>> we're going to get a powerful cocktail of a healthy economy and an economy that is physically stimulated. any. >> many of the checks will go towards people with a high propensity to consume, so they will spend that money quickly. >> we're in the a bear market for u.s. treasuries and not going back to the levels we saw six month ago. >> the focus right now is this unfolding growth surprise, which i do not think we have sort of fully baked into the numbers. >> this is "bloomberg

surveillance." tom: good morning, everyone, "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. thrilled you are with us here at lots going on, and a major theme has to be a bullish tendency pandemic coming to an end. jonathan: today show is brought to you by the numbers 8 an 4. 8% gdp growth quarter and quarter. 4% unemployment. there are the goldman forecasts for this year in america, and it is said to be very good. tom: one of these things does not act like the other things, and that would be the pendulum of doom. the gloom crew is getting pushed aside, aren't they? jonathan: nine months ago, so many people got this so wrong, and i was part of the conversation, too. you have to be humble about what has taken place.

have gone from a position of sitting here saying it will take years, maybe even a decade, to recover, and now we're talking about regaining all of it and then some in the first two quarters. that was unthinkable months ago. tom: it is simple, apple, from the top, down 16%, 17%. who is counting? or is it apple off 114% from the march bottom a year ago? lisa: question is, where is the trajectory? will those declines continue? have we seen this leg of the recovery for big tech priced in or is there more dynamism end those names? dial this forward, will froth pop-up the top? and these big tech names, will that come for them despite the fact they are cash cows? tom: gloom out of europe. italy, germany. jon, the geography of the united kingdom is really something. the decline in deaths there is a

triumph. does the united kingdom have the same buoyancy we see in america? jonathan: the u.k. is focused on making sure that as many people can get that first shot as possible to reduce the most severe cases, and that is why their number is at 36.2 percent, the amount of population that has had at least one shot. not talking about 7% or 8% gdp growth, and that is because we have not had the same fiscal impulse. but we have seen a massive amount of fiscal support in the downturn, and that will continue. but this extra $1.9 trillion in the u.s. is something pretty unique, without a comparable situation anywhere i can see worldwide. tom: help me out on ponce. futures up. they were up more earlier. -- help me out on bonds. a look at the vix. good feeling. brent crude with a print twice, or $70 a barrel. what is the distinction of the

bond market this morning? jonathan: record high and the bond market. we're seeing the headline level start hit record highs again, even with bond yields creeping higher. 1.64% on friday for the 10-year, the new post pandemic high. 1.63% this morning. will we get that little bit of a test going into wednesday? just a little bit of a test from the federal reserve saying you thought this was confidence a couple weeks back, so do you feel the same way? tom: we will see. about two hours ago, we had a real look at the equity market. with invesco come on fixed income, particularly loans, noelle corum joins us, and she started out in the trenches of the trading desk, as well, and that is really cool, a very rare thing to get academics with her ability in the classroom that come out of the trenches of trading. what does the loan market look like right now? invesco is up to their eyeballs

in loans. what is the character of the loan market? >> tom, before we get started, i have to tell you that my father so perfectly gave me this this morning, and i thought it was too perfect not to show you, for st. paddy's day. tom: this is st. paddy's day, so we need to have a guinness on tap. lisa: for people listening on radio, she held up a big sparkly bowtie with sequins, just like tom's. carry-on. tom: so, how about those loans? [laughter] >> we're expecting around 7% growth for the year. inflation we expect to be messy, and that will keep the fed on the sidelines. we do and stash expect that we could see some more rate volatility -- we do expect to see more rate volatility. so we could see loans demand, and you have already seen that. you have seen retail investors

step in in a significant way. caveat that the retail investor also stepped out when they started to get worried ready quickly. so we never suggest putting all your eggs in one basket. diversify where you can, especially with levels where they are in terms of valuations. jonathan: this is important, because typically when we talk about fixed income, we do not talk about retail participation. what does that look like in the last month or so? >> it has really stepped up. a lot of investors are worried about that rate volatility. we have not seen it. we have not seen the voluntary the key -- volatility carry through into the other asset classes though, and that is the main reason we are still bullish on credit. i would not say -- we do think growth will be supported for fundamentals this year, and that is ultimately why we would suggest investing in bonds.

