this in terms of the pandemic, the rebound, stimulus. it is totally unique. >> very mechanically driven. completely unnatural. now, the recovery is somewhat unnatural as well. >> i think we see 2% on the 10 year as all of the spending becomes reality. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance". jonathan: welcome. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." leaving behind the first quarter. looking forward to a beaming q2. tom: i thought timing yesterday was really something looking at the granular data. part of that is claims this morning and into this jobs report. can you imagine the underemployment rate coming

down? we will talk about that. jonathan: some things we need to work on. you know what outperformed the s&p 500? the stoxx 600. the european equity markets. tom: you were great on this yesterday. europe has got a huge bottom to come off of. you wonder in q2 if that is a surprise. where is your euro-dollar right now? that is a surprise for q1. lisa: the idea here of this diverging global fate. the irony that the dax outperforms u.s. stocks at a time when europe is outperforming. one of the biggest take backs of the first quarter, one of the biggest takeaways was the u.s.

exceptionalism. that was the dominant theme. that is what was the presiding trade. question is, will it continue given the ongoing consensus for a hotter, but shorter cycle? jonathan: let me get to the price action. i'm going to leave you both behind. equity futures up 13 on the s&p 500. we had a little look over the fence at 4k yesterday. did not quite get past it. in the bond market, yields up through the first quarter by almost 80 basis points. an unreal move higher. as the euro move, euro-dollar 11738. just about holding onto 117. lisa: hopefully, we can get some action before the weekend. we are going to be getting a preview of perhaps what to

expect tomorrow. initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. 680,000 new initial jobless filings. this is still unusually high. yes, the number is coming down and is the lowest in a year, however, the painfully slow nature of this labor market recovery really is evident. the question is, are we at a tipping point as people get vaccinated and start living their lives in a more comprehensive way. what i am looking for is evidenced of supply chain slow down that we have seen coming out across the world. the expectation force applied chain's rep sent to be the most since 1974. how is it feeding into slowing down. joe holding his first cabinet meeting.

perhaps, we will get a sense of who will be leading the charge, of who will be getting this done. this messaging opportunity will happen today. jonathan: let's talk about the messaging around the plan. the bay conversation is how further to the left that gets pulled. it will take eight years to act out this vision. tom: it is just not enough. i thought jason furman was very good. i don't want to get into the politics of the makeup of $2.5 trillion, but i think it is our duty to put in perspective what that is. it comes in at just under 1% of gdp. i calculated over 15 years, that slides down to 0.6% of real gdp 15 years out.

how big is this 15 year program? jonathan: that is what is interesting. typically, you start at a big number and then it comes in. there is a sense this big number becomes bigger. lisa: this is the beginning point of discussion. how quickly can they get anything through? will the smaller pieces end up being significantly larger than $2.5 trillion? that seems to be the pace of discussion. tom: there is a pothole on 3rd avenue. jonathan: several. tom: every cap i am in, we hit the axle. i just wanted to fix the pothole. jonathan: what is it about new york state, as soon as you cross over into a different state, the roads get smoother again. you know when you have made it to connecticut. lisa: there should be a sign. tom: it is not europe. full disclosure. i know it is only $630 billion.

it is an outrage where this nation is versus when you travel to europe or even parts of asia jonathan: jonathan: over the better infrastructure. switzerland, specifically. let's bring in ron temple. huge first quarter. we know the winners, the banks, energy and small caps. can this continue? >> i think there could still be upside in markets. i think what we have got is a really powerful recovery. when i look at growth, i think we are going to see the strongest economic growth in 50 years. you have that pent up savings. excess savings of $2 trillion. massive pent-up demand to spend that money. government stimulus and very importantly, central banks that are not only going to keep their foot on the gas, they are going to keep adding accommodations to this economy. i think this is a very strong

set up for the economy. tom: i was going to go to your really wonderful research not where you -- i have a note here at the end of the quarter, s&p 500 over the last decade has not done the single-digit return people like you predicted. everybody else was in the single-digit assumption. it is 15.55% a year for whatever sets of reasons. is this a great missed call that we assume single-digit equity return and we were wrong? >> i think the starting point always matters. i do think most people who try to make these forecasts always are on the conservative side. if you get it right, you get a lot of notoriety, but i think there has been a missed call in terms of we have always been looking backward.

i guess you always have to think about context. what these kind of interest rates, it does not make sense to assume they should trade at the same as they always did. i do think you can continue to have upside in these markets and it is going to be driven by earnings growth and perhaps even more multiple expansion. the more important thing is to watch for the rotation in the market. i think that lisa: lisa: is going to be important. i want to pick up on something you said. at these kinds of interest rates, the multiples may be somewhat different. these interest rates are changing. we just had the worst first quarter going back to 1980. it looks like you are among those who perhaps see we could see a further loss of the head. at what point does not start to change the multiple expectation that what you are pricing in first stocks can actually bring down your expectations and prompt you to sell?

>> when i pointed out that there is a rotation, i think this is a really important part of equities. i think what is more important is looking within the market and seeing what might be hurt by those rising interest rates. i do think we can continue to see steepening in the yield curve. i think a 10 year yield is likely over the next few months. i think investors have to become a bit more critical of buying companies whose share prices are driven by cash flow. what you might think as this kind of turbocharged road stock, it really led the rally. you have to start thinking about what discount rate you apply. tom: exactly. >> there are other companies earning money now you should pay more for. >> i mentioned this the other day. do we have to adjust our terminal rate and the timeline because of all of this fiscal

mumbo-jumbo we are all dealing with? >> i think you'd use -- i think you do need to be raising your rate and thinking about what am i paying for and when like at that cash. i think there are some substantial parts of the market that are still an expensive where you are getting cash now and either getting a cyclical upturn or you have really high quality companies that can compound their quality over time and grow those from a high pace. i think it is going to get a more nuanced rotation within the markets. i would argue it is a quality growth positive story. a negative story for business plans. less of a business and more plan. jonathan: good to see you. leaving behind a mom -- monster first quarter. lisa mentioned the lack of performance of treasuries.

a first quarter was about expecting what would happen through the rest of the year. the outlook. q2 is the show me the money quarter. this is about the data and that starts this friday. tom: it starts with the jobs report, but also with the beginning percolation. i talked -- mccormick was well this year. a lot of important points to get to q2 and maybe the mystery of q3, but i don't think we have a clue on the framework of q4 and he won in the next year. jonathan: the word deceleration, which we have been investigating over the last couple of weeks comes up more and more. we have heard several people start to say that boom times they have anticipated for 21, they are also starting to think about 22 in the first quarter. lisa: could we get burning hotter and shorter and how much can people look through the

inflationary? jonathan: i'm just navigating the next couple of hours. tom: the weekend is almost here. jonathan: i'm almost there. tom: no one is around to judge me. i can't see clearly. jonathan: coming up next, jared bernstein, white house counsel look at -- of economic advisors. this is bloomberg. > republicans in congress are opposed to the way president ayden wants to take his infrastructure plan. he wants to raise the corporate tax and set a 21% minimum tax on global corporate earnings. mitch mcconnell calls the plan a trojan horse that brings with it more borrowed money and massive tax hikes. an alarming sign in europe is

once again losing control of the pandemic. france's president announced a nationwide four-week lockdown. that represents a reversal from macron who favored a localized approach which the u.k. also tried with little success. opec's official warning that oil demand remains fragile. opec and its allies meet today with talks on whether to prolong their production cutbacks. another blow to hong kong's beleaguered opposition. the father of democracy and a media mogul were convicted of attending a non-authorized protest in 2019. five others also were convicted and will be sentenced next month. the verdict came shortly after china approved a plan that effectively ends open elections in hong kong.

this is bloomberg. ♪

>> today, i am proposing a plan for the nation that rewards

work, not just wealth. that builds a fair economy that gives everybody a chance to succeed and is going to create the strongest, most resilient innovative economy in the world. it is not a plan that tinkers around the edges. it is a once in a generation investment in america. jonathan: the president of the united states unveiling a spending plan. here is the thursday morning price action shaping up. the s&p 500, we whip through the quarterly numbers later. right now, up 13 on the s&p. bond markets, yields lower by two basis points. hire through the previous three months. quite a rout in treasury. commodity market, much more on this later as well. up 2.5 percent on crew to $60.

before we start ground -- drowning in glue, can i bring up the latest data around vaccinations? 2.8 3 million doses a day over the last seven days. that is her daily average vaccinations in america. tom: and the announcement of delta airlines that they will fill the middle seat at some point, maybe part of the pandemic celebration. there are variant issues out there. nasdaq leading the way two days in a row. jack joins us. let me point simply to the bridge that the president has to get to the democratic party middle. did he succeed at that yesterday? >> the middle of the party, yes. what he is really going to do

next is win over either all of the progressives to make this bipartisan and get republican support. the complaints on either end of the spectrum are about the size and scope. on the republican side is the tax. tom: cut to the chase after the 14 articles john read. lisa knows more than we do. cut to the chase. who has the power here as we go to a debate of this bill? >> probably, more the progressives. there is an expectation among lawmakers i talked to that republicans are not going to get on board. they were criticizing this before it even came out. the basic numbers are getting so much republican pushback that the next question probably is what can you do through this process of reconciliation that lets you do something partisan? they are going to try to get republicans. it looks good there, sure, you can drop progressive votes.

to your question, he has won over the mainstream democrats, the bulk of democrats, but the margins are so narrow that these two ends are very much pitted against each other. based on the republican reactions, it looks more likely he is going to be able to work with progressives than a good number of republicans. lisa: can you talk a little bit about how likely this is this plan will get broken up into many pieces that some could actually get through sooner than later? i'm thinking of the $100 billion in spending to support the semiconductor research in the united states. >> the packaging and sequencing is one of the hard parts. what you mentioned about semiconductors, the largely bipartisan portion of this relating to china, could get broken off. there is going to be a separate announcement of a roughly trillion dollars on the more human capital childcare staff.

i've said progressives have a lot of influence here, they want to push this through. the questions around what you can and can't do through reconciliation to do this in a partisan way had a lot of uncertainty. this is very much up in the air. there is talk of one big packets, but it could be two or three. it is possible that $100 billion or so gets broken up on its own. it wouldn't be surprising to see two or more. jonathan: i know many people are asking yesterday, where are the other tax hikes? what are your thoughts on that? jonathan: they -- >> they went with a pretty basic push for what the biden campaigned on. not all of what biden campaigned on, but they are basically breaking this up into the corporate size goes in this announcement and then they are

going to follow up with more on the income tax hikes for the next announcement. again, it is not clear how ultimately congress will package this together, but there is more to come on the income portion of this in the next announcement in the next couple of weeks. jonathan: how are they framing? is it a big redistribution effort? how are they framing it right now. >> you could argue some of this that they have already announced is a redistribution effort. based on some of the climate change stuff. a number of things in here are set aside for communities that have been struggling economically. really, they have previewed this next one as sort of the broader human capital package. honestly, they have not really gotten to that. they have been playing at this one so much as a massive economic boost that we will have to see exactly what the message

is for the second one. it is going to be sort of paired as the next part of this one largely broad economic boost for both of these packages. jonathan: good to catch up. so many decisions that have not lisa: lisa: been made yet. this feels very much like a starting point negotiation. we are probably not going to get anything concrete potentially until after the august recess in washington, d.c., raising questions on what can potentially get broken up sooner than that. they have until the midterm elections to get something done with the democratic majority. it seems like that is the race right now. jonathan: you have seen this a million times before. what is different? tom: what is different is the romance of another time and place where we actually pass legislation. there is a considered memory and america about what used to be the political process.

that was a celebration yesterday and it runs up against the hard reality. this is the number one thing. the clock is ticking to november 8, 2022. lisa: you asked this really good question. what is different this time? i think it is two decades of inflation that have lagged behind. suddenly, the idea of the phillips curve is being thrown out. the idea of inflation is being thrown out and everywhere around the world, governments are printing more money. that, to me, is a key difference marking this economic cycle. jonathan: a group of policymakers conditioned by the previous cycle. coming up, michael. good morning to you all. equity futures doing nicely on the nasdaq. we advanced .3%.

yields up through q1 by almost 83 basis points. from new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. surveillance.

