried about that has always been wrong. jonathan: they will continue to do so. if you look at the data from the recent auctions, they still are. one of the difficult moments we had 12 months ago was getting the economy call right and the market call right, as well. let's get the economy call right. coming into this year, you will get the boom in the next couple of months. the banks up 25% on the s&p 500.

in europe, doubts emerge. every passing week, more and more doubts, yet european banks are up 20% year to date. let's start with a market call of european banks that have performed so well. i can see you laughing and i know white. why is it working out? robert: markets are forward-looking mechanisms. europe is getting better. they handle the lockdowns better. they handled them much better than one year ago. the industrial side of europe is much more robust. the pmi's are near record highs in europe -- the manufacturing pmi's. the gap between the manufacturing and service pmi are worrisome. they have not done a good job with the vaccine rollout. i believe we are at the widest

peak between manufacturing -- between u.s. and europe as far as expectations. the markets are sensing that a little bit. maybe the u.s. has run a little bit too fast so we are looking for more opportunities, more value. it is unfolding. the last point is that earnings in europe have been fantastic. the best in a decade last quarter, according to morgan stanley. this is the part that does not get talked about -- earnings are strong in europe on a relative basis and the banks are among the cheapest opportunity sets out there. people are looking at what is left to buy. i think it continues. they are still cheap as dirt, relative to the u.s. and other banks.

jonathan: you think this could be a long-term call, european banks and the equity market? jay: that is absolutely correct. i believe we are the beginning of the great rotation, allocations, secular bull market in equities, bear market in bonds. it is what we will see going forward for months, quarters and probably years. the u.s. is leading leader -- the u.s. is losing leadership. that will be a relative underperformer, as it has been. this will continue for a long time. we are in the first or second inning. tom: jay, you have been doing this for a long time. i want to go back to the morgan stanley days and the cycles we saw there. the clear issue is, how do corporations respond?

when they see a boom or an up, do they invest and go, or do they wait, wait, wait because they are worried about what is in 2023? jay: i think companies will go, i really do believe we are in an age of innovation and disruption. i wrote a piece a couple weeks ago, i believe covid has cracked this. we have seen the model. intellectual and financial capital on a global basis focused on vaccines led to multiple effective vaccines in 1/10 the historical time. it is being shifted to climate, cyber, the next this of fintech, traditional banking and crypto. there is tons of money out there, this is the ipo thing, i think it is a good thing.

it is allowing public market investors to get earlier into the innovation curve. companies know if they do not adjust, they will disappear. that is good for the economy, financial markets, investors. that is where the opportunity is print the opportunity to generate alpha in a low beta world. in a bear market and treasuries, we will be by definition on a 60/40 basis and a low beta world. let elsa is in investing thematically around a global multi-asset portfolio set, which is where i focus my attention. that is where the juice is, the old and the new. the clean energy etf is down almost 20% year to date. healthy, in my view. xle, the oil majors, up 40% year

to date. you can play with the old and the new and participate in markets going forward. i think we have a breadth of activity in the stock market, which is very robust. we have been able to go through bull and bear cycles and not have any problems. lisa: how much of that is contingent on the fed not hiking rates through 2023? jay: i don't know about 2023, but i don't think the fed does anything for the rest of the share, all of next year, and maybe the second half of 2023. i don't think it is worth spending a lot of time on that, frankly, because it is so far to the future. i expect this push and pull. we are in a market, we are not going back to the rates we saw six months ago. they will be significantly higher over this coming cycle,

which will reflect a better growth profile, driven by fiscal and monetary policy working together on a global basis. jonathan: jay, you are welcome, i gave you a moment on european banks. the s&p 500 up 25%. you had jay pelosky talking about the energy sector in the united states, up 41% so far. what a quarter. tom: the question is, do you get on board? those who have been leading or with the correction, do they come and catch up? i will not give an opinion, but that is the major debate. jonathan: we have seen the early part of the cycle. this quickly in 2, 3, 4, 5 months. lisa: there is a question if europe is nine months behind us, when not go to europe because the ecb will keep the pedal to the metal with policy.

