pander. i think those concerns are overstated. >> sales are improving. >> the savings rate is likely to go down but i'm not sure it will go down to pre-pandemic levels. >> they are kind of fattening themselves up for the slaughter. >> inflation kicks up above 2%. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene is on vacation and lisa never met it -- never made it back from the ski resort. equity futures are unchanged for the s&p 500. it's about the fx market and the turkish lira with a monster move overnight. lisa: plunging about 14%.

very much about emerging markets and the idiosyncrasies and what is true more pervasive rates? in turkey, the leader runs the turkish bank. to see a 10% move this is a country that is built up credibility over the last few months. many believe the turkish leader had actually gone down a path he would stay down which is orthodox central banking. now it's terribly unorthodox all over again we are talking about the present running the central bank and the new governor, did he get to do what needs to be done? many people are doubtful which is why you see the massive move in the fx market. lisa: frankly, it's a huge reserve so -- reversal. the bank that was getting things under control and lead the lyrics one of the biggest gains

since november versus the dollar but there is a larger point and that is my question. it's about policy risk. how much are we depending on policy to be a certain way and how much does that risk disrupt everything weatherby the fed or federal government with respect to fiscal plans? i think this is a key risk right now for markets. jonathan: we saw the hike last week from turkey, brazil and russia. let's do a couple of things. we will run through the price action. we sit on top of this big story over the weekend. let's start with equity futures. the s&p 500 has a contagion more broadly. if you look at the s&p 500 futures, unchanged and the bond market is in risk aversion. within foreign-exchange and g10, the japanese yen is stronger. these are huge moves of concern.

the euro-dollar is going nowhere. the story for me is contained to turkey. the broader story forem hikes in, brazil, hikes in turkey, more to come from russia as well. em has struggled with this move higher in treasury yields over the past few months. lisa: the idea that turkey is the story today after the fed did not extend that exemption to capital relief for banks last week. there hasn't been a massive disruption in treasuries in addition to what we have seen despite $206 billion of treasury options we are expecting this week. 9:00 a.m., we will hear from the fed chair jay powell speaking at a bank of international settlement conference with a whole host of other top liners. also today, tony blinken, secretary of state is traveling to meet nato allies in european

leaders. i am curious to see how much discussion there is about vaccination, the rollout which affects everything, global trade and diplomacy as well as some of the unifying elements to combat china's sense in the global stage. at 10 a.m., u.s. home sales. the february data is so messy. we are in between payments from stimulus, in between a possible true reopening and here we are, what can we rely on as a compass for investor appetite and their ability to spend and home sales is probably a better indicator than probably anything else right now. jonathan: we had a seven year auction several weeks back and that was messy. we get $62 billion of seven year notes. there will be a massive focus on the bond market and the amount of supply we have to take out in the next couple of months and quarters. joining us this morning, the

chief investment officer for equities. disruption in turkey, disruption in emerging markets more broadly, did it do anything to change your outlook for this year? >> i put up a piece over the weekend. our view is now. no. once we get through this turbulence, we will adjust to higher trending rates on the s&p. we are sticking with their 4500 for this year. we think 5000 or maybe something like that for next year and we still like emerging markets. turkey is so bad it's almost good. it's been a mess for years. it is kind of set aside by most investors as a separate kind of undefinable asset class. it so relies on the politics over there. it's very hard to guess where

it's going. jonathan: you talk about the s&p 500 and then you talk about turkey. 5000 on the s&p next year? can you walk me through this call when we are looking at deceleration on gdp? >> that's why put out the piece. the general view on wall street is kind of bullish on this year but wait until next year. it will be all turned bad again and we just don't think that. if you look at the trend rate of gdp growth, and what we lost over the last few years, you would have to gross 7% per year this year and next year just to get back to trend by the end of next year or getting close to it. that doesn't count the 15% of gdp that's been thrown at this thing that mostly is still on the floor in terms of corporate's and individuals.

the numbers are so spectacular when you run them on the gdp, no one wants to say it because it just sounds too crazy. when you factor that through into earnings growth, s&p companies make money on nominal gdp. we are probably looking at nominal gdp growth this year in the high single digits and probably similar to that next year. that can get your earnings on the s&p well north of 200. we think a fair multiple we've been using for some time now is around 22 times on that number. you can get yourself up to 4500 or 1003 easily. lisa: that might sound crazy to people but a lot less crazy than saying that turkey is so bad it's almost good. are you saying you are long turkey right now? >> no we, are not long turkey, we don't do much in turkey even

in our emerging markets portfolio. we have microsized positions there will step turkey is not a large part of the emerging market index. it's driven by what's going on in asia and to an extent the recovery in latin america. turkey is a separate case the kind of runs by its own drummer and hasperiods of up and down. it's like a trip to las vegas. we were -- we would rather focus on where we can focus on the fundamentals rather than guess what they are doing? lisa: there is an idea there is a lot of cash on the floor, how do you determine when it will erect into a fire and how do you know when it will trickle into some of these less loved areas. how can you tell that the cyclicals are overvalued or if they have more room to run? >> july 4, break that down. that's the day when

simultaneously everyone comes out of their cocoon. we have never seen anything like this in the history of economic activity. you've got an artificial global shutdown in reverse by an artificial global restart. europe and america are behind us. july 4, the u.s. and the u.k., labor day in europe, maybe christmas emerging markets but you've got all this money sitting around, waiting to be spent when people come out of that cave. we think the numbers are kind of hard to calculate using traditional models. a lot of the economists on the street -- even the fed -- are using traditional models to forecast what happens with the labor rate. it's based on the fact that a normal recession takes years for

the labor to come back into the economy. this time around, we have an economy where the unemployment was focused. it's one of the most flexible economies in the history of economic activity. that activity will start up big time in the course of the summer and we think the problem will be finding gig workers. not getting them to come back. some of them have some goodie -- pretty good best that it will start to run out but that works nonetheless. you will see activity really pick up in that sector, just adding fuel to an already raging fire. we've got this $1.9 trillion thrown in on top of it. we didn't really think that was necessary other than the targeted amounts from folks that are really struggling. but here we go. jonathan: i don't know many people waiting until july 4. good to see you.

the federated earners chief executive officer. the people you speak to, family members who are just getting out and doing it already, they are not waiting for this. lisa: all you have to do is go outside and take a look at what it looked like over the weekend. the weather was better and everybody was packed into restaurants. the restaurants look full in new york city. do we get to july 4 or is it longer than that? you have miami beach shutting down and having a curfew because of the revelry going on. jonathan: europe is a different story. we are talking that extending lockdowns and the spat between the u.k. and that euro area with tension building and throw in astrazeneca. tom keene will be back with us last week. lisa is taking somewhat of a break from home. lisa: this is not a break. jonathan: what happens? lisa: we will discuss it in

detail at 9:15 a.m. jonathan: i look forward to that. in the bond market, yields are for basis points and the fx market is all about the turkish lira, weaker. dollar-lire down about 8.9%. for s&p futures, it's as if nothing happened. from new york city this morning, good morning on this monday morning. this is bloomberg ♪. >> a clinical trial could pave the way for the u.s. approving use of the astrazeneca novartis vaccine. it was 79% effective in the independence ring -- and the independent monitoring board said it was safe. the richmond fed presidents is the u.s. economy is set for a

strong 2021 that will lead to higher prices but he doesn't think that means it will affect inflation. inflation is a multiyear phenomenon, just -- not just a one year event. angela merkel is keeping lockdown restrictions in place for another four weeks. regional government leaders will discuss that option today. u.s. defense secretary lloyd austin me to surprise trip to afghanistan to decide whether to keep u.s. troops there and they say the violence level in afghanistan remains pretty high. there are more than 2500 u.s. soldiers to be withdrawn my may 1 -- by may 1. global news, 24 hours, 24 hours per day., this is bloomberg ♪

♪ ♪ >> hate and violence often hide in plain sight. it's often met with silence.

that's been throughout our history. it has to change. because our silence is complicity. we cannot be complicit. we have to speak out. we have to act. jonathan: president joe biden speaking on violence against asian americans here in the united states. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro and tom keene on vacation. he always gives me a hard time so in the equity market, the s&p 500 is up a couple of points. in the bond market, yields three or four basis points. yes, we are a little bit risk off. the real story is the turkish

lira. dollar-year at -- dollar-lire down by 8.9%. the turkish leader deciding to get rid of another central bank governor. the new governor will focus on price stability, no doubt. he believes in a policy not unlike what we have seen from the turkish leader with somewhat higher interest rates leading to higher inflation and lower interest rates lead to lower inflation. in this particular central bank, it's said he will focus on price stability. we have to understand what he think leads to price stability and for him it's different than what we see elsewhere. lisa: there was also the question of why president erdogan and the former governor was not doing the right thing because he had achieved more price stability for the lire on the global stage. you have a situation where what he was doing was working and

then he was ousted. what kind of message that? jonathan: if you hike 200 basis points, you might not last very long, that is the message. that is the market story so let's turn to the politics. as bring in emily wilkins. the presidents health going into the weekend, there was a stumble going up the steps from air force one. what have we heard? >> president biden took a brief stumble, three times within three or five seconds climbing up the stairs to air force one. the thing here is that president biden is 78 years old. that is very old for an american president and you look at the average over time, there were questions about president biden's health going into this administration. little things like this even though he recovered and continued walking up the steps, are bound to get a lot of discussion. the white house has said it's no

big deal and that he is fine. it's something that meant -- many people are walking or. jonathan: they have talked about president trump about the same thing. on policy, the headlines are from secretary blinken around foreign policy. we are we looking at this week --? >> there was a lot of interest in foreign policy particular after the u.s. meeting with china and alaska as well as other issues in the middle east. one of the things i'm keeping an eye on now is the southern border of the u.s. and mexico. we saw the homeland secretary going down there with a group of bipartisan senators on friday. we heard him make the talkshow rounds sunday with the message that the border is closed for families and for single adults.

they are saying they will not be turning away small children who come to the border but there is a big question on what to do. president biden ran on saying he would be more humane to immigrants coming to the border than former president trump. at the same time, you have seen a surge in individuals showing up at the border. there is a question about exactly what the biden administration needs to do. lisa: there is a question about how the political environment will receive what president biden is doing on the southern border. let's sit on china for a second because we have been hearing a lot of messaging from the meetings between the u.s. and the chinese delegations last week. the chinese delegation says in public that the u.s. delegates were very hard on china and in private, they were much more conciliatory. can you talk about how that's being interpreted by people in the united states? >> there is a fine line for the

biden administration to walk on when it comes to china. in some sense, during the campaign, you saw that former president trump was campaigning on the fact that he was tough on china and then you also saw president biden come out and say he was tough on china as well. there is definitely a sense there needs to be the perception of being tough on china at this point. you see a lot of bipartisan support for that and congress from democrats and republicans who supported legislation that includes sanctions, denying visas and other types of things. you also know that china is a huge economic giant. the u.s. needs to work with china on a number of things including trade, including climate change and so there is this balance between being tough but also being able to still have that relationship and work with them. lisa: i want to harp on this higher tax issue.

we have been hearing more from president biden's administration, the idea that hiking taxes for earning families more than $400,000 per year. what is the timeline on getting those tax hikes put into place? >> i would tie the timeline on the tax hikes closely to the timeline on the larger infrastructure package we are beginning to hear about. that's the next big legislative item that the biden administration has their eye on and it's something congress is beginning to work on. whatever they decide what taxes, part of that will go towards paying for the larger infrastructure package. look for those two things to move in tandem over the next couple of months. jonathan: they used a $110,000 number. are we trying to help the people most disadvantaged in this country or those below the poverty >> line? >>messaging has been taxing the rich, taxing the 1% step they

correctly point out that $110,000 is the number. those are individuals who might be impacted by rising of the corporate tax rate which is what we have heard from the biden administration,, rising to 28% from 21% so that could have an impact on middle-class families. the biden administration is trying to sell this as something that would mostly impact those in higher tax brackets. jonathan: thank you. we are trying out some big numbers and redefining what middle-class is in america and what is sufficient to raise a family on in america. it's an important conversation in d.c. lisa: $110,000 per year benchmark, people making that are middle-class? they possibly deserve extra a of people -- instead of people making about $400,000. jonathan: it's a debate.

coming up, the fx a check -- investment chief. good morning this morning. s&p futures are unchanged, live from new york, good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. . ♪

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." sunday evening when the fx market opened up, the dollar-lee removed with -- which was massive. it's down about 8.9% at the moment. how do you win back credibility with this market. the new central bank governor in turkey is talking stability. what is the spillover? right now, not much. we go to treasuries, 1.67 on the

treasuries and the yield is about 4%. we will hear from the chairman, jay powell a little later this morning at 9:00 a.m. eastern. is he happy with what he sees? every time we hear from him, he says the same thing. we will touch on this through the week, huge amount of supply on thursday to get the seven year note. hopefully we will get a repeat of that but no idea if we get a repeat of the result. not much of a story in the equity market. nasdaq futures are up about 8/10 of 1%. lisa: you have to wonder what the fundamental story is with treasury yields.

does this indicate that of treasury yields rise much more, that even more of the froth in markets will be knocked out of the market? that's one of the biggest questions for equity investors this year. jonathan: you have to carry on talking. lisa: let's take a look at what's going on in turkey. this is a situation where he didn't like the 200 basis point rate hike. can we get a sense of how much of a surprise this was from president erdogan's perspective? >> it's a huge surprise when you consider that back in november when they made the previous change of the top of the central bank, we entered a time in which the turkish authorities clearly

sent the message to the markets that we were entering a period -- orthodoxy. there has been some stability to the lira. we saw the lira coming back into favor at the beginning of this year and last year and then as we so the increase in u.s. treasury yields, the lyric came under a bit of pressure so maybe there is a message for the rest of the em universe. turkey got hit in the lira sold off and the response was to raise by 200 basis points thursday. they are advocates of lower

rates by erdogan. he brought in the new guy. lisa: you make an important point. you said that a lot of emerging markets have been hit by the strengthening dollar, the idea that in order to lure money into their economies, they have to raise rates and go counter to some of the measures that the big central banks and developed markets are doing. how much do you expect similar moves like that in other developing nations given the political pushback we are seeing an extreme form for? >> -- for president early gone? -- president early gone erdogan? >> we saw the rates for emerging markets coming to an end. we so what happened in brazil where there was a wave last week and we saw that in russia, and increase.

we are through that phase and we will see more of it going forward. it's not a unicorn move that we see from stories of maximum increases and turkey was one of those. turkey is a very specific, unusual case. it's not necessarily indicative of the way everyone else is going. it's a vulnerable story but there is a lesson there for sure. jonathan: finishing up on turkey, what we've seen in the past is the turkish leader say things about what he leads -- what he things leads to higher inflation and then he has been overwhelmed and the bank governor did what he needed to do. the governor has to respond to market conditions. is this a massive shift in the thinking of the central bank and what they believe leads to

higher inflation and leads to lower inflation? >> i don't that thinking has changed at all. it's more of a flip lop in terms of the approach to controlling the lira and getting a hold on inflation. erdogan probably lost his patience with the former governor. what will likely happen is that the new governor will cut rates at some stage in the not-too-distant future and we will see the lira continue to weaken in that environment. as our economist put it yesterday, he said you either lose your job at the central bank or you lose the lira and i think that's where we are headed. jonathan: we will continue this conversation later. this is an important moment for turkey and those of you not familiar with the thinking of the turkish leader and the new central bank governor, the story

has been for a while that the turkish leader believes higher interest rates lead to higher inflation and that lower interest rates lead to lower inflation and now, he might have a central bank governor that believes in the same thing and what that could mean for this government could be fascinating. lisa: frankly, it underscores that if you will it come it doesn't make something actually happened. jonathan: the lira is seven dollars 90 cents, a monster move. over the last month, the chairman of the federal reserve has commented on this, or using changes in the global stage? >> there is the idea that the dollar, that interest rates -- interest rates are starting to

rise in the u.s. more than it is in the rest of the world. that is something i think we will continue to give attention. the stronger dollar inherently slows down the u.s. economy and it's a question if the fed can deal with this. all that is pushing up rates and at the same time, when does it start to circle back and hinder u.s. economic growth? jonathan: no one is talking about slower growth in america right now. i think the federal reserve charted 6.5% this year. what are your expectations this year? what about the deceleration from 2020-2021? >> i think we are looking at 6% or more this year. for next year, back down to 2.8%. the bigger bump we get in

services as part of the economy catching up and getting the labor market back to full employment, all of that will cause a really strong work profile this year. jan that, the government needs to find a way to test to pay for all of the spending. the pendulum could swing the other way and that could bring growth crashing back to trend. i don't think we would go negative but growth that 2% would still be strong for the economy. lisa: there is a question about the tax hikes we have heard about from the biden administration. they talking about an additional round of stimulus for infrastructure spending. i much our current estimates of economic growth factoring in to those aspects? >> right now, there were so much

euphoria and optimism, the economy has done so well through this epic downturn that when you start to talk about structurally low growth or demographics or any of the boring stuff we were all talking about during covid and you layer on the fact that the pendulum could very well swing back from being so fiscally accommodative, anything like that, i think -- i don't hear a lot of people talking about it but i think it would be a mistake to assume that the u.s. is now china and can sustain growth at these astronomic levels. jonathan: a good final point, thank you. we talked a lot last week about areas for competitive response from either country but an area of collaboration like climate.

the envoys are going to meet with john kerry joining a high level conference tuesday as the delegation from the united states and china will start to meet. this is our conversation last week, is this the area for collaboration? can they have a conversation in a mate -- and away way maybe we didn't last week? lisa: i am struggling with messaging. i'm struggling with how things are being cast by either side to parse out the noise from the signal. is china trying to hook onto a key talking point for the biden administration or get political clout or is this something real? i doubt -- i don't have a good handle of that. jonathan: john will join a high level talk with china on tuesday. -- john kerry will join a high level talk with china on tuesday. we will catch up with that in the next hour and we need to

talk about vaccinations in this country, the numbers have been brilliant step more still to come on that we catch up with dr. jennifer knud equity futures are stablee in the s&p 500 is up a couple osen. points. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: the european union is on the verge ritika: of holding coronavirus exports to the u.k. there is a sharp downturn to try to turn around its lackluster vaccination campaign. the eu will likely reject astrazeneca into the u.k. until the drugmaker fulfills its obligation to the eu. in miami beach, they are extending an emergency curfew. the move came a day after police were overwhelmed by crowds and

made many of arrests saturday night. people in the south burst -- on the south beach ignored social distancing. goldman sachs says u.s. stocks are taking president biden's tax plans in stride. strategists say the stocks are pointing to good news in the infrastructure and showing little concern about tax hikes. president biden says he will visit the u.s. border with mexico where the number of migrants seeking entry has risen sharply. the influx of border crossings have become a political liability for the biden administration. the present has reversed many of donald trump's immigration policies. saudi aramco has managed to survive despite one of the biggest disruptions to the oil market. they will make the largest payout with the dividend going to the saudi government.

global news, 24 hours per day on air and on bloombergquint can take, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we need the approval process

of the astrazeneca vaccine to take place in the u.s. to stop the spread another countries. we will loan a portion of our astrazeneca vaccine to mexico. this action will allow our neighbors to prepare for vaccination in their countries. jonathan: the white house covid response coordinator this morning. good morning, tom keene is taking the rest of the week off. the price action on the s&p 500, futures up a couple of points. bond market yields are three or four basis points. that means the nasdaq is doing nicely. it's up by three quarters of 1%. in the fx market, euro-dollar $1.19. dollar-lire, what a move when the fx market opened up. a move of 10.5% against the turkish lira in the dollar favor.

dollar-lire $7.97. we will touch on the vaccine nationalism. the astrazeneca vaccine in europe, a surprise between the united kingdom and the european union. we also got astrazeneca facing retrial dates in the you not just in the united states with it showing 79% efficacy. let's have that conversation with dr. jennifer knu the phase three trials in the united states for the astrazeneca vaccine, what isdsen. >> that it's 100% effective against a severe disease. the 79% over all affective

efficacy against clinical disease is great news. people will naturally compare that to my and pfizer which is not fair because it's apples to oranges. different trials were conducted. overall, i think these are good numbers and it will be helpful to have another vaccine available. jonathan: as many people have said, the focus is on the deaths more than the cases. can you walk us through that? >> all of the vaccines we have available now and with the potential addition of astrazeneca, they are almost all perfect at preventing severe disease. this is great news. that's what we care about the numbers -- the most. to take that off the table is extraordinary. lisa: given the fact that we need a global effort for inoculations in order to recover fully economically and

nationally, what do you make of this move that the european union does not want to export after the event of -- astrazeneca vaccines to the u.k. until everyone has enough product on the continent? >> if you studied this issues for 20 years, is not surprising when you're in a global pandemic. countries resort to nationalism and that's what goes like here. countries will try to take control of factories within their borders to make sure they have them and that's what it means to be about. it's not ironic, it sort of sad, given that many countries in europe paused astrazeneca out of safety concerns. it's not a bad idea if you are truly concerned but there has been debilitating levels of infection a many of these countries. we are stopping and starting the game unfortunately when we need to keep rolling out.

i think we will see more of these sorts of approaches as companies are struggling with how many doses they have versus how many lisa: lisa: others have. there still is a high level of infections. i believe the global debts rose for the first time since november in the past week from covid and you see what's going on in my -- in miami beach. how close are we to the risk of a third wave? it's based on the fact that people think we are done with this and they want to get out. they are not waiting in july 4. globally, this is still >> very much an event in progress and i don't think wew should chapter on any country. rite the end we could see a greater resurgence. i am hopeful that because we have been so aggressive in the united states of the rollout of vaccines that it's likely we will see a rise in cases but it may not get to the point it was,

i don't think it will, that we saw over the holidays. i think the key for all countries is whatever vaccine you have, use it without hesitation. vaccine without speed limits is essential. jonathan: i want to understand your thinking. the risk around opening up international travel, the particular when the u.k. and the united states are doing so well with the vaccine and many others are not, what are the risks as we get deeper into summer? >> it is a risky proposition. there is an idea of having vaccine passports and only allow those people to travel. in my view, that's a tough proposal given what areas have access to vaccines. it's something i hope the global community can negotiate some agreements on rather than continue to pursue this every

country for itself approach. jonathan: is it more an ethical question than a scientific weston at this point? >> i do, the vaccine is the path to normalcy and normalcy will not be completely normal until all countries are protected so sharing the vaccine and making sure all countries have access to vaccines is essential for us to restore our lack of concern about the virus but our economies. jonathan: thank you for your ongoing contribution to this program. these are the conversations we've been having domestically as well, the risk of creating a two-tier level on the international stage and there are similar ethical concerns for the medical community as well. lisa: it's a two-tiered society but you can err too much on the side of disturbing equitably. when do you open up the vaccinations to everybody so

they can get online and when do you way to make sure everybody on the front lines or should -- or who should be getting it, get it. we expect to hear more about that. jonathan: 6.49 million doses per day is the latest data, 142 million doses. really fantastic numbers in american we hope those numbers state that elevated. from new york city this morning, good morning to you alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro, tom is taking a long break on a beach somewhere. i can't tell you where he is but i know where he is. i respect his privacy unlike his disrespect for my own. lisa: you mean in terms of capri? tom keene leaves and the lire is the first thing to move. he talks about it when it's not moving and this must be killing

him. jonathan: he is tuned in right now. from new york city this morning, good morning. coming up the asset management ceo on this market and the turmoil in e overm the last couple of weeks, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> 2013 all over again, i think those concerns oliver's -- concerns are overstated. >> the savings rate is likely to come down. i am not sure it goes all the way back to prepend him at levels. >> runaway inflation is not going to come to fruition. >> if inflation picks up above 2%, the chairman is going to get a little uncomfortable. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: brace yourself for a ton of fed speak. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us next week. the fed speak this week is overwhelming. chairman powell today and tomorrow. a lot more still to come.