>> the savings rate i expect to stabilize at a much higher rate than it was before the pandemic. >> we think there is a psychological relief is available here. >> while traffic may continue to be weak, sales are improving. >> a bearish argument and around -- argument around runaway inflation is not going to come to fruition. >> where there is danger is that some of these markets have been swept up into a speculative frenzy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg tv. abramowicz, she is so gone today. well needed. we wish her the best. where did she go? jonathan: she's skiing until monday. tom: hopefully she will arrive in one piece. we welcome all of you to a most interesting friday. 9, 10 business days to the end of the quarter, and it is sort of that let's get to next week feeling. jonathan: a 59 dollars handle briefly on wti after a vicious move lower. we called it a morning of stability. wonder if that stability holds in crude? tom: and there's that real debate about will demand come on. so much less will demand come on, but when do we see that boom economy? jonathan: they win in the next several months.

where, in the united states. we've seen it in china already. do we see it in europe? we came into 2021 talking about synchronized global growth. who is talking about that now? beneath the surface, america great, china stable, europe not so much. tom: i want to touch on two important ideas. one is your property this afternoon, "the real yield." that's what the guests are talking about, a real yield up to -0.60%. that has come fast. can it continue that linear move? jonathan: mike schumacher of wells fargo talking about that. you get a much wider spread versus the rest of the world. japan pinning it to the floor at zero. in germany, the depot rate staying negative for years to come maybe, so the tenure maturity could be negative two. could be talking about really wide spreads. -- the 10 year surety could be

-2%. could be talking about willie -- about really wide spreads. tom: i want to talk about what we've learned from the uproar in anchorage, alaska. there was no communique yesterday. jonathan: we talked a lot about diplomacy, and we have experts that come on this program, and they will tell you that diplomacy is well choreographed, well orchestrated, that the individuals get in the room way before the high-profile guys do and basically orchestrate the outcome. what happened yesterday, this is what we were meant to see. the u.s. delegation, secretary blinken, talk for a couple of minutes. the chinese delegation talk for a couple of minutes. we saw the chinese delegation go on for a whole lot longer, and then secretary blinken, instead of telling the breast to leave the room -- telling the press to leave the room, told them to stay so he could snap back. what it comes down to

continuously between these two countries, china seems to be very convertible having a conversation about global economic issues. when you talk about human rights, the pushback aggressively about the social injustice within the united states. we got a little sample of that, an appetizer of maybe what is yet to come in yesterday talks in alaska. tom: we are going to have helane becker with us in a bit. american airlines opening up nonstop flights in some areas as well. the nasdaq down 8% is not a correction. jonathan: we've got a bounce back this morning, up 0.5% on the nasdaq. the s&p 500 up 0.2%. in the bond market, i think we can say we've had a big move year to date on 10 year treasuries come on the week up about six basis points, today down two or three. tom: do we need to talk about bitcoin? $59,000. what does bitcoin do over the weekend? jonathan: i am still trying to

understand bitcoin, so i don't talk much about it. tom: brian levitt ordered by his general counsel not to talk about bitcoin. he joins us right now with invesco. [laughter] he is there global market strategist as well. there was a theory about international and investment and a recovering pacific rim. dovetail the disappointments of the last couple of days and weeks with what we observed in anchorage yesterday. how is the pacific rim doing? brian: china has emerged from this and quite good shape. you're right, the economy is quite stable there. valuations look attractive. that place is still a hotbed of innovation, although there are some concerns about the regulatory environment. the story right now has just all been about the united states, the rates market expectations of

whether the fed is going to have to raise rates sooner rather than later. you get some capital flight out of the emerging markets, concerned that this is 2013 all over again. i think those concerns are overstated. this is a reversion to the mean in the united states. tom: alaska airlines a nonstop from anchorage to minneapolis. jonathan: one of the topics of red goldman because it is so -- top picks over at goldman because it is so leveraged. your line, your words. in year two, if the market could go up if the economy so good, i've asked him, can we really have a boom year any market that doesn't perform well -- year in a market that doesn't perform well? brian: i think the markets are going to perform well. year to of them -- year two of a

market cycle tends to be more volatile. we question whether it is too good. the reality is we know there's a lot of pent-up demand, a lot of fiscal support, and we know we are going to have a good economic backdrop. when you have concerns about policy, that is when you get volatility in the markets. but let's remember, this is what we all hoped for a year ago. we are seeing earnings approve -- earnings improve. i think they ultimately fade beyond 2021. jonathan: this cycle moves quickly. we have been pricing in all of 2021 since the beginning of november. when do you start thinking about deceleration in 2022? brian: investors need to keep their mind on deflation in 2022.

your value-oriented parts of the market get their day in the sun, but the idea that we can't own anything duration, i caution against that. what you see as you move out into 2022 is we all have pent-up manned. how long? we know this income replacement starts to fade as you move out to 2022. let's not forget the long-term structural forces against inflation like an aging population globally, automation of the workforce, new technologies. i am not ready to sell anything long-duration. i think growth stocks will be back in vogue in 2022. tom: i would really underline the new technology. brian levitt, how much cash is really out there? when invesco sits down and cast chelates -- and calculates the investable cash, is it a lot?

i am not looking for a number answer. i'm looking for something friday scientific. brian: it is a lot. it is ginormous. even if you think about the amount of money that is just sitting in government related bonds, you're looking at a few trillion. add it all up, there's a substantial amount of money sitting on the sidelines area you had far more money go into fixed income strategies versus equity strategies. yields have come up a bit, but nonetheless, the fed is still telling you they want to inflate away a good percentage of it. you are getting zero in money markets. the fed once greater than 2% inflation. ultimately, i think that money continues to find its way into equity markets and credit forget a lot of the support on the fiscal side is going to end up in markets. if some of it is finding its way into middle income household pockets, that is going to find its way into markets, so i would

say asset price inflation is a good this story. jonathan: let's start talking about managing your money. i understand it is young carly's birthday today in the levitt household. for you, carly needs some money when she comes to new york city in about 10 years. if you have to buy and hold for a decade for your 13-year-old, where would that money go today? brian: let me first say, i hope it is a decade before she's going to new york city to hang out with her friends. i would say it's going to be a little bit sooner than that. but i think you have a trade here on value stocks, but if you're looking long-term, 10 years, you want to look for structural growth businesses globally. i would think a lot of those are going to be in the united states, some of those in emerging markets as well. tom: is she trading gamestop off the couch? brian: not yet. maybe i should teacher to. [laughter] i just felt bad last year, they

were honking horns to celebrate birthday. this time we are sell a breeding the garage. they be for 202 -- we are celebrating in the garage. maybe for 2022 we can go outside. jonathan: last year, it was economy bad, markets great. this year, economy great, and people having the conversation whether we have to turn markets lower. tom: dr. fauci going after senator rand paul of kentucky. are we still going to believe in science? science got us to where we are right now. jonathan: so yes, tom, and the vaccine push has been terrific, but i do think there was some damage done this time last year on the mask front. i do think there was some damage done, and we can't gloss over that. we were all told about not wearing a mask, and then a month later told we all needed a face covering. then we were told face coverings weren't good enough. now we are told two masks.

i understand the silence -- the science changes, but that needs to be prepared. tom: the confidence needs to be won back. jonathan: on the airlines come on fedex, helane becker, cowan analyst -- on the airlines, on fedex, helane becker, cowen analyst. looking forward to that. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the first talks between the biden adminstration and china were bound to be contentious. diplomats from the world's largest economies criticized each other over everything from human rights to trade. secretary of state antony blinken accused china of undermining global stability. the european union has a chance to put coronavirus vaccinations back on track today. regulators have given astrazeneca vaccine the all

clear. italy, france and germany say they will administer the shots. several countries suspended it after some blood clots in patients. the u.s. is considering more sanctions to block a gas pipeline from russia to germany. the nord stream 2 pipeline is almost complete. penalties on other companies are also a possibility. american mortgage lenders are now excited to focus on those homeowners who still have incentive to refinance. the average own honor -- the average homeowner within the index is paying an interest rate of 3.8%. mortgage rates have risen steadily since january and are now just under three point 1%. the national football league has announced a new series of long-term tv deals valued at $105 billion. the package clues and historic

contract giving amazon exclusive rights to thursday football broadcasts, the first for a streaming company. cbs fox -- cbs and fox will keep the rights to stream games on sunday. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> in the united states, it is

an core agreement across the political spectrum that china is the key political adversary of the united states. the europeans don't buy that at all. china is not their core adversary, and that is a real problem. jonathan: that was in burma -- that was ian bremmer of eurasia group. there's going to be a multilateral approach, but can you get your allies to come along with you? good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action going into this weekend. up 0.6% on the s&p 100, the nasdaq up 0.3%. up earlier on crude after a 7% plunge on wti. stability on euro-dollar,

$1.1901. tom: jon, what was the why yesterday on oil? jonathan: can't put my finger on it. a lot of people were talking about maybe we priced in a recovery too quickly, given what is happening in europe, shutting down again. don't know. tom: if you know the name cowen, you know they own aviation. with helane becker, they have been at the top of airline analysis. we are thrilled helane becker could join us this morning. within your note is the rollout you are guessing outcome of which is cancun at some point, and then we are going to jet off to paris as they go into lockdown this weekend. and somewhere way out in 2022, we will be able to go to asia. can the airlines wait that long? are the airlines and control of their destiny? helane: i think they are, and it is good to see you again, tom and jon.

good to see you guys. i think they are in control of their own destiny at this point. over the past week my will -- over the past week, we have regularly seen more than one million people passed through tsa. around more real day weekend -- around memorial day weekend, we think we will see around 1.5 million a day. frankly, we think that is pretty close to pre-pandemic levels in domestic traffic. people don't want to go -- people don't want to pour in teen, especially if you only have a week or two of vacation. you really don't want to stay in a hotel room somewhere. so we need to see those quarantines lifted. our view has been as more vaccine gets into people's arms, we think that will happen. i think new york is lifting quarantine rules this weekend. i think things will start to get better, and i do think the airlines will benefit from

domestic traffic. tom: do they have the empty planes to bring on capacity? is it an easy exercise to bring on new planes, or do they just pack the planes as they did pre-pandemic? helane: yes to both. in delta's case specifically, they are not selling middle seats until after april 30. when you think about that, as demand improves, they will bring back those middle seats. that is about a 30% increase in capacity without adding a single aircraft. for the other airlines that we are seeing that parked aircraft in the desert last year, those will start to come back as demand warrants. i think the airlines are trying not to get too far over their skis. i don't see them bringing back wide body aircraft this summer in huge measure because europe is still, most of europe is

still closed. but wi -- but when boris johnson announced his plan for reopening the u.k., easyjet saw 330 4% increase in bookings that night. because people are sick of being home and cooped up, and they want to get out and about. we are more worried about europe then we are about u.s. airlines because of that, because europe has been so locked down. i think also, people don't want to wear a mask for eight or 10 hour flights. jonathan: they are totally done with this. before we move on, we've got to look back at where we were. i remember talking to you in the depths of this crisis. it was depressing. the likes of warren buffett dumped his airline stocks and said the world has changed.

so many people got this wrong because so much is coming back so quickly. why is it so difficult to get a read on this industry? helane: it always has been, for almost the four decades i have covered this industry. two or three good years, maybe one great year, and then four or five so so or bad years. it is so cyclical and so dependent on consumer discretionary spending, and of course, business traffic, which you are kind of alluding to hear. may be small and medium-sized businesses that need to get on the road to generate revenue, but we are really not seeing corporate business traffic come back yet. they are still worried about getting their people back to work. we think that is a fourth-quarter event, where people will start to get back on the road. we think may be 80% of the way back by year-end 2022, and may other 20% over 2023.

jonathan: everyone was on board with the domestic story in america. everyone is on board with the likes of alaska, nicely leveraged to that story. when do we talk about the european story reopening? is there an opportunity now, or have we already missed that, too ? helane: no, i don't think we have missed it at all. i think that the international corridor starts to come back probably september, october. i am kind of hoping the summer because all of us canceled many trips to europe last year. i think we want to go back, and i think that by the end of the summer, enough vaccine will be in people's arms worldwide that we will see that start to reopen, but just start. jonathan: you know i love

catching up with you. great to get you on the program. helane becker, cowen analyst, thank you so much. i have no idea whether my vacation takes place or not. . the flight is booked with american. let's see if it happens. tom: i applaud you for having the intellectual courage to do it because the news over the last couple of days has really been difficult. he research note just in, really the first of the wonderful friday information we will see. alan ruskin, who has joined at this -- joined us this week, says, "the real canary in the demand coalminer will be the u.s. current account deficit, and it is going to blow out to something unimaginable." jonathan: what does that mean for this currency? we will talk about that in a moment. coming up, michael gapen, and

dropping by to get us up on em, damian sassower of bloomberg intelligence. tom: he's here for the bracket, jon. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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the opening. this is bloomberg surveillance. here is the price action. equities up 2/10, the s&p up -- we bounce back up 3% basis points after yesterday's session. stability in the bond market right now. we look like this on tens. a look at 175 yesterday, pullback and again this morning, down by two basis points. 16856 on 13. stability for now, not so much stability in ems. emerging market currencies, this has to be the story of the moment in global central banking. away from the fed. it is em, brazil, a hike, turkey, a hike. this morning, russia talking about a hike. do we have? we have emi strength against the

dollar on result. against the dollar on turkey. against the dollar as well in russia too. that is the story right now, nothing signalized about this em within em. there is synchronization grid interest rates are going higher. tom: what we do on friday as we review, michael pepin is joining us from berkeley. -- michael gapen is joining us from berkeley. let's get to the elephant in the room, we are cutting our stability. why are they hiking rates? >> the inflation and pulls it stronger than that. we are witnessing develop markets and the central banks cannot put -- print u.s. dollars. we are getting ahead of ourselves. these currency moves, yes, they are positive. turkey, the other is down -- they are up to 35% over the last five years. we might -- we need more than these.

jonathan: what more do they need to do? >> in turkey's case, they have to get their locals to start trumping the currency again. the fact that they are holding a ton of dollar deposits, it remains offshore and that is bringing their currency on short is at risk. they have to bring the gdp ratio downgraded i was hoping after fiscal spending, -- coming back down to the single-digit this year, good luck with luma getting exonerated. in brazil, the supreme court may decide -- there is a lot more going on and in russia, as you rightly pointed out, there rate hike, we have the sanction behind us. we may see sanctions on gas because of nordstrom too. these are real risks and biden calling put in a color did not go well in the market. -- in the eyes of the market. jonathan: --

>> it is no longer to know support the rates. this market is going to pull on that thread until it snaps. i would be staying away from emerging markets in this environment. things are setting up nicely and levels are looking a lot better. tom: thank you so much. a window into the credit market of em grid michael gapen joins us. the only reason why he is -- he is with us because he has a phd from indiana university. so much of this is the recovery of america and i want to talk about the disparity of the -- that we have always focused on east coast versus the stability in the midwest. does it surprise you to see the american resiliency and recovery given this pandemic? michael: we go back to about a year ago, first of all, good

morning to both of you. i think it has. i have always been a believer in the dynamism of the u.s. economy. even i was surprised about how quickly things turn last year and the economy was able to deliver goods answer households in a way that it had not before. business models return quickly on their head. in this case, we came out of it with an extremely strong manufacturing sector in the good side of the economy. a lot of that is located in the industrial midwest. i grew up outside of chicago for example, so it is familiar for me. so, it is not that i did not believe in the economy, but things were much more dynamic and turned much quicker than i thought could have been given the immediate onset of the pandemic. tom: some of that is quicker responsiveness or elasticity. what will be the elasticities of an age of over demand if we get an induced limb economy, is that good or bad for us? michael: i think it is good for

us. the elasticity that we are counting on here is a return of employment because we are discussing the marginal dollar going back into leisure and hospitality and service sectors, which are generally lower productivity sectors, so the only real way to end these output -- increased output in the side of the economy is to hire more. we are expecting the elasticity to be in the label market -- labor market or people sitting out of the workforce are not counted as powell mentioned. we are expecting a lot those workers to come back. at that happens, then you get this malleable supply find out of the economy that supplies -- supply-side destruction go away and we get a temporary conduct temporary inflation burst out of it, but it is largely transitory. in a sector that is often not viewed as i did not viewed as i dynamic, the services side, we are expecting the labor market elasticity or the historical

nature of the u.s. labor markets have hires and fires then you might get outside of the u.s.. we are counting on that in the next 24 months. jonathan: we had a huge conversation this week about one key variable. where did the savings go? what is the savings rate go after the next 12 months? what is it look like? what is the money got spent? or did the checks go? they are topping up a savings rate that goes down direct asked aggressively. -- it goes down aggressively. i think it is going to happen. what is your view on that? how key is that variable? michael: it is key for the near term momentum in the economy. i would say that the savings rate likely to come downgraded i'm not sure it goes back to pre-pandemic levels. i would share a bit of what mr. posen said. even with that view, you are still talking about a massive chunk, or a very large chunk, of this estimated 1.8 2 trillion in excess saving.

a lot of that 10 come back. there are two things that play. there is a structural move to a higher savings rate. there is a lot of cyclical support in that savings rate two. at that support comes out to precautionary savings goes away, pent up demand comes back, you can serve two masters here, where the savings rate can stay elevated, but you still have extra saving that can come back to sit just support spending in the next four to eight quarters. i think both are at play. jonathan: where you think a crowd is it right now with expectations? in our survey, we have the estimate to 21 at 5.6% in the median view. if fed is at six and a half. what do you think the crowd is now? michael: on a q4-q4 basis, i am at seven a. i think these are spent in four to six quarters. we are expecting a lot this to come back.

i think the momentum will be to regain these forecasts higher given the data that we think is about to be hitting the economy in the second or third quarter with the second quarter being the effect of their rebate checks that are already in households and q3 where your previous guest was saying, airlines are about to open up both domestic and perhaps later this year, -- international travel. i think in the third quarter, it is more about unlocking some of the pandemic affects. we think the next two quarters will be robust. tom: imagine seven or eight, and this is -- you mentioned seven or eight, do you have a whisper number or a tilt? is your tendency to seven and below or do you really want to go out over 8% if you get the number wrong? michael: i will go where the data says. at 7/8 is wrong, and it should be 8.5, i will go in that direction. we put about 80% of the stimulus bill in the first four quarters.

there is not a lot more that my forecast appeared i fear there could be that push it out to 2022. i'm not sure that matters. the qualitative story is still one of a very strong recovery and where it falls in each individual quarter is an economist game. i'm not sure that matters for anyone else. tom: gapen is going up 8%. jonathan: i think that catches the right. michael: if we are right, that is a very near term first. you do get a fairly sizable submitting in growth. jonathan: if it is at 65 this year, 33 next. michael: our q4 q4 is 12. that will be a dramatic flowing. jonathan: michael gapen, good to

see you. thank you. tom: do you have purdue in a bracket michael? purdue, indiana university. michael: i would definitely go indiana, but my mother went to loyola and i played in high school against -- this year, i am a rambler. jonathan: that was foreign to me. does anyone want to translate that? michael, thank you. can you translate tom? tom: no, i cannot translate. i'm trying to figure out where gonzaga is in the map. jonathan: a lot of people want to gonzaga. emailed me yesterday. tom: i do not make this up. john knows this because he had done it too. truman -- when i am doing sports

, truman is in my ear telling the robot what to do. jonathan: this advantage we write -- have right now. tom: rich truman saved me on michigan go blue basketball yesterday. jonathan: i will keep my fingers crossed, but i know you like the color blue, tom. with mohamed el-erian, bloomberg opinion columnist. i will see what he has to say. we have a viewer saying rambles all the way, no idea. we talked e.m. and the bond market later. from new york city this morning, good morning. we will ask him if queens college can play basketball. what a week it has been, tom. tom: i will take next week off. jonathan: i think you are off

next week, right? tom: i am going to hang with tyler they created. jonathan: have fun, i look forward to that. from new york city this morning, good morning. the -- alongside lisa abramowicz. i am looking forward to that with tom keene this morning. he will stick with you through the radio in the next hour. equity market higher by 11 points. this is bloomberg. ritika: russia's vladimir putin is hoping to have a public conversation with joe biden to clear the air between the two presidents, that is according to a kremlin spokesman. president biden earlier this week accused vladimir putin of being a color, moscow responding that recalled -- by recalling its ambassador from washington. in alaska, the third high-level talks between the biden administration and china tensed up almost immediately.

antony blinken it raised concerns about -- the treatment of muslim minorities and beijing's control over hong kong. chinese officials criticized the u.s. over the treatment of black americans. the u.k. is edging closer to a brexit regulation deal with the eu. it is a step that could help give firms in the city of london more access to the single market. bloomberg learned the eu can grant the u.k. partial regulatory eckel thence for some financial products. -- equivalents for some financial products. other firms are -- that is ending the increase of 50% in a little more than two months. profits are at record high, about $66,000 on average. in china, -- bloomberg learned that there are concerns about

sensitive data being collected by cameron. it uses small cameras to guide parking, autopilot, and self-driving functions. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i noticed that the tone has changed. people seem higher -- happier. i expect by december that it

will be under control, people are vaccinated, i think we will have one heck of a december. a lot of pent-up demand, pent-up money, both of our consumer site and business hybrid --. tom: he crafts the restaurant craft, the good news for him is that he opened up los angeles and this week and he saw a buzz in new york. we continue our bloomberg surveillance discussion on new york city. and really with that national cast, the mayoral race with many candidates. what is interesting here as -- i want you to imagine for a moment living two blocks from where you grew up good how many of us in america today can say that? far more important, to have a candidate come on who can't -- we can interview on national economics. the acclaimed economics program at wisconsin madison, kathryn garcia joined us. it is -- i am thrilled to have

you on. you are one of the few candidates who have been in the trenches, and has operational skills. what do you bring to the table because you have been in the daily trenches of operating this great city? kathryn: i have been a public servant for the last 14 years. you gotta know how to fold the levers entering the dials. it is a big city, there is a lot going on. it is a lot of logistics. we also know that we need to get this economy back up and running. tom: we have been getting it up and running. there is a question of budgets and budgets or bullying. he had a question for the mayor about budget cuts. how do you expect to get the dynamism going again within the fiscal realities of any great city? kathryn: there is a lot that as mayor i can do to make it so that we are helping businesses that really bring back the

dynamism that we need to see in a city and also our arts and culture. we also know that we have two deliver critical city services. we have to make sure that we have drinking water in the morning, we have to make sure that the city is clean and you have to make sure that the people feel safe. because if they do not, they do not come back. these are lessons we learned in the 1970's. tom: help me with the subway system. may be either removed from what pat floyd is doing and others, take what you learn from sanitation and bring it over to the biggest headache in new york, the subway system. kathryn: the subway is our lifeblood. for any new yorker, you have to get on the subway, it makes it so we have a much more dynamic labor market. sometimes, it is the things you do not see that are the most important grid and focusing -- important. and focusing on make sure that signals are up-to-date, making

sure you are doing think in the most efficient way possible, because we need a functioning subway system, but we have to do it effectively and efficiently. tom: how will you speak to the labor and the police. there is a great debate in new york, candidates lead with their relationship with the law enforcement. how are you coming from a different perspective, deal at work day-to-day with our police force? kathryn: the police force is a uniform force. i am the only person that has run a uniform agency. you might not think of sanitation that way, but a lot of way of how you manage this type of force at the same. you can get real culture change if you are measuring the things that you want, if you want community interactions and you promote off of that, it sends a huge message to the force. tom: how do you tie the borrowers together? the heart of the matter of modern politics, and we should point out, the former mayor has an acquaintance with the radio

network and television network, but how do you pull together these disparate burros, -- boroughs, their income and economic inequalities? kathryn: there are so many things that are similar about us. new yorkers want their government to work hard for them. they want to make sure that they are getting value for their tax dollar. they want to make sure their kids are going to great schools. this is what i see when i go to different places in all of the boroughs and the same conversations. how are you going to take care of the city? how are you going to make sure i have opportunity? how are you going to make sure that my kids have opportunity? you know. and keep it clean, keep it safe. tom: one final question and it is an important one. i do not need mean to make light of it. it is a huge issue. how are we doing on recycling? there is a school of thought -- thought that when we recycle, it

goes out there and it just disappears and nobody really knows what to do with it. as our recycling an effective program? kathryn: hours is different than the rest of the country -- ours is different than the rest of the country. if you live in manhattan, all of your paper is going to staten island and being made into a new box on staten island. and plastic, there are strong markets, as i'm sure you know it bloomberg, or metal and plastics. tom: i have one final question. what you need to do before but this contest? what are you going to do in campaigning? kathryn: it is really about getting my name out there. the message is resonating grid so, -- resonating. that is boots on the ground, talking to voters. old-style. tom: thank you so much. kathryn garcia, her operational expertise with sanitation in new

york city, a democratic candidate for new york city, mayor, for those of you across the nation and worldwide, -- it harkens to the tensions we see in the 2022 contrast and into the next presidential election as well. what we will do right now is set up my weekend readings to get out to the end of this quarter and to get into it whatever is going to come with what is an original economy. we have heard this this week from all guests. the originality of the boom economy, 70%, 8%. the resiliency of the stock market. futures up 26 and the real miracle here in the last two months, the vix on a 31 handle and a 21 handle. what am i going to be looking for? i want to recalibrate on two core items in my reading, when is economics and the other goes to the bond market. i am sure jon ferro will talk about that in the real yield

this afternoon. in the economy, i really have a mystery about the multipliers and mold good working at a boom economy that maybe we saw in 47, 48, but anyone watching this is never ever seen. we have no clue what those multipliers look like to consumption, to investment, to investment. i go to alan ruskin of deutsche bank. the net e-sports -- net exports. the other mystery is the bond markets and you heard this from wells fargo, not once but twice this week on this program, which is, what is a bond bear market look like? price down, yield up. you get one month statements where that retells our institutional and you get the second month statement, retail or institutional. then there is the third month statement, and you say to yourself, this feels like the stock market. when was the last time we experienced that?

that will be some of our questions in the next week as well. coming out, someone who is really laden with a graphical view of the economy. -- and stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now with equities, futures topping on the s&p 500 of nine points. advancing nine tens of 1%. your yield, 170 almost on eight u.s. 10 year. breaking news, here is mike mckee. mike: the federal reserve is letting the supplementary leverage ratio it granted to banks expire as planned on march 31st. the banks who have over $250 billion in assets was told 3% of their leverage exposure in tier one capital, which generally means equity. the biggest banks, they have to hold 5%, the leveraged assets are not risk-weighted. they include treasuries held at the fed. the rules put in place to ensure that banks have enough capital

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