move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. manus: good morning from dubai, i am manus cranny back again with annmarie hordern, it is "daybreak: europe." traders brace for what is shaping up to be one of the most anticipated u.s. equity opens in months, after of wave of block trades rattled nerves. the massive container ship is

successfully re-floated in the suez canal. and angela merkel threatens to assert federal control over measures to stem a surge in virus cases. 6:00 a.m. in london and 7:00 a.m. in frankfurt, where the political nerves are jingling. it is a global -- indelibly stamped on our mind, we are warned of this, it is about concentration risk and leverage and whether this is a one-off isolated case or if there is more to come. he talks about the concentration risk to the market and whether this is a contained event. what happens next depends on remaining sales and related contagion channels. good morning, good to be back with you. that is whether we are one and done in 20 billion or if there are more processing risks -- cross asset risks to come.

annmarie: this will be a leader of more contagion as you say, it is interesting -- if you look at equity markets, it doesn't seem like investors are that unnerved. they might be more enthused about a massive block being blown up, this leveraged position. that means the position will be cleaner and less vulnerable. you can see the mixed picture, asia unnerved. s&p 500 softer, but of course you are at a record high on friday. brent down one point six -- 1.6%. we have the suez, that congestion likely to start easing. fresh lockdown fears antivirus fears in europe. and what does opec-plus do? let's get more to the block trade, with mark cudmore and

sing tomorrow. i was just -- mark cudmore in singapore. you maintain this is likely going to be more toward individual names and less contagion across the entire market. mark: that's the initial sign. it's a fascinating story, the size and scope of what we have seen so far in terms of these margin calls and the block sales have been incredible. i think there are still more strands to the story and we have to see what happens with some of the other banks involved, whether there are funds in similar positions that are forced to unwind. i think the story will run and run. but is it the turning point of more of a market contagion? i don't think so. the initial price action on friday has been positive. we saw the s&p 500 surged by 1.6% in the last hour of trading on friday to close at a fresh record. this is not a market showing much worry about this. there have been reports of more

block trades to come today and yet the market in asia is trading pretty positively so far. this is not a market that appears to be panicking. manus: no, but there are idiosyncratic names that have exposure to this trade. one of them, credit negative events, credit suisse, red headline mark could let's take -- mark. let's take these headlines. the u.s. hedge fund default, it plays to the point you made, this could be isolated risks on certain names with counterparty risk. credit suisse says the losses could be highly significant to first-quarter results. this is very reminiscent of a big losses that come through on balance sheets, that is credit suisse and nomura. you look at the story, and we understand morgan stanley still offering another 7% of viacom on the market. mark: as i said, there will be

certain names badly impacted. one of the things, the banks are less exposed in terms of the knock on effects, the capital is better, there have been a lot of systems to make sure the dominoes don't fall as easily. we know there will be crisis that blows up where we don't expect it and it is unlikely to come from the same source. last time, a subprime fund impacted the entire banking industry. this time i think it is less likely to come from that factor. i think certain names will be hit badly today. there will be other funds that will probably blow up before the end of this. you have to assume they have smaller exposure. will it turn into a widespread contagion event for marker -- markets? it could do. investors don't think so, they are enthusiastically buying into these names that are dipping. manus: let's see how it plays

out. our editor there in singapore. let's bring in a woman who has seen a storm or two in the markets. maria, we are seeing the headlines as they come through from credit suisse. nomura taking a hit this morning. when you see this kind of $20 billion margin call in an equity market around the world, what warning signs or issue does that send to you? good morning. maria: good morning. i have to say i am in mark's camp. i think we need more details and we need to see exactly what is happening. i think it is probably worth remembering that two months ago we talked about the market being overflowing with the quiddity and we were worried about all of

the money in the system causing inflation. we are talking about solid financial markets, the fed was talking about banks being strong enough to pay dividends. we are talking about a crisis but in a fairly stable system. that is my initial reaction, but obviously we need to know a little more about what exactly is happening and where the exposures are. annmarie: good morning. we also have lines from goldman sachs, they are saying they see immaterial losses, in terms of the unprecedented blockchain. marker also talked about in a blog post -- mark also talked about in a blog post that in the long term, we could see tightening leveraged liquidity, change regulation. do you foresee that as well? maria: potentially. changing regulation is something that is always hanging over the banks.

we have seen the impact there over the years. regulation in europe and the u.s. in the last 10 years has been tightening on banks. it has made them a lot safer. which is a great thing. i suppose the direction of travel in the last few years has been in terms of losing regulation. there's quite a lot of regulation there. it makes things more stable. as i said, i would probably take it maybe not as a really big negative yet. manus: we are always trying to assess the juxtaposition between the upgrades to growth, that sort of almost exhaustive marathon sprint to upgrade the growth forecast around the world, but then we looked at the bank of america slates over the weekend and you are seeing the weekly flow, 45 billion dollars into cash, the largest since

april 2020. folded into equities, the smallest since december 2020. are we running out of equity upside globally? maria: you know me, i am a perennially optimistic equity analyst. probably even more recently for -- recently. from the opening trade, it is clear, we are seeing a lot of earnings upgrades and economic upgrades when there is a lot of end up demand. those with financial conditions feel very accommodative. there is plenty of liquidity in the system. all of those things are positive. the first three months of the year has seen a lot of volatility. the market has dealt with it. the majority of stock indices are in the green, not all of

them but the majority in the green. we expect that to continue. annmarie: when you look at the cyclical trade, on top of that there is also the thought, inc. of america made a pretty compelling case, you want to start buying other things like real assets, real estate, even cars or one? -- or wine? especially where inflation rates might go this summer? maria: the big trade last year was the real interest rate completely collapsed and a lot of real assets have been supported, the big question is can that continue? a question mark for us, we think real interest rates have quite a lot already and maybe we are not going to see such a fast acceleration into interest rates anymore. that suggests quite a lot of those real trades may pop

forward for now, and we will risk at maybe a later time. i think we suspect a lot of it can be transitory, a big spike in the second half of this year, but then petering away in the normal course. annmarie: all right, you are staying with us. manus, there is a slew of news coming out this monday morning and we need to mention, the turkish central bank chief, the fourth and two years, said in april rate cut is not guaranteed. you see the dollar lower against the turkish lira, trading at 8.0714 this morning. let's get a recap of the first word news. laura: the quarrel over allegations of human rights

abuses in china is growing and beijing is bringing in retaliatory sanctions on individuals in the u.s. and canada. the fallout is also spreading to the corporate world in parts of china. landlords are closing h&m stores and have put out a statement expressing concern about forced labor. german chancellor angela merkel is saying she will assert federal control over the pandemic, under the country's federal system. the states have authority over health and safety rules, but she is looking to give berlin more powers. myanmar the deadliest we can since the coup on february 1. as of yesterday, at least 459 people have been killed the violence began. the military crackdown has drawn strong condemnation around the world. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

this is bloomberg. manus? annmarie? manus: thank you, i will pick it up here. a name in delhi printed across every risk manager -- indelibly printed across every risk manager on wall street. our checo's we understand had to take action on liquidating paid these are the names, we put it in the gtv live. a block trade frenzy in baidu, viacom, discovery, a host of names. the latest headlines are coming through from credit suisse and nomura, the latest from credit suisse, identifying they are exiting positions after a u.s. hedge fund default. that is the latest from credit suisse. a significant u.s. hedge fund default it on margin calls, and

that potentially has an impact on credit suisse's numbers for the first quarter. also lines coming through from nomura. significant losses, down 13%. we have a host of these names coming through on the back of the block trade. we cannot go on like this, those of the words of chancellor angela merkel as she seeks to use federal powers to take control of germany's covid fight. we have the story. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: this is "daybreak: europe." angela merkel is threatening to use federal law to reassert control over germany's fight against covid-19. in a tv interview, the chancellor expressed exasperation with the leaders of germany's 16 states. her words -- we meet every four

weeks and we keep going the same way as before. she called it a watershed moment and she is not done thinking about whether she will take over control. our guest is still with us. when you look at what is going on in places like germany and france, we are seeing levels similar to what we saw in the second wave in the fall, and potentially intensive care units at maximum capacity. is europe doing enough for you and when you look at the covid cases, is it a place you want to invest or hide from at the moment? marija: that's exactly right, europe is our least favorite region in regional allocation and a lot of it stems from kind of the slow economic reopening, very slow vaccination of the country. which we are already seeing the earnings prospect for local companies could we are seeing --

companies. we are seeing that countries with decisive management have done better. thinking back to how china was proactive with the lockdown in getting control of the situation quickly. we have seen more recently in america and britain, being very decisive in the vaccination program. that has really helped kind of speed up the reopening trade. potentially that is where europe is lagging behind. there is a lot of distrust, a lot of problems with vaccinations, astrazeneca pushed and pulled in different directions. so something very coordinated will be something, like a positive factor to look for europe. at this moment, it is our least favorite region. manus: if europe is your least favorite region, where is your

most favorite region? marija: we are liking more cyclical plays, so we still like emerging markets, particularly that america, we like japan. we are keeping -- it has been our favorite region for a long time and still profitable. kind of key ideas for our portfolio is cyclicalality -- cyclicality. annmarie: we have to ask about what is going on with the suez, the ship is getting a reef loading and potentially the congestion will ease up quicker than expected. how does that higher transportation cost, the supply chain worries we have seen out of the suez, does that cross your mind when you are looking at glass of -- assets globally?

marija: yes, it's kind of been in our thoughts. semiconductor shortages specifically. we are seeing an increasing number of companies talking about not enough semiconductors. it stretches across many industries. not only communications, not only technology companies bid -- companies. many are struggling. semiconductors is a very specific case that is very central to a lot of production activities. it still underlines this system that has been so successful over the decades and was strained during covid and recovery time. we are quite concerned about it. manus: when it comes to your thoughts on commodities, you talk about -- love the

exclamation mark -- we want to get to the dividend narrative you put forward. it's been a while since i have banged the dividend drum. are you adding up with the dividend narrative? marija: the exclamation mark is for commodities. the idea of dividends came across from our preference for materials over energy, metals over oil. energy companies who are usually known to be the highest dividend players in the industry, and now we are seeing material companies expected to pay more dividends than energy, which i found amusing. but there are a lot of other reasons to like material stocks over energy. first and foremost, oversupply

of oil markets does concern us. we are seeing a tight supply in material spaces, a key, fundamental reason why metal prices should overtake the increase in oil prices. that is a key, fundamental reason for but we do like energy -- sorry, we like material fundamentals as well. an interesting rigell to that story. manus: -- an interesting wrinkle to that story. manus: all right, owner of the exclamation mark. a quick recap, one-stop very much in play in the european market open, credit suisse. they are in the process of exiting positions, they have not clarified anything else. they are saying they could have a loss that could be significant in the first quarter. they say the actions they are taking are because of a u.s.-based hedge fund default

that could have a material impact on their numbers. it is premature to exactly quantify the size of the lost bit we keep an eye on credit suisse, we are all across these lines as they come through. much more on your really addition of "daybreak: europe." this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "daybreak: europe" with manus cranny in dubai and andrea horton -- annmarie hordern in london. this is a tweet from the maritime services this morning. the massive cargo ship blocking the suez canal for nearly a week seems to have been partially freed. we have been tracking the story across the time zones. the latest, yousef, free but

not racing anywhere. yousef: there was a gargantuan effort to get this thing moving. 20,000 cubic feet out of the area to loosen this thing and when i came into the office around 5:00 a.m. dubai local time, i noticed they had brought in a couple more tugboats, probably about seven pushing and pulling at different angles around this behemoth ship. then it started to move and i was like wait a minute, they are making meaningful progress, and within 30 minutes, the reports started to come in that they had indeed been able to unlock it a little from its position and pull it more toward the eastern part of the canal. what we need to watch out for is how quickly they will be able to make a formal assessment of any potential canal or vessel damage.

the last thing you need now that it is refloated is and it could take two to three days to carefully navigate the ship out of the canal. the other thing to look out for is once it is running again, what timeline are we looking at? 450 ships are stuck in a logjam, you assume two or three ships per hour, it could take eight to 10 days to clear the backlog. a massively important step for the egyptian government, they have been under a lot of pressure and a lot of reports were suggesting they had started reaching out to foreign allies, including saudi arabia and the united states for more assistance. this helps with wettability and also with revenues, because it is an earner of hard currency. annmarie: thank you for that recap on the suez canal. we also need to recap what is going on with the massive margin call, credit suisse coming out this morning saying it may face

a significant loss in the first quarter related to the bank exiting position relating to a hedge fund in the u.s. more next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning, from london i am annmarie hordern with manus cranny in dubai. traders brace for what is shaping up to be one of the most anticipated u.s. equity opens and months after a wave of a block trades battle investors worldwide. and the massive container ship is it successfully refloated in the suez canal.

oil lurches lower on the news. plus, angela merkel threatens to assert federal control over measures to stem a surge in coronavirus cases. manus, good morning to you. that friday margin call, it is the morning after, we are seeing angst around the world coming out and saying what it means for them, credit suisse one of the first ones, talking about the fact it will see potential significant losses from a hedge fund in the united states, did not name names, no more also saying they would have significant -- nomura also saying they would have significant losses. manus: a single name will be printed on people's minds today, probably like it was in 2008 around the time of lehman's. we are suggesting at the moment these are perhaps contained items of risk, the $20 billion margin call, will it flush

through the system or have a wider reverberation across assets? in other words, you have to throw the baby out with the bathwater. this is a warning, we understand the sources we have spoken to, saying significant loss from an unnamed u.s. client relating to the trade of our che goes -- the trade. this goes from japan to credit suisse to u.s. wall street. cash up at the close on friday night. s&p 500 futures this morning. let's have a look at the market board. asian stocks up 1/8 of 1%. citigroup says buy china tech. -- since we started the show, we were down a quarter of a percent, now down three quarters of 1%. information is flowing through from credit suisse and nomura.

dollar the haven of choice and oil lower on the tentative releasing of the suez canal. now it just needs to move. annmarie: yes, a lot of congestion up in the suez canal. the ship successfully refloated. it is not racing anywhere quickly. here is a tweet from the maritime services provider, the massive cargo ship blocking the suez canal for nearly a week seems to have been partially freed. it was -- since it came -- became stuck, 400 ships have been delayed. there are no details when the ship will be set back its course but sick of again steps this morning. joining us is our guest from an international shipping company that focuses on transporting oil by c. a very good morning to you. what do you make of this initial

refloat? hugo: it is a little earlier than we expected. it seemed the ship was stuck on both ends and they have been able to move it that it is early to see when it will be cleared. it is one thing to refloated the ship, it is another thing to clear the canal for traffic. manus: good morning to you. if it is freed, how quickly do you think -- and obviously this is speculative -- we have 450 ships act up -- backed up. how long does it take to unclog that in the suez canal? hugo: tentative timeline, probably two weeks, because the canal was pretty much at full capacity. you need understand whatever has been team related so for -- whatever has been accumulated so

far will take time to clear, so two or three weeks in my opinion. annmarie: we are getting some headlines, egypt aiming to allow ships to cross the suez canal again on monday. supertankers thus far have been unaffected, will that say the same now that we see the canal could open up? hugo: they will not be totally unaffected, they will move marginally up, but in the tanker market we were at overcapacity. this is about 11% or 12% of the worldwide oil traffic that goes through the canal, -- at any other point when the supplies are more constrained. manus: for supertankers, the rates, how do you think pricing -- will we see structural consequences in terms of pricing? hugo: no, as i mentioned, the

rates were subdued and we were trading below breakeven, that is due to the fact that we have lost 5 million barrels per day of consumption due to coronavirus restrictions. this incident on the suez canal is unlikely to affect massively the rates. we have seen already last week some marginal movements up. we are likely to see that again this week that i don't believe it will bring the rates to a phenomenal level like last year, for instance. annmarie: we are talking about rates, but even more so, how has this impacted your business directly? hugo: obviously we had a couple of ships that were about to take the canal, so we have rerouted them. a number of ships made that decision. it's always a question of you don't know when it will be free,

and when it is free, you don't know if the traffic will be lighter. making the decision to take seven to eight or even nine more days to go around africa to much wherever you want to go, china in one direction or europe in the other, it is a tough decision. but once you are on u-turn. you are shrinking the global

capacity when you do that, and that is something we will feel for many days to compute -- days took,. especially in sectors worse -- sectors were supply was already constrained. people need to understand it is up to 50% of the worldwide maritime traffic -- 15% of the worldwide maritime traffic. it could complete the distributor supply chain. -- disturbed your supply chain. manus: the percentages, the input and output. the wto chief economist says we are overestimating the dangers, it is a great photo activity -- opportunity but i would not get excited about trade. this one event, one ship closed that scale of trade around the world. will there be a longer-lasting consequence where people look at alternatives to suez? seriously? hugo: no. there are two or three points around the world, the suez canal, panama canal, rubble he the strait of hormuz for crude oil. -- panama canal, probably the strait of hormuz for crude oil. what can you do? people will continue to use the suez canal.

there may be additional work to widen it in the future. they have done major work a few years back, the same troop for the panama canal -- the same was true for the panama canal. you have one accident every so many years, it is not every day. it is true, however, the ships are becoming larger and larger, and with the canal, it is more and more difficult to navigate through it. we are talking about a bit that is particularly narrow for a relatively short distance compared to the overall length of the canal. manus: as you say, it may invoke some infrastructure upgrades, but it is one of those one-off events been hugo, thank you so much. coming up, the persian gulf

starts to pump close to 20 million barrels of oil per day so abu dhabi steps in pure -- steps in. it is the region's main oil benchmark. our interview, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." breaking news headline coming across the bloomberg terminal, on the suez canal, we understand it has been refloated, 20,000 tons of earth has been removed, the ship has been refloated and maneuvers continue through the day. as we get more news on that, that is the latest red headline on the bloomberg terminal. to abu dhabi, a futures contract in the oil markets, an aggressive shift some would say for the emirate, hoping to

change how one fits of the world's crude is priced. pumping 21 million barrels per day and abu dhabi wants a piece. i spoke exclusively about the plan with the director of marketing, sales and trading. >> i believe the demand has always been there, since the inception it has had a long list of customers, over 60 customers in 30 countries who use us as a key part of their crude diet and refined products production. as such, this is another major milestone, in providing them tools to manage the risk and hedge their price exposures. we believe the contract has the underlying fundamentals to ensure the liquidity required. manus: have you had commitment

from the iraqis, from the saudis , kuwaitis, to use the futures contract? >> the whole idea is to make sure the murban is a globally, freely traded commodity, and as such, it allows everybody around the world to be able to utilize it for either pricing or for managing their customer. as such, we are beastly have a stellar partnership with nine major companies, but at the same time, from the east, where most of this crude is usually used, we have thailand, the chinese, japan, as well as a number that have been signed, in the u.s. and also in the east. manus: give me something to hang my hoop on. what kind of volume, what kind

of forward curve can we expect to develop in 2021? >> currently obviously we have an export of about one million barrels per day, and that provides a lot of liquidity. just comparing that for example to the underlying liquidity of brent, brent has about 800,000 barrels of production. it is a mix of different grades. from the liquidity perspective, or the physical underlying asset, it is -- how will the nonphysical players contribute to this? we have contracts that are cash settled in addition to the murban contract that will provide additional liquidity that allows us to hedge the spreads between wti and brent, brent and murban and so on. manus: you have committed to the contract on a daily basis.

what the market and what i am trying to reconcile is, adnoc as a result of the uae opec" a has fundamentally got a cap on production. how do you guarantee to the market there is no risk of supply interruption from your side? >> obviously adnoc has always been a reliable energy supplier and it is a key part of our business that we continue to supply our customer based on our commitments. we do that through a number of initiatives, one of which, and the most prominent will be to ensure the supply on the export data, the supply from our local and international storages. keep in mind, the ownership also of murban lies with seven partners, bp, total, japanese as well as korea. from that perspective, there is significant storage locally and internationally.

manus: the adnoc director of marketing, sales and trading joining us on the launch of the murban contract to get more contacts. checking in, you have about 5000 contracts trading through the exchange at the moment. 2000 on the front contract point. will coming back -- oil coming back this morning because of the unblocking of the suez canal. the exchange, a home for futures for oil and other commodities. thank you for joining us this morning. i mentioned volume because that is how i judge you, 2000 contracts on the front. brent, 30,000. how quickly can you scale up? how -- what is your ambition? good morning. >> we think this is the success

so far and we have trading owing out to october. -- going out to october. a lot of participants are watching the market. we think it is a success so far. in terms of scaling up, it does take time for these things to build, but where we are, half a day, we are very pleased. annmarie: where do you expect the strongest demand for this contract to come from? stuart: from a physical market perspective, the bulk of the murban crude goes to asia, there are about 60 refineries across countries in southeast asia. from a physical market perspective, that's where you -- where we expect demand to come from. in terms of fugue or market trading, we are seeing more traditional players, oil companies in the markets. a number of financial players that are active in brent and

other futures contracts entering the markets. we are seeing increasing interest from those asian refineries in hedging and trading. this is one of the things murban can bring to those players as well, the opportunity to participate in the process for murban and use the futures contract to hedge forward prices. manus: we caught up with the men running the operation at adnoc. the success of the contract is absolutely going to be linked to whether aramco is on board, the iraqis and kuwaitis. are they ready to embrace murban ? >> we have greater aspirations for this contract and we are interested in speaking to other national oil countries put our focus right now is to get it live in the current guys. -- guise.

then those conversations make progress. annmarie: are you worried about this diluting brent? stuart: no, the oil market trade is a matrix of pricing anyway, this just adds another metric. we think it just adds to the broader picture, particularly with crude going to asia. manus: a busy year for oil. as quarter one draws to a close, what has volume one business been on the exchange overall? people talk about a super cycle, is that playing out? stuart: we are seeing a strong first quarter. a lot of volatility in the market could positivity -- in the markets. positivity as we exit from covid lockdown. i remain optimistic we will come through that. we are seeing increased demand and additional volatility in the

markets and strong volume in futures. annmarie: we have to ask about what global plats did, they were announcing they would get rid of the dated brent. what is the view on that? stuart: one of the strengths of the brent market over the last 30 years has been the ability to evolve as the market evolved. there has been brakes to the benchmark, changes to the contract, the delivery cycle. we are confident the benchmark will continue to evolve. the key thing is that the market place get together and identify the right way forward with brent as the benchmark and i have no doubt we will get there. annmarie: stuart williams, thank you for joining us. we have a new oil contract, murban, hitting the markets

today. coming up, bite and set to lay out plans for the economic recovery plan. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: just over an hour away from the start of european equity trading. these are the events you should be looking out for this week. england begins the next stage of its lockdown easing, to households of groups up to six people able to meet outside, and on wednesday, joe biden expected to lay out more details of an economic recovery package. the u.s. president plans to spend more than $3 trillion in infrastructure on the heels of a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, and education set to dominate the political agenda in the coming months. manus: on wednesday, the wto is

scheduled to issue is annual trade growth forecast. what will the upgrade be? the yearly update will come after a sharp upside of -- in 2020. and opec and allies will hold their meeting. they are unlikely to raise quotas. i think when you look at the brent contract this morning, the murban contract, both of those trading on the suez canal, the ship refloated. we move from one almost myopia, the suez canal, to this more substantial story. the biggest margin call in the history of all con -- all-time pewter not mine, not minded the reverberations of the $20 billion market call. it is sweeping. annmarie: it certainly is, from credit suisse, nomura, lines out of goldman sachs. what strikes me, nomura said

they estimate the claim against the client may change depending on unwinding. how much legs are left in the story and how much could we see? manus: if you look at new more, the most since -- no more, they have -- if you look at nomura, they have fallen the most in a while. also the potential credit outcome. it is with credit suisse i think some of the perhaps most important lines are coming through. they haven't named the source of the angst but they are in the process of exiting position from the fund they say has failed and this could materially impact q1. annmarie: nomura is not naming directly but people close to it say it is tied to the greek word

for leader. that does it for us. next, the european open. stay with bloomberg this morning.

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>> good morning, welcome to the european open. i am anna edwards live in london, mark cudmore joins me in singapore to take us through the market action this hour. the cash trade is less than an hour away and hear your top headlines. it is shaking up to be one of the most anticipated u.s. equity opens in months after a wave of lock trades rattled investors worldwide.