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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  March 26, 2021 2:00am-3:00am EDT

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>> good morning. it is 6:00 a.m. in the city of london. this is daybreak europe and here is what you need to know. the european union first, and then experts. -- exports. germany will declare france a high-risk virus area. biden doubles down on doses,
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targeting 200 million doses in his first hundred days. and that giant container ship remains firmly stuck for a fourth day. it is friday, we have made it to the end of the week. let's take a look at where we trade. we are seeing a risk on rally. asia-pacific, up 1.5% along with u.s. and european equity futures. biden doubling down, 200 million doses in the first one hundred days. u.s. jobless claims dropped more than expected. let's take a look at what is going on across assets. trading at 1.62%. wheaties >> -- we did see some stabilization. the auction was not a disaster but not terribly good either. it is a question of whether or not the bond rout, is the worst of that selloff finally over?
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that should maintain stock -- the ship is stuck in the suez canal. it is going to be days or weeks for that to become unlocked? euro-dollar, breaking down low 118. the same stories plague europe, the vaccines and virus counts. it emerged the block has shipped more shots to the rest of the world than it has given to its own citizens. astrazeneca must meet its commitment according to the commission president. >> companies have to honor their contracts to the european union before they export to other regions in the world. this is of course the case with astrazeneca. i think it is clear for the company that first of all it has to catch up, it has to honor the
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contracted has with the european member states before it can engage again in exporting vaccines. annmarie: when asked from russell's is maria tadeo. they had cautious tones. at the end of the day, it is a vaccine export ban, isn't it? >> they do not want to call it a ban but essentially that is what could happen. there is a nuance. they have agreed to the export control system. will it be used every single time for every export? i would say no. angela merkel said we don't want to make this standard practice. the dutch prime minister saying everyone is aware this is a global supply chain and we do not want attention on that front. the other issue is it is not
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going to affect every pharma company in the same way. the impression we get pfizer, moderna, they are off the hook. this is very much about astrazeneca. you can see there is a tension between the european commission and astrazeneca, the company. the head of the company was clear they should not be exporting anything out of the european union. we should note astrazeneca has cut production to the eu three times in two quarters. there were a bunch of numbers presented by the head of the commission. what has been revealed, i want to run you through the numbers, the european production sites have provided a norma's muscle to the global supply chain. 77 million vaccines were exported outside of the european union. 21 million went to the united kingdom. that is almost two thirds of the supply coming from the european side.
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they were only able to administer 62 million vaccines. it is that gap creating the tension. the measures we are seeing are responding to that. annmarie: the only risk is the retaliatory measures. i'm sure the eu is thinking what those might be. joining us this friday morning, the chief investment strategist at northern trust management. i want to start with your speeches. you say european equities have outperformed global vaccine markets, imposing regional lockdowns. why is europe, you say, outperforming these negative trends? there are larger forces at play. walk us through the larger forces. >> you are absolutely right. we do think we need to look beyond the disruption and terms of vaccine rollout.
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look at the exposures you are buying into. european equities get more than 50% from global sources which means it is a global recovery led by the u.s. and fiscal stimulus. it is going to have a positive impact on european equity. in a recovery, it is a positive thing. as helpful as well. european interest rates are more contained, we have seen a bigger rise in the u.s.. we also see sensitivity which is less of a factor here as well. finally, europe has benefited from geopolitical boost from draghi taking over as prime minister. as well as the more moderate side of the political spectrum and germany taking over. angela merkel stepping down.
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those are the four factors driving our preference for europe at the moment. annmarie: one question i have, we are seeing renewed covid cases. france is having to extend their lockdown. germany is going to potentially announce stricter border controls. at some point, does this threaten the outperformance of equities? >> we are optimistic that will be contained. we are not lying to the fact the vaccine rollout has been disappointing. we think it is displayed -- delayed but not disrupted. it should be a month or two when we still get going. we think that time is too short for markets to worry about the underlying outlook. you know there is a delay in gdp. it is not the end of the world, given the swings we have seen in
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gdp. that sort of relativity, 2-3 months from now, everybody is expecting a vaccine glut as opposed to a shortage. it is getting over that hump. hopefully the recovery will get going and europe as well. annmarie: you say distillate -- laid but not disrupted. for europe, what is the timeline? >> that is a little uncertain because of the issues we have seen. we have to be careful trying to be too specific. three months outcome all we are pretty confident the vaccine glut story will be here. from that point on, you should see a robust recovery. we are very confident the european recovery will get going just like the u.s. recovery is
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starting. the second quarter of this year. annmarie: chief investment strategist, staying with us. breaking news from santander. this has to do with their dividend. they are restoring their dividend policy, 40-50% underlying profits. 8.3% outstanding mexico state value, 550 million euros. another take, saying business has remained strong. we will have more and a little bit. went to get a recap of your other news. >> some think the blockage of the suez canal could take weeks. vessels are taking a costly detour around africa.
