into a catastrophic financial, market wide situation. >> i think we are four to six weeks away from the economy reopening and taking off. >> the vaccine alone and covid story alone does not sell the whole story. >> this is going to build a lot of momentum of this year goes on. the environment is a lot. >> monetary policy is sometimes doing nothing. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: we have seen this movie -- jon: we have seen this movie before. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio alongside tom keene. i'm jonathan ferro, back together with lisa abramowicz. equity futures unchanged on the s&p 500, negative on the nasdaq. tom, that is a move we have seen before, nasdaq lower and yields higher on a 10 year. jon: coming back in the last 20 minutes, markets to me are one

of the major stories. this is a difference tuesday morning. the correlations are there as we drive toward a biden speech, and particularly as we drive toward the jobs report. there's continuing unraveling of the greatest margin call since time began. i'm waiting for james gorman and morgan stanley to tell me what the house of morgan stanley wrought. jon: asking the right question, would it lead to broader reduction of leverage of prime brokerage? what was offered to some of those clients? tom: i thought wigglesworth was a great short about what is going to happen this time. how can we have ltc m at 98, how could we have the irish bank lobe of 2008 and have it happen again? how do we happened so the prime brokers are on the same page because they don't have the transparency. jon: lisa, what a day to take off.

lisa: i couldn't help myself. you guys had fun with it, but i will say, there is a question, you say the yields are rising. it races a real issue for people perhaps who have added leverage to their poll folio with this idea the fed would have their back. will the fed have their back if you see more of these leveraged trades unwind and people start to normalize? this, to me, is one of the big conundrums as we see tenure yields reach the highest level since january. jon: tom, weigh-in, this has happened in a pretty normal market environment. last week, there was no big event. we are still in able market and markets have been surging toward records highs -- record highs. could you imagine what is out there if you start to get more stress in the system, what would be revealed then? tom: the thing to me is resiliency in the market. we heard conversation yesterday that this was unfolding and on my sabbatical, i think you heard it friday, is the idea of the discreteness of this bank blowup . i know we will run to the data

check 42 times this morning, because it is correlated. i would go to the real yield, what i just showed surveillance early addition, the idea that even the real yield is ready to breakout to a lesser negative statistic. jon: this is what the market looks like this tuesday morning, good morning to all. s&p 500, futures are slightly positive. negative on the nasdaq. more on that later. in a bond market, yields are higher by five basis points to 176.35. your intraday high takes out the high of two thirds days ago, 177.42. euro-dollar, 117 .14. we believe lower again. town .2 of 1 -- 2%. lisa: dollar strength building after couple months of the greenback weighing dominant over markets. a key question for the federal reserve, how worried are there -- are they about financial stability?

today, we might get some sense of that. the vice chair of supervision speaking at 9:00 a.m. at a financial stability focused speech. the question i have, is the fed worried about the normalization of raise leading to some sort of washout of leverage that we know is building? if you look at metrics, among hedge funds, near the highest levels on record. still, even after risk had been taken off of the table. at 10:00 a.m., the optimism building in markets. we will get consumer confidence, expecting a third straight month of increase. people have been able to get their jabs, vaccinated, live their lives. it builds confidence and maybe joe biden will i do that tomorrow and spit -- in pittsburgh. had 2:30, more fed speak from john williams speaking at a panel for aarp and the new york ad. he is the -- new york fed. he is the key person to talk about market functioning. how orderly has this unwinding been?

people say very much contained but perhaps he has a sense of how much leverage is picking up and how much there is this build of derivatives be on the side of regulators. increasingly, we see this in washington. jon: i think this is where it gets more complicated at the new york fed. not to going to do much detail, but the seat is able to talk about markets but filling the individual seats, maybe not as much about markets then labor markets. tom: i will say the monetary authorities need to join us from bank of america with at large payroll number later. to me, you are right, it is very discreet. it's not 1998 and they will not be a dramatic meeting at the fed where everybody decides what to do. this is separate and discrete, but we are learning more on a tuesday morning how the mufg news broke an hour ago. jon: i think we are all reading

