♪ >> interest rates, gunner performance of value we have had for years is starting to unwind. >> we are in a bear market for bonds right now. >> we have to figure out what we are comfortable with. >> the fed's job has been to deal with monetary policy we are hearing more dealing with income inequality. >> this is bloomberg with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. on jonathan ferro. -- i'm jonathan ferro. post pandemic highs going into that term and powell news conference. tom: his forecast adjusted by

the fed, we are seeing it with market economics like -- it was a day ago deutsche bank and peter huber going up to 2.25%. by the end of the summer -- there is no summer in london, but summer happens soon in new york. jonathan: 2.25% at deutsche bank. yields are high going into this news, rents. the chairman -- this news conference. he has threatening 170. -- he is threatening 170. tom: how many times are we going to hear " transitory" today? jonathan: that is a drinking game for later. [laughter] jonathan: no real drama here yet.

this is going to be the big issue for the federal reserve later. show me your forecast. now show me the doppler. lisa: this will be the key question in the bond market. my key question is how are bond in esther's lining up -- investors lining up? they are going against consensus where you have deutsche bank and j.p. morgan higher prognostication of higher yield. against the backdrop of an aging population -- jonathan: consensus around the long-term trend, i have not seen that shift in a couple months. lisa: i what point do you get higher inflation? well this be a seachange? tom: what is so important here -- what is so important here is

we do not know the multipliers. jonathan: so true. tom: you name it, we do not know. we make jokes about the pendulum of doom. [laughter] tom: there is a mystery of multipliers within investment. we do not know and determine powell does not know. jonathan: and neither does the white house. i know -- the biggest variable is how the money gets spent, how the savings get pared down. that could be the difference between five point 5% gdp growth and a percent gdp growth -- 8% gdp growth. tom: they got their checks yesterday. he spent the whole dam check -- hold check on a haircut! [laughter] jonathan: good morning.

we look like this on the s&p 500 index. we pull back just a little bit. the move you want to see is on the bond market, your 10 year in america with the new post pandemic hi. we see at this -- post pandemic high. this moves up three points on the daily. lisa: i what point does it become a b -- at what point does it become a buy? bloomberg -- how much will go towards housing? we will get building permits today. building permits are the ones to watch. how much will you see an acceleration from the highest levels we have seen since the 2000's? we will see the ramifications of those $1400 checks.

will they go to meme stocks? will gamestop get a boost? today the big event, 2:00 p.m., the fed's decision and the 2:30 p.m. conference with jay powell. a lot of questions about the outlook, a lot of questions about inflation. what will they tolerate? is it 2.5%? key questions for the chairman. jonathan: i find it amazing that on days like this, the conversations we have. we are talking about 6% gdp growth in america and may be the fed is threatening to raise interest rates in 2023. you think this sounds ridiculous at the moment -- a massive fiscal plan in washington, a year of huge growth and may be a fed that might move the. up an

inch to a single hike in -- the dot up an inch to e-cig a hike in -- to a single hike in 2023. i know it enter was doing -- you -- i know what andrew was doing. he was playing extreme members -- extreme frisbee. andrew joins us now. we will start with this cycle. you put out a note in the last 24 hours and i think it is important to understand that you are already talking about midcycle market. before the economy has even gotten started. andrew: good morning. i think that is am important thing -- an important theme. dark -- there are key events

going on today that are important to the market but we need to step back and think about the cycle. there are a lot of reasons why this cycle could burn hotter and burn shorter. that is a key theme for us at morgan stanley. that is what my colleague was talking about the other day. the market might have to transition from early cycle trades and investment strategies to even late cycle strategies faster than one would have done in past cycles. tom: do you agree that the ticket to the house of gorman is the calculation of when and how the gdp fade occurs? that is the first-order condition here, isn't it? andrew: i do. i also think to a you guys were mentioning there is a lot of unprecedented elements of this. you have been someways that unique -- a unique demand and

