♪ >> over 100 and checks -- 100 lien checks have gone out to the american people already -- 100 million checks have gone out to the american people already. >> the numbers are so spectacular on gdp growth when you run them, nobody wants to say it. >> the u.s. can sustain growth that these astronomic levels. >> i think this is the first step of the fed tightening monetary policy. it is gradual, and i think we have just seen that. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: powell and yellen testify. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio.

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene off all week. lisa: the bearish feel is in bonds and stocks, and that is very interesting because it goes against what we have seen recently. higher nasdaq means lower yields. higher yields means lower nasdaq. we are assessing the potential for a third wave in europe. jonathan: the contrast between europe and the united states is phenomenal. we have been talking about it in markets for about three months. i am wondering whether we have fully priced that story just yet. euro-dollar has had a move down to one dollar 18 cents. have we reached the inflection point where we have both peak optimism in the united states a look of to peak pessimism in europe? lisa: there's also a question of whether people are fast forwarding too much. europe will recover. there will be enough vaccine. they will emerge from the

pandemic. at least you are in the trade. the idea is that people are fast forwarding to a time where the u.s. isn't recovering as quickly and europe is the one that is leading. if that is delayed by two months, three months, four months, it doesn't make that much of a different. jonathan: there's an infrastructure conversation in the united states which follows the $1.9 trillion relief plan. that is where the debate is a little later this afternoon. secretary yellen will say that if inflation surprises to the upside and runs away, we have the tools to control that. but when she says we, she really needs the general -- the chairman of the federal reserve. that is where i think it gets interesting, to follow the q&a as we dance between fiscal and monetary policy as we approach a major debate in this country right now about the amount of relief we've had in the risk to the downside of delivering even more. lisa: i want one question asked

to both of them. two janet yellen come away in is too much debt harmful -- two janet yellen, when is too much debt harmful? the fact that we have both chair powell and treasury secretary yellen, i am getting them confused. it is really hard. but this idea that janet yellen will have to be asked what is the appropriate rate of 10 year treasuries to make this borrowing spree worthwhile, and to chair powell, what are you going to do to suppress borrowing costs enough to make this worthwhile? these are very important questions. i don't think we are going to get responses. jonathan: the chairman powell of 2021 is very different from what we saw in 20 18. this tuesday morning, here's the set up. a little bit of risk aversion. equities are down 15 on the s&p. the nasdaq is softer, even with

this massive bid into the bond market. we have been so used two seeing yields go the other way. 1.63 percent on tens. in the fx market, euro weaker. euro-dollar down 0.4% to $1.1883. if we stick on this story, commodities underperforming. uti lower by almost 5% now, $58.60 -- wti lower by almost 5% now, $58 60 cents. there's the bid into the bond market, and i have to say, it's been obvious for a while now, that story around europe, the story around chinese growth maturing. there's the commodity move for you this morning on the screen. lisa: i am struggling with it, too, especially in light of the infrastructure spending plan out of the united states. you would think that would potentially offset some of the concerns about a delayed reopening in europe. meanwhile, here's what else i am

watching aside from that discussion with chair powell and janet yellen. at 10:00 a.m., we get u.s. february new home sales. this follows yesterday's data of existing home sales, that was actually weakened. the question of supply dynamic, the idea that there just weren't enough houses, they are too expensive, that has constrained volume. we will also get manufacturing data. 12:00 pm, jay powell, janet yellen testifying in front of the house. expect them to field a lot of questions about what they are expecting the deficit to become, when taxes are good, when they are potentially harmful to growth, and at what point borrowing costs become a true problem. that will directly bleed into financial conditions. i 1:00 p.m., the u.s. is planning to sell 10 year notes. we have seen a flatlining in the two-year.

