ultimately, what we want to see israel wages rising. >> this could be a shorter, but hotter cycle. >> the u.s. is going to tug everyone along for the ride. it is just going to take a little bit of time for the synchronization to kick in. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: good morning. we get you started on a five day work week in america. some of the world shutdown today post easter. we are very much open. let's get right to it. this is a market that we did not expect in the first of the year. jonathan: -- lisa: no, the idea that the reflationary trade being led by the united states. strong dollar not good for

emerging markets or a lot of places seeing their debt loads. tom: i'm looking at futures. we are going to address the dollar in a moment. futures lived off the jobs report. 33,000 dow. we are really beginning to lose scope and scale of this bull market. lisa: the idea being that the bigger risk is overheating. these record highs will keep climbing to new record highs in the united states. the consequences of that is what wall street is contemplating. tom: we have news flow. i do want to state that the next fed meeting is april 28. we are a bit distant from that right now. maybe we will get a set up here for it. i mentioned futures up 21. dow futures up 202. the vix to me is a huge story.

it comes into 23, 24, 25 and is hugely broken down in this bull market. 17.92 on the vix. i'm going to say the to point was the stimulus as well. the yield space is a turn to the market right now. on the dollar yen 11061. lisa observes the week. 0 lisa: lisa: -- if anyone is wondering why we are talking about the red sox losing or godiva chocolate, markets are closed in parts of the world. markets are closed today in many parts of europe as well as hong kong and china. a day that you could actually see more volatility as people try to figure out what is happening in the week and months ahead.

ism services have come out from the united states for the month of march. we are expecting an increase as people get out and move around. we are getting february durable goods, which is the opposite story. how much are people just going to dismiss this as bad weather, as potentially the world still shut down? we are all looking forward. today, the imf and world bank are kicking off their annual meeting. the overall theme is going to be global warming. a lot of people talking more about that, but the theme is getting vaccinations to every part of the world. u.s. leading the way, causing disruptions for the rest of the world. tom: we will have to see that. i really want to focus on the pandemic where we have wonderful numbers in the united kingdom.

i'm going to say very good numbers in the united states. still some hotspots in the u.s. as well, but grim numbers abroad. we will address that later on this week. right now, with foreign exchange, the global litmus paper for the system, mark joins us. thank you so much for joining us. what does strong dollar signal for the equity market and fixed income market? mark: in some ways, i think they are all reflecting the same kind of thing and that is the incredible divergence between what is happening in the united states and what is happening in the other major industrialized countries and in emerging markets. i think no other country has the political will or wherewithal to do with the u.s. is doing fiscally and the federal reserve is more aggressive than other central banks and continues to buy u.s. bonds. tom: his diversions tradable?

do you want convergence or diversions? mark: i think in the short run, and we are still in the short run, divergence is still the theme. we are going to see this play out when we get the final pmi reading from europe later this week. i think the key thing here that so far, i have not heard you are lisa speak about is that the bottom line here is that markets are pushing back against fed ideas that they are not going to raise rates until after 2023. eurodollar futures looking at december 2022, is already tracking at least one hike. you can see this as well in the fed funds futures. this is what is helping take the dollar higher. this whole idea about stronger u.s. growth continues to be revised up is really the key to

the u.s. equity markets. lisa: do you get on this train and say the fed is going to have to capitulate or do you say don't fight against the fed? mark: i think it is a little bit early to bet against the dollar trade. i think the fed is giving us the bar for when they will begin tapering. when there is significant progress toward its goals, we had almost one million jobs being created last month. the early call for the april report is for another one million jobs. that means by the time the federal reserve meets in june, the u.s. economy would have created something on the magnitude of 2.5 million jobs. i think that could be the fed's litmus test. by that point, we will get inflation above 2% as deflation drops out over year-by-year comparisons. lisa: so you think the fed will