supply shock happening. if you think about the demand curve, you have a record high savings rate, a record amount of fiscal stimulus put into the economy in the way of checks and other transfers and you have a lot of people who for the first time will be able to consume goods and services they have not been able to consume before and may be less price sensitive to doing that. ellen is forecasting a .1% growth number -- 8.1% growth number. we are optimistic around the growth outlook. does that start to come back? for companies, a very normal midcycle dynamic is that as the cycle progresses, sometimes you get margin pressure, these costs that come through start to hit the bottom line. early in the cycle, small caps

do well because they have small operating leverage. they do less well as the cycle progresses. lisa: this is a fantastic explanation. we could see that growth. when you say burn hotter but burn shorter, there is a question -- when do 10 year treasuries -- w -- when do 10 year treasuries come on the heels of this expansion? andrew: that is the right question. our interest rate strategists are forecasting the u.s. 10 year to end the year at 1.7%. we are very close to that number. i think that is the right question to ask and as the yield curve has steepened, to carry

the economics of holding treasuries has gotten better. what we get today and what we get out of this question around the xlr exception is important, but stepping back to me one of the most fascinating charts in the entire market is what the break even expectation curve looks like. at the moment the fed could not ask for better breakeven inflation expectations! they are high over the next five years, but low over the next 10 years, 30 years. that is important for the bond buying story. it is essential to bonds being a buy for those yield curve dynamics to come into play, we won't have something to run out of control. tom: we have got to go to this -- i look at the heritage of john randolph and brown ultimate

frisbee. did you do brownell to when you were there == brown -- brown ultimate when you were there? andrew: i did! tom: thank you. jonathan: andrew sheets, morgan stanley. this was my fault. i will take responsibility. tom: this was your fault. the first time the show is off the rails because of the. jonathan: is it it -- it is so important what they think about the cycle and how this cycle and where we are from the market's perspective and the early moves they made back in april and the top now about removing that from the small caps and the idea that we are seeing a shorter cycle and we are already talk about midcycle dynamics. lisa: and the economics owning

duration of owning long-term treasuries is starting to look more attractive ahead of the expectation of mid and later cycles. jonathan: we will continue to have this conversation with michael purves. if you want more talk about pet haircuts, all of the above -- lisa: they will be speckled and! jonathan: there will be -- lisa: they will be sprinkled in! jonathan: there will be a special. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ >> our regular group to. the fed is expected to stay the course. policymakers are expected to keep interest rates near zero and maintain the pace of asset purchases. the forecast may give an indication of how many of chairman powell's colleagues are

committed to his aggressive -- biden's plan will call for higher levies on companies and relief for middle-class households, including those in the $110,000 a year income range. the president wants to encourage companies to increase domestic investment. a shooting at massage parlors in and around atlanta, georgia have left eight people that, many asian women. americans are preparing to spend the $1.7 trillion they have saved up. a wave of consumer demand is coming. a year of pandemic has devastated the economy but those with disposable income are ready to go out and splurge. some are causing this " revenge spending."

global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> a smaller bill probably would have done the trick and by the

trick i mean making sure we have shored up unemployment insurance, modest aid to states, those sorts of things. writing checks to people losing their jobs is hardly targeting. we risk losing firepower for later. jonathan: that was glenn halbert, professor of economics. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 165 -- tom: rounded up, john. one -- round it up, john. we are at 166. jonathan: that was yesterday's close on the screen. the futures prices down by three quarters of 1%. tom: i do not -- do we say it is a spike higher yet?

we are on the edge of a spike or surge. jonathan: what an interesting time for it going into this fed decision into this chairman powell news conference. the chairman will be asked the question " do you like what you see on the screen?" tom: it -- our michael mckee will be part of that press conference. right now kevin cirilli is with us. the luxury as i can go granular! i will go to your guest tonight, the gentleman from south dakota like -- who like lincoln lost and lost. kevin cramer knows what it is like to lose an election. he did it a lot before he started his north dakota career. how does senator kramer i just posted stimulus? kevin: he has the philadelphia

