that money is coming. >> you have enough going on this year to push the economy. >> the numbers are so spectacular when you run them, no one wants to say it. >> the u.s. can -- sustain growth at these astronomical levels. >> it is gradual, and we have just seen that. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. tom keene is out of the building. equity futures down about half of 1%. the main event, it is chairman powell and secretary ellen. tom: how will they pay for a $3 trillion infrastructure plan?

i do think the way you open the show is so spot on. you have that fiscal impulse coming from the u.s. and a bifurcated response to the virus in europe. jonathan: look at euro-dollar. you have peaked optimism in the u.s. we have peaked pessimism in europe, lockdowns in germany through easter. the vaccine rollout has been absurd. we know the story around that. there is a huge pr problem around astrazeneca. euro-dollar has had a move of one third of 1%. i do wonder whether we are already there in and around 1 .19. lisa: how much can chair powell emphasize the slower rate for a long time policy in the face of

a $3 trillion spending plan? how will we explain the strength it gives the economy and the strength gives the dollar against the deficit? this is the needle that he has to thread today. jonathan: good morning. here is the price action this tuesday morning. futures in on the nasdaq 100. we are softer and lower there, even with this. the bond market, yields come down five or six basis points. some risk aversion into the bond market. 163.47. the euro-dollar 118.94. out there at the moment, this tuesday, there is some risk aversion that you see in the bond market and foreign exchange

you see it in commodities. lisa: the idea is exactly what you touched on, the nasdaq is down at the same time you have yields coming down, treasuries bid up. it is important, this idea that bad news is bad news, period, point blank. meanwhile, i am looking up at 10:00 a.m. data that we will be getting. february new home sales. yesterday was a huge disappointment in existing home sales. this stems from a lack of supply, not for lack of demand. we will get manufacturing data and get some read about how much things are ramping up despite some supply-chain constraints. particularly when it comes to semi conductors and ships. 12:00 -- and ships. -- and chips. chairman powell and secretary

ellen speaking in front of the house panel. there are not any fiscal hawks left, it seems, in washington. 1:00 p.m. treasury sales. not a lot of concern about disruptions on the front end, but very much, as we head toward that thursday sale, the seven year note, people will be looking at what comes in. as yields rise and with foreign-exchange the way it is, yields on the 10 year are the highest for japanese investors going back to 2015. there are reasons for buyers to come in. jonathan:, get to the three year chart of dashcam he get to the three-year chart of -- can we

get to that three-year chart of the two-year? that chart gets a heartbeat again and we start to see yields pick up on a two-year note. the fed has a bit of an issue. the fed is sitting on the front end of the curve and there is no challenge to that. but that is the challenger could see in the next several months. -- challenge you could see in the next several months. lisa: they have said, they are not going to raise rates for the foreseeable future. people start to price that in, the fed has a problem. jonathan: this is brutal language, let's move on. i want to talk about this rotation. using the bulk of the move behind us, why? >> we look back historically

back in 1996 and 1997 and 2012-2013, you had some of these rotations at well. they have to be violent on the front end. and then you get much more of a stock pickers market where growth and value are garp. i think we are into that. heavy lifting, making money from the rotation. money managers will have to turn their sites, especially the growth managers, as to which socks -- as to which stocks might have the ability to grow organically and approach those old highs once again. the growth tied lifts all boats -- tide lifts all boats. one of the catalysts for the rotation, one could claim -- one

never knows causality -- the increase in rates on the long and the u.s. seem to be a catalyst for people questioning valuation. your comments as you came on here that with the 10 year yield down, the nasdaq is not rallying. it certainly did yesterday. if you look over a 24-hour or 36-hour period, it still holds. markets might be positioning themselves for a little bit of uncertainty giving the testimony today. you are getting the risk of trade in the futures market and the selling off broadly. i would not read too much into it. it was nice to see growth holding its own and then some yesterday. we think the 10 year -- 175 is a good line in the sand.

a pullback in yields would commence. we will have to watch this altogether. the big rotation could be a microcosm of that as well. you are seeing stocks move more together than separately. lisa: the big rotation may be over. how do we price in all of the good news? we see the idea of lockdowns in germany. and we will get extra stimulus on the infrastructure spending. it will likely come with tax hikes for corporations that could hamper growth. have we priced into much optimism? >> last year, clients were confused by the strengths of the equity market. they are confused by the lack of upward move in equity take. the market is discounting a more difficult future. we have also looked at years

coming off the bottom of a bull market -- bull markets are front end loaded. they give half of their return in the first year of life. the second here tends to be modestly good. it comes with a lot of rotation, potential correction. it is a much more difficult environment to make money. buying dips is a good mantra to follow this year. that does mean that the dip is possible. markets are always trying to look 6, 9, 12 months out. they see a world of higher rates , perhaps higher inflation, higher deficits potentially, and although it is wonderful right now, markets are already looking through that and looking at some of the negative implications. lisa: with all due respect, people are calling you up

surprised that the equity market was not up more? if you take a look at the nasdaq, it was up more than 40%. what were they looking for? jeff: human beings tend to think in calendar years. when january 1 comes, you reset. when they see economic news, good economic news, it is how the brain functions. while all of us know the change in the counter means very little, human beings keep score that way. i keep having to remind them that a lot of those were pulled forward into 2020. they were pulled forward. the economy and stock market don't always go in unison. this seems to be a year in which main street beats wall street. last year was the opposite. it is telling investors, those

types of timing issues happen. it is consistent with history. jonathan: good to catch up, as always. jeff mortimer, managing director of investment strategy. many people missed april, may, june. and then we snapped back really quickly and the dominant narrative now is so different than to what it was nine months ago. a lot of people have been conditioned by the price action and that has shaped their view on the economy. it is in the data. when the economy restarts, it is better to think of it as a restart than a recovery. this time around, we snapped back with force potentially with a 1.9 trillion dollar plan that follows a $900 billion plan and discussions about a three trillion dollar plan on top of that. this outlook gets better in the

near term. lisa: the multiplier effect is the big question. how much will we see the gains expand on each other for years to come? jonathan: chairman powell and secretary yellen testifying on capitol hill a little later this morning. your bond market, 163.64. equity market, we are down by 15 points. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in boulder, colorado, a gunman opened fire at a crowded market and killed 10 people. one of the victims, the first police officer to arrive. one man has been arrested. the police have not named the man or discussed a possible motive. this is the seventh mass killing here in the u.s.

president biden is beginning to push for his next multi trillion dollars spending bill. this one is centered around infrastructure. he is betting it will do more than just boost the economy. it will ensure u.s. competitiveness against china for decades to come. they are concerned about the role variants are playing in states like michigan and new jersey. in germany, angela merkel and regional leaders agreed to put the country in lockdown over easter. they are trying to reverse a third wave of coronavirus infections. the plan is considered radical. microsoft is in talks to buy discord for more than $10 million. no deal is imminent.

one person familiar tells us discord is more likely to go public than to sell itself. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what is important here is that we recognize those at the

top have been able to maintain their incomes for the most part, their jobs, assets have been ok. they have been less certain. we need those folks in the bottom third, that have been hardest hit by the pandemic and are struggling. jonathan: that was the white house council of economic advisors. good morning. i am jonathan ferro. tom keene is back with us at the end of the week. who knows? we look like this on the s&p 500. we are down about half of 1%. up by 17 or 18 points. stocks are softer, even on the nasdaq. yields are about five basis points. this risk off move, if we can call it that, reflected in the fx market. the aussie weaker. you can see the spill over the commodity market.

some important levels on crude. a move is there for all to see. a bit of risk aversion. lisa: the narrative is less consistent and that is what you are picking up on, and rightly so. it is not all about yields or inflation expectation or about how much policy, how much money the federal government can pump into the economy. it is about something else. can we get the proof and the actual numbers? will this be a buy the rumor, sell the news kind of event? jonathan: i want to see some data. show me 2022, show me what gdp looks like. that will inform me of the deceleration and i can start thinking about deeply about what happens with yields in the growth story.

talking about the spending plans in d.c. $3 trillion is the number being bandied about. jack, 3 trillion dollars, that is the number, the conversation around infrastructure. can you walk me through the approach? >> we are getting some broad strokes now. the president is supposed to decide on a series of proposals by his advisors this week. the big number is 3 trillion. we have gotten some other details. 400 billion dollars in green energy funding. there is supposed to be a series of, the human capital stuff that a lot of progressive lawmakers wanted on childcare and that kind of thing. we are waiting on more details. the biggest unknown is isn't

going to be one big bill? -- is it going to be one big bill? two bills? do they partially pay for it? at this point, we know this week, biden is looking at those proposals. jonathan: how they market it to republican lawmakers will be fascinating. it looks like they are folding in industrial policy into infrastructure spending. once you mentioned the chinese communist party, republicans will listen to little bit more carefully. do you see these two issues being conflated a little bit in d.c.? >> this is going to be a very wide-ranging infrastructure bill. when you get to something that has a massive effect on the economy, yeah, that could be an issue. i think that may come up more as

lawmakers see the exact approach biden is taken. -- is taking. lisa: this idea that joe biden is trying to build this as something -- a way to compete with china. this is a chance for us to catch up. it is a competitive international effort. how much is president biden confusing the message when it starts becoming so multipronged? or do people feel like he is addressing all -- addressing everything all at once? >> you can piece together a number of things that has bipartisan support. competing with china has an appeal to republicans. washington's history, if you can piece together and omnibus of a bunch of different things that have bipartisan support, it may

not matter if you are using the message. do they have a bill that has bipartisan support? do they try to get this through in a partisan way using the budget reconciliation process? do they do both? the tax measures they will attach to this are a huge x factor. i do not think the concern in the white house is confusing the message. they are calling it an infrastructure package. it will go beyond what you think of when you think of infrastructure. lisa: we are hearing about higher taxes. are we hearing about existing -- cuts to existing programs? jack: the focus is on biden's proposal. the main pay for is what you heard from biden on taxes,

higher corporate rate, higher income top income rate. that will probably not cover the entire cost of a $3 trillion bill. there is a knowledge in washington that there may be others, but we have not heard specifics on cuts. jonathan: great to catch up. jack fitzpatrick in washington. important testimony with chair powell and secretary yellen -- very close to saying chair yellen. it is so recent that she left the federal reserve. to see those two together will be interesting. you will like this line -- raise a glass to jay and the fomc. lisa: i saw that and i was thinking, a lot of people agree with him but there are such

mixed feelings about the experiment we are embedded in. how will the fed extricate itself from these policies? especially because of this close partnership with janet yellen. the idea here, they are spending more and at the same time, they are trying to clamp down on yields or have a controlled rise. how will that balance makes? -- mix? jonathan: you are right to call it an experiment because that is exactly what it is. people have been calling for this experiment for years and what is amazing to me is that the people who called to do this five years ago, and that is some of the people complaining about it actually happening on the ground in practice down in washington. they have flipped from one side of the story to the other. lisa: we do not really know the results. when do we actually see whether

or picks up? whether this is actually going to work? jonathan: that is where the debate is right now. yields, six basis points. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

want your workout to be easier, more effective, and more convenient? then you should try aerotrainer by golo. the new full body workout that you can do at home or anywhere. it's great for planks, squats, core, and glutes. you'll strengthen and tone muscles, relieve back pain, and reduce stress. it's also great for yoga and pilates. get noticeable results in just ten minutes a day. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to workout. look at me. it works 100%. (host) all of this is a $300 value, but through this special offer, you can get the entire aerotrainer system for just four easy payments of $19.95. and if you order today, we'll also include free shipping. still not sure? then we're eliminating the risk. try the aerotrainer in your home for 60 days. if for any reason you don't want to keep it, we'll give you a super easy refund. we'll even cover the return shipping. this is a limited time offer, so go to aerotrainer.com to get the body you want with aerotrainer.

jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. live on bloomberg television and radio. it all starts here, into the bond market. it is the bond market which will be at the epicenter of a conversation down in washington today. a treasury set to do a lot more. yields are lower by five basis points. similar move on the 30-year. what is interesting about this morning is that does it set the tone for the equity markets? you know the game. i tell you where yields are, you tell me where the nasdaq is. not this morning. it is mild.

some risk aversion. a little bit of a defensive posture this tuesday. the aussie is one of the big weaknesses this morning. the commodity market underperforming as well. get to the euro, this one is fascinating. euro-dollar year-to-date, we have come back down to about 118 .50. everything is set up for the dollar to rip against the euro. yet we have not seen that happen in a massive weight. we had a subtle move. even with the fiscal stimulus package and the vaccine rollout. you have to take the data set and you have to.

even with peak optimism in the u.s., and peak pessimism in europe, this is what you have today. lisa: a lot of people think this is set to change dramatically. this idea that you should be seeing more of that fiscal impulse being priced into the dollar. right now, we want to focus on astrazeneca. the vaccine cannot catch a break when it comes to the pr effort. every day, it seems like there is a new doubt cast on this vaccine. the latest agency saying they saw old data in some of the research based on the efficacy of the astrazeneca vaccine. i do not understand what is happening. sam perhaps does. he joins us now. what is going on? how unusual is it to keep

getting questions about a major vaccine that has not borne out terrible results? sam: good morning. i think if this goes on at the pace it is, my head will explode. we have a situation that is really odd. we have a group headed by dr. fauci put a press release out saying the same thing that astrazeneca's press really said. and then we get dr. fauci on tv repeating the data. to be honest, we need resolution very soon. is it possible that they are saying the data is better than you have stated?

the companies confused, from what i understand. lisa: how much does this hamper the rollout? does it render the astrazeneca vaccine on the backseat for a while? sam: i think it is already on the backseat. the issues they have had to deal with in the european union. it should not really matter as long as we get the right data. don't forget, this data constantly evolves. whatever you found yesterday, there will likely be new cases today that change the numbers a little bit. i do not think it is going to really make a difference to the rollout. this vaccine has already been beaten up so much that what we do need is a solid trial with solid data. jonathan: this particular vaccine, as you know, for this particular vaccine, the developing world really needs

the astrazeneca vaccine. can you walk me through the rollout with these particular vaccines beyond europe? this spat between the eu and u.k., which has become absolutely ridiculous. sam: it is slow, as we all know, for all the vaccines. the issue we have to think about is that the doses for the rest of the world are not coming out of europe. there is a lot more manufacturing going on. that i am blessed -- i am less worried about. in continued -- any continued discussion about what is the efficacy of the vaccine, what is the safety, will keep people wondering whether they should have the jsb were not -- jab or

not. not everybody looks the data in the depth you and i do. jonathan: come back soon. huge issue on the pr front. the rest of the world desperately needs this vaccine. we have to go back to the spat between the u.k. and europe. france has a massive vaccine hesitancy problem. it goes back several decades. europe needs to address that quickly. most people have argued that over the last several months -- lisa: policymakers are torn between being as transparent as possible about every bit of information they get about the vaccine and the efficacy while also encouraging people to get the vaccine. you are seeing this play out differently according to the politics of each area and it could be harmful to the european

rollout. jonathan: the reopen in europe is going to be slower. the fiscal impulse of europe relative to the united states is to clearly not great. the chinese recovery has matured. that story is mature. crude is down. copper has been ripping all year. is it a recovery the drives a commodity rebound? or are we looking at a cycle that drives a super cycle in commodities more broadly? let's talk about that with our next guest. commodity super cycle. when that question comes up, what do you say back? >> it is a little bit too early to say. the last time the cycle wasn't

the mid to thousands -- was in the mid to thousands -- mid-2000's. you do not have that equivalent right now. you do not have the big demand push. in 2007, agricultural demand. agricultural products went through the roof. what we are talking about right now is slightly different. is that enough to warrant a

long-term bull run, something like seven years? i would argue no. jonathan: the argue i have heard is on the supply side. miners were not able to dig holes quick enough. there is a reluctance to add supply. do you think the discipline holds and does that contribute to a better cycle in commodities through this cycle? kona: you raise a good point on the supply side. there is this big scramble to get it out of the ground. that is fueling the fear over

the supply-side. but i'm concerned about is, you mentioned the european recovery is slow. that is already affecting crude oil. copper is also down. does the demand continue to grow post pandemic? it is all relative to demand. if demand is not going to be as strong -- look at oil. huge amount of spare capacity in the system. opec is having to cut back. lisa: there is a question, can we get a commodities super cycle where oil does not participate because it is being phased out a number of places?

kona: wow. i think oil is still around for a long time. i know with joe biden, there is a big push toward clean energy. you do need a pretty high oil price for that to become viable. i think you will see a situation where yes, i think that opec -- and even shale oil is a signal. there is enough capacity to get the markets back into balance eventually. there is a huge debate about whether we will have prolonged inflation or short-term price

pressure. we need inflation the level we had in the 1970's and 1980's. the kind of fiscal discipline, it is not just -- it is just not there. they have so much headroom because of interest rates. jonathan: we appreciate your time this morning. from new york city this morning, good morning. the focus on the nations capital , chair powell and secretary ellen. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> for the second time in less than a week, there has been a mass murder in the u.s. a man with a rifle opened fire in a supermarket in boulder, colorado, killing 10 people. one of them was the first police

officer to arrive. one suspect has been arrested. eight people were killed. secretary ellen and chair powell will get a sense of how concerned congress is about inflation. they will begin two days of congressional hearings today. president biden is ready to propose a more expensive bill to fix the infrastructure. biden administration is taking part in a climate summit cohosted by china today. if you days after the two countries squared off in their first face-to-face meeting since joe biden took office. china is responsible for 30% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. citigroup will begin having zoom free fridays. according to a memo from the ceo to employees, zoom will be bound on fridays, at least for internal meetings. she designated may 28 as a firm

wide holiday to be known as citi reset day. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> facing the current data, it is highly effective.

many regulators are confident the vaccine has been approved in more than 70 countries in the world. the next priority is to get this vaccine approved, emergency use authorization in the u.s. jonathan: some pushback today, some doubts from the u.s. agency saying astrazeneca may have given out dated vaccine data. that debate around that particular vaccine is going nowhere. this is a huge pr issue. from new york city this morning, good morning. tom keene will be back with us next week. we come in at about 16 point on the s&p. the nasdaq lower. yields are lower by six basis points. we have a real rally in the treasury market. last week, 175 handle was the

high for the year. yields all the way back in again. in foreign exchange, defensive mood, aussie weaker. the commodity market is down as well. lisa, a lot of people joining the dots on what is happening from the commodity market. to what has happened in europe where the lockdowns are said to be extended in germany for several extra weeks. lisa: can we get a global recovery where you get the incredible demand for precious metal and oil if you do not have one of the major areas of economic growth firing at all? they have been lagging behind. i am wondering if people are pricing in the ripple effect of that delay. jonathan: let's have that conversation about the pandemic. you and i would start a conversation by discussing the

latest data, cases, deaths, vaccine rollout. i want to talk about the things we need to address after this pandemic is behind us. one of those things in america is a delicate issue. what we have seen through this pandemic, informing us that people have gained weight. what do we need to address? >> i think this pandemic virus, because of his ability to prey on those with risk factors, had an easy time finding victims in the u.s. those three conditions were kindling for this virus to be able to find victims and land them in the hospitals and put our hospitals in crisis. that, coupled with the nursing homes, explained the trajectory. i do think we have to address these other public health concerns.

these are things that will be difficult because they are lifestyle diseases. people need to diet and exercise. people have been -- doctors have been telling people to do that for so long. this lays bare the problem that we have. even influenza seasons are exacerbated by these comorbidities. we have to think about how we make our country resilient to the pandemic. it is getting the population as fit, as healthy as possible so this virus or any other virus does not have so many easy victims around. jonathan: this has -- this has been on the public's radar for a long time. where have we fallen short? would you like to see a new effort at a federal level? >> it is hard to come up with a program that is going to be effective against the effects of lifestyle diseases because it is so multifactorial.

the government cannot tell people. what you want to do is maybe launch an education campaign about how this happens in the schools to get people to be more healthy about their choices. i do not know how much of this can be down from a top-down approach. it is very hard to do. it is not my expertise to know how to change behavior. it is going to take an all-out effort to address these problems , which have been chronic and long-standing in this country. lisa: there has been discussion about whether we are under emphasizing the side effects from the shutdowns and the prolonged bouts of isolation. 42% of americans reported gaining unwanted weight and the average weight gain was 29 pounds during the pandemic, to give a sense. people not having anywhere to go, drinking more, feeling like they are trying to fill their time with prolonged stress.

a very difficult period of time. it is understandable that people want to be done with us, which is why we are seeing crowds on miami beach, which is why we see restaurants packed in. do we really have a big risk of a third wave as people are just tired of the pandemic? at this point, whatever happens happens. >> the u.s. will have some uptick in cases. whether or not it looks like europe remains to be seen. we have a much more robust vaccination program. the goal is to get as many people vaccinated as possible, and we are doing that. i do think we are probably able to stay ahead of the worst consequences of people's lack of social distancing. we are seeing a decoupling of cases through hospitalizations and deaths. we have a lot of people living in nursing homes.

we will see cases go up but hospitalizations or debts remain the same -- or deaths remain the same or go down. it becomes a more manageable respiratory infection. we know people are going to be doing this. our solution is to keep vaccinating as quickly as possible. so those individuals are less likely to spread the virus. i do not think we will have the european trajectory based on vaccination numbers alone. lisa: do you think health officials have to nuance their message to say, we could see more spread, but it is less harmful because the most at risk individuals have been largely vaccinated? please try to be careful, but we are not going to crack as hard as in other areas. is that more of a legitimate message?

>> that meets people where they are. it covers the whole concept of harm reduction. that is what the vaccine is doing. we are going to not get to covid zero. those blips in cases will not land on a vulnerable person. that is why we have to keep the pedal to the metal we are vaccinating to make sure this does not happen. we have to be more nuanced. we cannot keep telling people that this is going to go on forever. jonathan: well put, good to see you again. 2.4 9 million doses per day on average over the last seven days. 127 million doses given, enough for 20% of the population.

19.4% of population coverage in the u.s. from new york city morning, i am jonathan ferro. equities down on the s&p by 4/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪

want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile, you can.

how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network? sure thing! and with fast, nationwide 5g included - at no extra cost? we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction... ...and learn how much you can save at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. (announcer) back pain hurts. you can spend thousands and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo. you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. (man) and you're stretching your lower back on there. there is no better feeling. (announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com.

♪ >> over 100 and checks -- 100 lien checks have gone out to the american people already -- 100 million checks have gone out to the american people already. >> the numbers are so spectacular on gdp growth when you run them, nobody wants to say it. >> the u.s. can sustain growth that these astronomic levels. >> i think this is the first step of the fed tightening monetary policy. it is gradual, and i think we have just seen that. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: powell and yellen testify. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio.