♪ >> we are reemerging from a recessionary environment, and this recession is different from some of the others. >> the dollar was very expensive and is expensive because the u.s. had exceptional monetary policy. >> while much of the markets could look frothy, there might be room for the fed to normalize rates. >> it once a steep curve, and we are getting that, and i think we all better get used to that. >> they always keep on emphasizing it has to be persistent. it has to really be a situation where the whole economy is boiling over, and we are nowhere near that point at this stage. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is all about politics and policy. from new york, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back on monday. on the nasdaq, up about 0.4%.

the politics, the policy. eu summit a little bit later this afternoon, and president biden with a news conference. lisa: very much a focus on china-u.s. tensions, which appear to be rising after the confab in alaska. now we are having talks between the european union and the united states. really, the question you have raised, how much support will the u.s. and european union provide their companies to offset any negative ramifications from china's pushback to measures from the west? jonathan: we've got to talk about the relationship within the west, within the developed economies because that spat between europe and the u.k., there is a risk its bills over to the united states as well, over vaccinations. that is something i think was talked about coming into 2021, but not enough when it comes to the market. we go from synchronize growth to something more varied and broken down the net.

it is not think were not on than that -- down then that. it is not synchronized. lisa: that is one aspect of this, the political posturing, trying to foist responsibility onto vaccine producers rather than how the messaging has gone across, who has gotten the vaccine and when. jonathan: the issue around acceptance in europe is something that needs to be tackled in europe. even if you tackle the former, you've got to do something about the latter. that is what the struggle is in places like france. it is really interesting in the last couple of days just to see euro-dollar break back down and maybe threaten to break through $1.18, after we had all of this news pilot. and we've had a break this week. lisa: detention here of whether the opening later in the year, which is inevitable, the pandemic will end, but if the delay is going to cause

frictions that will cause less growth in that region at the same time that the u.s. is proposing more stimulus, and the u.s. dollar potential he has more upside, a growing contrarian theme we are hearing among fx strategists. jonathan: it about 90 minutes, we will get data and america. your equity market positive by 0.2% on the s&p 500, up 0.3% on the nasdaq. in the bond market, yields behaved after yields have been pushing higher week after week, going all the way back to the end of january. yields unchanged, 1.61% on ten s. lisa: i did include in my lookahead that we will be looking jobless claims because that has gotten so noisy and the markets are no longer trading off it, which i find really interesting. 12:00 p.m., we are getting that hearing on capitol hill of the tech giant ceos.

facebook's mark zuckerberg, google, twitter jack dorsey testifying. the key question is how are they going to get ahead of regulation that seems inevitable? there's bipartisan support to try to curb some of the presence and the immunity of tech giants over how the information gets displayed on their website. at one a talk p.m., we have been -- at 1:00 p.m., we have been counting down to this $62 billion of u.s. treasuries being sold. will we get a little bit more of a disruption? yesterday's 5-year note sale was a snoozer, although it was watching it from the pool. he was talking about it on twitter. jonathan: a classic tom keene. lisa: it is bearish when it gets too negative, and when it gets positive, everything is jolly. president biden is holding his

first news conference. expect him to host a series of questions on the southern border of the united states, on the u.s.-china relationship. to me, what might react most or has weighed most heavily on markets is what he indicates with respect to infrastructure spending and taxes. who is he going to raise taxes on? how committed is he to raising the corporate levy rate? that is an area he seems to be backing off a little bit. jonathan: i'm looking forward to this one a little bit later. joining us, chris verrone, strategas research strategist. what are you looking at really closely? chris: in the last week or two, what started as a very concentrated correction locally in tech in february has started to spread to the more cyclical corners of the market. i don't think any of this stuff is going to be stable, but it is

certainly uncomfortable. ultimately, probably the trickiest call in this business is attending to differentiate between just a pause or a correction versus the start of something more serious on the upside. i take some comfort that in the last week or two, even as the equity selling has become a little more pronounced, a little broader, the credit conditions have held up fine. bb, bbb have not widened. i think it is important to look at the reopening stocks, the energy names. credit hasn't really weakened in a new meaningful way there. i certainly think it is appropriate to raise one's guard as we get into the season in front of us, but i take some comfort in that. jonathan: as the selling broadens out and you start to get some consolidation, where do you think leadership comes from after the move we are seeing philip -- seeing develop? christopher: there has certainly

been an improvement in the more defensive corners of the market. you seen it with staples, with utilities. they have bounced here. i don't think they are trend changes, though. if the market is telling us that 1.60 percent or 1.70% 10 year yields is high, i think we see staples and utilities outperform more meaningfully. i don't think that's what this is. the most bullish case i can make for staples right now is simply a contrary or one -- a contrarian one, that everyone hates them and they can do a little better. i don't think that is enough to reclaiming the mental of leadership here. i also find it notable the last two or three weeks, industrials have actually started to firm here again. most industrials consolidated from december until mid-march. in the last two weeks, they have started to firm.

i think that is significant because of what you said about the dollar. this is not a new move higher in dollar. as the dollar rallies over the last four months, industrials consolidated. the fact that industrials are starting to take over leadership here again, i wonder if that actually means we are in the later innings of the dollar rally. is it time to back away from some dollar strength here? lisa: how much of this -- how much is this relevant to the infrastructure plan that the biden adminstration unveiled? christopher: we will let the market be the arbiter of that. when you look at the infrastructure related stocks, for months and months, they have been kind of at the top of the leadership roles in our works. so as you certainly know, the market is really good at quickly pricing a new information. the fact that those infrastructure type names have been as dominant as they have been not for a couple days or weeks, but a couple quarters, i think is certainly suggestive of

where the policy discussion is headed. lisa: can we talk about the technicals underpinning this pause in some of the highflying stocks of 2021? how much do you give credence to the narrative that it is the retail investor who just got their $1400 check from the u.s. government, now actually has other places to spend it other than the stock market, perhaps buying a plane ticket somewhere. how much credence to you give did this idea that there is underperformance to the russell 2000? christopher: it is a good question. i think what is actually more important right now is you are going to get your february and march first quarter statements and see brackets around here bond funds. most people in this market have never seen brackets around their bond funds. i think that is the catalyst ultimately for rotation, and perhaps that explains why some of the bond proxies in the

market have acted better here over the last 6, 7, 8 weeks. as bonds have gone down, retail is looking for bond-like substitutes in the equity markets. i think that is frankly a bigger story here than what seems to be the very myopic look at, oh, we just got a lot of money in bank accounts because of the stimulus. why are small caps not acting better? i think that is too myopic and shortsighted for what the bigger view is here. we talked about this before. when you look at the gamestop mania of mid-january, what else happened that week? german 30 year yields went positive that week. swiss 30 year yields went positive that week. austria sold 100 year paper that week. where is the real bubble?

was it in the mania of gamestop, or in sovereign debt? that is the more important question for everyone out there. jonathan: i think you are so right to bring it up. i think it was peter tchir of academy securities that put it out, that often the bubble is in the risk free perceived assets. we will have to talk about this another day. chris verrone of strategas partners, thank you. it is always where you think safety exists, where the risk and really live, and it is perceived risk free assets which people have been worried about for a while that have started to bite in the last several months. lisa: this idea that we have the worst start to the year this century for global bonds, what effect does that have on investors? a lot of people have come on this show and said the effect is to rotate more into stocks, but how much is it the opposite, to hunker down and seek safety even more? jonathan: coming up and around

15 minutes, we will catch up with -- chief strategist as we look over to catching up with president biden a little later. on the s&p, we advanced 0.2%. from new york city, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. an elite crew of south watchers will try to free that massive -- of salvage or's -- of salvagers will try to free that massive ship stuck in the suez canal. about 180 ships are gridlocked in the can now, which connects the red sea to the mediterranean , incurring roughly $10 billion of oil and consumer goods. kim jong-un's regime fired two ballistic missiles, a violation of human resolutions.

south korean military says the missiles landed in waters between japan and the korean peninsula. it was the first north korean missile launch in roughly a year. bernie sanders is proposing bigger tax increases than the ones president biden is considering. the senate budget committee chairman told npr he will introduce legislation to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 35%. that is what it was before donald trump's 20 cut. sanders is also pushing for a tax on wealthy americans. the sec has reportedly started an inquiry into the frenzy over specs. special-purpose -- over spa c's, special purpose acquisition company's. regulators want to know about deal fees, internal controls, and compliance. a fintech is wrapping up -- the

company let users connect to bank accounts to transfer money. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ chair powell: in the near term, we do expect there will be some upward pressure on prices and a

technical base effect as the low readings for march and april of last year drop out of the calculation. we don't expect that that upward pressure will produce substantially higher prices or that the effects will be persistent. we expect that they will be transitory or temporary. jonathan: that is going to be the buzzword for the next several months, transitory. jerome powell, the federal reserve chair, talking again on capitol hill. good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your price action this thursday morning. equities pushing higher, snapping back. it is a mild move, up a little more than 0.1% on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq, we advance a little more than 0.25%. euro-dollar not really doing anything. euro-dollar, $1.1813. the chairman is sticking to script, speaking to npr. "the upgrade to the fed forecast

reflects vaccine and fiscal aid. when the economy has recovered, we will roll back aid, and we are strongly committed to do percent inflation over time -- to 2% inflation over time." lisa: he should just send in a cassette tape and press play. yes, i am dating myself. the one thing that was interesting to me is that he said he did not does -- he did not observe disorderly market conditions, and that is when he would see the fed meeting to step in. the key question for me, what does disorderly look like? how high is the bar? jonathan: i wish tom was here for that moment. a cassette tape? [laughter] lisa: i mean, i just think, what else are you going to do to press play? i guess you could have a cd player. jonathan: have you got anything left? what's in the abramowitz household right now? lisa: i just remember making

mixtapes. jonathan: i used to record the radio, too. good times. tom keene did it on vinyl a long time ago. [laughter] those old-school record players. the 1920's was a great decade, he told me. tom will be back with us on monday. i hope he's watching, too. kevin cirilli, chief washington correspondent, joins us. we have a news conference with the president of the united states. why has it taken so long? that's been the question i have been confronting everything lower of this morning. kevin: talking to sources at the white house and on capitol hill, they say it is by design. they wanted to come in and have a decidedly different approach to dealing with the press than the previous administration, and that is what has happened. that has actually, to peel back the curtain a little bit, has caused some type of friction between the white house press corps, as well as with the administration. but we will see how the day's

press conference goes. jonathan: if there's a topic you think this president would like to avoid today, what do you think that would be? kevin: i'm not sure. i think may pertaining to anything pertaining to his own political future as it relates to whether or not he is going to seek a second term. but i think in terms of policy, jen psaki will brief him accordingly. lisa: there's a question also about gun control and what his guidance will be after the shooting in colorado in a grocery store that left 10 people dead. are we expecting any policy announcements, given that he has started to talk more about this issue? kevin: yes, and already, the administration has come out and said they want to support legislation that they argue would close gun show loopholes, as well as provide background checks for any individual who wants to purchase a gun. it's be candid, it is a lot more

complicated of an issue than that, especially when you've got places all around the country where people purchase guns online and outside of gun stores. but i want to be frank, this is policy implications. we have talked about it here before, but it bears repeating, the filibuster. should senator joe manchin, a centrist democrat from west virginia who is a staunch bipartisan ally on some type of significant gun reform, should he feel that this shooting mandates change, he could support the filibuster, and that in and of itself, that process move have deep implications on a host of every other issue we talk about on this program, from geopolitics to raising taxes. lisa: we will have to have you on to talk specifically about

what getting rid of the filibuster would look like. in the meantime, we talk about infrastructure planning that might be years out. there is a mirror term concern, a market survey of business leaders in the united states, where they said they are seeing the most severe supply disruptions they have ever seen in as long as the survey has been in existence. is there any talk about immediate actions to try to shore up some of those supply chains or offer incentives to companies to bring up production back to the united states? kevin: yes, and i think you are starting to see this. yesterday i spoke with some lawmakers who pointed to some manufacturing loopholes they would like to see closed, and i think you can actually see some bipartisan agreement in terms of attracting other businesses like intel, which is a $20 billion investment in arizona, to do just that. jonathan: kevin, good to see you. looking forward to the news conference a little bit later. kevin cirilli, chief washington

correspondent, and host of "sound on" on bloomberg radio a little bit later, 5:00 eastern. looking forward to that. let me pick up on some news coming out of the u.k., some reporting around prime minister boris johnson. looking at the role of vaccine certification, learning more about that in the second week of april. that conversation has been in the united states as well. we still do not have enough clarity on what you can do once you have been vaccinated. we still do not have enough clarity on the work being done behind the scenes on governments once we have been vaccinated on whether they will still draw the line between those who have been vaccinated and those who haven't , and offer freedoms to those who have and those who have not. that is going to be a very politically charged debate, not just backed by the science, but

backed by ethical issues as well. what i have been trying to understand when we speak to health experts, these ethical questions about not creating a two-tiered society, or are the questions backed by science? we still don't have the clarity on a massive issue that will dictate how these economies open, how we interact with each other, individuals, companies. we still don't know what the year looks like for the year ahead. lisa: it is amazing how much we are living in the biggest science experiment, social experiment, economic experiment of recent history. the idea that when you talk about vaccines, not only don't we know how much they can spread it if they contract the virus, once they are vaccinated, we also don't know how long that lasts. that also goes to the idea of global vaccine passports. how are we going to get this data, and how politically will it be received to get the global economy back on its feet? jonathan: some people get very

angry about this. we are waiting for the government to tell us what we can and can't do. people are sick to death of that conversation, particularly in the united states of america. coming up, david lebovitz of jp asset management. with equities turning a little bit lower now, this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. slightly negative now on the s&p 500. the russell down 0.4%. outperformance on the nasdaq, still in positive territory. what is interesting about this move, crude rose over, down by 2% -- crude roles over, down by 2%. we spent a lot of time talking about treasuries. relatively speaking, i don't think we have spent enough time talking about energy and how dominant the energy story has been as a factor to how people view things cross asset. switch up the board and go into the bond market. twos went well, fives were solid. sevens later.

let's finish with the dollar. socgen this morning, a crisis of confidence in european growth. european dollar just about holding on $1.18. through the 200 day moving average a couple of days ago. it is all about differentials. it is not about this and green eyes to story coming into this year. i wonder how that develops in the year ahead. the u.s. is leading this story. what does the back half look like, and is europe start to get -- and does europe start to catch up? that is another question this morning. i believe we got some movers now with taylor riggs. taylor: you were talking about energy and some of the supply chain disruptions in the suez canal. union pacific was up much more in remarket trading. railroad traffic in north america is up 9.5%. we are getting back to normal with railroad traffic. take a look at nike. this is not a fundamental story

yet, but we are watching to see if this becomes one. the communist youth league has dug up comments from nike, h&m, and others saying these companies in which china uses forced labor. they are seeing a drop in sales and supply chain disruption. finally, we have to take a look at rite aid. now that we all wash our hands and don't sneeze on each other, there's no cold and there is no flu. jonathan: amazing. taylor: they have revised it downward their forecast because cold and flu product sales are down 37%. it is amazing what happens when you wash your hands, people. jonathan: haven't you heard that anecdotally as well, just talking to your friends? i haven't got sick this year. i wonder what they had been doing previously. taylor: using their fingers and eating chicken wings. it's disgusting. jonathan: i'll take a pass. [laughter] taylor: let's get to big tech.

this is the story of this afternoon, these tech hearings, arguably just until the closing bell. facebook says revealed to 30, change it -- says repeal 230, change it. google says don't get rid of 230. twitter says will get back to you. jonathan: want to talk about this market quickly. crude rolling over. wti down by about 2.2%, off by a little more than the dollar. david lebovitz, jp morgan global asset strategist. we talk about the bond market being the driver. what is your take right now? david: i think part of this is that investors are using energy as a way of playing a more cyclical thesis on the economy coming back online. if you think about the narrative that was in play earlier this year, it was very much about an accelerating economic story over

the course of 2021, reopening during the final half of the year, and i think a lot of people anticipated that that would coincide with stronger demand for petroleum and petroleum products. i think you are now beginning to see that called into question, partially due to what you alluded to earlier. things in europe are not looking all that great from a reopening perspective. it does look like they are going to be lagging the united states by at least a couple of months, so part of this story is that you are seeing that rebounded activity, that idea that the global economy comes back online in a synchronized way during the second half of this year, really start to get called into question. jonathan: how do you want to position for that as that story breaks down more? david: i don't think you necessarily want to change your positioning all that much. we have been big believers in taking a more value and cyclical approach to equity markets. what is going to make the most since this year, i think this still generally applies. the rest of the world tends to

be more value-oriented than the u.s., so the conversation we are having today is really about do we want to own u.s. banks or european banks. we would be leaning in favor of things like u.s. banks, where we think the overall story is a bit more supportive. so not making drastic changes, but trying to be more nuanced and how we express those views. lisa: what about japanese banks? i ask this for jon ferro. david: the question there, is there going to be a change in regulation? i don't think there is going to be a drastic change in the interest rates story, a drastic change in the demographic narrative. so i thing it all comes back to yield curves, when we think about financials. a lot of it ties back to the yield curve. i think that the u.s. is really continuing to be the place to be. lisa: i sound like a broken record over the past couple of days, but i wonder how much the story that keeps getting played

across all financial media about retail investors taking a step back from markets, has that really been what is underpinning some of the underperformance of cyclical stocks? in particular, some of the highest flying cyclicals within the russell 2000 small caps. what is your view on that? david: i think you have definitely seen the retail investor take a step back. the bigger question is how exactly do you measure the presence of the retail investor. one of the things we have observed in some of the data is that options activity has slowed quite notably. it seems that any retail activity is now coming through the cash equity in the etf channel. i think there's obviously an element of this pullback that is a function of the retail investor, but it is important to take a step back and think about what has transpired over the past couple of months, and will of the retail investor be more present in markets going forward. i think the answer to that is unequivocally yes.

so while we are seeing volatility here as the next round of stimulus checks hit, relying less on derivatives and more on cash equities, i still think there's a broader story about 2021 and beyond where the retail investor is back in a way that was not the case following the financial crisis. that likely contributes to a backdrop of elevated volatility, which can create outside opportunities for more active managers. jonathan: what kind of opportunities? david: one of the things we focus on when trying to evaluate the landscape for active nesters -- for active investors really has to do with dispersion. although spread dispersion is relatively tight, and that would lead us to prefer more of a relative value approach within fixed income markets, where we are seeing equity dispersion is really in the middle to high-end of the historical range. i think the bottom line is that you can roll up your sleeves and get your hands dirty within

sectors. it is not just about tech versus financials, but about the type of tech companies you are owning come of the type of financial institutions. that is an environment which is very different from where we have been over the course of the past 10 years more broadly. lisa: do you see higher volume trading opportunities to be perhaps more lucrative than this type of environment? in the past, you could buy and hold for longer if it was a beta trade, but if you have these idiosyncratic opportunities, you can actually trade more frequently and do well. david: i do think there is an element of this, where more active trading can definitely be a tailwind for performance. i think more broadly, and i am kind of going to go back to where we started this conversation, everyone is figuring out what the first half of the year is going to look like -- or, they are still trying to figure out what the second half is going to look like. given these uncertainties that

continue to persist, a more active approach to asset allocation, a more active approach to equities relying on those higher volumes i think is a good way to approach investing, particularly in the back half of this year. jonathan: just to gauge your thinking, in the back half of the year, do you think you will still be at home remote on zoom, whatever it is right now? david: i think by the fourth quarter, we will be back to some sort of normalcy. i am not sure that i am going to be jumping on an airplane every week to go see clients, but i sure do hope that you and lisa and i are sitting around in person having this conversation, and i think it is a reasonable assumption. there is plenty of supply in vaccines. the question is distribution, and things seem to be going well thus far. jonathan: i hope so too. good to catch up. we look at crude rollover by about 2%. wti lower. it is interesting the degree to

which crude has driven things over the last several months, how it is driven and shaped inflation expectations, perhaps to some extent pushed yields higher as well. just take that story and extrapolated out several years for inflation expect patients. i find it kind of odd. lisa: there are some other signs that oil represents a bigger feeling, a bigger shift in markets, that perhaps the optimism has been overplayed. i want to point to the oil inventories that came out yesterday in the data out of the united states, which showed a build in inventories despite some of the disruptions and supplies and the cold weather in the south. the idea is that people aren't moving around quite as much as people expected earlier in the year, that we are still in the pandemic, especially paired with what is going on in europe. perhaps that is the issue getting people a little more pessimistic. jonathan: wti with a $59 handle this morning. i promise to be serious about the ship stuck in the canal. i do think it is an important conversation. i promise i am going to stay

serious through the whole thing. i think it is an important conversation. i promise. lisa: it is, but to your point, everyone knows it is not going to be stuck forever. i don't think i have an 81 say that. however, -- jonathan: give it another week. lisa: ok, then they will start saying that we will always have a ship blocking the suez canal. but the idea of representing the disruptions in the supply chains is a bigger issue, and frankly has weighed on economic growth. i think that is the issue that people are keying into. jonathan: i give it 48 hours before you start texting me over the weekend about the potential of the suez canal never opening up again. i give you 48 hours. lisa: ok, you find that article. jonathan: you are going to write it. [laughter] lisa: i am not going to write that. jonathan: we will get smart on this issue next. from new york city this morning,

good morning. yields unchanged on tens, 1.6015%. in the equity market, reroll over -- equity market, we rollover by 0.25%. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. fed chairman jerome powell says when the economy has all but fully recovered, the central bank will be pulling back support. in an interview with npr today, powell said the fed's actions during the crisis prevented worst damage. still, he said congress should get the bulk of the credit. president biden will hold his first formal news conference at the white house today. he is certain to face questions about two recent mass killings, the coronavirus, and a surge in migrant children at the southern

border. meanwhile, the biden adminstration will spend almost $10 billion towards increasing coronavirus taxing access for communities that a been hit the hardest. the money will largely come from the release package -- the release package passed earlier this month and target black and hispanic communities where people are more likely to fall ill from the virus. a legendary dutch salvage firm has taken of the task of trying to free that giant container ship walking the suez canal. the ship ran aground on tuesday and is causing a massive traffic jam just outside the waterway that connects the red sea to the mediterranean. about 180 ships are waiting to transit the canal. samsung is preparing to release the next generation of memory chips to keep up with the growth of data centers and artificial intelligence demands. the world's biggest memory chipmaker promised to double speeds and offer the biggest capacity yet. the chips will come out later this year.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> we are already seeing evidence that ships are starting

to gather at the edge of the canal, so that logjam has started to grow as every hour passes. so it is a really serious instance, and it shows you how fragile global supply chains can be at times. jonathan: that was the secretary general of the international chamber of shipping on the ship stuck in the suez canal. good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the thursday morning price action. the s&p down by nine points, off by 0.2%. into the bond market we go, where 10 year yields are stable and unchanged at 1.6068% on tens , and euro-dollar unchanged, too. an eu council meeting taking place. eu leaders talking about the vaccine. and then of course, a news conference with president biden, the first time we have been able to say that since inauguration. looking forward to that.

the top story worldwide has to be the ship stuck in the suez canal. let me go through some of the numbers for you because the numbers are important. $9.6 billion worth of traffic a day going through that very important waterway. that is according to estimates from the likes of lloyd's. the estimates of the ships waiting to get through their varies. at bloomberg we are tracking about 185 vessels as of yesterday. lloyd's is estimating about wonder 65. what -- about one hunter tix to five. book -- about 165. what we need to figure out is how bad things could get quickly. with us now is alan keltner. this really gained traction, so it is important when things like this start to get blocked up. my question is when things get critical. is it days, weeks? critical for who, and where? guest: it is a really good

question, becoming a bit more relevant with the ship that is blocked. the impact from all of the vessel tracking we do is really around bulk and container shipping. it is all of those things that moves on containers, which is basically across the whole global economy. we see less of an impact on oil products and lng, but the impact on those gets bigger if we are still in the situation in a few days. jonathan: the reason i go to these questions because i think it is too easy to put up the pretty pictures and say look at the digger trying to get this ship, for international traders looking at this situation, they want to understand how important it really is and when things get critical. when you see that, i am trying to understand what is on the

ships, what can be rerouted, and in the oil business, are there pipelines around there that you can use? how many alternatives are there to try to tackle some of these issues if this is around for another week or so? alan: with oil, there is a -- there is a suez pipeline. there's plenty of crude, plenty of products, because lockdowns are being extended. so we don't see an issue in middle east crude making its way to europe. we don't see much diversion. there's potentially issues going the other way. it might be petrochemical feedstocks because they tend to flow through the suez canal to asia. you've also got some russian crude that comes out of the black sea, and that often goes through the suez canal.

we are seeing some of those differentials moving, but it is relatively small. the oil market isn't a big deal. lng, if it lasts a bit longer, it becomes a bit of a problem. but in terms of the lng market, this is the season where demand is relatively low. if the canal is blocked, some people are going to have to make a decision. do they go all the way around cape horn? that adds nine days, in which case the shipping market gets tighter, and that will ultimately get reflected in pricing. we think the market is sitting and waiting, and fingers crossed on the news that the whale should be cleared monday or tuesday of next week. that is some of the news that has been going on, but we will see. lisa: jon was talking about people wanting to talk about that digger next to the ship, and frankly, i am among them.

and the conversations in the cockpit of this massive ship. the bigger issue is the exhaustion. after people bought more goods to enable them to hunker down during the pandemic, at a time when there were more people out of work, can you talk about the larger story about stress points at some of these shipping centers? the idea that people are exhausted, stranded at sea for days or months. does that concern you and a longer-lasting way on the oil market and the comical's market? -- and the chimicles market? -- and the chemicals market? alan: i think it is one of those things that has largely gone hidden. mariners have been at sea for 18 months with no way of

getting home. but if you look at it, we've got supply systems and supply chains that are under quite a degree of stress. if systems are under stress, mistakes and abstinence happen -- and accidents happen. it is something that i think the shipping industry is very aware of and is trying to resolve. jonathan: i'd love to catch up again about this because if this does continue, as you know, it can take about a month to get a container ship from china to the u.k., from india over to europe as well. i think at some point, you have to start singing about what that route is going to look like in the months to come for some of these big journeys with these massive ships. it is great to catch up. we appreciate your time, as always. alan ge -- alan geldner there. a week is when things start to get more critical for very specific issues.

lisa: that's true. i do wonder how exhaustion plays into this. the human aspect of being stranded at sea for months at a time and unable to land. did you read all of those stories earlier last year about how a lot of these mariners were unable to dock anywhere because nobody wanted to get exposed to the covid virus, and they didn't want to have to test them? they were stranded and left there. there are questions about human fallibility in light of all of this stress, and how that is playing into some of the delays we have been seeing, and what that means going forward before we end this pandemic. jonathan: maybe they should be asked to give a talk at one of those elite wall street banks, some of those tough mariners that have had a really tough time over the last year, and they can compare paychecks and talk about what life is like, and how difficult it is to be away from family all the time. lisa: how are you doing today, jon? everything ok? jonathan: just liking the possibility of that conversation, maybe. do you think anyone on the ship

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