no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor with aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. >> good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters. i'm manus cranny. annmarie hordern alongside me. it is daybreak europe. block trades blow up. stocks at the center of the $24 billion selloff come under pressure. breaking it silence and we bring you the latest. equities fluctuated as investors weigh the risk of further drama from the block shock.

rapid progress in the u.s. vaccine rollout. and the boat afloat movement resumes on the suez canal. it's finally freed but could there be a lasting aftershock to global trade? just gone 9:00 a.m. in dubai, 6:00 a.m. in london. good day to you. the affair is a series of hear no evil, see no evil, ask no questions. if you didn't ask enough questions of your client, what size is that leverage then you perhaps some questions to seriously answer to the risk committee. good morning, annmarie. annmarie: good morning. what is so stunning about this is this jp morgan note saying we could incur losses -- the industry could incur losses of $2.5 billion to $5 billion depending on how hard it will come and how hard the industry

will liquidate holdings. my big question alongside of what you are saying is ask no questions -- if this family office firm was able to amass leverage of five to seven times, who else was following a similar playbook? is this going to be more stories of rk ghosts unwinding? are we going to see similar in other hedge funds or family firms? manus: we also understand there was emergency calls for goldman sachs, credit suisse was the initiator. in the finest tradition of the breakdown of communication of who could build on that position first and that is what caused the boat quite literally to sink on this trade. this is about looking after yourself, your risk, your position first and foremost. and we understand a number of

firms got upset. how are the markets? annmarie: ft had a great quote saying it was like a game of chicken. it is a bit of a tug-of-war in terms of what the market cares about. is it worried about the fallout from archegos amidst optimistic news with the u.s. and vaccine rollout? euro stocks, the upside. the market is not quite worried about the contagion. look at the bond market, we see that bond market continued. it is not just the u.s. but you look across wb on your terminal. so that is continuing and we are nearly there this weekend. the dollar index is unchanged this morning but headed towards its best quarter in a year. manus, let's get back to our top story. all plans are being discussed, archegos breaking its silence. the stock center of a 24 billion

tell the pressure off came under pressure. jp morgan estimates the industry could lose as much as $5 billion from the unwinding of positions. joining us to discuss this is dani burger. dani, do we know what set off the winding of these positions in the first place? start from square one. dani: one of the wound positions that suffered a lot -- for example, it could be viacom which fell significantly. what has come out since then, as you guys mentioned -- look, were really in a panicked state. the call they organize to say don't move yet, don't upset the market, let's figure out how to do this in an orderly fashion. when you have someone like goldman breaking the ranks, doing these huge block trades during market hours, if you talk to anybody who does these type of things, you don't want to do it when it will have the biggest impact on the market. the fact goldman was so hurried, the fact everyone was try to catch up afterwards, it is really every bank for

themselves, trying to get rid of these positions. manus: yes, i suppose it brings the question of what is honor in communication? do we understand there is more to come? $5 billion to $10 billion, scale up leverage, $50 billion. are we liquidated? dani: i don't think we are done. there have even been some estimates that perhaps exposure was as much as $100 billion. the fact banks have to sell into this market when these stocks have already moved, they are facing potentially a big loss, you might see more of a dribble come out of these block trades, so it will take a while before the selling is finally done. annmarie: we have seen this happen before in the financial markets and there's always questions about what happens next. is there going to be more scrutiny, regulation? what is the word on the street? dani: to be clear, a swap trade are not controversial. they are used all the time. you are essentially having the bank take on the exposure for

you, pay that exposure for you and you are paying a fee. this is also not ltcm. this is not a big leverage macro position that would have any huge contagion effect. these are very concentrated. what is controversial is if archegos was using these swaps in order to stir up regulations in terms of having to report that positions, the fact it was so leveraged and what kind of hedges they had. if they are hedging using plain-vanilla indexes, perhaps that is not sufficient enough. those are the questions that are going to be asked as well as a family offices should report more with the sec, if they should face more scrutiny especially if they are the size. manus: that raises the much bigger question, do prime brokerages need to have exposure? thank you very much. many questions to be answered. we have learned some of them in 200 but8, but obviously not.

she's the head of research for europe and america at standard chartered. sarah, good day to you. the consequence of archegos, we won't know as the investigation continues. what is the risk that begins to be less in the system? is that a risk? sarah: it is a risk. i think at the moment, we are in a reasonably benign situation where markets are comfortable. the fed is doing the right thing. the economies have good potential in the coming months with vaccination programs really starting to take effect now. inflation, it will be rising but overall, the outlook seems cooperative. the whole shock to the system, especially if we are not sure exactly how pervasive it will be. this is the thing that starts to

unnerve markets. at the moment, we are in a reasonably -- annmarie: sarah? i think we might have lost sarah hewin from standard chartered. manus: no, she is there. you go, annmarie. annmarie: sorry, maybe i only lost you. 2021, we are still dealing with virtual interviews. if archegos was overleveraged by, some are saying more than five times, do you start to us -- assume others are using a similar playbook? sarah: that's the big question, isn't it? the fundamental thing is when people are uncertain about what kinds of numbers. we've had this playbook before and it is the uncertainty that

ultimately starts to erode confidence in the market. i think these next few days will be supremely important when it comes down to finding out what the solution will be. manus: the other question i have for you is a much bigger macro question about leverage. we showed a chart at the start of the show. the total margins on the s&p 500 over $800 billion. i mentioned 2008. ok, the market has exploded by three times the size, but we are nowhere near at peak in leverage according to bank of america. would you concur with that? is there any flashing indicator on leverage in this market or across the market that you are concerned about? sarah: i think it's something we are keeping a very close eye on. for us, it's more of a question

of where is the leverage globally? we know some economies and some sectors, so there's a very high degree of leverage. we are not looking for financing conditions to stop anytime soon but if and when that happens, that would start to raise more concerns. obviously, the way we are expecting the rollout, we see strong demand, good market conditions. businesses still with -- in this environment where there is stimulus in the system. that means that the leveraged positions at the moment are manageable. where that changes -- where demand drops off or financial

conditions tightening without warning. there are certainly some warning signs to look out for. at the moment, we are in a reasonably benign situation. annmarie: sarah hewin stays with us this morning. let's get a recap of the other news you need to know. the first word news with laura wright. laura: prime minister boris johnson says the u.k. is on track to entirely lift pandemic restrictions over the next three months. he is hopeful the country can avoid another lockdown with infection rates at the lowest in six months. the prime minister says the main risk is a new vaccine resistant strain emerging. after almost a week, ships are finally moving in the suez canal again. the ever given has been freed, clearing the way for traffic to resume. authorities expect operations to resume to normal within days. the suez canal is responsible

for 12% of global trade and more than one million barrels of oil a day. speaking out. he says he endured retaliation, demotion and even surveillance of his family after questioning the integrity of the product. >> i have seen the nissan security department behave in egregious matters in terms of following, surveilling. this is a car company, not the kgb. laura: you can watch that full interview online at bloomberg quicktake. nissan contests the claims. a spokesperson says it is unable to comment further. global news 24 hours a day on their and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

this is bloomberg. manus, annmarie? manus: thanks. a little more -- coming up on the show, joe biden says 90% of american adults will be eligible for a covid shot by april 19. this comes as senior officials warn on infection rates. the details on bloomberg. ♪

>> i'm going to reflect on the current feeling i have of impending doom. we have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential of where we are and so much reason for hope.

pres. biden: the war against covid-19 is far from won. this is deadly serious. we share the sentiment of dr. belinsky, they had of the cdc. the cdc expressed earlier today this is not the time to lessen our efforts. annmarie: the head of the cdc and president biden on the risks of another wave of coronavirus infections in the u.s. sarah hewin is still with us. we have some optimism when it comes to the vaccinations. 90% in about three weeks. when do those shots in arms translate to a labor market recovery? sarah: we are expecting to see it as soon as this friday. we're already expecting to have around three quarters of a million jobs added to the jobs market for march. we think that over the coming

months, we will be seeing between 600000 and 800,000 a month. you will get more people spending on entertainment, those sectors, travel, transport. retail. all huge employers. as long as the vaccination rollout proceeds and the economies continue to open up, there is very big job skills on the horizon. of course, the warnings we had last night to remind us -- there's always the risk that can really slow things down. we find that cases accelerate and that delays the opening of the economy. we are at a pivotal point at the

moment for the u.s. economy. manus: we have these moments of rush of blood. just to build on the narrative, you look at the american airlines chart. 60% of where they were in 2019, 90% is what they are looking at in the back quarter of this year. this is for martin malone. how did this reopening narrative , the booking of planes, the rehiring of people, the bringing back of planes, the pce, where will be top out and when on this sort of vaccine and recovery? the double "v" narrative we are experiencing. sarah: well, we have seen very strong spending on global goods. there has been a 20% increase since the start of the pandemic.

services, we are still around 10% below in terms of services spending. there's a big boost in spending on services and with think that will be helped not just by the package by biden earlier this month but also the pent-up savings come about $2 trillion worth of savings that households have been forced to accumulate. and what does that mean for inflation? we think the services sector inflation starts to pick up as well. we see inflation moving roughly about 2% in the coming months and expect into .5% for full inflation over the course of the year. annmarie: do you suggest putting on inflation hedges then?

sarah: no, we're not expecting we are going to go to 2.5% to 3% and above. the 2.5 percent second-quarter forecast is really the peak we have seen for this year. you have prices falling in march, april and may of last year. although, there are some underpinnings to inflation, we probably agree with the fed that inflation, the spike in inflation will return to qe and we see it coming back down towards 2%, 2.5% later this year. and staying around that level over the next couple of use. the fact is you still have certain agree of -- in the economy with the labor market not at full employment, we think. manus: yeah, we will see -- the numbers keep rolling out like we

see with american airlines. the full employment story begins to look a lot more double. sarah, thank you for joining us, from standard chartered head of research. coming up, it's finally on the move. the ship blocking the suez has now been freed. we bring you the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is going to take some time for everything to rebalance itself out and that will affect rates going forward. you have essentially a week and the ships going down past south africa's and that is adding a week or so onto the journey.

this ripple through the supply chain, we will feel for some time to come, i feel. >> that was the international chamber shipping secretary-general, guy platten. things are finally on the move in the suez canal. the giant ever given has dislodged and traffic is beginning to resume. yousef joins us. the traffic jam, 400 ships all blowing the warns. how quickly will they get through? yousef: fascinating images that we got, seeing this 400 meter behemoth of a ship getting finally moved from its position. you have these tugboats leading the way. the maps indicate on the terminal that we already have as many as three ships in the canal so activity is beginning to ramp up. the chairman of the suez canal authority in the press conference late yesterday said he expects activity to return to normal in about four days. he underscored the canal is

capable of handling ships of that size. but the wide ramifications for the supply chain are still very much something to be looked at because ultimately, it will take much longer than two or three days for that backlog and that domino effect to start coming around again. guys? annmarie: so, the canal is finally reopened, traffic is resuming, but of course we are going to see the blame game. who is everyone focusing on? whose fault is this? yousef: the protocol dictates every time a ship come through the canal that there is a pilot that is handed over, per se, to the ship itself. you have the captain of the ship and he is guided by a person of the suez canal authority who has experience on how to navigate the canal with different sizes of ships and weather conditions. initially, the thinking was this could have been a weather problem. again, there were ships of

similar size that have dealt with similar whether in the past, so that theory kind of lost traction quite quickly. this has never happened in about 40 years. the focus now turns to the captain of the ship and to the pilots on board. we understand for the owners of the ship, they have now hired a legal team further captain -- for their captain. the chairman of the suez canal authority pointed out that is something they will look at, as part of part of their wider investigation. it will not be the human component, but also the technical part. remember, there were some questions about the operational status of the ship itself at the time it went off course. guys? annmarie: daybreak middle east anchor yousef gamal el-din in dubai. thank you for joining us. yousef talked about at the end the technical question. i also have to think these chips are so much larger than they used to be and at some point,

our canals going to have to start to expand or will they go back to making the ships smaller? it does not sound like this is a one-off. potentially this could happen again. manus: does not sound like the ships will get any smaller either. it's a very interesting political and geopolitical ramification for our region because there are pipelines alongside the canal that carry the oil. to a certain extent, that was the ameliorating factor for the oil markets. this raises a much bigger question about israel, the uae and bahrain. the abraham accords. what will this mean for infrastructure in the region? could there be more laid across from israel to saudi arabia that circumvent the need for saudi arabia -- for the canal? what else do we have stacked for this tuesday edition? annmarie: also circumvent the fact that some ships had to go around the southern tip of africa. just ahead, all plans being discussed, according to archegos as it breaks it silence.

that story, more details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in london, i'm annmarie hordern with manus cranny live from dubai. block trade blowup. stocks at the center of the $24 billion selloff come under pressure and archegos breaks it silence. we bring you the latest. equities fluctuate as investors weigh the risk of further drama the block stock. rapid progress on the u.s. on

the vaccine rollout. the boat's afloat. movement resumes on the suez canal after the ever given is finally freed, but could there be lasting aftershocks to global trade? manus, good morning to you. 6:30 a.m. in the city of london, 7:30 a.m. across the continent. there is one story that will continually dominate the news agenda and that is going on with the block trade from archegos. and the jp morgan note that stands out. about $2.5 billion to $5 billion is what the industry losses could incur, in the question is if archegos is doing this, who else was? manus: you are talking about the tracking trade. for me, it is about the coalescing of the risk management last week between wall street and credit suisse, morgan stanley along with goldman sachs, trying to contain the situation. they went, we are liquidating.

do you need to share more party risk? did they all know the signs of the leverage? did they all know the quality of the book they were holding? and did archegos disclose the leverage to each bank? most unlikely. that for me is the root of this. they tried to contain it last week and with every man, woman and risk manager for themselves, quite literally. annmarie: ft put it, it is a game of chicken. you've got to think at some point archegos was blocked -- blacklisted on: sax -- on goldman sachs. a lot of questions remain that a lot of people, especially the sec wants answers. manus: absolutely. the question is was the deleveraging done? the s&p 500 along with asian stocks. trying to find destabilization in equities. victory in the vaccine rollout. joe biden says 90% of americans,

adults will be offered a vaccine by april 19. that reopening narrative is the alpha and underpinning of all equity stories to the asian market, finding and underpinning. the bond market is the scene of repricing in the reopening trade. we are seeing yields rise again this morning. yes, there's a warning from the cdc in terms of what's going on with covid in the u.s. bonds have had the worst quarter since the 1980's. yes, i was around in the 1980's. what is pc topping off at 2.5%. dollar-yen -- yen at a one year low. the dollar is at a one year high. good to hear you laugh. annmarie: somebody was partying in the 1980's. i certainly was not. manus: i can assure you there are some fantastic clubs. let's talk about stocks. stocks that rocked and markets that dropped.

$24 billion selloff came under pressure. it did damage to hedge funds and counterparty risk. here is how some of the bloomberg guests reacted. >> incidents like this can shatter confidence. >> it will take some time for the bodies to float to the surface, for these things to percolate. >> i think this is very specific, related to one set of positions. >> we don't feel we are at an inflection point at this stage. >> we are not seeing the kind of crazy activity we saw on friday. >> these events, and we've had them before. >> think this will be over in a couple of days. >> i will stay at of this. >> some pretty good buys to be made on friday. >> we see these banks de-risking and we should take a peek -- page out of the book. >> you have to keep an ion more of this to come. >> it is way too early to give a full all clear. annmarie: now all plans are being discussed. that is what archegos broke it

silence on the block trade saga. jp morgan estimates the industry could lose as much as $5 billion from the unwinding of positions. dani burger joins us now with more. what's the state now in terms of the banks trying to unwind these positions? dani: i think this is likely going to take a while because we are learning how massive the exposure was. anywhere from $50 billion to $100 billion of the estimates we've heard. if you want goldman sachs, the bank to rush out the door in a hurry, and why else would you put these block trades out in such a public, on exchange, during market hours like goldman did unless they are in a hurry? now all these stocks have moved pretty significantly so you have to imagine if you are trying to offload them, you would be doing so at a loss. it is significant that goldman sources have been telling their clients than any sort of impact they are seeing is immaterial. they were able to collateralize some of these exposures and not really see too much of an

impact. now it is every bank for themselves, as you said, manus. manus: yes. the question is, what else is under the hood? you got to hand it to some of the guests. the bodies perhaps have not all floated to the surface. will we see an increased scrutiny and regulation? i've got one regular commentator telling me this is blockchain's moment. dani: i think to some degree. we have to be clear what this is and what this isn't. this is not lpcm. these were not big macro positions that have a huge contagion effect. these were really concentrated in these individual stocks. i think that regard, the scrutiny should not be there, nor the leverage picture itself. leverage, nor people use it all the time, but perhaps the issue is if you are using leveragein more volatile and concentrated positions as this was. at the same time, swaps are

normal so the idea is that a bank pays you what these stocks are doing, plus any dividends and you pay them a fee. of course, the concern is, again, that the leverage was concentrated. it was big. estimates as much as five times or higher. at the same time, this was a family office so its reporting necessities to the sec are pretty slim. it does not have to register as an investment advisor, despite the fact archegos was just as big, if not bigger than many hedge funds. do family offices need to start reporting more? that could be one of the outcomes of this whole saga. annmarie: it will be drawing a lot of attention on capitol hill. thanks to dani burger. joining us now is gary, the ceo of a global cio. gary, let's start with what dani left off in terms of leverage in the system. do you think there's too much leverage in the system? are other hedge funds were

family firms playing similar playbooks like what we are seeing at archegos? gary: it cannot be a one-off. there must be more out there. the system is to leverage but with the federal reserve cutting interest rates close to zero and saying they will stay there for years to come, this is the behaviors that get encouraged. the only way you can stop it is you got to have regulators and central bankers controlling it, but at the moment, it is a free-for-all. manus: good to see you this morning. do you think family offices do and should be made to disclose more or at least may be tell their banks and brokerages what kind of risk they've got? gary: i think it is the banks should not be given this amount of leverage. if you've got proper risk management, you would not have taken it to this degree. things happen and we saw viacom's share price fall 50%. that is a big company. the scale of the fall in share price precipitated all of this

and you've got to realize the risk and happen. it clearly worked and that is why these banks are wearing such losses to were three days later. annmarie: right now, what do you think of the stock that we have seen this massive block trading in? are they potentially a buy if you're interested in the long-term of some of these media companies? gary: yes, i do. not individual companies but it's a basket. there's a big investor out there who believes these were the best companies in the world for him at that moment in time. i don't think the market would necessarily reduce a. i would say some of those share prices have gotten exaggerated. clearly, people are using leverage. you could push share prices up too quickly. i think as a basket come i think you should be looking at this as a buying entry point rather than saying something profoundly wrong with those companies. manus: from our reporting and the people that our reporting

team spoke to, there was a coming together of the financial institutions lastly they talked to one another. they were going to have to try not to have this implosion and then we understand they liquidated the position and got out first and fast and through the baby out with the bath water proverbially. how do you think wall street comes off or global banks come off in this if that was the case? gary: very badly. i don't know who the referee can stop this thing from happening again. i know this is not long-term capital but it is in some respects. we've had a massive event, significant losses and in today's world, these seem more modest. at the end of the day, tension is out there. seeing this incredible volatility due to technicals

inside the equity market is unacceptable. as i've said, people have to start thinking about self-interest. look at the greater good of the market. that is important to keep the credibility of financial markets and focus. manus: thank you so much for joining us. gary duga, global cio office ceo. coming up on the show, nissan's top lawyer says he endured retaliation and even corporate surveillance of his family after questioning the integrity of the companies probe into carlos ghosn. our scoop on bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is bloomberg daybreak: europe from dubai and london with me, manus cranny, and emery

horton -- and annmarie hordern. nissan's top lawyer says the he endured abuse after questioning the integrity into the investigation of carlos ghosn. speaking couple he for the first time, the former general counsel has told us that after writing a memo to nissan sport outlining conflict of interest. we spoke to him. here's part of the report for quicktake storylines. >> within three days of me submitting that to the board of directors, i was removed from the ghosn executive conduct matters. i was then told i could not attend board meetings anymore. up until that point, i had attended every single board meeting.

i was also told after eight years of being in japan, i would be going back to the u.k. >> he was essentially being reassigned to get him as far away from the internal investigation. and also to a certain extent, in retaliation to some of the issues that he brought up regarding the internal investigation. >> first of all, his immediate responsibilities were taken away from him. eventually, he lost the coveted general counsel title. but it didn't stop there. towards the end of his stay in japan, rob and his wife were convinced they were being followed. >> during that period, i'd noticed once driving my car, i would have other cars following me. the first time ira noticed -- i noticed this was around mid march. i was

case numbers are rising again. prime minister boris johnson says the u.k. is on track to entirely lift pandemic restrictions over the next three months. at infection rates at the lowest since six months. a long awaited study from the world health organization and china says the coronavirus likely originated in bats and spread to humans through another animal. it says the possibility that it leaked a lab in china is extremely unlikely. top u.s. officials expressed concern the chinese government had a hand in writing the report. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus, annmarie. manus: thanks. coming up on the show, archegos breaks it silence. the block trade saga continues. investors are wondering how their losses will be. how big can it get?

we speak to bloomberg opinion's julie wren. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: 6:52 a.m. in the city of london. this is daybreak era. i'm and marie ford earned. manus cranny in dubai. let's take a look at the events we are looking up for today. 10:00 a.m. lunday time, preliminary reading of the eurozone consumer confidence index. at 1 p.m. u.k. time, we are getting germany inflation data. it is expected to increase slightly ever so much, manus. manus: indeed. later on in the afternoon, john williams takes part in separate virtual discussions.

something else we are watching -- we talked about it throughout the past 24 hours really, the ongoing block trade gate. archegos breaks it silence, saying all plans are being discussed. the stocks at the center of the sellout have come under pressure with renewed concerns of more fallout. investors are wondering what the recovery rates will be. in her latest bloomberg opinion piece, julie wren argues it is all about speed. those banks to move the fastest will end up with smaller losses. let's get to julie standing by . speed is of the essence in terms of unwinding. that comes down to every man and woman for themselves. block trade, place it early and get away, isn't it? shuli: absolutely. goldman was the first one heading for the exit door and they said their losses will be in the trillion -- the

billions and i believe them. if you take a look at the biggest problem of unwinding those positions, if you look at their portfolio, they are not mega tech like alibaba or tencent. they are smallish companies like viacom, discovery. there are a bunch of chinese internet companies that none of us have heard about before. people are like what, who? these stocks just don't have the liquidity of mega cap. also, they are quite expensive, especially some of the chinese names. there's always these rumors about fake sales, especially gfx. that is why goldman and morgan stanley can get 10%, 15% discount.

there is just no appetite in the market. they have to fire sale more and take more of the losses. annmarie: it's a really good point. we are so focused on archegos that we rarely even talk about, for a lot of people, sometimes first mentioned. there is morning of more pain ahead in the hedge fund industry. how big is this fallout likely to be? shuli: i think it will be fairly contained. he still traded in the chinese adr space. there are a handful of hedge funds. for instance, they would probably get a bit. one of the stocks gfx was down like 40% on friday and 20%, 30% on friday. i think it is fairly contained

but the biggest question is with the banks. the losses we are talking about in the billions of dollars. just for the record, credit suisse is off $3 billion. they are the ones in bigger trouble, i would say. annmarie: we will be watching out for more and your columns as well. bloomberg opinion shuli ren, thank you for your time and analysis. we look across equity markets, and the bond market especially, a selloff in the 10 year yield. it does not look like the market is focused so much on potential contagion from archegos. they are looking at the 90-90 program, the vaccine acceleration in the u.s. manus: they are. they are looking at the double "v." the vaccine rollout. 90% of the adult population will have access to a vaccine within five miles. i love a bit of dollar-yen. yen at a one year low. i like that.

what could pull it back from one of the worst quarters in decades? we will discuss again tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪

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