>> we will grow very rapidly this year. we challenge the fed changes on forecast. >> the central bank is trying to push up expert -- inflation expectations paid -- expectations. >> chronic underperformance is trying to unwind. >> a positioning story and the treasury market. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new york city and our audience worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. there it is right now, 1.74 on tens. tom: getting up the intraday chart. new highs today. this started it to: 30 7 a.m. --

at 2:37 a.m. a move off of what chairman powell wrote yesterday. jonathan: the green light for this curve to go steeper. the federal reserve committed to sit on the front end. tom: i'm going to go back to the language early in the press conference where he said he is outcome. outcome-based to me is wait and wait and it's a massively exposed fed. if you read here allan meltzer, any frontline economist, all that means they will wait to see the data. >> those forecaster something else. lisa: 6.5% of the growth expectation. looking at full employment by the end of next year and still no rate hikes. a question, at one point -- what point will they care? it has not led to a material tightening in financial conditions but everyone will be watching credit spreads and

other signs of possible tightening. jonathan: s&p 500 lower. emerging markets starting to see a move underway. yesterday was brazil with a 75 basis point height. this morning in turkey with a 200 basis point move and dollar lire is making a move lower. tom: this is a change of the certitude of international investment x number of months ago. we saw this six or seven weeks ago and it continues where e.m. just is not participating. jonathan: there is comfort in america at the federal reserve. let's get to the price action this morning. what a couple of days it's been in this market. let's just start from 25,000 feet. yields up nine basis points. 170 -- 1.7330 right now.

through much of this morning lisa the nasdaq 100 down in and around one percentage point. lisa: continuing that correlation. we haven't seen that continue this morning. one thing i want to highlight real quick is a question that the fed did not address about bain capital relief. we are expecting to hear something from that. how is that adding to the pressure we are seeing. i am going to steal from you because -- this fantastic phrase. you said is fed light and that is basically what we are expecting. the increase in yields is a positive indication of expectations going forward. not indicating they will take additional actions. a: 30 a.m. we will begin those jobless claims to see whether or not we are seeing ongoing progress in the labor market. noisy data, unclear fraud and other issues that have created turbulence here. nonetheless, the trend is clear.

things are getting better, albeit very high with the expectation jobless claims prayed i am interested to see what happens between the u.s. and china meeting. tony blinken, jake sullivan heading to anchorage to meet with chinese representatives. curious to see what they will say with his back to 5g and tech initiatives to counter what we've seen in china especially daytime of supply chain construction. jonathan: lisa mentioned a number there that's important not just to gloss over. 700,000 initial jobless claims prayed every single week we talk about it on a thursday morning. 700,000 is a number -- crazy number to still be talking about. >> very high marks among the people we talked to over the general tone of the conference. what i would say, tony dwyer

said four times in one interview , data dependence. we are hugely data-dependent now after the middle of this 2021. jonathan: you wanted to punch him? he joins us now. great to catch up. the question will be asked one million times, when does this become a bigger problem for financial conditions? tony: i would kiss you right on the forehead. it is stunning to me that somehow we are surprised that the fed has done exactly what they said they were going to do for the last six months. every time powell is on tv and most of his governors including the vice chair said he wants inflation above 2% for a full

year before they think about raising rates somehow are baffled by the fact they did not live. they have been very clear in their messaging. the market and people like me trying to influence them before the meeting and they do what they said they're going to do. so the question becomes is lisa hit it spot on. it is not about the level of rates, is it 1.74, 1.25, people keep saying whatever the level they think it's going to be is it what happens to financial conditions because the real negative impact is when credit begins to shut down and money availability lessons. that's not the case. jonathan: we've got a whole set of -- tom: we have a whole set of people like you encouraged to be in this market on day one. your core raison d'etre is if

you don't see a recession stay in the market. or than any other time i've ever seen we are light years from a recession. what do you presume for our viewers and listeners to be the information flow for corporations into the equity markets as we go to the fourth of july? tony: it will be about massive earnings improvements and reopening with the economy. you and i and john and probably not lisa, have been through a whole town of cycles. just think of the last two cycles. the last two cycles after the.com crash and subsequent recession and course the great financial crisis, you get this massive move, like a 50% or even higher including this one. and then you go into 2004 and 2010 after that move.

you go into volatility based on what the market is doing with interest rates. i read my notes from 2004 and 2010, the first half of those two years were volatile. you it upside percent -- up 5%, down 5%. the gain came at the end of each year. it came because of her earnings. because the interest rate volatility began to have and earnings began to surge. lisa: he will be very flattered. -- were very impressed i should say pre-there's a question about just -- not just the earnings or fundamentals, but valuation. others got it right and said the note -- this is the nasdaq has evaluation problem. they look less good, when the

user to care about that? tony: i've already cared about that. all these people looking like i had 10 heads last summer i was overweight on the cyclicals. it feels -- if you'll sink it as global recovery. we've not favored those america cap high multiple stocks, the stay-at-home stocks. we believe this economic expansion and in -- we are early in the economic expansion. we just came out of a recession. we are still officially in a recession. so when do you really want to get out of cyclical stocks and back into the big defensive names, when you think you're going to go into a recession. that literally is years away. that doesn't mean like i said before, and the first half of this year it will be marked by volatility. i also expect down hills like 5%

to 10% corrections on the nasdaq. jonathan: pulling back from equities wholesale is one point, but pivoting back from the cyclicals and back into growth is a different one. when growth expectations peak in the next several months we have to think about what the senate -- what they are looking at. that's a growth equity friendly story isn't it? tony: we will see. we have no idea what the interest rate outlook will be next year. so what will look like will depend on what's happening in the market rates especially corporate credit in 2021 and 2022. i am very careful to make these brand projections. he is one of the few people i listen to. he's not just been right the way he looks at it is very interesting. it is very hard to make a case absent expectations of another shot down.

or sniffing and slowdown in global economic activity that you will earn your way into some of these multiples. you pulled forward a lot of those gains. jonathan: a policy to be -- great to catch up. then we have to finish where we started that conversation. this fed is doing exactly what they told you they would do. what's interesting about these forecasts now is they could have a stabilizing effect through the next several months because they are already out there forecasting above 2% inflation and telling you what they won't do. tom: the equity market i think has been unrepresented. i just looked at my portfolio. down 24% on my austrian piece from where i bought it. i wanted to lengthen my duration

and it's down. jonathan: i would invite you in every single month to see the opposite. there is value in there. tom: jonathan: i can -- tom: i can't spell duration but i went for it. jonathan: your equity market heading lower. good morning. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> talks between the u.s. -- if talks between the u.s. and china go well in alaska, potential meeting between resin a biden and xi jinping next month. bloomberg has learned the chinese would like the summit around earth day on april the 22nd to show both leaders want to fight climate change. president biden is close to his goal of delivering 100 million coronavirus vaccine shots within his first 100 days in office and it could happen today.

more than one month ahead of time. the u.s. reached a pace of 2.5 million vaccinations per day. the house is set to vote on two immigration bills would provide a path to citizenship for millions of people living in the u.s. without legal status. it will deal farmworkers and young undocumented immigrants known as dreamers. democrats had hoped to offer up more ambitious legislation that disappeared with the surge of migrants that have arrived on the southern border. in myanmar, the military regime has put more charges on the ousted leader. she has been charged with violating an anticorruption law and could face 15 years in prison. google planning major investments in the u.s.. the company says it will spend more than $7 billion to create at least 10,000 full-time jobs this year. with an one billion workers -- one million workers in google's

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>> fiscal policy overall will have really helped us to avoid

much of the scarring we were concerned about the beginning. i think that is just the size and speed with which congress has delivered with the cares act and since then has -- it is going to wind up very much accelerating the return to full employment. jonathan: the fed staying the course. good morning. here is the price action this thursday morning. we look something like this in the equity market. down by 1.26%. in the bond market we saw north of 1.74 earlier on 10. on 30 we had a break. equities down, yields higher. jonathan: ian posting moment -- tom: ian publishing moment to go say now watch.

you wonder if we will see a reset of that 2%, to and a quarter percent. jonathan: the chairman was comfortable with 1.60. the outlook is getting better. these higher yields are consistent with a better outlook in america and also consistent more broadly financial consistent -- this fed has not changed its message. tom: they look at what they do with the federal reserve, understanding that there can be exhaustion's shocks. the president of the united states had words of the leader of russia. kevin cirilli joins us. our chief correspondent in washington. did you see this coming? did you see his comments to stephanopoulos coming? kevin: i did not see it coming. this was a marked escalation in the rhetoric that president biden used to address russia.

it comes at the most pressing week so far in his administration on geopolitics. the nation's top diplomat is traveling on his first actual traveling trip as secretary of state, meeting with counterparts in japan and then later will head to alaska to meet with beijing counterparts, whether it is russia or china, this is an escalation in terms of the focus of the new foreign policy of this administration. tom: what will be the response? i mentioned victoria nuland and others at the white house, very experienced, assisting him in messaging foreign policy. how will they respond to what was brought yesterday? kevin: as this moves forward, i was on capitol hill yesterday and spoke with senator kevin cramer. senator kevin cramer is one of the -- the only republican who urged former president trump to

stay in the paris climate accord . he said to me something that stayed with me which is that on russia as well as china, it is becoming low hanging fruit. he said this not during the course of our interview but still on the record. he said the issue with china in particular it -- has become low hanging fruit republicans and democrats. it means they all agree on it. it means there is knocking to be a policy fight over it. that is a marked difference from when i first started covering these topics back in the obama years. lisa: low hanging fruit at least in the approach. but not necessarily policy. 0 kevin: on policy. lisa: in terms of agreeing on the general tone, but what i want to go to specifically is some of the supply chain issues we've seen and how you direct supply chains out of places like china perhaps bring them either back home or redirect them to

make them more stable is a growing number of companies talk about the global chip shortage and supply chain issue. how much is this feeding into his these conversations and how much unity is there on that discussion? kevin: that's where there is disagreement. on rare earth minerals. north dakota has a plethora of rare earth minerals. if you go to napa valley, they're also rare earth minerals there. a lot of the rare earth minerals are on federal land or on national park ground. so that's where you run into some botching of the political heads. australia has a lot of rare earth minerals. you can see some redirection there. when democrats are talking about raising the corporate tax rate or tweaking some environmental standards from the republican perspective, they would argue

that that is a bit too difficult and will drive away investment as well as the ability to have too much -- too much to clear regulatory hurdles. jonathan: high level diplomacy used to be well orchestrated, the outcome was predetermined. that changed with president trump. as we go to these talks in alaska and beyond, what is the outcome you are expecting? have the diplomats already had the talks? is that the impulsive way we saw with president trump? kevin: republicans would say trump was able to make the china issue front and center. democrats would say it was reckless and the trade war costed american farmers. i think what you will see this week in particular is the sizing up of the situation, reviewing the situation, and assessment of where things stand. that's what the secretary and

his team will be looking to do. i think the olympics become a political chip. i heard yesterday from one prominent lawmaker on background who said they ultimately do think the u.s. will participate in the olympics, but it is a bargaining chip in these ongoing continued talks. jonathan: something the chinese communist party is sensitive to. meeting around earth day. do you think they think the west is naive? is that the approach here? do you sense any of that? kevin: with respect to their sensitivities, i think maybe -- i think they understand there is a recalibration occurring, especially in the post-pandemic world. jonathan: good to catch up. kevin cirilli in washington, d.c. if you are tuning in, here's the bond market.

yields of nine basis points. the 30 is at 2.50. tom: i think the equity market down 1.2%, yet it is down, but with that yield move i think it would be down even more. jonathan: big moves already of the last month. tom: we had a 33,000 front on dow yesterday. you mentioned bank of america as well paid -- as well. jonathan: banks rallying, tech stocks down. lisa: cyclicals keep going hard. i wonder about the morgan stanley call around 1.70, 1.72, they see some appeal in duration again. you wonder when that comes into the market. jonathan: -- tom: do you think they should double up on the austrian? jonathan: i think you should

