unnatural as far as the recession goes. so now the recovery is somewhat unnatural as well. >> i think the environment is the key to it. >> we are relatively early in global recovery. >> expect more bouts of extreme volatility here because that's the release valve in the marketplace. >> my concern is we get to fully employed late next year and no one sees the stop sign. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> another monster bill. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance. i'm jonathan ferro. $2.25 trillion. tom: we will see how that goes. i was taken by -- we will talk about it in a minute.

three days job report. i am thunderstruck by one million jobs. you showed harris with his comments yesterday. chief economist at bank of america. that's brand-new in my career. jonathan: looking for bigger numbers in the months to come. looking forward to the interview with brian deese later this morning. look at the language from the white house. the great challenges of our time, the climate crisis and ambitious -- ambitions of a -- china. tom: two days in a row we are on the same page talking about dft. both of us saw that china comment out of the white house. i was thunderstruck and i believe it's the third bullet point on infrastructure in toledo we are talking about china. jonathan: talking about spending. at some point this market has to think more about what that

corporate tax hike would mean. lisa: people are saying they are soon into price that in. i will note today marks the end of a quarter that marks the worst quarterly performance for treasuries back to 1988. there is a question of how much backlash there will be to president biden's wish to reshape the popular narrative in the economics profession away from the idea the private sector is more efficient than the public sector. he's trying to retrace that and publicly generated growth. jonathan: no doubt mr. deese will have something to say on that. good morning prayed we look like this on the s&p 500. futures not even positive a single point in the bond market. what a round-trip we have. a print north of 177 and they reversal the treasury market. tom: that is the interior volatility going on.

it is an interesting volatility and i go back, of the immovable force which is a new setting on the bloomberg terminal early in the morning. 19.90. we are still in a new regime. jonathan: boring. euro-dollar. one of the worst monthly seen for years. take it away. lisa: i don't think this will be boring. we are getting adp employment data. thank you i will say 550,000 new jobs added to the private sector. to your point, this really sets up that blockbuster number for friday but we get from the march payroll figure. i'm trying to figure out what markets will do with this.

is this going to be more of a concern after the biggest selloff in treasuries since 1980? we will get u.s. february pending homing sale -- home sales. interesting to see the toggle between a high prices and a shortening supply of homes. incredible demand, but the prices are going up and they're not that many homes. interesting to see if that leads to fewer homes sold. the big discussion of the day. president biden unveiling his plan for economic stimulus over the decade ahead. an eight year plan. $2.25 trillion. interesting to see how much pushback there is. just focus on one particular part of this plan. the salt reduction. the state and local tax reduction may be one of the biggest sticking points democratic senators come out and say we won't vote for this plan was to reinstate these which were removed under the trump administration. >> some democratic senators are

calling for. some of this is widely expected. 28% corporate tax rate from 21%. still below the 35% we had previously coming into the trump administration. taxes up, spending up. yes it is a big number, but it will be spent over a long period of time. tom: you mentioned the corporate tax shift. the time function is critical and i believe we will hear the number 15 in the speech today. 15 years out. in politics that they lifetime. jonathan: john, how do you process the spending plans of this administration? >> the first thing is we have to hear what he actually says when the presentation is made on this. what we are seeing upfront we have to say it tells us fur is

going to fly in washington with discussions of alexa, out the other end of the pipe. that said, we have a lot of pressure. this is an economy in great transition not only in transition back into a post pandemic environment hopefully, but in an environment where algorithms and robotics continue to remove jobs from the workplace and infrastructure spending may be just what the country needs. tom: i love your newsletter. you talk about your research. i love what you say about the idea of transition. what are we transitioning to? john: hopefully we are transitioning to a next new normal that will in some ways mimic what we had the new normal we have coming out of the great

financial crisis which is a reinvigoration of the economy, reduced unemployment, gains in wages towards a lower segment being greater than the top segment. what we would like to see here is with not as much inflationary pressures some expect, we think technology and globalization will likely help temper that effect as competition increases. >> have stocks adequately priced in a 20% minimum corporate tech -- a 28% minimum corporate tax rate in the united states? john: no. when we look at it we think not. within a few increase taxes on corporate from 21 to 28, on an hp 12 c it looks like about a third 3% difference there. that will make a difference to looking at what the estimates

are for earnings. we could definitely see some volatility on that. jonathan: i ask this at goldman sachs yesterday. when you take the research and reverse engineer we are inspecting tax cuts then and tax hikes now. is it that simple? john: i don't think it's that simple but on the outside that's what it appears to be. what comes out of the discussions that will happen in washington because of the fact both sides of the aisle have components that are concerned with the amount of involvement by the government when it comes to the private sector, this could come out already -- i thought we were looking at $3 trillion. now we are at two and a quarter. that's a big difference in terms of what's going to be projected to spend weather over a few years. tom: one final question.

we will see a speech today with -- which many say shifts us from a tine of ronald reagan to the time is joseph biden as president. are we seeing a regime shift of our perception of government? john: i do not think so. the election that occurred last year in 2020, what it showed as a country that is very much divided. i don't think the biden administration is a mandate just as much of the trump administration didn't have a mandate. it is a combination of all of the above. that will likely create volatility for the markets. jonathan: good to catch up. what an afternoon we will have only get to the president of the united states as well addressing his spending plan.

i know lisa has been doing the same thing, overwhelmingly looking at the spending side of things and not to think too much about what could happen with taxes. we have to spend more attention. tom: i defer to mr.'s are really on this, the attention on the first tuesday of november, 2022. that's when the infrastructure calculus is about. republicans and democrats have to play that off the moderate parts of their party. jonathan: how do you get past this one? lisa: something just doesn't go far enough. and then you have people from new jersey in particular in new york saying reinstate those local taxed adoptions. there will be a fight given the democrats want to go it alone. this reshaping of the narrative, the government will be more productive than the private sector.

that will be one of the key debates in the economics profession because that's been the presiding idea that the private sector is more efficient than the public sector and joe biden is saying not this time. will he get enough support for that. jonathan: more efficient at what? closing the inequality gap, maybe that's what they are taking a position on. lisa: except people might say we haven't necessarily put in the infrastructure or some of the green energy or the broadband necessary and people argue some of the techn advances have to come from the public sector. this will be the ultimate debate. it hasn't been driven as much by the private sector in order to come fleet at the level we want. jonathan: the climate crisis and the ambitions of an autocratic china. the great challenges of our time. at the epicenter of a huge public investment plan in the united states with china at the middle of it. tom: i'm not in a pick on rhode

island, but the secretary of commerce she knows every rusted bridge in her rhode island. that's what this is about. rhode island is a state. route 146 to fenway park. jonathan: i've been to newport. it's beautiful. tom: i bet you have. [laughter] jonathan: no idea where you're going with that. bear in mind i probably seen a lot more of this country than most. equity futures on the s&p 500. staying out of trouble. coming up, white house economic council director. there is an important conversation this morning breeze this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, the white house is calling it the most sweeping infrastructure plan since investments in the space program and the interstate

highway system. president biden will unveil the package today in pittsburgh. include spending on transportation, research and development, clean water and improve care for the elderly and disabled. the present want to pay for with higher corporate taxes. european central bank christine lagarde -- european central bank president christine lagarde says they won't shy away from their powers if investors are to push bond yields higher. >> they can test us as much as we want. we have a mandate and aim. we will do what is required in order to deliver and we have exceptional circumstances to deal with at the moment and exceptional tools to use at the moment and we will use them as they are needed in order to deliver on our mandate and deliver on our pledge to the economy. >> global news 24 hours a day on

air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> lower interest rates make it easier to finance borrowing it

-- thin businesses and others do. record low mortgage rates. that makes it easier to make those payments or to buy a car or to buy a house. jonathan: keeps rates low for the government. that was the federal bank -- reserve bank of new york president. this wednesday morning, counting you down to an address from the president of the united states on a spending plan. shaping up as follows. mild moves unchanged on the s&p buried -- on the s&p. euro-dollar holding on to 1.17 handle. the dxy having a nice march. tom: did lagarde move the euro with her conversation with francine? jonathan: what she did was put a

marker out there in a more authoritative way. tom: she went to the medium and short term. we will look at the infrastructure, the effect on the markets and towards the jobs report on friday. let's drill down to what we will hear from the president. emily, is this infrastructure bill about the lousy bridges outside detroit or is this about frank -- fancy programs to come? emily: it will be about a lot of things. president biden will be pitching it in pittsburgh. that the next step in the american recovery. $1.9 trillion bill that was passed that there would be immediate rush to put out the fire caused by the pandemic. you can think about this bill in a way that will help rebuild the u.s. tom: can you explain to our domestic and global audience why

china is mentioned and i think the third bullet point out of the white house's statement this morning? emily: china is an issue that has a lot of bipartisan support in the u.s.. you of republicans and democrats and a lot of the american people who are tentative. tom: what does china have to do with a bridge in des moines, iowa? emily: the argument the administration is making is the u.s. needs to make sure we are keeping ahead of china in our infrastructure and that we are matching china in our investment in our own country and workers and they are using that as leverage to get bipartisan bumps in legislation bring lisa: i thought tom would push back on the bipartisan effort because everyone is seemed to throw out the idea republicans would get on board. will democrats come together and pass this bill? how much will it change before you get democrats support

involved? emily: we are going to see the white house try to reach out to republicans. we will see president biden meet with them, but you are right. in d.c., the consensus is the point to get all democrats on board. we have already seen some tension with that with the salt cap tax. we are seeing a number of democrats in the house say they want to see that eliminated. that something chuck schumer actually supports. there will be tensions within the democratic party and its key to keep in mind here. it does not take a lot of them to fail. it takes one democrat in the senate. everybody has things they are going to be pushing for and in the next month expect to see a lot of negotiations. the key here is this won't be happening overnight. we will see this play out over the next several months as lawmakers negotiate among

themselves and the biden administration. lisa: is this a wish list or something we could see come to fruition in a real way? emily: i think a little bit of both. nothing in here so far has been a giant surprise. the whole thing the administration is been discussing. put out in the initial proposal you understand there may or may not be things that get across the finish line. this is an opening bid starting gun. and you will see it go through a number of changes to make sure it can pass the house and senate and accommodate both modern democrats -- moderate democrats and the more progressives who pushed for their own priorities. jonathan: some people will be asking where's the rest of it. the corporate tax hike widely expected. what happened to the rest of it? emily: we will see this planned rollout in several portions. i think today biden will be

focusing on what americans are going to get from this plan. maybe holding off on the tax pc little bit. that might not be quite as popular and a more difficult sell. we are expecting to see president biden come out with a second part of this plan next month that will be focused on expanding health care, child care and a bit more social issues that don't necessarily relate as much to infrastructure. jonathan: the spending plan. 1.9 trillion a month or so ago and now a price tag of $2.25 trillion. that's different break and you walk through audience how much money will be spent over what. of time? emily: this will be spent over eight years. it is not all at once like we saw with a 1.9 trillion. this is a longer-term investment. this is a huge bill compared to what congress has passed in the past. we will be hearing concerns from

republicans about the debt, the deficit. and we are going to have to see exactly how much of this can be paid for through the biden tax proposal. jonathan: great after -- great to catch up. $650 billion for initiatives tied to improve the quality of life at home. it goes on and on. >> we have seen it forever. i will go back to when you and i every time we track to dapo's. how about heathrow. where is the will in america to do what you guys did with heathrow? i remember it as a dump to be direct. and it is now gorgeous. jonathan: a little story about when i first moved over here. tom keene trying to wind me up and say bad things about infrastructure in america. i'm going to be really careful here. i think everybody would be on the same page to say there is no heathrow in america.

tom: you and i are living this because he took the gulfstream every weekend. you look out at laguardia. i drove by the redevelopment coming back from l.a. and jfk and i'm sorry, this is a combined construction project that is working. why can we move -- why can we do more of these? lisa: this plan has leslie guardia restructurings been broad-based far-reaching social plans. that will be the distinction. this isn't just about bridges being fixed and new heathrow like airport in new york city. i think that's the area we have to focus on here. the idea this is a reshaping of social programs in a way we have not seen since fdr. jonathan: this is not about new york, let's be clear about that. coming up.

from new york city this morning, good morning. tom: i just wanted infrastructure project. why can't we have a mcdonald's. jonathan: atlanta airport is great. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action. unchanged on the s&p. some outperformance on the nasdaq. relative underperformance on the russell. a great conversation coming up. in the bond market, looks like this in the treasury market. up a couple of basis points after a full round trip in yesterday's session. we corrected course as the session grew older. so much about the taxes was already known. finally how the euro gave way.

it happened last week. we moved through that average and then we get lower again. up about 2.4% to a 93 handle. you might say 2.4% is not a big move. in foreign exchange that the biggest move on the dollar index all the way back to november 2016 on a monthly basis. what happened, a strong dollar. we talked about the trump trade. infrastructure spending, fiscal spending and here we are doing it again with a different president and the same results. >> we are just here into april. the engineer from texas, a gentleman from m.i.t., years ago studying. i've got about 18 questions i want to start in right now with

what you are claim for in your research which is the granular data you see. what is the granular data you see of an american boom economy? >> the economy has taken off about three weeks ago when the checks came out. retail exploded. then on the others if it, things like airlines which have been on the back, they have increased about 10 points on a zero to 100 scale from 10 to 20. so the economy is lifting off or has lifted off. you said booming. that's a little strong but it is coming on. it will come on big time in the rest of this year. >> you take this right over to the earnings guesstimate and what the standard & poor's 500 will do. i believe i see a bullish ed.

ed: i just report what's going on. earnings in this quarter in the first quarter will be explosive. they will be up. it's a world where you have on one side the rising interest rates and rising inflation which is negative for the stock market. on the others you have earnings which are explosive. you get the earnings like once a quarter. but we will get earnings starting at about a week and half now. they will be good and by the end of 2022 there'll be something like $230 which you multiply by 20 gives you a pretty big s&p. >> trying to lean on the experience of people like you to understand how original this is and how unique it is. someone like me can say it

doesn't have the same weight. so let me ask that. how original at this moment to see this administration and what it's trying to do? >> the whole pictures without precedent. it's totally original, totally unique, totally fluid. you have to be very humble about what you think is going on and what you think is going to happen because there's been nothing like this in terms of the pandemic, the rebound, now the stimulus. the stimulus is totally unique. don't feel like such a young person. >> i'm trying to be humble. i want to apply some of that to the inflation debate as well. how do you approach that? >> my view is it will go up more than people expect. it's going to peak later than people expect. and then it's going to come down. i think at the peak, the fed

will be the most nervous they are about inflation. it's going to go up. prices will go up and that the peak it won't seem like hitting the peak. by 2023 you will be back down to something like 2.5%. you could get up to three before you get there. lisa: when we talk about the corporate sector we've been talking about boom times in the optimism. what about corporate taxes and the rate going up to 28% from 21% on a minimum basis? how does that affect the growth rate going forward? ed: it is negative. nothing. so the, there are no. taxes -- but there are a whole lot of things -- negative things going on.

i'm republican so i find this not particularly encouraging. i feel -- sarah bianchi has the corporate tax going up to 25% so i'm going with her on that, whether 25% or 28 it still up from 21. then you have increases in the taxes on high income people. it's a regime change. i've been through before and it's not the end of the world. lisa: there is an argument being made that under former president trump the tax cuts were not used to put extra capital into investing in the physical infrastructure or in creating that many new jobs. people say it didn't have the same boom with a long-lasting tail. on the flipside they say this won't have as big of a detrimental effect especially given some of the plans the federal government is investing

in. ed: it sounds plausible. i don't agree with either one of them very much. i think the tax cuts did help and the economy was booming before the pandemic. i was traveling around -- i'm not traveling anymore, but i would go to places like charlotte, it's booming. and then the pandemic hit, but the economy is coming back. it's not the centerpiece of my view right now. the centerpiece of my view right now is the economy has lifted off and you have a synchronized global upswing. use saw the china pmi. tom: i know you are important and everybody else is important, but the gaia care about is david ross so. he is wired in two industrial america. we all have the idea of a consumption boom.

what does he say about the industrial behavior? the industrial emotion within the stimulus? >> he is quite positive. like me, he watches the facts, not his opinion about the facts. he showed me a series on european truck sales. they are up 8% and then he just did a survey of global construction equipment is up 7%. so these are surprising to me, but he sees a pre-positive picture developing under our noses. tom: this is on european truck sales. can you extrapolate that out to the i in the gdp equation. can you assume business comes on

like us up -- like consumption? >> it is coming on. we did a survey of construction that's a pretty strong. i mentioned david's work. so i believe that the economy is one of the things that will be unique about it is it will be pretty strong on a number of fronts. in particular, investment and also the parts that have been very weak like restaurants, hotels, airlines. those will be coming back in the next year. you saw yesterday the increase in consumer confidence. a 20 point increase. we will find out tomorrow about employment which is the sister to capital spending. all of those might be coming on as you go through 2021. almost every place i look it's

doing better. jonathan: always great to catch up. it's been too long. ed mentioned the data out of china. we missed that this morning so far. the pmi came in really nice. the survey was 52.0, the previous one 51.4. that's what we want to see. tom: matt miller was talking up in berlin what we saw in germany as well. it's not the united states, but certainly not a global slowdown. they've got to clear the vaccine out. as we talked about yesterday, the idea of a locomotive. if we are a locomotive where is the rest of the world going to be? >> we saw that in the flow index. business confidence in germany higher. lisa: even though we saw that

inflation print that was disappointing which sets up for a bigger boom if christine lagarde sticks to what she says. saying we will keep the pedal to the metal and keep things going along. even as people get more confidence. jonathan: got to keep beating the drum on the day -- on the data that's going to come. the estimates fascinating to look at. at the top end is this big grouping. both of them at one million. one million again. stephen stanley, 850 k. big numbers and they don't think it stops here. >> i would go back. i would go on seven or eight months.

7 million job formation. they get you dead and 3.5% unemployment. jonathan: coming up next, lauren sauer. in new york city, gloomy this morning. i'm not sure it's time for the sun to come up yet. give it a chance. the sun will rise. lisa: is that philosophical? this is bloomberg. ♪ >> president biden is counting on business to pay more than $2.2 trillion infrastructure plan he's unveiling today in pittsburgh. he wants to raise the corporate income tax or 21% to 28% plus a 21% minimum tax on global corporate earnings. the biden plan calls the spending on research and

development and care for the elderly and disabled. a victory for the u.s. tech industry. president biden plans to allow pandemic related ban for certain temporary workers to expire today. maria him -- it took six days to dislodge that container ship stuck on the sandbank in the suez canal. it may take longer to figure out how to keep it from happening again. there will be questions about whether the ship should've attempted the journey in 40 mile-per-hour winds. their reports the justice department is investigating matt gaetz over an alleged sexual relationship with an underage girl. he's a close political ally of former president trump. the washington post said it was started by the trump justice department. he said the allegations are part of an extortion plot against his

family. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> as more and more people get vaccinated, as people see the

benefits. nothing bad happening to them but only good things happening meaning they get their life back. they get different privileges as people start to say vaccinated people can do this safely. all of that will push the needle. >> jumps top -- from new york city this morning, good morning. let's go through the price action quickly this morning. later this morning, tomorrow claims. equity futures up three or four points. in the bond market all over the place yesterday. yields up by two basis points. euro-dollar holding on to 1.17. dollar strength today through much of g10 dollar weakness. just crossing around pfizer. saying it's covid vaccine was 100% effective in a final stage

trial of kids age 12 to 15. the vaccine produced antibodies against the covid-19 that exceeded the levels of vaccinated young adults. all cases were in teens that received a placebo. in that trial, encouraging news. tom: i do want to say, brazil is a mess. with the military resigning and much of the government, a population adjusted death rate it would be equivalent for us to 4400 deaths per day. that's where they are in brazil. it's a much better story as john mentioned in the united states. lauren sauer with an update from johns hopkins. it is all good news, but within it i have felt a massive inpatients. give us the timeline you see of april, of may, of june.

what will we witness in america? lauren: i think back to the director's about impending doom. you balance that excitement and impatience with the worry that one side of this equation will outpace the other and you don't know what it will be. the vaccine data all looks great. the speed is incredible. 3 million vaccines a day and it just keeps going. the hope is we keep vaccinating people through april and may and that we see those expansions. and that the vaccine rate really does outpace infection. this is fantastic to see. this -- we hope they can maintain this public health measures that work so well as we get vaccines into more and more arms. tom: state your confidence to those less scientific.

they are worried and scared. state to them right now why they need to get vaccinated and the fear that they have? lauren: it is a totally -- it is totally valid to be concerned. the speed at which we are advancing technology, the great thing is these technologies have been developed -- have been being developed for quite some time and that we use the regulatory framework we know really well. we use it quicker and more efficiently. on the other side of this we have safe vaccines that are not just going to protect you they will protect your family, your kids, they will protect strangers. they will protect the most vulnerable in the community and protect you. that's really important. jonathan: there's a massive difference between hesitancy and being an anti-vax or braden i'm

so pleased you framed it that way. right now we seem to take everyone who is hesitant about getting the vaccine as if they are some crazy person who is not up today with 21st century science. how can we do a better job communicating that that is not the case. lauren: it is totally normal. what we need to do is talk to people who are hesitant. you have to have a complication to say you have to make space where someone can trust they can ask their question safely. that they can get the information they want to make them feel better about the process or make them understand the process better. so they can take the next step to access the vaccine. if someone is concerned, ask them why. try to help them understand the data or evidence that may support their claim. it is ok to say we don't know the answer yet, but everything we are seeing so far points to three and four very safe and effective vaccines.

lisa: there's a question when -- whether we can get to her to immunity. but also without kids being vaccinated. as pfizer comes out and says it will seek authorization for the 12 to 15 age bracket. how crucial is it for us to get kids in that inoculation cycle to end the pandemic? >> it is critical and it is such an important step in getting back to that functioning society . one of the challenges of things like reopening schools is it's not just the kids who are affected. it's the people who may have a -- to the vaccine or may have their own hesitancy about vaccine but want to remain safe in their working environment. teachers, family members, elderly populations who can access vaccines for whatever reason. being able to vaccinate kids safely with a product that works

is really exciting and a promising step for rapid reopening. >> as some of the states are opening vaccinations to younger individuals and more and more people, their logjams on websites. for all the people who are eager . are you concerned about being logjams -- the logjam discouraging people? >> we talk a lot about hesitancy but we have to talk about this access issue. making sure when people decide i'm ready and confident in this process and ready to get the vaccine, that they have a path to access. sometimes people will say i can keep reloading this webpage were trying to show up at a convention center. making sure we leverage those existing pathways we know people use well like their pharmacies were primary care physicians to get vaccine safely and quickly to them is going to be huge.

jonathan: several days of north of 3 million vaccines per day. are we at the limit? >> i think we have new opportunities to spread and distribute more broadly. it's a matter of finding the people ready to receive it and trying out new solutions. jonathan: great to catch up. north of 3 million it started friday with that record number. maybe we can take things further. tom: we all have our individual stories. it's like -- there is this massive inpatients, let's go. frankly, what do i know, but i am constructive about this. this is a -- this is original, of the speed of vaccine and getting it out is original in our science. >> a fantastic job. that is north of 3 million.

your market right now. equity futures are positive. yields higher by a couple of basis points. then we reversed. tom: you nailed that. jonathan: a little bit of color on what's happened.

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♪ >> that sort of immediate down is very it -- immediate shutdown is very unnatural. >> i think the environment is going to heat up a lot. >> where relatively early in the global recovery. i think it is going to be quite a sharp recovery. >> expect more extreme volatility here because that is the release valve in the marketplace. >> my concern is we get into a fully employed economy next year and nobody sees the stop sign. we don't slow down at all. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: 2.2 $5 trillion. for our audience worldwide, good morning -- $2.25 trillion.