between the lines on who the u.s. client is. tom: i think we know who the u.s. client is. again, and mass -- in matt's interview, what i would suggest is that it is still unfolding, lessen the markets -- less in the markets and more on the shock of how this happened. jon: let's bring in our next guest. russ, let's ask the question that has been asked here and elsewhere, do you think the events of the last week could lead to broader deleveraging of the hedge fund community? russ: i think you are going to see people rethink their positioning. there are couple things going on apart from the question of leverage and derivatives. the first is we have known for many years that liquidity could be a challenge. obviously that extends to equity markets as well. the second part of this, you alluded to the column on the surface, what has not remit --

been remarked about as much is how much physicians below the surface are being whipsawed. these daily rotations where you see sectors and styles moving two to three standard deviations in a day because investors flip back and forth between reopening trades, stayed home trades. that is also causing a lot of pain if you are on the wrong side of those moves. tom: how do you synthesize a boom economy into global allocation, and for that matter, just trying to get to next monday? [laughter] i will take one over at goldman sachs going out to a 10% plus statistic for q2 growth. when i have never seen this. rosenberg out of carnegie melon, he has never seen this. how do you frame your work? russ: i think this is the right question. probably the most important. as you said, few living

investors have ever seen this. to me, one, you you were alluding to before the week -- before the break, rates will normalize. it does not mean they melt up forever, but it is hard. tom, i think you nailed this before, to reconcile -60 in 10 year yields, in an economy, that's maybe a percent to 10% in the back half of the year. one of those two things is wrong and we think rates continue to normalize. the other, a lot of investors worth used to thinking in terms of data. what is your market exposure? if you have an economy growing that fast, you have to think in terms of your cyclical exposure. there will be parts of this economy and companies that will see demand they have not seen in decades. can you leverage those themes? can you take advantage of the fundamental change in your portfolio? those are two things we are focusing on, duration the lowest it has been in years, and we are looking for ways to add cyclical exposure into the or folio. lisa: i know you are dashing to

the portfolio. lisa: i know you are speaking -- to the portfolio. lisa: there are people taking this literally and leveraging up. rates are normalizing and there is a belief that they are sitting on the front end. as we see some push toward normalization, are there more accidents waiting to happen? like what we just saw. russ: i think whenever you see an abrupt move, there will always be blowups, people overextended. you have had a strong bull market that will be concentration -- market, and there will be concentration. we know that stocks and rates can move up together. if you look at equities, equity multiples and real rates, they tend to move up together for the obvious reason that as the economy gets better and companies gain operating leverage, earnings go up. what can trip up the market is

the rapidity and the spike in bond market volatility. if you look at what has happened the last three to four months, bond volatility has been increasingly moving with stock volatility. i think that is where the danger is. we get these weeks where yields are back up this quickly, that unnerves investors and that is when you tend to see these blowups. jon: before we let you run, we caught up with rick rieder yesterday and he did not sound as bullish as the last seven months. he has been talking about a big cash allocation, volatility through the summer. you are on the same page a blackrock? russ: i hope so. we comanage the fund. . [over talk] [laughter] jon: walk me through it, russ. russ: we have been doing exactly what has been described. the fundamentals are strong with cyclical recovery. stocks are likely to end the year higher but we are looking

at a top your market. what have we done? we have trimmed our equity exposure, and we have brought the duration down that we spoke about a moment ago. rather than looking at bonds, as rick described, we have been building up cash and having the pattern. there will be opportunities to reinvest. jon: [indiscernible] [laughter] tom: he would never do that. jon: russ koesterich, blackrock portfolio manager. tom, the end there, they have built up a cash position and are looking for volatility through the summer. tom: it is all fun but you can't do that. these guys have to be in the market. the margins are changing, and i don't have any belief on where the market is going. i am just looking at the bloomberg in its correlated -- and it is correlated and screams economic boom. jon: yields are higher by five to six basis points to 176. s&p 500 farmer by almost 1% --

almost .1%. in the next hour, the head of multisector and strategy. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i ritika gupta. ships are on the move in the suez canal. an almost weeklong effort to unstick the boat and the canal succeeded. the biden administration is sounding shopping divergent notes on the coronavirus pandemic. president biden celebrated a ramp-up in vaccinations who said -- and said 90% of u.s. adults will be able to get a shot by april 19. the head of the cdc pleaded with americans wear masks and she warned of "impending doom" as cases and deaths rise again.

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>> certainly in the u.s., with the financial systems here, whether it is the large banks or

others, they are extremely well-capitalized, have a lot bigger pushes against events like this, but it does reinforce. there is risk out there. you have to know what you are dealing with, understand the leverage they are utilizing further business strategy. jon: it feels good as you are not -- if you are not part of the mass. from new york city, good morning, alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. together with lisa abramowicz, back in the building. equity markets are unchanged, bond market yields higher, up six basis points. tom: let's go quick here. keys bank, he is the guy that made you a trust -- u.s. trust, running the shop. this is a rationalization of the rest of us versus manipulations a prime brokerage. i will go again to where they are very discreet. what is not discreet is the correlated market. even bitcoin is up, 51,058 on the edge of 60,000 right now.

it has a lift. jon: it does. a rally, and it has rallied through the year. in his portfolio, bitcoin is 13% of the portfolio. no intention right now to rebalance. he has been in that one rally, and fill out the makes. tom: i wore a beard yesterday and i thought kai ascii looked great. chemical engineering. jon: shake that one up. tom: let's go to the government. what we are going to do, we have to keep rin washington. on infrastructure, can you do this with 51 votes? >> yes. at least parts of it. they are going to break this big economic development bill in two parts. one infrastructure and they get to the health care and childcare more broadly.

you can do a lot of spending through the reconciliation process that lets you do something partisan in the senate. it does not look like you can do the specific eight earmarks they want to do. if they have to break it up further, or if they have to call it a loss and get republican votes as a possibility, but there are portions of this they could do in partisan ways. tom: i don't know if you are away, but the beard is gone and ties on for jon ferro and myself this morning. i got in email yesterday that said i'm going to be doing a construction flag letting traffic through. if i keep the beard on. do we have the employees to do our infrastructure in boom economy? russ: it looks like -- >> it looks like, and washington at least, the expectation is that we do. this is not quite the public works approach that you saw under fdr or anything like that. the structure of this is at

least a significant amount of money going through grants, through the states, so it is not quite as singular and centralized as we might think from a federal point of view, but maybe it is wishful thinking. when i talked to democrats got -- democrats, that is not an issue they're afraid of. jon: you see how smooth fitzpatrick is there? it's not the infrastructure the cure member as a kid. jon: where are we with the taxes, with the proposal? jack: it doesn't sound like biden will give way to the tax stuff today. there's a lot of debate already happening about pay fours in washington. a major issue to watch for is democrats from new york, new jersey, california saying they want a repeal of the cap to state and local tax deductions that went through in the republican tax bill. that is important, because to do that would be the least

progressive tax move democrats want to do. that kind of raises ideological issues that could make things challenging. i do not think we will get all of the numbers just yet tomorrow on taxes, but that is pretty critical -- is a pretty critical variable going forward. jon: breaking news, mufg units potential, $400 million losses tied to archegos. a lot of people will say of course but they referred to a u.s. client in our reporting suggesting the u.s. client is very much archegos. jon: we will seal -- tom: we will see a lot of these little ones. wells fargo cleared out trade yesterday. it will be a big number. jon: a massive number. the number keeps getting bigger as the hours come through. lisa: there's a question, jackie, come in here with the government response because they are looking a potential regulation of the banks, regulations of some of the derivatives trades -- derivative trades gone unseen until now.

what is the timeline there? jack: the timeline is definitely delayed. the talk in washington right now is so focused on this next big legislative initiative. . in terms of banking, there is a progressive push in finance policy. there is a a push to look at this -- there is a push to look at this. the timeline sound like not particularly soon in washington. lisa: when you say there is a push to look at this, at a certain point, people say of course they will look at this. it makes them look good to say we will have a hearing and bring people in and talk about it. is there anyone who actually is talking concretely about perhaps creating more disclosure around these over-the-counter trades that particularly allow places like archegos holding substantial portions in equities without reporting it on any venue? jack: to be honest, i am sure there are lawmakers who have brought up specifics along those

lines. the question in congress is do you have a bill that can move forward in both chambers? do you have a legislative vehicle at the top level -- vehicle? at the top level, i have not heard of a movement or schedule that looks close. jon: jack, always good to see you. a lot of topics to get d.c. jack fitzpatrick. yields are higher this morning. we have to turn back to something erik schatzker was talking about earlier, is it conceivable that prime brokers didn't know or were unaware of the leverage built up elsewhere with other prime brokers? if they did, one on earth were they doing? tom: cardinal versus ordinal. of course they knew there was leverage built, but you do not know the dollar amounts and you don't know the game theory of 5, 6, seven prime broker players of

which are dominant. i suggest this as an amateur, goldman sachs and morgan stanley were dominant. the others were all part of the mix, and you don't know the math. jon: building on that, how are hedge funds building up these massive companies without ever needing to disclose what they own because they are technically a hedge fund and they don't technically own the underlying stocks. that is where the regulators will take a closer look i assume. lisa: to your point about why the banks would get involved, it is more lucrative to have these over-the-counter derivatives. they were earning more money when it seemed like a free-for-all and when it seemed the fed was backstopping all risk. this is why i keep saying, at a certain point, when you get markets normalizing, you get pockets of selloffs, at what point, given the fact there has already been leverage built up, are we going to get other accidents like this? jon: i'm jonathan ferro, and much more the story through the morning. and on geopolitics is well with george friedman, the geopolitical futures founder and chairman. good morning to you all.

equity futures unchanged on the s&p 500. treasuries lower, yields higher. 176.53 on tens. yields are up by six basis points this tuesday morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

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jon: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." just compare and contrast the impending doom and gloom, the words of the cdc yesterday, with the outlook. the optimism on vaccines on this economy. you overlay the potential of a massive stimulus plan in d.c. and this is what happens to the treasury market. yields up by six basis points, 176.71. -- 1.7671. these are highs we have not seen in the post-pandemic period, and we take out the intraday's highs -- intraday highs a few days ago. you can guess the move, then nasdaq is underperforming, the russell is outperforming. russell futures up by .4%. nasdaq futures down by .4%. we get through that push and

pull through the morning for you. interesting moves in the turkish lira. dollar-yen, five straight days of weakness. up .4%. the big weakness in the mix this morning. tom: into the jobs report, this is important, the dxy, blended index, showing new dollar index strength on euro weaknesses. we are getting use to a 110 weaker yen over the last couple weeks. i am pleased to announce my book of the summer, unforgivable, as we had march and go into april. it is no surprise to anyone who knows me. this 2034, the most humble book generating humility i've read in years and years. i will not tell you about it, just read it. george freeman knows this book because he knows the story. geopolitical's founder and chairman. as we look at what he calls a

summer of china. george freeman, what will be our relationship with china,, labor day -- china, come labor day of 2021, for that matter 2034. >> 2034 is hard to predict. labor day is what it is now. the chinese are terrified the united states will close off the chokepoints the chinese face in shipping to the world. they want the united states to back off, and they are posturing, but they do not have the military capabilities to push the americans off. if they tried and failed, they have an internal crisis of massive proportions. the risk of trying military action is always going to fail. then, it is not good. jon: do we know the intelligence -- tom: do we know the intelligence, dr. friedman, you on the high ground on this.

we grossly underestimated soviet union strength. do we have knowledge of chinese intelligence and defense apparatus? george: yeah, and in a report yesterday, i was reading how the chinese are viewing the situation. the chinese are saying the great threat to any action by china is american submarines. they are saying their anti-submarine capability is not good. if they were, for example, to invade taiwan, that is not the important thing. how do you supply forces in taiwan across 100 miles of open water? the u.s. has a number of options, particularly submarines. the chinese do not know what they would do, and that uncertainty makes it a risky operation. there is a lot of talking in newspapers and a lot of speculation on what can be done, but if you are a chinese leader,

you want to be careful taking on the united states. jon: are you taking the prospect they could invade taiwan? george: they could probably force a landing in taiwan if they wanted to. i do not see how they supply the forces. in any effort of this assault, it is not the initial attack that matters, as we learned in omaha beach. it is getting inside and then, day after day after day, supplying all of the things they need. they maintain, in the face of the u.s. navy and air force, missiles, can they? can they maintain the line of supply? i think the chinese cannot and i think they know it's. the more they can create an atmosphere in which they are intimidating the united states or this period of intimidating, the more they get political benefits. they have been cautious about engaging the u.s. military. jon: with many people, including some on this program, it feels

like these two superpowers are on an inevitable conclusion -- inevitable collision course and the only thing we can control is the pace. do you think we can change course? george: the course is speaking loudly. the courses that the chinese understand the power of the united states, they want to diminish it in public, but at the same time, they have made no military moves whatsoever that would bring them in conflict with the united states. they know there are limits to what the u.s. can tolerate and they don't underestimate the u.s. nato power. newspapers and media may underestimate it, certainly the u.s. navy wants to emphasis how weak they are to get more budget, but nothing has happened. nothing has happened because the chinese do not wanted it to happen. lisa: you are basically implying here that the chance of a military altercation between the u.s. and china is a lot less

than many people seem to think. what is the battlefield? cyber? trade? is it something we have not necessarily thought about? george: china is the largest exporter in the world. the united states is the largest importer in the world. the chinese have managed, through diplomacy, to really year tate its largest cost -- really irritate is largest customer. china has got to get the market back opened. it is not have domestic demand enough to maintain itself. other countries cannot substitute for that american market. this is about the fact that china does not want to open its markets. the united states will not allow the status quo to exist, and therefore, the chinese have to find some way to accommodate their economies and demand in the united states. lisa: i have to say, the deficit and trade between the u.s. and china has only widened during the pandemic. what makes you think that the

chinese are actually at risk of losing some of their dominance over global trade? george: i don't know with the dominance is of global trade. do we have a country with a $14 trillion gdp and 1.5 billion people facing a country with $20 trillion and the population of only 300 trillion. it's hard to see that. we have to also remember something else, a massive alliance of china, japan, south korea, taiwan, philippines, indonesia, singapore, australia, now india. china has not a single military alliance in the region. the only alliance it has in the whole world is pakistan. so china is an isolated country, a very vast country, but isolated. the united states has an

alliance structure all the way from the aleutians to the malacca straits. from a strategic standpoint, the united states has a much better position. tom: this is so much of what i see with an investor talking about his china, and he says no they have not. let's get discrete and look at north of the philippines to taiwan. the 100 or so miles of the strait. do the french run their military hardware through that? how do we make clear that the luzon street is untouchable. george: the chinese have no illusions about that. firstly, if they did -- taiwan, the entire alliance structure would turn against them harder than they have. they understand that hostile military action will panic the region, make the coalition

stronger. i think the japanese have significant naval power, so they understand taking taiwan, for example, versus not solve their strategic problem. there are chokepoints behind taiwan that they can get closed if the u.s. exceed. if they do undertake this, they really don't want to do anything and nato because they would solidify nato. even the french would join in. nobody wants the chinese to go across the pacific. they don't have the ability to do so because they are loading -- they are alone in the system but they have to create an atmosphere where people trade with china and it helps their negotiation position. i think it does not, but that is for them to decide. the execution of an amphibious invasion is the hardest thing in

military affairs. it was extremely hard for the united states during world war ii. it is very difficult. any one thing about any invasion, you can lose. china internally, where xi has many questions asked about his capability to run the country, he cannot afford to lose. tom: a really -- jon: a really important conversation. george friedman there. for the moment, we need to turn back to 170 devon 42 -- 177.42. on the 30 year, 245 and up for basis points on the day. tom: to global wall street watching and those less global wall street, the keyword is correlation. it is locked in together, and with futures saying to me they want to go higher even though right now red and green is on the screen. jon: lisa, the numbers are huge on payroll.

1.1 million at pantheon. michelle meyer, bank of america, one million. these are big numbers people are looking for this coming friday. lisa: it raises a question on whether we will see further disruption in the treasury market as people get accustomed to a booming economy at the same time president biden lanes to talk about his stimulus. how much disruption do you get in markets that have gotten use incredible policy support? tom: what is so important here is that we can introduce, for tuesday, wednesday, thursday, onto jobs day friday, jonathan ferro will be off on jobs. looking forward to that. john, it is the pendulum of boom. lisa: when lisa -- jon: when lisa starts talking about the pendulum of boom, we should worry. lisa: triple leverage cash right away. [laughter] i'm not getting there yet. jon: that outlook is better on the vaccine front.

we will have the conversation, next, with dr. amos and algia. -- i'd algia. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. pleasant and biden is planning to take on the nations challenge of any president biden is planning on taking on the nation's challenge. he will revamp the tax code, outline his plans tomorrow in a speech. the president's remark will lay out the infrastructure part of a three chilean dollars spending package. social spending programs will be unveiled next month. immediate crisis at the suez canal blockage has ended, but the battle over damages is beginning. it is estimated the cost of the closure was $10 billion a day. cargo has been delayed days if not months, likely to lead to a flood of claims by everyone affected by the shipping line --

from the shipping line to oil producers. the new target is 2.5 billion doses. i on tech and pfizer collaborated to develop the vaccine. biontech estimates that in the fourth quarter it took in $405 million in revenue versus 33 million a year ago. a battle in the some cream -- in the supreme court tomorrow could determine whether the ncaa grip over college athletics is loosened. they will ask justices to overturn a ruling that would allow medical schools to offer student athletes more in the way of education-related conversation. they are trying to shield itself from past antitrust scrutiny. the u.s. is abandoning its four year long antitrust battle against qualcomm. prosecutors accused the company of using its dominant position in chips. the sec says it will not seek a

supreme court review of an appeals court decision that found qualcomm practices were not anticompetitive. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. ♪ i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> [indiscernible] and i'm going to reflect on the recurring feeling i have impending doom -- of impending

doom. you have so much to look forward to, so much potential of where we are, and so many reasons for hope. jon: the fears and worries of the doctor there, the cdc director, gloomy yesterday compare and contrast it with the hopes that we could roll out the vaccine to more adults 16 and 18 plus from the mineral april. 19% of u.s. adults could be eligible by then according to the president. good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action. let's rattle through things. in the bond market, that is the price action once again. we had a look at 177 and are back to 176.71 -- 1.7671. euro-dollar, 11738, down .2%. we are down by 1.35% in crude. tom, equity futures rollover a little bit, but it is a move, down five. jon: 21 point 07 on the vix and

gold under 1700 again. bitcoin, 59,000 right now. this is a joy and a joy after seeing the success of the united kingdom in limiting deaths from this pandemic. no one like the united kingdom has done that. america, better statistics. others are grim. what is your take on why the united kingdom has been so successful? jon: their strategy was different and prioritized one shot over getting everyone two and the time of the month. they prioritize one shot and the numbers are staggering, 34 million doses given, enough to cover the population of 25.5%. second doses is what really begins the next few weeks. jon: a senior scholar, his work across all of the media in sending the message on this pandemic. doctor, explained to me how

science-based prose like you, how are you going to get the message of efficacy and safety of this vaccine how to good americans who are scared and uncertain? how do you do that? >> it is very challenging. the data speaks for itself. if you look at the critical -- clinical trial data, we do not the vaccines with this type of efficacy every day. i do think what will happen, as more and more people get vaccinated, as people see the benefits of their vaccines, friends and family getting vaccinated and nothing bad happening, only good things meaning they have their life back and get different privileges as people start to do this safely. all of that will push the needle. as more people get vaccinated, the case on our side for advocating for this vaccine gets better. we know that vaccine efficacy will be something we have to battle and be proactive about.

there's a lot of misinformation about the vaccine out there. it is challenging, but all we can do is meet people where they are and try to assess the risks and try to figure out exactly what they need to hear and show them the data that supports that. it's a challenging thing. lisa: you talk about updated guidance from the cdc about what to can do once to get vaccinated. can you talk about what you expect that kind is to be, given people are already operating as though they have full immunity with respect to contracting the virus and spreading it once they get vaccinated? >> this is why i was worried about the cdc guidance being overly cautious because it will lag what people are doing. i think the next things that will probably happen is they will remove the three months after postvaccination and say if you're vaccinated, this is what you can do. i will likely expect there will be a change on non-essential travel to feel safe. if you are fully vaccinated, it is ok to travel. that is what many people wanted

to see. i think there will be more data on this a symptom at a spread. if you look at the study yesterday, the cdc-sponsored study, not only do the vaccines protect you from getting symptomatic or severe disease but also from getting infected at a high rate. i think there will be guidance changes there. you may also see guidance for people who have had prior infections down to one does. there is more and more data, including the study from yesterday, showing robust with windows. lisa: when it comes to the number of shots, john was talking about how in the u.k. they have taken an approach of prioritizing one shot and worrying about the second later. new numbers coming out trying people have 80% protection after the first shot. what you make of that? is that edification of what the u.k. has done? dr. adalja: i think it is. i think people think as this one-shot, two-shot controversy

lead to a war in they did not need to be. getting people from 0% immunity to 80% immunity is a major feat. you will see benefits and that is a strategy the u.k. pursued and successfully. it is something we should have considered more than we did. not that we were going to just basically trash a study and say we are not going to get the second 07. it is get the second does, get it -- second does, get it in someone faster. i think we could probably have been farther along if we would have done that. tom: where is supply right now? i get confusing signals. as we wake up and in all of the cities across the nation, what is the supply of the vaccine? dr. adalja: i would say it is very much better than earlier months and it is only going to get better. johnson & johnson is going to be delivering a lot of vaccines in the coming days if they have not already delivered it. we know the pfizer and moderna vaccine's are becoming plentiful.

we see vaccine clinics screening up and it seems to be going well. we knew everything was backloaded. in the early days, it would be difficult to get vaccines to places, but it seems to be a steady stream. as long as we keep up this pace and go faster, 2 million doses that, 3 million doses per day, we will be in good shape. jon: doctor, thank you sir. this after london, guy johnson telling me yesterday that london recorded zero deaths from covid over the weekend. the first day we have seen that in six months. the death cases are what we need to focus on. the vaccine effort. tom: shout out to james murdoch. really got a beautiful chart showing the challenges. as we mentioned, the good news across the atlantic, we should also note brazil. can i mention a bank we are not talking about? are we not talking about jp

morgan? why are we not talking about jp morgan? they are in the prime business, right? jon: the good news -- there is good news for jp morgan, that we are not talking about them. we are not talking about bank of america. if you have not been talked about in the last couple days, that's a good thing. lisa: you look at the share prices at head of the open, they are up. you can see the gap in the yield curve is the widest in 2000 -- since 2015. they can benefit because there's not a concern they have lost millions of dollars based on this potential exposure. jon: it is the pendulum of -- tom: it is the pendulum of diamond. jon: i think the reporting will reveal this in the weeks to come , why jp morgan was not part of the massive competition for the same, when many of the other banks on wall street were. jon: it will be each individual story. there will be greater reporting, including with us and others. i thought tracy was brilliant yesterday with her team in asia. it will all come out and it will be a movie. lisa will be in the movie.

jon: i look forward to that. lisa: is that right? tom: i'll be in it. jon: just banging the door down at archegos. [laughter] lisa: show me the money. jon: futures down five on the s&p. lisa: gloom. ♪

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♪ >> this is an unwind of an unlevered position. >> i think we are four to six weeks away from this economy completely reopening and taking off. >> we have to be conscious of the fact that the vaccine alone and the covid story alone does not tell the whole story. >> this is going to build a lot of momentum as the year goes on, so i think the economy is going to heat up a lot. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your yield a little earlier today north of 1.77%. right