the market is very optimistic about reopening of the vaccine. >> the problem is everything we are hearing is that we are not moving. >> you think about inflation, they keep emphasizing that it has to be persistent. it has to be a situation where the whole economy is boiling over. we are just nowhere near that point. >> the case to consider tax increases is compelling. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from london and new york, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro.

the s&p 500 is up 0.3%. lisa, the first news conference with president biden. could he make it any more obvious where the next push is in d.c.? lisa: i don't too. [laughter] he basically was reading from a script that said infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure. you want to talk about china -- infrastructure. the main question is, how big of a spending plan can they get unilaterally with just democrats. it seems the bipartisan effort has gone off the table. jonathan: even something as sensitive as gun control pivoted to infrastructure. we all witnessed that. [laughter] we saw that play out in the last 24 hours. . the other thing we heard about consistently was unity. and then we heard something else -- i am unifying even if i can't unify congress. sounded really loud and clear to me, "we are going it alone

now." lisa: there is baggage, the idea that obama tried to get a coalition and get things done through consensus he didn't get as much done as people expected. he was basically responding to that and saying, i am here to get things done. if that means going it alone, we will change filibuster rules. that is a new tone in washington senator mitch mcconnell saying basically, this is legal war if they go that route. so to me, that is one of the questions of this legislative era. jonathan: it is a tone that many anticipated. we are starting to see a real shift from this presidency now. here is the price action. we have the equity market up 10, advancing 0.25%. nasdaq unchanged. yields higher in the last hour,

1.67 on 10's, up 4 basis. once again, a seven-year auction comes a little soft. not like we saw last month, but something widely expected. i was surprised it was as soft as it was. lisa: i think a lot of people were. the idea is, what is so unique about the seven year auction? we didn't see this with the two-year auction? good thing is it is not roiling the markets, yields are higher. so it is not that extreme. what data matters at this point? we will be getting at 830 a.m. eastern time, personal spending data for the month of february. the expectation is that it plunged the most since april. but expect everybody to shrug it off because we are between

stimulus payments. at what point do people take the data privacy and apply it to the future versus just look past it? we will hear michael mckee interviewing someone about the inflation debate and talking about when the fed might start easing monthly bond purchases. and at 1:00 p.m., the commodity story. we have seen a lot of volatility and oil prices plunging and then rising. the suez canal blockage, the count we get will be interesting because it really talks to the shale dominance of the past era. people said peak shale was over, but now we are seeing more shale production as we see international fluids. do these shale producers see this as an opportunity to wrap up production? jonathan: april 13, cpi data for

america. it is not the data per se, it is how we respond to the data. i am fascinated to see how people respond when they actually see the numbers. over the next several months. how many times we hear transitory. and how many people think it is transitory, but then start changing their mind as soon as they see the actual data itself over the next quarter or so. lisa: i wonder if there has been any president for the granularity of inflation and the analysis of that. because it is no longer inflation, it is aware. does food inflation matter? it will be ultimately wage inflation. we will not necessarily see that until vaccinations are complete and people can actually go out and go on vacation. jonathan: spending numbers already coming out from the likes of bank of america, increased 25% in the last seven days ending march 20, up 23%

over the two-year. 23% for the seven days ending march 20. stimulus, lisa, already being spent in america in a big way. and that will show up in the numbers, too. lisa: and there will be a tight labor market for certain areas where they have to hire a lot of workers at once. that, again, goes to wage pressures. will it also be transitory as we shift towards a more normal economy? jonathan: troy gayeski joins us now, sky bridge capital co-cio. is it transitory? how do you think people will respond when we actually see the numbers next several months? troy: i think whether it will be transitory or permanent will continue to lead to volatility, not only in fixed income markets, but also equity markets. certainly, the risk of the recovery and another stimulus

package, the vaccine rollout that started somewhat botched and accelerated dramatically. we have now gotten almost 9% gdp and another fiscal stimulus check. the downside is inflation, higher inflation. that is taking some of the steam and froth off the markets. we have become concerned, that causes the fed to prematurely withdraw that aggressive balance sheet expansion and money supply growth. without money supply growth sustainably above nominal gdp, it is hard to justify the valuations right now. jonathan: what is the game plan for q2? troy: for the fed in particular? jonathan: for you, sir. troy: for us, fortunately we are off to a good start.

one of those years where the first shall be last and the last shall be first. some of the high-performing tech and growth stories of last year have turned into dust, and portfolios like ours that are more focused on value and cyclical exposures like structural credit, which are by definition turnaround cyclical stories, have done exceptionally well. arbitrage continues to be a strategy that is very attractive . on top of that, you have multi-strategy managers adding material value as activists not only in disney, but also in other companies. last week we were fortunate in picking up our bitcoin position, towards the beginning of december. it is the purest macro expression for so many phenomenon right now, 28% more m2 then we had during the pandemic, budget deficits as

high as the eye can see. and then last week, what is happening in crypto now, as you are aware, is you are going through an adoption story very similar to what happened to gold from '06-2013, peace. life insurance companies, corporate treasuries. lisa: hold on, a second. troy: they are getting involved. we think the probability of outperforming equities, we are super excited for q2. lisa: let's dig into this bitcoin position. how big is the sizable bitcoin position you took in december? have you adjusted? are you going to reduce it? is it active or is it a long-term holding? troy: it was rare.

most of the things we pursue, we dig into and as we get more data, we size it up over time. in this case, it was clear to us that there was going to be a big move. it would be somewhere in the near term. so we needed to frontload that. we started in mid-november, bumped it up to 5.5% at cost in december. from here, we are not adding any capital. we will manage the position over time, but we think we are in the suite spot of all three of those factors in terms of money supply the adoption cycle,, and we are not even a year into it. the full market -- bull market tends to last 18 months. it has grown to about a 30% position size through appreciation. fortunately, the rest of our portfolio has done well to offset that -- 13% position size through appreciation. if [indiscernible]

jonathan: 13% of your portfolio. just how much volatility is in your portfolio right now? troy: so that is one of the prices you have to pay to have better performance. we typically target a 48% standard deviation. we think this year it will be between 8% to 12% considering how much bitcoin has grown. we have a unique opportunity where you are getting paid for that risk. with many other strategies, it is difficult to get paid for taking market volatility risk. the final point, i think back over my career and in the history of us managing our funds, it is very similar to '07 , where all seven was the year where if you had a subprime

short on, you were good. if you didn't, it was harder to make money if you were transitioning from what ultimately turned into a bear market. that is how the year has laid out so far. we are not saying that at the end of 2021 that will be how things play out, we think there is a reasonable chance that most active managers look back and say, if i had a bitcoin position, i had a good year, and if i didn't, it was much more challenging. jonathan: you have to come back so we can talk more about it. troy gayeski. this might be the year where success or failure is determined by whether or not he had a meaningful position in bitcoin, similar to how the 2007 success was driven by meaningful subprime short exposure. troy gayeski of sky bridge capital -- we should have kept him another 10 minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. it will take longer to free the

giant container ship that is blocking the suez canal. bloomberg has learned it will take at least until next wednesday and maybe longer. at first it was believed the operation would take a few days. there is concern the blockage will disrupt global supply chains covering everything from oil to grain to cars. the fed is signaling an end to pandemic-era restrictions that dragged on financial stocks. banks have cleared the second round of stress tests and will be allowed to resume dividend increases at the end of june. limited stock buybacks also will be lifted. wework has agreed to a blank-check company deal that would take the shared office provider public. it is worth $9 billion, including debt. in 2019, wework was valued at $47 billion. the firm later had to rescue wework and now holds a majority stake -- softbank. shares of gamestop are

still on a roll. it gained 53% yesterday. some of the other so-called meme stocks are also higher today, including amc and express. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. 120 countries. i am ritika gupta.

♪ >> these are highly progressive tax changes. again, the president touching

goal here is to reward work, not wealth, make sure corporate their fair share. therefore, no one with fixed income under $400,000 will see a tax increase under the plans that will be trotted out starting probably next week. jonathan: the white house council of economic advisors member there. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside lisa abramovitz, i am jonathan ferro. tom keene not with us. he will be back monday. s&p 500 higher by 0.2%. the nasdaq, dipping into decorative territory. in the fx market, the euro with a 117 handle against the dollar. euro-dollar -- 117.77. and can we round up the price action on this? bitcoin year to date? the reason i bring this up, year to date, up 83.46%.

it is because troy gayeski was on the show about five minutes ago. if you missed the conversation, here is a summary of his best macro trade idea -- bitcoin. this may be the year where success will be determined by whether or not you had a meaningful position on bitcoin similar to how the 2007 success was determined by whether or not you had a meaningful subprime short exposure. he is not doing anything about it, he is staying with this trade. lisa: fascinating conversation. 5% in december to 13% now, that is what he said. . to me, the idea that this is the biggest macro had exposure, on the debasement of the currency, the potential growth in innovation, all these aspects, this is the key hedge, the key trade, to me it raises a question about regulatory scrutiny and also, what

institutional investors are looking for. . is that basically what has been driving the gains in bitcoin? not the retailers, but institutions who are seeing this as a key macro boost. jonathan: and also the volatility. how much volatility you are allowed to tolerate in the portfolio. no doubt, we will try to lead with it in the podcast with lisa later this afternoon. chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. let's start with the news conference. i always comment on the news conferences. but you, who have been in the room with the president before and ask questions, i want to understand your assessment of the media's performance in that conference. kevin: i thought justin sink, our colleague, did a great job. i thought kristen welker of nbc news, where she asked for transparency in terms of the horrific crisis at the u.s.-mexico border.

but i was struck that there weren't questions about unemployed americans. millions of unemployed americans. track that there weren't questions about workforce development, about middle-aged americans trying to find a job. there wasn't a lot of questions about reopening schools. i thought it was a missed opportunity for the media as well as for president biden to talk about what he is doing to reopen the economy as well as to get the economy at a point that is more equal. i am struck by this because they have done it, both of the two folks in that room before. several of that folks have had that conversation with you, jonathan, from the white house. rick davis said, and i thought it was brilliant -- he is aware bloomberg politics contributor -- he said, that is what happens when you don't do press conferences, is a you box it all up and then it bubbles over. when you don't have a lane of

communication, you can't expect but to have what happened yesterday happen. jonathan: for the president, then, you have to imagine, this is the media we are talking about now, not the president's performance, you think he should continue doing that? kevin: in terms of talking with strategists yesterday, i think -- i am not sure you can drive a narrative that way. but hey, you know, they have a lot of strategists. they don't need me. [laughter] lisa: it seems like, though, as if there is a lot of popular support for biden xiao jie proposals. did he make any headway in either gaining popular support for infrastructure spending, or at least get fellow democrats on board to push something through unilaterally? kevin: that is a great point, lisa. the stimulus proposal and the infrastructure have polled extremely high. but there were two dynamics at play yesterday. from a policy standpoint, he

stayed away from the filibuster and support of filibuster reform. that has wide-ranging implications for lots of policies. secondly, he alluded to that he may be is running for a second term. that also has implications in terms of the dynamic of his negotiating power, not with republicans, but with his own party, who are now going to be wondering that if he goes for a second term, will he be primary, what type of democrat will he be? will they get any more political capital -- the far-left -- in negotiating with him at a time when they are already frustrated at how the stimulus plan went? lisa: there is a question of how far president biden is willing to go especially since this is the nuclear option when it comes to senator mitch mcconnell. kevin: filibuster, from a

procedural standpoint, to dust off my eighth grade schoolhouse rock live days, it is a hurdle. that hurdle presents itself to slow down the process in the senate. if you remove that hurdle, it will make legislation in the house as well as the senate move incredibly quickly. but decades from now -- it would be the most significant structural change to order in the upper chamber in quite some time if it were to happen. jonathan:. jonathan: kevin, as always, good to see you. chief washington correspondent. he will be on bloomberg radio this afternoon at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. lisa, a mile wide and an inch deep. the press had so many things to touch on. think that is the strategy in some ways, you wait two months to do a press conference, the press does not stick to one

subject, it goes all over the place and it allows you to stay that deep and go one mile wide. we didn't get much on substance at all. lisa: honestly, that actually is really informative, the idea that joe biden is taking a much harder stance on the filibuster issue. from people familiar, this will allow the democrats to get rid of it, to go it alone with many more proposals which could potentially make the government more effective, but also much more binary and flipping around depending on whether democrats or republicans are in power, john. jonathan: what happened to unity in d.c.? lisa: it was never there, come on! [laughter] jonathan: i couldn't agree with you more. the idea of inviting senators over and having conversations and nothing really happening. lisa: well, ok. in fairness, though, when obama tried that approach, people accused him of not getting enough done.

biden is taking that lesson and applying it. jonathan: let's not waste time returning you will do it. i agree with you, that is where they are now. the pretending has stopped. [laughter] they will not pretend anymore. from new york city, good morning. equity futures up 7% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: 7:30 eastern. two hours away from the opening bell in new york city. here is the morning price action. equity futures up 0.1%. the nasdaq down 0.4%. but the russell snaps back. it has been about the weakness in both the last couple of weeks. tech, stay-at-home names -- zoom, peloton and others underperforming. a big move on the russell since the middle of this month as well, down around 10% or so. -- up 10% or so. what is it about the seven year? what is it about the belly of the yield curve that is so soft when it comes to --? robert tipp has his take.

we have a lift on 10s to about 240 now. the curve is starting to steepener. we will get to that story in a moment. and it has got to be that call of the morning, for me, the call of the last couple of months this year so far. troy gayeski on the show a couple of minutes ago and saying the fate of your portfolio essentially comes down to how you are positioned on bitcoin, app 82% year-to-date -- up 82% year-to-date. troy gayeski is not saying that the fate of your portfolio is determined by this in the same way that your position around subprime in 2007 was. 2007 and 2021. that was the comparison. short subprime -- long bitcoin.

what a call. lisa: i knew that you love bitcoin secretly. you told me yesterday you would never talk bitcoin on the show. i knew it, it would come on a friday. let's get to the some of the other movers today. frankly, it is all. big-tech. i will recap some of the headlines. twitter saying they take some responsibility. facebook is saying, blame the person, not the platform, google trying to take that line as well. legislation may be coming out of this. . that is why you see columnists out of -- calm out of big-tech. let's go to the non-calls. a big selloff for this company yesterday with the boycotts in china. it is unclear what the fundamental change will be in terms of sales in china for nike. jp morgan -- you mentioned the financials. the fed yesterday saying that as of june 30, they can resume some

of the dividends and share buybacks. analysts say, it is coming. . finally, gamestop. you did bitcoin, i get to gamestop, a 50 2% gain yesterday. you recovered all the losses after the earnings report earlier this week. jonathan: and real. at least we can spend a bit of time talking about fundamentals and corporate strategy, taylor. taylor: no, never. jonathan: let's head back to this market. seven year supply. we had that durable auction. but it was in the context of a volatile week. treasuries exacerbated the move of yields higher. this week we were almost set up for it. the yields went up high, and then sevens happened and we were softer. robert tipp joins us. what on earth is going on in the

belly of the curve? i think that has to be a discussion we have to have a lot more. lisa: yes, because honestly, people had been expecting a decline in demand. so it is surprising that even given that, we saw that really weak bid to negroni, as tom called it. jonathan: robert, we had a technical issue for a couple of seconds, so i am not sure if you heard what we were discussing, the belly of the curve, what is happening that is spilling over to supply? the uncertainty? the delegate dance taking place at the moment. robert: i think it is just the uncertainty about the course of the fed and the bulk of issuance. the frequency with which the belly of the curve is getting hit, the 2s, 5s, 7s, every

month, treasury is pounding those parts of the yield curve. different parts of the curve are just taking turns getting walloped because of the macro backdrop. investors afraid to step up and evaluate what is going on in the world, and they feel like they are lying down on the tracks ahead of the inflation training that -- inflation train that everyone is expecting. i think that soft is like an inflection point of the curve for maximum yield volatility given the bulk of issuance. jonathan: is just an inflation story. is it a fed fund story, too, down the road? robert: they think the fed in some ways is getting a buy in. you look at the breakeven for the curve coming in at five

basis points, what it tells you is people are pricing in success for the feds in terms of achieving the inflation target. the market has incased a decent amount. the real yield is incredibly low. that reflects, in some respects, and expectation that the fed will remain hold, keep the fed funds rate incredibly low, and all the justification for fed rate hikes and all that, when it really is the inflation premium on the front end of the curve. if you look, the critical question is is the market usually right on that front? the answer is usually it is not. lisa: ok, the market is usually not right on that, the opportunity being buy bonds? is that what you are saying? robert: yeah. what happens -- the last time we

have seen a surge in breakevens like now, you are at a peak in nominal yields. that is really the challenge that investors are fleeing to all these micro themes, whether it is bitcoin or gamestop or looking at cyclicals for recovery, when the real variation in the portfolios is the macro return. the macro return profile of the bond market has improved. we are probably within months of a bull market in bonds. in the meantime, people are looking at the real yield versus the breakevens. breakevens are telling you, you are probably near a cyclical peak in yields. lisa: let's get a little more into what this means in terms of what you guys are doing with your investments. have you been valuing steadily, 10-year treasuries as they sold

off, and expecting yields to go lower? does this mean he should rotate into higher-quality credit? how are you, basing this? robert: the easier trade has been not on the right -- the rate side of the equation, but on the treasury side. that is why they remain the dominant driver and the easier source of all five at this point in the recovery. two years after the kind of arise in rates, the strong economy, even though spreads have come in tighter than average levels, it generally continues to perform well. the trickier side is the rate side. markets tend to go into this overdrive of extrapolating the rapid growth of the recovery stage into the indefinite future. that is what we are looking at right now.

the reason why it is difficult to make a call whether it is over -- in my last privilege of being in the bonus round -- i suggest your neck 20 basis points and rates will be higher and then lower, it is because of this stimulus hitting right now. money dropping into people's checking accounts, checks in the mail. that sets us up for the potential of another boom in the economic data over the next 30-60 days. jonathan: i wish tom keene was with us because that is a reference to real yield appearance on friday. if he is watching, i am happy that you made that reference. do you think that is why crude prices front-month punch above their weight, too? robert: i think that is your typical commodity markets phenomena, where short supply

constraint run first through the front of the market and only if the buying is persistent, what you see going into the back month of the curve. you see a short dislocation there. i think on the treasury curve, the one thing that is overpriced are those five-year chips. over the course of the next 12 to 24 months, you are likely to see a good return to risk premium. the biggest problem investors are going to have is sticking with the market. you will be surprised by the environment staying on hold -- the fed staying on hold. your macro markets are going to work for you including likely to outperform cash once we get to this burst of economic activity. jonathan: burst coming right up, maybe. robert tipp, pgim chief investment strategist. troy gayeski basically adding to the story we talked about, the

end result of the fed balance sheet. bitcoin is the way to play this coming into 2021. just some more thoughts behind a big call for the team over at skybridge. lisa: the key idea here is that it is more again to gold -- more akin to gold than it is to currency. the question is how will this not because the federal reserve to freeze the dollar? i am just trying to figure out what causes the next leg up? i think troy gayeski was not weighing in on that, he was saying, this is the trade the next 18 months, he wasn't necessarily talking, from what i heard, over the longer-term. jonathan: it has been the big question the past five

years. this particular currency, if we can call it that, commodity, bitcoin is ripping it. 80% year-to-date up so far. deborah fuller from the university of washington school of medicine will be joining us. looking forward to what she has to say about how things are developing in america. bond yields are up for basis points on 10s. heard on bloomberg radio and seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. there will not the any quick fixes to the blockage of the suez canal. bloomberg has learned it will take at least until next wednesday to dislodge the massive container ship that is blocking that waterway. it was expected to take only a few days. there is concern the blockage will disrupt global supply chains covering everything from oil to grain to cars. china is imposing antidumping taxes of 218% on australian

wine. it will last for five years. there are signs china is taking a harder line in its relationship with australia. beijing claims the wine is subsidized and sold under market value. president biden said the u.s. is in talks with mexico and expects to stem the flow of migrants. thousands of families from mexico and central america have traveled for the border in recent weeks, hoping to be allowed in families. are being expelled under a public order invoked by the trump administration, but mexico is unwilling to accept them. the number of coronavirus cases in the united states is rising again, reversing months of decline, and threatening another setback in the return to normal take. the seven day average rose to more than 57,000 on wednesday, the biggest increase in more than two months. the number of cases is still well below the peak in january.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> today i am setting a second goal. that is, we will, buy my 100th

day in office, have administered 200 million shots in people's arms. that's right, 200 shots in 100 days. jonathan: the president of the united states. the average right now is 2.5 million a day in america, the average over the last seven days. phenomenal work. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. into the bond market we go. yields are higher by for basis points. 157.24. i have to say, not a big week for economic data, not a big week for new revisions to forecast that i have seen, and yet we have had a really choppy week for the treasury market. lisa: perhaps something having to do with europe. the idea of going to lockdown, the idea of a third wave gaining steam did seem to have a material impact on the markets.

i get your point and i agree with it, there does seem to be this uncertainty that certainly whipped into markets this week after months of fomo, fear of missing out on the primary trade. jonathan: the university of washington school of medicine professor deborah fuller is joining us now. a real issue right now for policymakers is trying to understand how much of the vaccination to vaccinate before removing restrictions. what are you seeing in what is playing out in america at the moment? deborah: as the virus begins to search, you definitely need a surge in vaccination to combat that. . in terms of the percentage of individuals that need to be vaccinated,, traditionally if you look back at vaccination history, when you get close to 60% of the population vaccinated, you see a dramatic impact in reducing the incidence is in that particular region, in particular in disease and death caused by the virus.

jonathan: we haven't got the data yet, but i am watching texas to see how this plays out. governor abbott made the announcement drop the mask mandate at the beginning of march, and i think there was a lot of concern about that. but right now, looking at vaccinations in texas, 10 million doses given. 18% of the population in that state. even after they have dropped the mask mandate -- which of course, it doesn't necessarily mean that people stop wearing masks -- we have seen encouraging data about cases. the average cases over the last seven days or so rolling over. do you think we are at that point where we can drop some restrictions without seeing anything drastic off the back of it? deborah: the way to really get to that point as quickly as possible is combine both the vaccinations as well as continued mask-wearing and social distancing. certainly, dropping the vaccine will do that, it will just take longer to get there.

the culmination of the two things i really, if we want to get back to normal as quickly as possible, to continue to do a combination of those things together. lisa: when do you think we will not have to wear masks? when masks will not commonly be seen across the country? deborah: i think it will really play out in terms of watching a decline in the incidences of hospitalizations and deaths and the like. . we just really have to watch the data. once it gets to a certain threshold where you are just not seeing decline -- you are seeing decline in the incidences rather than the increase. in the last few days, those numbers are ticking up. once they go down further and further, that is when we can talk about lifting of restrictions. lisa: what is your biggest concern going forward, given the fact that we seem to be at a

pretty steady trajectory, there are already states opening up vaccinations to everyone over 18. it seems the u.s. is ahead of its perhaps modest schedule. deborah: the biggest concern eventually will come to a point where we are going to have the number of vaccines exceed demand. then we will be in a situation where we have to reach out to those people who are on the fence about taking the vaccine. we do need to have as high a percentage of the population as possible received the vaccine to be able to question the pandemic. jonathan: lisa has made this point and they want to build on it, how do you think it would be if the cdc just came out and gave stronger guidelines on what you can do if you have been vaccinated. and a second part of the question, do you think what is holding them back is they are worried about creating a two- tier society? deborah: may clarify a bit

further. jonathan: sure. if you think about the decisioning have got to make, as to how people have been vaccinated, if it is scientific you would look at the data and say, you can go around and do whatever you want, if the data back that up. or you can sit and say, only half the vaccination has been vaccinated, therefore, if we allow them to do whatever they want even if it is backed by science, it would create an ethical dilemma and create a two -tier society. so i am asking if this decision is backed by science or if it is purely an ethical one. deborah: a little bit of both. if you have some people vaccinated and some not vaccinated, vaccination, while it is protecting us from hospitalization and death, it is possible that people who are vaccinated could still carry the virus and transmit it to unvaccinated people. so it is driven by science in

terms of addicting everybody and ensuring everybody continues the same -- in terms of protecting everybody and ensuring everybody continues the best practices. you still want to protect those who are unvaccinated. jonathan: professor, we appreciate your time, deborah fuller of the university of washington school of medicine. lisa, some people in science have the answer to that question. some haven't. many others are thinking about it. it is a difficult one to address. lisa: we are basically in the biggest science experiment of the modern era. that is the biggest take away, the idea that policymakers are looking at scientific data that is quickly moving, trying to make decisions based on data that isn't comprehensive and conclusive, and policymakers have different approaches and political bends, which leads to this patchwork of different policies that leads to a lot of confusion and

skepticism that might be unfounded, jon. jonathan: and citizens who want to make decisions for themselves, lisa. that is where we are now. frustration right now is palpable. people don't want to be told by a politician what they can and cannot do. they want to get on with their lives. lisa: it is tricky. i don't want to go too hard on civil liberties, because on the one hand, it is about protecting people in restaurants and stores. if you say there is a mask mandate, one of the key questions for civil liberties is, if you want to go ahead and wear a mask, then wear our mask. but it is hard for a store that is saying "the customer is always right," to say, please put a mask on, if there isn't a mask mandate. the question you asked earlier is an important one -- will politicians relinquish some of this power when the pandemic is over? jonathan: will they let go? we will see. texas is an interesting case study right now.

equity markets are higher on the s&p, up 0.2%. yields are up 4 basis points. euro at a 117 handle. it finally broke this week. we had a move lower, euro-dollar 117.75. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the market is very much one-sided, optimistic about gdp growth. >> inflation, that has taken the steam out of markets. >> no doubt this biden stimulus will stimulate the economy. >> the case to consider tax increases, fiscal positions, is compelling. >> if we start to see inflation rising, that could be exported elsewhere. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance.