its own forecast. >> the central bank trying to push up inflation. >> the point is to get the economy growing faster. >> it is interest rates, it is underperformance that we have had for years. >> this positioning story in the treasury market. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. equity futures down 1.5%. that is the number of the morning. tom: it is the morning. a second leg up off the press conference. the landscape changes. if i had to look at one statistic, it is the real yield. the real yield has moved out two

full standard deviations to a new lesser negative yield, -.59. that is a huge deal. jonathon: it is no longer forecast-based, it is outcome-based. before, they were coming in early. now, they might come in late. tom: i did that yesterday when i looked at outcome-based. i grabbed onto that single sentence from the chairman. to me, it is massively exposed. the late great allan meltzer of carnegie mellon, they are going to wait and wait. the cover this morning says 2024. jonathon: goldman is with the ft e on 2024. he had a good news conference. lisa: i will say this.

what we are seeing right now is a resetting of expectations about what the fed will do or will not do to get involved in bond markets. on the one hand, they are saying we are going to run things hot. we don't care about what measures we get to when it comes to inflation or unemployment. let's see what we get and we can talk about it. on the other hand, they are not stepping in to cap yields. they did not see this move in yields as disruptive. jonathon: two points there. the forecast debt grows, for on employment, 450, that does not get it done. 350 on employment. it does not get it done. tom: patients -- patience. i am looking to april 28, june 16, maybe they get where john

herrman, maybe they get there. jonathon: maybe. i was see you in three years, lee said. lisa: incremental, maybe, but not when it comes to huge shifts in monetary policy where they are saying, this time it is different, no matter what until the end, 2023. jonathon: that tug-of-war does not go anywhere and it gets even more brutal as it progresses and we start to see the data they are forecasting. the naysayers who will not fold and are continuing to push back against the fed's new framework, that is going to get exacerbated when we see the data in the next several months. tom: we are going to do that data and we have a negative yield on the one-month generic government which is really extraordinary in the u.s. what i noticed yesterday is how chairman powell turned right when michael mckee mentioned -- turned white when michael mckee mentioned japan. jonathon: we talked to mike

mckee a little bit later. good morning worldwide. on the s&p 500, down 17, coming in .4%. the nasdaq is suffering once again. we will talk about that more little bit later. on the fx market, there it is in the bond market, 174, right now, 172, up by 8 basis points, yields heading higher. lisa: really driven by the real yield, not necessarily inflation expectations. meanwhile in the united kingdom, we are respecting a bank of england meeting and decision today. not a lot of fireworks, expect them to reiterate the messaging of jerome powell, perhaps they can have as good of a press conference. a lot of people agree with you. 8:30 a.m. and we get the initial jobless claims and continuing claims. it is interesting to see whether we see market improvements. also curious to see how much

people simply dismiss the data and still being noisy as they look toward the march jobs number as well as beyond. today, i am focused on this. tony blinken and jake sullivan heading to anchorage to meet with china. china saying they are hoping that biden and xi jinping can meet. china is asking for biden to roll back some of the trump era provisions, including some of iteris. -- including some of the tariffs. unlikely, given that the biden policy looks similar to the top policy. jonathon: turkey with a central bank decision in five minutes time. we are looking for a hike. yesterday, we had a massive hike from brazil. a height from brazil, a -- a height -- hike from brazil, a

hike from turkey. tom: you can really look worldwide at how emerging markets have been given pause and separated from developing nations. it brings up important i am meetings coming up. jonathon: we can see an 18% interest rate in turkey. let's turn to the treasury market. of 8 basis points to 172, of almost seven basis points, close to 250. joining us now is jim caron, portfolio manager. how much oxygen is left up here as yields drift higher? jim: i think a decent amount. based on what powell said yesterday where he seems to be inviting inflation and is holding a line. i saw yesterday, his press conference as a test of the fed's credibility. in the face of better data, better jobs, they held the line and said we are going to stay on

hold, nothing is changing. that is not their hardest test. their hardest test is going to come in three months time when they have to release another summary of economic expectations , economic projections. and then, they are going to have a monster q2. you're going to have job growth numbers and probably 10% growth in the second quarter. then, how are they going to hold the line at that point? if they do and seemingly that the fed is geared toward holding the line and being patient and not moving until 2024 or late 2023, that is going to float inflation pressures plus, you are going to get inflation figures that are going to reach about 2.6%. you are going to be a lot of these -- you are going to be at these key thresholds and then they're going to have to say, we are still going to hold the line.

that is what the market is going to be betting on. will they be as good in june as they were in march? tom: your charm is not only as a strategist, but also is losing money in a bond bear market. what is the behavior as christ lowered yield higher? -- as priced lower, yields higher? jim: this is a tough period for the bond market. yields are going up quickly. duration are very long, so you are getting negative total returns. here is the thing, after the first half of the year, i call it peak surprise. we have been surprised by better and better data throughout the year and we will continue to get good data. at some point in the second quarter, we hit that peak. the hard work really starts to begin where the measures for

inflation start to fall, the jobs rate comes into some form of normalcy, we are still playing catch-up. i think bond yields can settle down. it does not mean that they drop a lot. do not forget, credit spreads are still holding well. if you are a bond investor and you can strip out the interest rate risk, the duration rate -- duration risk, you can do pretty well because high-yield spreads are tighter on the year. eventually, emerging markets, once a stopped rising in the u.s., and they will at some point, i think they have further to go, but once they stop, then you start to get this risk parity and normalization starts to come in where people start to balance their portfolios with other assets and it is healthier for the market. we have to get through this painful period first and that is what we are going through. lisa: is there a fed put on the long and -- on the long end?

jim: i think it is conditioned on financial conditions. is there a fed put on the long end, technically no. the fed is telling us that rising rates are a reflection of a strong economy. i don't think the fed has any intention of doing any type of yield curve control. i believe chair powell was asked to that question and he pushed that aside and made us believe that that was not yet in the discussions. i don't think the fed is going to start to taper anytime soon either. that might be a 2022 saying that they may do. the yield curve is about 158, 160 basis points. that is not the historical -- you can get to 225, you can get to 250, that is not unprecedented and that may be what is in store for us.

i don't think we are going up that fast, but i think it would happen. jonathon: always great to catch up. jim caron, morgan stanley portfolio manager. here is a story for many people, the on luke -- the outlook for growth is that it. -- the outlook for growth is better. a stellar run-up in the last several months. the nasdaq 100 down by another full percentage point. the story is in equities. tom: the real story for all waking up across america is a second leg up in yields starting about 2:37, 2:47 a.m. there has been a real overnight adjustment. jonathon: in the asian session as the u.s. wakes up, good morning to you. we are up 8 basis points on the 10-year to 172. on the 30 year, we advance to

249. negative on the s&p and much more so on the nasdaq 100. coming up, a man who has stayed bullish through it all. it is tony dwyer, joining us in the next hour. from new york city this morning, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. >> talks between the u.s. and china will last the next few days. aging once a meeting between president biden and xi jinping. bloomberg has learned that they would like the summit around birthday on april 22 to show both leaders want to fight climate change. president biden is close to his goal of delivering 100 million vaccine shots in his first 100 days in office. it could have been a day, more than a month ahead of time. the u.s. has reached the pace of 2.5 million vaccinations per day. jerome powell has made a clean

break with the old fed. he stressed that the central bank will not raise interest rates until the u.s. economy shows it has fully recovered. he abandoned a cardinal rule of monetary policy to preemptively strike against inflation. it is a significant shift. in myanmar, the military regime has found more charges on the ousted leader. she is being charged with violating an anticorruption law and could face 15 years in prison. she has not had access to lawyers since february 3. google is planning major investments in the u.s. they say they was been more than $7 billion and create at least 10,000 full-time jobs here this year. more than $1 billion will be spent in california. there also will be data center expansions. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪

♪ >> the state of the economy in two or three years is highly uncertain and i would not want to focus too much on the timing

of a potential rate increase that far into the future. that is how i would think about the fcb. jonathan: chairman powell pushing back in a big way. i'm jonathan ferro. good morning. your bond market looks like this , on the 10 year treasury, north of 170 a clean break a few hours ago. the 10 year now of 8 basis points. the highs of the session, 174th. on the equity market, down .4%. on the nasdaq, much lawyer -- much lower. tom: i want to emphasize the real yield. that negative number, becoming less big. an important statistic this morning. there are shocks, that is what happens when you speak with mr. stephanopoulos at abc.

the president did that and made headlines about the leader of russia. one of the advisors of the secretary of state's victoria nuland, she had a wake-up call yesterday. victoria nuland, did they know this was coming, these comments of president biden about mr. putin? >> i gotta admit, i am not sure how many people in the state department knew that these comments were coming. it was pretty clear that biden was looking to push back on putin much more significantly than trumpeted. in a big picture sense, as significant as these comments were, it was not entirely shocking for him to take a much more aggressive stance. tom: we have so many other topics to look at right now. do we expect more sanctions? what will be the actions behind

the words of the president? jack: they have not detailed further sanctions, but the biden administration has made it clear that a lot is on the table when it comes to russia. that is also an area where there is often republican support in congress for taking a harder stance. no news directly today on sanctions on russia, but certainly something that is considered a possibility. jonathan: is this special treatment reserved for the leader or is this a new standard that will spill over to what he thinks about the chinese leader, the crown prince in saudi arabia? jack: a lot of people were disappointed with the response in terms of specific heart actions -- specific hard actions. there is expected to be a conversation about human rights abuses in china, something biden

officials have mentioned in broad terms in its upcoming china meeting. but they have not laid out any specific, concrete actions that they are going to take leading into this china meeting. there is at times some inconsistency not only in the words biden chooses to use about foreign leaders, but it is not always immediately tied to a follow-up statement saying, and here is what we are going to do about it. jonathan: the spokesperson for the kremlin speaking right now on a conference call saying the comments from the president of the united states are very bad and the president of united states clearly does not want to develop relations. talk to me about the relations that could develop in alaska. jack: chinese officials have tried to describe this as a high-level strategic meeting. it does seem like they will come

in with more requests than the u.s., which is focused on -- they have said they will at least touch on human rights abuses, but potentially not in a way that blows up the meeting. the question is do chinese officials get this to be positive enough so that they get the second meeting in april that they have requested. clearly, it is something where u.s. officials are expecting to have at least a slightly uncomfortable conversation. the question is, to what extent. lisa: is it going to be uncountable when it has to do to the economy -- when it has to do with the economy or with the political tensions in the south sea, taiwan in particular. one report recently saying, this is becoming the most dangerous point in the world for a possible war that involves the u.s. and china. jack: probably, based on biden's

actions so far, more in a geopolitical sense than an economic sense, considering we had not gotten indications that he is looking to totally overhaul trump's tariff policy toward china. he has been somewhat hands-off in the early days of his administration in that regard. there has been a broad effort to reset foreign policy in asia. you saw with the meetings earlier this week, to try to take the old stance, maybe a little bit more tough talk toward adversaries and adversarial governments and reassured traditional allies. in the geopolitical sense, china is not someone that biden, or xi jinping is not someone that biden wants to go out of his way to defend, but there is not an

indication of a huge economic reset just yet. lisa: tough talk does not mean anything we have money into china and expanding operations there. do you expect biden to push back on that or talk with china at all about some of the investment in supply chains and infrastructure in the u.s. to counter that pulled toward china? jack: sure. that is not something where the biden administration seems to have ignored those issues. i do think it is notable that it has not been a first 100 days priority to completely pull back from some trump policies economically toward china. but when it comes to 5g development, that kind of thing, that is a bipartisan concern in washington. i would not be surprised if that came up. it will continue to be a concern

going forward. jonathan: great to catch up. industrial policy, that is what it is going to come down to. getting these companies to set things up in the united states can be costly. lisa: people are talking about possible tax cuts for companies that decide to bring their supply chains home. how did they do that at a time when they need to raise money and how do they do that when they are trying to shift the focus to lower income america? you are trying to find a coherent message. it is going to be a tough 2021. jonathan: it is difficult. but some of the first push, they have not gone, they are still there. tom: there is no question about that. you know the bipartisan nature of our tone on china. absolutely no evidence of the song and dance of bringing jobs back to america, this has been a generational trend we have seen. does it get worse? i don't know. i don't understand how you

incentivize jobs back to america. jonathan: we will discuss the labor market with adam posen and the big shift in the federal reserve in the last 12 months. yields higher, equities lower. this is bloomberg.

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♪ jonathan: from new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am jonathan ferro. equity futures lower. south on the s&p. the nasdaq 100, down by one percentage point. take down -- tech down. here is the breakdown in the 10-year, of 8 basis points. your new post pandemic high, 174th. chairman powell validated a steeper curve. your two year spin, nicely

anchored. we caught up with jim caron who said there is still oxygen up here. we have to talk about something else. the transatlantic divide that is emerging, if you want to push that through, this is how you capture that story. this is the german 10-year versus the u.s. tenure, a big selloff this morning. what you see in germany, a very small one. this spread is wider. around 200 braces -- 200 basis points. look at how far that can go and what we saw back in 2018, around 280 basis points. has this move only got started? tom: the first thing i looked at this morning is the 20 year that has gone into a positive yield. we will see a little bit of that with your behind the accommodation -- with europe behind the accommodation at the moment.

terrific analysis of the monetary theory behind all of these historic events. i want to take the alphabet soup of aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and throw it out the window. what is the theoretical book of chairman powell? adam: he has actually been pretty honest. you work on observables. that means that you do print of policy. you focus on unemployment, by labor force participation, what constitutes unemployment. you are assuming that expectations are well anchored. you put those things together which you stated clearly. tom: what is so important is the

unknown and with the confidence of history and the boom out of world war ii with all of that inflation, as supply comes on, we behave differently with excessive economic growth. what will be the nation's behavior given a 7% gdp? adam: i think 7% gdp is not going to have that big an effect. i realize this is contrarian. this is what the fed is betting on, this is a one-time surge. the overshoot is not persistent and the expectations are not persistent. my colleagues are emphasizing two things. first, that the inflation is going to be high as a result. second, that the fed's ability to ride this out without raising

rates and to raise rates without breaking stuff is limited. that is where the debate is. not how much inflation we are going to get. the final one i will make is my own point, is that the savings rate i expect to stabilize at a much higher rate before the pandemic, just as household saving rates stabilized after the global financial crisis. all this talk about pent up saving, it is not ultimately going to lead us, spend, spend, spend. jonathan: i think that final point can be the difference between 6% gdp growth and 7% and 8% and the difference between inflation going higher. how do you come to that conclusion about where the savings are, how they will be spent? adam: thank you for saving that -- saying that. there are two components.

there is pent-up demand in one key area of services, which is healthcare, we are already starting to see that. there is a lot of stuff that was forgone during the worst of the pandemic. i expect a huge surge in healthcare spending. that is up to 20% of the economy. when we think about the savings rate, if you look at the history of major shocks, you look at the history of the 1920's and 1930's, the global financial crisis, what tends to happen is it shoots up, comes back down, a messy dynamic. think about young people we all know who either have seen opportunities go away or known people who had the bad luck to graduate high school and college in the wrong year. that kind of world is starting just as our grandparents.

i expected savings rate to be up as it stabilizes after this crisis. jonathan: this is probably one of the tv labels for your outlook and i don't think it has been talked about enough. lisa: the idea of spending and how much of excess savings will be pumped into the economy. there is also a question of the friction in getting people back into the labor market. there was a project syndicate essay talking about how a lot of jobs were eliminated much faster because of the pandemic and these are the low cost, low skill jobs. how much is the administration doing to ameliorate these frictions through training programs, so that people on the lower end of the spectrum can get back into the workforce quickly? adam: i think we had to separate two things. you are right to focus on this issue because this is what economists refer to as scarring and this is a question for inflation, how much of the workforce can come back to full employment. i would say it is a mixed bag.

on the one hand, what we are seeing is labor force scarring in the u.s. actually is not as bad as the scarring of children not in school or people missing medical care. the ability of low income people in the u.s. being given the opportunity to find work is high. new research done by my colleagues have been looking at entrepreneurship and we have seen a surprising surge in entrepreneurship. it does not mean people should not look after them, but there is more resilience there and less scarring. when you look at what is in the american rescue package, whatever it is called, the big package that just came from the biden administration, most of it is short-term and some of it is going to be about trying to extend the lifetime of jobs in restaurants and hospitality and

airlines that might not be there for the long-term. and so, it goes the other way. we still need more investment, a couple percentage in gdp a year in what the europeans call active market labor policies, helping to match people and get them more mobile to jobs. lisa: this is a really poor and point. it seems to me you are saying -- this is a really important point. this is an important point, the idea that the infrastructure point is an extra stimulus to pull the economy out of the pandemic, but rather a shift in the economy and a way for the u.s. to win in a world that is evolving toward 5g and a different technology. is that accurate in terms of what the u.s. ought to be doing with infrastructure? adam: you are right. what i am trying to get across is the infrastructure, such things as building bridges,

shifting the composition and the carbon intensity of our economy, that infrastructure is a long-term issue. things that people can count on, things that businesses plan for, and that requires financing. that is not going to be paid for out of debt on an ongoing basis. even if we would like to pay with debt for high return projects, because of what we had to spend for the pandemic recovery, we've got to look at how to finance that for the long-term. if we get back to a world where there is not going to be a recurrence in pandemics and we have a process in congress that works, then we can start talking about these are net positive investments and so, we can finance them over time. jonathan: we always enjoy your time. great to catch up.

adam posen, president of the peterson institute. this is what we're trying to do this morning, what has changed, just times. unprecedented drawdown. we need to understand the recovery, what changes and what doesn't. tom: i want to give you a snapshot. i want to comment. this is the most important chart right now, it is killing me to tell you that this is the pendulum of disinflation from lisa abramowicz. this is the 10 year versus the five-year guess on inflation. it is unprecedented and it screams transitory. lisa brought us to this two weeks ago. it was featured in fed coverage last night. abramowitz has absolutely nailed the transitory chart at the moment. jonathan: lisa has been on top of it for several weeks. tom: it is killing me, saying this.

jonathan: it says perfectly, the view of the fact, the whole story that this market is pushing back against the federal reserve. things are very much in sync with what the fed is looking for the area lisa: what i struggle with is the path of disinflation. is it easy, is it gradual, do we have the big pocket inflation and a reset toward a low-inflation environment, or is this a more violent reset where we have zombie companies, some of the equity conditions that come off? these are important questions because it has to do with investment pieces over the long-term. when you talk about yields going at one person on the 10 year by the end of the year, you talk about a new inflationary environment. jonathan: that is also a divide and talking going on as well. i think this is about forecast is and we are on the same page about what those numbers could look like, and then it becomes

about psychology. how do people react to those numbers when they come through in march, in april, in may. tom: we are going to get those numbers and they are going to change the conversation. jonathan: equities down 14 points on the s&p 500. from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden could meet with china's president, if things work out in meetings the next two days in alaska. bloomberg has learned that beijing would like the summit to take place around april the 22nd. the two leaders are focused on combating climate change. a russian legislator demanding that president biden apologized to vladimir putin for calling him a killer. the speaker called the

president's remarked a watershed in relationship -- in relations. moscow has called this ambassador to the u.s. for complications. americans who have put off filing their taxes are getting breathing room. the internal revenue service is delaying the deadline to may 17. marc casper deadline was also delayed. -- march's deadline was also delayed. spending bonuses for senior executives. credit suisse was forced to suspend funds it invested when it became apparent they could no longer value them. the world's largest asset manager black rock has already made bold statements about climate change. their policies regarding human rights as well as biodiversity and deforestation. black rock says it may vote against corporate directors who act on these issues -- who

failed to act on these issues. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> in a country like the united states, if you are born in a

poor family, it takes about five generations to get to the average income in your society. clearly, societies are reproducing, not producing inequality. jonathan: strong words from her majesty of jordan. good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. the bond market this thursday morning, approaching 173. we have already seen 174. of almost nine basis points. a real breakout and a real break down in the equity market. the nasdaq 100, down around .4 percentage points. we talk a lot about dm central bank. bank of england coming up next. in the next 20 minutes, they can follow suit as well. tom: i really agree with that. em has a significant fragility's

versus the story we are all hearing in america as we see the bank of england in a few day to -- a few days. jason farley briefs us from johns hopkins university. what i see is an overconfidence. let's call it american exceptionalism. we have the best vaccines, the best program and on and on. how do we avoid the sadness that we see in europe? jason: certainly. your analysis is spot on. there is lots of hope and lots of optimism. that is a good thing. we know that behavior is driven by trying to remove anything that prevents us from living our lives. what we are seeing is the beach is full during spring break, we are seeing states reopen all because of these great vaccines reduce cases in some states and not all and the opening up of the economy.

those all seem like an appropriate reaction when you have vaccine and appropriate treatments. but we are seeing cases increase throughout the european union. italy going back on lockdown, new variants across the united states, it is certainly not the time to be rolling back precautions lisa:. lisa:let's take a look at the u.s., there is a question whether the number of cases is the statistic to watch, or the number of deaths which has fallen off and we have seen that as the vaccination rate continues to increase among the highest risk individuals. is it ok for people to throw a precocity because the highest risk individuals are not going to pass the hospitals and that was the real source of the social distancing measures put in place? jason: it is a fair question. as we see deaths continue to fall, we know cases can continue, despite vaccinations.

they are effective in preventing severe cases and deaths. the problem at hand right now is the haves and have-nots. many affluent communities have access to vaccine while black and brown communities have struggled to find access and not have access. we have seen once an emerging and continued disparity if states continue to open up, while they have communities who have received vaccine and have not are continuing to suffering from continued cases and continued deaths. lisa: what is the solution to that? jason: the biden administration is getting more shots and arms. we passed 2 million doses effectively. we are past the 100 million dose set by the administration. the local jurisdictions, i am not talking about at a state

level, county by county, or city by city really needs to determine what the caseloads are, who is being impacted, where is vaccine and really target communities where they are seeing increased amounts of hospitalizations and deaths in those communities with greater amounts of vaccine because that is where the virus is, that is where it is circulating and we need to think about letting the local epidemiology drive our vaccination campaign. tom: i was shocked by an image. i'm going to give credit to cnn, someone clearly maybe 22 years old getting the vaccine. mississippi opens, alaska opens the cherokee nation, not figure out what to do with all of the syringes because nobody wants a vaccine right now. what is the catalyst to get to your regional and local outcome? jason: certainly. we are still battling a lot of vaccine hesitancy. some places have surplus of vaccine. other places are still very --

really trying to think about the redistribution of vaccine. if it is not being used locally, redistributing it. secondly, we have seen recent emergence of facebook and other social media companies trying to get on the bandwagon with communication messaging around the vaccine and trying to battle misinformation. we need more of that across the board. tom: i don't mean to interrupt, but do we need corporations to take over vaccination? is that efficacious? jason: when we think about large pharmacy chains, they have certainly been enrolling and participating in vaccine administration. although small volume in each individual store. if you are talking on the corporate level saying that employees need to be vaccinated wired to returning to work and offering vaccine programs through individual employers, that is a great strategy for the

employee. it also helps to unpack the health department's requirements for vaccination. the problem is getting enough doses to put in the hands of corporations would be the first hurdle that would have to be overcome and obviously corporations are not sitting with mass vaccination personnel. that is a second hurdle that we need to be overcome. jonathan: a quick question if i can, do you think we have a sufficient acceptance issue right now, and if we do, why aren't we aggressively widening the poll, the eligibility to allow people who want to get in line? jason: that is a question -- back to tom's question about the 20-year-old getting the vaccine, it is important that we are not placing judgment. we don't know individual health circumstances. they may fall in high risk categories. it is critical that we expand as appropriate in local

jurisdictions. if you are not seeing long lines in the phases you are in in your local jurisdiction, the expansion of those populations is the right way to go. we have to get shots in the arms as fast as possible. jonathan: always great to catch with you. your daily average, just to bring you the numbers, 2.4 7 million doses in the last seven days. terrific numbers. i agree, we have to avoid putting guilt on those in the mind to go and get the vaccine. it is so important. in the next couple of weeks when we open up eligibility, people should feel fine getting a vaccine. i hate the fact that 12 months ago, people were killed-tripped -- people work guilt -- people were guilt-tripped into not getting the vaccine. tom: everybody -- i've got an opinion, you've got an opinion. jonathan: from new york city

good morning. i am jonathan ferro. coming up, tony dwyer. yields of 8 basis points. your equity market breaking down 12 points. the s&p 500 down about .3%. this is "bloomberg surveillance."

>> we will grow very rapidly this year. we challenge the fed changes on forecast. >> the central bank is trying to push up expert -- inflation expectations paid -- expectations. >> chronic underperformance is trying to unwind. >> a positioning story and the treasury market. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new york city and our audience worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. there it is right now, 1.74 on tens. tom: getting up the intraday chart. new highs today. this started it to: 30 7