we think growth is going to support companies throughout the year, and that is what is going to be the story in 2021. jonathan: i want to pick up on one of your lines, and it is without context, but i have read this over the last month, six month ago, several years. valuations are rich, and investors are not getting paid for this risk. is that the new normal, that valuations will always be rich and investors will not be compensated for risk, because we live in a new world now? >> it is a new world. we are at very rich levels, and we do think a lot of this year will be about clipping the coupon. but because of the volatility we are likely to see in stocks, the rates, it does make sense to diversify your portfolio. we are seeing a lot of crossover investors, crossover demand, high yield, picking up yields

there, diversifying their, and then compensating themselves. we still think there is some value within the services sectors that you can also pick up. and there is still a little bit of value and leverage loans relative to how yields. lisa: there is a larger question going forward about whether the fed has put a floor under the default rate. in other words, is the fed put going to prevent a default rate among corporate debt from getting too high, because they will sweep in and end up buying that debt and reducing borrowing costs enough to let these companies continue to survive? >> this year is really about growth. we expect it to go down. ig, we expect lower supply. it will be a lot about deleveraging. so a lot of companies are making the right moves we would expect in a high-growth year. we would expect most of the growth to come in the next couple quarters as the stimulus is spent, of course.

before we would start to look for any kind of creeping back of covid concerns, but ultimately, we expect to end the year at potential in terms of growth. lisa: if credit risk is not the main risk, are you delving also into the riskiest appropriate debt, the ccc rated stuff, even on the fixed side, even on the bond side? >> a little bit. because of valuations over the are, if you see continued volatility and you are not being compensated as much as you would like as an investor with rich valuations, it does not make sense to go over your fees on risk and take a bunch of risks in your portfolio. but it does make sense to reach incrementally into this higher risk areas because we do expect growth to support these companies and allow them to improve fundamentals on the air. jonathan: good to see you, as

always love the bowtie. noelle corum there, invesco portfolio manager. lisa: you started out the program talking about sesame street. did you watch it in the u.k.? jonathan: yes, we did watch sesame street in the u.k. tom: he watched it this weekend, obviously. lisa: carry on. jonathan: thank you. talking about a 6% gdp growth, and it is still not consensus. the median estimate is still 5.5% here at bloomberg. 6.5%, 7%, a percent, still not quite consensus, just sounds like it's because so many guests are upgrading their forecast, but we're not there yet at the median level. tom: even more so is the idea of how many people become un- unemployed. the 7 million statistic is out there, but it is not consensus.

jonathan: it is a delicate dance to take on wednesday. it is tremendously difficult with growth and downward revisions to unemployment. where does inflation sit, and where does the dot plot sit? lisa: and people are pricing in that they will not say they are going to raise rates soon, but there also pricing in that they will have to do so. but they expect that at the time they have to do so, growth and inflation will be such that it will be more readily accepted by markets. a tight rope. tom: can i do a shout out? the grammys of the only awards were the actually really pay attention to people beneath the headlines. on tv, we run the video, and on radio, you know the songs. but in the alternative area, it is so cool that fiona apple won best alternative album. i saw her like at the absolute beginning, a million years ago, and she took out tame and paula.

-- tame impala. kevin parker of tame impala lost everything he owned in the fires a year ago, these people are still out there doing it. jonathan: very cool, tom. the musician in you speaking a little bit. tom: i know. and dua lipa and taylor won. lisa: this is what he did last night. just a stream of consciousness. jonathan: surprised he did not mention beyonce. lisa: beyonce deserved it. jonathan: coming up, albert ko, yell university medicine department chair -- yale university medicine department chair. this is bloomberg. ritika: here is first word news. there has not been a major federal tax hikes since 1993. bloomberg has learned that president biden wants to change

that. the higher taxes will pay long-term economic recovery program. the plan would include initiatives on infrastructure, climate, and expanded health for poor americans. the president would like to appeal portions of donald trump 's tax bill that benefited wealthy individuals. headed to the u.s. border with mexico, putting a spotlight on a surge of immigrants on the frontier they say is the result of president biden's immigration policies. a dozen lawmakers will be on a trip today to a detention center in el paso. in germany, chancellor merkel is feeling the rest of the voters. her christian democratic union crashed to its worchester results since world war ii in two regional elections -- worst results since world war ii. it was over the pandemic and slow pace of vaccinations. global news 24 hours a day,

on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is going to make a difference in the lives of millions of people in concrete, specific ways.

this legislation, as everybody has already mentioned, will provide $1400 in direct payments. jonathan: and the checks are going out right now. good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equity market turning just a little bit negative in the last couple of minutes, down about a point now on the s&p 500, pulling back just a touch from record hides -- highs. color stronger, crude lower. wti down to $65 a barrel come off by about .9%. tom: it is the churn of the market. we have pulled back, i get that, but i think it will be data weighted to get to withstand the fed meeting. in the backdrop come our thoughts on this pandemic. we have tried, with every interview going back well over a year now, to get clarity. and we do that with albert ko of yale university.

thank you for the update, dr. ko. give us a variant uptake. i get mixed articles, mixed messages. should we fear the variants? >> thank you very much for having me back on again. with respect to the variants, yes, we should fear the variants. what we have learned over the last couple of months is that these variants can be more transmissible and can the more virulent. they can cause increased risk of hospitalization and death. so that is important. so the question is, what is that threat, specifically here in the u.s.? we know now that we have widespread transmission of the b117 variant, the u.k. variant, and that is certainly more transmissible and there is increasing evidence it may be more verio lynch. tom: will these vaccines protect us against that?

you sit there as the expert in new haven, and do you suggest we are becoming a little too enthused? >> certainly the good news is the rollout of vaccinations, and i am proud as a citizen of connecticut that our state is doing a great job in the getting almost 30% of its population vaccinated. the big question is the one you just asked, tom. are we going to have what we call vaccine escape variants or mutants? we have some inkling that that may the case in south africa with the variant there. we're also worried about that with the variant in brazil, which is causing a humanitarian crisis in that country. so there will be more to come. but i think the bottom line is you can only get mutations if the variants replicate. and the best way to prevent that is to prevent transmission, and

controlling transmission, whether through public health prevention or through vaccines. lisa: preventing transmission, and that is where wanted to go, particularly with the astrazeneca vaccine and european nations raising concerns about the incidences of clotting after the injection. what is your take on the evidence here? do you think there has been enough evidence to show that perhaps there should be a pause put on the astrazeneca distribution? >> it is important to note that several eu countries have suspended the use temporarily -- or temporarily halted the use because of these blood clots. but there is also not enough evidence to show that there is a relationship between receiving those vaccines and as blood clots. it is important to remember that in the general population, blood clots happened once or twice each year for every 1000 people.

there have been tens of millions of people vaccinated with the astrazeneca vaccine. so certainly the 30, 40 cases they have identified could just be the background rates that we see in the population. at least in my opinion, we have not seen any smoking guns or anything that shows these vaccines are anything other than safe. jonathan: is it what you would expect to see these kinds of incidences happen in europe, given who we are vaccinating first? >> you know, most vaccination programs have focused on targeting the elderly and people with underlying medical conditions, that have higher risk of poor outcomes from covid , in order to protect those populations.

the populations also have increased complications, just based on underlying medical conditions. again, those rates we are seeing, 30 cases among millions of people that have been vaccinated, so it is very low. and there might not be an association between the vaccine and the rare events. lisa: there is a larger question of whether there is a huge difference between the different vaccines available. a lot of health officials have tried to prevent vaccine shopping. but is there a material benefit to certain vaccines over others? >> from the public health point of view, i think the first goal of the vaccine is to protect people from dying from the disease or having the severe comp locations. -- severe complications. and all the vaccines that have been approved in the eu and the united states and who have shown that the vaccines are highly

efficacious. there may be some inferences between whether they protect against milder forms of the disease or infection. that is evidence that we still need to get. as these vaccines are being rolled out. but this are small, probably less important differences, and i think the big issue, the key issue in getting out vaccines is the accessibility and ease of implementation. i think one of the big game changers has been the j&j vaccine, one dose. does not require complex cold storage. you know, very low temperature freezes. that is a big lift for many segments of the world's population. jonathan: game changer. professor albert cole of the

yale school of medicine. -- professor albert ko. good monday morning. we pull back a little bit on the s&p 500, down a single point now. yields unchanged, around 1.62% on a 10-year. tom: yields are unchanged right now. yields are stunningly moved from weeks ago. chairman powell has a whole new guild world on wednesday to look at. jonathan: 1.62% this morning. i agree, tom. a lot has changed over the last month. a lot to think about on wednesday. looking forward to the special on wednesday. tom: i cannot keep count. lisa: special numbers. tom: i will have a green sparkle bowtie. jonathan: your equity markets

shaping up as follows come all-time high for the close on friday. we have pulled back by a single point this monday. tom: borderline, a loner -- ♪

jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. counting you down to a fed decision this wednesday. economic data needs only one thing. here is michael mckee. michael: good morning and good news to start the week if you're able for the economy -- if you're a bull the economy. the empire manufacturing index comes in at 17.4, better than the forecast 15. the best since late 2018. we are seeing strength in manufacturing in the new york area. here is the interesting thing. while the index for employment fell a little bit, still positive at 9.3, the index of

prices paid is at 64.4, the highest since august of 2008, just before the great financial crisis got underway in earnest. the fed has something to look at in terms of prices. not so much that new york rices are high. it is the speed at which they have gone up and whether that concerns the market. tom: that is right where i wanted to go. i wanted to do the market with you. it is the latest change, it is the second derivative. drive your feel for the first and second derivatives of this economy right now. michael: in the inflation stance we will see a quick second derivative move because we start to see the low numbers from last year during the pandemic all. the fed is anticipating that. the real question is do we see transmission into the core rates from the headline rates. we see core rates go up, do we see inflation start to get embedded in the economy?

the fed is betting these are going to be one offs. prices received still high. not as high as the input prices. jonathan: walk us ahead to wednesday's press conference. jerome powell. how will he walk this line between operating the forecast for u.s. growth, which is what everyone is expecting, while also saying it is still worthy of our remaining easing on the monetary policy front? michael: that is going to be the argument. they will talk about the fact we have a high unemployment rate, and the augmented unemployed rate, 10% to 12% still out of work. the disconnect seems to be the market is not buying the change in their framework and their pricing in a move more quickly than the fed is at this point. to be fair, the fed only does this quarterly and falls -- and wall street analysts do this

daily. we will get new projections from the fed on wednesday. everyone will be looking at the dot plot. tom: do you see how lisa abramowicz posits her question to mike, like mike, ask the chairman my question in the press conference? jonathan: the issue over the news conference of the fed that mike mckee does not get to go first. he goes near the end. what did you have -- tom: what did you have for lunch, mr. chairman. jonathan: what is the number one question given their will be 20 before you? michael: i have a good idea what is for lunch. it is like the white house press group and they cannot let everybody in. i will ask a question for lisa. tom: michael mckee on an eventful week. he was taking notes as you ask that question. lisa: always. he is much more direct. tom: the joy of bloomberg

surveillance is to move from michael mckee and a look at market economics to someone like lewis alexander, he is at new more a, the chief u.s. economist , that barely describes his service at the federal reserve system and his economics. there are different groups of economists and lewis alexander has always been someone who said calm down about the worry of inflation. dr. alexander joins us this morning. it must've been in the air at yale university. how do you do respond to the inflationistas of 2021? lewis: clearly the economy will be strong in the near term. i would emphasize a lot of that is the burst approach, that we will translate from fiscal support to fiscal drag quickly. there are supply concerns that may drive inflation in the short run, but i would ask you are those price constraints going to

be there a year from now? we think inflation continues to be well anchored, so i think the fed is right to be relaxed about where it will be a year from now. jonathan: what you see as the biggest anchor in that basket for the year ahead? lewis: one of the things i think people are not paying enough attention to is rent. it is a very big part of it. there are lots of good reasons why it is cyclically sensitive and it takes time for those things to be worked in. one of the reasons we are not more concerned about inflation in the short run is that. there are issues around health care. obviously policy related issues. we are not expecting that to be something that will drive it over the long run. jonathan: what about -- lisa: what about the frictions people talk about with the increasing sodded demand for services and all of the companies that have gone out of its nest and have to hire workers?

people talk about how there could be an increase in wages beyond what people expected, the same time you have supply chain disruptions with the onset of increased demand. how much does that factor into the equation? once wages go up they will not go back down that quickly. lewis: let me push back on that a little bit. we have had hot economies before. if you recall the economy the two years before covid, we were operating on full employment with an unemployment rate around 3.5%. aggregate demand -- the trump tax cuts -- what were we worried about? we were worried about inflation being too low. the notion we will have the kind of momentum in the inflation process we had in the 1970's, i do not see the case for that. is there going to be short run pushing up of inflation because of how strong the economy is going to be over the next six to 12 months?

that could be the case. we tend to think there'll be an offset from rent, but that is possible. unless you think that will be built into the momentum inflation, i do not think it has changed the outlook that much. the fed wants higher inflation. going from where we are now to the low 2%, which is what they want, is possible, but not the kind of thing the market seems to be worried about. lisa: if the inflationistas are wrong and that is not the tail risk, let's turn to another issue. that is taxes. this comes as joe biden talks about increasing taxes the most since 1993, that is what he is expected to talk about, to finance his infrastructure plan. what is the track record in terms of how that affects the economy and corporate growth based on history? lewis: tax increases can

certainly be a drag on growth. it obviously depends on how much and the types of tax increases that have been put in place. i would stress the fact that what is being discussed by joe biden is pretty minor. we are talking about taking the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, which is where it was supposed to be before the big trump tax cuts. to be frank, we are not talking about paying for a majority of the infrastructure plan biden is talking about. if we get $1 trillion over 10 years in tax increases, that is about the limit one can imagine. i suspect what you will see in the negotiations over this deal is as the objections to taxes rise, as the pushback problems, you will end up with a smaller infrastructure bill, less taxes. our forecast is we get eight $2

trillion infrastructure deal with no taxes. tom: i want to go back to the inflationistas, i want to go back to tobin, where james tobin talked about nominal gdp targeting, looking at the sum total of the american economy. are we going back to some form of nominal gdp targeting when we get beyond this pandemic and beyond this boom? lewis: the fed talked about all of that in their review. ben bernanke had a variety of proposals that were not close to nominal income targeting -- that were close to nominal income targeting. the fed decided on this in patient targeting framework. i do not think we will move away from that. you can argue average inflation targeting has some important larry's to nominal income targeting. the bottom line is i think

they're going to be patient over the next several years unless you think inflation is about to accelerate in a way that is different from the dynamics we have seen in inflation over the last 20 years. then i think that patients will play out. jonathan: always good to hear from you. lewis alexander. numura chief u.s. economist. forecast from jp morgan, 10 year treasury forecast 1.95 by the end of 2021. a taste of how things have changed. we have seen the upward revisions of growth and yield forecast. tom: i think that is a refreshing to hear from dr. alexander. all of the inflationistas get all of the headlines and media frenzy, particularly the gloom and doom and all of that. it is guys like lew alexander

that have been dead on forever 10 years. jonathan: the inflation basket and where the weightings come from. tom: they never got enough credit for nailing these calls. jonathan: lisa has to get the final word on the pendulum of doom. lisa: i think the bigger risk is not higher inflation, it is a disinflationary environment. this sounds crazy to time people are talking about higher inflation rate you talk about where prices are increasing, it is the stuff we buy. that is not a recipe for good inflation unless there is a boom in services. that to me is the key question. jonathan: i needed a final dose. lisa: was that good? i want to say something about this. it is looking around the corner. i would argue that right now it is harder to look around corners whenever because of the bifurcated nature of the outcomes and the risks in the markets. jonathan: so profound, lisa. thank you. lisa: any time.

jonathan: coming up, steve major. tom: can i go with you? jonathan: you can come. that will be shortly. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down a single point. tom: steve may not show up. jonathan: maybe he will be there, maybe he will not. maybe lisa will be there to tell you about looking around corners. lisa: [laughter] ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. joe biden is blending the first major federal tax hikes since 1993. the money would pay for the long-term economic recovery program designed as a follow-up to the pandemic relief bill. that package will include initiatives on admin structure, climate, for poor americans.

former president trump is bowing to punish house republicans who voted to impeach him by backing primary challengers in a new congressional map based on the 2020 census may do some of his work for him. six of the 10 expected to vote -- six of the 10 who voted for impeachment are in states expected to lose seats. they could move to another district where they face another incumbent. bloomberg has learned the eu is preparing to start legal action against the u.k. and a major escalation of post-brexit tensions. it follows a delay in implementing a part of the brexit deal relating to northern ireland. the move could lead to the u.k. being hit by financial penalties or tariffs. blackstone group and starwood capital are betting the hotel industry will recover. they agreed to by extended stay america, and operator of hotels and motels, for about $6

billion. that represents a 50% premium over extended stay's closing price on friday. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> manhattan has been the laggard. it has been late to the party. in the last three or four

months, we are starting to see an escalation inactivity. you cannot expect new york to rebound until people feel safe, and that looks faster than expected. tom: jonathan miller on top of what is happening in new york. i observed there is new activity in new york city, with reduced rents and a lot of free months. one of the great symbols of the weekend is lisa abramowicz cooking up a storm. i'm trying to keep up. i do that with looking at martha stewart and tom colicchio videos from 14 years ago. tom colicchio saving me with the important cornish hen recipe. tom colicchio joins us with crafted hospitality. what is the comeback of restaurants? can you celebrate now? tom: restaurants should be

celebrating that the restaurants act was included in the stimulus package, and we are receiving $28.6 billion as an industry focused on the smaller restaurants. that is something to celebrate about. i am finding that the tone in the restaurant, we've been open at a limited capacity for months, and our up to 35%. new york is going 50% this week. i have noticed the tone has changed. people seem happy are. people are still being vigilant in terms of protecting our staff. we will have people put masks back on. people are complying. i get a sense of optimism. it is the tone that is hard to explain, but more chatter, more smiles, that is what i'm seeing. lisa: anyone who walked around the city yesterday certainly felt the same.

there is a longer-term question about the how the -- about the decline in the office, more people expecting the office worker crowd cannot come back in the same form as it was in 2019. how will that affect the restaurant given the dependence on the business lunches? tom: it will definitely affected but i do not know if that will be longer lived. david solomon says he wants workers back in the office. if goldman sachs goes back i am sure morgan stanley back and the rest of them. i am sure after a certain point people will come back. it could be three days on, two days off. company starting to shed office space. lens density, especially in midtown. i expect it will be short-lived. after the recession of 2008 pump it took until 2015. by 2015 we were back to

prerecession levels. i think it will happen sooner. i think by december, if the variants are under control, i think we will have a heck of a december. a lot of pent-up demand and pent-up money on the consumer side and the business side. i think that money will be spent freely. i suspect we will have a great december. lisa: if we talk about the great december you've mentioned you have seen an increasing number of new restaurants pop up. can you talk about the nature of those restaurants and why they are starting now? tom: there were some restaurants that planned to open before the pandemic hit and some of them put everything on hold. now we are starting to see them open up again. the other thing is there is a lot of opportunity. a lot of restaurants closed and that is unfortunate, but the brokers are busy pushing spaces, so people are picking up good deals. they are built out restaurants with no key money, maybe free

rent for a period of time. i do not see the rents going down but i've i'm seeing a period of free rent and generous ti. if you can pick up a fully built out kitchen and you are not getting charged for that, there are some opportunities. i expect we will continue to see restaurants opening up. tom: in your video with martha what brought me to tears is when you took the baguette and pour the chicken stock into it to get the stuffing for the cornish hen. we are all having fun pretending we are you at home. are we really going to go back to restaurants? tom c.: i am chuckling because i have no recollection of doing that with her at all. lisa: he is making it all up. [laughter] tom c.: the question is are we

going to see people going back to restaurants? i think so. i am getting tired of my food. i suspect people are going to want to go out. if they feel it is safe to go out they will go out. over the weekend i went to visit my mother who lives in long island. i had not seen my mother in over a year. her grandchildren have not seen her. she is vaccinated now. as soon as she was fully vaccinated we waited two weeks. i think that will happen more and more joint i think people will start -- if they are fully vaccinated they will feel safe to go out. by may 1 they are opening up vaccinations to everyone. i suspect by june and july people will feel comfortable. after september and the kids are back to school we get past the holidays, i suspect october, november, december. tom: thank you so much.

that is a wonderful way to wrap up our conversation with the discussion on what we are seeing one year on. tom coleco with crafted hospitality. craft la opening this week. it is the stories, the pent-up emotion for every family, every story, the single people, the married people, even the divorced people. extraordinary, the pent-up emotion to get back to normal. lisa: i would totally gray. i am so excited, my pent-up emotion to tell my children even tom colicchio is sick of his own cooking so you cannot complain about mine anymore. what he is speaking to his right , everybody does want to get out. he is speaking to this boom, everybody has the savings they can spend. good luck reserving your plane tickets. tom: the plane tickets are what

i am looking at. i wonder what portion of the 7 million employed are in tom colicchio's world. i would suggest it is a larger amount than you think. lisa: and how many people will come back. i would suggest goldman sachs has upgraded their forecast and they are expecting u.s. growth to accelerate to as much as 8% in the fourth quarter of this year versus the same period in 2020. the unemployment rate to fall to 4% by the end of the year. 4%. tom: what does that do to wages? i am not looking at this fit meeting, i am fascinated about april 28. lisa: the question is are people getting brought back into the market? how this number is calculated will also be important. tom: we did not mention bitcoin today. lisa: i think we mentioned digital art. isn't that close? bitcoin surging backup. didn't you take the weekend off

to invest in bitcoin? tom: i did. lisa: how did that go. tom: i am still all-cash. brian moynihan, bank of america, look for that at the 12:00 hour. david westin with that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪

want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile, you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network? sure thing! and with fast, nationwide 5g included - at no extra cost?

we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction... ...and learn how much you can save at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. ♪ jonathan: chairman powell two

days away. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. equity futures slightly negative. we begin with the big issue. markets focusing on one thing this week. >> the fed. >> the view central bankers are generally holding. >> we have had a big backup in yields. >> treasury yields going up. >> the bond market in a tantrum. >> the economic backdrop is improving. >> the fed has been clear. >> core pce over 2%. >> they want inflation to run hot. >> stimulus from the government. >> surely there will be demand-side inflation. >> it makes people nervous. >> what does the fed do with their expectations for the first rate hike? >> the focus is this unfolding growth sur