jonathan: is recovery going to be steep enough to lead to justifiable interest rates? tom: the european banks are part of the pendulum of doom. [laughter] jonathan: coming up, invesco portfolio manager from new york city. equities at all-time highs. seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: i am ritika gupta. there has not been a major federal tax like since 1993. president biden wants to change that. he will call for higher taxes, which would include initiatives on infrastructure, climate and help for poorer americans.

republican members of congress are headed to the u.s. border with mexico. they want to put a spotlight on a surge of immigrants with a front tier they say is a result of president biden's immigration policies part kevin mccarthy will lead a dozen other lawmakers on a trip to a detention center in el paso. more problems for astrazeneca's coronavirus vaccine. the netherlands has joined a list of about a dozen places to suspend the shot due to side effects. in germany, angela merkel is feeling the wrath of voters. its worst result since world war ii in two regional elections. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by

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>> i think there is a small risk

of inflation and i think it is manageable. i do not think it is a significant risk and if it materializes, we will monitor. jonathan: janet yellen, u.s. treasury secretary speaking on abc. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. the s&p, up .2%. in the bond market, yields at post pandemic highs during friday's session. right now, about 1.62. the euro-dollar, 1.19. for those of you might have been confused about 20 minutes ago about the techno-king, it comes from tesla. the do confirm that musk retains his position as ceo.

elon musk will be called the techno-king of tesla. i feel like someone is being trolled. lisa: us. [laughter] tom: jon ferro, techno-king dancing in davos. let's get to it with kevin cirilli. china is in the news beneath the radar. a couple days, it will be front and center. there is a heritage goes back to world war ii. it dropped down by the japanese to pearl harbor long ago and far away. what is the symbolism of the secretary of state, secretary of defense going to anchorage to meet with the chinese? kevin: significant. it is the first meeting in terms of what the broader strategy

will be for the united states in the next two to four years. it comes in a time where lawmakers in both parties on capitol hill are raising concerns about china from a domestic supply chain perspective with a semi conductor chip shortage. also, with the looming beijing games. the united states should boycott the games, is what is being said. as far as what the rhetoric goes from a broader decoupling perspective, not just away from china, but toward european allies. for the secretary, who had some level of -- not just in changing tone success, but attracting european counterparts to get back in cohesion with the united states on a broader china policy, that will be something many geopolitical washers will be looking for. lisa: you have trade wars,

geopolitical tensions around taiwan. taiwan is becoming the most dangerous flashpoint for a potential war that involves the u.s., china, this is according to scholars the recent article. how much are you hearing from the biden administration to their approach for this particular issue, especially as china builds military capacity. kevin: they have not addressed in a forceful way what you just identified, which is in the geopolitical chatter world, increasing potential conflict in taiwan. most lawmakers, especially on the foreign services committee, and the intelligence committees, that sphere of capitol hill definitely point to taiwan as a potential flashpoint for some type of conflict. i was struck back to when the former undersecretary of economic affairs in the previous

administration traveled to taiwan and the communist party of china actually flew military planes in their airspace as a way to send some type of signal. this has been a story that has been increasing in awareness for washington policymakers, but is one that has flown under the radar in terms of mainstream conversations. lisa: this raises a point you talked about earlier, joe biden's administration, and it comes to china, looks like donald trump's administration. you wonder if we are hearing a hawkish tone or a continuation with more participation from allies. jonathan: the allies, getting the coalition of the willing, to borrow larry kudlow's phrase he used years ago, nothing happened. can europe come along this time around? kevin: jared kushner's op-ed in

the wall street journal the other day on the middle eastern back to china, that is the biggest question mark, 5g technology, attracting not just a u.k., but germany, to move away from huawei and these other technological companies, and can the u.s. attract investment -- invest, rather, in japan and other countries in the region and move away from the province. i have not heard the rhetoric from the left on human rights abuses as allowed as i have heard from the right. i don't know why, but i think maybe because they are the minority party right now. what i will be watching for is whether or not those calls on the abuses in china intensify from the left. if that happens, suddenly there is zero daylight between republicans and democrats in terms of their public discourse

on these issues. jonathan: did they keep those to issue separate -- human rights and economic relations -- or are they the same issue? kevin: it depends on who you ask. i am not trying to dodge. i think for the secretary, there is no question the beijing games are a bargaining chip, for lack of a better term, in the next two to four years before u.s.-china relations. i was speaking with a source yesterday, a progressive source, who says who cares if the u.s. goes to the olympics? why not go from an economic approach and hit china where it would hurt them. jonathan: it would be hard to believe the country who is basically accused another country of genocide would also allow those olympians to go ahead, but maybe that is in the position we are in right now. kevin: beyond that, negligence at best, putting it nicely, with the virus. jonathan: weekdays at 5:00 p.m.

eastern on bloomberg radio. such a complex issue. it will be really difficult to achieve anything on this front. tom: i believe it is the winter olympics, sooner rather than later, this is not an issue down the road with japan, there is an immediacy with this debate on china. jonathan: we mentioned the vaccine push, talked about vaccine hesitancy, check out hong kong. tomorrow, 30 years old plus, this will be opened up to because of reluctance to get a vaccine with the older age groups. tom: pandemic on, coming off of the alaska announcement, you see that as the age cohorts come down. jonathan: gene tannuzzo, columbia threadneedle global head market.

lastly, all over the place on 10-year gilts. this morning, 1.61. your high of the pandemic -- the post pandemic high came in friday's session, and that high on the 10 year was 1.64. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city, good morning to you. we are live on tv and radio. price action, all-time highs on the s&p 500. a little bit of weight on the s&p. on the russell, we pull back, but on the year, 19%. nasdaq is basically that flat. bond market, 2.1030 and two wednesday. we saw 1.64% on friday. yield right now is 1.6231. unchanged on the section. interesting to see the nasdaq post a week of gains last week, up 2%, even with that 10-year

creeping higher. we finally starting to get a little bit of sense of stabilization, something we will talk about through the week. on europe, i think this is the hardest trade to get right right now. the story around europe and the divergence between europe and the u.s. is so well-known, is it well priced? euro-dollar year to date comes in 2%. euro-dollar 1.1932. but the banks in europe are at 19.5%, largely off what we have seen on rates. when it comes to the economy, does the outlook in europe justify the gains we see in the financials on the continent? tom: the book value of jp morgan leading the way, world-class. the others, including ryan moynahan, at 12:00 noon today across bloomberg. i go to the red paying -- european banks, .23 of book

value. that is a different number. jonathan: a big repricing here in europe and in the united states. romaine: good morning. over in europe right now, we are seeing all those travel stocks -- i did not know where you were on friday, tom, but welcome back. they were nice to me when you're gone. we saw the travel leisure index reclaim those -- reclaim those hides from the pre-pandemic levels, which is pretty encouraging. looking at u.s. travel stocks, we reclaim those highs in the u.s. three or four weeks ago. we have seen that really continue. everyone is focused on bond yields, real yields, and the fed. but the travel and leisure index is doing its own thing. mgm resorts getting an upgrade this morning over at jeffrey's. tripadvisor got a price target upgrade to a street high target on friday. and you had all of that data come out of the tsa saying 1.4

million passengers screened on friday, the highest level in a year. the etf that tracks all of the airlines is up 2% here in the morning and up about 25% or so over the last couple of months. this is a big deal here. tom: i agree. this weekend, i was looking around, ferro has the gulfstream this weekend, and i was up with the riffraff looking at commercial airways, and it is crazy. romaine: did you go to the grammys, tom? tom: i did not go. i said if dua lipa is not going to win, i not going. romaine: a lot of people i know are already booking vacations and travel for later this year. we have heard from airline executives saying they are actually concerned now about capacity later in this year, that they will not have enough seats. i guess that is good as far as pricing power, but if you are

traveling, that could be an issue. a quick look at the board, another s&p reshuffling. nsb semiconductors. one's getting knocked out, zero's -- xerox getting the boot from the s&p 500. tom: a piece of history. blackstone and starwood to buy extended stay america for $6 billion from dow jones, maybe the first of a monday announcement of mergers. this dovetails with matt weekly or's -- matt winkler's great work on all the times we have gotten inflation wrong. we have talked about the wise men, they got it wrong year after year, decade. gene tannuzzo joins us from columbia threadneedle, head of fixed income for them, and comes to us with a history and heritage of carleton at

minneapolis. why did the wisemen get the inflation call wrong? we know it is worry, worry, where, and they get it wrong. why have they gotten it wrong? >> to some degree, tom, it is because of the success of monetary policy. if we think about the mission of monetary policy, it is price stability, among several other objectives in the labor market. if you look at we're inflation has been for the last 15 years, 95% of the time core pce inflation has been between 1% and 2.5%. for the most part, we have gotten price stability and got exactly what central banks wanted, which is low and stable inflation expectations. tom: it is a monday, but we will do a partial for's -- febose. what part of the yield curve dynamic interests you right now? >> we are looking at the long end of the yield curve. on friday, the 30-year it is a

meal that hit on december 30 1, 2019 musso pre-pandemic, by most measures. from a treasury perspective, we know what the front end is at zero. pinned there. the long end has fully retraced. now it is a fine tuning question of the intermediate segments of the yield curve, and it will depend a lot on how the fed earns the discussion on wednesday. jonathan: how do you think wednesday because? >> the economy looks better, spending data reasonably optimistic. but we also have 70 more million more vaccine doses that have been administered in the united states between the last fed meeting and when they will sit down this week. i think the reason to be optimistic is clearly justified. the question is, do they then reflect that in interest rates. the market is starting to price that in. we actually still think it is a little premature for the fed to be moving this back higher.

jonathan: wednesday, we will get the forecast and will look straight to the dots. how do the revisions need to look? >> we think growth and unemployment will be pretty large, quite frankly. what we do not know is, is the fed willing to forecast its own average inflation targeting, inflation over should? they have not really done that. they have not said, look, we're going to forecast inflation at 2.5%, 3%, and keep the policy rate at zero. it will be interesting to see if they do that. lisa: what are you looking at in terms of top performers over the next 12 months in fixed income? >> we think it is hard to generate a really old above inflation. you cannot do it with treasuries or tips paired with thick there are opportunities. in an environment where inflation is picking up, even if it is not a problem, as janet yellen said, it is picking up, and we see the level doing better in that environment. they say, boy, high yield, that

sounds good, but what we're looking for are those upgrade trades. last year during the pandemic, we saw a tremendous wave of downgrade with fallen angels. that took place in a two-month period. the upgrade wave plays out over a two-year period, and that is just starting, in our opinion. as the economy reopens, this will continue to gain steam. lisa: what do you tell clients that say the best you can do is eke out a positive return, not go gangbusters in an era of them -- rising yields. it is looking at the yields will rise quickly or slowly enough to clip coupons. what do you tell them in terms of how they should be positioned and whether they should come -- pull money out of bonds on together? >> you do need to be careful. the fact that valuations are elevated accurate, and that is not unique to the bond market. the other thing that is not unique to the bond market is that discount rates on cash flows in the economy are low and moving higher.

that is not just bad for bonds. so we need to be disciplined in our risk management approach when we think about investing in bonds and dividend-paying stocks are any other investment in this environment. because of the discount rate is going higher, that is a headwind. tom: i want to talk about your expertise in municipal bonds. this is ancient history, folks. you have seen this before, big government pop. what does infrastructure due to the municipal debt market? how does that dynamic work with roads, bridges, and everything else, how does it fold into the tax-free market? >> it is pretty significant, and we look at municipalities as being the largest investors in the infrastructure in the country. so if there is going to be a large-scale infrastructure plan, it cannot happen without the municipal market being involved. so we think it is critical that this last stage of stimulus focused on getting some capital into municipal governments, but also this next stage that is now

beginning to be debated in washington. munis are going to play a critical role, and i think it will start to expand beyond just the taxable market, were taxable munis have been a robust market of issuance. i think we're going to see more issuance coming back to the tax-exempt market, and with the prospect of higher taxes, i suspect that will be well received. jonathan: looking forward to the conversation. gene tannuzzo, thank you. where will the stimulus go? where will the checks go? a researcher said 200 individuals expect to receive the third round of stimulus checks this week, where will they go? around 10% of stimulus checks, according to this survey, may be used to buy bitcoin and stocks, equating to around $40 billion in total. it is a very small survey relative to how many people will receive these checks. this is part of the conversation of the $1400 checks, where does the money go? tom: 10%, it is a marginal

amount. i am much more interested in how it is spent in consumption. i just don't know. we're going to have to see as we go into this 7% or 8% economy. lisa: how about this, did jubal artwork -- digital artwork set records at auction last week. talk about crypto assets broadening. jonathan: and that was not the stimulus checks. tom: jon has won over his couch. lisa: but we're talking about the amount of money kind of flooding into the market, and it raises questions of whether these are signs of froth or signs of an ancient market growing or becoming more readily acceptable? i am not saying that beeple's stimulus checks, but i'm raising the issue of where money is going, and the digital world is getting a lot of it. a bitcoin play. john then swap -- jonathan:

coming, david rubenstein. where are the stimulus checks going? into 69 million dollar art pieces, apparently. 1.6283 percent on the 10-year. tom: is it art? jonathan: are we going to have that conversation right now? lisa: i will send this to you. tom: lycees -- lisa's kids do art. lisa: they do great art. jonathan: good to those of you in the new york. this is bloomberg. ritika: here is first word news. president biden is planning the first major federal tax hike since 1993. the money would help pay for the long-term economic recovery program designed as a follow-up to the pandemic relief bill. the package will include initiatives on infrastructure,

climate, and explant -- expanded help for poor americans. it will test the president's ability to attract republican support and keep democrats unified. and former president trump is vowing to punish house republicans who voted to impeach him by backing primary challenges. but a new congressional map may show some doing his work for him. six of the 10 expected to lose congressional seats. several live so close to their district boundary that it could be moved to another district, where they then face another incumbent. we have learned the european union is preparing to start legal action against the u.k. in a major escalation of post-brexit tensions. it follows britain's decisions to delay implementing a part of the brexit deal relating to northern ireland. the move could lead to the u.k. being hit with financial penalties or tariffs. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by

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>> there are lots of things we will still want to gather for, but the flexibility and

efficiency we can bring from working with technology and allowing people to live their complete lives, i think we will see much more of a hybrid. >> we now know that we can be very productive working from home. >> if you fast-forward and there is a vaccine and people feel comfortable, i think a lot of people will come into the office. jonathan: the gsk ceo and imf and another ceo. here is the price action this monday. all-time highs for the close on friday. 5.5% this monday morning, up a little more than .1%. 1.64% is the high friday on a 10-year, and also the post pandemic highs on a 10-year this morning, 1.5283, just creeping higher. in the foreign exchange, the

euro is weaker by .2% against the dollar. euro-dollar, 1.1928. tom: recalibrating on march 15, recalibrating into what is seen as the end of the pandemic, hearing on radio and television some of these themes, some conflicting and some debate points, but it is about the human condition. and what we see here in business. david rubenstein is from carlyle group, and his conversations have been wonderful. do you perceive an end to the pandemic? >> not overnight, not anytime soon. i think if the vaccination program in the u.s. is successful, as the president hopes it will be, is likely by the fall, we can return to some type of formality, but i do not think it will happen overnight, no. tom: what are business people doing? you have great context with your

daily work with carlisle and your earned capability over the decades. do business people ramp up for a 7% to 8% economy and hope and pray or do they settle and minutes for a 3% or 4% growth rate? which is it? >> i think the business communities assume we will have a pretty good growth rate because the stimulus package will steam in the economy. it is a very large package. i would be surprised if growth is at 3% or 4% given this stimulus. but we should recognize that the catcher has two different business communities, you have private equity or finance or technology, which is doing quite well and might do better than 4% through 7% to my but then you have the underclass, the blue-collar workers, those laid off, those who do not have enough mood and so forth, and those people will not be growing at that kind of rate. so we're dealing with two different economies. lisa: for your company that you are a leader at, how important is it for you to get your

employees vaccinated right now? >> it is very important to have people be vaccinated. i think when you have a vaccination process, you will have a healthier economy and population. you cannot force people to get vaccinated. i have been disappointed that so many people in the country, relatively speaking, say they do not want to be vaccinated, maybe 20 5% of the population is not yet convinced it needs to be vaccinated. i think we cannot get complete herd immunity unless we get a very large percentage vaccinated. so i am disappointed that some people do not want to be vaccinated. i understand why, but i think it is probably the wrong decision. lisa: this raises the conundrum for a lot of executives where they want their employees to have the vaccine. they do not know how to encourage it and cannot force them. what are the best incentives, and how important is it for you to get people back to the office, back traveling again him and leading more normal, pre-covid, types of life?

>> i think employers are struggling with this, but i think some employers will say if you are not vaccinated, do not come into the office, so some people will continue to work at home or there will be special places in the offices for people who are not vaccinated where they will have to be tested when they go in and so forth every day. that is not an optimal situation. clearly, it would be much better for all employers if most of their employees are willing to be vaccinated. for those who do not want to be vaccinated, there will have to be special ways to handle them. but i do not think you can force people to be vaccinated against their wishes. lisa: yeah, this definitely has been an issue. think about a special place to put people at a time when there is concern about the ongoing spread of a virus that has mutated. tom: that is an interesting idea, and this goes back to your public service with president carter a few years back. how close are we, david rubenstein, to the commonsense idea of a vaccine passport? >> i think it is possible, but i

do not think it will be really likely to have people forced to take vaccines, just think there will be too much resistance to forcing people to be vaccinated. i just do not think that will work. i will say in the minority community, for example, many african-americans have the view that very often they have been used inappropriately for vaccines that maybe were not as safe or tests that were not as safe, so there is some resistance in the african-american community. there is some resistance among white males, many of whom, for political or other reasons, think the public should not be telling them what to do. so you do see that white male voters who are republican, some of them are fairly determined not to be vaccinated. and you cannot force them. tom: with mergers and acquisitions right now,

transactions, not only traditional but also the effervescence in the market with specs, and such? >> for people in the m&a world and people in the private equity and finance world, it is almost as if there was not a pandemic. because deals are going on, just people are not meeting face to face, by and large. so it has not had a deleterious effect. the specs are something no one could have predicted. they clearly are very effervescent, the word mu have used -- the word maybe you have used. i do not think they are going away. i do not think specs are here as a temporary measure because of the pandemic. they do serve a purpose. some cases they do get a inflated in terms of the valuations when you have companies with no revenue getting very high valuations. on the other hand, they do serve a purpose, and i do nothing they're going to go away. they will be a permanent part of our financial structure.

tom: david, come back soon. david rubenstein, carlyle group founder. market unchanged on the s&p 500. 1.63% for the 10-year. yields up just a little bit in the last couple of minutes. tom: we had a choppy friday, but a breakout to a 1.64% or even through to 1.65% would be a huge monday signal. we are not there yet, but that is clearly the range bound goal. jonathan: we saw 1.64 percent on friday. lisa: and the question is, why? what was the impetus? and here we are. you talked about how stocks have managed to eke out gains. but tech stocks continue to underperform. look at losses for apple, 19 percent down from the highs? jonathan: unreal. they missed out on a huge rally we saw on the back end of last year. last couple of month, really

struggled, some of these big names. noelle corum joining us shortly from invesco advisers. 1.6283 on 10-year. all-time highs on the equity market. we are heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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>> we're going to get a powerful cocktail of a healthy economy and an economy that is physically stimulated. any. >> many of the checks will go towards people with a high propensity to consume, so they will spend that money quickly. >> we're in the a bear market for u.s. treasuries and not going back to the levels we saw six month ago. >> the focus right now is this unfolding growth surprise, which i do not think we have sort of fully baked into the numbers.