comes back online is really starting to get called into question. >> everything we are hearing from the fed, literally everything, is that we are not moving. >> for the fed to think about inflation, they emphasize it has to be persistent, a situation where the whole economy is boiling over, and we are nowhere near that point. >> they have to consider tax increases, given where our fiscal position is yet, it is compelling. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> 200 million doses in 100 days. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" alongside lisa abramowicz, and tom keim is back with us monday. --: tom keene's back with us monday. we advanced a third of 1%. in many ways, the president with his new price target. lisa: the idea here going

forward, we have this optimism baked into markets. one thing that strikes me is how much we see the digital area stressing the fundamental infrastructure of our world. i feel like as we talk about reopening and the end of the pandemic, we have to rand -- reconcile what the digital world and just-in-time deliveries are doing to the reality of our physicality. jon: we will talk about that later, let's talk about where the money is going. from bank of america, the largest closing cash to ape -- since april of 2020. and the third largest inflow to tips ever. the latter point fuels what you are discussing right now. lisa: the idea here of inflation going forward, yes, we are getting a boost to the economy but could cause inflation. some people are saying there's friction, companies have to invest more in the physical infrastructure we are seeing shipping costs rise so much. transitory, yes. the longer-lasting effects of

this, more investment is needed and things cost more to ship around. jon: we need to focus on the supply side of the economy. we touched on that yesterday. we will do that through the morning. looking at price action this friday morning, almost there. deep breaths. i need it more than most at the moment. lisa: get it out. jon: i'll get there. lisa: i know. jon: foreign-exchange, we stay there, 117.93. up about .25%. lisa: i think this is fair to say this is a turning a market, insert of some catalyst beyond what we have seen. we have all of these competing narratives. i think one key narrative will be personal spending. we got a read on what we saw in february, personal income and spending, and the key pcae. expect everyone to shrug this

off. i think that is the takeaway for a lot of the data, we are expecting the personal spending to plunge the most since april. after january, a 10 percent jump as a result of stimulus payments that went out in that month. that waned last month. this month, they may restart with that $1400 check, but the -- but it is currently no man's land. patrick parker is going to be interviewed, expecting a lot of talk on inflationary impulses. the key issue is, when will the fed taper their monthly bond purchases? at 4:30 p.m. yesterday, i did look at the fed's balance sheet. it's a new record, but just in thing upward. the question is, how big can it get before people question the necessity of that asset. then baker hughes, key question is how much can the show producers get a swing vote here in some of the oil concerns around suez canal backup?

can they start ramping up production in short-term? is this a viable strategy for producers that have taken on a more conservative approach? they raised a ton of debt, led junk bond sales to a record high for the quarter, and here we are wondering whether they have learned their lesson or discipline, or whether they can provide the extra as we wait for some of the supplies to come through the suez canal. jon: let's touch on the energy story, up 2% on brent. up a little more than 2% on wti. just want to have a quick word on foreign-exchange. the turkish lira weekend by one full percentage point against the u.s. dollar, going against the grain of this morning with em farmer largely across the board -- firmer largely across the board. our next guest is a professor and former chief economist. good to catch up. it's been far too long. let's talk about this economy. how does that come to -- how

does the economy respond? >> one thing you and lisa talked about his price pressure. i think there is no doubt this huge bite in stimulus will stimulate the u.s. economy. the question is, how big will growth be, the gdp growth be this year? 7%, i think that is perfectly possible, followed by another strong reading next year. that is demand driven. the next question is, what are prices doing? i would expect pce or pc deflator to pick up. i don't see a sustained, huge increase at price pressure. the last point lisa mentioned was about digitalization and globalization. will this, when all of this pandemic is behind us, will it mean prices higher or lower, or unchanged?

i would argue the trend toward digitalization, which has been going on for little bit and intensified during the pandemic, certainly here in europe, and globalization are two main reasons why price pressure has been relatively moderate over the last two years -- few years. i do not think all of these trends, once the pandemic is hopefully over, means there is more price pressure or underlying pressure. jon: how and when would you know if you are wrong? >> too late. [laughter] that's the problem. we always -- you know how to works, when you are close to the financial market, you have all of the wage numbers and particularly inflation expectation. to be honest, economists and central banks, we cannot do anything else than looking at the data. yes we are forecasting models but they are only working so well as they did in the past.

i think one of the main indicators for the fed and most market economists looking at our inflation expectations. one has been relatively stable. the one that has picked up, market-based inflation expectation. there are a lot of technical reasons. we are bit hesitant to put too much emphasis on this. but of course when they go through the roof, that would probably be the first indicator that this benign view about inflation has been wrong. lisa: i love the honesty, i have to say. when will you know? harm: i'm not a market economist any no. lisa: the transparency is helpful. there's a question that where we see -- what we see right now not necessarily with the suez canal but in the supply chain strips

opted there, we have seen some of the cuts to the auto manufacturing jobs are on the world, cuts elsewhere, prices going up. there's a question, and i talk about the digital era, highlighting the stress point in our physical world. at one point does a necessity to invest, to adapt to this new world, lead to higher prices, higher friction, have another inflationary impulse we haven't seen in the decade of china's rise? harm: i totally agree. there's already a need for investing more, and that is one thing i learned when i came from the u.s. to germany in less than two years ago. i don't want to talk too badly about

things are good but the digital infrastructure isn't there. we need to interest -- we need to invest more. and that may be true for many reasons in the world. if that happens, and usually it happens gradually over time, this fight in stimulus where we have a demand impulse, a huge one over a short period, that is the exception. usually, these things develop more gradually and inflation picks up, but that is still more, i would think, a temporary reaction to higher demand and nothing underlying or lasting. lisa: keeping with the theme of frictions, there is a question about the euro zone and how quickly it can get up to trend. given the fact its vaccination rollout by many accounts has been bungled. can the euro region get to the capacity of growth you are expecting say by five months ago, based on how long it is taking for them to get off the ground? harm: no. the precondition for returning to solid growth numbers is that the vaccination process accelerates. just a few months ago, for example germany has been seeing as something like 8 -- seen as some thing role model.

the good number we have is relatively few casualties. relatively few people died in germany from this pandemic, but i would argue this is mostly because of the good health system that has already been in place. how are crisis management was not good, and right now, we are seeing the vaccination, the amount of vaccine shots available in germany and europe as a whole, that is not enough. as a reaction, we have seen, in germany, there was a bit of a back-and-forth, there are other countries in europe that are still in lockdown because people are not vaccinated. this is something that will go on, i would think. only when the numbers go down, these new mutants, they probably spread easier and we have got to be careful. i don't think it is under control, numbers are going up in

europe. the hope is that by the summer, the pace of vaccination has accelerated and the warmer weather somehow helps to contain the virus. only then, i think, can we see a pickup in growth. that is one to two quarters later than most people have in their current forecast. jon: it's good to see you. formerly the chief economist for owning credit, which loosen things up a little bit. from new york city this morning, your average daily vaccination number in america, let me take higher, 2.5 million doses. the president is doubling his outlook, 200 million doses over the first 100 days of his presidency. in many ways marking to market. that has been behind this improving outlook in the united states of america. on that outlook, 7:00 a.m., we have the co-cio -- a cio.

i'm jonathan ferro and equity futures making a push higher to close on the week. up 13 on the s&p. it has been a choppy week. in the bond market, will have to talk about the struggle of supply. what is it about the seven year? this is bloomberg. ♪ with the first -- ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it will take longer than first estimated to clear the ship. the operation would only take a few days but concern the blockage will disrupt global supply chains covering everything from oil to grain to cars. the fed is signaling an end to pandemic restrictions that dragged on stocks last year. big u.s. banks that clear the next round of stress test with

-- tests with sufficient capital will be allowed to continue until june. president biden has doubled vaccinations for his first 100 days in office. the president wants to hundred million doses administered by the end of april. he says the u.s. is on pace to meet the new goal. we work has reportedly agreed to a deal that would take the shares of its provider public. according to the dow jones, the merger would value we work at $9 billion, including debt, in 2019 -- debt. in 2019, the firm had to rescue we work and holds a majority stake. in georgia, governor brian kemp signed into law a controversial republican overhaul. the measure includes new restrictions on voting by mail and more legislative control over how elections are run. democrats say the law will make

it harder for people of color to vote. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: the next major initiative is to rebuild the

infrastructure, both physical and technological infrastructure, in this country. china is investing three times as much in infrastructure as the united states is. jon: infrastructure spending, that is where the emphasis was of the first news conference of his presidency. good morning, alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. here is the price action on the opening bell. s&p up by 11 points, and the nasdaq up by 41, a similar amount. in the bond market, yields up a couple basis points. in foreign exchange, euro-dollar south of 118. the crude market is starting all over the place, still at $59 and $.93, up by a little more than 2%. wasn't yesterday fascinating? our own justin and the news conference asking about gun control.

the president spent the next several minutes talking about infrastructure. if you learned nothing new on substance, the takeaway was clear on this is, infrastructure is the next push. lisa: and the discipline in terms of focusing his message and remaining very much on script, not willing to deviate, not willing to have a gap. i will say, going forward, there is still a lot of questions remaining about his policies. jon: there literally was a script the president was a little reading off of the entire time, so well-prepared area let's bring in emily wilkins. let's start there. where do we start do -- when we start to hear more about this and get detailed substance? emily: i think we are already at this part where you are at the start of negotiations on the infrastructure bill. you've heard lawmakers begin to talk about it. what they do want to see, what they don't want to see, the tax com -- tax component we were talking about, that will be a huge part paying for this bill. i think right now we are at the

start of this marathon, maybe one or two miles into it, but we have a long way to go. we will see this go throughout congress and throughout spring into summer. i think lawmakers are looking at september to get something done, because they have critical programs on infrastructure that expire at december. that's kind of the deadline that congress has at this point. jon: there were shovel -- subtle shifts yesterday. we would hear things like unity out of the inauguration, but unity specifically around unifying the country and not congress. do you think that highlights the path forward on infrastructure? emily: i think it is partly the biden administration grappling with how difficult it will be to get 10 republican senators to sign onto anything at this point. when you saw the biden administration go around and try to sell their last large

stimulus package, when they talked about the bill being bipartisan, they did not talk about at the federal level, they talked about it amongst americans who identify as republicans and republican leaders. you saw biden touch on that yesterday, with a couple questions about the filibuster. that is the policy in the senate, the only thing standing in the way of democrats passing their bills without a single republican vote. biden said it was abused in a gigantic way and this is the first time we have seen president biden open to the idea of scrapping the filibuster altogether. lisa: that's why wanted to go, this idea of at least making congress members stand for hours and hours on end, getting tired in order to have a filibuster that was scrapped a while back. he wants to reinstate that to get things done. how far is he willing to go and one of the ratifications for mitch mcconnell -- ramifications for mitch mcconnell? emily: at this point, we have to take the question and shift it

to senator joe mansion of west virginia and other moderate democrats in the senate. at this point, they have been hesitant to do anything, any changes to the filibuster. they say they do not want to eliminate the filibuster, they are not in favor of that. for this talking filibuster, the idea that if you want to filibuster something, that is fine, but you need to be present on the senate floor talking that entire time. that is one of the ideas to bring it back. at this point, it is a matter of pressure that senators feel. the house has been passing needs bills on immigration, gun control, voting rights, civil rights, now they are all stuck in the senate. the question is how much pressure well these democratic senators feel to eliminate the filibuster or make changes to the filibuster to pass some of the big, democratic priorities. lisa: there is a broader point here. that is the death of

bipartisanship or image of it. how is that taken on capitol hill? emily: capitol hill is becoming increasingly partisan, i think not just in the past decade but even in the decades prior. this is something we are seen -- seeing even in small ways or on capitol hill. there is one key processes that are very usually bipartisan that have been upended by republicans who are in the majority or feel democrats have taken away some of their minority powers at the time. it is difficult to get something done, but at the same point, congress reflects the attitudes in america, and there are many signs that americans are more partisan than ever before. at this point, you are in the situation where you have to get things done for people who come from the most conservative parts of the country versus the most liberal. and that's hard to do. jon: i want to finish on this because news crossed the bloomberg in the last 24 hours,

and i think it's fascinating. we talk a lot about the u.s. hardline on the chum -- china communist party. multinationals will need cover. the latest on h&m, the retailer, according to some of the reporting we have been doing, they are not showing up on maps in china in the mainland, apple maps or baidu maps. you used to be able to go on the maps and find where the stores were but they are not there anymore. there's a spat between some of these retailers and the cotton industry in the shenyang region of china. if you're going to have a hard line with the chinese communist party, multinationals are about to get caught up in this at some point. is the administration giving us any thought on how they plan to give corporate america specifically the cover to come along with them on policy? emily: i think that is a really great point -- great question, and it is something we will have to increasingly watch as you see

china take the retaliatory actions against h&m and other multinational corporations. tying this back to the start of our discussions, bluebird also asking biden about china. president biden said he would outspend china on construction and infrastructure but he didn't say if you'd replace bands on products made in china by forced labor. i think this is a policy the biden administration is flushing out to, but i think we will see more of this because it has become clear in this past we count important the issue of dealing with china is to president biden. jon: emily wilkins and washington, d.c., thank you. so far, lisa, we have learned a lot about tone. we know where the tone and emphasis is from this administration and we need to see substance now. ok is a multilateral approach. what are the outcomes of that, what is the policy? lisa: competition, not

confrontation, that was the mantra when it comes to china. let's see what muscle he can put behind competition. jon: from new york city this morning, i'm jonathan ferro. equities are doing ok. from new york city this morning, good morning, this friday, this powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

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jon: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. it is a friday morning price action. on the s&p 500, up about .25%. on the nasdaq, up, on the russell two, 7/10 -- .7%. consolidation has been broad-based. talking about the state home stocks, they have suffered off their 52-week highs. the russell joined in on the consolidation, a move lower almost 10%. more than that over the last few weeks of the highs of the middle of this month. we switch up the board and a lot of the concern has come from the bond market recently. 175 on a bond u.s. 10 year. even with the soft seven-year

auction, what is it about a seven year? we talk about that later in the program. your 10 year, your 30 year, 238. any reason for the fed to be concerned. lisa mentioned the data tracking the amount of death issuance from high-yield junk companies in america, record quarter. that's a big story. record quarter, rush you -- record issuance. that is issue for the fed right now. at the moment, they will be comfortable with what they see on the chart right now. they were tight this time last year and are still loose. lisa: no evidence for them of dysfunction in the markets. certainly no disorderly unwind. if anything, financial conditions remaining loose as they have in even as yields rise. we have the situation of a big ship stuck in a canal. that's messing with trade. responsibility of 10% of global

trade or more plugged up and causing mayhem among shipping routes. joining us now is brendan murray who coordinates bloomberg trade and supply chain coverage. can we start an update on the situation of this ship blocking the suez canal. -- canal? how long will this take and how much our shipping routes being rearranged? >> looks like it will last until the middle of next week from the sources we have talked to. that means they will work for the next couple days, digging around the ship, trying to push and pull that in, and hopefully the tides can work with them over the weekend. there's a chance it could extend longer than that, so you see ships already diverting around africa as they make their way toward europe or asia. a lot of the shipping companies are making the best. it will take a while to move this massive vessel. lisa: i told jon i would wait

until monday to start possibly raising questions of whether the ship would be moved and whether or not we would see a ship stuck in the canal for the rest of posterity. in all seriousness, there is a question of what kind of longer-lasting implications they will be. is this completely transitory, a temporary flip people were not seeing, or will there be longer-lasting implicate -- longer-lasting amplifications for shipping routes? >> i think a lot of companies in europe right now are asking themselves, wouldn't it be great if we produced our products on the side of the suez canal? morocco, turkey, places like that. one of the longer-lasting things that companies have started to rethink the supply chains anyway, this will just heighten the urgency to address the risk of being spread out globally. jon: how easy is it to look at the situation right now and say, let's do air freight instead? how simple is that?

the competition for certain companies from airfreight is comfortable. can you run me through doing it by airfreight instead? brendan: if there's any market tighter than the container shipping market is the airfreight market. as a heckuva lot more expensive, too. if you can find space on a plane with cargo right now, you are lucky. if you do, you will pay probably 10 times the rate you would pay to ship a container. all of that, all of what we are seeing says extra cost to me. it will take longer, be more expensive to ship it, and companies can withstand those costs for a while, but eventually, they will bleed through to the consumers. jon: a final question from me, where do you think we are now on some of these issues? just best guess from people you talk to since you follow this closer than i do.

over the last 12 months, huge supply chain issues. the competition for airfreight is huge. can this persist, and for how long? brendan: it seems the ship situation, stuck ship, could last another week or two. that will resolve itself. what we will see is a domino effect after that. it is not going to clear up right away, and already, people are talking about canceled sailing a month from now because ships delayed will miss their return trips. the whole system is going to be thrown out of sync. it could take a couple months for that to resolve itself. jon: great to catch up and come back soon. brendan murray a bloomberg on the latest at the suez canal. i pushed back against this a lot because i don't want to talk about how big the ship is and what goes through the suez canal and a bunch of pretty numbers and get everyone's attention

that way. these are serious issues to work through. what will happen in the next several months, we will have a big conversation about inflation, but in the data. it's important once we see the data to keep a level head. what will be difficult, and i don't think people can answer this question, how will you know if it is not transitory? the answer we got back from harm was that it would be too late. that is the issue we will have in a couple months once we see the data. we will have this conversation with the data soon. lisa: the fed probably agrees it would be too late, but they think the risks to the upside with respect to inflation are not as great as the risk to the downside of disinflationary trends. i think going forward, parsing out the temporary versus more permanent investments that get passed under the consumer will be a key aspect of economic analysis. jon: joining us now is the head of affect strategy. weigh in on a couple things.

let's make it simple. what is the dominant factor driving foreign exchange and g10 right now? >> if u.s. me, i i think it is -- i think it is nominal trends. i think we will see that percolate into foreign change -- foreign-exchange market is trading. over the last month, with how spreads have moved, there seems to be a tight relationship. jon: did you think higher inflation could lead to higher interest rates in america, and therefore, stronger dollar two, or does it work the other way? >> i'm a bit resid -- read his into say that. we see breakeven inflation not only higher in the united states, but it is different from saying the real yields and most of the work there. in the latter scenario, there is arguably more support for the dollar long-term. if we do see inflation rising, there's a good chance that could be exported elsewhere as well, which would negate the whole thing anyway, and you would be

left with spreads for the coming quarter. lisa: one of the big questions jon has been highlighting for the last couple weeks is this idea of the euro weakening slightly versus the dollar and why hasn't it weakened more? i'm wondering how forward-looking are fx markets are now in terms of looking toward european recovery? do we get a sense at some point that the european recovery is push off even longer due to the vaccination rollout and how many troubles there have been? then that weakness gets built and then? bipan: could be. right now, when we look at the euro-dollar, i would not say it is too far forward-looking. it is more of a tactical play. over the longer term, looking at valuation metrics, we are closer to fair value now than a year ago when we were flirting with the 108 handle. the vaccine rollout, the slower it is an longer it continues, i would argue it will continue to affect the downside risks in the

euro. i try to not get caught up on who is -- without much liquidity out there, the lags, the market will look past. . the longer this goes on, the more i would be inclined to say the ecb will get more aggressive. tying it back to nominal spreads, that should lead to degree of the treasuries underperforming what we see in europe sovereigns. that is potentially leading to the euro-dollar underperforming. lisa: do you think going forward the balance of risk to the dollar will strengthen materially versus the euro through year-end? bipan: i want to say over the coming quarter, definitely we could see an ongoing outperformance with respect to the dollar. to your end, i would be more inclined to say we would be between 115 to 119 here. jon: always good to catch up. see you soon. head of affect strategy, thank you sir. would you believe it, given the

conversation about europe through much of this year so far, the first three months, at least the banks in europe, are more than 18%? the leisure stocks in europe of 20% year-to-date so far. if the euro has got wooden -- has gotten weaker recently but we priced in a better outlook not just in america but europe too. it's not just the banks that have been rolling in america but the european banks too. on the travel and leisure story, up 20% given what we have seen in europe still, which is countries, cities still in lockdown and travel not picking up anytime soon, according to guidance from france and germany. it is pretty remarkable. lisa: i wonder how much bipan pointed to liquidity is the issue here. a lot of stocks are coming off of low base. if you look at what european banks and travel socks have been doing in the months prior. before last year, when you take a look at that, perhaps it is a liquidity story.

people looking at the most oversold themes and saying they will not perhaps go bankrupt. the bar is getting lower at least on a macro level and for the whole year, not necessarily in the last couple weeks when it comes to what to invest in. lisa: it's been that way -- jon: it's been that way for about a month -- for about nine months now. this is sort -- the source of upside get more difficult from here. that is why it is more difficult on peak expectation and peak growth. we have been going back and forth. you might see peak oath in the next couple quarters in america and elsewhere too. lisa: the question is how much of that is price in? how much of that is including additional stimulus from washington, d.c.? i don't have a read on it or get what is changed over the last week to lead the russell to underperform so much. jon: you know what has changed on the vaccine race? more and more states opening up eligibility for everybody.

california is the latest to make that announcement and a scheduling date too. still waiting on new york and the governor of new york to make a similar move. coming up, andrew of johns hopkins, professor and virologist. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. there will not be quick fixes for the block in the suez canal. bloomberg learned it will take at least until wednesday to dislodge the massive shipment blocking the waterway. it is expected to only take a few days. there is concern the incident will disrupt global supply chain of everything from oil, to grain, to cars. china is imposing tariffs of up to 218% on australian wine. these will last five years and there are -- they are assigned that china is taking a harder

line on its relationship with australia. beijing claims the wind is subsidized, sold under market value. an industry group and australia deny that. president biden says the u.s. is in talks with mexico and expects to stem the flow of migrants. thousands of families have traveled to the u.s. in recent weeks, hoping to be allowed to stay. families are expelled under a public health order invoked by the trump administration. mexico is unwilling to accept all of them. the national labor relations board is cracking down on tesla. the board ruled the carmaker repeatedly violated labor law and must rehire a union activist it fired. elon musk is ordered to delete a threatening tweet from his account. the number of coronavirus cases in the u.s. is rising again, reversing months of decline and threatening another setback in the return to normality. the daily average of new cases

rose to more than 57,000 on wednesday, the biggest increase in more than two months. it is still well below the peak in mid-january. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ han 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> companies have to honor their contract to the european union before they export to other

regions in the world. this is of course the case with astrazeneca. i think it is clear for the company that, first of all, the company has to catch up and honor of the contracts it has with the european member states before it can engage again in exporting vaccines. jon: there are many interpretations of what is going on on the continent right now. there's the european commission president very much under siege in the last couple months on this topic. from new york city, good. i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action. as we count onto the opening bell, nine points up on the s&p. we advance .25%, by three basis points, on the tenure to 166.54. europe is 118. yesterday, 118.73. for more on the day. on the week, a break, a clean

break. there is the crude story. price action off of the back of wti. wti is 59.79, up a little more than 2%. california making the announcement in the last 20 -- last one he for hours, 50 plus eligible for the vaccine. at the same time, the announcement in the middle of the month, april 15, 16 plus. we have seen this state after state over the last several weeks pushing to widen and open up eligibility for this vaccine. lisa: is it just me or is there a mystery behind how this is being done? in other words, what the criteria are for each state to open up eligibility, why they're waiting, when they can say ok, how quickly people can get in line. i look every day to see if there is a wait list to get extra supply people do not use at the end of the day. they are all filled up and there is not a lot of guidance. do they have criteria they are not sharing? jon: let's talk about that

mystery with andrew pet cost, the john hopkins bloomberg school of public health professor. let's start there. these decisions state to state, are they underpinned by data and science? what is your interpretation of these data recently? >> there are two basic principles here. one is the administration of the vaccinations is left up to states to work out firm details about which populations and when these populations will be eligible to lineup for the vaccine. that is the first part that provides a little bit of problem, in terms of interpreting things across states. the second thing is the first goal of this vaccination campaign was to try to protect those populations that are at risk of the most severe disease. those are the elderly, health-care workers exposed to the virus more frequently, that's people with underlying medical conditions. we are now seeing the vaccine supply projected to increase dramatically over the next few weeks. you are now starting to see this

vaccination opened up to other groups. the state to state variation and terms of how they prioritize the groups is what you have seen is causing confusion when you look across the country in terms of how the vaccines are being rolled out. jon: you think we are trying to anticipate hesitancy that might be on the horizon? andrew: i think that will be the biggest issue we have to deal with going forward now. supply looks like it will not be a problem in the next couple weeks. the goal president biden put out of immunizing 200 million americans implies a very large percentage of the adult population in the u.s. will accept a vaccine, and some of the poles i have been seeing, particularly poles that to look at different social economic groups, racial groups, don't suggest the vaccine acceptance rate is that high to reach that 200 million goal. we may have enough vaccines, but we have to work hard to make sure we have people that are lining up to get those vaccines.

jon: i want to -- lisa: i want to go back to what you are saying, this idea of getting the most vulnerable populations vaccinated. i wonder at what point that makes covid-19 like the average flu or any other disease that people get, that it is not a big deal, then they get over it. at what point does the fact the most runnable has been taking care of allow us to reopen and stop social distancing in the same way we have, even if we have not reached herd immunity when it comes to vaccination? andrew: scientifically, we will be looking at the case numbers and case fatality rates. if you see case fatality rates dropping significantly lower then the case numbers, you will see that we can infer the vaccine is doing the first job, protecting the most vulnerable from the most severe disease. at that point in time, it becomes just a race to get as many people vaccinated, so we can reduce the number of cases.

the case number will be important, even if they are mild cases, because that sets up situations where we can have the emergence of some of the variance -- variants that might get around the immunity the vaccine puts in place. for the next couple weeks, -- weeks, we had to think about public health and vaccinations as a two-pronged strategy to reduce the cases. once we can reduce the cases and get significant vaccine into most of the population, that is when the rollouts become more feasible. lisa: how does the therapeutics that have been established play into this? the idea that merck and pfizer have different pills they are developing that you can take when you first get the virus that take away some of the symptoms and keep people out of the hospital. do they add to this push, the allowance to reopen even before we reach the threshold of immunization? prof. pekosz: absolutely. this brings up the third prong that we will hopefully have in

place as well. you mentioned an important point, these therapeutics coming out have to be given early. they target the virus, and the viruses often times highest at the early stages. when people are in their severe sages -- in their early stages, the viruses present at lower amounts. it is the immune response driving the severe nests. -- severe nests -- severity. jon: always great to see you, andrew. catch you next week. andrew pekosz, johns hopkins university bloomberg school of public health professor. the pushback, the frustration with government right now is probable, at least peeking to people. we have given up a lot of civil liberties over the last 12 months and people rush to claim

them. i don't think they will rate -- wait for the president to say you can meet on july 4. lisa: you can go outside and see people are not exactly waiting. there is frustration on every level, guidance on what you can and cannot do on hugging your friends, being social, but also on who gets the vaccine and when. if you have this multifaceted program across states with different right area. -- different criteria. and yes, joe biden doubled his target to 200 million shots. however, there might not be 200 million individuals in america willing to take it. jon: hesitancy, acceptance, get in front of it. i wonder how many politicians will be able to -- be willing to give up the power they have gained over the last 12 months? did you see that hearing with the tech ceos? there was a particular individual who turned to each one of them, who are you accountable to? you can see that. over the last 12 months,

politicians have maybe gained a lot of control and power that they will have to give up and quickly. from new york city for our audience worldwide, coming up, our next guest, a cio. this is bloomberg. ♪

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the market is very optimistic about reopening of the vaccine. >> the problem is everything we are hearing is that we are not moving. >> you think about inflation, they keep emphasizing that it has to be persistent. it has to be a situation where the whole economy is boiling over. we are just nowhere near that point. >> the case to consider tax increases is compelling. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from london and new york, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan