♪ >> 2013 all over again, i think those concerns oliver's -- concerns are overstated. >> the savings rate is likely to come down. i am not sure it goes all the way back to prepend him at levels. >> runaway inflation is not going to come to fruition. >> if inflation picks up above 2%, the chairman is going to get a little uncomfortable. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: brace yourself for a ton of fed speak. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us next week. the fed speak this week is overwhelming. chairman powell today and tomorrow. a lot more still to come.

lisa: what are they going to communicate? they kind of hit a homerun last week. if you take a look today, all is calm on the ball in front -- on the bond front despite the fact the fed is taking a new stance on inflation. they are letting it run hot no matter what. jonathan: we know what emerging markets would like to hear. i'll earlier i with a move of about 10% -- dollar lira with a move now other about 10%. how often have we seen this move, the car crash in turkey, and then people buy back in every single time? lisa: it is a casino. federated hermes is saying this is perhaps so bad it is good, given the fact that there is so much money lying around in deposit accounts. a lot of people are saying, why not gamble on that if you are ga -- if you're are going to

gamble on gamestop? jonathan: there's a defensive tone to this market. you see it in the nasdaq. nasdaq 100 futures up 0.7%. you see it in the bond market. you also see it in for an exchange. in g10, the outperformer through much of this morning has come from the swissie and the japanese yen. euro-dollar $1.1912. it's this ongoing spat between the eu, the u.k., with astrazeneca very much in the middle of it all. lisa: the u.k. definitely looking much better than the eu when it comes to vaccine distribution. fed speak kicks off today. and :00 a.m. -- at 9:00 a.m., we have chair powell speaking at the innovation summit. i want to hear what he has to say about bain capital relief. why were they suddenly rolling back there exemptions that allowed to hold more treasuries, not without any additional cap on their balance sheet?

it seems to go counter to their desire to keep real easy monetary conditions while in lau i -- while allowing inflation to run hot. today, secretary of state antony blinken is expected to meet with more leaders. expect them to talk about the rollout and collaboration tackling the china summation. at 10:00 a.m., the u.s. february existing home sales coming out. i am very curious to see how much strength there is given the fact market trades have been -- that mortgage rates have been increasing, as well as easing restrictions due to covid. jonathan: i know we will be focused on the supply story coming out of the treasury this week. no doubt we will have full

coverage here on bloomberg. on that particular supply, given what happened last time around. going us now is michael shaoul, market field asset management cio. we should have understood that as soon as the central bank governor hikes is 200 basis points, his time was gone. it was over over the weekend. as you approach emerging markets, what are the dominant concerns outside of the idiosyncrasies of turkey at the moment? michael: i think the big question is are the commodity producers actually benefiting from the commodity cycle. we know there's been an upsurge in commodity pricing. we know that volumes have been very strong not just in china, but elsewhere. and yet, the two currencies we would look at would be the russian ruble and the brazilian rail. they are much closer to the pandemic then there prepend him at levels. in both cases, you can see reason for it.

-- closer to the pandemic lows than they are to prepend pandemic levels. in both cases, you can see reason for it. you never see iron ore prices where they are, and even crude oil where it is. you have a central bank which looks like turkey did last week, the bank of brazil did hike by 75 basis points. it did indicate the willingness to hike by another 75 basis points. unlike turkey, it is still a genuine democracy with respect to the independence of the central bank from the government. you have a president to has no confidence of the independent central bank, but i country like brazil, but if i can weather the

spillover effect from turkey, that looks like a country, a currency that looks cheap if the commodity cycle continues down its path. jonathan: let's start with this. we've got the political issues in russia right now in relations between the united states that have hit the ruble. brazil really struggling with the pandemic. in turkey we have central independence issues. is there a common thread between all of the stories right now? if so, what is it? michael: it is three different stories. i think em has political attached to it. even putin was considered to be competent and not a problem outside of his borders 15 years ago. so this clean, easy way to make money in emerging markets isn't

fair. on the other hand, some of it looks quite cheap given that i think we are in the early to mid stages of a significant commodity cycle. the other side of emerging markets is starting to look quite expensive. the technology portion of em looks as expensive as the u.s. portion is. so ironically, the overall emerging market index continues to look ok because it is dominated by technology, but perhaps the kind of rotation that we have really seen in the developed world, it isn't necessarily good for the overall emerging market index. but some of the laggards in em you have the potential to catch up. lisa: i want to hone in on the idea that you are doing this across the board in your per folio. -- in your portfolio.

are you expecting big declines in tech stocks, or just that we see the run-up in the gains have already been got? michael: overall, is a fairly benign environment, but i do think of -- i do see periods of weakness. on the other hand, the advances we have seen particularly since december, we have seen it encyclical starts that really does fine. perhaps it is more a -- more a matter of not being long then actively betting. it is the indexes which don't have a lot of technology in them which are starting to outperform. lisa: does it make sense to you that tech is so closely tied to interest rates right now? michael: i don't think it is

necessarily big tech. what it really is is the speculative portion of technology grew tremendously in market cap between the beginning of covid and the end of last year. so it is not really a big tech story. it is a speculative tech story. it is the super high multiples you see in a sector like anything to do with electric vehicles. it's not necessarily the fa ang's which are a problem. it is the stuff that came from nowhere and in aggregate, and up with hundreds of millions in market cap. jonathan: do you believe there is some causation there, that we are reopening, growth looks

better, and there's no need to be in these names anymore? in coordination with that, yields are higher too. michael: i think it is a little bit of both. once we associate higher interest rates with lower multiples, it becomes a reinforcing process. then you start to see active betting of yields being attached to high multiples. once one of these macro ideas takes place, it is hard to shake out of the market until you create extreme valuation. jonathan: michael, always great to catch up with you. lisa, you touched on the issue. this correlation or causation, is it high yields in line with no elastic -- is it high yields in line with lower mastech price -- lower nasdaq prices? lisa: or is this an idea of stocks generally being overvalued because of how low benchmark interest rates are?

one thing i have been struck by is the dow. i really wanted to bring it up because tom and i have been messaging back and forth about how i can weave it into the conversation. but industrials have done so well. you can hear it out the window if you hear that extra noise. but i am curious how far that has to go, at what point the brick-and-mortar aspect of life gains after being left for a year. jonathan: it is the weightings of the dow that i have a problem with. [laughter] lisa: ok. jonathan: we talked about this a million times. tell tom thank you very much, and i miss him dearly. i really do. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. some calm on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq 100, up eight.

chairman powell speaking today at 9:00 eastern, again tomorrow, and again on wednesday. it will be interesting to see him with secretary yellen in washington, d.c.. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: a clinical trial could pave the way for the u.s. to approve the use of the astrazeneca coronavirus vaccine. the trial found the shock was 79% effective in preventing the disease, plus an identical -- plus, an advisory board has not identified any side effects. coronavirus cases have risen above a level that may prompt government action to avoid health care overload.

local and regional government officials will discuss options today. u.s. trade secretary made a surprise trip to afghanistan. president biden is trying to decide whether to keep u.s. trips there. a peace deal reached last year called for the u.s. soldiers to be returned home by may 1, but that deadline would be tough to meet. china is describing the first face-to-face meeting with the biden adminstration as "beautiful." beijing called for more discussions after a tense start. the u.s. accused china of human rights violations, while china said the u.s. was running a soiled democracy. it is the biggest purchase of a u.s. asset by a canadian company since 2016. canadian pacific railway has agreed to buy kansas city

southern. the combined railroad six to create a 20,000 mile network linking the u.s., canada and mexico, and the first year of the new trade alliance. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome back to -- this is bloomberg.

pres. biden: when i came up with this $1.9 billion for the covid

and economic relief, we were told it could never pass. we would never get any help. well, we didn't get any help in the senate or the house, but we have 55% of republicans supporting it, 90 present -- supporting it, 95% of democrats supporting it. jonathan: good morning. tom keene is back with us next week. here's the price action this monday. equity futures up six or seven points. on the nasdaq, up 0.8%. in the bond market, yields lower by four basis points to 1.67%. we need to talk about the great effort on vaccines around the country and around the world. in the united states, 79% efficacy. here's the most important number i have seen, 100% efficacy

against severe or critical disease and hospitalization. joining us now is the executive vice president of astrazeneca's biofarma business unit in the united states. it is great to catch up with you. you are a company under siege for a vaccine the are not looking to profit that much from. what is your message to the rest of the world right now? guest: the message is relatively clear. thank you for having me on the show. it is clear we have a vaccine which is highly effective, showing an unprecedented high efficacy against the disease, and that is important for the united states, for europe, but let's not forget this virus is everywhere in the world. hopefully it is the next step for all of us in order to combat against this terrible pandemic in the world. jonathan: you mentioned europe. some doubts were raised around this in europe over the last

several months, specifically on the risks around blood plotting -- blood plotting. what have you learned -- blood clotting. what have you learned about that specific issue? ruud: the very good news that was also in our press release is that they did not see any imbalance regarding it in the groups, and that is based on very strong feedback we got saying that the vaccine is highly effective and safe for use. it doesn't mean that, as always, for every product, for every vaccine. we will clearly monitor every case we get, but based on the current data, the vaccine is highly effective. lisa: i think there has been a difficult time recovering after

december forget there is a study result out of the astrazeneca vaccine that was somewhat confusing. there were two different groups. one showed 95% efficacy rate, and the other showed 60% of the rate. how much do you think that colors people against the view of ever on the part of politicians who haven't come out and endorsed vaccine perhaps as much as you would've liked? ruud: i think that is always the case. the speed at which we are developing vaccines is unprecedented. we are learning, like we are doing for our other products as well. i think the importance of today is that this trial has been done in a phenomenal way. more than 40,000 artist vents in the u.s.

-- more than 40,000 -- in the u.s. our next priority is to get this vaccine approved for emergency use authorization in the united states, and we are going to apply for that in the first half of april. then of course, it is in the hands of the fda to make the final decision. lisa: do you have a sense of how widespread this rare blood clotting development has become in the european union? there have been a number of cases reported. do we have a handle on the scope of that? ruud: what we know is that it is very rare. of course, we are looking into it. at this stage, it is very clear that there's no clear relationship between the vaccine

and the events that are also there and people without a vaccination. having said that, safety is always the number one priority, so we take it very seriously. but let's not speculate. let's wait for the data, where we will do a lot of studies to get a better view on it, as well as the regulators in the world. and we need to see the data from the other vaccines, but it is far too early to speculate about how many times it is occurring in the normal population. jonathan: i don't want to get into speculation, so let's focus on reliable supply of this vaccine. the issue around what is happening right now in the other limbs, there's a plant there that still has not been approved to supply europe, yet the europeans are finding axioms that have been produced there.

we've heard from several eu officials over the weekend, many publications printing the same thing, that the brits are insisting that the plant in the netherlands must deliver the substance produced to them. what is produced in that plane has to go to the eu. we heard that from several publications. what is your interpretation of where supply from that particular plant can go and needs to go? ruud: first of all, the european supply chain is highly dependent on its large size. one is in the united states, and the other is in belgium, so this is a relatively small site. i don't want to do politics. that is not my job. my job is to provide the vaccine to as many europeans as soon as possible. the science is playing a role, of course, the top layer role for the european supply moving forward, but so far, it is clear that we haven't used the side in

the u.k. or in europe. this side was originally meant to supply critical raw material, so it hasn't been used yet for commercial supply. the ema still needs to approve this. so i think there is no need for that. jonathan: you've certainly been dragged into the politics over the last year. you and i need to talk again. thank you for catching up, sir. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up by around 1.02 on the nasdaq, up 0.1 put -- up 0.8%. the euro starting to advance now. euro-dollar up to $1.1916. getting the attention of everyone in the fx market is what has happened with the

dollar lira. the lira weaker against the dollar, up by 10%, and we are just down and ate handle. a hike from turkey, brazil, and may be more to come from russia. from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." it all starts here in the bond market. a bid into the long end. we are down by about five basis points on 30's. on tens right now, yields into 1.67%. it spills over to here. switch up the board to the equity market. is this a story of correlation or causation? yields are lower, the nasdaq is bid. maybe this is just a reinforcing narrative now. you can't fight back too much. yields come in and we push higher on the nasdaq 100 by 0.9%. for the bond market and this equity market, chairman powell, 9:00 a.m. eastern we will hear from him. we hear from him again tomorrow,

again wednesday. a kind of fed speak. the big event over the weekend, the turkish central bank governor is gone again. slip it, replay it. it might -- clip it, replay it. it might happen again in the future. can they buy that credibility? when the central bank governors starts talking about being committed to price stability, what really matters is how he thinks you can achieve price stability because this is a leader in turkey right now who believes higher interest rates lead to higher inflation, and lower interest rates lead to lower inflation. do they embrace that theory, or does this move push them to do something else? let's get you some movers and say hello to taylor riggs. taylor: you walked backwards. how do you do that? jonathan: try it. taylor: i'm in heels.

there's no way i can do that. [laughter] let's do our best romaine bostick impression. look to the downside. you are seeing some of the travel stocks we have been following. some of those cruise lines, concerned there could still be a lost summer. the u.s. still has a no sale zone. you do have some of those airline stocks falling despite some of the stronger astrazeneca vaccine news. that is certainly to the downside. let's flip up the board. there's a lot more action here. take a look at kansas city southern, getting a bid earlier as much as 25%, after a $25 billio deal from canada pacific. they have tried a few different mergers along the way. this could be the one that gets

done. can we talk about tesla at 3000? that is what kathy woods -- this is what cathie wood thinks. i have to say, a $3 trillion market cap at $3000 would be unbelievable. that is the called by 2025. finally, semiconductors added to the s&p 500 at the open. you get mixed results on the first day of trading whether aid is added to the index or not. this is going to be a stock we are watching that is close. jonathan: i love the idea that 1500 can be a bear case, but there we go. [laughter] lisa, i have learned a hard lesson over the last decade or so around some of these. i witnessed a clip a little bit recently of "60 minutes" from maybe 20 years ago, and the interviewer was a rees-mogg -- was very smug talking about

amazon and why it was absurd to even think about it taking over series. the lesson i take -- taking over sears. the lesson i take from that is when it comes to asking questions about these big issues, you got to be somewhat humble given what we have seen. lisa: i would argue, perhaps now more than ever because we are in this technological revolutionary cusp, and people say there will be all of these changes and new jobs will stem from these areas, or electricity that is more green, i do have to say you see a shift in markets toward growth, away from value on a more consistent basis. you do need the visionaries right now to generate growth. jonathan: that is the bear case. [laughter]

lisa: there's everything you need to know at this point, given how high it is gone. jonathan: let's talk about china foreign policy. a really important issue over the last week. it was stunning to see the two delegations face-off in alaska. you know how it was supposed to go. one party gets two minutes, one party gets two minutes, then out the door. that is not what happened. the united states kept the press in, snapped back, and things were not looking good after that. let's talk to a man who has seen this, robert hormats. how many times have you seen this in your career, and how original that moment and have still been in alaska this week -- alaska last week? robert: this is normally well set up. two minutes for 1, 2 minutes of the other, and then they get down to work.

i think this meeting was designed to do several things. they are a little different than in the past one. it is the first high-level meeting between china and the u.s. second, the audience was at least half domestic china wanted to demonstrate to its own people that it was taking tough positions on difficult issues. but the u.s. was also conveying a message that we weren't going back five or 10 years ago. this was going to be an american relationship with china that was much more assertive. and when china took more time than was anticipated, secretary blinken decided he was going to assert the desire of the united states to go back and identify some of the issues that china raised and talk about them while the press was still there, which was somewhat unusual. so it got off to an unusual start, but the fundamentals i

think were more or less predictable. the chinese want to assert themselves and the u.s. wanted to show that it was going to be a tougher u.s., and it was pushing china to take actions that the u.s. had not necessarily pushed hard for before the trump administration. obviously the tone was very different, but the strong line in many ways really was a continuation of much of what the trump administration was saying. we will see what it does. jonathan: if i can push you harder on that particular issue, the new approach so to speak, are we doing anything different to what we tried over the last several decades? if the ultimate goal of diplomacy is to adapt, do you seen any change on the horizon from this approach? ruud: i think it is -- robert: i

think it is going to be very difficult. the bottom line is that they believe that the east is rising and the west is declining. they come into this period with a high level of confidence in the way they have dealt with the pandemic. their economy is growing. they are playing a much stronger role in the economy. so they have a level of confidence, and the chinese want to predict at -- want to project that. president biden steam, which is a terrific ash president biden's team which is a terrific team, is now saying this is going to be the issue of the decade and

several decades in the future. we are going to be very persistent, say what's on our mind, and take actions. the question is, what are they going to do? this meeting was more about statements and positioning rather than specific sets of actions that the united states plans to take. the united states has been active in the south china sea. the president has taken tougher actions on technology. so i think we are going to see a ramping up of pressure by the united states on china in some areas. what they will be and how for the u.s. is going to go, the u.s. is still reviewing. lisa: that was a very polite way of saying this meeting was entirely for the press and for the sort of image, and not for any substance. there's a question about whether this push to collaborate when it comes to global warming or

whether this is also a statement for the press to try to appeal to the more left-leaning western media that back president biden. is that your sense of this? robert: that would be the one issue where i think there is a prospect of some level of convergence. that is because the environmental issue is a very important domestic -- domestic political issue as well. there's a lot of support among the chinese for more proactive policy on climate change and environmental issues, and it is a way of showing that they want to be part of a global cooperative effort. and of course, president biden, this is a big issue for him politically, for americans at

home, and certainly parts of the democratic party platform in the campaign. so i would say in this area, along with, down the road, cooperation on -- cooperation on trying to avoid future pandemics. there are places with a higher level of convergence then and many others, so i think this is good public relations, but i think there's also some substance behind it. jonathan: we are lucky to catch up with you, as always. robert hormats there. there's a man who served five presidents were administrations, with some important things to say about what we witnessed last week, and what was maybe not important, which was the part just for our consumption. lisa: there's a question also of

how hard president biden will really be on china, or whether those words were for the press. that is how china is trying to spin it. jonathan: on this economy, heather boucher will be joining us a little later this morning. equity futures up 10. bond yield is in four basis points to 1.6769%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the european union is on the verge of halting coronavirus vaccine exports to u.k. it has marked a sharp doubt turn -- a sharp downturn in vaccinations .

the move came a day after police were overwhelmed by late night crowds and made scores of arrests. saturday night, people in south beach ignored social distance and mask guidelines while celebrating spring break. police used pepper balls to try to get the crowd to break up. billionaire leon black is leaving the private equity firm he founded a few months ahead of schedule. lack is giving up his role as ceo and chairman at apollo global management. he says he is leaving for health reasons. another cofounder will become the ceo. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> you are going to see temporary price spikes. we will all want to go to the

same vacation spot or all do things that are going to require oil. it will take a while for supply to come back on and you will see price spikes. jonathan: steve chiavarone there . good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jon ferro. here's the price action for you this monday. on the s&p 500, we advanced 10 points, up 0.25%. on the nasdaq, up 0.9%. in the bond market, yields are in four basis points to 1.6787%. in the fx market, euro-dollar $1.1927, up about 0.2%. the main event has to be a 10% move in the turkish lira, just south of an eight handle right now. lisa: i just am so amazed that tom leaves, and it is the one currency he focuses on all the time when the world is raging

everywhere else. that is the one that is plummeting. you keep talking about president erdogan and how he keeps insisting that if you raise interest rates, that will lead to higher inflation, despite the fact that economic research does not bear that out. jonathan: you can hike interest rates by 200 basis points and sacked the central bank governor , and you will have higher inflation as well. maybe that's the story for turkey over the coming months. let's bring in damian sassower on this story. who would have thought, you hike 200 basis points, and here we are? dollar lira up 10%. what is your early take? damian: the lire is off at 6% over the last five years. this is not about rates. this is about the currency.

the former governor had gotten reserves up to about $50 billion, headed in the right direction, but they will have to lean on that buffer right now to protect the currency. they haven't had credibility in some time. just before this move, we were talking about don't mistake this for a fact. the central bank of turkey is still being pulled behind it. we are seeing spreads trending higher. the turkish five-year cdf spread is double that of south africa after today's move. lisa: how much liquidity is there in this asset class? damian: there isn't a lot of liquidity, but the reality is some 86% of outstanding lire

positions are versus the yen, see you are seeing the yen rally today because it is this carry trade that has been in play and is now being rolled off. but so, it is any guess as to where we are headed from here, but we are here again, have no same conversation for the fourth time in as many years. it is really impacting sentiment to the negative. lisa: let's talk about this contagion aspect, the fact that we may not have seen the worst of it. what are you looking for to determine whether this is going to cascade into something that is a much larger event than just a turkey specific story. we have seen just a taste of what brazil looks like. we've got mexico on thursday. i'm not saying the central bank

is going to hike, but we've got to visit the liens -- we've got the philippines, we've got thailand. five-year-30 year is still going. higher u.s. yields are negative for emerging markets. jonathan: that seems to be the thread telling all of this together -- the thread tying all of this together parity -- all of this together. who do you think has a better handle on this now? damian: mexico has a good handle, and they are definitely more linked to the united states economy and recovery, so that is one place you might want to hide out, but if you have rates now where they are and expected to come, and it is not going to be good for all of the

debts, they are all going to get hit off the back of this, and i'm sure we are seeing to base -- and i am sure we are going to see all of this. you are i or anybody in this building, no one is going to tell me where the dollar is headed next, and that is a real structural impact. it has been a structural bull market for the last 10 years. good luck to you. i think there is a better, smarter way to play emerging market currencies, but that is a conversation for another day. jonathan: we will hear from the chairman of the federal reserve three times over the next three days. for em right now, do you see anything coming together that could get on his radar? >> i don't.

he's not going to defend the long end of the curve. the fed is not the central banks of the world, but they are finally beginning to act that way. it will be very interesting in the eta environment -- in this beta environment. jonathan: thank, damian sassower our of bloomberg intelligence. lisa is not here to protect duration and the selloff we have seen. lisa: this is the question, the concern about contagion. what happens if you start to get some sort of trickling out into markets that will go back to the u.s. it could become jerome powell's problem. the key to me is that he's had a luxury of easing conditions in

the financial world globally at a time when they are trying to accelerate the recovery. if they see a tightening come of what does that do to their willingness to be a central bank world. jonathan: this is about growth differentials, and high yields are consistent with that outlook. the issue the rest of the world has come up parts of europe and parts of em, is that push higher in yields is inconsistent with the outlook and many of these regions. this is a problem that started with fiscal policy. so it really isn't chairman powell -- chairman powell's problem at this point. lisa: yes, unless they start to lag behind and the yield starts to rise. jonathan: yields in today four basis points, 1.68% on tens.

looking forward to catching up with bob michele on the outlook. yields are in four basis points to 1.68%. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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stops sugar cravings, and releases stubborn fat, all while controlling stress and emotional eating. at last, a diet pill that actually works. go to golo.com to get yours. >> concerned that this is 2013 all over again and we have the tantrum, i think those concerns are overstated. >> the numbers are so spectacular when you run them on the gdp growth side, no one wants to say it. >> it would be a mistake to assume that the u.s. is now china and consisting growth at these astronomic levels. >> bearish argument around runaway inflation is not going to come to fruition. they are kind of fattening themselves up for the slaughter. >> if inflation picks above 2%, the fed is going to get a little uncomfortable.