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." q1 was about expecting a better year ahead. q2 is about actually seeing the data. ahead of that, q1 on the s&p 500, up a couple of percentage points. more than 12% through q1. right now, equity futures doing nicely. up .9%. in line with a better outlook. yields up almost 83 basis points. some stabilization the last couple of days. we course corrected and this is where we stayed. 172 right now.

it down a couple of basis points as we come in around three basis points. this is what is important to me. it is about expectations relative to the data. the surprise index of bloomberg for the u.s.. the lessons we learned coming out of the last big reopening effort at the end of last spring into last summer. the bar was set too low. this economy absolutely surged through expectations with huge positive surprises. you can see that deeper into summer and fall. we believe that there. lisa: good luck. jonathan: let me just get to the final point. the bar is so much higher than where it was last time because we have been conditioned by the last reopening effort. what is going to be interesting for me is to see how this performs and compare and contrast this with what you expect out of europe and

elsewhere. tom: it is absolutely extraordinary what we see in a boom economy. michael pond owns a high ground in inflation analysis. he is at barclays and his team on the street is absolutely iconic in getting the inflation call right. he writes hyper-detailed research reports. i don't understand most of it. it is way too complicated and we are thrilled michael pond is here today to give us light on our inflation fears. interview after interview, it is out there. there is a gloom about rising inflation. are you gloomy? michael: i am inflation strategist. how could i be gloomy about the potential for a rise in inflation?

we actually want some inflation. tom: you want some inflation. do you have an analog right now back to the 1960's or 1970's? or do you say in a boom economy that this time is different and your study of inflation will be different into 2024? michael: last summer, our group with our economists wrote a piece with the title of, don't believe the hype. we still believe in the and it is proven true so far. cpi right now is at 1.3%. all of those saying we were going to get inflation like you have never seen, so far have been proven wrong. the re-inflation trade is not really about inflation today, it is about what is going to happen with inflation when demand comes back may be by the summer or q3 and supply chains can't keep up

with demand. that is when you could have some inflation. we really won't know how this inflation story plays out probably until the third quarter. jonathan: that is what is important about this debate. when you can no longer say it is transitory. at some point, it is crunch time for this debate. is it tom: tom: q3, is it later? is it q3 or later? we don't know. give us an idea of your inflation strategy now. for our global wall street audience, what is the core strategy? michael: despite our view that inflation is not about to surge, although we do expect cpi to rise to 2.3% by the end of next year, a modest rise, we think investors will be positioning for higher inflation. from the beginning of the year,

we have been pretty bullish on the inflation market even though we have not been bullish on inflation itself. we think investors are going to be more worried about higher inflation than they have been in a decade. lisa: let's talk about whether they are justified. some people are thinking the reason we got subpar sub inflation is because of china, the rise of china and suppressing costs to a lot of the labor. this is what rendered the phillips curve obsolete. now, we have an impulse of trying to bring supply chains home. does this make it more likely we get a faster inflation then perhaps people are expecting given the change in the global landscape? michael: there are many structural factors that most .2 when thinking about why inflation has been low. china and globalization, china

from the mid-80's is one of them. more confidence in the fed's ability to push inflation lower is another. that could reverse in the sense that they are actively shooting for higher inflation then their target for a bit. what we could see is inflation exceed their target for a bit. and then that gets embedded in inflation expectation. there are other factors that make you think inflation low. e-commerce, the more transparent prices are, the more difficult it is for businesses to raise prices. the shift to online shopping, which has only been accelerated during the pandemic, is another structural factor that is likely to keep inflation from rising on a structural basis. we could see transitory inflation. right now, the fed has said it

is sitting on its hands not just through the base affects we get over the next several months, but also the potential for inflation on a temporary basis is the way they see it in the fall. we could see the fed saying they are going to see this is transitory all the way through the end of this year. the market may not be so patient. lisa: is it just me, or does it feel like the range of potential inputs to inflation seems to be getting wider and wider. the conviction just isn't there. a lot of humility when it comes to understanding inflation. jonathan: we are not talking about inflation per se, that is what is interesting about this. there are a lot of people watching this right now, maybe sitting in the real world i don't talk about pc.

as far as they are concerned, prices happen going up for a long time. what do you make of that distinction? and then this conversation that we have about lowflation and low prices for a long time? michael: we hear that a lot from investors. i throw asset prices, stocks, house prices as well. you mentioned pce and cpi measure shelter costs through rents. most individuals look at housing prices through house prices. those have been rising quite rapidly over the past year. that can get embedded in consumer inflation expectations and market inflation expectations as well. when it comes to the inflation market, it is based on the cpi. that could certainly filter to expectations which lead to

higher inflation. we get that question a lot over the decade plus. it has not mattered. perhaps it will this time around. jonathan: i do wonder, we have not spent nearly and a time talking about it. if they start to see high prices, they will pass that on to the consumer if they believe high prices are here to stay. how are you monitoring that right now? michael: what we are seeing so far is that price indicators on the business side are rising pretty sharply whether we look at china ppi or input prices. or the u.s. ppi, yesterday, we saw a nice, high number from the prices paid component of the survey. that is certainly consistent with other surveys. what we are seeing is businesses are experiencing this rise in inflation, but they are still

having trouble passing on to consumers. later this year's perhaps when they could pass on the consumers and we see a rise. jonathan: don't be a stranger. the tolerance of consumers to higher prices. i remember one person coming on talking about this and we talked about the lack of tolerance to higher prices. tom: into his research, and i really want to emphasize his work is hyper acute within the fixed income space, his word of anchored expectations. pond is doing trades against that. i would say it is a mystery. we really don't know the anchoring of expectations at the fed level or at the market level as we go through a boom economy. jonathan: at least for the

consumer level and business level. lisa: i think it is good you bring in the point of real-world versus some of these measures the fed looks at. there's also a question of good inflation burn -- versus bad inflation. if lumber prices start going up, you see a slowdown in home sales. the input is not there. at what point does that stymie some of the momentum the fed is counting on to get this economy off its feet? jonathan: prices paid have been surging. a little bit on that later. from new york city this morning, good morning. i tend to get through this morning. a big spending plan down in washington, d.c. and we need to touch on credit suites. is it fast becoming a problem child of european banking. have you noticed how little we have talked about deutsche bank over the last couple of weeks?

we will do that in just a couple of moments. futures up 11 points on the s&p 100. yields up a couple of basis points to kick off q2. this is bloomberg. >> president biden says he is open to good-faith negotiations with lawmakers on his two point $2 trillion infrastructure plan. republicans already are making it clear they don't like the way the president wants to pay for the spending. he has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28% plus eight rise on corporate global earnings. the price tag of a democratic proposal may drive away

republican support. chuck schumer plans to wrap several china-related bills into one package. that includes $50 billion for semiconductor r&d. johnson & johnson is downplaying the situation and says the company met its most recent vaccine target and says none of the doses made in the u.s. a far have come from the plant where the error happens. egypt says it may seek around $1 million in compensation for the suez canal crisis. the authority called a rough estimate of losses linked to transit fees and the cost of dredging and salvage operations. it was once -- the evergreen was the ship that got stuck. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> this is a critical moment in our fight against the pandemic. as we see increases in cases, we

can't afford to let our guards down. we are so close. it's very close to getting back to the everyday activities we all miss so much. jonathan: the cdc contrasted against the hopes yielded by the vaccine rollout in america. from vaccine -- from new york this morning, good morning. picking off the second quarter with equities higher. up .9% on the nasdaq 100. yields are coming in a couple of basis points on tens. keeping an eye on the equity markets. had a sneak peek at 4k on the s&p 500. want to bring you a break and had lines from pfizer. they released a long time follow-up from the phase 3 tile -- trial.

the effort confirming there is no serious safety concerns and the shot is more than 91% effective after six months. let me read that line again. the pfizer shot more than 91% effective after six months. tom: we have a great booking team that magically mass -- matches our bookings to breaking headlines. we have the perfect guests right now to talk about this and all of us dealing with what should we do, what should our behavior be in the coming months. amber's expert on what we call risk behavior. she is knee-deep and what we do with our behavior given medical crisis. thank you so much for joining us. we are changing our behavior now and pros like you are worried about rising cases and rising hospitalizations and a fourth

wave. do we risk a fourth wave with our behavior based on pandemic optimism? >> good morning. absolutely. we have seen rates increase for the past week or two across all states. we are in a moment where there is a lot of reason for optimism. we have more than one quarter of all americans have their first dose of the vaccine. the end is in sight. things will be getting better, but we are not there now. we are seeing rates rising because people are not being cautious. tom: this is normal behavior. there is that optimism at the end of the book that the pandemic keeps going. for our listeners and viewers across this nation and worldwide, what is the best practice right now to manage our optimism? >> a year into this pandemic, we do know what behaviors transmit

the infection and we do know how to be safe. people want to see their friends and loved ones. we understand we can be social while still physically distancing. we need to maintain mask wearing when you are getting together with unvaccinated people, not get together in large groups. and we are seeing people not make those choices. lisa: there's a question of what happens when we are perhaps six months post pandemic. how often we have to revisit covid, whether covid will become an omnipresent virus we have to grapple with and continues to mutate. this pfizer study crucial in indicating perhaps the vaccination has a longer-lasting shelf life. what is your sense based on the budding research of how present coronavirus will be and also, with respect to the vaccines, how long-lasting their effect will be? >> this is a race right now of the virus versus the vaccine.

it depends on several factors. we do have high efficacy of the virus, of the vaccine. it looks like the vaccine is also going to be in -- effective in younger individuals. viruses mutate. with the initial research we have, it suggests it will last for months and probably years. the vaccine efficacy or natural immunity from infection. it is very likely we will need some kind of booster shot at some future point. it won't be lifelong protection. lisa: do you have a sense of what herd immunity means now that we are getting an acceleration of vaccinations? >> yeah. herd immunity is not an exact point, but we do need to have a critical mass of people vaccinated before we get the benefit of reduced transmission. we are going to need to see the

majority of americans vaccinated. more than 50%. likely 60% or 70% before we start to see the benefit. it is a matter where the more individuals that are vaccinated, the higher the benefit is. tom: when you see delta airlines say things are better and we are going to fill the middle seat in economy on an airplane, how does a pro like you respond? >> these are really difficult choices. if there are vaccinated individuals wearing masks and getting together in a middle seat, the risk is going to be lower. if it is unvaccinated individuals, if people are making choices before they get on the planes that have put them at increased risk, it really is a concern. i see is opening up at the same time. we need to be driven by the data. things were looking good a few weeks ago, but they have taken a real turn for the worse.

i think that is why the alarm is being raised. we need to follow the data and it suggests the increases we see -- we need to turn this around if we don't want to see a huge fourth wave. jonathan: come back soon. you mentioned the airlines, united indicating domestic demand in america almost totally recovered already just after q1. tom: it is out there. i witnessed it. i think you are going to capri or wherever you are going. jonathan: i don't know if i'm coming back. tom: the basic idea is we are all racing. again, i'm going to go to the micro headlines we are seeing. and much more interested in the tick by tick earnings revenues than i am about the big picture. jonathan: let me go over these

headlines from pfizer. the data they are looking at indicates that the shot remains effective 91% effective after six months. this does not mean it is not effective after six months, it just means it is still effective. the additional line i want to add is the following. the shot remains effort -- efficacy against the south african vaccine. lisa: this is feeding into the optimism that we can beat the pandemic. i think the focus is also going to be on the booster shot. are people going to fill you out -- going to feel ill after it? jonathan: we are all waiting to get some kind of guidance from the cdc on what you can do if you have been vaccinated and yet this week, they have remained

really gloomy. i imagine you're going to have to wait. equities higher by 10 points on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up week, by .9%. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

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♪ >> your kind of doorstep -- we are kind about the doorstep finally getting an idea of what this recovery looks like. >> in terms of the rebound, the stimulus, it is totally. in >> we are going to see rates move higher. i think we see 2% on the 10 year as all of this spending becomes a reality. >> there is certainly capacity to move to the upside. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: goodbye q1. hello, q2. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. leaving behind a monster first quarter for the banks. the banks in america on the s&p 500 up almost 23%. tom: