l ve you a super easy refund. we'll even cover the return shipping. this is a limited time offer, so go to aerotrainer.com to get the body you want with aerotrainer. ♪ >> we are kind of at the doorstep of finally getting a better look of what this recovery looks like. >> very mechanically driven, completely unnatural, so now the recovery is somewhat unnatural as well. >> all those who were saying we were going to get inflation like you have never seen so far have been proven wrong. >> there is certainly capacity to be surprised to the upside. >> i thing we will see the strongest economic growth in 50 years during any to anyone and 2022 combined -- during 2021 and 2022 combined. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene,

jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, beginning of the second quarter. no april fools, green on the screen. markets up big. the market boats off what president biden said. the nasdaq up over 1%. jonathan: nasdaq 100 futures come of the story of the session, not the story of the quarter. massive outperformance on the banks, on energy. we have seen enough of this reopening trade before we actually see the data in q2. tom: we are going to recalibrate on that. mike wilson will build us of morgan stanley -- will join us of morgan stanley in a moment. tom orlik at global economics for bloomberg has got a boom global economy off of a boom american economy. jonathan: i will let the market talk for me. the dollar index last month, best month since november 2016. why? because growth in america is looking so much better to what we see out of, say, europe. how does that change for q2, q3? that is the big unknown.

the bar is pretty high. tom: lisa, you have had the courage to get out before the immediate year to q3, q4, even into 2022, into this q2. it is a mystery, isn't it? lisa: the idea that we are going to see growth rates that we have not seen in the united states since the 1970's, but what does that mean for the longer-term? there is a growing feeling that there's a conviction -- jonathan: someone sounds like morgan stanley. lisa: i thing it's working. tom: let's do one more thought here before we get to mr. wilson of morgan stanley. we will look at the data as well. you mentioned earlier this good news is continued good news from pfizer. the efficacy of what their research shows out six months, out a year. the fact is and continues.

jonathan: that's the latest headline from the pfizer study. it looks like you can get the efficacy still with the south african variant. the numbers are fantastic on the vaccine front. tom: we thank all of you for listening and watching. yesterday, traffic off the road nationwide. derek jeter commenting on red sox pitching. we thank you all for your comments. lisa: the important news, tom. [laughter] tom: save me with a data check here. the vix, 18.44. jonathan: i'm going to try. i'm not going to be here the next couple of days. [laughter] i'll be gone in a couple of hours. in the bond market, on .754% -- bond market, 1.754%. a big dollar short position coming into 2021.

euro-dollar up about 0.1%. tom: we want to make note within the schedule of this holiday week for all of you, we will be here tomorrow for the jobs report. we will go beneath the headline data at 8:30. i believe scheduled with me is lisa abramowicz. lisa: i can confirm that my weekend does not start today, even though jon will keep rubbing it in that he will be off tomorrow. jonathan: mine bleeds into next week, too. it's what we do around the easter holiday. take a couple of days. tom: how british. we will be here monday as well. romaine bostick helping as well. right now, mike wilson joins us. he has been dead on with morgan stanley on small caps. let me just cut to the chase. how do you adapt and adjust to q2? mike: thanks, tom. i think q2 is going to be the actual reopening. the dream of reopening, the dream of restarting the economy,

is always bullish. there's no proof at. now as we actually reopen the economy, we have to do it. execution risk goes up. at the stock level, we are expecting disappointment. we think it is going to be difficult for a lot of companies to manage this. some companies are going to take advantage of it, take share, and operate quite well. one of our recent calls is we did downgrade small caps, and it is kind of a lower quality area, and we are basically recommending that people do upgrade the portfolio a bit on the quality side as we go through this reopening period in q2 and q3. jonathan: is it fair to say this is a cell the news event -- a sell the news event? mike: i think it is more of a low-quality part of the trade has really worked. we have been bullish on the idea that that is what always happens, that low-quality does really well coming off a

recession. we looked at that data recently and the relative outperformance of lower and higher quality, and some other things we can talk about, have been asked ordinary. small caps overlarge, for example. we want to capture that because this is the time and any cycle where you revert back to consolidation and quality becomes more in favor again, at least in verily -- at least temporarily. jonathan: a foundation for your call has been they reopening, the recession playbook, the early-stage part of the cycle. you and i caught up on this several times in the last month. now we are thing about the duration, the intensity of the cycle. can you add in those domain ask -- those dynamics and how that shaped your thinking? mike: we always felt that as we went into this recession, we didn't predict a pandemic, but we felt like this next recession was going to challenge policymakers because we are still very close to the zero bound, and this transition to fiscal policy has only been

accentuated by the fact that we are in a pandemic. there's no governor on what politicians can do because it is a health crisis. we think it looks very much like the post-world war ii period in many ways. we wrote about this. we are lucky to have more of a boom/bust type outcome. in the last 30 years, as rates have been coming down, the fed has been allowed to be asked were nearly accommodative, and that is why you had these long economic expansions. there was no pressure for monetary policy. but we were always shooting below trend on targets, on growth and inflation. we think that is changing now. what that means is more frequent recessions. that is a great investment opportunity if you know what you're doing. that is cycle and allows us -- psychoanalysis 101 -- cycle analysis 101. the next recession is not anytime soon, but let's talk

about the last couple of expansions. they've lasted 8, 9, 10 years. we think it is probably more like four to five years. what that means in the very near term is you move out of that early cycle playbook tomorrow a midcycle playbook. once again, low-quality tends to not perform as well as an example. small caps tend to not do as well. we just upgraded consumer staples up to consumer discretionary. consumer discretionary tends to be the best early cycle performing group. will, that period ashwell, that period -- well, that period is coming to an end. tech, from a cyclical standpoint, should be doing quite well because as you come out of a recession, things like semiconductors and some of the more cyclical parts of tech and if it from that. there's going to be a huge boom. -- a huge capex boom.

some of the companies that can benefit from that may do better. for us, it is neutral for a couple of reasons. the pandemic was unusual in that we saw a pull forward of demand for a lot of technology companies as we digitize the economy and make it easier to work from home. there's going to be some payback in demand in the short term there. but then structurally, longer-term, this idea that rates are now bottoming from a long-term perspective and they are going to continue to rise is going to be a headwind on valuation for some of these secular growth companies. so it is about trying to find things that can buck that trend. tom: 20 years back, 8.7% spx. the great wrong call has been as an actuarial single-digit equity world. forward, can you be double digit? mike: in the u.s., i don't think so, if you buy into our view

that rates are bottoming. the reason those returns have been above trend is directly proportional to the fall of long-term interest rates. stocks are long-duration assets and they do better when rates are falling. so if you buy into the idea that rates have bottomed for the long cycle, that is a headwind. it is not the end of the world, but it is hard. it is running into the wind. jonathan: mike wilson, morgan stanley chief u.s. equity strategist, on this market as we reopen and the data starts to come through tomorrow. sometimes you need to pause, reflect, and get perspective on headlines across the bloomberg. cvs health are giving vaccines at about 2000 stores in america. cvs health surpasses 10 million covid-19 vaccine doses administered. here's the perspective. i want you to think about this. 10 million doses administered at cvs health in america. do you know where france is at right now? 11 million. italy, 10 million.

germany, 18 million. they are countries versus a u.s. corporation, largely because of the effort of the federal government granted, but it just goes to show you the compare and contrast in america and europe right now is staggering. tom: what is so important here, and i witnessed this on my trip out west. we went over to venice beach just to see what the young kids are doing. the young kids are much more comfortable, particularly those uncomfortable about getting vaccinated, about going to a cvs than they are about going to some big intimidating building. lisa: well, i think that is true. i think it is also just access. people want the shot. they want to go do things. back to your point, this question of whether the cdc is going to come out with better guidance, and i say better because it is more applicable to what people are actually doing, we are going to have people basically creating their own rules. jonathan: at the height of this pandemic, we thought europe