have to hike rates before when they say they are going to hike rates for the first time and start tapering. how disruptive is this for the rest of the world? how much does this create outflows for the developing world? mark: on one hand, you are right that the u.s. bond yield will increase instead of dragging other interest rates higher. on the other hand, the strength of the u.s. economy, they are going to revise up primarily because of what is happening in the u.s. stronger u.s. growth is going to help fuel growth in u.s. trading partners like canada, mexico as well as countries in east asia who the u.s. imports a lot of consumer goods from. the strength of the u.s. economy overrides that in the short term. tom: news breaking right now, widely expected gamestop, they

are going to offer 3.5 million shares. the stock moves down 9.1 percent, which is what you would expect. this is an act equity offering program. i want to pull that into the great underestimation using foreign exchange as a litmus paper. corporations adjust, how will american corporations adjust to the superior divergence, the excellence of the american economic experiment? marc: in the short run, it is positive, but in the medium to longer term, this diversions is not going to last forever. we are not talking about canceling recovery in europe or in parts of asia. we are really talking about postponing, delaying that and tell maybe the second half. i think this diversions will

mold more into convergence. lisa: just to wrap everything up, i want to bring some news. berkshire hathaway borrowing money in the japanese bond market for the third year in a row as they say they are making investments in japanese companies. do you see other investment companies doing this? marc: i think this is about matching assets of liability. oftentimes, when a corporation is borrowing a foreign asset, they can acquire the currency by buying the currency, or if they are large enough, they can borrow that currency and thereby, not having a currency mismatch. i think this is about avoiding this alliance between revenues and expenditures. tom: we have to leave it there.

so much of these is the back-and-forth and ebb and flow. i'm going to say this again. you have got the gamestop news as well. you know the thing i'm looking at? jp morgan earnings april 14. i'm going to be really looking forward to that. lisa: the state of the consumer and how much their savings have gone up. i want to sit on gamestop for a second offering 3.5 million shares at a time when the retail trader is actually fading away. this has been a popular theme over the last couple of weeks. this raises a question for this real-world offering of gamestop. are they going to have the retail investors who expect

retail to continue to ebb away? tom: i think with gamestop, and i think this has been underestimated by too many is the gentleman that has come in there. there is a chewy effect going on right now and it is just an amazon equivalent, the hope and prayer that chewy can do amazon like returns. lisa: you get two dogs and it is chewy all the time. tom: it is so easy to send money. lisa: you don't order from chewy, you order from some organic, high-quality place from the upper eastside for two different dogs that have two different culinary habits. this does raise the question of how much momentum there is behind the market that has not already been baked in as people start to get back to the world and savings start going into the real activities. tom: futures up 20.

my slipped up to the market. europe closed, but america very much open. an important conversation next. stay with us. ritika: republicans may be willing to support a much smaller infrastructure spending bill now that president biden is supporting. one senator says he could see bipartisan support only if the administration cuts back on the proposal. the u.s. is moving ahead with plans to retaliate against six companies. they will be hit with tax that could total almost $1 million a year. everyone in england is now being urged to take a coronavirus test twice a week as part of the

prime minister's plan to open the economy. and a system of covert passports will be assessed for widescale use. jordan says it has uncovered a plot to destabilize the kingdom that involves the king's half-brother. the former crown prince works together with unnamed foreign entities. he is reportedly under house arrest and denies he is involved. nearly 60 people also have been arrested. an executive shakeup may be on the way at credit suisse. leaders are discussing whether or not to replace the chief. credit suisse is reeling from losses that could reach into the billions. global news 24 hours a day backed by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what the president proposed this week is not an infrastructure bill.