the fed is very much in charge, not going to raise rates, as they say, in the near term. the question is, what is the appetite going to be like? who's going to come out for bond purchases at a time when the u.s. is auctioning $206 billion of debt this week alone? this is not where the problem is. it is really in the seven year option. jonathan: one to bring you some news quickly from gamestop. the chief customer officer will be leaving the company. frank hamlin to resign on march 31. what is astounding through all of this is how little we have heard from the company itself. we will hear from the company later because after the close, we get earnings from gamestop. it would be nice to actually talk about corporate strategy. to be clear, as you know, away from the speculation, there are people involved in this name for fundamental reasons, so it will be interesting to actually hear from this company about the strategy a little later this afternoon.

lisa: in all honesty, they are expected to report a positive cash flow for the first time in a while, but i really wonder how many people are truly buying shares at these prices for a fundamental story after being bid up to the dramatic extent they were. even if there were a fundamental story, how do you play and something being treated as a casino? jonathan: not for me to say. here's the price for you. not a big move considering what we have seen over the last couple of months. it has been a year since the market lows of march 23, 2020. to discuss the lessons of that year and whether those will be used this year, julian emanuel of btig. i just want to understand from

your perspective the lesson of 12 months ago, and how useful those lessons actually are if we apply them today and beyond. julian: the lesson is, as it has been literally for the last 25 years or so, you have to think long term as an investor. you have to really have your portfolio in your mindset in such a mode that you are not selling. you may not necessarily be buying, although that kind of discipline is likely something you should aspire to, but you really need to retain emotional control. we did not know what to close -- what was going to happen year ago, but now the nasdaq is up 100%, and the small caps russell 2000 is up and astounding 140%. if you let your emotions take over, you perhaps miss those gains. jonathan: emotional, emotions.

this isn't about economics. it is about emotional issues and therapy. i often joke with strategists that a lot of the time when they are talking to clients, they've got investors with them, and it comes down to therapy. you are trying to convince your customers to stay invested. using the challenge will be as great as it is always been to convince people to stay invested in the market over the long -- do you think the challenge will be as great as it always has been to convince people to stay invested in the market over the long-term? julian: some people didn't have time to react, so they stood pat. now the concern is, number one, we've come all this way. valuations are very high by literally every standard. as we look forward, the expectation is that some point, monetary policy, and perhaps eventually fiscal policy, may

not be as supportive as they have been. in the near term, they likely are, but there is the long-term to consider. lisa: in the balance of risk reward here. do you advise clients to be more cautious, or do say that there is a wall of money flooding into every aspect of markets? perhaps it will reseed at moments, but it will come roaring back as soon as you hear some iteration from a federal government saying they are going to pump another $1 trillion into the economy. where does the balance of risks lie, being too cautious or too optimistic? julian: in the near term, we think risks are very evenly balanced. on the one hand, you still have this speculative appetite. you were talking about the favorite meme stock a few months ago. the public is still engaged. volumes are still heavy. lows are still strong. but on the other hand, you have

come a long way, and clearly what we are seeing is that the value trade which is really led the way, and we think long term continues to lead the way, is coming under pressure because we are in one of these patches where the news on the virus is unfortunately a little bit on the soft side, particularly in europe. so what we are telling people is if you are happy with the way your portfolio looks, and you can imagine yourself to be a buyer down 10% to 15%, that is the mindset you want. you don't want to have to hedge to the downside now. if you are thinking about needing to do that, hedge it at the moment when options are cheap, with the vix is trading under 20. but long-term, we do believe there's more to go. jonathan: julian, always great to catch up with you. julian emanuel, btig equities derivatives strategist. i think one thing that has frustrated me personally is the sneering around the retail story over the last 12 months.

something that stuck with me is something on twitter. let me read this to you. i think it is spot on. there's been outrage over how poor people aren't making money in the stock market like rich people, and over how poor people are putting their stimulus checks in the stock market. where is the issue here, lisa? that people are engaging in the market? lisa: that's not the issue. the issue is concerned about not understanding it fully. i think that really is the ultimate question. how do you get your handle around these retail flows? jonathan: that is shaken with some snobbery, the. we will talk about it more later. from new york city this morning, good morning. futures are lower, bonds are bid, commodities or software -- commodities are softer. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in boulder, colorado, a gunman

opened fire at a crowded supermarket and killed 10 people. one of the victims, the first police officer to arrive. one man has been arrested. police have not named the man or discussed a possible motive. it is the seventh mass killing this year in the u.s. last year had the lowest number of attacks in more than a decade. officials are especially concerned about the role variants are playing in states such as michigan and new jersey. it could diminish the benefits of the widespread vaccination campaign. after last week's contentious meeting with the u.s., china is looking to improve relations with russia and north korea. according to the state run news agency, beijing says it is willing to work hand-in-hand with north korea to develop its relationship. meanwhile, russian foreign minister sergei lavrov visits beijing this week. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> i see a couple of tailwinds building, one of which could be

the government needing to find a way to pay for all of this spending. i think the pendulum could swing the other way that could bring growth crashing back to trend. jonathan: good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action as we count you down to testimony with chair powell and secretary yellen. yields in to 1.76%. yields lower on the s&p and marginally lower on the nasdaq. underperformance from the russell this morning. the aussie weaker off the back of what is happening in the commodity market. let's sit here for a moment. wti with a $59 handle. we had a break of that briefly. a source of mine out of london telling us to take a look out of a report out of china, my colleagues reporting out of china.

china considering a sale of about 500,000 tons of aluminum from state reserves. this according to a person with knowledge of the plan, and this all about really pulling that demand for the highly carbon intensive metal and hitting e missions targets. that is the story around here over in china, the omissions story and the bleed across from may be the metals market, because we have both aluminum -- forgive my pronunciation in london. i am doing it the american way. and commodities down more broadly. lisa: i am not sure how to pronounce it. i can't do it even. jonathan: carry on, lisa. lisa: i do think there is another question about china and how they are transforming their economy. it is a maturing economy away from some of the infrastructure push that led to more than 100 bridges and roads and all sorts of buildings being developed to something more sustainable that isn't driven as much by spending

or you do wonder how that affects the commodity complex on a growing basis, especially as you try to delever the economy. this really highlights the transformation underway. jonathan: let's talk to kevin cirilli down in washington, d.c., our chief washington correspondent, on the conversation around china and how it shapes u.s. policy. here's the line from the president and a pitch for his infrastructure proposal, just after he spoke with the chinese president. "if we don't get moving, they are going to eat our lunch. we just have to step up." is that what shapes the bipartisan infrastructure approach? i spoke to our colleague a little earlier about this come about whether it is america first that really drives some of this. kevin: yes and no. i think the biggest difference in terms of infrastructure is how to pay for it, but on the bedrock and the foundation as it relates to national security, there is widespread agreement across not only the agencies and various departments of u.s. government, but also most republicans and democrats.

yesterday, we should note that major headline that crossed that politico broke in terms of how the u.k., e.u., and united states are going to be issuing sanctions against chinese officials for their involvement in the human rights abuses against the uighur muslims in the xinjiang province. i mentioned the xinjiang province because whether you are talking about rare earth minerals, global supply chains, or a chip manufacturing shortage, that particular region has a dominant role to play in the geopolitics of the domestic manufacturing moment. jonathan: fold that into the equity relief story we have seen so much of over the last couple of months, particularly from this administration. are we going to see two separate bills or one monster bill? kevin: there has not been a decision about that, but what i can tell you is that the various committees are already trying to weigh the foundation for a piecemeal approach. whether that'll to matt lee gets

done, i don't know. if you are a republican, piecemeal approach would candidly look more approachable in order to tackle because you are talking about several trillion dollars, and the appetite for that and the window for that is quickly diminishing, especially if you are trying to pass that about a year out from midterm elections. lisa: is that the message? i was surprised we didn't see more of a boom in certain equities on the heels of a $3 trillion proposal for infrastructure spending from the biden adminstration. i am wondering if that is the message, that it is unlikely this will get done, that this is a wish list more than a plan that is possible. kevin: it is a total wish list. and look, i hate to say this, but it bears repeating, if you are talking about cyber infrastructure, talking about laying a concrete lan in order to better protect from a national security perspective, and to some extent from energy

resource perspective, fine. but there is still a lot of divide, chief among them how to pay for it. you've got democrats saying they want to raise taxes, republicans saying they are not going to budge, and play this forward. if you subscribe to the notion that republicans will win back control of the house of representatives in 2022, there is no way that a major tax overhaul would be able to get done and that the corporate tax rate would be able to increase. so the window for progressives in order to raise taxes, especially that corporate tax rate, closes with each day that gets closer to the midterm elections. i know we are still yearn year and a half away from that -- still a year and a half away from that. lisa: which parts of this wish list are going to get done, and going to get done as soon as possible? kevin: we talk about cyber cybersecurity, digital infrastructure, bolstering some

rural, as well as more urban communities from a cyber perspective, i think there is widespread approval for that. but again, a total pork package of roads and certain towns that many americans haven't heard of, that is unlikely. jonathan: kevin, never too early to talk about the next election. that is always the joy in washington, d.c. kevin: yes. and i was trying to work it in, aluminum? alumin-ium. jonathan: there you go. kevin cirilli, host of "sound on" on bloomberg radio, weekdays at 5:00 p.m. eastern. one of the only things we script on this program is that tees for kevin's program later. -- that tease for kevin's program later.

yields come in as we are set to hear from chair powell and secretary yellen a little later this afternoon. jonathan: there are -- lisa: there are some technical factors that i think are underappreciated. this note talking about how if you take a look at an fx adjusted basis, yields in the united states are the highest they have been for japanese investors since 2015. earlier, you had japanese investors pulling back because yields were looking low relative to other areas on a currency adjusted basis. that has shifted on its head, so you have to wonder, that foreign buyer coming back, how that actually drives yields down and creates support ahead of this $200 billion of treasury options this week. jonathan: a little later today, we have $60 billion of two-year notes. then tomorrow, 60 $1 billion of five-year notes. then $62 billion of seven your notes coming up later this week. from new york city this morning, good morning. coming up, michael cushman of --

michael kushma of morgan stanley, global fixed income cio. on the s&p, we are down 0.3%. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning to you all. live on tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." 12 months on, a huge snapback. it is about value overgrowth now. what we have is outperformance from the nasdaq, big tech, underperformance from the small caps and the russell. the nasdaq firm or by 0.1% -- nasdaq firmer by 0.1%. a big move into treasuries. we will discuss with michael kushma of morgan stanley in just a moment. switch up the board. travel and leisure stocks have been leading the way. they've been at all-time highs in europe, even with the difficulties we had on the continent. those difficulties get more pronounced.

that particular part of the market is down about 1% in europe, but you look within it, the likes of iag, the parent company of british airways, down about 4% this morning off the back of renewed concerns over the pandemic and extended lockdowns in places like germany. do you see it priced into the equity market -- you see it priced into the equity market, but not on the year. euro weaker, dollar stronger. came into the year was huge enthusiasm for everything but the u.s. dollar. right now, $1.1880, down about 0.4% on the session. peak has some is him on the continent, peak optimism -- peak pessimism on the continent, peak optimism in the u.s. where were we at the start of january? we are just south of 1.19 percent.

you would expect that to move a lot lower. i think you have to respect what the market is telling you, that it is struggling to move a whole lot lower, even with the incremental bad news out of europe and the incremental good news out of the united states. i think for that reason, this is what we keep have to asking questions about. why haven't we had a bigger break of the euro than $1.1880? here's taylor riggs. taylor: happy anniversary, the anniversary of the market. a year ago, we bottomed out the market, and did what was the fastest bear market and began the best first year -- out to market, ended what was the fastest bear market and begin the best first year of a bull market ever, if you can believe it. the best names this year, peloton, zoom, chewy, and

disney. these have been the big winners over the last year. let's get back to the action of the day if we flip up the board and take a look at some of the intraday losers and winners today. microsoft looking at a $10 billion deal for discord. viacom selling shares to help fund operations. that is a theme we have seen all year long. take a look at american airlines as well, part of a travel group asking biden to lift some international restrictions by may 1. i certainly would be traveling without restrictions. gamestop, can you believe it is only my second day on the show when i am talking about gamestop? jonathan: we hardly talked about the company itself and corporate strategy. we have just talked about the speculation around it. nothing to do with the fundamentals. i know you guys will be on top of that. taylor: we are going to be doing some earnings after the bell. we are looking at changes, of course, from an activist investor who was the cofounder of chewy, leading the shift to

digital. you mentioned some of the management changes at the time of the hour, so we will be looking at management, but really, can they become the next amazon? can you buy video games online instead of store through gamestop? jonathan: thank you. on the close a little later this afternoon on bloomberg tv, alongside caroline hyde, i believe romaine bostick is out this week as well. taylor, thank you very much. let's turn back to the bond market. yields are breaking 1.75 percent last week. this morning, in and around 1.60%. joining us now, michael kushma, morgan stanley global fixed income cio. i want to ask you whether we have the limits on the upper end of the selloff for yields to go higher. i would ask you the process you go through to determine whether we have met that moment, to

determine whether it has exhausted itself. what would you look for? michael: looking at sustainability of the economic worker have very -- economic recovery we are having right now. the selloff we have had so far is perfectly logical and rational given the surge in growth expectations and the dovishness of the fed, not taking away the punch bowl before the party has started. given the dataflow we have gotten, it seems very reasonable. but at some point, around that 1.75% level, the market processes that information. as you mentioned earlier, the u.s. bond yields on a currency adjusted hedge basis are very high by global standards. i think we are now looking for the next bit of information in terms of where we are going to go from here.

will the world post-2023 on the fed's horizon look like 2017, 2018? jonathan: let's talk about a sickly what you just mentioned, deceleration. if you look at the fed's call, 6.5% for gdp growth 2021, what is the degree of deceleration into 2022 and 2023 that you and the team at morgan stanley anticipate? michael: that pattern is pretty reasonable. if you are looking at a longer-term growth trajectory, inflation expectation for the tips market or the swaps market, there's no real change in long-term inflation excitations. it is not suggesting that the market is convinced that the world is changing longer-term. we are going to have a booming

economy, and that trajectory does not look unreasonable. everything is peaking. inflation peaking in the next 12 months. why should interest rates go whole lot higher? lisa: but at the same time, people say why should 10-year gilts be below the longer-term expectations for inflation, which is above 2%. this is the conundrum. can we get negative real rates for a prolonged time, and what does that imply? i do wonder, talking about foreign to mr. -- foreign investor demand, given the price point and where the currency is, investors will start flooding and for the foreseeable future. michael: it is a good question. we have already seen the bank of japan talk about loosening their yield curve control. if they do that, unless japanese yields rise, that produces the incentive to move to the united states, so we are seeing around the world adjustments for

emerging markets in particular, and central banks raising rates in several countries. it is a very uncertain time, but there's no doubt that the foreign demand for u.s. fixed income, whether it is treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, is very important. i thing one of the reasons yields rise as fast at they did was the fact that inflation gets to a more higher-level and step back and, so i would expect them to step back and, particularly because -- back in, particularly because volatility looks like it is sliding. lisa: this thursday with the seven-year auction upcoming, especially in light of the fact that there has been that change in the regulatory exemption, the slr exemption, and banks may be more reluctant to provide a buffer to some of the treasuries in the auction. michael: we don't see that.

it is certainly possible. it is another wildcard to the actual absorption process of auctions. banks have less they can do to adjust their balance sheets and the slr holdings in order to accommodate the short-term needs. plus, they will make other adjustments to take it down to the balance sheet, at least temporarily. but the foreign demand looks like it will recover and come back at the margins. we will see how much it does. but again, growth is peaking. the markets pricing and rates -- the market is pricing and rates for 2023. it looks like we will have to get stronger dated to dislodge the fed or get people to push real rates back toward zero. jonathan: are you a buyer of treasury yields, or are you still avoiding that story? michael: right around here, yes,

we are more interested in buying than selling at these levels. jonathan: ok, very diplomatic there. michael kushma, morgan stanley global fixed income cio. your yields in about five or six basis points, a bit into this bond market. lisa: the uncertainty michael kushma was talking about is really important, this idea that emerging-market nations are raising interest rates. we saw that in turkey of course, a unique story with the recent ouster of their head of the central bank. but they are not alone. this is the story, tightening policy for ultra low yields around the world. do we see a story where yields can creep higher because you don't have a race to the bottom? that is a huge shift. jonathan: and a fiscal impulse as well.

how permanent is that fiscal impulse? is it something that stays with us? that comes down to politics and elections which is why we should continue to have that conversation with kevin downing washington. -- kevin down in washington. lisa: although i will say you are getting more people talking about how to pay for it, and the more this seems like a temporary impulse. that is the reason why you've got some of the democrats trying to get through a plan as quickly as possible before people lose sight of what just happened, because otherwise, the fiscal hawks -- i don't know if you can really call them hawks. jonathan: we haven't seen the fiscal hawks and power for a long time. for me, what is really interesting at the moment is how the market responds to the conversation in washington, and the bias is really clear. very interested in the spending, not listening just yet to the tax hikes. i wonder when that comes on the radar in a more pronounced way. navy and in the several months.

that is where the bias is at right now. focus on the good stuff, maybe not so much on the other stuff and what it could mean down the road. good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the state of things is follows. equities down 0.3 percent. testimony on capitol hill a little bit later. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. for the second time in less than a week, there has been a mass murder in the u.s. police say amen with a rifle open fire in a supermarket in boulder, colorado, killed in -- say a man with a rifle opened fire in a supermarket in boulder, colorado, killing 10 people. treasury secretary janet yellen and fed reserve chair jerome powell will get a sense of how

congress feels about rates and the deficit. president biden is on the verge of proposing a more extensive bill to fix infrastructure. the biden adminstration is taking part in a climate summit cohosted by china today. that comes just a few days after the two countries squared off in their first face-to-face meeting since joe biden took office. china is response will for about 30% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. after the bell today, gamestop reports earnings for the first time since it became the poster child for meme stocks. but those results may not matter as much as its effort to recast the brick-and-mortar chain into an online merchant. shares are up more than 930% this year. gamestop is hoping to attract gamers online to make purchases. the chain has already closed hundreds of its stores. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are at a critical point in this pandemic, the fork in the road where we as a country must

decide which path we are going to take. we must act now, and i am worried that if we don't take the right actions now, we will have another avoidable surge, just as we are seeing in europe right now, and just as we are so aggressively doing vaccinations. jonathan: here's the price action as we count you don't to testimony from chairman powell and secretary yellen a little bit later. equity futures come in about 0.3%. a bid into the bond market. yields still lower, down by about 5.5 basis points to 1.64% on tens. $59 handle on wti, $59.31. underperformance coming from the russell come of the small caps. nasdaq 100 futures now positive

by almost euro .1%. can we revisit that just a second, that comment from the cdc? "we must act now, and i am worried that if we don't act now, we will have another avoidable surge just as we are seeing in europe right now and just as we are aggressively scaling up vaccination." is that a warning because there's worry, and a -- worry, or a warning from the data that is really justifying alarm? lisa: there is data taking higher in places, new york and new jersey among them. this goes to what dr. amos a delta was talking about, the sort of tall -- dr. adalja was talking about, the sort of order.

do you have to vaccinate a greater proportion of the overall population to get to herd immunity if you have these variants circulating more aggressively? jonathan: let's bring in professor lawrence gostin of georgetown university. i feel like people have the fear of god put into them over the last 12 months, particularly a year ago, around this time. the more they hear warnings like this, increasingly to become desensitized to them. if that kind of level of alarm justified by the data you see? lawrence: i think she is right, the head of the cdc. we are heading, and the next four to six, maybe eight weeks, for a perilous period because you have enormous pandemic fatigue, some people completely fed up with it. they don't want to mask. they don't want to distance. they want to go to restaurants.

you are also seeing variants that are taking hold in the united states. in addition to that, governments, state governors, cities are taking down their mask mandates and removing them. so that combination of factors does worry for the foreseeable future. but i have to say, after that, i really think we are going to be starting to move out of it. public health officials shouldn't understate the importance and the value of vaccination. it can get us back to a very near point of normal by late spring, and certainly by the summer. so these vaccines are incredibly good. they prevent hospitalizations and deaths almost by 100%, and that is really good news. so we should just hold on there for a few more weeks, and i think we are going to be in really good shape. jonathan: do you think we've got

a messaging problem at the moment? lawrence: i think we do. in a way, i understand my colleagues raising the alarm. i just think for the next short pub will of time, it is the boy who cried wolf too often. i think if we can make it very clear that these vaccines can get us to a really good place, until we get a sufficient number of a population that is vaccinated, we are still in a good deal of trouble, and we still have a lot of mutations. the vaccine could create a dangerous significant variant in addition to that. but i do think we need to change our messaging to one of just hold on, and things are really going to be a lot better. lisa: the concept of the proportion of the population you need to vaccinate in order to get to herd immunity is where i

wanted to go. how much does that proportion increase as these variations get hold, and people go out and party? lawrence: it is a really good question. the truth is, to the extent that the variants actually create greater transmissibility, the higher the herd immunity w will need in the population. the truth is herd immunity has become a cult term now, and really, what we want to do is just vaccinate as much as our population as we can so we can break those chains of transmission. we wanted as soon as we can, so i really think we want to roll this vaccine out to younger people in our population so that we can really get a hold of it.

but we are in a battle. we have seen that this is one of the most widely viruses i've ever seen. you just have to sit back and look at mother nature and say i really do respect you. but vaccines are powerful, too. lisa: i think everybody has a new respect for mother nature. there's also a question about messaging around the astrazeneca vaccine. astrazeneca coming out and saying that the numbers being called into question by u.s. health officials is based on data where they cutoff was february 17. they say they are going to issue results of primary analysis within 48 hours. what do you make of the confusion around astrazeneca? lawrence: i am just wondering about that company right now. if you remember back, the confusion when they first put out there clinical trial results and said that a single-dose was more effective than a double

dose, the clinical trials were designed as a double dose, so that baffled public health experts. we just didn't understand how the company could be cherry picking its data. then it had the fiasco in europe, that i don't know it was their fault, but the halt in the rollout with astrazeneca's vaccine due to reports of blood clots, which the european medicines agency said was really not closely related. and now this. why would you come out early and announce clinical data in the united states, and then a day later have the national institutes for health refute you? that is very unusual. jonathan: is it unusual for dr. felty to say the same thing without going through the data first? -- for dr. fauci to say the same thing without going through the data first? lawrence: well, i know tony very

well. [indiscernible] jonathan: professor, we got to let you go. georgetown university professor lawrence gostin there. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> the public is still engaged. volumes are still heavy. flows are still strong. >> we have enough going on this year to push the economy well above potential. >> it would be a mistake to assume the u.s. is now china and can sustain growth at these astronomic levels. >> i just don't think the fed is ever going to take runaway inflation. >> this seems to me to be a year in which main street beats wall street. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.

jonathan: