weak, sales are improving. >> at some point in the second quarter, i think we will hit that peak. >> where there is danger is in these markets that have been swept up into >> a speculative frenzy. >>we are early in the -- >> we are early in the economic expansion. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a week. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. lisa abramowicz will be back with us on monday. a long weekend for lisa. tom: well deserved. jonathan: equity futures positive. yields just south of 170th. -- south of 170. tom: the research stream right

now is very quiet. we are going to get a wall of rethinking into the weekend to get us into march and onto april in this pandemic economy. we have a great set of conversations. jonathan: i am looking forward to catching up with ian bremmer. what a 24 hour's on that front in alaska. tom: absolutely right. i said the germany lockdown stuns me. germany in lockdown, we are out of touch in new york. jonathan: we were talking about 100 million vaccine doses in 100 days. we did it in six weeks. what are we discussing in europe? a third wave and the lockdowns you described. it has dominated the conversation on this program for the last couple of months. tom: it is not only in the central banks, but it is in the market. all these --oh --

oh, the humanity. jonathan: after a massive move through 2020. good morning to you all. positive 11, 12 on the s&p. down on the week by .7%. the session up by .3%. euro, weaker. dollar, stronger. in the bond market, 175. that came back, 168. tom: we pulled back. we see it in the currency market. it really shows the status. it is a nudgy friday. it gives us time to concentrate on the theories of themes. jonathan: capitulation not just from the buy side, but from the federal reserve. gdp this year, when you look at

the forecast from the fed, and i think we are going to keep discussing it, the numbers are going to be fantastic, but not enough to change the monetary policy of the federal reserve and that is the new framework. tom: clearly an incremental said. my theme for the day is the idea, the new theme of guessing over demands. the age of oversupply, is this going to be the age of over demand with a boom economy that none of us have ever lived, what is the demand and mr. rodgers is going to help us. jonathan: hugo rogers joins us now. let's start there. why can growth be even better than what we think this week so far? hugo: it is pent up to mind -- pent up demand. there was real suppression.

was $1.7 trillion available to them, another $1.9 trillion from the stimulus and you has this huge wave of potential spending. the question is, will that be a lot, woozy rate remain elevated -- will see great -- will the rate remain elevated? what is more interesting is what will that be spent on. new cars, durable goods, probably not. if you have been lockdown, you probably want to go on holiday. it is almost like a psychological release as much as anything else. money sloshing around. jonathan: what are you looking for? hugo: that gdp number, why can't

that be higher through the second half of the year? we saw sales with strong double digits year-over-year. those are the numbers we are looking at by the time we get into q3 and q4. tom: at the equity markets -- i look at the equity markets and i want to know how they will react to the demand that you are predicting. do you just assume a huge revenue impulse? hugo: that is exactly the question. the economy and the markets are two different things. if we move through a period of normalization, there can be a negative reaction in the equity markets. you can see the early stages of that right now. you can see the questions the market is wanting to ask the fed, how far do great tactical,

how fast the bull market we have seen. there can be a wave of revenue, we have seen lots of operational leverage coming through, plenty of earnings upgrades and so on. at the same time, as -- if rates move up to far, too fast, you can see big parts of the equity market not performing as well. tom: what are you committing to in the equity market? we have had an extraordinary early part of 2021. have you reallocated at deltec? hugo: we reallocated quite hard. we started running into the election with the expectation that biden would win. we started seeing the risk of even more spending and inflation rising. the outperformance of value over a six-year period is colossal. we started that rotation at that

period of time. the bonds we have earned through the last couple of years, through 2019 and 2020 were brilliant, they worked very well for us. we accelerated through november, and now we are the other way around. we are on the way from underweight duration and overrate reflationary outfit. jonathan: i still cannot decide whether growth expectations are beating or if there's still a wall of worry decline. the latest worry is rising bond yields and inflation. it is interesting that we have gone from all of that skepticism, straight to the opposite end, inflation, all within a few months. do you get the feeling this is a wall that we can still climb or whether growth expectations are peaking? tom: i think there is a lot of bad theory about inflation. as you addressed yesterday, causation and correlation and

