tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg March 21, 2021 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
7:00 pm
to learn how to reverse insulin resistance and lose weight effectively, go online to golo.com. once again, that's golo.com. haidi: good morning. we are coming down to asia's major market open. shery: welcome to daybreak asia. our top stories. asian stocks are poised for a cautious start to the week with rising bond yields and inflation still very much in focus. the turkish lira plunges to a record low after another central bank chief gets replaced. china and the u.s. end two days
7:01 pm
of meetings without any announcements. both sides called of the talks candid and constructive. the vaccine spat between britain and the e.u. opens barely healed wounds. haidi: you mentioned we are looking like a cautious debt up to a -- cautious set up to a new trading week in asia. we will be watching for moves when it comes to some of the major insurers given we are still experiencing this once in a century heavy torrential rain across much of new south wales. we had a report from australia saying they received more than 2000 claims already. we will continue to watch some of the insurers. we have seen modest gains when it comes to the start of trading in asia. watching for emerging markets after we had the huge plunge in the turkish lira.
7:02 pm
another reshuffle at the top of the circ -- the turkish central bank. switching out to s&p futures, tracking a little bit lower. not much of a handover from wall street. about the dow and the s&p ending lower on friday. continuing to watch the 10-year treasury yield retreating. ending at just over 1.7%. not much of a move when it comes to the dollar. trading at the window it handled. shery: markets are watching the geopolitical environment. the first face-to-face talks between the u.s. and china since joe biden becoming president ended without any visible progress following a contentious start to the meeting. let's bring in tom mackenzie. they could not even agree on the climate change summit. what came out of these talks? tom: you are right to start with
7:03 pm
what was not agreed. they did not agree to additional talks. they did not agree to the summit between the two presidents. they did not agree to a framework to address issues ranging from tariffs to export controls to issues involving cyber security and human rights. both sides did say these talks were constructive. they have enabled both sides to clear the air. that is what the u.s. said. what it has crystallized is that you have a biden administration that for now has taken the trump's policies, tighten them and lead an additional focus on human rights. on the chinese side, you have increasingly confident china on the back of the economic recovery we are seeing but also on their ability to have crushed the virus in china. underscoring their focus on what they say our national security issues for which they will not back down.
7:04 pm
we did hear from u.s. secretary of state antony blinken, pointing to the multitude of areas both countries see overlap even if they have fundamental disagreements globally. >> we were also able to have a candid conversation over these many hours on an expensive agenda. on iran, on north korea, on afghanistan, on climate. our interests intersect. tom: and the u.s. side are going back. they are discussing with president joe biden because policy review continues in white house -- the white house and washington. haidi: a lot of this felt like it was about signaling, playing said there respective domestic audiences. what has been the reaction within china? tom: you have the state run news agency saying what they had agreed to was to set up a
7:05 pm
working group on climate change. this has been an area that china has underscored as potential opportunity for closer cooperation. they said there were some agreements around easing the movement of diplomats and addressing some of the issues on curbs of journalists. the u.s. has yet to comment on any of those issues. we heard from former chinese officials in jb -- in beijing on a development forum where they said they sell these former officials, areas for cooperation in terms of emerging technologies. the military was another area. climate change once again. monetary policy was also an issue. these officials said the u.s. needs to treat china with respect. haidi: tom mackenzie in beijing. we'll have more analysis ahead
7:06 pm
on the u.s. china talks. some perspective on what comes next. the turkish lira is plunging after president erica one ousted the third central bank chief in two years. let's get more from our asia across asset editor. i have to say this seems like a rotating door, not an enviable position to have. talk us through the reaction we have had in markets. >> the asian markets were the first to react to what was a shocking decision perhaps should not have been a shocking decision from the turkish president. we did see the turkish lira plunging. another blow to investor confidence in turkey's economy. it does raise consigned the country will once again embarq
7:07 pm
on a path of rock-bottom interest rates. he had sought to restore the central bank's credibility and he had succeeded. investors were piling to the stocks and bonds following his appointment when he managers had welcomed his moves -- money managers had welcomed his attempts to bring interest rates under control. this is another blow to confidence in the turkish markets. shery: the previous governor, we saw him raising rates by more than 800 basis points. this chart on the bloomberg showing we had some lira weakness. we had seen some more strength in the lira. what does the future hold now we are seeing this huge change? >> that is right. hi replacements has pledged to
7:08 pm
use monetary policy tools effectively. at this point, that looks to be doing very little to soothe investors. the optimism had come from the central bank, allowing rates to stay higher for some time shared after last week's decision, which was higher than expected, that looked pretty good. at this point, there seems to be very little to hearken lira bulls. it is difficult to see the currency going much higher. shery: the asian cross asset manager. let's turn to vonnie quinn. vonnie: the e.u. is escalating its spat with the u.k. over exports. they will probably reject requests for the astrazeneca vaccine.
7:09 pm
the u.k. -- that you has demanded the u.k. honor the vaccine contract. scientists tracing the origins the pandemic believe they have identified a possible source. the findings of the x arts -- the experts are said to be released this week. they're expecting to show parallels to the 2002 responding of sars. the report is likely to be far from conclusive and more studies are planned. the tokyo olympic games will take place without overseas spectators. the decision was announced by the organizing committee after a five party meeting that included the ioc and the tokyo government. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
7:10 pm
i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: let's take a look at one of the big movers. crown resorts shares rising 18% after the takeover approach, rising to $11 60 versus 11.85. still 17 and a half percent. blackstone group offering to buy crown resorts. blackstone already owns 10% of crown, offering to buy the rest of the stock for 11.85 in cash. according to a crown statement on monday. the biggest shareholder is billionaire james paca. they are going ahead and assessing the proposal. there is no certainty.
7:11 pm
we are seeing blackstone kind of pouncing on crown as it tries to get through the crisis that is a threat to the australian gaming business. still ahead, we have the credit suisse agent investment conference covered. sophie, who are you speaking to today? sophie: good morning from the 80th floor in hong kong. we have a great lineup. we be speaking with the credit suisse head of aipac global research to map out opportunities in the region. will be speaking with seth fisher from always says management on the outlook of japan. amid the ongoing debate over the trillion -- the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, we will get insights from betsey stevenson from the university of michigan. stay tuned for all of that. this is bloomberg.
7:14 pm
haidi: the credit suisse agent investment conference is kicking off virtually. it brings together top global, political and academic figures as well as an institutional representation and hedge fund investors. let's cross over to hong kong. sophie is joined by our next guest. sophie: we kick it off with erica, the credit suisse head of aipac securities ahead of the asian investment conference taking place here in hong kong and virtually. good morning. thank you for joining us, head of a very busy agenda purity will be sitting down virtually with the former u.s. trade representative to discuss the
7:15 pm
future of u.s. china ties. given we have just had the talks in alaska, is there any bearing on market sentiment from this relationship? >> good morning, sophie. thank you for coming for this talk. on the alaska conversation over the last two days, i would say after four years of tense and volatile relationship between china and the u.s., it would be very lateral to -- very natural to hope for something a bit warmer. we also want to take a look at in recent weeks, a lot of the messaging from both sides point to both sides going into the anchorage meeting with somewhat different expectations and priorities. it should not be a huge surprise that the conversation turned out to be not what people were hoping for. we need to think about long-term
7:16 pm
relationships. it does take time for a relationship to build and to be rebuilt. if we also look at a the meantime in the last four years, both sides, on the china and u.s. side, both sides have been more assertive as well. if we look at a silver lining, silver lining -- expectation has been set a bit lower. any positive development will be good news for the market. and also, i think that now, both sides have their key issues on the table instead of beating around the bush. both sides can go back to regroup, detect stop and strategize how to work on these issues. near term, we may be looking for some retaliation action that could have short-term negative impact on sentiment. sophie: aside from the relationship from the u.s.,
7:17 pm
markets also focusing on the outlook for policy tightening. the shift toward curbing financial rest. chinese stocks have been on a down trend since the lunar new year. is this a healthy correction? >> we also have to look at in 2020, the market did really well. a little bit of a pullback is quite healthy for the market. we saw a little bit of redemption from mutual funds. some of the overheated sectors got some profit taking. i would say that is a pretty healthy correction so that we can now -- when facing 2021 being the year of recovery especially in china where the pandemic is generally under control, there is going to be more room to run. the two themes in china that
7:18 pm
will be focusing on, one is the dual circulation. that is going to be driving the consumption growth. disruption in terms of technology. disruption of goods and services sector. that is driving a lot of the growth in china. we should not forget about the sustainability commitments by china as well. that came pretty clear during the recent meeting and a lot of the clean energy, renewable sectors is an area investors should be paying more attention to. sophie: on disruption, china's market and the economy reflecting dominance of tech players. there are regulatory risks a looming heart -- limit large. how is that creating your outlook for the tech sector? >> i would say the china tech sector is firmly part of the global supply chain. i would say there is a lot of codependence around the world in terms of the china tech as both
7:19 pm
a supplier to the global food chain but also as an ultimate consumer of a lot of the products. near term, there could be a bit more of a sanction or some tariffs or some news. fundamentally, the china tech has a lot of room to run especially if you think about china's focus on grooming a lot of the engineers. there is also the private market that is supportive of the companies coming out. even on the post pandemic, back to somewhat normal way of working and living. some of the innovation and adoption is here to stay like cloud infrastructure and that is an area china is pretty strong. sophie: the chinese securities regulator speaking of the need to curb inflows. this is a time when the financial sector is opening up.
7:20 pm
foreign investors are seen to gain more exposure to chinese assets. credit suisse planning to triple headcount. will be the key areas of focus echo -- what will be the key areas of focus? >> for us, we are looking to leverage china's ongoing liberalization of the finance market because we do see tremendous opportunity for a firm like credit suisse where we could leverage our global capability and also our on the ground insight and expertise to marriage both sides and provide investors on the ground that differentiated access and content. if you look more closely to what i do every day, which is securities research, we are looking to build out a footprint where we will have a good size of a china team. a one china team where we will
7:21 pm
have colleagues in hong kong working with our colleagues in china. sophie: expectations around recovery globally has seen a tilt toward cyclical praise . what does that mean for risk assets? do you see growth performance hitting a peak any time soon? >> talking about overall a reflation and some of the asset price rising. certainly if we look at the high bond yields, it is procyclical. i think that is quite a normal phenomenon. we kind of zoom into aipac. fundamentals are sufficiently strong in aipac. that should alleviate concerns related to rising bond yields. higher bond yields in the developed market will benefit
7:22 pm
aipac. historically, asia markets have performed well in absolute term and also relative to the world when the yield rises. when the bond yield rises relates to is a reflection of stronger growth. i think that if you look at then, the markets will benefit more from higher inflation expectation then it suffers from higher rates. -- expectation than it suffers from higher rates. if it is going to be a higher rate, that is not so good for asia. that is what we witnessed in the last month or so. if you look at the stronger forward -- i would say there seems to be -- the signal seems to be having a bit of a limit on the real rights.
7:23 pm
if it is going to be higher inflation inflection, that is good for aipac and i think that going forward, that is going to be the bigger growth driver. sophie: thank you so much. joining us from the credit suisse asian investment conference. back to year. shery: our exclusive coverage of the credit suisse asian investment conference continues this week. we will hear from more speakers including the asia ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪
7:25 pm
7:26 pm
joins us for more details. we are still seeing the stock hold onto most of the gains. 18% higher this morning. this is a big move for blackstone given the amount of regulatory risk that it faces. >> it is. it is a big bit it can somehow see a path past that. because obviously crown last month was found unfit to operate its sydney casinos. it is also facing regulatory investigations into its right to run its melbourne casino, which is the flagship property. there is a risk that crown is found to -- found unfit to operate casinos across the australian gaming group. if the results of those other inquiries follow the path of the sydney investigation.
7:27 pm
that is obviously reflected in the share price. that is one of the reasons why blackstone thinks this is a good time to buy crown. it is facing regulatory restrictions on all fronts. it is in crisis mode. shery: is this an out for james packer? >> it is certainly an out. it is something he has tried to do at least twice the last couple of years. he tried to sell the whole company in 2018. those talks broke down abruptly when news of the talks reached the media. he tried to sell 20% of crown. that also fell through. what we have yet to hear -- he has been stepping from corporate life for recent years. shery: our asian business reporter with the blackstone bid
7:29 pm
(announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. get gym results at home. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now.
7:30 pm
7:31 pm
overseas from the postponed olympic games. trade date it will be in focus, expert numbers for the first 20 days of the month are due later today. kia motors are holding their agm monday. plus exclusive insights from our exclusive interview with the defense mentor who held talks with his counterpart next week told bloomberg they consider japan what of its crucial partners. >> our u.s. counterparts had no particular request or demand and delivered their stance as we delivered hours. i believe south korea's new southern policy is based on openness, transparency and inclusiveness, coinciding with the u.s. into pacific strategy. we explain the dialogue we have in having the chinese military counterparts, in setting up a hotline to continue communication regarding flying into the korean air defense zone and how we are discussing and taking action on that matter. there is the matter of history related issues.
7:32 pm
we feel korea-japan relations are needed, in terms of defense cooperation. protecting the korean peninsula is centered on the korea-u.s. alliance and we believe korean-japan security cooperation is a valuable asset, which is why we need to maintain this. our military did so last year, and we plan to do this year as well. we will continue to hold military talks, and continue cooperation in the future. the aircraft carriers were preparing against potential threats in the future. it is a matter of operational range for the korean peninsula, and to secure flex ability for matter such as mandatory and assistance. >> that was a south korean defense minister speaking to bloomberg, after that u.s. secretary of state's visit to the reason -- region. the defense minister hinting at a military partnership with japan in our interview. this is significant. what is it say about the blinken
7:33 pm
visit? >> a shift in the joe biden administration from the previous trump administration, in terms of how they're going to be approaching the south korea and japan bilateral relationship. in 2019, donald trump stepped away as mediator and left the bilateral between the two countries to handle on their own , this, coming from south korea calling military cooperation with japan an important one, and crucial. it is to the development to hit how the u.s. will go forth with south korea and japan relations, and taking a more active role in defrosting the relations. >> he also mentioned an aircraft carrier, housing get is this? >> in the interview -- how significant is this? >> in the interview did not
7:34 pm
elaborate on what proximity the aircraft character years -- aircraft carriers would be. this is a larger move from the administration embarking on one of the largest defense buildups for the country, in addition to the aircraft carrier there are plans for a nuclear powered summering. north korea has heightened its criticism against south korea and u.s. conducting military drills, calling it what they normally call it, rehearsals for war and invasion. this could also be seen as an infix -- extension of what south korea was pushed to do under trunk, increasing its military presence in the middle east as well, such as guarding waterways in the middle east from an area where 70% of south korea's oil imports are coming from. >> what about the idea of setting up a hotline with china? is a significant avoiding potential miscalculations? >> well, the defense minister
7:35 pm
also did not elaborate further on this. he basically told us he informed his u.s. counterparts there will be continuing communication, reiterating south korea's alliance to the south korea-u.s. military alliance. they said they want to help prevent further conflict for chinese aircraft carriers, chinese aircraft flying into south korean air identification zone known as kadiz. they are maintaining three hotlines and who knows that additional ones, he has not hinted either way. he reiterated this, in order to emphasize south korea's alliance with the u.s. >> now let's get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. >> the turkish lira is plunging
7:36 pm
in reaction to the president gone' -- erdogan's ousting a third appointment in three years. the new governor pledged to deliver permanent price stability using monetary policy. the people's bank of china says it has room to add liquidity into the economy keeping leverage ratio stable. the governor said the debt to gdp level remained stable with policy in the normal range and said the financial policy framework would take climate change into account, investing in green bonds, and putting caps on high carbon assets. china move to reshuffle the pboc monetary policy committee, has authority shift away from stimulus toward curbing financial risk. an economist and formal state council deputy director will replace to others on the committee. the moves are online with
7:37 pm
shifting members after three years, according to state media. hsbc will reopen its main hong kong office, after it was closed last week in the wake of three positive covid cases. the bank says the office underwent a deep clean, and disinfection, and precautionary measures will be in place. only critical staff are advised to return. the outbreak comes as a wave hit the business community. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. >> sticking with the virus, vaccine tensions are boiling over in europe, amid deepening post-brexit spats between the eu and u.k. danny astrazeneca vaccines and ingredients to the u.k. until the drugmaker fulfills delivery obligations. we have seen this escalating tussle over vaccine supplies, over the astra shot, what is the
7:38 pm
latest that has developed? >> just what you said, and officials told bloomberg today it would not be inclined to permit shipments of the vaccine or vaccine supplied to the u.k., until astrazeneca, which has cut its promises to the eu, basically in half, for the first quarter, you know, makes good on its obligations. this comes against a backdrop of really, you know, pretty serious problems in europe, over vaccinations. i mean germany and france have only vaccinated about 6% of their people. the u.k. and u.s. about 20%. there are far behind, tensions are getting high, people are getting upset, the virus is getting worse, so it is not a great situation right now. >> here in the u.s., vaccination drive in full swing but at the same time we are seeing infections, and deaths following for a few weeks.
7:39 pm
what happens next, given that we continue to see people be ready to go back to business as usual? the cdc now reducing school guidelines to allow social distancing of three feet instead of six feet. i don't feel it is something we measure, but we are starting to open up, and people are caring less about these restrictions? >> i think that is right, i mean, people are caring less, partly because the vaccines are taking effect. if you look at the infection rates and deaths among older people, it has shrunk to almost nothing, and it is becoming a disease of young people. most health experts say, it is way too early. we are still only a 20% of the people who have had it. i guess another 25% excuse me have the vaccine and another 25 percent have had covid.
7:40 pm
so, there still a long way to go toward, you know, protections. we are in a race with the variants. there's an uptick in cases in michigan, where they have, the highest per capita and the second-most by number of variant. easy places like new jersey, new york city is not doing fabulous, and it is up to 50% or 60% variants now, so it is a real threat. we have seen very large declines of cases and deaths. what we are plateauing recently. there are little bumps up, and some states are seeing increases. so, you know, definite improvements, you know, people are sick of it, as health experts say, we are not out of the woods yet. >> yen, when it comes to vaccine
7:41 pm
hesitancy, we have been talking a lot about this. but we are seeing in places like hong kong and here in australia. how much of a worry is that, when you're talking up places where there is a sense of urgency and a sense that many cases, right? actual cases or clusters. and there is the unwillingness to potentially get vaccinated? >> yeah, well, i mean, it, it is an issue. as long as either you have not had it or there is no vaccine, you can have it. and we have seen how quickly outbreaks can happen. i me, one small example, duke university had durham, north carolina, had i think 200- something cases all semester. end, in one week they had that many. they had to close down immediately. this thing, especially with the more transmissible variants could be exceptionally contagious, and it can happen very quickly.