eagles of politics! they are going to be really fighting for there to be some type of investment in infrastructure in a way that does not mean they have to raise taxes. it will be increasingly difficult for them to do so given the simple math of the congress. he actually put forth a bill yesterday with republicans in the house that would codify a piece from the executive branch that would make it more difficult for the current administration to make it harder for there to be investment in coal energy and other forms of energy as well. he has tying infrastructure to the cold debate with -- coal debate with that key sin dressed -- key centrist. tom: kramer has got to find some

love with the moderates as well. can those republicans move and assist moderates to a moderate outcome? kevin: that is such an impo rtant point. cramer beat heidi heitkamp. she was seen at the time as a centrist democrat who would be able to win over states like north dakota, candidly, back in the 2020 cycle had camp -- heitkamp was seen on the short list for vp along with tim kaine and enclosure -- amy klobuchar. cramer comes from a state that voted for heidi heitkamp.

lisa: former president trump's wall -- they need to come up with a decision in terms of whether to keep building it. what are the political ramifications on both sides of this debate? kevin: it is huge. this week we have been focusing on it. we talk about the symbolism of what that would wall -- that wall has come to represent. will you have a made for viral social media moment where president biden says tear down that wall? i don't know. for 3000 teenagers who will be staying in the dallas convention center who crossed the border and now have to face ramifications of where they should be, where they should go, that is a serious problem that goes beyond republicans and democrats. it has eclipsed solution from

policymakers on both sides of the aisle for two decades. silicon valley has a role to play here. main street has a role to play here. big sit -- institutions have to come to the table. secretary mayorkas was on good morning america earlier this week in which he said he would not use the word " crisis" to define this, but quietly what i hear in the halls of congress is this is a crisis that needs to be addressed. jonathan: we need to talk about a currency move. it is your story right now. the president calling the president of russia. maybe he thinks he is a killer. he goes on to say that putin will pay the price of meddling in u.s. elections. he does think putin is a killer. walk us through the relationship

between the u.s. and russia right now. the former president use to say that the relationship with russia was -- not anymore. kevin: president biden given increased tension ring the election of the last cycle has a lot of pressure for how he will be dealing with russia and ukraine. for him to be using that language is a clear sign of who he is aligning himself with in congress including the likes of some more hawkish members of his party as well as from a foreign policy perspective hawkish as well as from the republican centers as well. in addition i would add that secretary blinken traveling in his first overseas trip earlier this week making a stop in tokyo, japan. this is without question the most plain speed -- plain speak

week two articulate their views on -- to articulate their views on russia and china. tom: knock on effects for the 10 year as well. this interview with the president, a number of other topics addressed, but that is a shocking headline. jonathan: we will talk about that later. here is the price action on the screen away from that weaker ruble. the focus is on the bond market and determine powell later today. new post pandemic highs on a 10 year yield. 166.21 up four points. a lot more on the nasdaq, off by 100 points. yields up, equities loader -- equities lower going into a fed

decision later and what could be a fascinating news conference with the jay powell. he said it was a statement of confidence that we still see this bond market behaving this way. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: from new york city, good morning. live on tv and radio, we have the price action looking at the fed decision. chairman powell is where the new story begins with the bond market. yields are up, they are at post pandemic highs on the treasury market. on tens -- deals are up and curves are steeper. so what does that mean? early on this morning, the russell was the underperformer. now the nasdaq is. the nasdaq futures are up by 8/10 of 1%. this is a ripple effect from high yields and into the equity and effects market. the dollar is stronger. the dollar index is starting to make another move. up by 1/10 of 1%.

the ruble factors in but very small. this is about the euro and that's the biggest point in the dollar index. yields are up. big question is, does the chairman feel comfortable with what he sees in the bond market? tom: i don't think we can get off track onto analysis with the fed. we can do that with our guest in the moment. i know romain has a look at the markets. jonathan: let's get a look at that. romaine: stocks are going to be in a holding pattern until we get clarity from powell. especially that 10-year. some of the individual stories, there's the decision in the u.k. to classify all workers as actual workers, forcing the hand and the real question is whether we will see similar measures in the u.s. or other european countries pre-whether this provides legal leverage.

all of the security stocks are higher here and gamestop, i know you are big into the gamestop trade. bill gross is on shortness. let's take a look at other names moving here. this is a big deal, this was the stock of 1800 sent. everything related -- 1800 percent. everything related to hydrogen has been on fire. investors are buying and not asking questions. people really started to question evaluations -- question valuations and it was said that one company will have to restate earnings. some analysts say this appears to be a true accounting error, not anything more if various. but it is something to keep an ion as people reevaluate the valuations. this is a big power provider, texas is the biggest market, they basically gave an outlook

that raises a lot of questions. this is a shut down for texas in almost a week. and this bidding more is continuing. momentum is on top and the beneficiary is coherent. tom: there is a fed meeting with the important view of the fact -- the equity markets. really all of the markets. jordan rochester is with us. i'm going to ignore the channel and go to him for the bigger things that matter. tell me the correlation that you as a pro have from dollar dynamics and the yield of 10 years. where does that really kick in to the u.s. dollar? jordan: the main thing is the

real yield. the inflation-adjusted. that's actually driving everything. if you plot the dollar on the x y index, that has anchor. this recent turn has actually done a bit more than what the real yields would suggest. that means the dollar is overvalued. going to the fatah come i think the fear factor is high. -- going to the fed, the fear factor is high. if this box another selloff, -- i think the dollar has moved bit more. and personally, i'm pretty neutral. we took out a cheeky trade. we are looking for some dollar weakness after the fed, hopefully they are not hawkish. tom: what's the horse and what's the cart? for chairman powell to be direct about it, does the yield move in the dollar moves?

or is that the other way around? >> -- jordan: it's all very quick. let's imagine that the fed's patient but does little to offset the concerns of the market. that could see some dollar strength. the other risk is the forecast. you have the dot plot which is their expectation aware inflation growth and front-end rates will be in a few years. our focus is 100% on the 2023.. we are looking at a few -- the 2023 dot. most are not exciting the median to increase. we are. that is the risk. if the fed signals that one rate hike, what do markets do? they forecast. jonathan: you're talking about

what the market expects and then what economists forecast. is it different than what the market is actually pricing? jordan: that's fair to say. when it comes to the dot plot come i would say that i've spoken to some economists, it would be hard to see what the market is pricing for the dots. the long end moved more than economists would have forecasted. my personal view is that we could get to 150 in the 10 year rate by june based on the previous pattern. it's nonlinear. how we moved too far too fast? is there more to go? and the answer seems to be that there's more to go. lisa: if you are correct and there's more movement in the dots, you get a stronger dollar and higher yields, there's a question on what this does based on positioning with the higher risk and the higher currencies out there.

how offsides could traders find themselves? jordan: in the rate market, the good news is that anyone who is thinking that the rate won't move much is that a lot of short positioning has built up in the rate market already. whether we get a massive explosion, i doubt it. we will get a move but it will not be a slow. when it comes to e.m. markets, yes. we have had a pretty rosy start to the year with the expectations and then got baffled by the yields. that's been weighing on the economy. so if you are long, do it by something other than the dollar. this is the way most people will be looking at doing this over the next few weeks. jonathan: most people say what you think of the euro-dollar. it's actually the hardest to call right now isn't it? jordan: it's been tough.

when we broke below 1.2, i broke short. we had the recent break lower and at the moment, if you look at it from a chart perspective since january we are in a downtrend. since september still enough trend. how do we square the circle? we do have some uncertainty, when the u.s. financial flows are strengthening the dollar. but the trade flows are substantial. there is some stimulus in the u.s. and that's when this will matter. in the short term, the rates drive the currency and it is about the payments. i do expect a weaker dollar, it's just the timing of it. and hopefully when the e.u. gets their vaccination plan together it shifts. tom: i bet so much money on the tots versus arsenal, where's the big figure move over there? jordan: i would say you have to

creep about liverpool on the table. tom: i like that, where's the three-four big figure move? jordan: three is a guaranty. the highest are the ones that have a lot going forward. sterling stands out to me. we are reluctant to buy the pound after brexit so i think we can get to 84 and possibly beyond that if the good news keeps coming. that's the high trade. the others are commodities. i think they are still underpriced, given the reopening. a massive lack of investment in the supply side. the opec situation going on now has surprised us. not expanding the output. that means likes of canada, norway, australia, those big moves are still to come. jonathan: and we have to leave it there.

we need to reset and we will break out into the bond market, not just the gilt market. the yield is up by five basis points, this is the 30 year, the 241, on 166 on the 10 year we are talking about post-pandemic highs and the 30 years talking about the back end of 2019 and up by another three basis points . the yields are up. many will say that the yields are up for good reason. the outlook is getting brighter. we ask the same question, what point is the chairman of the fed uncomfortable what they are seeing? tom: i'm gonna listen to mr. rochester and go from the visible yields to the calculation of the inflation-adjusted yields. it's not really a headline now. i need to go three -0.60 -- through a negative zero point 60 but we are getting up there. jonathan: the nasdaq 100 is

down. lisa: the correlation is tight and continues to be. there are questions about the liquidity in the treasury market which has been declining in recent weeks. i do wonder how this is due -- how much this is due to dealers and uncertainty to the respective liquidity ratios. will they be able to have an extension? will they have to sell billions in treasuries? it sounds like it's on the peripheries, but the pool of buyers has in general shrunk. jonathan: i don't know if it's on the fixed income market. i think for most people, the supplementary leverage issue is the big issue per it i wonder if the chairman dodged the question. saying we will let you know next week. lisa: but they can't sell everything march 30. if you think of the hundreds of billions of dollars in the treasuries that people have to deal with, if the fed does not extend this, you'd have to think they get on that earlier. jonathan: if that's the outcome.

we need to discuss this more. it's a complex issue. for this market, yields higher, equities lower, and a news conference in several hours. the federal reserve decision and the countdown continues. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> strong words from president biden about latin america putin, in an interview the president called him a killer, saying he would pay the price for alleged interference in the u.s. presidential election. the u.s. intelligence has concluded that putin ordered operations to hurt president biden's chances. mitch mcconnell says there's no chance republicans will tax hikes to pay for the infrastructure plan. mcconnell predict that democrats will use the process known as

reconciliation to get a tax hike through with a simple majority, the same process that passed the stimulus package. former president trump's net worth has fallen from $3 billion when he took office to 2.3 billion now. that's according to the bloomberg billionaires index. the pandemic that he promised would disappear is hovering around his company and the ride that got him impeached is ruining his brand. few industries in the u.s. have been hit as hard in the last year. in germany, chancellor merkel's advisers have cut the forecast and are warning about the recovery. saying europe's economy will shrink by 3.1%, down since last forecast. they say the recovery could be jeopardized. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am group to -- i amrita could

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jonathan: we have to talk about this bond market. good morning.

i'm jonathan ferro. here's your bond market. the 10 year treasury at one point, pushing 1.67. your 30 year at the level that we have not seen since the end of 2019, up three basis points. the equity market is lower, your nasdaq is off by 1.41. this is down one full percentage point. this is the story on the nominal yield. it's all about real yields off the back of a surge inflation expectation. real yields kicked in last september or so. lisa: with the 30 year yield spike, the best thing to know is that real yields are close to the highest level going back to the start of the pandemic. the idea being that the increase is not being driven by long-term inflation expectations but rather the expectations that yield will have to be higher as the u.s. sells more debt and the u.s. adjust to a higher pace of

growth. tom: right now on this fed day, we get perspective from a former governor the federal reserve system, randall kroszner is steeped in the history of chicago and all of the good work of the modern age. we have fought a pandemic war, and world war ii we have 14% inflation. in 1947, all of a sudden, 1% inflation six years later in 1953. the inflation of truman, can it inflation of powell where we get back to normal quicker than we think? randy: i do think we are going to be seeing some pressure. we certainly see some strong fiscal stimulus. and a lot of support from the fed. are we going to see numbers

anywhere close to what we just quoted on the high side? i don't think so. tom: we do see a boost in inflation. there's this fear that it's the 60's and 70's inflation. what is that likelihood? randy: this is the thing where we don't know. we are in the unusual situation where the central bank is trying to push up inflation expectations in this context of potential for a strong boom in the economy with the fiscal stimulus. but the question is, could inflation expectations become unanchored? they have been persistently below for the last decade. when you start moving them up, they continue to move up and that's the uncertainty. jonathan: i want to touch on your experience with the federal reserve, is this the correct approach, taking the lessons learned from the previous crisis and apply them to this one?

randall: some things are similar in some things are different. i think the fed has learned that it's important with liquidity. we created all these large-scale asset purchases and the lending program. we stood those up about a year ago, almost exactly a year ago and we provided that to the treasury markets, making sure we were avoiding a financial meltdown. that's important. what's new is the extent of the fiscal stimulus and the restriction on consumption was really policy induced. involving restrictions associated with the pandemic. when those come off, this is something we have not seen before. jonathan: i raise this because your former colleagues have been conditioned by the previous cycle to believe they need to run this. i'm wondering if you think they will be surprised by how quickly things snap back? randall: exactly.

that's why this is unusual. having consumption being pent-up because of policy choices making people stay home and concerns about infection. there's the rollout of the vaccine, people feeling more comfortable with policy restrictions being relaxed and unprecedented stimulus could stand by quickly. lisa: there's also a concern that holding the monetary conditions threatens stability over the near and long-term. the asset crisis inflate -- the asset price inflation is real and hot. at what point is this a financial stability risk that the fed can't absorb? randall: this is something they are thinking about, but it's not the main thing they are focusing on. they are focusing on making sure that we have a foundation for recovery. the last thing chairman powell wants to do is spook the markets and have conditions tightened dramatically as the markets turn

south before we see the boom coming. they save we have a boom, we will deal with it. that could be a good approach. it could also be one where you take a lot of risk. jonathan: -- tom: tell me about the multiplier. do we have any understanding of the multipliers of consumption and the rest of the equation? or is that a mystery at this time? randall: i think there's a lot of uncertainty and people make strong assertions about what so-called multipliers are, when the government spends a dollar how much does that turn into additional gdp. we don't have a lot of experience with this type of condition where you are poised for potentially big consumption. jonathan: we do have to leave it there. thank you sir.

we got a bit distracted because i'm going through some headlines from the e.u. leader. it's a bizarre situation over the astrazeneca vaccine. you have individual nations and governments going around and raising doubts not only about the efficacy of the vaccine but now the safety evident the last week or so. now the european leaders says that astrazeneca has under produced and under delivered. so you have the e.u. going to astrazeneca for under producing, but also raising questions from individual governments over the last week or so about the safety of the vaccine at the same time, without themselves taking responsibility for their mistakes they have made for the last 10 months. tom: i'm going to go out on a limb and say the questions of the safety are political experts

opining, not medical expert's but i stand corrected if i'm wrong. lisa: and the uk's looking pretty good, at least relative to how they have looked when it comes to brexit, considering that the european union has bungled vaccination rollouts. by all accounts, you have to think this is giving some support to the u.k. and their initiatives. jonathan: let's go in and look at these numbers before i weigh in. the e.u. should receive 55 million doses in q2. astrazeneca has promising another 70 million doses. this could get back on track. but the line you won't see in the united states, you won't hear this from medical experts anytime soon. a third covid wave is coming in europe. tom, that's the difference. tom: i agree. i looked at the great log work out of the financial times. i'm sorry, the united kingdom is

a massive success. lisa: he is dodging the brexit question. jonathan: i'm happy to admit that i'm dodging brexit. you can answer the question at home without me getting into trouble on a whole range of issues. equity down, yields up, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we will go ret -- grow rapidly. the challenge for the fed to change its own forecast. >> the point is to get the economy growing faster. >> it's a chronic underperformance and value that we've had for years and years unwinding. >> the fed's job is to deal with monetary policy. we are hearing more and more with them dealing with income inequality. >> i think they want a slightly steeper curve, but not indefinitely higher. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: