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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  March 25, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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helps control stress and emotional eating and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's golo.com. ♪ >> we are reemerging from a recessionary environment. this is different from the others. >> while the markets could look frothy, there could be room to normalize rates. >> we wanted a steep curve and we are getting that. >> everything we are hearing from the fed is very not moving. >> they always keep on emphasizing, it has to be persistent. we are nowhere near that point. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance."
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jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." equities are rolling over. wti down 3%. lisa: after yesterday's pop with the suez canal being blocked, people are going back to the narrative of slowing because of covid numbers and recovered. jonathan: a lot of people were looking to energy as a barometer , an indicator of the global growth story, the cyclical improvement. it has faded more recently. lisa: it has. at the same time, there is a sense -- with respect to crude,
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the idea that will are less mobile than they had been earlier in the year. as the virus numbers plateau or go higher, people are not going around much and spending money on services. how long this lasts is a big russian. -- is a big question. how much is boiled a real barometer and how much is it an unequal corollary? jonathan: your price action in the equity market down 17 on the s&p, up on the nasdaq. softer on the euro, euro-dollar-1.18. all the way up from 175 down to a clean break of 160 on the u.s. 10 year. crude, down about 2.86%. a real turnaround in the bond market. we can't up recently with -- who
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talked about these intraday ranges. over the last week, it is interesting to see what the range has been. all the way up to 175, a clean rate at 160. what is interesting is high yields -- now we are talking about the cyclical trade breaking down. we are taking a pause and now it is russell down, small caps, too. lisa: how much is this due to a technical story? the idea that foreign investors are starting to see the u.s. as a good foreign-exchange hedge bet? we are seeing japanese investors come back in a significant way. there is a question about the more conservative names in the equity market. jonathan: sheena shop, support
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global investors she strategist. do you think it is taking a pause? sheena: i think it is. the number one question i have received is cyclical trade getting too frumpy? when do we know it is time to shift? i think one of the reasons is the market is one-sided. it is very optimistic about gdp growth and reopening and the vaccines. a lot of people are concerned about inflation rather than covid. covid has not gone away. this is a good reminder that the underlying story is stimulus and eventual reopening. jonathan: what i found fascinating is the lack of the federation -- lack of differentiation. the vaccine rollout has been anything but synchronized globally and the outlook for growth has been anything but
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synchronized when it comes to upgrade expectations. yet we have seen u.s. banks up and yields higher. we have seen european banks rally, too, even though we are told the growth is inconsistent. with cem equities do well, even with chinese growth and growth maturing. you think the breakdown in the cyclical trade needed to consolidate before we could look at differentiation between regions as we start to build out this year? sheena: absolutely. the question is which one will be the winner. not everyone is going to be doing well. the vaccine rollout will probably be the game changer picking out who could be good and who could be bad. i was listening earlier about europe. it will accelerate, the vaccine rollout. but they are falling further behind. by autumn they need to get their
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house in order. that is when we are expecting another wave. from a macro perspective, europe in the second half of the year, i wonder if it will be able to catch up with the u.s.. lisa: how much are you actively changing your candidates in terms of -- your guidance in terms of what you think people should be investing in? sheena: we have reduced our allocation to emerging markets, concerned about the dollar. we are expecting generally a weaker dollar story. we have seen that narrative change along the line as we have seen the stimulus package introduced. we reduced allocation to europe at the end of last year. and maybe reconsidering some of the small-cap moves. we think it needs to take a time of retention. lisa: what are you looking at to
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decide if there will be more retrenchment in the russell? is it the idea of the retail investor not being as present? is it the idea that growth won't accelerate as quickly? what are the signposts? sheena: i don't think it as -- it is as straightforward as it has been. retail investors are clearly important. there has been market complacency around the cyclical trade. the consent starts to trickle in. i think that is what we have seen. it will probably be a few more weeks before we are confident getting back in cyclical areas. jonathan: are you looking at u.s. or on a global basis or the regional story? sheena: there was so much consensus view coming in about which ones would do well, about the value trade. when you have a consensus move,
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there will be a moment where things break down. i think that is where we are. we want to look at the long-term investment, we want to look at fundamentals. the fundamental story is still strong for the u.s. you need to start having a closer look at the region you are investing in. jonathan: i have been asking the impossible question. lisa and i have been talking about it, whether growth expectations are peaking. we have had guests that have said not yet. i've seen a data point on retail foot traffic riding 50% from a year earlier. we will see this more in the month ahead. the base effects will kick in. even though this is predictable, the conversation we have had is how surprised some people will be about the numbers we have
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seen in the next two months. lisa: july 4 is the key moment. can you weigh in on where you think the expectations are in equity icing? do you think people have baked in all of that optimism and that base effect? or do you think equity traders be surprised by how good it is? sheena: i think there is some prize -- some surprised to come. two or three months ago there was the view that cruise lines would get back up. what we are hearing is that people are desperate to do the stuff they were not able to do. i think there could be some surprises. jonathan: just look at the flights domestically in december to get a view of where things are going. sheena shop there -- sheena shaw there. lisa, we have been discussing what would happen with carbon.
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a guest came into weigh in this morning. we have questions about the magnitude of the economic rebound in late q2 and early q3 in europe. that is where things get interesting. most people would call q1 a write-off for europe. q2 and q3 is when things get more compelling. the vaccine story -- if the vaccine story starts to pick up, do you see a better picture out of the continent? lisa: there is also a question of what kind of fiscal support there will be in the european region. and the leadership behind playing that effectively. the longer this takes, the more action increases from a scientific perspective. i am no scientist, you know that. the longer this drags out -- drags out, there is more a
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variant could form. how quickly and how robust could the economic growth be when it comes back? jonathan: europe is constrained by its own rules. it can't do what the u.k. has done and what the u.s. has done on a fiscal front. that is difficulty i think people have with the european outlook. what could they ever do about the democratic issues and the trend growth issues they have had? what can the ecb do come also? -- do, also? coming up, we will have a conversation about tax hikes. jonathan traub will be joining us in a moment. equity markets down one third of 1%, 11 or 12 points. crude with a 59 handle and down about 2.78%. yields come in, to bank -- a break of 150 -- 160. it did not need the words of
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chairman powell to break down again. he has stuck to script. yields have done it on their own. yields in on a 10 year, equities a little softer. good morning. seen on bloomberg tv and heard on bloomberg radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: bernie sanders proposing acre tax increases. the senate budget committee chairman said he will introduce legislation to raise the corporate tax rate to 35%. that is what it was before donald trump's tax cuts. he is pushing for a tax on wealthy americans. chairman powell says when the economy has recovered, the central bank will be pulling back its support. he suggests the fed during the crisis prevented worst damage
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but congress should get the credit. it is the first real test on north korea for writing, firing two missiles, a violation of you in regulations. they landed in between -- landed in waters between japan and south korea. a crew will try to free the container ship blocking the suez canal. these stakes could not be higher for what is considered the world's most important waterway. it connects the red sea to the mediterranean. they are carrying $10 billion worth of oil and goods. -- is wrapping up a funding round that values it at $15 billion. they called off a five $3 billion sale -- $5.3 billion sale.
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global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we need to have a way to pay for this that is sustainable. we know that it is a no starter
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for many people. a huge part of business income tax is not reported. jonathan: the democrat from virginia talking to this program earlier this week. good morning, alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. we look like this on the sn 500, we dipped lower by 14 points. this mild ash on the s&p 500, we -- on the s&p 500, we dipped lower by 14 points. lisa, into the bond market, 160.15. that conversation in d.c. on how to a for this is the question that comes up with -- they do what they always wanted to do
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regardless if we pay for it or not. lisa: they have to do it when we have record options. the notes will be indicative of the dynamic. how much does the increase of supply and up disrupting the borrowing cost we have enjoyed? how much does that factor into the narrative? jonathan: let's have everyone's least favorite conversation about taxes. we can do that now with jonathan traub of deloitte. is there any evidence that the corporate tax cut actually led to higher r&d spend? we are trying to understand if a corporate tax height will lead to lower r&d spend in america. jonathan traub: it is a hard question because there are so many is going on at the same time. there are changes in international rules and domestic rules.
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we see companies increase spending on capex and already -- and our entity -- and r&d. lisa: you think there is any evidence that shows a slowdown in capital investment if taxes are raised back to what they were pre-trump? jonathan traub: i think companies will make the argument aggressively and it is up to economist to decide what they believe. there are low rates in wages and employment, etc. lisa: going forward, let's talk about proposals president biden has put out there. there is a question about the irs cracking down more aggressively on people evading taxes. how much of additional revenue you think the u.s. government could get if they more aggressively pursued the actual
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tax rate that is supposedly leveled at individuals? jonathan traub: there's always a balance of how much you want to spend and how much you want to intrude in people's behaviors and how much revenue you want to collect. there is a limit to how much the american people and politicians are willing to invest in that assess -- in that process and invade people's privacy. lisa: it is a balance, can you give us a sense of how much money is left on the table? i know janet yellen was saying this is one of the most viable ways to raise revenue, to go after the people who might be getting out of their taxes. do you view this as a significant source of revenue the u.s. is missing out on? jonathan traub: there is a lot of revenue there but it is hard to get. we have seen people evading the
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irs and they try to crack down the tax cap by increasing on reporting. there is a limit of what you can do. people complain about irs overreach. there is a ton of money but getting it is hard. jonathan: i member someone would come on this program and say they will make it simple to fill out tax reforms -- tax returns. why is it so hard in america? jonathan traub: there is a lot that the government was to do whether it is investing in new energy or -- all of these things create deductions. we went to tell people if this is how much you're making this much income, take out this much
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in taxes and there are no deductions, it is easy. but if you want to reward behavior and distinct from bad behavior -- jonathan: how do you track wealth in america? how do you tax wealth? jonathan traub: the thing about 12 tax -- how do you appraise and value everyone's holdings? not just people who are very wealthy, but as a whole. i think there is a question about how you could do a wealth tax not in an authoritarian way. jonathan: good to catch up with you. deloitte tax policy leader, jonathan traub. it is a really complex debate
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taking place in america about how to best tax people in a society -- people in society. they have to address this stuff later this year. lisa: i love what he said. the non-fungible token, i just started thinking about that. a jack dorsey twitter post from years ago ends up selling for millions of dollars, what does that mean? how do you value anything right now as an asset and how does the government tax that? it is raising questions when we have digital assets. jonathan: i agree. lisa: they are exploding in value. jonathan: mike mckee will drop by later and we will talk about this. there are a series of instructions to bring things back home in this administration.
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there will be a serious conversation about how your objective lines up with that. if you want people to spend -- corporations to spend more at home, more on r&d, you have to understand what you are doing elsewhere and how difficult it is to reconcile the issues. issues for the chinese communist party, issues investing in america, the issues making sure everyone pays their fair share. what is fair? and the issue around corporate tax hike, too. lisa: you asked him why it is so complicated and he said life is complicated. for corporations, will tax hikes disincentivize investments? to make semiconductors and chips for the lust of the world -- but does that have to do with good business? jonathan: why do you have to guess for the irs what you think
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you owe for the irs and then the irs tells you know you are wrong? why do you have to guess in this country? should not they be able to just tell you? especially if all you have done is earn a salary. why should you have to do a tax return? this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." live on tv and radio alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us on monday. here's the price action into the economic data. s&p 500 down .4%. the nasdaq south too. a mild move in the context of the bigger move. wti down, all 3%. -- off 3%. 10 year yields at one point -- 1.6033. michael: this will get people's attention. 684,000 jobless claims last week. that is the lowest in 52 weeks. the first time we've been below
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700,000 in 52 weeks. it was a year ago this week, not last week, that we saw a peak in jobless claims. this is good news for the markets. the forecast was for 730,000. the prior week initial estimate was 770,000. continuing claims fall to 3,870,000. a decrease this week of about 97,000 from the previous week. the revised claim last week, let me see. do not have that. 781,000. it was revised up for last week. this could be revised up again, but you have seven days to trade on a much better than anticipated number in terms of jobless claims. the number of pandemic claims this week, or a week ago, because that was delayed a week,
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241,000 745. that is a decline of 42,500. all in all, good news on the jobless claims front. 684,000 is still higher than the highest we had previously during the great recession, but it is a significant change, a significant move lower, break the psychological level. jobless claims not the only number out. gdp for the fourth quarter stronger than anticipated, in at 4.3%. it was 4.1% when the second estimate was put out. personal consumption at 2.3%. that is lower. we probably got more in terms of inventories. i do not have the complete breakdown yet. just coming out. let's see. business spending, nonresidential fixed spending falls to 13.1% instead of the
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14% last month. that tells you we are probably looking at inventories much higher and maybe trade making a difference. i do not have that in front of me. lisa: you said something important i want to pick up on, the idea that the market should respond to these much better numbers. good news across the board about the economy. the market is not responding much. if you're taking a look at yields, they are going up a little bit that they are flat on the trading day at best. meanwhile the russell 2000 is still down almost 1%. retraced a little bit of the losses, but not a significant move. give us a sense of how much people can rely on the data or whether it is increasingly dismissed as noisy and backward looking? michael: the claims numbers have a lot of problems. there's been a lot of rot and double county -- double counting. poor counting by states with antiquated systems.
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the magnitude of the change is large enough you have to give it some credibility in terms of what it means for the economy. the story has been things are improving and they will improve more rapidly. this is a gratifying number. you do not have to care about the actual number. the idea are going in the right direction is ratifying. when i say the markets might react, and the first five minutes maybe not, but over the course of the day you might see more optimism. people betting on a stronger economy are going to be proven right. jonathan: the next couple of months will be interesting. let's continue the conversation. nathan sheets, pgim fixed income chief economist. let's start here. a conversation we touched on about 10 minutes ago. the previous administration, when they talk about taxes, they were not talking about the wealthy, although some people in d.c. wish they had have done.
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they were talking about supply-side issues. investment in america. you think we need to have that conversation again? nathan: i think what we need to do is be aware of the supply-side. i think the case to consider tax increases is compelling. there is also a case for various regulatory interventions. as we do that we also need to think about how business is going to respond. the implications of that for the business environment. i very much hear a demand-side perspective in the economy articulated frequently and demand is critical. in order for demand to be met, we also need the supply-side to be strong. balancing those considerations
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is critical. i think it would be helpful in our debates to have more of that kind of supply-side perspective. at the end of the day, corporations are not the enemy. they have to be part of the solution if we want to have the job creation and the growth we all desire. jonathan: unfortunately that is not been part of the conversation on one side of the political aisle for a long time and arguably that started with former president barack obama when he turned to the business community and said you did not build this. let's talk about that a little bit more. i want to talk about what you saw as an outcome of the corporate tax cut from several years back and i wonder if it is as simple as reverse engineering that in saying this is what will happen if you hike it. can you help me understand that situation better? nathan: the corporate tax cut was a powerful experiment that was cut short.
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through 2018 we were may be starting to see a few hints of strengthening in investment and may be increases in corporate sentiment. then president trump with the trade war and just squashed those early gains. we never found out. in the event we did not get the investment they were arguing, but it is not clear if they had had a different policy more broadly, whether we might have seen that. i think it was a huge missed opportunity where president trump implemented half a policy and effectively killed it with the trade war's. lisa: can you elaborate a little bit more? at first blush it is counterintuitive for the trade war to lead to less development at home. you would think it would lead to more.
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that was the goal given the fact it would be more expensive to do business overseas. why did this have the opposite effect? nathan: i think you sought on a daily basis in the equity market. it was a source of uncertainty and many firms in the u.s. economy, the reality is, are dependent on imported goods, especially the firms that are likely to lead the way in investment. when they do not know what they will have to pay for the products they use, it is very difficult for them to make business decisions, and they certainly do not want to talk about expanding this a look production -- expanding the scale of production in that environment. it is a systemic source of uncertainty that particularly hits in put prices hard. the bottom line is the trade
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war, i am sure, had some adverse effects on the chinese economy, but it also had adverse effects on the u.s. economy. lisa: going forward, there is a question about the cost of rejiggering supply chains. that has to do with trade policy, but in general. some of the fragility that has been exposed in shipping and packaging in the wake of the pandemic. how will that factor into economic growth given the fact it will be retracing some of the growth in globalization? nathan: i think one of the messages of the last five years, both the trade war and the pandemic, is many firms have included the world is a very risky place. it behooves them to have more
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diversified supply chains. some of that might mean bringing it home, but some of that may mean diversifying it out of china. in addition, they need supply chains that are going to be more robust to a range of shocks. that is likely to mean higher inventory levels for firms going forward. the implication of that is inventories have been so small in recent years with this just-in-time inventory management, inventories are likely to be larger than they have been and they are likely to become, like in the 1970's and 1980's, maybe not to that extent, but similar more of a driver of business cycle dynamics then we have seen in recent years. jonathan: that is fascinating. i had the conversation with pepsico a couple of months back at that will be compelling to
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watch. nathan sheets, pgim fixed income chief economist and head of global macro economic research. s&p down, off .4%. a little bit later a conversation lisa, you might be interested in. one of the sharpest minds in credit and fixed income, mark geisel -- mark keisel joining us later on bloomberg tv. lisa: i am fascinated to hear what he thinks of the risk taking appetite. the drive and credit continues to be strong. huge underperformance in safe assets. the question is has that trade gone too far in the same way some people are saying to pull back a little bit from the russell 2000 for some of the more speculative areas of the equity market. jonathan: interesting to get an update from mark kiesel later
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given morgan stanley's move over last month or so, to downgrade small caps. from new york city, alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the attention of the world very much on a news conference with president biden later, the first time we've gone to say that you're at a news conference with president biden -- we have gotten to say that. a news conference with president biden. this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden will hold his first formal news conference at the white house today. he is certain to face questions about two recent math fillings, the coronavirus, and a surge in migrant children at the southern border. critics have accused the president of not being transparent and waiting more than two months to hold his first news conference. meanwhile the bided administration will spend almost $10 billion for increasing coronavirus vaccine access for communities hit the hardest. the money will largely come from
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relief package earlier this month. it will target disadvantage part of the countries including black and hispanic communities. a legendary dutch salvage firm has taken up the task of trying to free the giant container ship blocking the suez canal. the ship ran aground on tuesday and is causing a massive traffic jam just outside the waterway that connects the red sea to the mediterranean. about 180 ships are waiting to transit the canal. samsung is preparing to release a next-generation memory chip to keep up with the growth and artificial intelligence demand. the world's biggest memory chip maker promises double speeds and the biggest capacity yet. the chip will come out later this year. swedish retail h&m are among the western bands facing boycotts in china. they have a choice. agreed to use cotton from the shingle province and come under attack from the west or -- they
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have turned down cotton because of concern forced labor is used there. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> there is reasonable ground for optimism that june, july,
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august we will see recovery of short-haul travel in europe. you will not see long haul recover in the summer. a lot of people who would have holiday in the states or agent will holiday in europe and we think ryanair will be the beneficiary. lisa: counting on being the beneficiary. that is michael o'leary, the head of ryanair speaking on bloomberg television counting on a brighter future ahead despite the ongoing lockdowns in the european region. the question is how do we get international travel back? how do we get international travel at a time when there is such different roaches to the vaccine rollout. this is the subject of the cover of bloomberg businessweek. vaccine passports have been one of the main issues people have been talking about as a way to return to a global world, physically as well as electronically. john stickler joining us now with experience at a host of
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different airlines tracking their patterns, analyzing their business plans. i want to start with this idea of vaccine passports. is that the answer you see to returning to some sort of global travel? john: it is certainly a big part of the answer your the rollout of vaccine programs is critical in terms of reducing the impact of this virus and reducing the seriousness of illness. we cannot take a zero risk approach. we have to get back to a closer level of normality as possible. what the airline industry is saying is we need to have testing, which is partially in place. we need to have an easy way customers can be confident to travel and where documentation is needed, whether that be for having vaccinations or where you can get covid testing is easily available. already we are hearing stories about fraudulent documents and
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tests around the world. to put this electronically into an app on somebody's mobile phone is not good for customer confidence but much better for ease of processing by airlines in the travel process. lisa: there is a question to vaccine passports even matter if you have lockdowns and people are not allowed to go on holiday? how much do you expect the european airline industry to revive this year? much can people travel? john: here in europe, and we heard what michael o'leary said -- normally we would get a demand spike and a favorable sense -- ryanair themselves have talked about ramping up maybe to 80% of their normal activity, but not until july. we have a couple of good months last year, and then all of the shutdowns came again from
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september. i think it will be better because we are going to have more people vaccinated, we will have more people vaccinated around technology. i think it will be a bumpy road. airlines will not get actively capacity. we will get a case of one step forward, two steps back. there is pent-up demand. anytime there's a chance to travel, airline see a massive jump in searches. a big jump in bookings. it will be a fragile summer. lisa: there is a question about holidays and vacations and a question about business travel. we have been talking about it throughout the week. how much do expect business travel to return? will we ever get back to the 2019 peak? john: i am very skeptical. i can think back 20 years after the 9/11 attacks. is this travel melted away then and i was of the school of thought that we will never see recovery. we did progressively over the years.
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business cabins became full as airline profit margins rose. this time i believe it is different. nobody can say exactly what level of business traffic will fail to come back, but i think most people have in mind's a big chunk, let's say double-digit, 15% to 20% will not come back because we are all using these videoconference techniques. they are widespread and reliable. many people will be delighted not have to travel as much. accountants want to save budgets. the element we should not underestimate from the impact of these business travelers is the green agenda. many companies around the world want to show their green credentials. but -- what better way than to say we are not flying our executives as much? it'll will be a hit to those airlines to rely on long-haul business travel. lisa: can you talk about which
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airlines get hit hardest if we see a persistent 15% to 20% decline in business travel? john: many airlines would say like 20% to 30% of their total passengers in business. revenue they could generate would be well over 50%. the margins on those business class tickets can be multiples of four to six times higher than new york. london to new york you can get a $200 return ticket. in a bargain-basement economy you can buy a flexible business class ticket for well over $10,000. that gives you the idea of the margins and whether the cabins are going full on the flights every day in the last several decades. it is an and norma's head. airlines exposed to that markets -- it is an enormous hit. airlines exposed to that market, they will be looking closely at business models, how much will
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they have to change sizes of cabins, will they have to look at other ways to entice people? will they look at downgrading? a lot of work in the premium economy. at the end of the day, if those revenues are that much lower, there becomes a question of the cost structure of businesses. we saw british airways doing a lot of ramped of work on cost-cutting. i think british airways looked at tough labor negotiations, but the reality is they were pretty foresighted, they had to do it. they know this is not a temporary flash in the pan problem. this is a longer structural change. if they do not adapt, these businesses are out of viability for the future. lisa: john strickland, thank you so much for your time. fascinating to think how much revenue these airlines derive from their business travel and
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what this might mean if there is a 15% to 20% decline. an interesting point about green energy and how it cuts costs as well as contributes to that cause for a lot of these companies to say they are going to fly around less with their executives. we heard that from david rubenstein yesterday on the show. markets, we have a bit of a pop, actually reversed. the nasdaq down 80 points. we see the s&p futures down 18 points, 3862. this despite the fact we got better than expected data out of the labor market. michael mckee saying we would expect given the fact that we are seeing a decline down to lowe's not seen since march 20, 2020, we should see a pop, and we are not. 10 year yields down 1.59%. the conundrum of how we get the economy back up and running and whether all of the good data is backward looking and not necessarily indicative of
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whether the optimism currently in markets can be confirmed i reality. coming up on "balance of power," jared bernstein talking taxes and infrastructure spending. this is bloomberg. ♪
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down. from york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the opening bell starts now. equity futures down 17 points. we decline .4%. markets laser focused on one thing. >> the biden administration. >> build back better. >> tax raising measures. >> a huge amount of spending about to take place. >> 8% to 12% nominal gdp growth this year. >> very strong growth numbers. >> the numbers will knock your socks off >> >>. the u.s. economy -- >> a u.s. economy that has seen a lot of fiscal stimulus. >> because this economy is coming back online. >> trillions and trillions of dollars. >> we have not begun the process of reopening. jonathan: we have hardly got started. let's brin

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