7:42 pm
so, hesitancy is a big deal. there's going to be a segment of the population that sadly, populations, everywhere, that sadly cannot get it or do not want to get it, are going to be susceptible to it. it is a sad fact. >> and fisher, bloomberg news editor, with the latest on the coronavirus pandemic. next, the birth of a unicorn. singapore analytics pops a billion-dollar alleyway should and its latest funding round. -- billion-dollar valuation, after its latest funding round. we speak with the ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪
7:44 pm
♪ >> what the u.s. and china seeking an edge amid heightened trade tensions, attack the court is benefiting. singapore's patsnap lets researchers gain insight into innovations around the world and it has drawn investment from softbank's vision fun and tencent. let's bring in the ceo. jeffrey, great to have you with us. how has your business been doing since the pandemic? >> patsnap has been doing ok around the world. we provide innovation intelligence to our customer, helping their with their r&d rollout for the next two years and businesses find. >> where are you getting most of your business from when it comes
7:45 pm
to r&d investments? >> yes. actually, for us, our market is where there are a lot of r&d expenditures and investments. globally, it will be the u.s., china, japan, germany, and so on. >> qc ship -- do you see any shift in that dynamic arising from the pandemic? >> no, actually the r&d expenditure has been quite consistent for the last couple of years. of course, one main trend will be asia. and to a degree china, there expenditure in r&d has been growing quickly. >> where are you biggest priority geographically? -- where are your biggest priorities geographically? >> where there is a lot of r&d investment. the u.s. is our biggest market. secondly asia, specifically china. and europe, specifically germany's market as well.
7:46 pm
>> what is your plan for expansion in those markets? >> yes, we will continue to invest to have more market presence. and products localized for the local market. from our experience the last couple of years operating a different markets, customers no are really asking for localized products that have local user interface and experience, so that is something will continue to invest in. >> do see, i'm curious how the pandemic affected your business and what you say is the r&d boom? >> yes, in fact actually, even with the pandemic, fortunately enough for us, our business continues to grow globally here i near. i think that is due to a couple of factors. first, large enterprise customers, their r&d landscaper
7:47 pm
outlook, they are looking at 3-5 years, so it will not be because of a potential downturn any year that they would change their r&d strategy for the next 3-5 years. secondly, because of the pandemic even more, they need to invest and innovating in new product offerings because of the changes in a lot of consumer behavior, a lot of market dynamics. so innovation is more important for them and they have to invest in that. because of that, more than dust even more so, they need our tools to understand the -- because of that even more so they need our tools to understand the landscape. >> in washington and silicon valley, the world economic form a few years back said china displayed the u.s. as the top research publisher in stock assignment -- in signs and engineering. -- in science and engineering.
7:48 pm
do you see that playing out? >> in the high level in terms of patents filings, china is leading now it seems since a few years ago. but i think innovation comes in different flavors and different aspects. in terms of absolute numbers, yes, maybe china is leading in several fronts. but, from our understanding, analyzing it, china patents in terms of filing there must not application innovation, increasing application and the patient. the u.s. on the rest of the world still holding a lot of key foundational technology patents. so a deep dive a different sectors in different areas to have a better perspective on who has a better engine technology investment. >> when you say china is leading a number of patents, there is a perception in washington china
7:49 pm
is launching the creation of an alternative technological order and that is why they are systematically trying to get all these patents to get companies to come together and have a unified industrial policy. do you see something like that on the ground? >> from our experience, we do see china having a strong industrial policy that drives consistent strategy, yes, that is what we feel for our team in china. >> patsnap founder and ceo. next, a big hit in oil prices but a $75 million for evident payout -- dividend payout. tune into hear more from the big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis, live from our studio and hong kong. listed in vile the app or bloombergradio.com -- listen in
7:51 pm
7:52 pm
removed from that wealth management unit. maybe making it an independent entity adding that the grainsil -- greensill affair has been an asset management problem. >> a focus now to get as much back in terms of cash, to our investors in that sense. but i am actually confident that we will come out stronger, from this episode. it is a learning process. >> blackstone offered $6.2 billion for crown resorts and its casino properties in melbourne and sydney. the offer tops 11 australian dollars per share represent he a 20% premium over the company's last close. crown says it is not formed review of the proposal. blackstone bought 10% of the casino operator last year.
7:53 pm
baidu is increasing than abrupt shares allocated to resell investors in hong kong amid heavy demand for secondary listing -- retail investors in hong kong amid heavy demand for secondary listing, it's offer was oversubscribed. it is increasing shares to retail investors while reducing the institutional offer. the stock will begin trading in hong kong tuesday. we have south korea breaking news for the first 20 days of march. we are getting export numbers, rising 13.6% year on year. when it comes to exports to the u.s., rising 7.4%. to china more than 23% year on year. the import numbers also rising, 16.3% year on year, but we need to ever set out because that is the first 20 days of march -- we need to average that out, another month it seems a strong
7:54 pm
export rebound led by semiconductors. we continue to see strong external demand. haidi: that strengthening demand in the global recovery will be good news for the big oil giants. we are talking about the biggest oil company taking a giant hit last year. the big news continuing to pay dividends. saudi armco also feeling optimistic on demand and planning a bigger investment in china. bloomberg's su keenan joins us now. let's start with the 40 part percent decline in 2020 earnings. su: as you saidh, the world's biggest oil couple heaidi, war. net income fell 44% in 2022 $49 billion. it's $75 billion dividend did survived and it will make the payout which is the largest of any listed company on most all
7:55 pm
of which goes to saudi arabia's government. that dividend a key source of cash for the kingdom, which was hit hard by the pandemic, in terms of its energy markets. oil prices have rebounded significantly, if you look at the big picture for brent crude. it has come back to above where it was a year ago in march, even though it took a big hit last week. and it is down .75% in asian trading this morning. aramco ceo importantly is very optimistic about demand recovery in 2021, particularly in the second half. the ceo said, prices have so far responded to the recovery, and we need to be prudent. but they're comparing everything against 2020. and in the rearview mirror, things are looking pretty good. they also point out capital expenditures will only be ready $5 billion, below their previous -- 35 billion dollars, below their previous guidance.
7:56 pm
shery: we are also seeing cute recovery in asia and aramco planning to expand investments in china. what doing no? -- what do we know? su: they're saying the oil recovery in china and india has been buoyant, near pre-virus levels in india and above pre-virus levels in china, while demand is still lagging in europe and the u.s.. meanwhile, they're interested in planning to quote expand and intensify their cooperation with china, teaming up on research area that includes china and a production for natural gas. importantly they see several projects involving green fuel and chemical research. saudi arabia it really wants to get in on reducing hydrocarbons. haidi: su keenan in new york. coming up, more big guestss live from the credit suisse agent investment conference.
7:57 pm
8:00 pm
♪ shery: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: asia." from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york. haidi: asian markets have open for trade. asian stocks a cautious but steady open with inflation at the top of investors mind. a big treasury auction will keep the bond market on edge. china and the u.s. and the alaska summit without a clear path forward differences on
8:01 pm
tariffs, and security threats from tech. and the fed president of richmond said set for a strong year. we hear this hour from tom barkin. sophie: live in hong kong at the credit suisse asian investment conference (aic) we will speak with representatives. shery: japan and south korea coming online, a mixed picture. the nikkei and topics down -- topix down since the boj policy framework changes how last week. real estate and materials they declines. the topix down almost 1%. the bank of japan said it will focus stock purchases on etf
8:02 pm
tracking. the boj set a wider movement range for bond yields. korea is gaining ground, the kospi up .2% after we had news the 20 to exports for march rose for the daily average 16.1% year on year. at sports to china jumping 20%. -- exports to china jumping 20%. the korean won recovery. we are seeing downside pressure on the korean won continue. haidi: the treasury market is when we are watching, into the start of the trading week. an upbeat note for treasuries that could clear the way to push stocks little higher here in asia. we are seeing cindy stocks up .3%, and watching -- sydney
8:03 pm
stocks up .3% and watching crown resorts up 18% after the takeover bid from blackstone. we are also watching insurers with ongoing torrential rain and storms across new south wales. futures fluctuating, down .1%, after the u.s. markets, down s&p 500 ending the friday session lower. the 10 year yield at 1.7 at the moment and we continue to watch emerging markets and the impact on asian currencies after the huge slight in that turkish lira, dollar layout jumping 17% in early monday trading, after another change at the top of the turkish central bank. mliv bloggers saying turkey should be limited in terms of follow-up from the lira's decline. the turkey store is the main things on our mind. do asian investors care about turkish lira volatility? mark, one of the two sides of
8:04 pm
the arguing as to whether he see the impact here in asia? >> and japan and particular, we get a lot of interest in the turkish lira. japanese retail investors have a history of being heavily involved in high-yield currencies around the world. we are seeing it with the brazilian and the turkish lira. it appears again they are long positions in the turkish lira, if you look at what is being reported by some of the money traders in tokyo who focus on retail investors. that suggests the japanese investors still heavily skewed toward being long, lira short of the japanese yen. we are seen in the past when the layer becomes volatile, can cause a sudden exit by japanese investors, making the situation even worse. we saw the and 2019 in january and august of that year, where japanese investors pared back on
8:05 pm
their positions in the turkish lira and it made the decline swifter. people will certainly be watching to see, whether or not japan does a similar thing today, and whether or not they do start bailing out there lira -- their lira positions. it could make it difficult situation worse. and they do have a quarter end of the year coming up as well and that may push them toward wanting to reduce their exposure. certainly, took as a place to watch for the direction of the turkish lira. shery: mark, and currencies have reacted to the developments on the vaccination campaign globally, who is making progress on who is not. when it comes to the latest flareup with the eu now blocking astrazeneca shots toward the ok, that going to have-- u.k., is that going to have an impact on g10 currencies? >> the dollar would have been stronger today on the risk off element, partly to do a turkey.
8:06 pm
when the european union threatened to block exports in this way, that will make people defensive against european currencies. and the pound is the one that first comes into focus, because the bulk of the astrazeneca is derived from the u.k. but it also is reminder european leaders have made missteps in the way they have handled the pandemic. so it is not exclusively something for sterling, it also reflects poorly on the euro as well, and that is why you are seeing the euro and the pound trading weaker today. even other european leaders make want to make this a political issue between that u.k. at themselves, there are consequences for the foreign exchange market, and the dollar will get an additional bit because of the disruption to the euro and the pound. you also seen the aussie coming off a bit as well. so we will probably see more prolonged dollar strength in the beginning of the week. the euro is sitting pretty close to its 200 day moving average, which it has been trading above
8:07 pm
since may of last year. we mel see -- we may well see a rush to sell the euro, it looks like a lively week for the single currency and coming toward month end number that could bring more people into by dollars as well. >> mliv strategist mark cranfield. you can follow and our market live block at mliv and let's now turn with vonnie quinn for first word headlines. you have more on that u.k.-e.u. spat? vonnie: that u.k. escalating the spat with exports, and they will review exports severely and will probably reject them until the drugmaker fulfills obligations to the eu. the two sides accuse each other of nationalism.
8:08 pm
scientists tracing the origin of the pandemic believe they have identified a possible fourth, china's wildlife trade. the findings of experts convened by the chinese government and the buick show are expected to show parallels to the 2002 spotting of sars, the fast born coronavirus spread by civet cats. more studies are planned including some outside china. the tokyo olympics games will take place without overseas spectators, a decision announced by the organizing committee after a five party meeting saturday that included the ioc and the tokyo government. tickets purchased by foreigners will be refunded. the move is set to lead to millions of dollars of losses with 600,000 from overseas originally expected to attend. hsbc will reopen its main hong kong office after it was close last week in the wake of three positive covid cases. the banks of the office underwent a deep cleaning, and
8:09 pm
precautionary measures continue to be in place. critical staff only are advised to return. a wave of infections hit the city's businesses and expatriate community. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, we returned to the credit suisse asian investment conference (aic) and sophie kamaruddin is there. sophie: after the break we will speak with seth fisher of oasis management, to discuss the outlook for shareholder return as the japanese prime minister look to maintain corporate governance as shareholder activism ramps up on cash-rich japanese corporate. also speaking with betsey stevenson at the university of michigan and her work spotlighting the uneven impacts of the pandemic, and her views on fiscal response in the united states. this is bloomberg. ♪
8:12 pm
♪ shery: the credit suisse asian investment conference (aic) has kicked off in hong kong. sophie kamaruddin is joined by one of the key speakers at the event. sophie: we will speak with seth fischer, the founder and cio of oasis management, with a focus on japan. you have seen interesting measures taken by boj, with
8:13 pm
their etf buying program with a focus and that push their program to outpace that nikkei 225, as we have seen from the boj. seth, with that backdrop, what are the implications for the japan shareholders. >> this move, it is about time. it has taken a long time for japan to move from the nikkei, is a smart index, as you know, price weighted index, to fully following etf's that track topix. that move, we have been anticipating off far long time, as japan's topix sector is going to move to three indices. the premier, standard and growth. the premier index is going to have 500 companies, as opposed to the 2000 names in topix now. that will make it easier for that boj to buy etf's that track topix.
8:14 pm
it has a negative impact on the nikkei, and a couple of companies that are overweighted in the nikkei. i anticipate that nikkei index could continue to underperform topix in the near future. sophie: we are heading into the fiscal year and are here from japan, inc., on buybacks and dividends. the topix dividend yield, after last year and all-time high,, what is your expectation for shareholder returns? >> very high. japanese companies have had record profits this past year. corporate governance is increasing to accelerate. there's a massive change in management at the top, which is trying to improve profitability. we have seen that across the board. we have seen that in the speed of engagement with management. we have seen it and what management is prepared to do. we have seen it even in terms of hostile m&a which has come to
8:15 pm
japan for the first time ever, with japanese companies taking hostile activity on other japanese comedies. that means management is working to produce higher returns. and that will lead higher dividends. it is a great time to be a japanese investor. yvonne: last year, -- sophie: last year, oasis modest proposals. will you crank up the heat this year or more leeway as the recovery is still ongoing? >> we find because you have prepared to be public a lot of names when necessary, companies are paired to work more with us privately more often and more frequently. and yes, we will be public this year in a couple of names. in other words, we will ask all shareholders to have their voices heard to management. are we asked management to listen to shareholders, at agm's or egm's and put four proxies,
8:16 pm
and we will do that again this year. overall, 90% of what we do remains private. we are perfectly happy for the company to take credit for those changes. we have seen those changes happen throughout the year, or comedies have gone ahead and expanded revenue avenues -- companies have expanded revenue by increasing overseas, consolidating factories in japan, and worked on other cost-saving measures, as well as other ways to improve margins by pursuing other business lines. that is happened across the board and we have been doing it across a lot of sectors. sophie: can you tell us specifically on any opportunities that may be knocking on your door? >> [laughter] no, we have seen this past year --, you know, we have seen this past year big changes in mna. we have a company we were public about and invested in shimachu.
8:17 pm
we suggested in the home sector other companies that they should merge with other companies. we push the president to look at that aggressively. they found a partner, in ecm. that partner announced they would partner with them and effectively take over shimachu, at a 20% premium. then another company came and paid a 30% on top of that. the second bid was not friendly, but it was accepted by the board, because it was at a higher price. that is as seachange in japan, that there was hostile activity accepted. we have seen that in tokyo down, which -- dome, which i think you know that we have in public on in terms of enormous profitability, and measured increased profitability. yes, mitsui, sorry, then tokyo fudisan, as well as yumori
8:18 pm
group, a takeover for that group at a 45% premium. fudisan announce a takeover bid at a 45% premium and that was effectively a white knight and we all worked together at that and that is going to improve the stadium for all fans. it is going to make every buddy a better experience. and yes, a much more profitable experience in this case, mitsui food, the new owners. we have seen independent boards and independent committees, say when there have been takeover bids, that they are not fair. and we saw that last year in family mart, where they announced they would take over the rest of family mart, and the intervention committee said that is not a fair price, and that is also on record of activity in japan. so, s.e.c. this activity's -- so as we see this activity we see better and more fair activity
8:19 pm
for minority shareholders. sophie: seth, let's talk about hazama ando, your engineering topic of the last conference, shares are above levels and then she added a buyback. oasis indicated proposals may be forthcoming to protect shareholder value, what is the latest on that? >> i am not yet prepared to speak publicly about what we might or might not do with the agm. we continue to work with the board and dependent directors, to improve the company's profitability as well as to improve the overall value. hazaman is one of the cheapest companies in japan and it sits on enormous amounts of cash and that buyback is only the start of what they need to do. i think we should see a lot more therefrom the company. sophie: seth fischer, from oasis management, thinking for joining us -- thank you for
8:20 pm
joining us. haidi: let's look at the early part of the tokyo session. it was reported there was a fire at a facility, semiconductor factory, that is likely to have an impact on the supply of chips for the on mobile industry, and we see -- for the automobile industry and we see a decline at .75%. they had to halt production at the plant friday after a fire broke out. we are also watching retail, the biggest player on the nikkei 225, declines of 2% for the heavyweight, possibly due to the boj selecting the topix over that nikkei 225 for their etf buying and purchases. we are also watching tokyo marine, another aspect of the fallout from the greensill exposure. falling in the tokyo session the most in three months. we reported earlier the insurer is facing a good than expected exposure to the greensill
8:21 pm
capital not on after finding some policies are not covered by contracts with a key group of reinsurers and we will continue to watch those as trading continues. earlier at the credit suisse asian investment conference (aic) we also heard from a speaker talking with kathleen hays. >> we will have a very strong spring and summer, vaccines rolling out a strong rate, case going down in the virus. that is obviously where the starts. you have a lot of pent up demand from people like me who have been isolated for the last year, those people have excess savings in their pocket. the savings rate has been quite high the last year, and we have another $1.9 trillion of stimulus coming into the economy, so i think you will see demand very strong. as i talk to my contacts even this week as to meals checks hit, people, especially low to medium retailers, really saw surge in demand.
8:22 pm
so i think you will see that, in spades. the other thing. for fed referred to as, men -- philly fe d referred to, manufacturers will have to work hard to keep up and we are seeing supply chain pressure throughout the economy and backups on imports so i think you'll see strong demand and issues in meeting that demand. kathleen: that is feeling inflation forecasts and for some a concern for some an opportunity. the former treasury secretary larry summers was on bloomberg television friday, and he sent a warning about the economy overheating and boosting inflation. bond yields are surging and the fiscal stimulus is taking hold. the virus continues to recede. how do you respond, as a fed official, to that? >> as i said, we are going to see out externally strong year. i think that is going to lead to price pressure. some of that price pressure will
8:23 pm
be because we are rounding over deflationary comps from last year and is those lead the baseline you will see prices jump up. part of that is going to be supply-demand imbalance i was talking about earlier. part is, you're starting to see expectations creep up, not yet to hurdle, but getting closer. i think you will see price pressure this year and i want to emphasize, inflation is not an one-year phenomenon, it is a multiyear phenomenon. so, to have inflation over time, which i suspect is what he is talking about, you would have to see expectations really move. you would have to see businesses start to think that every year they need to see 3% or 4% or 5% price increases. that workers would start to see compensation increases. we certainly have not seen that yet. and as i'm talking to business in my district, i still hear them struggling, with the idea of taking price, given the disinflationary courses date
8:24 pm
still proceed -- perceive, whether technology and needing to price shop or global supply chains or global talent pools and the impact on labor. or the power of box retailers to negotiate. so i still do not hear that, but that is something i'm trying to stay on top of, and were that to change, our forward guidance and tools allow us to do what we need to. kathleen: i want to quote another fed person, former new york fed bank president bill dudley, i spoke to after the fed meeting wednesday. he said, he is not concerned about the rising bond yields we are seeing now but echo larry summers when he said, he is worried about what happens if the fed is too slow in tightening monetary policy, inflation starts rising and then the fed has to speed up rate hikes. he says that would not be pleasant for financial markets. larry summers says he sees a 30% chance this is what is going to happen and cause a recession, is
8:25 pm
that of concern? or at what point does it become one? >> there are a lot of scenarios out there. and our guidance suggests we would be raising rates were we to see inflation started spike past our targets. so, i think we have the tools to handle it, but i would agree with anyone who thinks this amount of fiscal stimulus at this point is new for us. so we have to set -- we have a set of forgot it's out there i believe allows us to tackle, should the -- we have a set of forward guidance i believe allows us to tackle should this come and we are still looking at 1.5% and larry is worried about the future but the present does not show it, but were it to show it we have the tools to handle it. shery: the richmond fed president speaking to bloomberg's kathleen hays. we are 25 minutes away from the open and south korea. this is bloomberg. ♪
8:28 pm
8:29 pm
it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile, you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network? sure thing! and with fast, nationwide 5g included - at no extra cost?
8:30 pm
we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction... ...and learn how much you can save at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. vonnie: this is daybreak: asia. south korea's defense minister says the country may strengthen its military ties with japan to counter regional threats like the one posed by north korea.
8:31 pm
he said boosting cooperation was necessary for security across the korean peninsula. >> there is a matter of history related issues but we feel korea and japan relations are needed in terms of defense cooperation. we believe that korea and japan security cooperation is a valuable asset which is why we made -- which is why we need to maintain this. vonnie: the turkish lira is plunging in response to erdogan's decision to oust the third central bank chief. he was appointed in november. the new governor pledged on sunday to deliver permanent price stability. the pboc says it still has room to add liquidity into the economy while keeping its leverage issue stable.
8:32 pm
he also said the financial policy framework would take climate change into affect. and it would put a cap on high carbon assets. china is really shoveling the pboc's monetary policy committee. as they turn their focus on curbing financial risks. they will replace two others on the committee. this is in standard practice. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn and this is bloomberg. haidi: the first face-to-face talks between china and the u.s. since president biden became
8:33 pm
president. we are joined by stephen engle in hong kong. we did not even get to the promise of the meeting between the leaders for earth day. where do we go after this airing of grievances? >> what is next? there is no roadmap for further talks and the way i look at it is the question is -- where do we go from here? that was the question going into the talks because the bar was set so low on expectations. it is now the question coming out of these two days of talks. including a high profile airing of grievances. in alaska. that is the question and i think both sides have gone back to their respective headquarters in beijing and washington to assess whether this was worth it. most analysts say it probably was because they have not met
8:34 pm
based to face like this in a long time and a lot of bad blood has built up as evidenced by the comments of anthony blinken as well as the foreign minister. the two gentlemen from china calling the comments from the u.s. condescending and hypocrisy involved in the comments about democracy. we have heard these comments in the media over and over since friday. let's first hear the assessment of the talks from the secretary of state of the united states. >> we were also able to have a very candid conversation over these many hours on end expansive agenda. on iran, on north korea, afghanistan, climate. our interests intersect. >> i think the key question right now -- are the differences between china and the united
8:35 pm
states entrenched? were those initial comments playing for a domestic audience? or is there common ground such as climate change where they can move forward? there is no scheduled second or third round of talks. it is just going back and assessing how much the ball was moved forward or backward during these two days in alaska. shery: the csi 300 plunged after the terrible start to the talk last week. what are you watching in china? >> investors have had a heap of bad news with the derisking campaign from the government and the tone of the comments sent the csi lower extending a 14% fall since february. there is already negative news in the chinese market and those comments -- any optimism
8:36 pm
displayed before the talks were a potential virtual summit between joe biden and the chinese president evaporated fairly quickly. a news agency put a fairly positive spin on this in its commentary and coverage including comments from the foreign minister saying these were constructive talks. one on saturday said the two sides would establish a joint working group on climate change which is substantial as well as talks on facilitating activities for diplomats and journalists. however, i might add that the commentary said the talks were timely, beneficial, candid, deep, and constructive. well. what did the united states side say coming out of that? nothing. they didn't say anything about any steps forward. no agreements were necessarily announced on the u.s. side. i think the u.s. site is going back to figure out whether this
8:37 pm
was worth it or not and where to go from here. shery: silence is worth a thousand words especially when there are conflicting views about what happened. we will have more analysis of ahead of the u.s.-china -- on the talks. deborah elms gives perspective on what is next for that relationship. fresh from the fallout on the -- of the greensill scandal, credit suisse is looking to expand business in asia where the bank currently generates 20% of its revenue. the ceo spoke exclusively to bloomberg from the sideline of its conference. >> it is extremely important. it is our flagship conference globally and we have been doing it for many years now. this year, it is all virtual but we started the 22nd of march -- we start the 22nd of march until
8:38 pm
the 26. we have 100 plus speakers. i'm really looking forward to it. the interest is very strong. >> where does asia fit in your whole business now? >> it is almost 20% of our franchise revenues globally which is significantly more than most of our global peers who are in the mid-teens or on average, 12%. credit suisse has been in asia and we have strong positions in singapore and hong kong. those are our two main hubs. and it is the highest growth in terms of existing growth but also going forward, growth potential. >> where are you going to get that growth? the obvious answer is china. how do you do that in china?
8:39 pm
we had a guest the other day saying that it is important that you get 1% -- 100% of your china joint venture. >> you are right that china is very important. we have, at the moment, more offshore business and not onshore private banking. in terms of investment banking, we just secured 51% in our securities joint venture and the plan is to go to 100%. it is seen as a fantastic growth opportunity for both of our businesses. >> when you look at that, is that going to be the key driver in china? >> the jv is mostly investment banking. what we want to have is all of
8:40 pm
the licenses needed for our banking plants be it traditional private banking or asset management or lending, corporate banking. it is a multiyear plan and we have a hiring plan as well. working closely together with a team we are ready have in hong kong and in other areas. it is a cross both businesses. the joint venture is primarily investment banking. we also have an asset management venture where we own 10% of a stake. that is also growing very nicely and we want to further strengthen that collaboration. >> tell us a little about other parts of the region and where you want to grow. >> singapore is doing extremely well in terms of the whole infrastructure and in terms of
8:41 pm
the situation as a hub for us. we are covering other markets in southeast asia like indonesia where we have a division which is in a very strong position. malaysia and thailand. there are opportunities in south korea. we see opportunities in vietnam. it is really a collection of markets where we see opportunities including more mature markets like australia and japan. outside switzerland, our focus is on growth markets. that is where we have been growing fastest. if you take the entire wealth management market opportunity globally and also in the region, this market is growing faster than the rest of the markets. it is traditionally in the high single digits if not double
8:42 pm
digits. haidi: credit suisse ceo speaking exclusively to bloomberg's rishaad salamat. bloomberg is the exclusive media partner there at the conference. we will have more from that event coming up next. we hear from betsey stevenson about the shape of the post-pandemic recovery and how covid has worsened inequality. this is bloomberg. ♪
8:44 pm
sophie: betsey stevenson is from the university of michigan and her work has focused on any quality how that has increased during the pandemic. she will be discussing how all boats can be lifted in a post-pandemic world. stimulus has been allotted globally to mitigate the impact of covid as well as to settle supply and demand shocks. do you see the u.s. gdp growth returning to pre-covid trends in light of this? betsey: i think the right action has been taken in order to get us back to that level of gdp. we also want to make sure that we are getting everyone back to work. heading back to that pre-covid
8:45 pm
level of employment. the kind of disruption that has been talked about at the credit suisse conference this week is all about the fact that we will get some gains coming out of the pandemic but we want to make sure they are more evenly shared and we are supporting workers at the bottom and not just workers at the top. what you are seeing, the united states in particular, the last stimulus bill really aimed at not just getting us out of the slump, out of the endemic recession back to where we were, but also redistributing in a way that we will come back with all sorts of boats lifted higher. this pandemic disproportionately hit the bottom of the economy globally. it has raised important questions about global inequality as well as inequality within countries.
8:46 pm
sophie: in the u.s., janet yellen aiming for near full employment by next year. what does that look like across the economy but especially for women? betsey: what we saw was this is our first ever service sector led recession which means it was a recession led by women getting hit the hardest. and then you pile on not just that they lost more jobs because they are more likely to work in the industries that were hit hardest by the pandemic but they also came home to find that their kids did not have school and their childcare was canceled. you have a sort of double damage that they have care responsibilities, more work to do at home, and losing their jobs and the sectoral reallocation in the industries in which they worked. the important thing to realize is that women came into this with more work experience and education than they have ever
8:47 pm
had before. we need to get these women back into the labor force in order to have a full recovery because it is where a lot of our human capital really is. that means not just getting women back into their old jobs but figuring out where else they can move do and how the economy can do a better job of balancing work along with family caregiving services. sophie: what policy gaps need to be addressed? women hit hard in particular. you have areas like hospitality and tourism, still under pressure. betsey: the first thing you have to realize is that the united states is the only country out there really that does not have any kind of paid leave planned. that was a bad situation to be in going into the pandemic. no access to paid sick leave or
8:48 pm
family leaf. not really good workplace flexibility. all of those things are really tough in the united states. the united states needs to catch up with the rest of the world but those kinds of policies. another thing is that we will see more movement into things like education and health services. those are jobs that women have already been holding. you go back to the 2008 recession, in the united states, most of the jobs lost were in the goods producing sector. in 2020, we had not made up that job loss but we added 15 million jobs in the service sector. that is where the job growth is going and that is where women are going. it will not be a problem getting these women back into the labor force but they will say we want more support, we want to make sure that we have a school system that works well, that we have a childcare system that works well and we have a right
8:49 pm
to take a paid sick leave day without losing our job. sophie: larry summers has not held back on his criticism with the fiscal response. saying the policy is the least responsible in the u.s. for 40 years. and not enough has been done in the wake of the global financial crisis. where does the balance of risk skew in your view? betsey: what we saw, for sure, is that we under reacted in 2008. larry knows that. the fed policy is very clearly responding to the fact that they know they under reacted in 2008. it took too long to recover from that and no one wants to make that mistake again. i think we need to risk going a little bigger this time in order to to make sure that we get all the way back. there is a question -- and the
8:50 pm
reason i think larry has said it is too big is because there is more stimulus funding than the size of the output gap. should stimulus funding equal the output gap or do you need to go bigger than that? give her the -- the of and that we have a lot of people afraid to spend and a lot of people saving and it is hard to target the families that need it, i think we need to go bigger. i think we will run hotter inflation then we have had but the fed has made it clear that it is ok to run in inflation above their 2% gold now as long as we keep the long-term inflation increment at 2%. what we are willing to risk right now is risking running a little bit hot in order to make sure that we don't leave anyone behind. sophie: turning savings into spending, you have been a perp on a of turning temporary
8:51 pm
benefits in the stimulus package into more permanent measures? . what is the pathway to this? --what is the pathway to this? betsey: the stimulus bill includes what we need to support children and tax credit -- [indiscernible] sophie: thank you so much. shery: thank you so much for sharing your insights on what could be happening in a post-pandemic world when it comes to providing an even recovery. acta the studio. haidi: still to come, from the credit suisse conference, securities researcher discusses asean's challenges in the
8:52 pm
telecom space. before we get there, let's take a look at some of the stocks we are watching and japan. there was a fire in a clean room and the ceo saying that could cost one at 256 million dollars in revenue. it is taking a head to. it is saying it is investigating the potential impact of re nesas. they are already struggling to keep a lines operating. there is a blooming demand for laptops. and this plant could be sidelined for a month which is not great news for chipmakers and global automakers also. the botc -- the boj said they would focus on stock purchases. tokio marine shares also falling
8:54 pm
8:55 pm
astrazeneca vaccine. there are two sites in melbourne which has seen some of the worst outbreaks in the country. that approval comes as more than 1000 private medical clinics joined the vaccination program on monday. saudi aramco's dividend has survived a tumultuous year. it says it will make the world largest payout for 2020 despite a slump in earnings and revenue. net income for the year came in slightly better than expected. free cash flow fell almost 40%. aramco is expecting capex to be down from a previous guidance of $45 billion. a new price target for test lab. it is expected to hit $3000 by 2025 from its current price of $655. at that price, the company would
8:56 pm
be worth almost $3 trillion. there is a 50% chance of tesla achieving fully autonomous driving within five years which could allow the company to scale if the planned robo taxi develops quickly. haidi: take a look across the rest of the markets. sideways trading session. asian stocks mostly trading lower. the kospi off by about 0.3%. investors are worried about a bond yield as well as economic activity picking up globally. in australia, the performance is --. new zealand off by about zero by 5% as well. coming up, the talks in alaska showing tensions are still running high between the two biggest economies. we will discuss what came out of those meetings and what comes next with deborah elms.
8:57 pm
9:00 pm
tom: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets china open. i am tom mackenzie. david: good morning. counting down to the open of trade in the chinese mainland and here in hong kong. the top stories this monday morning, china stepping up moves to curb financial risks. two new policymakers will join the pboc as they prepared to dial back
196 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
Bloomberg TV Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on