tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg March 19, 2021 2:00am-3:00am EDT
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annmarie: good morning. it is six clock a.m -- it is 6:00 a.m.. here's what you need to know. risk takes a hit after a spike in treasury yields. the nikkei slums is the bank of japan changes track on etf's among increased policy flex ability. germany and france are among eu nations resuming use of astrazeneca's vaccine today
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after endorsement by regulators. but paris heads back into lockdown. and talks to the united states and china dissent into bickering. very good morning to you. happy friday. we have made it to the end of a week, but what a session it was yesterday. massive one-day moves across a number of assets in this market. today, we finish off this busy week of central banks with a barrage of headlines coming out of the bank of japan, and that is where i want to begin, what is going on with the nikkei. the bank of japan saying they will only buy etf's that track topics. china taking a dip, down 2.7% on the csi 300. a lot of questions about being exposed to chinese equities, especially with the growth forecast out of the united states. also, bickering at the start of
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the meeting in alaska between the u.s. and china. 10-year gilts, 1.69%. we are holding below that peak we saw yesterday. commodities getting crushed yesterday, wti down 7%. brent this morning, $63.12. potentially too much inflation. some parts of europe are going back into lockdown. the vaccine is front and center when you look at europe. we want to begin with what is going on with the bank of japan. they are carving out more flexibility for stimulus. juliette saly joins us from singapore. a lot of this was flagged yesterday with local reports, but still very important what the bank of japan is doing today. juliette: absolutely. clarifying for the first time that they are not only going to widen the movement around their
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10 year bond yield target, but also for the first time on record putting that target on paper in their statement. they will widen that, as reported yesterday, to 2.5%. previously, it had been elated by the market it was around 0.2%, but it had never been explicitly said. they have also scrapped their $55 billion etf target. this is being seen as giving them more flexibility in the fight to stoke inflation, instead of buying etf's from the topix and not the nikkei. certainly, we did see a weakness coming through in the nikkei, but the topix rising. as you see higher yields coming through, what do you have? you have higher banking stocks, too. you would see some upside when flagged by the nikkei. if we take a look at the topics banking index, it is
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actually at its highest level since december 2018. as you can see, languishing behind some of the other peers on the index. annmarie: certainly. thank you for that recap, juliette saly. we will be hearing from the bank of japan governor haro heico kuroda. as you heard from the bank of japan, trying to stoke inflation, the inflation debate rumbles on around the world. listen to what ray dalio told us yesterday. >> there are two types of inflation. i just want to make this clear. we are used to one type of inflation, which is when the economy is too hot, there is a capacity constraint. and when demand presses up against existing capacity, prices rise. the big risk is of a monetary inflation that would come because there would be more sellers of bonds than there are buyers and the need for a lot of printing of money. annmarie: ray dalio.
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we also caught up with paul krugman. he rejects the threat of inflation getting out of control. take a listen. >> this always comes back to this fundamental asymmetry, where interest rates are at zero. if fiscal policy falls short, than the fed has a very hard time making up for that. if fiscal policy over shoots, the fed mechanically has very easy tools to use to bring ed in. we are into the question of whether the fed will be afraid to do what is necessary should this turnout to be a really huge boom. i am not particularly worried they will fall short. annmarie: you can watch more from that interview, plus a conversation with larry summers, on "wall street week." joining us is the senior portfolio manager at state street. thank you for joining us. i want to see if you can thread
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these stories together for us. all these banks saying they will tolerate higher bond yields. this has to do with them seeing economic growth and the world coming out of the recovery. do you think the central banks are getting it right? guest: when i was listening to mr. krugman, i think he was getting it right. the central banks are trying to target inflation. i think their reading is that inflation is relatively under control and they feel the bond markets will do what they want to do. but the problem for the bond market is they are looking at massive issuance coming at them. if you look at the u.s., they have a huge budget deficit and
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the stimulus coming through as well. the market is facing a gigantic digestion problem. if you are keeping rates at 0% in the short-term, it means you have to issue at the longer end, which means you have a lot to take on at a time when the economy is recovering really fast, which means you might get crowding out. and i think that is what the market is worried about. and that is not the equity market. -- that is what the equity market will worry about especially. annmarie: we will get to equities in a moment. i want to stay on the 10 year treasury. this is a note that has been tracked around the world, that hasn't locations for every asset. we are at 1.7% this morning. how quickly could we see 2%? guest: you know, our feeling is
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1.7% to 1.9% is a good equilibrium level. whether it over shoots, i don't know, but there will be a point where it will be quite advantageous to borrow short and buy long. but where we reach that equilibrium, the timing, is very hard to pinpoint. annmarie: you mentioned equity, and we saw the big names selloff yesterday. i was a little bit more surprised about what we saw in commodities, because usually commodities are a good inflation hedge. do you think this is recalibration in the equity market, or is this potentially the end of the super cycle and the full and of looking at -- the full end of looking at growth stocks? guest: oh no, i don't think it is the end of looking at growth stocks. we are going into a period of
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massive innovations. i think that the tech companies, and i am talking about the real semiconductor, the real brains of the economy, those are going to continue to do well because a lot of groups are rewiring themselves. there is a massive push in investments to re-modernize, to digitize. i think that segment of the market continues to do very well. but things do not go in a straight line, so there has to be a little bit of hoards before we resume. on commodities, i am not sure we are in a big super cycle, to be honest with you. you have to think about the efg side, environmentals.
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some are wary about going full out on some of these areas, like oil. annmarie: esther baroudy, i hear a lot of people say that, we do not always move in a straight line. senior pro-folio manager at state street. let's get it pre-cap of your first word news. laura: high-level talks between china and the biden administration got off to a rocky start in alaska, each side criticizing the other on human rights and trade. beijing targeted a potential summit between president biden and xi if the talks went well. it is unclear if this meeting derails that. the u.s. is weighing additional sanctions to block construction of the nearly completed nord stream 2 pipeline. sources tell bloomberg they may issue penalties for the parent company and single out insurers working on the busters. -- on the vessels. the pipeline will take gas from russia to germany. france is looking down several regions, including the paris
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area, as it struggles to contain the third wave of the pandemic. only essential businesses and schools will remain open. the capital has been under a high level curfew, but infection rates continue to climb. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie? annmarie: laura wright, thank you. eu nations, including germany and france, are resuming the use of astrazeneca vaccines starting today. but has confidence in the vaccination program been undermined? we answer that question. this is bloomberg. ♪
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astrazeneca dose as a precaution. >> there are very few cases that are outside the normal, but they are very significant. we hope that the ema can in the shortest time it clear any doubt and allow us to start up again. >> this is a safe and effective vaccine. it's benefits in protecting people from covid-19 with the associated risks outweigh the possible risks. >> tomorrow morning, the french high health authority will update its recommendation regarding the astrazeneca vaccine so we can resume the vaccination campaign. >> that is the national government in all 16 federal states that over the course of the day, vaccinations with astrazeneca can start again in
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germany. >> the oxford jab is safe and the pfizer jab is safe. what is not safe is catching covid. annmarie: what a week it has been in europe when it comes to vaccines. countries, including germany and france, are restarting the use of astrazeneca vaccines after the regulator endorsed it as safe. so nations will now attempt to get a grip on a vaccine drive that is lagging way behind the united states as well as the united kingdom. let's get more from earlier today out in brussels. -- from maria tadeo in brussels. as the damage done? maria: that is a very good question. we have talked about it this week, whether this was more of a pr image problem for astrazeneca rather than a health issue or concern. if you look at the european medicine agency yesterday, they were clear the benefits would outweigh the risks. that clip you played with the head of the ema, she was very
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clear that on a daily basis you have thousands of people who die of coronavirus. this is a cost-benefit. it is very clear. when it comes to the french, italians, germans, they say they will try to restart as soon as possible, meaning today. mario draghi put out a message saying they want to do this with a lot of intensity, do this quickly. when it comes to the other side of this coin, which is the infections and more restrictions coming in, you have to look at the french, which yesterday announced more restrictions into french regions. they also announced they are locking down areas of the region and area for another four weeks. the prime minister blamed this on mutations, but this is such a cold shower for the french vaccination strategy. for weeks, emmanuel macron said he would not lock down the country anymore. he said though the vaccination may have been slowed, france prevented a lock down.
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now you have a double whammy in which the campaign has been slowed, but you are having to lock down the country again. annmarie: in london, we are so close to paris, but it literally feels like different worlds. the united kingdom is moving forward. it seems like europe is continually moving in reverse. our thanks to maria tadeo, covering this story through the week. esther baroudy is still with us. when you think of the covid story in europe and the vaccination campaign, of course when lockdown restrictions start to lift that is when we can see tangible growth. do we have to keep erasing that penciled in lockdown restrictions for europe? does the timeline continually get extended longer and longer? guest: i think what is highlighted is the recovery will be delayed even further, and if you think about the u.s. with the markets there worrying about lots of debt coming in, this is
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an area which desperately needs recovery, because they are loaded down with debt and they have lots of structural issues already. very high unemployment. and there they are debating issues which are not that necessary and weighing down the confidence of the population. i think they need to get their act together because investors will say, can they get their act together on the recovery, on green issues, on this or that, all these grand things they have been talking about? or are we going to stay in this endless scenario? i think it is very worrying, frankly. annmarie: does the vaccine affect the strong pound, lower euro, given what we are seeing in italy and france with fresh lockdowns? does that trade still have more
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legs? guest: the strong pound, you know, a lot of the uncertainty is with the negotiations. now, it gives the pound a good cushion. annmarie: the other thing, just quickly, if i could bring it to your attention, we have this massive fiscal spending in the u.s. now they are looking at an infrastructure package. europe is still struggling to introduce the recovery fund. at some point, is europe going to need another boost of fiscal supplies? guest: i think if you look at debt to gdp ratios, you find that some countries in europe are much more limited in what they can do in terms of issuance, unless they get together with a single unit that issues it.
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but i am not sure the germans are ready for that. they are a bit kind of stuck. annmarie: this is the problem, as you mentioned. they struggled to speak with one voice. esther baroudy, senior portfolio manager at state street global, thank you for joining us this morning. i want to bring your attention to what is going on in asian equity trading. csi 300 extending losses. we are now down more than 3%. we have seen asian equities lower this morning. this comes after u.s. stocks yesterday falling from a record. the nikkei is really getting hit as the bank of japan will only by etf's tracking the topix. another thing to keep in mind, we have talks going on in alaska between the u.s. and china. at the moment, they are just sending into bickering. potentially trade tensions are also eking into the market. will the divide remain under the biden administration? key question. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> china-u.s. relations has been unprecedented in difficulties. it hurts the interests of people from both nations. and world peace and development. it should not continue. >> i do hope this conversation will be one carried out with confidence on both sides. it is not lectures or long winding statements. >> the united states itself does not represent international public opinion. neither does the western world. >> the alternative to a rules-based order is a world in which might makes right and winners take all, and that would be a far more violent and unstable world. >> with the wisdom of chinese people, there is no way to strangle the chinese people. annmarie: tough talk. various u.s. and china
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representatives at their meeting in alaska. we want to get more from stephen engle. how should we read these opening salvos? to me, i thought it was pretty appropriate in the sense that they were not going to come off easy, where they? stephen: this was expected going into this, from my perspective. they have not had face-to-face talks in more than a year and a lot of acrimony has built up, especially coming out of the trump administration which took on these issues head-on and not with diplomatic tongues. the one thing on the biden administration, they have not unwound the trump measures on china. they are still trying to figure out what they are going to do on china. but they were not going to unwind it before they had a face-to-face meeting and negotiations. then you don't have anything to unwind, you have nothing to concede. there have been two kinds of tones. you have had stiff faces in front of the cameras before the
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official talks began, then you had -- and we are getting some reports that it turned much more civil behind closed doors. people in mind, they had more than two two-hour closed-door sessions. before the cameras, they were talking to their domestic audiences. neither side wants to give in, at least on the optics, to say they are going to make the first concession. i will give this one up past. this is marriage counseling 101. let's see how the talks go tomorrow. annmarie: american and surprise institute derek scissors was saying we do not have a biden administration chinese policy yet, so what are they bickering over exactly remains to be seen. a lot of this is expected optics. what are the benchmarks for the success or failure of these talks? stephen: there was the story yesterday that the chinese were coming into these stocks with grand -- into these talks with
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higher expectations and the greeting they got from their american car and a parts -- counterparts. they felt the americans were condescending. this could be theatrics and grandstanding, but the chinese suggested if the talks go well, there could be a virtual meeting as early as next up between xi jinping and joe biden. it is probably wishful thinking. but the best case scenario is behind closed doors, they are putting their cards on the table, they are talking things through, and they are not necessarily walking out on each other. i got a little bit of a hint from the south china morning post which reported that after the state council are lectured antony blinken for being condescending, he went on a long diatribe criticizing the americans, then turned to antony blinken in english and said, the translator will have a difficult time with that. and antony blinken said, and i quote, that translator should
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get a raise. so there is some levity there. keep in mind, these are seasoned lemat. they both speak fluent english. antony blinken and the rest of the team, seasoned diplomats. they will have one side to the cameras and behind closed doors, i guess they are getting down to business. annmarie: thank you so much, stephen engle, for an update on what is going on in alaska. we want to take a quick check on the trade this morning. the nikkei trending lower. this comes after the bank of japan says they will no longer be looking at etf's, buying etf's that track anything but the topix. that immediately had an effect on the nikkei, down 1.4%. the china csi 300, chinese equities down some 3% right now. a lot of this has to do with what happened yesterday, u.s. stocks falling from a record. the futures market also down nearly 0.3%.
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nations resuming use of the astrazeneca vaccine. paris heads back into lockdown. and talks between the u.s. and china descend into bickering. the first meeting of powers for biden's administration. good morning, 6:30 a.m. in the city of london. it is a risk off friday, especially after what we saw yesterday. wall street equities closing from record highs, a massive one-day move when you look across assets. whether in the 10 year yield or the oil market. the nikkei, down 0.4%. we are ending in the bank of japan. one thing we did not know was what they were going to do with etf's. they are only going to buy etf's that track the topics. csi 300, extending losses past 2.5%. 10 year yields, we are below 1.7%. we saw investors dumping bonds
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and yields rising. brent crude, down 1%, below $63 a barrel. wti falling 7% yesterday. investors worried about inflation, higher dollar, that is taking a bite out of commodities as well. some parts of the world are going into lockdown. the inflation debate, also rumbling in around the world, whether or not the boj or the fed. take a listen to what ray dalio told us yesterday. >> there are two types of inflation. we are use to one type, which is when the economy is too hot. there is a capacity constraint. when demand presses up against existing capacity, prices rise. the big risk is of the monetary inflation which would come because there would be more sellers of bonds than buyers.
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annmarie: ray dalio there. we also caught up with paul krugman. he rejects the threat of inflation getting out of control. >> this always comes back to the fundamental asymmetry. when interest rates are at zero, if fiscal policy falls short, it is hard to make up for that. if fiscal policy overshoot, the fed has mechanically very easy easy tools to bring it in. we are into the question of some kind of mind reading. we think the fed is going to be afraid to do what is necessary if this turns out to be a huge boom? i am not particularly worried they will fall short. annmarie: you can watch more of that interview plus a conversation with larry summers to with that is coming up on wall street week. we did tell you we had the bank of japan policy meeting today. we have governor kuroda
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speaking. quickly, some of the lines coming out of the beginning of his speech right now. he says the new facility will these impact of lowering rates. he is talking about if it is appropriate to continue with the current framework. and if levels can be adjusted. you can follow the latest on the bank of japan decision on our top live lock -- blog. one of the biggest ones coming out of the boj come of the impact of what is going on with the nikkei. they will now only by etf's when it comes to the topic. that has had the nikkei alongside other asian equities. europe come about stalled vaccination program, eu nations resuming use. we ask people from around the continent if they still plan to have the vaccine. take a listen.
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astrazeneca, concerned about having it done. >> i will do the vaccine. i want to be able to travel. >> i think any vaccine is better than no vaccine, regardless of the measures we take like wearing the mask or keeping social distance. >> [speaking foreign language] annmarie: a nice picture of what people are saying across europe. from those who want to get it to those who do not trust it. our director of research joins us. what do the ema really say about vaccine safety? and it is enough to get people
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back into the chairs to get an ocular a shins? -- inoculations? >> i think the ema pretty much said the same thing they did before. previously, they said the benefits outweigh risks. we don't know if there is a risk. the same thing yesterday. we don't know if there is a real link to the side effects. the vaccines are generally safe. i am not sure what they added by doing this yesterday. annmarie: do you think the damage is done -- there has been a long controversy -- are people in europe going to remain apprehensive? >> i don't there is any way of disputing that. every time you talk about we don't have any data for people over the age of 65, we think there might be a safety risk. they have agreed to add something to the product label.
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we don't know if there is a link yet to the rare offense. we hear denmark is continuing to do its own review. there were 10% skeptical yesterday. it might be 11% or 12% today. annmarie: i know this is hard to ask. when do things finally get back to normal? >> there is a lot of variables that go into that. unfortunately, too many variables. one of the latest issues, it is a combination of how well the vaccines work, how well in terms of longer-term proof text and -- protection. how well the vaccine program has gone. variance. how quickly countries reopen, reduce their restrictions.
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those four factors, i am sure there is one i have not talked about, is multiplied together to give you the answer. annmarie: ok. i thought it would be a hard one. it is the one myself and i think all our viewers want to know. when you look at what is going on in europe when it comes to astrazeneca, the united states is still undergoing the review of this an ocular should be read do think what is going on in europe could impact the u.s.? >> absolutely. the u.s. regulator, when they start reviewing the data which has not even been announced, i am pretty sure they will be in touch with the european regulators and the u.k. regulators and other regulators to understand and get the data and ask for information with regards to what has been seen. this will be the case with any vaccine.
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even now with the pfizer vaccine, moderna vaccine, there are regular reviews of the safety. they will definitely do that. annmarie: our senior pharmaceuticals analyst and director of research, thank you so much for joining us. now we will get to your first word news's. >> the u.s. is weighing additional sanctions to block construction of a pipeline. it may issue penalties for the parent company and single out working with companies. it will take gas from russia to germany. it could be one of the biggest deals in the insurance industry in years. chubb is posing a takeover of hartford financial services. it said the deal would be strategically and financially
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compelling for both sides. in a sign things are returning to normal, u.s. apple stores are letting customers try on air pads before trying them. it is already been possible in asia for months. i am not sure i would be happy trying them on. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> i was just putting in our television messaging app. i don't a guy would do that rate let's take a quick look where we trade. the boj is setting the tone when you look across asian equity markets. this is to the headline, the bank of japan will stop buying
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a lot of the rhetoric that has dominated american rhetoric for 40 years seems to have just finished. it is amazing how conservatives, we are just not hearing the kinds of humans they were making, or barely hearing them. at this point in the obama stimulus discussion, they were worrying about hyperinflation and the death of the dollar and none of that is happening. remember, all this is happening because of the very narrow political victory. a few thousand votes in the georgia senate runoffs, if they had not gone the way they did, none of this would be taking place. all this is made possible by that lovable beagle rev. warnock was carrying. if this is a fundamental realignment in our ideology, it
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is a few thousand georgia voters going in a different direction. annmarie: paul krugman. for more on that, catch the interview. we have the bank of japan, governor guerrero to -- kuroda speaking. what they did do, this is something that was always alluded to in the markets, not put out in black and white. you can catch more of the analysis on the tliv blog. is this just kuroda and the bank of japan making it explicit this is the range we are watching? what is so significant about that? >> we had a lot of technical changes. what they did with the 10 year bond, they said either side of
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two. kuroda seems to be saying, what the actual band is, perhaps they were already comfortable with that kind of range. pulling back etf targets, the criticism is the boj had become an outsized whale. he made some moves at the same time to -- that is a signal they can go to negative rates. they are signaling on the one hand, we are pulling rates for sustainability purposes. on the other hand, remain committed to doing more if they have to. annmarie: the japanese topics bank index is on a tear, up two
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point 3%. we heard from call krugman -- paul krugman, talking about inflation. >> we continue to double down on this inflation outlook. he expects inflation to start heading in the right direction sometime soon. there is no sign of that yet. we have more dampening. kuroda warned about the ongoing fallout from the pandemic. a lot of economists making the point, even though they made tweaks to the toolkit, they remain in the same camp. they are doubling down on the dove is message. -- dovish message. that is the kind of balancing act the boj has been trying to navigate. annmarie: what does this mean
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for the yen? >> that is an interesting question. given the opportunity to move. we do know this is a key metric for japan's economy and the recovery. then you probably would see more of a message coming from the boj. the overall tone, no new signaling in the yen. no sense of urgency. as i say, they are making these tweaks. annmarie: tweaks but they are ready to act. thank you so much for that. you can catch more on our terminal in the tliv blog. the first high-level meeting between the u.s. and china under
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>> the pandemic has perhaps accelerated many of those trends that were evident for the pandemic, and they have also changed public attitudes. there is a much greater appetite for change. you can see those trends happening before our eyes. you are seeing pavement whitening, bicycle lanes increasing. in that sense, the city is becoming more ecological and greener. annmarie: norman's foster speaking with me this week. you can catch more of that interview in bloomberg green.
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back to one of our top stories, the first high-level meeting between the u.s. and china under the biden administration. it descended into bickering. each side crew size the other over human rights, trade, and international alliances read joining us now is bloomberg's senior editor. you spent years in d.c.. for me, i thought the tone was likely to be expected. this is their first meeting. what is your take away? >> i think that is right, although i'm not sure everybody quite expected it. i saw a couple of lips in the market when some of that acrimony started at the beginning of the meeting. certainly, i think, if you have been following usa china for a little bit, you have seen this, especially in the chinese side, the desire to look really strong and have that warrior will rhetoric, people call it.
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that is how the meeting started. one of the things i was looking for is i want to see what would happen after that. nothing got canceled. the schedule is still what it is so that was a good sign. they go into the meeting and the reading we got from the u.s. side according to a u.s. official was they got into like serious discussions. we know there is a wide range of disagreements between the u.s. and china in insert thing here. but this meeting is continuing at pace. the readout we got initially was serious discussion. that is certainly progress. annmarie: one thing is the that they are having this meeting, but we don't even know what the biden administration's chinese policy is yet. do you think the meeting is premature? >> i wouldn't say that but i would say this is a bit of a feeling out process.
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we have talked a lot before about how biden was going to emphasize different things than trump, but he was also going to keep a lot of the trump china policy. a lot of people are trying to see, sir late heine -- certainly china is trying to see, what bidens policies are going to be. we are going to get a pretty good readout coming out of this aware those key pressure points are going to be. i have said this a lot with you, the human rights dimension, hong kong, taiwan, that is going to be a bigger play than it was for the last four years. annmarie: you mentioned the market move. we do have the csi 300, taking a leg lower. i want to get your point in the analysis when it comes to russia. the biden administration is wayne potential sanctions. does it have bipartisan support?
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>> it does have bipartisan support. you could argue congress is trying to force joe biden's hand. ted cruz for example is threatening to not exempt some of -- vent some of joe biden's nominees unless action is taken. there definitely is bipartisan support. one thing we have to follow closely is a sort of u.s. russia kind of escalation. use our russia's -- use our russia's -- you saw russia's reaction. no love lost. annmarie: thank you for that analysis. happy friday. let's take a quick look at how the markets trade. the nikkei, down 1.4%. coming after the boj saying --
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