how it falls into inflation. david rosenberg very lonely in the don't worry about inflation camp. everyone else we are going to talk to today, there is an inflation series that maybe do not work in the original recovery. jonathan: is that another break or on the wall of worry that we can climb? hugo: the conversation about inflation is quite contorted. people are getting schizophrenic about it or having problems with it. but we are normalizing. we have come from massive deflation. they have moved from below the fed's target to between 2% and 3%. we have just normalized. we have turned from a fear of persistent deflation, through to

a normal period. we have not seen a breakout in long-term inflation expectations, which is when you start to worry. the price regime remains intact. people need to rein in their rhetoric. look where bond yields are now. this is barely normal -- fairly normal. we are coming from extremely low interest rates. we have seen this calls disruptions. in terms of actual levels, they are not to worry about. tom: it is a tough life. you are in the bahamas in february and into march and all of our viewers and listeners worldwide are in massive sympathy. you have a massive advantage of your distance from wall street. what is the zeitgeist right now that you are most in disagreement on? hugo: everybody is coming over

to understand that growth will normalize. we are in disagreement inasmuch that we think that there is a strong wave of pent-up demand coming through in particular sectors. we are also in disagreement about whether inflation really matters yet. we are going to see angles on the cpl, but the fed is going to ignore it because they said they are going to ignore it. we are less worried about that. but what we are also thinking is that the best defense against an overshoot, which could happen later in the year, is through cyclical assets, traditional inflation hedges like commodities and actually do not

defend by following, defend by staying ahead. including the fed in some way, many market participants are actually following. jonathan: hugo rogers in the bahamas, thank you. they are all out on loans for the goldman sachs analyst class of 2020. let's talk about it. which way do you want to go? tom: i basically want to say everybody works a lot of hours. it is understood. it is almost a medical equivalent to residency and intern. i would defer to the people in the hallways working at goldman on the workload. i'm going to be honest and i have enjoyed this, the seven day a week, you get out way past 70 hours, 80, 90 hours, i have done it. jonathan: mental health issues,

something goldman has to respond to. just the workflow, come on. is this a generational thing? it used to be, this is the deal, these are the hours. that is the deal. tom: in the single best conversation, we will talk about it through the show. morgan stanley sitting on the runway. jonathan: looking forward to that. coming up, steve chiavarone portfolio manager. some new york city this morning, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene, jonathan ferro. we are up .2%. this is bloomberg. ritika: the divide between the u.s. and china has not changed, even with a new president. the first high-level talks between the biden administration and beijing descended into bickering.

each side criticized the other over human rights, trade and international alliances. the biden administration is considering whether to impose more sanctions to block construction of the pipeline from russia to germany, the nord stream 2 pipeline is almost complete. the u.s. may sanction the project's parent company. penalties on other companies also in possibility. oil is heading for its biggest weekly loss since october. recent gains had been too rapid considering demand and a rising dollar. oil prices are more than 20% higher this year. a new series of long-term tv deals valued at $105 billion. that package includes a historic contract giving amazon exclusive rights as a first rate streaming company. cbs and fox will keep the rights to games on sunday.

the deal starts in 2023 and runs for 10 years. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> we want to get back to where we were in 2019 and beyond that and that is the foundation

behind build back medic. the american rescue plan is designed to put us back on footer -- back on footing. jonathan: the u.s. council of economic advisers chairman. i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures higher. s&p 500 up .2%. on nasdaq, futures up about .5%. a little look at 175 in yesterday's session. euro-dollar south of $1.19. amazing, it has been a week since we passed a $1.9 trillion plan. the story in washington has got to be on foreign policy. the spat with china all in the

space of 24 hours. tom: the first 100 days of a biden administration and just this week alone has been a foreign policy week. what is so important here is the continuum of a foreign policy has simply been shattered. emily wilkins joins us now. our bloomberg government reported. there -- bloomberg government reporter. did secretary blinken run into the effects of trump did, c yesterday with these sharp words in alaska? emily: we knew going into the biden administration that president biden's stance toward china was not going to be what vice president biden's stance toward china was. we see the biden administration agreeing with the trump administration on how to handle

china with things like human rights abuses. even though there were expectations that this meeting would be contentious, there is still surprise about exactly how contentious it was for the first meeting between the two. tom: obviously, the chinese decided to take this tone. among your reporting, what is the why or how the chinese changed this meeting? emily: for this meeting, both sides went in with the idea that they needed to show strength. sometimes how they show strength is that they are not to engage in a little bit of heated debate. you have seen from both democrats and republicans, bipartisanship on the issue of china, that the u.s. anticipates this -- wants to take this tough stance. tom: i think this is so

important. in the new york times this morning, the leader of the chinese delegation turned directly to the cameras and said in english, weight. --wait. as you alluded to, this is unprecedented. jonathan: we have to describe how original of this moment was. you had the u.s. delegation making their piece andy chinese -- and the chinese delegation would make their piece. it would take a long time before we actually see what took place yesterday. secretary blinken told the press to stay in the room so he could snap back. what i'm trying to understand, back and forth, largely for domestic consumption. this is what a spokesperson had to say, when delegates arrived in anchorage come out not only did they find the cold weather, but also the cold way the u.s. treated their guests. what does it mean for policy?

what is the substance of this? emily: it doesn't hide back to politics. china -- it does tie back to politics. you saw president trump allude that he had done unable to good job with china. you did see that come out in the votes. in the past election, you did see more politicians go for republicans. democrats also trying to go for that. at the same point, china is trying to portray it to its citizens. i think you are going to see additional policy, additional sanctions on china, chinese businesses and officials in the next several months. jonathan: this is about human rights issues in china and china

stepping back about social rights issues in the united states. you get told the same thing. do not interfere in our internal affairs. is this going to be the hot button issue between these two countries, or does it get back to the economics that dominated the previous administration? emily: both of these are front and center. the story of what is happening there, that is really mainstream american media that americans are cognizant of. as you pointed out, you did hear the chinese officials shoot back about black lives matter and those protests in the u.s. trying to put the spin on human rights back on america. i think this is an issue that moves people more so than the economic. given the strength of china on the world economic stage, this is going to have to be something where the u.s. and china continue to clash and negotiate and talk on this. jonathan: can we forget these

two parties getting together by the end of april? emily: we are going to have to wait and see. the decision on whether or not is dependent on this meeting. so far, it seems like this meeting is off to a rocky start. it remains to be seen on whether they have that second meeting around climate change. jonathan: maybe that is the bridge. what a phenomenal moment in alaska. emily wilkins. truly original to see what played out in the last day. tom: we are going to see more elements of that and part of it comes from the shift of one of one administration to another. it sets up for an event for an event for march and april. all of that is about to surprise, we make jokes about it. i would suggest almost football history and sports history was made yesterday. the scope and scale of the loss of tottenham to the team from croatia was extraordinary.

jonathan: it was phenomenal. tom: we are doing march bracket here with college basketball in america, celebrating sport. premier league has been great. i don't really understand all this. here was a world-class team with a world-class budget sleepwalking. jonathan: this is one of the european competitions that took place yesterday evening. what this will come down to for your team, so you understand what is going on, is that they need to qualify for the champions league and to qualify for the champions league, you play on tuesday and wednesday nights and not on thursday nights. that is where the money is in right now, they are outside of the top four places. a big game coming up this weekend. tom: with a loss so great, do they lose their name? jonathan: if they don't qualify for the champions league, the maybe some of the big stars want

to leave. tom: you nailed that. jonathan: they went to the exits as well. i predicted that anyway. coming up on foreign policy, ian bremmer come a conversation. equities up -- an important conversation. equities up, yields lower. this is bloomberg.

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♪ jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." here is some of the price action. equity futures advancing by .3%. -- five .75%. -- by .75%. phenomenal to think about how it feels in the bond market versus what we have actually seen in the bond market. 10-year moves up about six basis points. it is so much bigger than that because we have not had a week where treasuries advanced and yields declined. at the end of january, it has been seven continuous weeks of yields climbing. this morning, tens and 30's. on a tenure and 30 year, 10.42.

yesterday, we printed the new post pandemic highs, on the u.s. 10 year, post pandemic highs. japan has had to do it in their own way. the jgb 10-year which has a yield of 11 basis points, it was around zero of 25 basis points. they have clarified that. most people see that as a widening. i think language matters told market participants. -- i think language matters to market participants. japan is going to stay here. i think michael mckee asked a really important question at the news conference. had elevated music played over the top of it. the chairman backed it away. i don't know if he did hear it. the federal reserve has come out with a series of forecast and told us these are the number that they think will happen and

this is what we will not do if we see those numbers. we will not hike interest rates. i think the chairman did a good job. what i understood this week is what they will see in the future that will not lead to rate hikes, item not understand what they need to see to lead -- i do not understand what they need to see to lead to rate hikes. tom: they are going to wait and wait. jonathan: wait to see what? tom: they are going to wait to see a combination that leads to their mandate which is full employment and there is almost a social aspect. we get to 3.3% unemployment quickly. jonathan: two michael mckee's point, maybe they are waiting and they are waiting and we see a repeat of what we saw in the last cycle in europe. i think that is a question that mike is asking. tom: they are going to get back to february of this year before

the pandemic. we will rip up the script. we are honored to bring you ian bremmer with eurasia group. we are usually advantaged that he could join us this morning. at the geneva conference of 1954, the secretary of state of the united states refused to shake hands with a gentle man from china. we then moved on to the ping-pong diplomacy of 1971. what was the ping-pong diplomacy across those two tables that we witnessed yesterday? ian: the most important bilateral relationship in the world, also the most challenging for the americans to manage, certainly one of the more dysfunctional. and it shows that biden and the administration have been talking about china and operating largely in a vacuum over the

first 50 days and that has been very easy to talk up how tough they are going to be on china and now they are actually engaged with china and the chinese government is having none of it. it is their belief that they do not need to be talked down to by a group of american exceptionalism -- exceptional list -- exceptionalists. that is pretty fundamental. tom: what is the debris of trump-pompeo? do you link the two or is this separate? ian: they are very similar in terms of orientation of policy issues. whether you are talking about taiwan or hong kong or the south china sea or intellectual property theft or cyber or

trade, there is not an awful lot of daylight between what the biden administration is concerned about and what the trunk administration -- what the trump administration is concerned about. even the uighurs, the actual policy under biden is similar. where you see an enormous difference is that number one, the biden administration is trying to work very deliberately with allies in advance, trying to coordinate u.s.-china policy with the quad and that means the core allies in asia, not including south korea because japan has a problem with the south koreans, but australia, japan and india and allies in europe, less successfully because the europeans did not view china way the americans do.

none of that coordination was happening under trump. the other big difference between biden antron is that the abided -- biden and trump is that the biden administration has different views with principals across the cabinet that are actually trying to work out a strategic policy that biden will discuss with the principles and make a calculated, calibrated decision on how they are going to roll that out. trump was a gametime quarterback . he sees an opportunity, he throws the ball. he's not going to see what kind of reviews are going to have it from various members of cabinet. it is quite different in terms of how you operationalize what those similar policies. jonathan: approaches going to be different and emphasis -- approach is going to be

different and emphasis too. where is germany on this? where is your on this -- where is europe on this? ian: the europeans are making very clear that if the united states is heading towards the policy of containment with china, they are not on for that. in the united states, it is an absolute national security agreement across the spectrum that china is the most critical adversary of the united states. the europeans do not buy that. china is not their core adversary. that is a real problem. that is going to get harder to bridge because of brexit, because the united kingdom is the european country that is most aligned with the united states in national security

orientation and diplomatic orientation. they are no longer a member of the european union. also, angela merkel who is the voice of stability and reason and multilateralism and trying to keep the europeans on side is losing power and the next coalition in germany is likely to be weaker. emmanuel macron is going to be the most strategic voice of foreign policy in the continent and his orientation is all about strategic autonomy, european sovereignty, a third wave. it is going to be very challenging. the markets have been talking about how there is a honeymoon between biden and the europeans and the europeans are much happier to see biden than trump. i would argue that even though the decoupling has decelerated under biden, it is continuing

and it is continuing for structural and strategic reasons, irrespective of the fact that biden and his team are transit. jonathan: not just china, but russia as well with germany looking lonelier. where do you see success? what can the administration achieve on the foreign policy front with regards to china? ian: the united states and china are massively interdependent in terms of trade, in terms of their purchasing of our treasuries, in terms of the global economy and responding to things like climate change. the simple fact that that relationship persists in a stable way, you might not consider that points on the board, but it is important. in terms of progress, we are very far from progress. what you want to watch for, and

you anticipated this, what is going to happen around earth day, john kerry, who is, in many ways, the most important new appointment of the entire cabinet, former secretary of state, john kerry. there is no question that if you are going to resolve, or even make significant progress in global climate, the two largest carbon emitters in the world need to have some willingness to work together. that is going to be a tall order, but it is also a critical concern of those countries. we will see where it goes. jonathan: always great to catch up. ian bremmer. let's not push that to one side. earth day and global climate issues, not just a bridge that china can reach across to, but also a bridge the u.k. is trying to use to get through to this administration and increasingly i think many countries feel that is the way in this

demonstration. tom: i look at this as a domestic modeling that you cdf today from both parties on both sides in america and the idea that china will not react to the domestic conversation is nonsensical. jonathan: i totally agree with you. something else we've got to react to is the move, they are moving stronger, a headline from the bank of russia, they see a rate hike possible at one of the next meetings. brazil first, turkey next. in russia in the future. tom: this is a new thing. jonathan: em does not have the luxury. you know how this works. when one goes, the cycle starts to build. tom: the way this works is damien comes on and talk to us about emerging markets, but we really do not care because we really want him to talk about the brackets in college basketball. i want him to talk about perdue

and gonzaga. i need to talk to him about the brackets. jonathan: maybe a rate hike coming from the bank of russia. equities up 11 points. tom: john, you are laughing at me. jonathan: we've both got to boiler up in case the manager supports perdue. we do this every year. tom: where is purdue? i ola -- iowa? jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: the first talks between the biden administration and china turned tough almost immediately. antony blinken raised concerns about cyberattacks and treatment of muslim minorities and beijing's control over hong kong. chinese officials criticized the u.s. over the killing of black

americans and called the u.s. the champion of cyberattacks. u.s. states are expanding access to vaccinations earlier than planned for every adult. it is accelerating the biggest campaign in the country's history and making strides toward president biden's may 1 deadline for eligibility. japan has called out more flex ability for stimulus talks for a review to shore up its policy network to stoke inflation. the japanese central bank sent out a wider movement range for bond yields for buying targets for stock funds and lending incentives if it cuts rates. a 23.2 billion dollar offer. it would represent a 13% premium to offers close on wednesday and it would be one of the biggest deals in the insurance industry in years. it has gotten no response yet. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over

120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> i am proud to announce that tomorrow, 58 days into our administration, we will have met

my goal of administering 100 million shots to our fellow americans. jonathan: in six weeks, we got 2.5 million on average right now, that was the president of the united states. good morning, alongside tom king, i'm jonathan -- alongside tom keene. equity futures of 12. the nasdaq up 77, 78. call it .6%. yields down two basis points. yields down two basis points, 168.74. a really wippy couple of days. today is stable, tom: it is interesting to say. you have turkey and russia raising rates on oil demand.

west texas intermediate, 60.80. from 70 back to six to 4.03 -- 64. bloomberg school of public health, this philanthropy to his john hopkins university and principal of this radio and tv platform. i want you to translate for me the epidemiologist upset, i'm going to butcher this, the ophthalmologist lecturing the epidemiologist on epidemiology. in your world, what is it like when someone else in medicine goes after your core competency? andrew: it is a little disappointing. i think senator rand was not thinking about all of the science that is on the table

right now with respect to the need to do mask-wearing, even if you have been infected or vaccinated. the bottom line is this, we never rely on just one intervention to keep the virus away. just because you have been infected or vaccinated, that is not enough for you to be completely free to do anything that you want. two, the number of cases is still too high and we could potentially set up a situation where we are exposing people with antibody levels and allowing the virus to try to adapt to this amount of immunity we are putting in the population in a way that is faster than it should be. those are the things you have to think about. tom: so many things to talk about. why can't i get vaccinated? how fast are we going to get to people who really want to get vaccinated, getting vaccinated? andrew: the supply numbers have

been a limiting factor. it really does seem like some of the estimates are going really high and terms of what can be produced. there is cooperation between pharmaceutical companies to make more vaccine. production is increasing at a phenomenal rate. we are seeing this transition now to these mass vaccination's in the general population, which is done effectively, to tremendously increase the number of vaccinations we can do because there has been a supply issue up until now. that seems to not be the issue in the next couple of weeks. jonathan: talk to me about numbers. 2.5 million on average. can we get to 3 million? andrew: we absolutely can get to 3 million. the focus has been on high-risk populations and trying to limit the severe disease in the elderly, healthcare workers that are highly exposed. now we are transitioning to

places where people can actually move to the for mass vaccination more easily and they can line up for these vaccines in a much more rigorous way and timely way. we can see a massive increase. we just need to have the resources in terms of the people that are volunteering to put the vaccine into people's arms and to make sure the supply chain is complete and continuous and we don't have these speed bumps and interruptions in the distribution. jonathan: i wonder in your mind, how governors can get ahead of that issue. they need to before the numbers drop away. we have seen that from rhode island, they are opening up eligibility. illinois going to do that. utah, full eligibility march 24. is this the right approach for governors to get ahead of the acceptance issue? andrew: absolutely.

you want to have as organized a rollout as possible. we have seen many states that have had problems immunizing just the vulnerable populations. what you don't want his people to show up for a vaccine and be sent home because of some technical problem. that is one big problem. the other thing is, we can immunize 5 million per day. but if we only have 2 million per day who want the vaccine, then we have hit an artificial ceiling. we have to work on getting the message out, this vaccine is safe, it is efficacious, application -- efficacious against these new variants. it needs to be sent out there so we can get public input to getting into the vaccine lines. tom: i want to talk about the vaccine success. my first read of the weekend, it is absolutely superb. i put it on twitter. the successful vaccination

processes all happen because of the digitization of documents, paperwork, the system and all that. we put a man on the moon. why can't we digitize our medical system nationwide? andrew: we can do that in some ways. but the biggest problem becomes the confidentiality issue in terms of much of the personal information in the medical history and not wanting that to be in easily accessible databases. we can parse out small pieces. we can keep track of people's vaccination records. but we cannot link that to a lot of their other data or information. that is the biggest issue. many countries have done this efficiently. the european union is thinking about putting in place a vaccine passport system which is based on digital information on vaccination history. there are ways to do this, but we have to be safe and terms of

protecting the personal information of individuals as we move disease electronic databases. jonathan: you are such a valuable resource. we really appreciate it. andrew pekosz, the johns hopkins university bloomberg school of public health professor. right now in europe, a huge conversation about how welcoming they will be of tourists this summer. british tourism, there is a lot of demand for it and tourists will be vaccinated in a way that many europeans will not be. tom: it is not about the summer. europe has to get to april 15. jonathan: a third wave. tom: they've got to figure out some really difficult cases increasing dynamics. jonathan: we've got to hope europe is open. in the united states, a conversation about pushing forward with widening eligibility. tom: international travel, what are we doing about jfk as a start?

jonathan: maybe we start opening things up on the international front. from new york city this morning, good morning. equity futures up 13. yields lower by a couple of basis points. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

♪ >> savings rate i expect to stabilize at a much higher rate than it was before the pandemic. >> while traffic may continue to be weak, sales are improving. >> at some point in the second quarter, i think we hit that peak. >> where there is danger is in some of these markets that have been swept up into a speculative frenzy. >> we are early in the economic expansion. we are still officially in a recession. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: some bond market stability. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa will be back with us on