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work has been ongoing since tuesday to re-float along the trade route. china is slapping rotella tory sanctions on brits. earlier this week, the u.k. joins the u.s., canada, and the eu imposing sanctions in china over allegations of human rights abuses against the uighurs. twitter ceo jack dorsey says he takes some responsibility for online organizing that led to the capital riot. he made the comments during congressional testimony. the leaders of facebook and alphabet deflected with the google boss saying it is a complex question. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. this is bluebird. -- bloomberg. annmarie: 200 million shots in
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100 million days. annmarie: doubling down on vaccine doses in his first press conference. we bring you the highlights next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> by my 100th day in office, to have administered 200 million shots. my plan is to run for reelection. the overwhelming majority of people being sent back. our next major initiative is to rebuild infrastructure in this country. >> china is investing three times more in infrastructure than the u.s..
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we are not looking for confrontation, although we know there will be steep competition. two, we will have strong competition but we will insist china play by the international rules. annmarie: u.s. president joe biden in his first formal news conference as president. u.s. losses flat for the week. joining us to discuss this is dani burger. where do u.s. markets stand this morning? yesterday, there is a lot of talk about the seven year option. this morning, moving sideways? >> that auction was a bit on the weaker side. the reaction was nothing like when it was a bad option. we are in a weird place. this kind of dichotomy between covid cases are rising, but the economic outlook is good.
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that allowed's 10 you are yields to ease a bit. these more cyclical, small cap stocks is leading us this morning of 9-10%. these cyclical stocks have had a very bad week before yesterday. some commentators, traders said it is because of what is happening in europe. we finally have a day where people are looking at what is called the economic rejuvenation. allowing people to take the gas pedal off the dollar. it is falling, on track for the best weekly jump since november. >> annmarie: the fed giving a green light to the bank dividend. >> this is something that had to wait in banks. the fact that the pandemic meant limits for the fed. city, bank of america, all up
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more than 1%. the idea is if you pass the stress test, you can increase dividends if you do very well. then they are completely taken away. the fed saying the banking sector continues to be a source of strength for the u.s. and we are moving these limits -- removing these limits will make it stronger permits shareholders agreeing with that. annmarie: the chief investment strategist for emea is still with us. let's start where she left off. do you see banks moving after market trading. is this going to further fuel the rally we have seen this year and the u.s. financial sector? >> we think so. we have an underlying thesis, all about the laggards of the last couple of years, the value
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side of things and the cyclical side, starting to outperform compared to the growth, tech side. that is a powerful force. it is about interest rate sensitivity. for financials, it gives them more margin to work with. on the back of the recovery, it gives them something to work with in terms of volume, how much activity they can deploy. we think this has legs for the next 12-18 months. annmarie: i want to move into what we heard from president biden. he made a point to mention infrastructure. we are off the heels of 1.9 trillion dollars. we hear reports about another $3 trillion in infrastructure. what is the risk it is going to overheat the u.s. economy? >> a trillion here, a trillion
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there, and pretty soon you start to talk about real money. we are not too worried about overheating. we are looking for what we call transitory inflation but not self-sustaining. we will get enough because of the boom and terms of recovery we are going to see this year. it is going to be hard to sustain and 2022 and 2023 unless you see more of these programs being rolled out there with the infrastructure program could be one of these. how is he going to pay for it? how big will it be? will it actually be 2-3,000,000,000,000? how will he pay for it or will he increase taxes? that makes a huge difference in terms of the net impact on the economy. we are quite confident it will not turn into an inflationary situation.
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but we are watching these development quite closely. annmarie: everyone is asking that question, how are you going to pay for this stimulus injection. i want to get a sense of what you make with the treasury market. the seven year auction. that was the auction that set off the fire and turns of the bond rout. do you see stabilization? do you think the worst of the selloff is over? >> we do. when we look at the treasury market, we think the market has been trying to find what we think is a trading rage. we think we are close to finding that range. we dropped back to slightly below 160. we think there might be a little bit of scope for stabilization. we are going to see new make -- data coming in that is likely going to be strong.
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if europe is able to overcome this, europe will start to kick in. it is going to be an interesting point as to where the equilibrium level of interest rates really is. we do sort of worn our clients to be a little cautious. the market is in flux and it could move higher as well as lower. annmarie: from northern trust asset management, he is staying with us. we are going to talk about tech next, facebook and google blasted for their impact on children. and twitter taking some responsibility for the organizing that led to the capital riot. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> do you agree that this he goes, as the ceos of major tech companies, you should be held accountable to congress and the public? mr. zuckerberg? >> i think we are accountable to public -- to congress in the public. >> do you think you should be held accountable? marx i am not sure you -- >> i am not sure what you mean. >> should you be held accountable? >> yes, and we are. ask mr. dorsey. bikes yes, accountable to the public. >> i said accountable to
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congress and the public. we represent the public. so you agree? >> yes. >> mr. pichai. >> i am here because i'm accountable to public members and congress. >> testy tech hearing. lawmakers demanded yes and no answers. there was not a lot of room for nuanced responses. we did not hear anything new at all. looking at shares of the big three, all in the red. google unchanged. the softness more likely coordinated with the switch to cyclicals and rising yields. i wanted to get a sense in terms of what you think of the hearing. a lot of it is noise. investors know at some point, should they be more focused on regulation? >> that is exactly where our
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focus is at the moment. these hearings, to be honest, it is a little bit of a show. what we are really looking for is how will this congress -- and the european parliament -- how do they want to constrain the tech industry going forward? and the underlying services they provide still fit with what the public needs? and the data sourcing they use is appropriate? i think those questions and issues are going to come front and center for the next four years after a long time where they were not fully addressed. that is the focus for us. we think that is a modest headwind for the tech sector going forward. annmarie: short-term, tech is not under pressure because of interest rate sensitivity. long-term, do you like it? >> we think it is a little too
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early. the valuation gap is too big even though it is underperforming. we think there needs to be more clarity on the regulation side. there might be a little more upside, given how big of boom could be. we are looking at tech as a trade more after the 12 months. we do recognize these companies are well-positioned. we see the long-term story. right now, with the 12 month horizon, we are backing off. annmarie: tech was the big winner with the work from home trade. we do see cases increasing, whether in europe or also the u.s.. is the work from home trade done and dusted? >> you do wonder how much the market priced in and for what time they were pricing it in.
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i am kind of dying to get back into the office. when it comes to the incremental change, you are going to see people working a little less from home. some of these services might have to see, take a little step back in terms of leadership. that could be a modest headwind. annmarie: chief investment strategist, and asia-pacific, thank you so much and have a lovely weekend. strong words from president joe biden in his first formal news conference, signaling he is in no mood to let the trappings of bipartisanship stand in the way of his agenda. this is bloomberg. ♪ enda. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning. from bloomberg's european headquarters, it is six: 30 a.m. in the city of london. the ae you -- the eu first and then experts. germany will declare france a high-risk virus area. resident joe biden doubled down on doses, targeting 200 million vaccinations in his first one
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hundred days. and delayed shipping. shipping giants may end up taking a costly detour as that giant container ship remains stuck for a fourth day. good morning and happy friday. it is looking like whether or not this holds a risk on morning. equities 1.5% alongside a positive outlook. as i just mentioned, president joe biden doubling down, doubling what he wants to get done in terms of inoculations. also, yesterday, i jobless claims report that dropped more than expected. we are seeing a steady yields. -- steadying of yields. the seven year yield option was not great but not a disaster either. many saying it is worse of a
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selloff. will this morning, -- that ship still stuck in the suez. that could mean other tankers and chips going around the southern tip of africa. the dollar in poised to have a gain in the week. euro-dollar remains with the weakness of the virus and the vaccine. president biden doubled down on vaccines, targeting 200 million doses by the end of april. >> by my 100th day in office, two had head -- ministering to hundred million infrastructure,
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both physical and technological. >> china is investing three times more in infrastructure than the u.s.. we are not looking for confrontation, although we know there will be steep competition. we will have strong competition but insist china played by international rules. >> joining us is the senior partner. president biden's first formal press conference, doubling down on vaccine dosages. we were able to get through the 100 million pretty quickly. you think 200 million is ambitious enough? >> he is under promising and then over delivering. it is a smart tactic. it allows him to show he is meeting his goals and working for the american people.
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i think he will hit 200 million doses. the vaccine rollout is going extraordinarily well. and he is far to focus on that. it has been a big success for his first couple months in office. annmarie: i want to bring some breaking news to the audience. former diplomat in senegal, you are used to things like this happening. sue s now, the ship rescue effort, set to take at least a week. many were hoping by sunday, but it is going to be a week. it is going to be more of a logjam, where about 12% of global trade. one analyst says 200 million barrels a day are off the market. the question is whether ships will have to ditch the suez canal. go in an old-school route. we do see brent moving to an
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upside. brent up 1.5%. wti, 1.7%. this is going to take a week. at least a week. i know your expertise is not in the commodities market, but you were a diplomat in senegal. do you think the national security team, could this be worrisome to teams around the world? >> it is worrisome in the sense the fragility of the international supply chain. there will be a lot of looking at how we get our goods and trying to avoid potential chokepoints. it is not too much of a worry for the u.s. national security team. a temporary spike in oil prices
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is not great but not the end of the world. the larger question is supply chains, pharmaceuticals or oil. how do we get the goods we need for our lives and economies? that is part of what the team is looking at. annmarie: in the geopolitical front, yesterday and the press conference, a reporter asked about china. joe biden declined whether to say he will keep those tariffs. broadly, we are waiting for the biden team policy. do you see the bison team sticking with those tariffs from the trump era? >> joe biden is in a tough lace. democrats and republicans are trying to outdo themselves being tough in china. joe biden is aware if he gets rid of the tariffs, he will be
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painted as a week in china. part of the strategy for infrastructure, it is to frame it as a way to compete with china. that is intended to try to bring bipartisan support to the bill. whether that succeeds or not remains to be seen. republicans seem fairly determined to determine -- block joe biden's efforts on capitol hill. he is framing this package as a way to better compete with china. it should, -- for the meantime, the tariffs are here to stay. annmarie: the other discussion regarding china, a lot of american allies did not always love this bucket diplomacy approach. we will work with adversaries when it makes sense. does biden need to take a harder line when it comes to china? >> he is trying to carve out
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ways we can work together. we want to be cooperative when we can but competitive when we need to be. the basket of competitive areas is larger than the cooperative areas. i am sure joe biden spoke to the european council last night. i am sure china was one of the large topics of conversation. the u.s. and the europeans have a divergence. i think biden would trying to convince european leaders china represents a real threat to our way of life. it was clear the importance of democratic governments. he gets a little frustrated with the europeans to the relationship and much more commercial terms. for joe biden, it is existential. it is a threat to the future of u.s. standing in the world. annmarie: he made that point as well in the press conference. thank you for joining us.
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we will bring you more on this breaking news story coming out of the suez canal. that blockage likely to last at least a week. a full week. th means more ships are going to be blocked behind it. we have a spike in wti and brent. up 1.55%. this is bluebird. ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> is widespread. time will tell. hopefully they can get this
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cleared up. >> markets waiting, fingers crossed the whale should be cleared. >> every day longer, that will grow and the disruptions the supply side will intensify. actually think there will be some kind of global speed limit on the seas and especially through these canals. >> as the ships get bigger, we hope they get more official -- efficient. >> we have supply systems and supply chains under degree of stress. if a system is in distress, mistakes and accidents happen. >> they were already just recovering. annmarie: analysts weighing in on the suez canal blockage.
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the giant container ship remains firmly stuck. what is happening is the rescue effort is set to take at least a week. wording is important. we are not looking for this to be ungrounded until probably -- possibly tuesday. this is prompting shipping companies to begin time-consuming and costly tours around africa. give us the latest. we have had some breaking news on this, at least a week. what does this timeline look like? >> the earlier estimates, calling for monday or tuesday, going by what we are hearing, monday or tuesday might actually be the earliest the ship could be removed. we know yesterday from our reporting the ship had been launched in about five meters of
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sand. it doesn't sound like very much but using large, sophisticated equipment. annmarie: walk us through what happens to the other ships that are blocked. to they start to contemplate that costly detour going around africa? >> it is quite a long trip. assuming the ship was already at the suez canal, it is more likely they will wait around and see whether the rescue efforts and salvage work goes ahead. we have salvage companies that have been hired by the owners to undertake work. they are working with the authorities. for ships already at the canal, maybe they will wait it out. those that have not reached the
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canal and are coming from places like the u.s., they are seeing corn shipments being diverted. all these things companies are starting to think about and starting to do. annmarie: this is holding up billions of dollars of oil and consumer goods. looking at oil, how much do you think is being back in the market because of the ship? >> that is a bit tough. i think it would have to do with the number of vessels being held up. those numbers are not with me right now. i can say, looking at the tinker freight markets, the tinker freight -- tanker freight, bringing oil from the europe to
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the middle east, it definitely is a shock to the will market and we are seeing volatility increase based on what is happening in the suez canal. annmarie: thank you so much for joining us. just ahead on the program, we are going to hear from don fitzpatrick speaking exclusively to eric shatzer on why she thinks it is an important fine -- important time for crypto. >> we think the whole infrastructure around crypto is interesting. we have been making some investments into that infrastructure. we think that is an inflection point. it is everything to them monday,
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tax reporting on year crypto gains -- you are crypto gains. we think that is interesting. when it comes to crypto generally, we are at an important moment in time. something like bitcoin might have stayed a fringe asset. we have increased money supply in the u.s. by 25%. there is a real fear of debasing of fiat currencies. i think it is a commodity. it is a commodity that is easily storable, easily transferable. the irs classifies it as a physical asset. so i think it is interesting.
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i think by the way, when you look at gold price action in the context of a robust inflation narrative of late, it has struggled getting traction because bitcoin is taking some of the base away. >> do you own any bitcoin? >> i am not going to answer that. >> that is what i call a mysterious response. >> one thing when you think about bitcoin, central-bank digital currencies are going to be here quicker than people expect. china has been running their trial for a well-known. i think there are strategic regions why they are going to be a first mover. i do think from a geopolitical perspective, they want to use that digital currency to -- it a
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potential threat -- >> does it delegitimize bitcoin? >> i think it is a real threat but i think it will be temporary. i don't think they will be successful permanently stabilizing -- destabilizing bitcoin. >> speaking to erik schatzker. the eu summit continues after leaders gave tentative support to a plan to restrict vaccine exports. more on that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i want to start by asking all three of you if your platform bears responsibility related to this election that led to the attack on the capital. yes or no. mr. zuckerberg. >> chairman, i think our responsibility is to build systems -- >> i want to get a yes or no answer. do bear some responsibility for what happened? >> our responsibility is to make sure we build effective systems -- >> he chooses not to answer the question. mr. pichai. >> we always take a deep sense of responsibility but we worked hard. >> is that aes or no. >> congressman, it is a complex question. >> we will move on. mr. dorsey?
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>> yes, but you also have to take into accounting a broader ecosystem. fox think you >> -- >> thank you. >> yes or no. a heated exchange over the right and capitol hill in january. focusing on social media disinformation. eu leaders have given their cautious support to a plan to restrict vaccine exports. after it emerged the bloc -- angela merkel says germany will declare france a high incidence area. we spoke about the curve. we did not get to what is going on in terms of the virus increases across the european union. germany is going to get tougher on their border when it comes to france. >> that decision could come
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today. it is reflecting the numbers we are seeing coming out of france. hospital admissions have gone up. it goes in line with estimates from the french government. emmanuel macron had said coronavirus was going to hit and will hit hard until mid april. we have potentially 2-3 weeks of high infections. yesterday, emmanuel macron in a press conference said more measures could be taken. he did not go into specifics. made a promise vaccination will be quicker from now on. mid april, 10 million frenchmen and women will be vaccinators. that will go up to 20 by may. annmarie: merkel, she was among those reluctant to wield
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europe's big muscle. are they going to be curbing vaccines now? >> it is a good question because there is a fear that is important. when you look at the export of vaccines coming out of the european union, they say this is not going to be a blanket practice. it is not going to be done every day for every vaccine exported. they want to target companies. astrazeneca, there is a very real tension, real bad blood between the european commission and that company. this is about those companies not fulfilling their contract. very much about piling on the pressure for astrazeneca. angela merkel, the head of the dutch government, they both said the eu is well aware, said there are real, complex global supply chains and they do not want tension.
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but those contracts need to be respected. annmarie: korea taddeo. -- maria tadeo. i wanted to take a look at what is going on in the oil market. the suez canal, that ship blocking the canal remains blocked. information we are hearing, it is going to take at least a week. the earliest could be tuesday. many thought by then, this could be ungrounded. it will take at least a week. oil markets setting up for a poppy session. we do have brent nehring and in $63 a barrel. of more than 1.5% across both of those contracts. the worry is we could see oil tankers off the market. one estimate is they think 2 million barrels of oil are
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sitting there because of this blockage. some ships may have to go around the southern tip of africa. it takes a lot longer. more on the suez canal next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: good morning and welcome to bloomberg markets. the european open. mark cudmore joins me in singapore to take us through the market action. here are the top headlines. europe first and then exports. leaders back export curbs. president biden

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