to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. >> we are reemerging from a recessionary environment, and this recession is different from some of the others. >> when you have this much stimulus thrown into the market, we are going to see things happen like we see today. >> a bunch of the markets could look frothy. there might be room for the fed to normalize rates. > the economy and the stock markets don't always go in step. this seems to me to be the year when main street beats wall street. >> people are still going to want a high share of safe assets in their portfolio. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene,

jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: are we hitting pause on the cyclical trade? from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us on monday. your equity market back up. we advanced 0.3%. we are still reacting to that move we saw in the russell yesterday, lower at 3.6%. lisa: a big decline there. mona mahajan mentioned this, talking about the retail investor being really involved last year. i really want to emphasize how much we are seeing retail investors perhaps take a pause themselves as they can actually spend money on things like airplane tickets. maybe not in europe, but certainly in the united states. they can actually go out and use their cash. this to me as one of the biggest swing factors in the next couple of months.

jonathan: it plays into the broader theme. the cliche, you buy the rumor, sell the news. this is between peak expectations and peak growth. want to make a move before you see the data. you want to make a move around peak expectations, which is terribly difficult to do. we have started to see expectations really ramp up over the last several weeks. you see that in the forecast for tenure yields, the forecast for the u.s. economy, the gdp through 2021. lisa: it is one reason why i think jay powell's message is so difficult today at those hearings, alongside janet yellen. the senate banking committee toggling between hope for the economy while also explain why they are keeping their foot on yields, continuing to buy bonds, talking about how this is going to be temporary, not that big of an inflationary push upwards, and perhaps people's expectations of runaway inflation and incredible growth have been overstated.

it is a tough message to get across, and one that markets are digesting and continue to struggle with. jonathan: if you just take the forecast right now, deceleration is going to be the buzzword. 6.5% gdp for 2021, 2.1 for 2023 -- rather, 2.2%. i think that is the conversation we've got to have increasingly, a lot more about the deceleration from 2021 into 2020 through -- into 2022 and 2023. what does trend growth look like, and what do i want to own in that environment? lisa: how do you look at that with these question marks around the stimulus plan that might be dragged out 10 years? marvin barth earlier on the show was talking about hippos and elephants, talking about is al's -- about gazelles, and our next

guest talking about ugly duckling. animal theme today? jonathan: what would you like to do with it? [laughter] lisa: if you could give any animal -- no, i am not going to go there. but i do think there is a sort of feeling of trying to give some sort of flavor to this narrative, which is getting increasing would confusing. jonathan: let me turn to the price action quickly. in the equity market, a list on the s&p 500. of 14, 15 points, we advanced zero point 15% -- we advanced 0.15%. in the fx market, the euro negative. kit juckes of socgen really highlighting that move we saw lower, working the 200 day moving average on euro-dollar right now. just quickly come on wti, $59.16, up by about 2.4%. huge focus on the blockage in the suez canal, and i understand the latest headlines that i have seen is they are still working

on trying to alleviate that chokepoint on a really important trade route. lisa: gac coming out and saying that could possibly get alleviated by today or tomorrow. there are incredible photographs of this small tugboat tugging at the bottom of this massive shipping container, hoping to budget where it was marooned. there is a question about how much this raises focus on the larger issues of supply chain kinks that have created issues and because shipping prices to rise globally. but this is transitory and temporary. jonathan: and really weighed on auto manufacturing. the chip issue has really weighed on auto supply. matt miller has been all over that on the early edition of this program. let's turn to the mai capital strategist and she portfolio manager. i want to start here, something i have talked about often with you. half of the game often is to try to provide therapy for your clients to stay invested, to stick with the theme, to watch

it play out fully. we always get strangled by recency bias. it just grips us and doesn't let us go, so when you see a correction of 3%, 4%, 5%, you start to confuse it with a new trend. what i want to understand is the best way to approach these markets with all of that in mind. guest: it is nice to be with you again. i think the biggest news is to keep your eye on the long-term and be aware of changes. that was true a year ago when the market bottomed. it is certainly true in the last few weeks of what i am now calling the post-covid market, although the last couple of days haven't felt that way. biggest news this week is from the fed. i think we've got jerome powell acting like dirty harry, i want to say dirty jerry. he is saying go ahead, make my day to the bond market. he really means he is going to keep rates low for at least a couple of years, so that has real big consequences. he doesn't care how long -- how

high the long and goes. he wants a steep curve, and we are getting that, and we all better get used to that and set up our portfolios accordingly. jonathan: so set up your portfolio accordingly for me. chris: well, low interest rates on the short end, but higher rates on the long end, which also has consequences. i would say there's two opportunities. in spite of the variants and the problems we are having in europe, i really think it is wise to invest in a post-covid market. it is a question of timing. is this going to be delayed by a matter of weeks or a month or two? but this post-covid world is coming like a locomotive. there has never been this much stimulus, as you know. we let the cyclicals. financials ought to do well. banks can loan at higher rates. the consumer is flush with cash as he or she hasn't been in a duration -- na generation.

-- hasn't been in a generation. the other thing that has been interesting is how quickly the rotation has been happened. i have these rotational ugly ducklings which were the stars of 2020, which have really been left behind. there's a few i would just like to throw out. one is home depot, which really has not done much since february of last year. it was a stay-at-home stock, and now nobody wants that. they are selling at the lowest relative pe ratios and more than 10 years. so companies like that ought to do well going forward. lisa: rotational ugly ducklings. we had marvin barth talking about gazelles, elephants, and hippos. how do you come up with this stuff, chris? [laughter] chris: you know, you force it on me, lisa. you guys want us to be interesting. but seriously, the rotation gets left behind, and it is what is

in fad, gamestop or bitcoin, but the market is a weighing machine. if home depot or lockheed martin or facebook can produce earnings, the market will return to them. lisa: that's where i was going to go, the signposts to learn whether your optimism is being born some fruit going forward. what are you looking for? is it just the earnings reports, or is it something else in the economic data that will give you confidence your view is correct? chris: we really studied hard the individual companies' inco statementsme -- companies' income statements. there are companies in the cyclical rebound that can't do that. there are many companies in the energy sector, for example, that don't really earn their cost of capital.

so even though they may have a decent three, 6, 9 months this year as the economy rebounds, they are not really great long-term investments. on the other hand, these rotational ugly ducklings will come over the long term, continue to produce strong, reliable returns. and when they are out-of-favor, it is time to buy. jonathan: chris, always good to see you, sir. chris grisanti, mia capital management portfolio manager. want to turn briefly back to the news out of germany and the u-turn from chancellor merkel and the last day or so. she asked forgiveness from the german citizens. totally backed down on an easter lockdown, but goes on to say, " we must break the third corunna wave." that is the -- third corunna wave -- third corona wave." that is the reality of this situation.

lisa: that is the issue around this. basically, if you issue guidance that the publishing views as to strict or infeasible because of the fatigue that has said in, they are not going to follow it. what is the realistic guidance to follow? it does raise a messaging problem when hospitals are plateauing, not getting dramatically worse, but you have a group of people saying, enough. we are exhausted. our kids are struggling, whether it is at school or socially. it is a difficult message to send. this was not a good move for michael, and she is a knowledge it -- for merkel, and she is nudging it -- she is acknowledging it. jonathan: i wanted to touch on it earlier on, what do you think of michael o'leary saying people will rebel? lisa: he's not wrong, but that is a tough business strategy to go by. break the rules, come back on our planes. jonathan: i'm not sure if that is the actual strategy with the

ryanair ceo. coming up, congressman don beyer , representative from virginia and chair of the commerce committee. good morning. for our audience worldwide, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the blockage that has disrupted traffic through one of -- traffic through one of the worlds biggest shipping routes has now been moved to the bank of the waterway. once it is towed to a different position, dozens of vessels caught in a logjam could be allowed to sail through the canal. in germany, the plan for a five-day nationwide lockdown over easter has been scrapped. chancellor angela merkel says she made a mistake and backing it and ask for forgiveness for germany's citizens. merkel trying to handle a surge in coronavirus infections and what has been a sluggish ramp up

of vaccinations. it is the same old story in israel, where a deeply divided country has failed to resolve a political impasse in its fourth election in just two years. neither prime minister benjamin netanyahu nor his opponent have a clear path to forming a coalition government. if no one is able to build a parliamentary majority, that means there could be another election. president biden urging congress to pass gun control measures in the wake of the shooting at a colorado supermarket. the president called for background checks and a ban on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. earlier this month, the house passed a bill that would require back ground checks for all firearm sales, including those at gun shows. tesla is going all in on bitcoin . it stuns the market last month with an investment in the world's largest cryptocurrency. now ceo elon musk says you can buy one of the electric cars with bitcoin. he also says any bitcoin paid

will not be converted into a traditional currency. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

chair powell: our best to view is that the effect on inflation

will be neither particularly large, nor persistent. we are living in a world of strong disinflationary pressures around the world for a quarter-century, and we don't think that a one time surge in spending leading to temporary price increases would disrupt that. however, we have the tools to deal with that. jonathan: chairman powell on capitol hill, day two today, in front of the senate banking committee. good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. live on tv and radio, here's the price action, about one hour and 12 minutes away from the opening bell. up 0.75% on the nasdaq. the s&p 500 up 0.4%. euro-dollar slightly weaker, coming in about 0.1%. accrued snapback, up by two point accrued snapback -- a crude snapback, up by 14% -- by

2.4%. we can head to washington now to catch up with don beyer, u.s. representative out of virginia come on capitol hill. just to go over some of the priorities on bipartisan interceptor proposal, i want to read a coat -- bipartisan infrastructure proposal, i want to read a quote. "it is nothing more than a partisan exercise so the democrats can set up a multitrillion dollar, one-sided spending bill." can you tell us why it is more sincere than that? rep. beyer: i was really disappointed in ranking member brady's comments because it didn't have any connection to reality. we invited all democrats and republicans to tell us what their priority should be in this infrastructure bill. i think kevin brady knows there are many democrats, including me, who hope this bill is largely paid for. this is a once in a generation infrastructure bill, and we would love to have everybody's input. by the way, it is going to

affect all of those republican districts in major ways. jonathan: let's talk about what happened previously. do you think they have been conditioned by the approach to the $1.9 trillion bill, when many republicans felt frozen out of the process? rep. beyer: yeah, although they weren't frozen out of the process. there were extensive markups on this. the most controversial part of this was the $1400, which came from their president, donald trump, and is affecting all of their folks. there's a big piece against state and local government funding. to the best of my knowledge, no republican governor or mayor's refused to accept these funds to strengthen their communities. it was a wildly popular bill, is a wildly popular bill among all americans, including republican americans. just not their elected officials in washington. lisa: you said that they were presented with a bill that was mostly or largely paid for, but isn't that the issue?

the way it is being paid for through tax hikes on wealthier individuals and corporations is something that republicans have said is a no go for them, something that they do not want to do. how will you reconcile that issue? rep. beyer: i don't know how we are going to reconcile it. i think we have to just come at it with the facts. we had a hearing before the pandemic on infrastructure in ways and means, where virtually every democrat and republican said we need to have a way to pay for this that needs to be sustainable. we know that the gas tax is a no starter for many different reasons, but we also saw yesterday that u.s. corporate effective tax rate last year was 7.8% after the jcpoa. the top 1% had their net worth increased by $14 trillion. or just the "new york times" editorial sunday about how personal income is almost all reported in tax, but this huge

part of business income is not, to the tune of $650 billion -- or $1.6 trillion a year i think was the number. there's a lot of wealth out there that would not affect the economy. lisa: these are points that are widely accepted among democrats. however, there are republicans that come back and say you are going to prevent a certain amount of dynamism, investment in things like infrastructure corporations themselves if they have to pay higher taxes. we can debate that until the cows come home, but the question really is, is there any wiggle room to negotiate higher taxes with republicans, or is it going to have to be done without any of their support? rep. beyer: well, i wish there were wiggle room. one place that might be fruitful is looking at carbon pricing. at the american petroleum institute, along with exxon and others at the business roundtable, have all said that

carbon pricing should be on the table. 80 we get republicans to do that, and at a minimum, pay for the roads and bridges and asphalt and stuff that they really like. jonathan: what do you think the optimal approach is, then? do you think it is a series of small bills or still one large bill? rep. beyer: i prefer one large bill, but whatever it takes to get the job done. i know we can take things we can get republicans on board with, like highways, roads and bridges, do that with their votes, and then the other, more controversial things like broadband, electrical grade monetization -- grade monitors asian -- grade monetization -- grade modernization -- electrical grid modernization, might have to be done otherwise. we are about to dive into that

deeply. i think there needs to be. when you get a completely unregulated currency, while it is exciting and interesting, the possibility is for everybody from terrorists to international mafia types using it, or people just avoiding taxes on a large scale. i can't tell you what the regulation is going to be, but it is worth a very deep dive this year by congress. jonathan: did we create some trouble there in your house? [laughter] rep. beyer: he really does want to go outside. jonathan: i can tell. i let you go, sir. congressman, it's good to see you. congressman don beyer they are a virginia. let's turn back to bitcoin. tesla accepting payment there. it is a huge shift. what i find interesting is not that they are accepting payment in bitcoin. it is what they are doing with the bitcoin afterwards.

if the word from elon musk is anything to go by, it is nothing. they will keep it in bitcoin. lisa: we have seen a number of companies, i believe square said something similar. this is a question though, that the price of bitcoin is ultimately tethered to the dollar. will it continue to be looked that way, particularly when it comes to buying products? is this more of a commodity than it is a currency? a lot of it hinges on that regulatory landscape, which is why congressman by her -- congressman bayer was important to weigh in on it. jonathan: they are not ready to move yet. that much is clear. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. counting you down to the opening bell, about 60 minutes away. on the s&p 500, futures up 17. we advanced 0.4%. nasdaq futures up 0.7%. yields with a lift now of just a

basis point. the euro still weaker, though off session lows. crude bouncing back by 2.7%. it has been a struggle over the last week for crude and energy stocks. wti at $59.30. coming up, some data from america. we will get the reaction from michael mckee and torsten slok of apollo management. ♪

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jonathan: economic data in america. this is bloomberg live on tv and radio. equity futures pushing higher. s&p 500 up .4%. let's bring in michael mckee for more. good morning. michael: we are looking at the new orders for durable goods report. it is not a good one. it is the first decline in nine months. february's new orders go down 1.1%. that is $2.9 billion. it followed a 3.5% increase in january. the forecast was for .5%. you exclude transportation and new orders were down .9%. a little bit less. excluding defense, new orders were down .7%.

the thing we always want to look at is the capital goods orders. capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, down 1.1%. .8%. it is not a good look overall for the economy in terms of activity in february. remember how bad february was. we do not have a breakdown of snow shovels but i bet there were orders for those. lisa: is there a larger issue here of companies not investing as much as people thought they might in anticipation of this reopening? michael: it is hard to say. these numbers are always so lumpy. we had a big gain in january of 3.5%. maybe this is payback. companies ordered at the beginning of the year because they knew inventories were short and they did not need to do as

much in february. we will wait and see how the march numbers turn out. it does tell us we are not going to rocket ahead based on business spending but we are waiting to see how it averages out over time. jonathan: there is a question as to whether the weather excuse is doing too much heavy lifting for what happened in february? michael: there is always a problem with the weather. retailers are notorious for saying we would've sold a lot more stuff except for the weather in the winter. this is broad-based. you see declines in most of the categories. one thing we watched carefully as automobiles. they were down 8.9%. some of that is the fact people could docket out because of the weather. some of that is fewer cars being available because of a semiconductor shortage. some of that is probably the fact people bought so many cars during the pandemic they may not need as much.

one thing i want to pass along is aircraft down 21.7%. that is the boeing number. their numbers will be lumpy in affecting this because of their lengthy shut down of the 737 assembly line. they will have some months where they get big numbers if they get them off the tarmac and count them as orders. it looks like a sitting there month. jonathan: a downside surprise on the economic data. no big move on the market. the bond market still unchanged at 1.62 on the u.s. 10 year. equity futures still positive, up .7% on the nasdaq, up .4% on the s&p. euro-dollar 1.1833. wti, $59.40. let's bring in torsten slok. you've seen your old colleagues put out there forecast for

growth, for gdp for 2021. six, sevens, big numbers. can we talk -- can we start with the acceleration you anticipate in 2021 and 2022? torsten: the report we just got is an important data point. we have seen the reopening trade do well, but jay powell said yesterday we are still almost 10 million jobs behind relative to where we were in february 2020. the bottom line is we will have a strong rope over the next few quarters -- a strong growth over the next few quarters in the reopening begins to play out. also households incorporates have a lot of cash on their balance sheets. these three tailwinds will give quite a boost to gdp growth. the keyword is the deceleration in growth becomes critical to figure out the timing, when is the peak in growth and what we

will see the numbers begin to slow down? lisa: we often speak of growth and inflation in tandem but they are distinct aspects of this economy. will we see a situation where we have robust growth but inflation that remains in the range the fed is expecting, which is pretty low? torsten: absolutely. there are number of one-off factors, base affects, commodity prices, health pricing issues that go into inflation. it is correct what jay powell is saying. it is all temporary. for the fed to think about an elation, it has to be persistent , it has to be a situation where the economy is oiling over -- is oiling over. we are nowhere -- is boiling over. we are nowhere near that point. we will have strong growth. why don't we create the 10 million jobs first that we are

behind, then we can have a discussion about persistent inflation problems. that is not this year. lisa: there a lot of strawman arguments being made against the 1970's type of inflation and how we will not see that. that seems likely we will not go back to that kind of rapid inflationary environment. there is this idea that not only have we printed all this money about to be unleashed into the economy where people can spend more, but there also supply chain tanks. -- supply chain kinks. these are all frictions as china gets less of a dominant place in the global import and export yield. these are frictions that could add to inflation. how do you account for that? torsten: that is correct. if you think about transportation costs or commodity prices more generally, how big of a share is that total cost for companies? as a starting point, about two thirds of a cost for companies is labor. if you want an overheating

economy, you need to see much more upward pressure on wages. he will not have that in a situation where the labor market is about 10 million jobs behind. there are some signs small businesses are saying the biggest problem now is they cannot find the right workers, the right quality of labor. there could be some pieces of evidence where you could have some wage pressure. very broadly speaking, it is true that there are some problems in the supply chain. in the bigger scheme of things, you think about the total cost for america, it is still the case commodity prices and supply chain issues are still -- modest problems compared to some of the things we need to see. jonathan: let's talk about labor. if this was 2009 and we were talking about 10 million jobs

short we would have a problem. we did have a problem. this is not 2009. this is 2021. governments are telling companies they have to stay shuttered in certain parts of the world, particular outside of america. with that in mind, i wonder how relevant that 10 million number is? is relevant if you are one of them. it is a struggle. where the optimistic tone in the hope comes from is as soon as you take the restrictions off, a lot of that will come back quickly. when we wake up in the summer, i want to understand where we are in the cycle. it will not be the same as what we saw out of 2009 into 2010. torsten: in some sense, we turned off the light, and the question is have the lights been turned on, can we get the smoke out of the chimneys of the factories that have been on hold. the issue is if you think about this in practical terms, you need to get airline capacity

back to where it was before. you need to get people to go to restaurants coming need to get people to go to sporting events and concerts. all of the face-to-face consumer service industries. it is difficult to see that as turning on the switch again and say now everyone will do these things. i think it will take some time before those things get back to the levels where we were in february 2020. the upside risk could be that employment comes back faster. 10 million is a pretty big number when he think about where we are today. i think jay powell will say and continue to emphasize that it is true there are significant tailwinds, but why don't we wait a little bit longer until we take the champagne bottle out and celebrate and say we have victory over the pandemic? it will take some time before we get to the point -- will probably have to get into next year before we get back to full employment and the economy again.

jonathan: let's finish on this race for employment. i do not know what it means. what does it mean for you? what is the data point that says we are there? torsten: that is why i am watching the dots in the dot plot from the fed forecast. projections are quite important as a guidepost for saying we had difficulties in markets, but what the fed is saying is the unemployment we need to get down to. they are saying we need to get down to limit rate around four. -- an unemployment rate around four. given where we are now with a rate today have more than 6%, we still have a ways to go. it could also be that some part of the labor market could be stronger, but it is critical this question of how far we are away from full employment. it is clear that we're probably

not going to get full employment in 2020 one. jonathan: good to catch up. important conversation. torsten slok, apollo global management chief economist. on the question of how quickly things will come back, business travel is a big debate on this program. how quickly will business travel come back? still unknown. lisa: and will it come back in its full form as people can lean on zoom to some extent, perhaps not entirely, but to some extent. there is also a bigger issue when you talk about business travel that fits into a larger story of a changing world in light of zoom, in light of the work from home trend, in light of some of the removal of services that may not come back here it as we talk about full employment, what will those jobs look like, particularly on the lower end, and how much retraining needs to happen to get people back into the labor market? jonathan: i think human interaction is important. if i can get an edge seeing a client face-to-face, people will

look for that edge. you do zoom and i will see the client and see who gets a deal. a lot of people on wall street are thinking the same way. lisa: i think you're right. i think on the margins there is a question of whether people will come back. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. as we approach the opening bell i will be catching up with brian nick to talk about the big debate -- has the cyclical trade run out of the? are we causing? are we correcting. this is bloomberg. ritika: a new survey finds president biden's likely wins on taxes will come in the form of higher individual rates. bloomberg surveyed 15 current and former white house aide specializing in tax policy. they set a proposal attacks unrealized capital gains cannot make it through congress. u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen has promised to work with

congress to ease the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions. it has been one of the key areas of focus for lawmakers in new york and new jersey. the limit was put in place by donald trump's tax law. janet yellen says she wants a fair remedy for the issue. american refinery supply more russian oil than ever. that is at a time when washington is talking about energy independence and warning europe not to become too dependent on moscow. sanctions prevent u.s. refiners from getting venezuelan crude and opec has cut back shipments so last year russian oil became an option. russia was the third largest supplier of oil to the u.s. in 2020. intel has unveiled an ambitious bid to regain its manufacturing lead. the company will spend billions of dollars on new factories, plus it will create a foundry business that will make chips

for other companies. it is an aggressive move, putting intel into direct combination with taiwan semiconductor manufacturing. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i like making museum successful. when i was a kid, three

afternoons out of five, after school, if i was not doing something else i was in a museum looking at thing. i love museums and i wanted to make them greater and greater. lisa: that was leonard lauder, estee lauder chairman emeritus and the son of the two people who founded this company. david rubenstein interviewed him on a peer-to-peer conversation set to air in the upcoming days. david rubenstein joining us, the host of peer-to-peer conversations as well as the founder of carlyle group joining us. a fantastic rags to riches story, one of the most storied makeup companies in the united states, estee lowder, what was the biggest standout message from the interview? david: the company started very moderately -- very modestly. larry lowder -- has often said

you join your mothers big company. when he joined it was $800,000 in revenue. he made his mother into the face of the company. she was not a business person. that was leonard. he didn't incredible job of building it into one of the most successful companies -- he did an incredible job of building it into the one of the most successful companies in the country. lisa: you asked him about a modern entrepreneur trying to get into the game in the same kind of way. what was his insight in how things have changed now versus then? david: more competition, harder. in those days it was easier to sneak up on competition. he had a big competitor who built revlon. revlon was the 800 pound gorilla. revlon once tried to buy estee lauder for $1 million and his mother decided not to do it. had they done so we would not have heard of estee lowder -- estee lauder.

it shows you can overcome competitors if you're smart, and leonard was. he was the genius behind the branding of a company in the business of the company. his mother was a terrific symbol of the company. lisa: i feel like we cannot talk to corporate leaders without talking about the pandemic and how it is affected their businesses. how has the idea that people are working from home and are not socializing is much affected the landscape for a makeup company that has to do with perception. has it been enhanced through instagram or has it been taken away from because people are not going out and being with their friends as much? david: people are putting makeup on where they go to their zoom calls. i do not think it has adversely affected the industry completely , but surely when people are not doing as much socializing as before, it is not as favorable. i think the company has incredible brand it now has something like 20 different brands. estee lauder is the main brand,

but they have bought many other brands over the years. lisa: since you yourself are cochair and cofounder of our lyle group, i want to ask -- of carlyle group, i want to ask you about the pandemic and how it has affected morale. we have heard from citigroup about how they plan to boost morale. we hear from another group of wall street firms that their employees are struggling at home after working with kids after having little break between home and work. what is your response to that? how much have you observed of zoom fatigue among your employees? david: zoom fatigue is everywhere. it has been over a year and i've been living essentially in this house for a year, a house i've lived in for 30 years but have not spent much time in compared to last year. i think ultimately the businesses that operate out of office buildings will go back. i doubt people will work five

days a week 10 hours a day in their office. people will increasingly want to spend some time working remotely. i think that is not a bad idea. i believe people would like to get back to work when they believe it is safe and they have to make certain there will not be any catching a virus. it will take another six to nine months before that happens. lisa: have you observed productivity is starting to decrease around the edges, among employees who are struggling with the work/home balance that has gotten upended by the pandemic? david: in the private equity world it is hard to say that because the private equity world has adopted to zoom quite well and we've been doing deals, raising money at a quite good pace. i cannot say productivity has gone down. i think everyone would like to get back to what used to be considered normal. i think normal in the future will be considered to have had some work done remotely. i do not think people will travel as they used to.

i used to fly halfway around the world for an hour meeting. i do not think people like me will do that again. lisa: that has been a debate we have been harping on. the idea of business travel returning. jonathan ferro made a good point that if i can bring you a bottle of wine and see you face-to-face i am more likely to win the deal versus not, so business travel will return. where will it return and where won't it return? david: travel that is global, where you have to travel halfway around the world meeting, that will be slow to come back. if it is going from washington to new york or new york to boston, that is relatively easier to do. i think shorter businesses will still see a lot of meetings. you have to travel a long time to get somewhere, that will be harder to get done. there'll will be some of that. some businesses require you to do that, but i think it will come back more slowly. lisa: going forward, the theme

of the morning has been peak optimism, peak reopening, and we have felt that a lot of the forward action of the earnings we are going to see has already been priced into the market. from your vantage point, do you see them starting to slow as people believe the window is up for peak perfection in markets as the economy has to catch up? david: predicting what is going to happen in the market is always a dangerous undertaking. i think as long as interest rates stay low, i think you will see a fair amount of deals getting done. i do not see a slowdown. i think the spac market has slowed down. it has been very robust. generally i think spac's are here to stay for a while, at least at some level. the financing markets are still relatively robust and i do not think a slowdown is imminent, in large part because the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill will keep

the economy in reasonable shape. lisa: david rubenstein, thank you for being with us. the interview is the nominal -- the interview is phenomenal. that was david rubenstein, founder of the carlyle group. you can catch the interview with leonard lauder at 9:00 tonight in new york. it will be airing on a continual basis. it does dig into the rags to riches story that used to be the hallmark of american capitalism. there is a question about how that has been transformed in an era of amazon and an era where there is more dominance by some of the top players. in market seeing a rally as we head into day two of testimony on capitol hill. janet yellen, jay powell taking the helm of the senate banking committee to talk about all things financing. the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan

as well as the idea of inflation. yesterday jay powell was pretty consistent with his messaging that inflation was going to pick up but not that much in there holding tight with interest rates low. i am lisa abramowicz alongside jonathan ferro and tom keene. that makes up bloomberg surveillance. ♪

♪ jonathan: day just go on capitol

hill right from new york city for our audience worldwide. the countdown to the open starts right now. let's get straight to it. we begin with the big issue. the cyclical trade losing steam. >> a pause in the rotation. >> it has been a significant seven months. >> the cyclicals in the reopening -- >> we've never seen those kinds of numbers. >> we are striving to take a pause. >> rates stabilized. >> i would not be surprised. >> there will be a battle. >> energy, financials, other cyclical plays. >> the market is reassessing the right valuation. >> you will not have a one-way trade. >> that trait will take a pause. jonathan: that trait has taken a pause. let's bring in kailey leinz and taylor riggs. kailey: this rotation from growth into value and cycli