your kind of doorstep -- we are kind about the doorstep finally getting an idea of what this recovery looks like. >> in terms of the rebound, the stimulus, it is totally. in >> we are going to see rates move higher. i think we see 2% on the 10 year as all of this spending becomes a reality. >> there is certainly capacity to move to the upside. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: goodbye q1. hello, q2. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. leaving behind a monster first quarter for the banks. the banks in america on the s&p 500 up almost 23%. tom: didn't mention the banks in

the last hour. they got a wake-up call at the end of q1. reversion to the mean, or is it the mean reality of a boom economy, and they will continue to prosper? there's a great opinion on that right now on the street. jonathan: the expectations, where are we now with the median estimate? tom: 650. jonathan: that grouping around one million shining bright. tom: as michael feroli mentioned yesterday from j.p. morgan, it is still 7 million bodies returning to the workforce. are we talking about job growth or actually just pandemic healing? jonathan: i think we are thinking both, and that is the issue going forward. q2, q3, show me the money. lisa: that is going to be the key question. one of the key question marks has been what people are going to do in the united states with more than $2 trillion of excess

savings. how are they going to spend it as they can go out? leisure travel is rebounding with a vengeance. people are calling this revenge travel. people just want to go away. jonathan: what did chris harvey call this at wells fargo, i don't spring break? -- wells fargo, adult spring break? lisa: we need it. jonathan: let's get to the markets. equity futures up by 11. that might be an april fools. yields come in on tens after breaching 1.77% earlier this week. we had a monster move in treasury yields through the first quarter. foreign-exchange stable. $59 handle on wti, up about 1.3%. lisa: that is i had of an opec meeting where they will decide whether to keep the caps on oil production, as we expect things to remain muted, especially with what is going on in europe.

today, jobs front and center. at eight: 30 am, u.s. initial jobless claims. expecting 680,000 new jobless claims. that is still a lot. we are still talking about initial jobless claims that exceed prior records. this is incredible, how slow the recovery has been. show me the data. that is very much what people are going to be looking for going forward. tenant like a.m., we get the ism manufacturing data out of the united states, following some other manufacturing data at 9:00 -- 10:00 a.m., we get the ism manufacturing data out of the united states, following some other manufacturing data at 9:00. at 1:15 p.m., president biden holding his first cabinet meeting. the timing not coincidental, given the fact he is trying to push forward this infrastructure plan. we call it an infrastructure plan as shorthand for this wide-ranging planned that will

probably be -- this wide-ranging plan that will probably be broken into many pieces. it is an agenda. the question is whether it will get done in with whose support. jonathan: let's talk about that spending plan right now. something that jump off the page , the greatest challenges of our lifetime. you would expect them to say climate change. the second piece, the ambitions of an autocratic china. this present has talked repeatedly about china potentially eating our lunch. the former president would talk about the fact that they already have done. tom: the 2.25 trillion dollars folds into cyber and all of that, but it is really about information technology, not only domestically, but also to get an edge on them competitively worldwide. what i see is huge agreement on bridges, tolls, internet structure across the nation. that is where we engage. part of that engagement is about china. jonathan: let's bring in jared watered now, bank of america

head of the research investment committee. -- jared woodard now, bank of america head of the research investment committee. what does that mean? jared: this goes from a very narrow fight on soybeans and maybe semiconductors to the future, a much more open-ended, all hands on deck globalization. that is what it looks like, anyway. if we look at the bill, one of the things we saw, although there is this bipartisan rhetoric, there is some unanimity politically in congress. congress voted unanimously i believe to de-list chinese adrs from u.s. exchanges last year. if you think about research and development which is undoubtedly the frontlines of the future of new technology and who is going to win the future, i think the

china national parties congress just approved millions for r&d. -- approved billions for r&d. it doesn't sound like catching up to me. tom: folks, it is rare that someone of any bank puts out a research report where the world stops. i think jon, lisa and i can agree that when woodard publishes, the whole world stops to read what he is talking about. what do you end bank of america say about what institutions are going to do with their cash? what does global wall street do with their cash in a boom economy? jared: there is some reason for optimism because our view at bank of america is that we are on the cusp of one of the biggest booms in modern history. you would have to go back to ronald reagan to see a period

over the next five years that will look quite like this one. we do expect industrial technology, other firms are going to be expanding capacity rapidly. part of that is inorganic rebound coming out of the recession, but part of that is finding on net demand to build into her the first time in a long time. we do expect this is going to be new building in property, plants and equipment. not just intellectual property, not just ways to squeeze more efficiency out of workers which has been the quinn for quite a long time -- which is been the trend for quite a long time. our economists and analysts expect a wide-ranging surge, and i think that is going to be a real positive for u.s. gdp. lisa: how do you factor in potentially higher taxes on corporations with this expectation for a capex boom? jared: it is a tricky moment. a lot of corporate leaders are going to push back about this. i think the thing to keep in

mind from the biden adminstration if this is undoubtedly an opening bid. you have to show two progressives that you tried to take taxes on the rich, taxes on corporations, etc. so that you can make compromises. i don't think anyone thinks that the final bill that gets passed will look like this. but if you grow the pie enough, paying a slightly higher share of taxes is a trade well worth making. jonathan: this is the analysis. what is the market call? jared: the market call is that reopening is priced in. the summer spending, the wet hot american summer we are about to get where everyone goes a low but nuts for a little while is going to feel great for the real economy. it is already priced into wall street, and may not feel great to wall street. remember april of 2020, you had the real economy in tatters and

stocks ripping higher. i think we are about to see something more like the rivers, where the real economy reopened, it is a great time for people who need to find jobs, and markets don't really have that much to go on, so it could be a little bit of a digestion moment. i think what matters more is what happens when you do see infra structure pass. -- when you do see infrastructure passed. it is one of these unusual moments where you want to sell the rumor and by the news. buy once you know what is in the bill and what will get done, and on that front, investors have not at all priced anything in for what is going to come. it is just going to require a lot more analysis when we get there. lisa: i want to finish on this idea of how individuals are going to spend cash, not just corporations. you had the idea that 69% of the excess savings in the united states, that more than $1.5 trillion has gone to the top 25%

of income earners. the idea that they are less likely to spend perhaps not as inflationary as people expected. can you please elaborate on that? jared: we know from history that folks who have a lot of money don't tend to spend it in an aggressive way if they get a little more. that is not true for lower and middle income households, who are sort of hand to mouth, every paycheck matters. historically when you give extra income to the bottom bracket, they will spend it more. that has been true with the biden adminstration and the trump administration with getting eight out to people. some respondents are telling us that they are going to save most of it. keep it in cash, pay off debt, maybe save it in some financial assets, put it into the market. but they are not going to be spending it in the real economy to the degree that history would expect. that's why we expect a surge in

inflation the summer, but that by next december, we are back below 2% inflation. jonathan: before you run, let's talk about something economists suggest. one million tomorrow, one million payrolls growth. what is behind it? jared: i think you are seeing in some parts of the country, where folks are keeping it tight, things haven't changed very much from six or nine months ago. other parts of the country, they've reopened already, and i think that is going to feed into the jobs numbers. people want to get back to normal. employers want to get back to normal. they are not waiting for the cdc. jonathan: that's for sure. jared woodard, good to see you. the reopening is priced in. the nasdaq ripping right now, up 0.9%. the s&p up just 0.3%. tom: equities all green on the screen. some correlation, not as tight as the last couple of days.

everyone focuses on 8:30. jonathan: initial jobless claims just around the corner. before we get there, he's been a guiding light through the opening and this equity market rip. it's mike wilson of morgan stanley, and he joins us at 8:00 a.m. eastern. in new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. pfizer's coronavirus vaccine remain highly effective after six months, according to new long-term results. trials showed the vaccine was 91% effective in preventing symptomatic cases. the time period went from one week after the second dose to six months after. republicans in congress are opposed to the way president biden wants to pay for his $2.2 trillion infra structure plan. the president wants to raise the corporate tax rate and set a 21% minimum tax on global corporate earnings. senate republican leader mitch mcconnell called the president's

plan a trojan horse that brings with it more borrowed money and massive tax hikes. opec's warning that oil demand remains fragile. secretary-general mohammed barkindo said, "we should not be out just yet." and another blow to hong kong's beleaguered opposition. there so-called father of democracy artan lee -- democracy marginally -- democracy martin lee and billion air jimmy lai have been found guilty and will be sentenced.

terms of the deal weren't disclosed. they opened up a showroom in london last year and talk about the hopes to win 5g enterprise deals. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: we are going to raise the corporate tax. it was 35%, which was too high. we all agreed five years ago it

should go down to 28%, but they reduced it to 21%. we are going to raise it up to 28%. no one should be able to complain about that. jonathan: you will find someone to complain about that. i'm sure about that. that's the president of the united states on a higher corporate tax rate. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. live on tv and radio, here's the price action. in about one hour and 12 minutes, we have jobless claims in america, and those are still too high. in the bond market, yields are lower to 1.7 to present as we kick off q2. your equity market had a little look at 4k yesterday on the s&p 500. 3978 right now, up 0.3%. nasdaq when he endured futures -- nasdaq 100 futures kicking things off higher by almost 1%. tom: we've got to level up here, q1 into q2. i would just note the vix.

we've come in from 23 to 18.55. let us remember just before this horrific pandemic, the vix at a nirvan -- at a n irvana, 13.8. i'm with gina martin adams, earnings season has never been more mysterious and important. right, kevin cirilli with us, off of president biden and this historic moment for the nation yesterday. i want to go to the process you live and breathe in the marble halls of congress. how do you define the process forward and the specificity of this bill? is it an amorphous blob to the assembled legislatures, or will they know what is in the bill? kevin: they are going to go through committees. yesterday was an opening bid. come june, july, speaker pelosi

will move infrastructure ahead of the august recess slightly. that is her working timetable. thirdly, after the august recess, in the senate is when minority leader mitch mcconnell and majority leader chuck schumer will have their staff at this. but yesterday was an opening bid -- there stab at this. but yesterday was an opening bid , and no it is a piecemeal approach to what gets done. tom: are they in the weeds as we go through that nine month process, or are they only arguing about $200 billion there and $600 billion here? do they know what is in the bill? kevin: there are proposals that have wide bipartisan support. i am thinking of the $50 billion for supply chain diversification and bolstering security amongst research and develop and agencies and universities -- and

development agencies and universities. come the fall, they have to fund some -- they have to pass some funding bill to keep the government going. lisa: the idea that the midterm elections are a line in the sand for democrats right now. kevin: it is also for republicans. typically anytime you get into the first quarter of a calendar year, or really any time you near the holiday recess of the year before a midterm election, typically any type of mammoth sized controversial legislation, the chances and windows of opportunity rapidly closes. so the fall is really candidly when there could be an actual opportunity for legislation to be passed. i think if you are looking at the element of this bill, and this is very important to try to forecast out, the elements of

this bill that are not poison pills like raising the corporate tax rate, like taxing offshore profits from the current level of 13% to 21%, it is the national security, the 5g, the digital infrastructure, aid for research end of element. that is a nonpartisan issue that would be able to garner widespread support. lisa: and yet, there was a story on the bloomberg about how chuck schumer is trying to go it alone the 100 billion dollar plan for semiconductors because republicans don't like how much he plans to spend. how realistic is it that there is any bipartisan support for any provisions given how bifurcated washington has gotten today? kevin: i hear you. i think with respect to leadership on both sides of the aisle in the senate, i think today is the morning after. i think march and september is an attorney he away, but i do think -- i thought it was interesting yesterday when the president corrected himself, and

which he called senator mitch mcconnell the majority leader and then corrected himself and said the minority leader. i think it speaks to the notion that he did speak with leader mcconnell earlier this week for heading to pittsburgh. they've got a long relationship. tom: do the politicians care about the analysis, including jason furman, that you take $2.25 trillion, divided by 50 years, you come out with $150 billion per year, and as a percent of gdp, it is a rounding error? kevin: you are losing me with the mass, so the answer is no here in washington, d.c. [laughter] lisa: you will get a slide ruler in the mail, kevin. kevin: where's my tea i-83 plus, tom -- my ti83+, tom? i think you hit it on the head yesterday, tom, that washington

is in an era of spending. deficits and whatnot are not be considered -- not being considered. gingerly it is a robust debate for conservatives ahead of 2020 22, but washington has got the checkbook out and they are willing to write a lot of checks. jonathan: kevin, good to see you. run. [laughter] chief washington correspondent, host of bloomberg "sound on" on bloomberg radio. this is not the $9.1 trillion bill -- the $1.9 trillion bill the cap past -- that got passed. this is a spending plan over 10 years. people come on this program and say $2.25 trillion sounds like a lot, but given what we need to do in this country, probably not enough. tom: i would take it out to 15 years, which is a lot of the discussion over the taxes that will pay for this.

we are at $21,000 -- nominal economy. kevin will tell you we are a real gdp economy chain waited. it is a rounding error per year. jonathan: $508 billion of that is for what they call strengthening american manufacturing. within that, $180 billion goes to what is billed is the biggest nondefense program on record. if you want to take on china, $108 billion -- does $180 billion it done? tom: i don't think the politicians care one whit about the minute and details on this -- the minutia and details on this. they are looking at november 2022. jonathan: the midterms are

around the corner. coming up, we will talk to jared bernstein, white house counsel of economic advisers member. equity futures up 0.3%. yields are down to basis points. i've got two hours and 30 minutes. lisa: just keep going yeah, yeah.

♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action. it's about buy the rumor and may be selling the news. the rumor, we reopen. the news, that could come tomorrow morning. . equity futures up about 0.3% on the s&p. the nasdaq up 0.9%. outperforming on the session this morning. have a look at where we are year to date. let's have a look at the sector versus the bond market. this would -- finish on this. treasuries up on u.s. tens. finish on this. switch up the board. wti year to date, up by almost

123%. the -- by almost 23%. again, indentation basin of -- in anticipation of better demand. is the reopening already priced? i can tell you, q2 is all about the news. it is all about the data. it is no longer about anticipation. it is about the data and the reopening and the data points we are about to see in this country. tom: the data to me is the foreign exchange market where renminbi today is really out to new weakness, buttressed up against the breakout to new yuan weakness. who would've thought a yen and dxy print would really be something? i'm watching ethics again as a global let this paper -- at fx again as a global litmus paper. jonathan: let's say hello to romaine bostick. romaine: let's talk about buying the rumor and buying the news

because that is what we are seeing in the ev space here. we talked about bidens plan and what might see the light of day. it does seem to be consensus out there that the per totals -- the proposals on ev are going to make it through. it is not just direct government spending come about what that spending could mean for private spending, whether that could be a catalyst for additional spending. you see that not only reflected in tesla and gm come of a keep an eye on the charging stations. charge point has already been out front on this, talking about how this is going to spur additional spending by private companies. quantum scape, which already had us -- which already has a deal with volkswagen, met one of the key milestones in a development of batteries. we saw a rally in these names up until they announced yesterday, but that really continuing in the premarket.

another big development is going on in the chip space. we had some interesting comments here. macron came out with earnings come a much better than it -- micron came out with earnings, much better than expected. they say a lot of the demand and supply issues that have worked in its favor are going to continue into 2022, according to its forecast. then you had taiwan semi come out. taiwan semi a few months ago said it would do about $28 billion of capital spending. now it is saying it is going to triple that over the next three years. so basically it is doing about $28 billion per year for the next three years, saying conditions have changed in its favor dustin the past few weeks since it made that is that -- in its favor just in the past few weeks since it made that announcement. tom: i believe there is a tech correction going on. i am looking at micron's chart, and that is a horrific correction. romaine: but keep in mind, a lot

of the correction in the tech space, there's been less of a correction with regards to philadelphia semiconductors. you're talking about an index that basically closed two points below its all-time high yesterday. look, tom, that's basically your third best performer on the sector you to date. go back to the march lows we had from last year. the only thing outperforming it is energy. year-to-date, it is financials. if you are looking to invest on a sector by sector basis, right now it is basically chips, financials, and to a smaller extent, energy. tom: romaine bostick, thank you so much. let's move on to a magnificent call with toronto dominion bank, their global head of fx strategy, mark mccormick. absolutely nailed the resilient or even stronger dollar call. really out of consensus in november, december of last year. mr. mccormick visits us to take a victory lap. i am not going to mince words. it's a great call, and you

mention a simple framework. what is your simple framework forward? mark: i think the framework is to think about the factors driving currency markets and how they align with the macro development. we are seeing a transition from 2020 all about liquidity, to 2021 all about regional macroeconomic divergence. i think the key is understanding the business cycle. are we through the recovery phase? how does this interact with what the central bank's are going to do, particularly the fed? you are thinking terms of trade, you talk about the commodity cycle, relative economic growth. those things are not crystal-clear lined up for the dollar to accelerate from here, but what this is is a breakdown and cross asset correlation and relative value. tom: tom orlik of bloomberg has a wonderful article today slotting in gdp off of u.s. leadership. how do you synthesize america as

the global gdp locomotive? how do you synthesize that into fx analysis? mark: that's a great question because it is very tricky. if someone tries to use gdp, gdp is not a great metric to look at currencies on a relative basis. one of the things we try to do is track general consensus expectations for year ahead growth. forward-looking, you can see these indicators usually once a month or once a week, and aggregate inferencing most that come from different data providers. i think what you want to think about is in that framework, that generates one of the best sharp ratios when we thing about factor performance and currencies. this is one of the things that, when you look at u.s. versus rest of the world, the world is now starting to catch up to the u.s. this is what is really tricky about covid. curves are very fluid, very hard to predict, and very hard to protect a vaccine rollout. there's a lot of great news priced into the u.s.

the consensus is probably bullish u.s. dollar, and i think we are in the period right now where the global economy is starting to accelerate and growth numbers are positive where the dollar rally pauses a bit. especially in april where the dollar weakens. jonathan: where do you think the source of upside surprises come from? what i am hearing you saying is elsewhere. mark: i think you have to kind of take around the world. the euro is not an anchor for the global pickup around the world. i think what you want to think about is currencies that have good value, that would benefit from the terms of trade moving the right direction and some relative shifts in growth. there are some stories in latin america. in the g10, new zealand dollar looks really cheap on a short run basis, so you see a nice move there. as we step back, we look across europe, euro and swiss are going to be underperformers to sterling in norway.

i think norway is still the key currency you want to focus on in euro because it has all of those factors. it is the strong as performer in growth and on mobility and the covid story in europe, and also on the left side of it, it is linked to the global reflation commodity cycle. lisa: i'm struck by this idea that central bank policy is a lesser influence here. i am wondering how that factors in going forward at a time when the fed will probably be moving certainly before the ecb. is it irrelevant at this point, given the fact that growth is really the main driver? mark: if you think around the world, like the confusion index, how many countries are doing what, what we are seeing is growth acceleration around the world. what we are seeing on the central-bank side is central banks being less dovish. in the last three months, we have only seen a central banks lowering rates on a global scale. if you wind those up to the dollar, prior to 2017, the dollar correlated quite well with the global central bank

index. so the more central banks were cutting come of the dollar got. that correlation is zero since 2017. i think a lot of it has to do with the weight central banks have changed their policies, but also the macroeconomic implications of the trump policy kind of changed how people navigate around central banks. i think on the growth side, what has happened is people have always thought about relative growth fundamentals for currencies as a driver. you don't want to ignore the central banks. you want to find the currencies that have tear growth and clear normalization prospects. if you look at g10 specifically, year-to-date, the central bank relative value trading spines about putty 5%. the relative growth -- trade explains about 25%. there's not too much clarity on the central-bank policy, but you don't want to be expecting the dollar to rally where global central banks are becoming a little more hawkish.

jonathan: how do you sort this out -- lisa: how do you sort this out with respect to china? there growth outlook is perhaps decelerating just a touch. mark: i think it nudges the dollar-remember he range -- dollar-renminbi range from where it was. what you are seeing in the u.s. is, especially if we talk about the infrastructure package, there is less spill over into the manufacturing sector and probably less capital flows into asia, which means there's less dollar diversification going through on reserve cycle. i think obviously, the magnitude of this shift in u.s. real rates really closes the gap between real rates between the u.s. and china. that obviously nudges fair value a little bit higher, but we are still in a world where the u.s. and china are competing on not equal planes, but they are offsetting in both have good stories. tom: can you imagine mark mccormick at a bar? he brings the bar to a complete

stop talking stocks. jonathan: mark, can we just touch on it for 20 seconds? tom: you are worse than mccormick is. jonathan: with a great rollout of the vaccine, why agree short verses -- why are you short versus the mexican peso? doing this just for you, tom. carry on, mark. [laughter] mark: a lot of people expecting a little more of a of a cycle. what we are seeing is they are obviously shifting towards a focus on inflation and inflation expectations. they are a lot more hawkish than people expected at the last meeting. they will probably tighten over the coming year. if you think about the u.s. infrastructure package, who benefits the most from u.s. growth? canada and mexico. if you are think about energy, links to the north american growth cycle, all linked to that play on base metals. jonathan: i appreciate that. tom: jon, you are worse than he

is. jonathan: that is the sound of the audience. [laughter] thank you, mark mccormick of td. i'm almost at that long weekend. lisa: we are going to make it feel long. tom: are you going to san diego? jonathan: little-known fact, lisa lived in chile for a year. lisa: it's true. jonathan: wanted to see the real life action of conservative economics. is that what beat your interest? -- what piqued your interest? jonathan: that, and a really like -- lisa: that, and i really like avocados. ritika: president biden says he is open to good-faith negotiations with lawmakers on his two point $2 trillion infrastructure plan. republicans already are making it clear they don't like the way the president wants to pay for the spending. he's proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, plus

a 21% minimum tax on global corporate earnings. there are racial disparities in vaccination rates across the u.s., according to data by bloomberg. states and cities have inoculated almost twice as big a share of their white populations as they have of their black populations. in seven states, including arizona and florida, that gap is more than twice as big. some health care providers say it is taking longer to build up trust amongst communities of color. bloomberg has learned a manufacturing error affects 15 million doses worth of an ingredient for johnson & johnson's vaccine. j&j is downplaying the situation. the company says it has met its most recent coronavirus vaccine delivery target and says none of the doses made in the u.s. so far have come from the plant where the error happened. after dismissing digital currencies for years, some wall street giants are warming to the idea. goldman sachs is now open to it.

still, none of the biggest u.s. banks provide direct access to bitcoin and other digital currencies. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the nice thing and the desirable thing for me about infrastructure spending, it is a long-term investment. it should help in future create higher potential gdp growth, higher sustainable growth, better productivity. so i would differentiate infrastructure spending from other spending. jonathan: that was robert kaplan, dallas fed president. we have a lot of people that agree. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your price action looks like this on the equity market. on the s&p we advanced 0.3%.

that nasdaq up 0.9%. when i say people disagree with it, i am talking about economic circles. there was huge debate about the $1.9 trillion plan. larry summers spoke about it. some is very much on board with what we are seeing. tom: and of course, this is actually money applied, whether you agree or disagree. it is not like a check in the mail. this is money applied to different programs. so i think a different prism, a different analysis is in order. jonathan: i am pleased to say that back with this is jared bernstein, white house counsel of. you have to forgive me. -- council of economic advisers member. you have to forgive me. we were having a conversation about whether the last plan was too much. now we are having a conversation about whether this is too little. how does it get it done? jared: this is like the goldilocks of economic policy. it's too hot, it's too cold.

it is of a magnitude to really dig into the infrastructure deficiencies that have evolved in this country over so many years. as some people have said, some in praise, some in criticism, we define infrastructure quite broadly here to include not just roads and bridges, which are essential and something the president has long talked about, but also clean energy, housing, there are many components to this bill. the fact sheet is 25 pages long, and there are a set of paid fors that more than pay for the expenditures over the next 15 years. jonathan: it is billed as the most extensive nondefense spending on record. you talk about the ambitions of an autocratic china, a challenge of our time. we have seen the china 2025 plan released. 180 billion dollars feels like a dip in the ocean -- $180 billion

feels like a dip in the ocean. it is not enough. why do you think it is? jared: i think you have to look at a lot of other line items, not just that one. this american jobs plan is replete with many more tax credits and incentives for r&d and innovation that dig a lot deeper than that. there's the ones in the manufacturing space, but their safe bet -- there's the clean energy space. we do a deep dive into incentivizing production of not just electric vehicles, but charging stations and batteries here in this country. this is the largest play i have seen in my economic career to onshore industries, to build up industries, to grab global market share in areas where we could beat our competitors. tom: i want to go to year acclaimed book, "all together now." in every report i see is a huge

body of america in support of infrastructure, etc. i want you to speak to some fancy republican sitting fat and happy in a suburb about why they should support this bill even if the senator doesn't. jared: well, if they do feel that way, they are among a significant majority. 80% of republicans support investment in infrastructure, so this is something that is widely recognized. i think there's been a pretty sick if it can disconnect between republican opposition to anything that comes from the other side and where constituents and the population is at large. joe biden got 81 million votes from all of america to not just fight with folks here, but to make sure he meets the needs of the country. that is what he's doing here. tom: how do you respond to those on the left?

what is the mix within the bill, the social programs versus bridges? the secretary of commerce has to fix the bridge in rhode island. we all get that. but in this program, whatever anybody wants to say, there's a lot of social messaging, social hope in planning. how do you respond to progressive's that want more? jared: i was just reading an article in "the washington post where derek hamilton, i think quite a brilliant and renowned progressive scholar of racial disparities, was pointing out that our definition of infrastructure here is broad, and it should be. not only does the bill do the kinds of traditional measures we have talked about, and the clean energy and innovation and manufacturing part, but there is also a deep housing policy that goes after exclusionary zoning which is something you rarely see from the federal government. this is an area where systemic

racism is embedded. if you look at how we stand up the care economy, this is something progressive's a lot about. if people start looking at what is in here, they are going to recognize that it is plenty progressive, and especially when you get to the highly progressive tax pay fors. lisa: they will be on bloomberg today at 12:30 p.m. to weigh in on more. there's a lot of agreement about the goals of this 2.25 trillion dollar plan. how we get there is a point of contention. there's this reputation of government-funded operations being incredibly inefficient. people point to the dmv, waiting in line for hours to speak to someone for a basic procedure. what are you telling people to ensure them that we are not going to end up with 40,000 dmv's that are inefficient and not using money well? jared: that is a great question. i have a two word answer for you, president biden.

i worked for vice president biden during the implementation of the recovery act. he recognizes more than any politician i have ever worked for that simply signing legislation and moving onto the next thing is not the way to go. this is a passion of his. we have to show the american people who are footing the bill for this that we are not just signing documents here, that we are paying full into 10 -- full attention to him limitation. if you look at production of the vaccine, i think you see good governance is back in town and at work, and you will see this in this plan as well. jonathan: i'm shocked that you think the current president is part of the solution. looking forward, where's the rest of it? where are the tax hikes, and when? jared: i think the president said something to the tune of mid april in terms of the next part of this, called the families plan. i'm not going to get ahead of him on the announcements. jonathan: just in the time you have, if we could characterize the effort a little more for us. is this a bigger wealth

redistribute an effort that is still to come? jared: much more in the sense of building back better. this is an effort to dive more deeply into the parts that you see, that you don't see that much. in this one we have some care economy, but there's education, there's tax issues on the personal side of the code. so there's more to get back to, and we will in a matter of weeks, not months. lisa: people view this plan is being a starting point for negotiations. are the higher taxes on corporations and individuals making more than $400,000 nonnegotiable going forward? jared: the president has put that $400,000 line in the sand, and that is something he has continually elevated. i don't want to say anything is nonnegotiable because the president has consistently shown he's willing to reach across the aisle and try to get input from the other side. that has been a very solid commitment.

i think the idea that we are going to just keep doing things and never paying for them, if you want to come forward with different ideas of how to pay for things, as long as you recognize that $400,000 boundary, we are willing to listen. tom: will the congressional budget office score or analyze this bill? what will be their timeline? eight years, 15 years, or 30 years? jared: typically the congressional budget office uses a 10 year budget window, so that would be their timeline. this is about an eight your spending plan, but the tax increases just continue on forever, so by year 15, the revenue raised pace for the plan. jonathan: it is always good to catch up, and we appreciate your ongoing contributions to this program. thank you for the transparency. jared bernstein, white house counsel of economic advisors. we look ahead to mid april.

where are the rest of the tax hikes? the proposal no doubt will come in the next couple of weeks. tom: tax hikes in america are a good way to become unemployed as a politician. there's a change between the corporate analysis and the individual analysis. jonathan: $400,000, that is the redline. you get a real sense of that. tom: i wonder how that migrates. lisa: that's what he was saying, basically he is willing to listen if anyone comes with a proposal for how to pay for this . they can't just keep proposing things without paying for it, as long as they recognize that $400,000 line. there is a question still remaining, and i don't know that we have heard it, the idea of whether it is household income or individual income. it seems like the language has moved more towards individual income, but how much will he go up? will it be for the entire income, or increments above $400,000? tom: i would suggest europe does

this better than america. they put a longer timeline on these projects. we are unable to get out past two election cycles maybe. you get to 10 years, 15 years. what do you pay for bridge in montana? jonathan: some places in your -- in europe because germany has got a huge problem to do exactly that. i do wonder how we will look back on this period of low interest rates, and how we will judge these economies. away from america just for a moment, let's talk about germany. record low interest rates for about a decade. do you think this government has made the most use of that opportunity to reinvest into the economy? tom: no. this is culture overlaid across all of this political and economic analysis. jonathan: from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. two hours to go. coming up, mike wilson, morgan stanley chief u.s. equity strategist. lisa: until what?

jonathan: this is my personal account. [laughter] tom: the city is cold and empty. no one is around to judge me. jonathan: that's a good song, isn't it? that's what i was up for, you singing. equities up on the nasdaq. this is bloomberg. ♪

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