♪ >> savings rate i expect to stabilize at a much higher rate than it was before the pandemic. >> while traffic may continue to be weak, sales are improving. >> at some point in the second quarter, i think we hit that peak. >> where there is danger is in some of these markets that have been swept up into a speculative frenzy. >> we are early in the economic expansion. we are still officially in a recession. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: some bond market stability. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa will be back with us on

monday. tom: i got to see a bounce on the screen, but to me, the immovable force was 31 on the vix, and now after a choppy week, we are only at 21.01, so that is at the compliment over the last couple of weeks. jonathan: the nasdaq up by about 0.6%. for this moment going forward, this is about growth expectations. the conversation through the week, others expectations peaking? did they peak with the federal reserve? are we there yet? tom: what we are going to hear from equity players, including our next guest, is the basic idea of what do you do with equity when you get the equity news out there. we are going to begin to seek guidance from corporations, and then indeed, we see q1 earnings announcements as well, and that is going to be a changed

landscape. jonathan: you've nailed it this week. tom: i've done great on the tots. jonathan: not just the football. when it comes to the data, when we see what we all expect. how will we react to it? tom: we are going to stop the show right now and do this because our next guest is a fancy guy -- guy with a cfa and all of that. a bunch of latin mumbo-jumbo is the courage to get out front versus the courage of acting after-the-fact. i'm sorry, but, what was reaffirmed this week was expos. people wait to see, including jerome powell, what the data is. wait and then act. jonathan: let's set the scene this friday morning. good morning to you all. we look like this in the equity market. s&p 500 futures up 13, 0 .3%.

tom and i talk about stability this morning in the bond market. a little look north of 1.75 percent in yesterday's session. in the fx market, you are weaker, dollar stronger. more broadly into em, lira stronger, peso stronger, ruble stronger, and central-bank after central bank either hiking rates, brazil or turkey, or talking about it, russia. tom: we had negative rates on that very short term liquidity market. we have gone back to a positive four-week t-bill. i would also note as you get ready for "the real yield," is this going to be an extended addition -- extended edition? jonathan: if we break 2%, i'll give you an hour. tom: that is from a horrific negative number where we are grinding our way. is there any public publication

that will get the real yield out to zero and maybe to a positive number? jonathan: a move toward zero is part of the conversation. let's bring in steve chiavarone, federated investment portfolio manager. we have gone from skepticism straight to the opposite end. worriers are going to worry. is there any reason to worry? steve: i think those fears are a little bit overdone. i think a bearish argument around runaway inflation is not going to come to fruition, and they are kind of fattening themselves up for the slaughter here. jonathan: do you keep your money encyclicals? steve: absolutely -- money in cyclicals? steve: absolutely. forget about first-quarter earnings. think towards second-quarter earnings, the one year past the trough of the recession. cyclical sectors are going to have 200% to 300% earnings growth on a year-over-year basis.

we have never seen those kind of numbers. when you look at the strength of the value run versus growth, it has been every bit as strong as the growth one versus value in the 12 months going up to last august. i think it still has room to go. tom: you are so handsome there in the patagonia look this friday. i'm going to steal the slogan from patagonia, built to perform, but to last. -- built to last. steve: i like it. tom: what is a portfolio right now that is built to last? steve: you would certainly want to be overweight equities. we think you want to be roughly 60% to 70% of your maximum overweight. tom: what does the gloom crew get wrong? steve: i think it is about inflation. you will see temporary price spikes. there's going to be scenarios where we all want to go to the same vacation spot or do things that require a lot of oil, and

it will take a while for supply to come back on, and you will see some price spikes. but the idea that you have a persistent, sustained long-term upward pressure on prices, it just doesn't play out for us because on the supply side, there's no reason to think this economy is any less able to produce goods then before the pandemic. in fact, we think it is more efficient. on the demand side, we still have aging demographics around the world. you still have europe, japan and china. you still have access unemployment and technology that is representing an unrelenting downward pressure on price. tom: is he channeling david rosenberg or what? jonathan: a little bit. tom: we are getting that view versus the view on inflation. jonathan: here's the big question over the next couple of months. see the data. how do investors respond? if we get inflation induced volatility that opened up

opportunities for you, do you have a game plan for the next couple of months? steve: first off, from the fed's perspective, they are trying to slow walk this. they've tried to jawbone it. other central banks like the ecb are doing a little bit of a twist. the hope is that makes the treasury so attractive relative to foreign bonds that that puts a cap on yields. in terms of how you position from a portfolio, the cyclical trade is a good inflation trade. you have financials, which are going to benefit from higher rates. you have energy and materials which benefit from higher prices in general. the reopening plays are going to benefit from more activity. so we think overweight equities there, shorter on the duration side, overweight spread sectors. we think that is the play, but it is also the play if you get economic growth without runaway inflation. either way, we think that is the right way to be positioned. tom: 8% down, nasdaq 100.

everyone is making a big media play about it right now. is that an opportunity, or do you wait? steve: we would wait. we have been a long-standing overweight on tech. we went neutral last august, and underweight within the fund. we think that plays out for a while longer. the incremental new slow is not benefiting them. i can't consume much more of their goods this year relative to last year as i can on some of these cyclical things. there's only so much tech i can consume, whereas there's a lot of things i didn't consume last year, and i will switch my spending their. tom: i am trying to channel steve austin in a patagonia best -- channel steve in a patagonia vest right now, but i can't. [laughter] it is an age of over demand. we will get boom this, boom that.

what are they going to do with all of that money? steve: i think you are going to see a lot of things. number one, you've got this elevated savings which will fund a lot of spending, particularly in the back half of the year. it is easy to trash it, but i don't think that's right. if you think rates are going to move higher, and i think there's every reason to think in the short run they are going to drift higher, cash is a low duration asset. i think cash still has a place in the portfolio, and it gives you the opportunity to use pullbacks in the market in those equity overweights. it is going to fund some shopping on the consumer side, mainly from an investment perspective. jonathan: steve with some ray dalio pushback there. steve chiavarone, federated

portfolio manager. tom: thanks so much. we get a lot of people that talk about asset allocation. steve studies that. he knows the theory, and he knows it is so much about not what you do, but what you don't do. it is a huge part of trying to get to a better outcome. jonathan: love the midtown uniform making a comeback. you heard what he said. nature is healing. when we start to see the patagonia vest -- tom: do i need to go out and get one to be part of the team? with the bowtie? jonathan: a bowtie with a patagonia vest, walking around midtown. when you see that, you know we are getting back to business. tom: for all of you across this nation, here's the report. chairman powell was right in his press conference. we are not there yet. we've got a ways to go. jonathan: but the key variable in all of the conversations we are having, where do the savings go? what does the savings rate look

like? we heard that in the last hour. we've heard that from steve chiavarone. we got pushed back yesterday from adam posen of the peterson institute, who doesn't think that story develops in the way some people think it will, and his view on inflation is a lot less worrisome than what we are hearing from others. tom: and also, i got the tone from dr. pozen that the gdp number at the fed is very responsible. i didn't hear him going out to the ellen zentner number or a 10% number. jonathan: here's the theme this friday morning. we look like this on the equity market. s&p 500 futures advancing 11, 12 points for the s&p, up about 0.3%. some stability in the bond market. i am clueless as to how long that lasts. japan saying zero is the target. ruble stronger, e.m. better in the last couple of days. i hike from brazil, a hike from

turkey, and russia saying we might join the party in the next couple of days. . more still to come. in the next hour, brian levitt, invesco global market strategist. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the first top-level talks between the biden adminstration and china were bound to be confrontational. the question is, can the two sides find a way to cooperate? in alaska, different mats from the world's largest economies criticized each other -- diplomats from the world's largest economies criticized each other on everything from the virus to trade. the biden adminstration is considering whether to impose more sanctions to block construction of a gas pipeline from russia to germany. the nord stream 2 pipeline is almost complete.

the u.s. may sanction the project's parent company. penalties on other companies are also a possibility. the european union has a chance to put coronavirus vaccinations back on track today. regulators have given astrazeneca's vaccine the all clear. eu governments say they will immediately resume at this during -- resume administering the shot. oil is heading for its biggest weekly loss since back in october. a selloff has been driven by concerns that recent gains have been too rapid. considering mixed signals about demand and a rising dollar, still, oil prices are more than 20% higher this year. the national football league has announced a new series of long-term tv deals valued at $105 billion. the package includes a historic contract giving amazon exclusive rights to thursday football broadcasts. that is a first for a streaming company. cbs and fox will keep the rights

to daytime games on sunday. the deal starts in 2023 and runs for 10 years. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the alternative to a rules-based order is a world in which might makes right and

winners take all, and that would be a far more violent and unstable world for all of us. i said that the united states relationship with china be competitive where it should be, collaborative where it can be, adversarial where it must be. jonathan: secretary blinken. what a moment in alaska. we will return to that moment in just a moment. good morning to all of you. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. we sat out for a long weekend. she will be back with us on monday. equity futures up 12 on the s&p 500. we advanced 0.3%. stability after a look at 1.75 sent in yesterday's session -- at 1.75% in yesterday's session. crude on a $60 handle. we saw $66 intraday on monday, $58 yesterday. it is a story of stability this friday. stability in crude, rates, and

the equity market. tom: still, we did get to friday, we will get through the weekend, and we will reset from their. i suggest we will reset to a new demand in america. there's no stability in our foreign relations. we were stunned, all of us, at what came out of anchorage. i asked kevin cirilli, are you going to anchorage? maybe you should have. our chief wearing -- our chief washington correspondent joins us. i go back to 1972. henry kissinger in shanghai, piecing together the shanghai communique. what was the communique written yesterday in anchorage? kevin: game on, essentially. i appreciate that comment, tom. look, as we move forward here, there is a clear resetting by the biden adminstration in tone, but not in policy, from the previous administration. either way you look at this,

from the body language in the room or the tone from the secretary of state, but from the policy standpoint, not much has changed. in terms of what the objectives are from the previous administration to the current one. tom: we are constrained on time. every expert writing on it. yes, there is hong kong and the new realities there. what are the new realities across the formosa strait? kevin: i think you get to a point where the broader relationship is incredibly strained, and it is in need of repair. jonathan: we talked yesterday about how impulsive foreign policy would be with this administration, or whether we would return to that story of orchestrating these things before they even happen. diplomats getting around the table and saying we will send our delegates, you senior delegation, and we will see what this look like. yesterday felt impulsive. what happened?

kevin: i think it bears repeating, there is a sense in the business community that the issue of energy policy is something that will unite the u.s. and china. i've got to be frank, here in washington, that is not messing with my reporting -- not meshing with my reporting. when i took to democrats, they are noting the human rights abuses in the xinjiang province, the supply of silicon for the develop into solar panels, you can't detach the two. when you've got a global spotlight on beijing in just next year with the olympics, you can't detach that from this as well. so i am curious to see what the conversation is in europe, as well as australia, about specifically this should jang province because it is one thing to have a semiconductor chip shortage -- specifically the shin jang -- the xinjiang

province because it is one thing to have a semiconductor chip shortage, but it is a tangible variable going forward. the second you get hollywood, progressives talking about the uighurs, that will elevate the conversation to a whole new level. it hasn't happened yet, but it feels like that is the direction that this is going in. jonathan: in the united states, companies facing severe social justice issues, the consumer base in america increasingly progressive will isolate that particular brand or company. we don't see the same thing happening on the international stage in china. do you see that changing anytime soon? if the consumer base does not respond to this in the way they do with companies, or hold companies to the same standard and china as they do here in the united states, they do you see any of this changing anytime

soon? kevin: when i talk to people, to china experts, they would suggest that china is not going to change that. but here we are in a global economy. this is a test for 2021. will the global economy moved china towards the west? secretary pompeo raised the question during his speech at the nixon library more than a yuriko. that is the key question. tom: it is counterfactual, but if secretary pompeo had traveled to anchorage, would he have gotten the same lecture secretary blinken.? -- secretary blinken got? kevin: yes. but based on my reporting, i see so much more unity on the issue of china. i don't mean to be a broken record, but i go back to senator kevin cramer, who said the issue of china national security policy has become low hanging

fruit. in washington speak, that means any bill that comes on china will pass without any controversy. tom: how does china respond to the low hanging fruit in the dialogue to come? kevin: i think i'm not going to tell xi what to -- [laughter] tom: everyone else's. -- everyone else is. jonathan: let me jump in and put the question a different way. the relationship with china will be competitive where it should be, collaborative where it can be, and adversarial where it must be. we have seen the adversarial part of this. it was in the last 24 hours. we know where the united states needs to be competitive. where it is not clear to me still is where they can be collaborative. where can they be? kevin: when you look at the global supply chain, there is a clear sense, as you've got the world's two largest economies, and from an economic standpoint, they want to be, i think the way

president biden described it, economic partners. that partnership is something that could be explored, but taiwan, hong kong, what's going on in their waters, the human rights abuses, all of that is just leading to a moment that, candidly, i think it is going to be more interesting to see how the europeans react and specifically, how specific european countries react, whether they align themselves with the west or continue to make inroads with china. this is the final point, and i think it bears repeating, the influence in terms of technology in south america and latin america can't be underestimated as well. tom: here's the final point, kevin. what does your bracket look like? kevin: oh my gosh. you know, what is the terminal thing? i missed the deadline. jonathan: kevin, go.

kevin cirilli down in d.c., thank you. your equity market turning over. we are down off the highs. let's get it back on the rails. equities up, yields lower. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. in the bond market, this is where it all begins and ends. stability is the story this morning. yields come in a couple of basis points on tens. on 30's, we come in a couple of basis points as well. through 1.60% briefly in yesterday's session. what we see here has huge ramifications for what happens here, into the equity market. stability and bonds, stability and equities. the nasdaq bouncing back. up about 0.5%. we want to sit here for just a

moment. twitch of the board. asked one. -- switch up the board. last one. 20 year treasury down hard year to date. the question i've got at the moment, as duration sells off, longer dated maturities selloff and people start to think more about the risks around that, how do we recap the quarter we've just had in the next couple of weeks when we look back? how do people respond to it? when we look at the carnage, the damage done year to date, and the longer end of the curve. tom: that's the smartest chart you've done this week. that is a really important chart. we make a joke about the 97 year austrian piece, down 24% in price, but how long duration is a bond bear market. jonathan:jonathan: let's get you some movers. rough for energy yesterday, romaine. a little bit of stability this morning. romaine: investors looking for either bargains or at least companies they think can be resilient.

you want to look for a company that may be has good revenue growth, good pricing power. this is keeping a lot of capital expenditures in check. fedex fiscal q3 earnings really knocked it out of the park. he saw all of those metrics improving. they reinstated their guidance. much more bullish than what it was prior to the pandemic. member come -- remember, fedex said prior they expected to get 23 million packages. 80% of the growth will come from e-commerce. they said because of all of the commercial airlines that have been pulled back, all of those flights, all of that cargo that would have normally gone -- so they are getting a boost their. ups is also a beneficiary of this. interesting pandemic dynamics. take a look at nike. their earnings were great, but sales were down. i big reason is not because they couldn't sell product. it is because they couldn't even

get that product into their inventory. they talked about major delays with shipping. the inventory at one of their main ports dropped 20%. if you were trying to get those new flywheel lows, you were not going to get them on time. tom: what an interesting time, but we hear from adidas. jonathan: here we go. you know what he is starting here, don't you? [laughter] tom: whether it is i did this or nike, -- it is adidas or nike, is it retail store debt? romaine: they think the retail, brick-and-mortar model is alive and well, if that is not all you do. nike has been that. many of those have already reopened. that a popular brand. we heard from burlington, formerly ellington coat factory,

a company that has basically no e-commerce presence, and they've done well during the pandemic. tjx has done well on the brick-and-mortar side. you don't necessarily have to be an e-commerce company. tom: do you see he talks differently when he wears a tie versus a bowtie? can you tell the difference? jonathan: i can. romaine: i have more energy. do you know how much time it gets me -- it takes me to get that bowtie tied? jonathan: you are there for those nike numbers, and i think you are going to see more of this. how much more do we anticipate in the months ahead? romaine: if you are talking about the supply, this is a big issue here. right now, the general consensus is this could drag on until the summer months in the u.s. before it gets sorted out. you have companies like nike that will weather the storm, but it is second-tier companies cutting hammered here. tom: do you have purdue in your

bracket? romaine: now. i have iowa and -- no. i have iowa and baylor going to the championship game, baylor winning at all. you can copy my bracket. jonathan: do we have time to copy it? romaine: 9:00 a.m., i think. just don't blame me if you lose it all. [laughter] jonathan: romaine, thank you. tom: this is the most important conversation of the day. there have been shifts in the market, and what that means is the adults in the room have to readjust and shift to quarter's end. mike schumacher of wells fargo joins us. you've done the math on how adult pension plans, the defined benefit plans must rebalance. what does that mean for our listeners? mike: it is interesting.

we expect the biggest flow by pensions and 10 plus years into bonds come out of equities. -- pensions in 10 plus years into bonds, out of equities. it is the biggest flow in a very long time. we think that takes place starting late next week, lingering towards the end of the month. tom: what will be the nature of that, or will that be a mystery? do we know what kind of paper they will buy in fixed income? michael: we know which equities have done the best. it has been the small caps. if you are thinking about rebalancing on formulated basis, it would be so large caps -- it would be sell large caps. jonathan: it'd pick up in the long end. you've been waiting for this moment. it's here. we have been asking how much oxygen is left. what are the answers to those questions now? michael: it is interesting.

if you think about the next couple of weeks, we are essentially neutral for the pension flow reason. but if you take a longer perspective, i think it is interesting to look back to the taper tantrum. during the tantrum, real yields on the 10 year treasury went from very negative to positive. today, the real yield is about -60 basis points. eventually the fed tapers. with ink at wells fargo, that probably happens early next year. if that is enough to push yields up to near zero and if inflation expectations stay about where they are, that would put tens well north of 10%. jonathan: this is what you brought up a couple of hours ago, so let's talk about the nominal yield at zero in japan. a commitment to keep the 10 year maturity there, and you are talking about a nominal yield in america getting up to 2%. we are talking about a bund market with a nominal yield of that is negative.

just how wider these spreads going to be in the next 12 months? michael: spreads are going to be huge. when you consider the idea of yields going up, typically the u.s. leads the way. but if you consider it in the context of a beta, it is maybe five or six basis points per 10 basis points on the treasury. rising yields in general should push those spreads out. there's no particular speed limit, so it is really a function of how aggressively high the 10 year yield goes. tom: you heard from the bond expert jon ferro that the bond moment is here. what does a bond bear market look like? so few people actually know, not negative 10%, -18%, but even a bond bear market of -5%, what does that look and feel like? michael: one of the big implications we have been thinking about is what does it mean for mutual fund investors. a lot of people think, well, i

will make some money, not a ton. but i certainly wouldn't expect to lose any money. yet, when those quarterly statements come out in a couple of weeks, there's going to be a lot of red ink. our hunch is that people are probably hitting another quarter or so, but if the numbers look as bad or worse at the end of june, i think you have the risk of significant outflows. tom: i can't say how important this is. it is really the third envelope with a little bit of red print on it. jonathan: let's get to that june meeting at the fed. how different is that compared to the one we just saw? michael: it could be very different. the challenge for chairman paulista talk about inflation not when it is low, but when it is high. the fed has shifted to targeting average inflation, and if inflation picks up above 2%, which it may do in the next few months as these numbers from last year rolloff, than the chairman is going to get a little uncomfortable. people say, fine, you tell us

you are going to target average inflation, but now inflation is above 2%. how long do you wait for the average to catch up? the chairman really has to be strident and make that point time and time again, that the fed is intending on staying low for a long time. we will see if the docs cooperate. jonathan: here are the dates. april 28, that's one fed meeting. here's the one with the updated forecast, june 16. what does that meeting look like? how different is it? tom: i agree, the forecast is different. i do admit that june meeting, and michael mckee has said this, what is so important there is you're going to have economic data there, and by the june and end of july, you will get a feeling for the second quarter as well. jonathan: base effects have kicked in big time in the next couple of months. gdp, may growth has even peaked.

that is going to be an interesting conversation to have. before we even reopen this economy and really get roaring, we start to have a conversation more and more and that several months about what 2022 looks like. tom: there's a massive mystery about that glide path off of whatever the maximum peak is. i don't think anyone has a clue. jonathan: the deceleration from 2021 to 2022 and how you want to be allocated in this market. coming up, dr. peter hotez, baylor university dean. we will talk about all things medicine next. vaccines, the pandemic, 2.5 million vaccines per day on average in the last seven days in america. phenomenal numbers, and a reason why we are talking about american exceptionalism in this global economy, certainly

relative to what is taking place in europe. yields in three basis points. 1.68% on tens. in the equity market, up nine points. it is like babysitting. we have the european football championships in the summer. we will do a bracket for that. tom: no one cares. the tops are in tenet -- the tots aren't in it,, so who cares? jonathan: you care about basketball? that's the cheap guide to tom keene's bracket. futures up nine, 0.2%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. vladimir putin is still hoping to have a public conversation with joe biden to clear the air between the two presidents, according to a kremlin spokesman. earlier this week, president biden accused putin of being a killer. moscow responded by recalling its ambassador from washington. that is a traditional way

countries have shown their displeasure. in alaska, the first high-level talks between the biden adminstration and china turned tough almost immediately. secretary of state antony blinken raised concerns about cyber attacks, the treatment of muslim minorities, and beijing's control over hong kong. chinese officials criticized the u.s. over the killing of black americans and called the u.s. the champion of cyberattacks. the french government is looking down several regions for a month, including paris. resident macron is trying to contain a third wave -- president macron is trying to contain a third wave of the virus. the new measures are expected to take 0.2% off of france's annual gdp. it would represent a 13% premium to hartford's close on wednesday and would be one of the biggest deals in the insurance industry in years. it has gotten no response yet.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the committee has come to a clear, scientific conclusion,

this is a safe and effective vaccine. it's benefits in protecting people from covid-19 with the associated risks of death and hospitalization outweigh the possible risks. jonathan: there is some reputational damage to address in europe, that's for sure. the european medicines agency executive director on the astrazeneca vaccine and the spat we have seen between european nations and that pharma company over the last couple of months on several issues has just been phenomenal, for all the wrong reasons. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz back with us on monday. we keep going back to a single word, stability. a little bit of stabilities in today's session to close out a choppy week. yields in on tens to 1.61%. euro-dollar not doing much at $1.19. nasdaq 100 futures up 0.6%. crude lower, aggressively lower in yesterday's session by 7%.

today, up 0.4% to $60.28. tom: that global price gets my attention. jon ferro lived this. he was us const in london as we look at this pandemic and look at the clear reality of boris johnson hanging onto life. jon ferro, unlike others who hide when they get vaccinated, the prime minister of the united kingdom will take the astrazeneca vaccine today. what is the symbolism of that? jonathan: an important moment because somata people in the united kingdom have received that vaccine, and hoping a lot more will receive that vaccine. the context of what we have seen has raised doubts about that. there's been some real damage done to the reputation of it. so to see the british leader receive that vaccine, i think it is really important for the nation to see and for europeans to see as well, that the u.k.

has led the way with this vaccine in a big way. we now have 28 million doses given in a population covered with that vaccine, and it has been pretty phenomenal. tom: the prime minister very visible today, and someone who has been visible from the beginning of this terrible, unnatural disaster, peter hotez from the baylor school of medicine. would you take the astrazeneca vaccine right now? dr. hotez: yes i would, and i have offered to do that. the europeans have been quite time deaf as to how sensitive vaccines are to public perception, or as i often like to say, it doesn't take much to vote even a good vaccine off the island if the public doesn't feel confident. the way european countries have handled this has been abysmal. the ema statement at the european medicine agency is important, but not enough for

all of the damage control that is going to be needed. that statement that the german institute made, the regulatory body, was so damming. the fact that the french suspended its use, oblivious to the impact that would have on francophone africa because francophone africa very much gets its guidance from france, i am really worried about what is going to happen in the coming weeks. tom: i have noticed brazil and latin america seem to be unraveling. to make a must attend yet is a statistical mystery as well. are we winning in this battle with the pandemic, or deluding ourselves? dr. hotez: what you really have to do is go country to country. in the u.s., we are slowly getting our arms around this. we are in a race with the variant from the u.k. with vaccinated in the american people. the next few weeks are going to be critical.

africa doesn't have vaccine. that is a disaster in the making or get latin america doesn't have vaccine. that is a disaster in the making. india is doing what it can to step up can't to be the vaccine supplier for the world's low and middle income countries. that is a positive. russia and china largely bypassed international regulatory authorities like who prequalification, making these one-off deals with countries. that is a disaster. suet it is a very complicated and mixed picture right now. jonathan: i have to follow-up on something you brought up, how the issues in france around this vaccine would spill over culturally to the issues in africa as well. when you say we could see a disaster, can you describe what that disaster would look like? dr. hotez: the disaster is it looks like the south african variant is accelerating now into malawi and mozambique.

even though africa overall has done better than many expected during 2020, that grace period could end as this virus starts to accelerate, and the world has been very focused on very high tech innovations, mrna vaccines that i don't think we'll filter to the low and middle income countries. yes, pfizer/biontech sent doses to rwanda. that was great. but there are 1.1 billion people living in sub-saharan africa. if we need two noses of most of those vaccines, that's 2 billion doses, so so far it is a drop in the bucket. hopefully we can fill that gap, but that is a potential humanitarian crisis for africa. jonathan: do you think there is sufficient funding to do that? dr. hotez: no, we had to raise a

lot of money privately from various sources enough to do the technology transfer to india, and now we are in discussions with south africa and indonesia. hopefully that will come through. but everybody went very heavy on the innovation, and innovation is important. we need to innovate in vaccines. but at a certain stage, you need some traditional, low-cost, durable vaccines for low and middle income countries, and there was not enough attention paid to that. tom: thank you so much. i notice your book self -- your bookshelf behind you. peter hotez of baylor college, thank you for being with us today. i look at the pandemic, and there is an effervescence out there. we heard that from a restauranteur when we could go -- restauranteur one week ago

today. jonathan: it is difficult to get a reservation in a new york city restaurant right now. things are opening up and booing back, even before we get everyone vaccinated. 28 million doses given so far in the u.k., enough to cover 27% of the population, but not entirely from the astrazeneca vaccine. to compare and contrast that with america, 216 million doses given. to the doctors' point, we need to think a lot more about the developing world, a lot of africa that doesn't have access to these vaccines, and more about the prospects of these variations. tom: the managing director at the imf emphasized this as well area brazil and latin america are horrific. jonathan: the numbers are not good. we are talking about a third wave in europe. it is a very different

conversation from the rest of the world compared to, say, select parts of the middle east, united states, the u.k. and china. tom: you're going to get a $59 on oil. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the savings rate i expect to stabilize at a much higher rate than it was before the pandemic. >> we think there is a psychological relief is available here. >> while traffic may continue to be weak, sales are improving. >> a bearish argument and around -- argument around runaway inflation is not going to come to fruition. >> where there is danger is that some of these markets have been swept up into a speculative frenzy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good