could respond better with socialized health care, and what we have seen in america is a mix of the government and the private sector coming together in a massive way and delivering in a way that europe, even with a socialized health care system, has not been able to. from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. up 15 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika:ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. pfizer's coronavirus vaccine remains highly effective after six months according to new long-term results. follow-up data from the final stage trial shows the vaccine was 91% effective in preventing symptomatic cases. the time period went from one week after the second dose to six months after. republicans in congress are opposed to the way president biden wants to pay for his $2.2 trillion interest rupture plan. the present -- trillion infrastructure plan. the president wants to raise the

corporate tax and tax corporate earnings. opec is warning that oil demand remained fragile. secretary omar hyman barkindo -- secretary-general mohammed barkindo said, "we should not be out smelling the flowers yet." another blow to hong kong's beleaguered opposition. the city's so-called father of democracy martin lee and media mogul jimmy lai were convicted of conducting unauthorized protest. they will be sentenced next month. the verdict came shortly after china approved a plan that effectively ends open elections in hong kong. investors are showing their loyalty to famed ark investment

founder cathie wood. the etf took in a record $717 million on tuesday. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this american jobs plan is replete with many more tax credits and incentives for r&d

and innovation that dig a lot deeper than that. there is the ones in the manufacturing space, but there's the clean energy space. when you get to electric vehicles, we do a deep dive into incentivizing the production of not just electric vehicles, but charging stations and batteries here in this country. so this is the largest play i have seen in my economic career to on short industries -- to onshore industries and build in areas where we can beat our competitors. jonathan: two administrations, two presidents, and yet you hear the same word, onshoring. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. let's touch on the price action as we count you down to initial jobless claims about 12 minutes away, then payrolls tomorrow morning at 8:30 eastern time. lisa and tom will be here. [laughter] tom: thank you. jonathan: even i can't keep a

straight face. on 10 year yields, we come in three basis points. the s&p up 0.4%. the nasdaq 100 up by 1.1%. tom: very good, jon. right now we will talk about the airlines. we often talk about the major airlines vital to this nation that connect hubs with their smaller cities. frontier airlines has been pathbreaking and controversial over a good 20, 30 years out of denver with the various iterations of bankruptcy in 2008, and their resurgence today with an initial public offering. barry biffle joins us, frontier airlines president and chief executive officer. denver to las vegas, two hours and five minutes. you are going to compete with the big boys on a regional basis. how do you avoid the failures of frontier airlines from the past? barry: the main way we do it is

low cost. in 2019, we were the lowest cost airline in the united states, not just from an ex-perspectivefuel -- from an ex-fuel perspective, but including fuel. the brand is as strong as it has ever been. tom: do you need the other brands to survive? are they your friends or enemies? barry: they carry corporate. we focus on leisure and a mystic travel. we are just in a different business -- and domestic travel. we are just in a different business. tom: i don't know if frontier has a middle seat to billings, montana, but what is your pandemic strategy? barry: from the beginning, we have put safety first, both that of our employees and customers. we were leaders in the space in terms of innovating new things

like the temperature checks and the health certification and so forth. now we are moving beyond that. people are getting vaccinated, and the country's reopening again, so that is what is exciting now. lisa: why ipo now? why not back in 2017, 2018 when you were initially thinking about it? barry: ipo's, there's never a perfect time, but today is a great time because we liked to joke that we were low cost and low fare and leisure oriented before it was cool. there's never been more excitement about leisure travel, and there has never been a better time for us to be positioned for the next five to 10 years. lisa: what are you going to do with the money? is it going to be plugging the gap from months and months of people not traveling, or investing in new airplanes and routes and competing with bigger airlines that are perhaps hit harder by the slower comeback of business travel? barry: when you look at us through the pandemic, we took on

the equivalent of about a dollar per passenger over the next five years in debt. the rest of the industry took on $16 per passenger. just a massive debt load if rents of how we managed pandemic versus how they did. on a relative basis, we are in great shape, but i think when ethan can about the future, we are just better position from a cost structure at a time when all of this leisure demand is coming in. jonathan: i just wonder how much competition you are expecting now from some of the legacy carriers in the united states, given the fact that people are worried that business travel doesn't return quite in the same way. is this set to get even more competitive? where does your edge come from? barry: there is so much demand. there's plenty of room for all of the capacity that is hitting the market. the question is what they are going to be paying. we look at our cost structure relative to theirs, we can make money on low fares. but if your costs are double ours, it is going to be a hard time making money at the fare

levels we sell at. jonathan: give us a sense of the surge you are seeing him of the last week or so. barry: being in new york here at the nasdaq today, the excitement is huge. the quarantine was just removed for new york state today, so you can just feel it in the energy this morning and the city. but overall, over the past month, we went cash positive at the beginning of march. that is just a reflect in of the demand that is out there. you think about the vaccine that is unlocking all of this demand. people got plenty of mone -- people have got plenty of money. that was before the $1400 coming in with the latest stimulus. so you've got plenty of money in people's pockets and a huge amount of demand to get out of your house and get going, so i think it's never been a better time to be in the airline business. lisa: you are talking about how other airlines have more debt

per the dollar of their value that you do. how much do you expect prices to increase of these plane tickets, both among your competitors and for yourself? barry: i can't speak for what they are going to do with their prices, but obviously they have a lot more pressure if you have higher costs, and you will want to reflect that in some way to pay that back. that is why we are so excited about it ourselves, given that we took on less than a dollar per passenger. so it is not an impairment on us , but if they rise in prices, you will have to ask them. jonathan: vaccine passports, controversial question in the industry right now. tom: good question. come on, barry. [laughter] lisa: really, tom? barry: i think it would be great if you can implement it. there's just a lot of challenges with it. i think in the u.s., given the vaccine is really already knocking down the hospitalizations, i don't know

how necessary it is going to be. when you are traveling between countries that maybe one or the other has still a lot of infection, i think it makes sense. tom: i've got to go to the pride of gainesville, texas. are you happy with the opening up of your texas? can you support the governor, or do you need to see a different strategy in your texas? barry: if you look at the facts, i know they got rid of the mask mandate, and last week their cases hadn't changed materially versus some other states. so there is something else going on. i'm from texas and i will always be proud of being from texas. jonathan: don't expect that to change. good to catch up. did we say frontier or front air ? tom: we say british airways. ryanair. frontier. jonathan: 90 minutes left. neil dutta, renaissance macro

research, ahead of a huge payrolls report. yields are in four basis points on tens. i think it is frontier. this is bloomberg. tom: it's frontier. [laughter] ♪

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jonathan: good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. jobless claims coming out in the next couple of seconds. futures up .4% on the s&p. in the bond market, yields in four basis points. here's the data. here is michael. michael: unfortunately higher with jobless claims last week we broke through the 700,000 barrier, we broke through the other direction this time seven hundred 19,000 jobless claims last week. this will be a surprise because we thought the trend would be falling with more states opening up in the economy seeming to heat up. that is not the case. that is an increase of 61,000 from the previous week's level.

the previous week's level also revised down to 658,000. it is a bigger jump than it appeared to be during the month. we look at the number of pandemic claims. the freelancer claims. they are at 237,000. a lot of people not working and trying to get some sort of assistance from the government. we also had some changes. i am not seeing exactly how this is working. there are going to be -- neil dutta is coming on. he can spend his day looking at this. they are changing the prior years jobless claims. that may be part of the reason we saw such a big chop -- a big drop for last week. they had to change because of the way the economy went into

the tank so fast. they have gone back and looked at it and try to figure out what it means. tom: michael mckee, i'm looking at the hewlett-packard calculator. it looks great on radio. i take the revision and i take where we are now. it is a meaningless 18,000, a better number and a worse number. are we splitting hairs before what really matters tomorrow? michael: jobless claims are people who have lost their jobs. it does not directly translate into payroll numbers, which are people who got jobs. it does give you a sense of direction. the problem we have is the direction is not good. we thought we would be reversing it. i do not think these numbers are accurate in terms of the amount given the double counting fraud and the difficulty in processing jobless claims this high. it does suggest this economy may

be is not recovering as quickly as some people had hoped. jonathan: the market recovers quickly to a lower yield. see a move, 1.6965. we break below 1.7% after breaking a one of 1.70 -- after breaking above 1.77%. the dollar weaker. down about .1%. one thing that does hold, the equity market still up .4% on the s&p 500. the nasdaq 100 up. not big moves. i am not trying to add drama. just raining the drama. tom: 88 minutes. focus. jonathan: wait for tomorrow morning when i'm not here. lisa: let's drain the drama from these numbers and talk about how elevated they are at this point in the cycle. we are talking about a booming

recovery, and yet we still have incredibly elevated numbers. can you give us a sense of what is behind them? why can we justify 719,000 new jobless filings at a time we are supposed to see hiring, supposed to see springtime in america. michael: it is hard to reconcile with all of the anecdotal stories we get about how the economy is performing. these are new claims. these are not the ongoing number of people who've not gone back into their previous jobs. these are new claims. it is hard to know where all of this is coming from. we know there has been fraud. we know the states are having trouble counting. we are at a level it is hard to square. we do have tomorrow, the employment report. it is at 650,000. i wonder if this will way on anybody? tom: will you be here tomorrow? thank god somebody will be here.

lisa: what am i. michael: me and lisa and tom. tom: not john. lisa: what about me? jonathan: you want me to do a phone or? -- a phoner? i might have a drink in my hand but i will do a phoner. tom: we have tiffany wilding tomorrow. and we are thrilled to bring you martin walsh, a very interesting selection by the joe biden administration. we've been setting this up today. april 4. it is a -- april fool's. it means we must speak with neil dutta. he gets a victory lap on this q1 we have seen. he is with renaissance macro research. your hallmark is granularity in data.

you mentioned the google mobility index. what does the dutta mobility index look like right now? neil: is getting stronger. my own personal economy, is that what you're talking about? i am out and about more. lisa: [laughter] tom: that is the thing. we are all out and about more. neil: absolutely. you talk about jobless claims, this number is coming after the survey so why anyone would adjust their numbers based on tomorrow on claims, which we know is a useless series in terms of economic data analysis at the moment. the presence of skyhigh jobless claims has not been enough to keep hundreds of thousands of jobs from being rated over last months. we have seen some slowing at the turn of the year, but it looks like things are picking back up again. lisa: your optimism has been

correct and you've been persistent in this v-shaped recovery and now other people are getting on the same boat. are these numbers simply useless? 719,000 initial jobless claims right now this point in the cycle. or does it indicate something else going on under the surface that does not question the optimism but questions how quickly we will get to the peak growth people are expecting? neil: know, i think the only issue is people are suffering from cognitive dissonance. do you honestly believe 700,000 people are getting laid off every week with consumer confidence at the same level it was in 2017? lisa: would you say these numbers are fictitious? neil: they are not fictitious. the news is real. the analysis is fake. what is the point of using these numbers? jonathan: in what way is the

analysis fake? build on that. neil: anyone trying to pitch an argument in our business, the sell side economics research business, trying to pitch a call for the economic outlook based on initial jobless claims data -- if you're paying for that, you are wasting your money. that is what i think. jonathan: a really good point. let's build on it a bit more. this is where you've been strong over last 12 months. you have disregarded some of the more dramatic numbers and look to a better economy. it was not always this way. it used to be the useful to look at claim -- it used to be useful to look at claims. what is the big change? neil: i think you can look at a variety of different data points. this morning we got the layoff announcement numbers. if you look at the level of layoff announcements, they are in a pandemic low.

we know the sentences doing weekly data, the small business survey. that is showing small firms hiring more than they have any point since last summer, when we are adding one million jobs a month in the third quarter. i think that if consumers are telling you they are as confident now as they were in 2017, it strains credulity to think this many people are getting fired week. tom: i want to cut to the chase. if that is the case, what data should we pay for? what data matters right now? lisa: his data, what you think? neil: we are all looking at some of the same data points. what people are looking for is the analysis around it. to me i think looking at survey

measures of economic activity are quite useful. february was a very sluggish month for the u.s. economy. three quarters of the country was covered in slow. we were not fully reopening at that point. we are getting more traction now. you can run down the list. we know more people are traveling through our airports. we know more people are going out to the restaurant. for all of this talk about the virus, the economy, and so on, vaccinations are picking up. you're telling me two and a half to 3 million people every day are getting vaccinated. that will mean people will loosen their own personal restrictions and the economy will be off to the races. i think the service sector in this economy is gearing up for a significant boom over the second and third quarter of this year on a scale we've probably not seen in growth rate terms. tom: thank you so much. neil dutta, thank you so much. this is the heart and soul of

the market economics debate. this goes back to alan greenspan. greenspan and neil dutta say look at the granular data. jim glassman is in the same camp. i am hoping neil is still with us. i have another question. tom, do not be so hasty. tom: i thought you were gone on the weekend already. jonathan: i just have one more. we are still processing the huge effort in d.c., and you've been optimistic and you've been right. i want to hear from you if you still think people underestimate this recovery? what you think they underestimate still and can you put some numbers on it? neil: i think what is important -- in terms of the labor market what is important to realize is the distribution of job losses during the pandemic has been highly unusual. it does not task the same wide net the financial crisis did. we are talking about leisure and

hospitality jobs. those jobs tend to skew lower productivity, lower wage. what that implies is you do not need as much gdp growth to get you the same kind of jobs growth. the labor market shortfall was disproportionate relative to the gdp shortfall. by the same token, you do not need as much gdp to get that many jobs. it tells you we can have a much stronger labor market recovery than not going forward. jonathan: really smart. thank you. neil dutta, renaissance macro research. i just wanted more time with the three of you before i go. coming up, jp morgan bank anastasia amoroso, and then matt hornbach. tune in with guys tomorrow morning. they will be here. i won't. this is bloomberg.

ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. republicans do not like the way president biden wants to play for his -- wants to paper is infrastructure plan. he has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28% plus a 21% minimal tax on global corporate earnings. one white house advisor is skeptical of what republicans are saying. >> republican support investment in infrastructure. this is something that has a great need. i think there is a significant disconnect between republican opposition. ritika: meanwhile, some progressive democrats say the plan does not spend enough. there are racial disparities in vaccination rates. states and cities have an oxalate almost twice as big a share of their white population is there black population. in several states, that gap is

more than twice as big. it is said it is taking longer to build up trust among communities of color. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i am not concerned by corporate tax increases of this

magnitude. i think it will make us more fair, and that is before you even get to the substantial benefit that are going to come from repairing and infrastructure that in many ways is a national embarrassment. tom: former secretary of the treasury larry summers, look for him with romaine bostick. wall street week this friday into the weekend as well. wall street week, an important effort by secretary summers. we thank him for his effort. maybe that is the big picture. john ricco is a budget analyst. this is the geek world of python and looking at the numbers. john ricco, you have a clue what is in this infrastructure budget, this bill? john: with the cap yacht that it

came out -- with the caveat it came out yesterday and we are supporting it -- we are pouring through it, it does look similar to a lot of what the president reposed on the campaign trail. obviously lots of green energy. we are talking about corporate taxes and a reformation of the national treatment of corporations. tom: as you model this forward, you have to model out eight years, or the cbo 10 years, and some people going up to 15 years. how do nerds like you do that? how do you guesstimate that far into the unknown? john: it starts with getting the latest data and seeing what is coming in. it is a particular challenge right now. it was much easier to model the

2017 tax law because there was a much more normal state of the economy and we had a good idea of where the corporate profits were going. now it is difficult and it adds uncertain t. -- it adds uncertainty. we are looking at trends and macro numbers and longer-term we rely on more nitty-gritty micro-simulations that looks at the long-term productive capacity of the economy based on demographics, productivity. lisa: just to be clear, tom says nerds like you with love because we all consider ourselves somewhat in that category, just to make that absolutely clear. to make this point about extrapolating into the future, there is a question of whether this plan will induce growth in a material way. will it make productivity increase? some of these input factors people say will help the plan paper itself. how do you model out the

trendline in growth spurred by this plan? john: again, when we score similar proposals on the campaign trail, we relied on a project by project analysis for the types of spending he was proposing for infrastructure at the time. research where we look at multiplier effects and productivity effects of different types of capital. our finding was in the medium to long run, there would be a modest increase in growth. these are things that clearly at to the public capital stock. on the pay for side, we expect a negative long-term growth. in particular some of the business taxes he has been proposing. it is basically a wash. what i will say is in the near term, the next couple of years, this does represent an additional upward pressure on growth given the enormity of the

dollar amount involved on top of the stimulus bill. john: this is that it -- lisa: this is an important point. you are seeing over five to 10 years the growth input from this plan would be washed out by the increase in taxes? is that what you are saying? the bleed through affect will only be there for a couple of years? john: it depends on the financing mechanism. as the president own staff of the white house says, this is not a final bill they are offering. relying entirely on business taxes to fund something like this, we think relative to other types of financing mechanism, for example user fees in the form of gas taxes or carbon tax, something to that extent, that is going to come if not

entirely, limit the growth potential of these investments. tom: john ricco, thank you so much. too short of a visit. we will do it again sometime. really interesting. claims today, 18,000 delta over two weeks. i do not know what to do. market certainly move. lower yields. lisa: neil dutta saying any analysis from the numbers cannot be taken too seriously given how quickly it has been moving in fraud charges and the question of how different states are tabulating. your point well taken. yields are going lower and now we are below 1.7%, 1.69%. people saying maybe does not quit growth. maybe the v-shaped recovery is not as robust. tom: what is important is the word resilience the. the dollar has been resilient. yields have been resilient. i know we have had a huge q1 move, but we have not moved up to the gloom level as so many

understood it. to go to the real yield, it has not moved in the last 10 days. lisa: there is a question about the longer-term effects. i am glad we are having the conversation. the unknowns are dramatic. not only what is in the plan at how long the lifetime will be. the idea that if you get something material that changes people's existence, could you get more productivity, could you get more jobs? right now the analysis is not confirming that but the uncertainty is great. tom: penn warded with their heritage of looking at the long-term. we need jokes about a nerd alert. this is backbreaking mental work about guesstimating where this nation is heading, starting fundamentally in 1947 droid -- fundamentally in 1947. lisa: this will be a tremendous

couple of years. i am curious how much they will try to push this through in one lump package with a number of different provisions and how much will they piece off parts to get through bipartisan support? this idea of what chuck schumer is doing on the semiconductor front could be significant that industry. it could garner support during -- it could garner support. tom: the interesting thing is the changed politics of the nation. speaking of the politics, the secretary of commerce on the today. that will be in exceptionally important conversation. tomorrow we move on to our jobs report coverage. lisa: we will be here. tom: we have a full team here worldwide. romaine bostick joining me and lisa abramowicz for an eventful jobs day. leading our coverage, the secretary of labor, martin walsh. jim glassman for years with us

from j.p. morgan chase and tiffany wilding of pimco. stay with us on radio, on television. ♪

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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, the countdown to the open starts right now. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. let's get straight to it. we begin with the big issue. a warm welcome to q2. >> another boom in the economic data. >> the growth numbers. >> the data and the second quarter is supposed to be outrageously good. >> we got a powerful recovery. >> joe biden spending everything he can. >> it is a regime change. >> will be looking at a different tax structure. >> our expectation is it ends up as a singular legislation. >> i do not think they will have bipartisan support for tax hikes. >> cannot see an avenue for republicans to sign on to any proposed tax increases. >> i really do not. jonathan: let's bring in kevin cirilli and kailey leinz.

kevin"et