give us your investment advice and we can do something else. instead of me giving you mine. wells fargo investment at a global fixed income strategy -- head of global fixed income strategy. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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♪ jonathan: for new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance, here's the price action, this is going through the movers and just a moment. the nasdaq is up by 1.24%. the outlook is right. growth is less scarce. we are also looking at the bond market. let's go through this quickly. this is the higher session on the 10 year maturity today. this is up by almost 10 basis points. 261 is pushing this now on a 30 year. this is up nine basis points. the spread here between twos and tens. widest we have seen since the summer of 2015. there is so much talk about credibility of the federal

reserve. this is a developed market central bank. the e.m. central bank. they are trying to buy now. there are concerns about deficits, upside risks of inflation. they are responding to it. brazil had a high yesterday, turkey had a high this morning at 200 basis points. that interest rate is higher and higher and the lira is stronger than the dollar. this really emphasizes the complexity of the global economy right now. we talked about the transatlantic spread, now we have to talk about the dm-em spread. the fed has the luxury of waiting. the e.m. central banks do not have that luxury. turkey this morning and russia decides tomorrow. jonathan: -- tom: foundational he had soft the vaccine news. they did a great job, but the bottom line is that e.m., and particularly brazil, when i look

at the brazil pandemic numbers, they are grim. jonathan: fields are out, for the right reasons in america. it's higher because the outlook is brighter. that can change. financial conditions can heighten -- tighten and we could have a different conversation. it's not a judgment about the future and where we are. where we are is a brighter outlook that the fed has endorsed. this market for big tech looks good. here is romaine. romaine: they could keep their foot on the shirt -- the short end of the curve. the multiples look good when you had a yield that was a lot lower where it used to be. you wake up this morning at 174 basis points and a real yield starting to give and people are looking at has low, alphabet, -- looking at tesla, alphabet, a

lot of those names moving are also financial stocks and energy. you have your bank of america moving higher here on the day. reopening trades moving as well. this leads to the question of do you play this more as a macro story? abroad are feta story? you saw williams-sonoma come out with earnings, comp sales were great at 5% to 6% above what the street was looking for. amc coming out and saying by the end of this week they are going to have all but about 23 theaters reopened. a lot of investors are gravitating to those things. it's not even about necessarily the fundamentals so much as it is about what you can find with some semblance of value and the price. tom: with a great bull market

and the dow at 33,000 come i think it was after the announcement on the fed, what we are doing is pricing in an economic boom. romaine: that's what you are pricing in. if you look previously, boeing, caterpillar, and a similar story yesterday with the s&p 500. these are the names getting bids today. this is not going to -- with the -- of the world. tom: i don't care. jonathan ferro wont to help me with my bracket, will you help me with my bracket? i have guns at get and purdue -- gonzaga and purdue. romaine: they will get far but they will lose in the end. they are going to lose. jonathan: i only ever hear about gonzaga every 12 months. on bloomberg they said you want to do your bracket and they said

gonzaga, where is that? tom: washington state. romaine: they are basketball crazy. you have to get up on it. jonathan: i will. right now. tom: john, do your bracket because mine will be worse. jonathan: i will give it to jamie because he knows what he's talking about. full disclosure. tom: right now, ryan railings -- brian railings is with us. this really summarizes what you do with price down. a wonderful conversation with george, at the reality of price down. how do you manage a bond exposure and the clipping of coupons with price down? brian: you have to be defensive in this market because the trends are clear.

take a step back, think about your portfolio mix. the bonds have really gotten being up recently, but there is still that defensive component of your portfolio. so to completely avoid them would introduce a lot of volatility which may be they could not tolerate. jonathan: i think they are also trying to understand how this will persist. let's go through the levels, the spreads between buns and treasuries. this is 175 on 30's right now. are you thinking about levels any what numbers are there in your head right now? brian: i think the trend could persist. nothing's changed. the fed did not change anything. we have this stimulus. this seems like a falling knife but at some point, investors will come back and find yields -- purchase yields.

in the long run it will look more attractive. i think the level is somewhere above 2%, maybe around 2.5 -- 2.25. jonathan: that will usually start to hit more risks broadly. but the credit has not seen that yet, this is a duration story. when do you see this broader competition? at what levels? brian: i think you are going to continue to see this play out. i would look for at least another 50 basis points or so and maybe to start dabbling. but there's no reason until something fundamentally changes, or we get to try to pick a top here in yields. lisa: to be defensive and fixed income, what does that mean when people say it's defensive to go

to risky bonds and have a high spread of yields above treasuries? brian: we are being defensive in the sense that we have pared back risk and some spread. it's not as attractive as it once was. it's not like we are negative on it, more neutral. but i think duration positioning. a lot of folks think we should go supershort in a market like this. i think that is risky as well. with the steeper yield curve you get some rolldown, intermediate term bonds. higher quality. you are not going to make a lot, but it will start to provide some returns that we have not seen in a while over time. and also counterbalance equity, which we really like. we get to the periods of risk. yields fall and we protect your

portfolio. lisa: that's an important point. you said you are reducing your allocation to risky credit, corporate bonds in particular on the risky end. is this saying you expect conditions to tighten on the yields of benchmark treasury yields which we have not seen, keeping the fed going with their policies? brian: brian: we could have got -- brian: we could gone too far, too fast. we are just going to a neutral stance. to overturn credit, this is paring back and taking some turns, the risk-reward is not what it used to be. the rest looks better on the equity side. lisa: -- jonathan: brian, great to catch up with you. we have spent time developing

this -- discussing this stash between joe biden and vladimir putin. mr. putin responding, speaking now, saying the killer comments are very bad. the president himself saying i wish you could -- i wish you good health. that's the message from the president of russia to the united states. he goes on to say it takes one to no one. we will work with united states in areas where we are interested. the u.s. will have to take us into account despite the insults. the context is important. the president of russia speaking with residents of crimea. tom: russia took back crimea in 2014 with many countries saying this is part of ukraine, it's a hugely sensitive issue with all involved. of course this goes back to 1783 when they took this back centuries ago. this is emotional. the key thing that i see, putin,

russians have a different to madigan moral code from the u.s.. i have no idea what this means. jon, i know that's you and me as well. i see in this context speaking to crimea, this is another shot at president biden. jonathan: absolutely, as these content -- as these comments come in, russians have a different genetic and moral code. and what happens next? we have the insults, what does the policy look like. not the fun and games, not the killer comments, the policy. we will get to that. good morning, alongside tom keene lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we are at 174 and your equity market is taking another leg

lower on the s&p 500. the nasdaq down 30. from new york city, current on bloomberg radio and seen on bloomberg television with yields higher and equities going much lower. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> a russian legislator is demanding that president biden apologize to let me putin, -- two president putin. saying this is a watershed in relations and unacceptable. president biden could meet with china's president jean jinping -- xi jingping. bloomberg has learned that beijing would like the summit to take place around earth day on april 22. the ideas to show that the two leaders can focus on combating

climate change. oil is on his longest run in decline in over a year. this is the fifth day in a row and the concern that the demand for recovery could stall after several european countries halted the rollout of astrazeneca's vaccine. more fallout at credit suisse. the swiss bank has added the asset management had. credit suisse was first to suspend funds, it invested in greenfield and when it became apparent he could no longer value them. and blackrock has already made bold statements about climate change. now plans to press companies about their policies regarding human rights as well as biodiversity. they may vote against corporate directives who fail to act on this issue. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.

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>> i would be concerned come i

think the bigger concern is what happens down the road if the federal reserve is really too slow to tighten monetary policy. if the fed is too slow to tighten monetary policy, at some point you have to catch up. that process could be not pleasant for financial markets. jonathan: monetary policy with bill dudley, the former new york fed president. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we have a picture of things now. we had a clean break at 175 a little earlier. here and now, 173.12. let's call it nine basis points up. in the fx market, the dollar is weaker. this is a leg lower, he s&p 500 is down at 26.

tom: i have done this for the program, lisa, john and i do not speak to each other. we are not planning it. i don't know what lisa's going to say, i don't know what john is gonna say. i broke the rule to tell jon i could not link russia into this 247 yield move. that changed 5-year note -- five minutes ago with nasdaq, futures are down on putin-buying in. >> we are linking the moves? tom: i think you have to. jonathan: you don't want to do the break in yields that we saw. tom: i think it was before -- lisa: the reason why we don't talk who knew -- don't talk is spontaneity? who knew. [laughter]

tom: it's also worth noting that we get lucky. i'm going to rip up the script. i know that lisa and john want to get to china with dan, he's our expert on sanctions. we have putin-biden, 800 70 miles between crimea and moscow. the genetic and moral code of sanctions. what sanctions are we going to see from the white house? >> we have seen sanctions related to the poisoning of navalny, the restrictions about to come into effect to restrict exports. the impending related to election meddling. i think the question of the market -- sanctions are designed to force a change in behavior. in russia they have been ineffective. if you think about where these programs began, trying to get russia to return to crimea, this

is not can happen. jonathan: you are right to bring up the middle of the last decade, we all remember covering here, so little has changed. and little has changed here, the energy relationship, specifically between germany and russia, that's consistent when it comes to russia, china, what can the u.s. do? what will it try to do? dan: it's unclear, there were moves to attempt to 14 nord stream 2 two. although frankly it's nearly completed. sanctions would have been moot. i think trying to get allies on side for human rights issues and trying to tie that back to the broader geopolitical agenda will be more productive if then trot -- productive than trying to go after the energy sector. it's clear that there was a missed opportunity on nord stream 2 two -- on nord stream

2. where there could have been allies to stop construction. lisa: let's move way from russia and go to china, we have that two meeting -- two day meeting in anchorage. is this going to be rhetoric again? the biden administrator and reiterating a lot of what trump said in their approach to china. dan: i have this vision of some opening like franca stanzas festivus where everybody airs grievances. you have sanctions on additional chinese lawmakers under the hong kong autonomy act for the further crackdown on the election process. you did last week have a win for chinese technology companies wherein an injunction was filed in a u.s. court, reversing the restriction investing on u.s. markets. but you also have shin jang and some of the human rights

sanctions being levied. i think the issue is how will china respond. they have filled out their own sanctions program and laws that enable penalties related to compliance for u.s. sanctions, domestically. i think looking for some sort of common ground is the best path forward. but there's quite a bit of room. jonathan: these sanctions come out and the policies change, he spent a lot of time with corporate multinationals to make sure they are and come liens area the ultimate goal for policymakers is to change behavior. it comes back to a question i know you have been asked many times. and increasingly recently. do you think sanctions actually work? dan: i do think sanctions work. but i think multilateral sanctions work. especially when it's talking about issues like human rights in china. this is where you could end up seeing much stronger

multilateral response to try to deal with the forced labor challenges in china. you saw yesterday a few other technology companies have suspended the use of some production manufacturing companies do forced labor in changing -- forced labor. you could see multilateral response were companies could voluntarily wind down reduction in a part of china that has been usually productive. you could see some movement. similar to the trump administration, the biden administration is trying to return to multilateralism. one of the best examples is getting iran to the negotiating table. that did get blown up in the last administration. tom: -- jonathan: it's great to catch up . thank you, dan. maybe the town has not shifted much, it is still

confrontational. but what has changed is the willingness to bring other people on board. tom: you are right to bring up the approach of president biden as well. i want to go to the futures. dennis is here, making it very clear that he sees the yields higher, the markets do not come down. he does not look for lower markets. 2% for him is a real tip point. jonathan: we have seen those huge moves. will this still be the case as we get to 180? 90? if you told a few people a few months ago with the financial condition staying loose, from 125 all the way to 175, i'm not sure many people would think that they would.

what we had in line with the high yields is a better outlook. the revisions to growth and better outlook with the fed. this is why you see financial conditions still loose. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

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in just 10 minutes a day. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor with aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. >> we are in the unusual situation where the central bank is trying to push out inflation expectations. we will continue to get good data. at some point we hit the peak. >> i expect the savings rate to stabilize at a much higher rate. >> the point is to get the economy growing faster. >> we are not late, we just came out and we are still officially in a recession. >> this is bloomberg in -- this is bloomberg: surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: