>> that sort of immediate down is very it -- immediate shutdown is very unnatural. >> i think the environment is going to heat up a lot. >> where relatively early in the global recovery. i think it is going to be quite a sharp recovery. >> expect more extreme volatility here because that is the release valve in the marketplace. >> my concern is we get into a fully employed economy next year and nobody sees the stop sign. we don't slow down at all. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: 2.2 $5 trillion. for our audience worldwide, good morning -- $2.25 trillion.

for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the details coming later. tom: and into a booming economy, as we heard from ed hyman of evercore isi. s&p will do better in this american economy. jonathan: we are talking about one million payrolls on friday. france said to consider a national lockdown due to the covid spike. compare and contrast europe and the united states. there's the headline for all to see. tom: we saw from merkel yesterday for the day before. what is interesting is the bet on the street. at deutsche bank woman's ago, an expert on fx minces no word. he's optimistic on europe amidst this gloom.

lisa: you really start to wonder at what point this divergence has legs beyond just this moment. this idea that europe is lagging behind the u.s., but people saying later on in the year, the pandemic will end. at what point does this lag time create frictions, create problems that create slower growth going forward, and that bifurcation only widens. jonathan: better data still to come, and out of europe, it is a struggle. we looked at this on the s&p 5 -- we look like this on the s&p 500. futures are positive. $1.1731 is where we are on euro-dollar. spending out of d.c. this time we are talking about tax hikes, too. you tenure yield, 1.7173%.

lisa: we will be getting today the private sector employment report. we are expecting 550 thousand new jobs added, the most since last september. people are expecting a harbinger of what to expect on friday when we get that march payroll support, expecting potentially over one million jobs added. the question i have is how will markets handle this. at 10 a clock a.m., we will be getting new home sales. adjusting to see the supply demand dynamic. the prices on homes in february rose the most going back to 2006. how much does that affect the number of sales getting done? there just aren't any homes available. at 4:20 pm, president biden delivers his speech for this $2.25 trillion plan. can we call it infrastructure,

or is this a new deal? it is about $6 billion odd towards roads, bridges, etc. the rest towards social programs. . i think that will be a key area to part out -- to parse out. jonathan: your last point is probably the key point. where is the agreement within the democratic party? we need to catch up with kevin cirilli a little later. we also need to catch up with brian deese of the national economic council. lisa is right. $650 billion for initiatives tied to improving quality of life at home, likely water and high-speed broadband. that is still an infrastructure issue, let's be clear, but i take lisa's point. tom: i don't know the english proxy here, but this is a regime change if they ran this through with a stimulus combined from 30 days ago. this goes back to ronald reagan,

and this is the effort of government to impart itself into society. the jury is out on what the moderates will do with this. jonathan: what we are talking about more broadly is the next phase of this recovery. we are talking about potentially a lockdown again in france, set to consider national lockdown due to the covid spike. the tax has hit a record high, 15,000 points. there's confidence in germany picking up because right now, china is looking ok and america is set to look better and better as the year grows older. tom: and you've got guys at many shops looking beyond the vaccine failure in europe. they've got to get it fixed. i don't mean to compare them to brazil. in no way is europe in the grim situation brazil is an, but they don't want to go to that tendency. jonathan: not at all.

let's bring in peter tchir, academy securities head of macro strategy. how do you take all of that on board? peter: i am looking really towards the stimulus package, what plays out. i do think we need a national security element. think the 5g buildout is an important part of this. i think there's a national security element there. i think we are supposed to see some of that same stuff coming out of d.c. as part of the medical and health care industry, where we can bring some of that production back on shore. tom: if you look at the senate as the blocking feature over the last number of years it is, it is a new regime. how does the new political regime, whatever we see in 2022, how does that fold into your fixed income world? peter: what i think we see is a

smaller package ultimately done fairly quickly. that is infrastructure spending. that is going to drive rates higher. i think we can talk about a much bigger plan, and maybe this comes in two stages, but i think we see rates higher. i think we will see a higher 10 year as we see this spending become a reality. is this really going to drive growth and job creation, or is it just a dollar spend and it is done? especially if taxes become a big part of this package. lisa: let's just parse out what you are doing right now, stay away from fixed income, sticking with equities because there's a greater chance that the equity side of the investing cycle will do better in the months ahead. peter: right now i am still looking at owning credit. i'm overweight credit. i like anything associated with reopening, any sort of infrastructure. i like more the health care and

medical side of things. i am trying to avoid big tech still. it has been very volatile recently. i can't tell whether we have bottomed or not. i think there may be one more down. if we go after corporate taxes, it is probably going to be those companies affected most. jonathan: you are surrounded by a lot of generals at academy securities. i would up to know what it sounds like around china. the discussions is not just around climate, but the ambitions of china. how do you take the conversations you are having every day and apply them to the market at the moment? peter: one thing is china is not going to change. china believes the way they are approaching the economics, the way they deal with countries globally is working. so we have to go forward with that and realize there is going to be friction. we are strategically tethered with china. we are definitely going to have

to compete with them for access to natural resources, rare earths. we are going to have to deal with them across the globe. they are going to flex their muscles in terms of what is going on with taiwan. to believe that china is going to behave like us is completely eradicated. at the same time, things like ppe we are going to have to be well aware of. we like the approach that biden is taking in terms of trying to take a global approach to china, but europe remains mired in their own issues. i am not sure they are going to be a partner in china in a timely manner. lisa: how close is this alliance, given the fact that europe needs china for some of the money that is fostered by trade? there's also a question as an investor how you operate around the thesis you just laid out. we have seen a lot of money flow from the financial sector in the united states into china, with

the idea that that my economy was maturing and becoming -- that that economy was maturing and becoming ripe for investment. peter: i think the remains -- i think the friction remains, so i would be cautious there. i think this administration is less focused on tariffs, so we could see tariff reduction kind of in the middle. it is not going to be a one-way street of constantly battling. so i would look for opportunities there. but anything i think really has that national security interest or element to it, i would be very cautious about that. jonathan: love catching up. peter tchir, academy securities head of macro strategy. a proposal from the u.s. administration, $2.25 trillion, a full eight your plan

dedicating 600 $20 billion for transportation, $650 billion for initiatives tied to improving quality of life, what is billed as the biggest nondefense program on record. if you are confused about the detail, we will get some more clarity i hope at four: 20 eastern this afternoon from the president of the united states. tom: and also a measure of the boom economy, we begin the three days of this jobs report. adp, does it correlate into friday? i don't know. but we are looking for a big number from adp to start that off. that is a fully employed america for president biden. jonathan: we are looking forward to catching up with brian deese, the national alcan, council director, and -- not can no -- national economic council director, in about 10 minutes. france considering a national

lockdown. into the bond market we go. yields higher by a basis point to 1.7173%. we speak to the white house next, right here on "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the white house is calling it the most sweeping infrastructure's plan since investment in the state program -- infrastructure plan since investment in the space program and highways. the president wants to pay for it with higher corporate taxes. european central bank president christine lagarde's shy away from using their powers if investors -- christine lagarde says policymakers won't shy away

from using their powers if investors -- >> we are going to do what is required in order to deliver enough, and we have exceptional circumstances to deal with at the moment and exceptional tools to use at the moment. we will use them as they are needed in order to deliver on our mandate and deliver on our pledge to the economy. ritika: the ecb has accelerated its emergency bond buying program to push back against a rise in borrowing costs. hitachi has agreed to pay for a u.s. software developer and company, global logic. the deal could help the japanese firm expand its business. the conglomerate has begun investing in providing for the internet of things. shares of delivery service deliveroo plunge in the first

minutes of trading. investors had concerns about shareholder voting and pay for deliveroo riders. -- for deliveroo drivers. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> the rescue plan has more than $30 billion in funding for public transit agencies, helping

them to avoid layoffs and service cuts. we know the cuts these agencies were facing disproportionately harm workers who depend on public transportation, including so many of the workers we have belatedly come to call essential workers. so this is a matter of equity. jonathan: that was pete buttigieg, the u.s. transportation secretary. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action for you. in the equity market, on the s&p 500, basically unchanged, up 0.1%. in the bond market, yields up to 1.7175%. the world's attention on the president of the united states and day $2.25 trillion plan. tom: this is a sea change in terms of stimulus, and that is what we see on infrastructure. what i like about this, and particularly our next guest, is he is definitive as the

experienced deputy. i don't know anyone of this vintage who is deputy or special assistant, who has such an interesting cross-section of experience in washington. jonathan: that man is brian deese, director of the national economic council. big plan. a lot of detail we need to work through. help me understand how you will measure success, beyond just big terms like closing the gap. how will you measure success specifically in the years to come? brian: it is good to be with you guys. we have a major infrastructure problem in the united states. we are 13th globally when it comes to our physical infrastructure. our roads are in bad need of repair. typical person pays $1000 in extra costs and wasted time and fuel. if you think about modern infrastructure like broadband, one in three households in rural areas of the country can't even

access high-speed internet. this is all holding our economy back. so as we think about coming out of this crisis and rebuilding, building back better, we need to train our focus on a big, bold set of practical investments in america. the american jobs plan is a historic capital investment in america. . our metric of success will be can we make a general in -- a generational investment improving things that impact people's lives, and do so in a way that creates millions of jobs in the process. that is the goal. that is what the president will be talking about today, and that is how we will be kicking off the legislative process. jonathan: we need to talk about private sector investment as well. any people will be asking how raising the corporate tax rate as we come out of a crisis helps develop private investment in america. brian: i did want to make an important point. these public investments are among the highest return investments in terms of spurring

private investments. we know public investments in airports return several dollars in private investments. public investments in basic r&d via the backbone for innovation off which private investment flows. we know these are the kinds of high-value investments that can spur the kind of private investment we need. we also think it is reasonable to look at how to cover the cost of that capital investment over the long-term. that is where the proposal comes in. corporate tax reform. let's end the race to the bottom. let's have a competitive tax system that encourages domestic investment in a way that over 15 years would raise sufficient revenue to cover this plan. tom: you will be in pittsburgh, in the vicinity of conor lamb's 17th congressional district. you need conor lamb's vote to get this done. how are you going to amend, adjust, establish the taxes to pay for this so that mr. lamb can be reelected? brian: in districts like that

and around the country, people feel and see why we need this investment. bridges are crumbling, schools are crumbling. there are 400,000 schools where kids are drinking water from lead pipes. tom: but how are you going to do the taxes? tell me how conor lamb is going to do this even the tax hesitancy from sea to shining sea. brian: here's what i would say. you look at the 2017 tax cut that pass without a single democratic vote. it was bad tax policy. it has encouraged were prophets in production -- encouraged more profits to move overseas, and it was deeply unpopular. we can raise revenue and invest in things that really matter to the american people. that is the basics of this. the corporate tax reforms we are talking about here would still leave the corporate rate lower than any year since world war ii other than the last couple of years in the wake of the trump tax cut. so we are talking about what is

reasonable and practical, and the investments would really change the game for families and places like western pencil when you. lisa: there's a radical economic -- western pennsylvania. lisa: they say radical economic sea change in what you're talking about. there was a thought that the private sector was more powerful than public sector. this investment says it needs to come from the government. it is infrastructure, but a lot of other programs as well. what evidence are you pointing to that public investing can be perhaps as efficient or more efficient in generating growth and pushing this economy ahead? brian: at the end of the day, private investment is what drives the economy forward, but at core, if we look back to where america has done great things, whether it is the building of the interstate highway systems or the space race, well-designed public investment can spur innovation and productivity and job growth all around america. we know that is true in things

like basic research, and things like physical infrastructure. for 40 years, we have undermined those basic drivers of economic growth. so this isn't about the public versus private sector. this is about public-sector investment that we know will actually generate cap growth. we know will help spur innovation across the economy. we have done it before as a country. this is not new. we have just not done it in quite some time, and we need to do it at historic scale. jonathan: something we have not discussed is state and local tax deductions. there are three house democrats basically saying no deal. what is your message to them this morning? brian: the president is going to put out his plan today. he's going to talk about why we need these investments and some of his ideas on how to pay for it. he is eager, and we are eager, to hear from everybody about their ideas. a lot of people are going to have ideas about how to structure those investment. people are going to have ideas about how to pay for this. some people may argue we don't need to pay for portions of

this. that is the conversation we need to move forward. the president is going to be clear he wants inputs from republicans and democrats alike. we want practical ways to move this forward. but these are investments that we cannot afford not to make. that is the message you will hear from the president. jonathan: from the republican side, they don't feel like you want their input whatsoever. the last $1.9 trillion bill, they don't feel like they were listen to -- they were listened to. are you just saying that? or is there something you are hearing from the republican side you would like to include? brian: i think this is an opportunity for us to work together and find common ground solutions. for years, democrats and republicans, the business community, the labor community have all been saying can't we come together and do something big on america's infrastructure. this is been happening for years. we have been saying this, but we haven't actually done it. we believe this is a unique opportunity, and we are absolutely committed to the idea

that we want to bring people together, hear their ideas, and find a way forward. tom: i want you to speak to the nation now. i am worried about those lousy bridges on route seven by middlebury and vermont. but i want you to speak about how far behind we are in internet and fast internet for our children learning across america. is this bill today going to solve that problem? brian: this crisis has exposed just how vulnerable we are as a country, the fact that we don't have the basic infrastructure backbone of the 21st century. we don't have high-speed reliable internet for everyone. there are kids around the country who are sitting in mcdonald's parking lots so they can get online to try to access school in america. tom: what are we going to do in this bill today that is going to fix the mcdonald's parking lot reality we see on the island of manhattan? brian: this bill is going to

commit $100 million to get 100% access to affordable broadband in this decade. it will do it by building out the physical elements we need, particularly in rural and remote areas, and it will do it by provera it -- by providing carrots to carriers. we need a one-time invest into public capital which will spur enormous amounts of private capital, and it is the right thing through so that our kids, families and businesses can actually get into the 21st century economy. lisa: this plan is thought of as a wish list as much as it is an outline for bidens plans. how negotiable is this at this point? where could we see it going in terms of the main nonnegotiable points? brian: i think if you go through this plan, every element of it reflects serious and thoughtful work that has been done over the course of years to identify gaps

in our infrastructure and how we could actually invest to solve them, like the issue of broadband we were just talking about. so we are going to ask people where they see opportunity here and where can we move the ball forward. but what the president is going to be uncompromising about is to say this is a moment where we need to make a big capital investment in the country. everybody recognizes that that is the case. the question is, can we actually get it done? that is what the president is going to be saying. jonathan: $2.25 trillion, and in the white house statement, the challenges of our time, the climate crisis and the ambitions of an autocratic china. can you spell out specifically to us how the challenges posed by the chinese communist party have shaped this bill in front of us, this plan? brian: one of the things the president is going to talk about today is that this moment is bigger. he mentioned earlier that the

world is watching. this is a moment where the question is can democracy succeed in delivering for their people. that is a question a lot of people are asking all around the world. so part of what we are trying to do or what the president is trying to do is make clear what the stakes are. we are falling behind in r&d, falling behind in investments, and supply chains in critical industries. american invest in our own domestic strengths in a way that will provide benefits to the world. we have already seen it with the rescue plan. we have seen increases in our own growth rate, but also spillovers in terms of demand for the world. that is the role that the american economy can play and american democracy can play in the world. jonathan: brian, great to catch up with you. let's talk soon, specifically on china. we would love to continue that conversation. tom keene, big plans, big ambitions, and china seemingly at the epicenter of a lot of this. tom: china may be at the

epicenter, but that might be just the bipartisan catalyst. it is just stunning when you look at the deficit dynamics we have in the nation. we digress, as he ice -- he is focused on jobs data come out is michael mckee -- on jobs data, is michael mckee, international economics and policy correspondent. do you just presume that the twin deficit expands out unimaginably given what we just heard from mr. deese? michael: it does expand tremendously. the problem is we don't know exact what is going to get passed because this plan also includes tax increases. i've never seen a government program that paid for itself. that is a standard washington line, but they could recoup some

of it. this is one of those economic proposals that you have to look at separately from just the headline because it creates not just the jobs now to build the roads, etc., but if you modernize the economy, it makes the economy more efficient, companies can make more money, and people's living standards go up. there's no argument among economists that that is something we need to do in this country. it is really more of how you pay for it. tom: ed hyman has a 3.4% employment model -- 3.4% on the lemon model out a couple of years -- 3.4 percent unemployment model out of a couple of years. michael: we have hated the -- we have had a declining labor force because the boomer generation has been retiring.

but it is going to be hard to find more workers, particularly in construction. we are already seeing that in private construction. this is going to be one of those cases where you are probably pulling back and retired people. we saw this in the late 1990's with the tech boom. you pull in retired people, all kinds of additional workers. we would be more immigration. jonathan: i think it is fair to say you will retire before me, tom keene -- before me, mike mckee, and tom retires after both of us. tom is right to bring it up for us this morning. does it even matter in d.c. anymore like it used to? michael: it depends on which party you are talking to. after donald trump lost, the republicans suddenly got religious on the deficit. there will be a fight over that. the question is can we pay for it. the argument is that with interest rates as low as they are, as long as we can have the economy grow faster than the debt as a percentage of gdp, we

can pay for it. you can almost go back 10 years to the start of the great financial crisis. it has not been a problem. we have not seen crowding out. we have seen interest rates do nothing but go down. it is going to be a great experiment, and we will see if they can make it work. tom: i'm feeling crowded out. jonathan: are you? in my crowding you out? is that why we are separated? tom: can you get my walker on the break? [laughter] jonathan: i got told off last time i said that. mike mckee, thank you, sir. lisa: dr. phil? i have him on speed dial. jonathan: let's touch on the price action. [laughter] is into the beautiful thing to be part of a markets program? it's a perfect crutch for everything. you guys are going to have to come up with something new other than let's check on the price

action. equity futures positive three points on the s&p 500. in the bond market, yields higher to 1.7226%. in foreign-exchange, negative headlines in europe once again. euro-dollar, $1.1735. what are the sources of upside surprise? are they in the united states as the markets higher, or in europe as the bar gets lower -- as the bar gets higher, or in europe as the bar gets lower? his romaine bostick that hear his romaine bostick -- here is romaine bostick. romaine: let's be clear, whether this makes it through the lyrical sausage grinder in congress range to be seen, but a lot of folks are already speculating about the winners and losers out of this. they are focused on a lot of the tax credits and the privacy industry incentives that are going to be baked into this program. it is going to benefit not

only the construction companies like caterpillar, but this is also about chips, also about telecom. we had norman anderson of c gla make it very c he think both of these proposals are going to make it through congress in some form another -- some form or another. he says it is going to be companies that are really going to benefit from it. steeple had a great report talking about.com -- about dycom. basically, if you are building any sort of 5g structure, dycom is a company you call up to do that. you talk about marvell, kla, it is those type of names that benefit from this. while everyone worries about how we are going to pay for this, there is an investment component to this, a private industry which into this that the private

industry is 100% on board with. here are some other stories going on out there that have nothing to do with taxation, nothing to do with baby boomers, tom. apple up today. a great upgrade on ubs all the way to buy. a lot of people starting to feel apple again. this company comes into favor, falls out of favor. at the end of the day, it is still the same juggernaut it has always been. canopy growth, the marijuana stock, they are on fire. now you've got chuck schumer here -- look, he's from your generation -- even he is on board. he is saying federal legalization actually now could be a thing. tom: you've got to -- you've got chewy up on the board. can you explain the linkage to the introductory bill? -- to the infrastructure bill? [laughter] tom: i'm not sure --romaine: i'm not sure there is a linkage.

as inflation goes through the roof, everyone is still going to spend on their dogs. maybe that is the contrarian play here. tom: this afternoon, important coverage of this infrastructure bill, romaine bostick leading that for the close. right now on where we are and where we are moving forward, darrell cronk with a very smart note from wells fargo, the chief investment officer from the wealth management group. we are thrilled there'll could join us this morning. i love what you have buried in your note about something from another time and place. it remind me of one lawrence kudlow at bear stearns, and that is the explosive growth in m2. explain the growth in the money supply, along with a boom economy. how did those two dovetail in, and why do i care? darrell: good morning, tom and jon and lisa. it is great to be back with you. m2 money supply growth is up 25% in the last year.

if you look at the chart on your bloomberg terminal, m2 is going parabolic. anytime you get that influx of liquidity into the system along with consumer net worths up 10% in 2020, notwithstanding the pandemic, and $1.3 trillion of savings sitting on the sidelines, looking to go somewhere in an interest rate environment -- in a zero interest rate environment, and if you tack on the infrastructure proposed by the administration today, you are up to $7.3 trillion over the last 12 months of fiscal stimulus, which, if you take that only $22 trillion economy, that is 32% fiscal stimulus. we didn't even see that post-world war ii. it is quite incredible. lisa: a lot of people say it has simply gone to asset price inflation and will remain there as people remain with somewhat suppressed wages. we are not necessarily going to get that pressure in the service

sector. how are you investing around this? is it a bet that stocks can keep going up despite interest rates, simply because of how much money there is out there? darrell: i think what people underestimate here is how much the dynamics of the prior cycle trend has changed. obviously in 2020, it was all tech, all the time. tech has come under pressure, as has health care. so it is really more about the procyclical trade. it is financials, industrials, materials, all those types of things. as the dollar has strengthened your to date so far -- strengthened year to date so far, industrials have outperformed the s&p by 10%. that shouldn't happen normally. usually when the dollar strengthens, it is hard on that reflation trade. yet you have seen that money coming in. some of that is going to go into green energy and all of the areas that we have been talking about that the administration is

going to focus on here. i do think the key thing, what's real yields. the last time we had a bear steepener in the curve like this , which was 2013, we moved 160 basis points in real yields in five months. this real yield move lately has been 50 basis point. so you have a lot more that can still go. tom: darrell, we need some video for jon's "the real yield" friday afternoon. are you telling me you can extrapolate out 160 deep launch on the real yield? darrell: no, but it can go higher. 50 basis points is basically nothing. let's be honest, and a world where you've got stimulus, a fed that is going to let inflation overshoot, why should investors tolerate 63 basis points of

negative real yields on the 10 year? they should not in a normalizing economy. but even if you get real yields to go back to zero, which they were at not so long ago, you are talking about a 25 on the 10 year. jonathan: had a bit of clarity from the ms trace in the last 20 minutes on this $2.25 trillion plan, with brian deese of the national economic council. some detail from jen psaki, the white house press secretary, and the last hour. the president will have more tax proposals in the coming weeks. what we learned this morning within this plan is something widely expected, lifting the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. that is the proposal. what we are learning from the white house press secretary is we will have more tax proposals in the coming weeks. tom: they are going to roll that out, but as we mentioned, with conor lamb and the 17th congressional district southwest of pittsburgh, i'm sorry, there is zero support. it is just not there.

jonathan: we will see. i think lisa nailed it when she asked the question. this is just the start of a negotiation, right? this the first move. lisa: and what is nonnegotiable at this point? jonathan: are you talking about -- tom: are you talking about infrastructure or my exit? jonathan: i think we've got some contract negotiations coming up soon. [laughter] equity futures up four, up about 0.1%. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is counting on business to pay for the 2.2 trillion dollar infrastructure plan he is unveiling today in pittsburgh. he wants to raise the corporate income tax from 21% to 28%. plus, there would be a 21% minimum tax on global corporate earnings. it calls for spending on transportation, research and develop and, care for the elderly and disabled. it is a victory for the u.s. tech industry. bloomberg has learned president

biden plans to allow pandemic related bands on visas for certain temporary workers to expire today. the moratorium affected h-1b visas used by tech companies to hire foreign coders and engineers. newburgh has learned that the chinese tariff of volvo cars may provide for an ipo of the unit. they are considering several exchanges to list shares. they have been looking for ways to fund investment needed for the shift to electric vehicles. reports that the justice department is investing republican congressman matt gaetz over an alleged sexual relationship with an underage girl. he is a close political ally of former president trump. "the washington post" says the probe was started by the trump justice department. gaetz says it is part of an

extortion plot against his family. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: a 2.2 $5 trillion

spending plan dominating the conversation this morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action on the s&p 500, shaping up as follows. we drift higher by almost six points. yields up two basis points. euro-dollar, $1.1731 after a big climb on the dollar index through most of this month. we've got to talk more about that plan, $2.25 trillion. 28% on the corporate tax rate. tom: that adp report will bring up the three day jobs report extravaganza. i am looking at morgan stanley. i see no information yet on what is wrong with that family office that had a difficult moment, if you will. kevin cirilli joins us on his washington. i brought up to mr. deese of the

white house what conor lamb of pittsburgh and this infrastructure bill, what does conor lamb need from his president? kevin: a significant way for how to pay for it. i thought that was the most revealing policy preinterview we were able to get from the white house. tom: that's because jon emily said it. kevin: seer -- because jon and lisette edit -- and lisa did it. kevin: seriously, when you're talking about raising taxes and new jobs for parts of the country like congers men lambs district, where these are -- like congressman lamb's district, where these are labor jobs, there's an opportunity to pitch new green jobs for manufacturing and working-class americans. i thought deese laid out the groundwork for that. but this is going to be the salesman and chief if he

wants to get any kind of piecemeal approach later this afternoon. tom: what will you listen for? kevin: i'm going to be listening for whether or not president biden invokes what he did nearly six years ago on labor day in 2015, when he ran through the streets of pittsburgh with union workers and was toying with the idea of running for president against hillary clinton. why is this so important? even in 2015, he said he would be able to build a coalition of union workers, blue-collar workers, working-class americans and southwestern parts of pennsylvania, ohio, and the rust belt. so is he wants to get the biden belt and road initiative through congress, he is not just going to need to unite democrats. he's going to need republicans. this is a significant longer-term play for the united states to invest in itself. jonathan:jonathan: sometimes these spending plans's part big -- plans start big and get smaller. i get the feeling that this is

going to get bigger because of the pushback from the democrats who want deductions, who might want recurring checks back. are there people out there who want to see this much bigger than $2.25 trillion? kevin: yes, they want a blank check. if they could do that ceremony where they are holding a check with no number on it, they would take it. but beyond that, candidly, what i am also going to be looking for is the committee structure from a procedural standpoint in congress and the piecemeal approach because there are republicans who would candidly join with democrats on the state and local tax deduction issue, but also some republicans who believe in cybersecurity, infrastructure, rare earth mineral lifting of restrictions to develop that another part of the country, think of intel in arizona. there is some overlap on some

pieces of infrastructure, but on free college and issues pertaining to that, that is just a democratic wish list. lisa: let's also talk about the potential ways we are going to pay for it. we have been talking about corporate taxes all morning. we have not been talking about the increase in taxes for those making more than $400,000 a year. what you hearing on this? there was a lot of uncertainty about whether it was a household earning 400,000 dollars, whether it was an individual, whether that was written in stone. kevin: candidly, we don't know, and we won't know specifically until the biden adminstration unveils this. there have been conflicting reports specifically as it relates to the tax codes. i think until you have something in writing from an administration, i don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves. with regards to taxes, republicans feel that was one of the crowning achievements of the previous administration. so the idea that democrats now are going to walk that back, whether it is corporate, personal income or household income, is a significant

departure. that ideological clash, especially when we are now just a year-and-a-half out from midterm elections debate, in terms of trying to forecast tax policy in the united states, it is incredibly uncertain. jonathan: the president's address, some q&a or no? kevin: i don't know, but i think that's a good point. we will see if he takes any questions. jonathan: we need some questions. it is a big plan. kevin cirilli, washington correspondent and host of bloomberg's "sound on" on bloomberg radio. for some democrats, not big enough. tom: but it could come in pieces. whatever your politics, this is a revolution, jon. kc change, if you want to use that phrase -- a seachange, if you want to use that phrase. maybe this will be pulled back a

little bit. then you get to the politics of the election and what is that third step out if you are going to have one. jonathan: the deficit just doesn't seem to matter anymore. this applies to the previous administration as well. the fiscal hawks, that is something that exists when you are outside of power. when you are in power in america, it is not in the same conversation in any way, shape or form. lisa: post-1980, smaller government is better. reagan set that off. there's a question of whether joe biden will be able to create an image of big government being good again after a lot of people pointed at inefficiencies. to me, this economic conundrum underpins the fiscal plans across the world as people widen out the deficit and say public sectors need to spend more. this to me remains to be seen. at the same time, there is recognition of what has happened over the past 20 or 30 years. has it benefited the lower and middle class? jonathan: do you, for that phrase from last week's news conference from the president,

when the president talked about uniting the country, but maybe not uniting congress? it will be interesting to see how united the country is behind this plan. tom: i am certain i can say this, the country is desperate for improved infrastructure. it is a national embarrassment top to bottom. every state, every constituency. jonathan: he needs to unite his party now behind this because, as lisa has mentioned throughout the morning, the pushback won't just come from republicans. they will be democrats who don't like what they see as well. tom: twin deficits, that adding of the deficit in the current account deficit, those dynamics abroad and the dynamics of fiscal are out five or six standard deviations. all you need to know is that as a medical chart, not in cannot text books. jonathan: coming up, we will speak to the miami marlins ceo derek jeter and loan depots ceo as well.

isn't that a yankees player? tom: that is a yankees player, the only yankees player that red sox fans can tolerate. lisa: oh really? tom: he is extraordinary. jonathan: and antony shea. but i got jeter right of the yankees.

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♪ >> that sort of immediate shutdown is very mechanically driven. it is completely unnatural as far as recessions go. so now the recovery is somewhat unnatural as well. >> this has built a lot of momentum as the year goes on, so i think this will heat up. >> we are relatively early in the global recovery. i think it is going to be quite a sharp recovery. >> expect more bouts of extreme volatility because that is a relief valve in the market place. >> my concern is we get into a fully employed economy late next year, and nobody sees the top

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