it is a huge tax increase and a tax increase on small businesses, on job creators in the united states of america. tom: we thank nbc for that film this morning. jonathan ferro off. it is chilly in capri. i think it is a little chilly there this time. right now, futures up 21. on my slipped to the market. let us address washington. we do so with a changed view after a mere one million jobs report. as we saw from the republican in mississippi, they're starting to be a structure to the pushback. what is the pushback of moderate democrats to the biden stimulus bill? >> i think one thing you are

seeing from moderate democrats is there is a bit of concern over the price tag, but we are also seeing more nuanced concerns as well. you have chuck schumer, who agrees with that as well. at this point, we are going to see a mostly united front from democrats, but behind the scenes are the negotiations come in. we want this, we don't want that. they have several months to get to yes. tom: help me with the framework of the number. do you see this as $2 trillion or do you just assume this migrates down to $1.5 trillion? emily: i do think you have this sense from democrats -- if we

look back on what happened with the covid package and we sort of use that as a template for what happened here, the biden administration wants to go big and get stuff done and they don't want to water down their plans because of republican concern. i think democrats -- 2022 is coming. they know they don't have great chances to keep the house. they want to make sure they are doing something they can go home and .2 for voters. they think there is a sense that the time to act is now. republicans have a nuanced message. they say it is not really an infrastructure plan, it has a small infrastructure subset being advertised. at the same time, they want to say we are for infrastructure spending. can you talk about republican acceptance of this plan and how far does it go? emily: once again, we can go back to the debate over the last covid spending package and republicans saying that only a

tiny portion of this package actually focused on vaccines and on covid. of course, it depends on exactly how you look at it. this broadband infrastructure? how exactly do we define infrastructure here. this is an argument we heard from republicans even before president biden introduced this plan. they were saying if democrats want to pack in things such as childcare and tax increases, we are not going to be going for it. i think that has really informed what you are seeing from democrats really appealing not just to republicans on capitol hill, but republicans throughout the u.s. including local officials and simply americans and voters. lisa: what is the timeframe? emily: we are just at the very beginning. congress is back home with their discharge until early next week. at that point, we are going to see them go through the entire process with this bill. we are hoping to see substantial movement by memorial day.

that is the timeline house leaders have set out. nancy pelosi says she wants to see something done around early july. the senate is looking at accomplishing something around september. tom: where does air force one get put into action? when does the president do biden diplomacy and start making the trips that every new president makes? emily: he has already started. he was in pittsburgh for this particular plan. tom: i know to someone like you, pittsburgh is a foreign country. i meant to get out the passport and go abroad. emily: i think a lot of that is going to depend on covid. right now, you have the pandemic and you have the travel restrictions. you a lot of things that would happen abroad happen virtually. i think to a certain degree, there is going to be a sense for the white house that they need to wait until americans can travel more freely to send

president biden on any sort of abroad. lisa: are you trying to chase emily away this early in the morning? tom: the lisa: tigers are killing it. lisa:let's get back on track and finish up with higher taxes. it is also new york state with raising the tax rate for the highest earners across the board leaving new york state with the highest tax rate in the nation. is this a template for other states to do the same? emily: i think it is something we are going to see play out. one of the big news stories were individuals moving away from new york city and other high cost cities to cheaper and more affordable areas. i think this is one of those things that we are going to see how it plays out. is this something that is eventually going to benefit new

york as a whole or something that will drive investment away? tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. i want to digress here and go to housing. absolutely stunning, the haves frenzy and real estate. it seems to be everywhere that if you have got money, you are buying a house. lisa: there was a story in the journal yesterday about how big institutions are increasingly investing in real estate. how does a young couple afford a home if they are competing -- if there competing buyers a private equity firm or some sort of foundation? this is a real issue especially as people contemplate how far this housing boom can potentially go. tom: and what is fascinating to me is this idea of an asset bubble.

the idea of all that money out there. i don't want to oversell this, but i am sorry, we are observing 2006 movement. lisa: although it is not driven by the same kind of leverage. there is leverage, to be clear, and plenty of it, but it is driven by ultra low rate, which raises the question, how can the modern world normalized with the debt load we have? more people are thinking about this as rate rises are being driven. tom: the thing that is important is that we are observing price action. i would also like to note that you saw the first "hold on a second" of the week. lisa: are you going to keep track? tom: of course we are keeping track. we have an intern in the control room. lisa: i think this is important.

how much can the real world normalized. i think that is a key question as the u.s. gets heat. tom: the haves are normalizing. coming up, frequency economics. stay with us on radio and television.

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tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro off this morning. kailey: most people are not at work in europe. markets are closed for the holiday. here in the u.s., we are trading when it comes to futures. right now, up 22 and 23 points. the new reflation trade is in full swing. i know you are watching the vix this morning. we're looking at a 17 handle.

the bond market was open for a half-day on friday. that is where we saw the real reaction. the 10 year yield sitting right around 2.7%. i have my eye on oil. opec said it will slowly add production back on the market today. you also have production ramping up in the shale patch as well. also in commodities, gold futures down. the dollar is mixed in the g10 space. i have my eye on the turkish lira. the dollar weaker against the lira by about .3%. you did have inflation data out

of turkey this morning. also, turkey is accusing 14 former generals of trying to overthrow our no one -- erdogan. tom: in the distance from istanbul is not that distant particularly with the heritage of the middle east. thank you so much. right now in international economics, carl weinberg with us. i really want to address china. we will keep it tight this morning. i look at china and i look at china within the economic locomotive that is the united states. i get the idea there is a locomotive and i guess there are many caboose is as well. where it china fit into that economic growth? >> good morning, great to be on the program. china, china. china is 1/6 of the world gdp. the united states is 1/6 of the

world gdp. they are both growing really fast, but together, they can pull forward with their neighbors. i just heard marc talking about how the u.s. economy will pull forward. china will pull forward its economic allies across the emerging world. this is old-school economic stimulus. the idea if you grow fast, you can pull other countries along and it makes you think the rate of growth is the most important thing. it does not address the quality of growth and that is what we have to see for other things to happen. lisa: let's sit on this for a second. do you think this will be less disruptive than some people are suggesting given the fact the u.s. is leading the way for a lot of countries? or do you think this could potentially pose a problem for companies highly indebted in dollars? carl: i think it is a

differential experience in the emerging world than in the advanced economies, emerging economies. they are going to have a problem moving forward with debt burdens. we are going to see restructuring of loans coming out. this forgiveness program the imf implemented a year ago to put off repayment of sovereign debt. those repayments still have to be made. i hope we will see them talk about it today. as far as the dollar getting stronger and commodity prices going up, there is going to be some of that, but i don't think it is going to be enough to break the recovery in any important form. commodity prices matter to companies, but not nearly as much as labor costs do. labor cost universally are going to be very low for a very long time. lisa: there is a question on how much china can pull forward the emerging world right now given they are morphing into a different kind of economy trying to rein in leverage with some efforts over the weekend to tap

some of the increases we have seen in the market. how much does that inhibit potential for the emerging world to grow? carl: policy has always been focused on keeping growth balanced and that does not change very much. the headline to look out for china is that if you can do seasonal adjustment on china or are brave enough to do so, you see the first quarter is going to be about 9% gdp growth at a rate comparable to how we look at the u.s. economy. that is going to generate imports. it is going to generate imports of all kinds of services like -- by chinese consumers and businesses and so forth. this is going to help companies around -- countries around china grow faster. tom: let's turn to america. tell us about your guesstimate

on rising wages. jp morgan speaks of a 7 million job formation rapidly. can you link 7 million of job formation into rising wages? carl: not just yet. we have 3.5% of the workforces -- gdp is still 3.5% lower than it was. we still have 70 more unemployed people than we did before all of this began. there is still plenty of slack in the way. this massive demand for goods in the united states is pulling industrial production up even though the economy is sagging. this is a short-term factor. people can spend money on services. as soon as the economy has reopened, we expect it will reopen in due course. as soon as they reopen, spending

will rotate back to the normal balance of goods and services and excess will slump off very quickly. i don't see the job pressures building. tom: i'm going to call it a run rate of 3% on services inflation and outright disinflation if not deflation in goods prices. carl: this is the big question. this is the whole new idea the biden administration is creating is that we have to look at the quality of our growth, not just the quantity of it. this whole secular stagnation thing we have been in is because we have a lot of low cost activity jobs that keeps everybody working. if we can find the windfall in this tragedy that has been fallen the world economy, if we

can find the windfall as an opportunity to bring people back to work and better jobs and move the back to jobs and services and move them into higher-paying, higher productivity jobs, then we can do what china has been doing which is adding incremental growth to quality gains. lisa: do you support the end -- do you think the entire bill is necessary to get that good type of job growth you are talking about? carl: it can't hurt. private industry has to step up to the incentives. they have to be willing to invest in training people. they have to be willing to take risks and they have to be incentivized to engage and compete with china and be better

than china is in every area in which china is seeking to excel. lisa: i want to get to a more tangible story. over the weekend, delta canceled 100 flights because they had staffing shortages. we are hearing of staffing shortages throughout the travel and leisure sector as they work to meet soaring demands. how much do these frictions factor into growth estimates or is this just rounding around the edges that we will soon not be talking about? carl: i think it is just the transition costs. we have never seen this before. we have never seen the economy go from 100 to zero in two months before.

we have not seen the economy restart like this in a matter of weeks. i would like to think these are just transitional factors that are going to be worked out in a very short order because delta wants to fly airplanes and make money again. i can't promise that because i have never seen it before, but once they have time, they will be back to being able to supply as much as they did before. tom: thank you so much. i really can't say enough about not one, but two notes, three notes, four notes. i don't know what to make of this. i don't know whether to call the holiday tape or not, but futures up has become futures up 80 -- lisa: nearly one million jobs

created in the month of march. people looking at an economy when there is still ample -- not something you want to bet against. still some hurdles. i do wonder, especially coming off our conversation on covid, how much we have dismissed the pandemic that is still ongoing. tom: we spent a lot of time this weekend on this. i guess the u.s. is there and we are going to talk about this through the show today with the good professionals that have helped us, but i find devastating when i read about india and brazil. lisa: 100,000 cases diagnosed overnight. this idea of how quickly it is accelerating and how quickly the new strains are adding to it because the variation out of the united kingdom can actually spread much longer and remains much more infectious. that is what i was reading

about. tom: macron with that gdp markdown for france. coming up, joshua, you get an update on this pandemic. on radio, on television, this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: republicans may go for some form of infrastructure spending bill, but one senior senator says democrats will have to cut the price tag by two thirds. he says he could see bipartisan support on improving facilities like roads and possibly water systems. johnson & johnson is taking over a baltimore vaccine facility that was the side of a major error last month. bloomberg has learned the biden ministration is helping out. it worked with astrazeneca to move its own production out of the factory so it could focus

only on j&j. that is to minimize the risk of another mistake. will a four-day week hurt the economy? spain's prime minister wants to find out. he will ask hundred's of companies to participate in a task -- test. the idea of a small left-wing political party. shares of gamestop falling in free-market trading. the video game retail chain says it will sell after 3.2 5 million shares. gamestop is a roller coaster that has been championed by reddit based traders. two iconic monsters may have provided the breakthrough hollywood needed. "godzilla vs kong" drew in the largest crowd since the start of the pandemic a year ago.

it brought in more than $48 million over the five day good friday holiday. this is the u.s. is just starting to reopen. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> as we immunize millions upon tens of millions of people,

these very rare vaccine associated events are going to come through as a trigger. the important thing to keep going on is understanding how that penetrance is, how low that is an weighing the cost benefit analysis. tom: johns hopkins university school of public health. right now, we are going to continue to discuss this with his colleague. what i saw this morning and this weekend was an explosion in brazil and particularly, the new wary that many of you have called for in india. tell our american viewers and listeners what it means to see this explosion in the third world of pandemic. joshua: first of all, it is terrible because it means a lot more people are getting sick and potentially running the risk of

long-term consequences or even dying. for everyone, it runs the risk of new variants developing because when there is so much violence transmitting from person-to-person, there are billions of opportunities for the virus to mutate. i think we have to really take seriously the need for the world to be vaccinated. tom: how do we do that? how do you propose that all of your reading and the research of john hopkins that the western world and the successful examples like the united kingdom and united states, and frankly, israel and select others, how do they extend a to them so that they can get control of a pandemic? joshua: i think there are a few things. one of them is to make a lot more vaccines, to really try to scale up production. that can be done directly through working with companies or indirectly by having those vaccines made elsewhere in the world like has been done for other types of medical product

as well as an article in the new york times today trying to find other types of vaccines that are even easier to make. i think at this point, it should not be a question of whether we are going to help the world get back, but how and how quickly cannot realistically be done? we should take the same sense of urgency we had for vaccinated the u.s. population because really, it is one world and it is humanity versus the virus. lisa: we could just as well be facing europe as they are facing increasing setbacks. based on what you have seen, do you think that europe is getting its act together and getting closer to a more sustainable vaccination schedule or further away as more questions get raised about the astrazeneca vaccine? joshua: i'm having a hard time really figuring out everything going on with europe and the vaccine because every week, there is a different set of headlines about it.

i guess they had a lot of investment in the astrazeneca vaccine, which has these different kinds of challenges. they did not have the ability to get there vaccines out very quickly. unfortunately, they lost the rates to the virus. they have had this huge surge including when a lot of the u.k. variant in europe, which is really terrible. i think it is in all of our interest to help europe pull out of this. latin america also still has a lot of cases. other parts of the world. it really is necessary for us to be thinking about that. the u.s. had the worst outbreak. it is totally understandable we focus on the u.s. first, but now, as vaccines become available to everyone and we continue to push into areas and communities that need the vaccine in this country, we have to also be increasing our focus on the rest of the world. lisa: in the u.s., we did just

exceed 4 million doses put into arms and one day. the number is exceeding rapidly, which is great. how soon after the first shot can someone say they had any protection? that is what people are feeling when they walk out. joshua: it is not 10 minutes. it is more like two weeks. two weeks, you start to get protection. the protection really is not full until two weeks after the second shot. there are situations of people getting quite ill and even dying after the first shot because they got sick right afterward. it is really important to not stumble on that last -- lisa: are you saying there is no protection after the first vaccine shot before two weeks is up? joshua: correct.

there is really no evidence of protection for the first two weeks. lisa: i don't know what to do with that. tom: i see north dakota. let us go out fargo, north dakota. lisa: please. tom: i'm sorry, it is a success. seven day moving average, zero deaths. what does the author -- geography do that enjoys zero? joshua: north dakota had a horrific outbreak. they had one of the highest death rates in the country. i think they have a combination of several factors. they have a big geography where people don't necessarily live that close together, which is certainly an advantage for the virus. they have vaccinations, which they are giving out. a lot of people were infected. a lot of people have the immunity of varying length and is perhaps temporary for some people after being infected, but so many people were infected. i think all of those things are

helping north dakota. i'm not sure that was the recipe for everyone else. tom: very quickly, do you suggest north dakota enjoys herd immunity? joshua: herd immunity is sort of an ethereal concept. it is benefiting from some of the factors that add up to herd immunity. not necessarily in a good way because it had such a terrible experience. tom: thank you so much. i was thinking of this and i thought of you in fargo. how far did you have to drive? lisa: there were a couple of gas stations nearby. i was looking at you saying is north dakota a recipe for other areas? the entire state has less than 800,000 people who live there. when you talk about interactions and visitors and mobility, we talk about some of these other factors that make it challenging, it is very hard to use north dakota as a template

for a place like los angeles or new york city. tom: it is amazing as you go from story to story, just a massive variants and deaths and hospitalizations and cases. lisa: and approaches. on one hand, it has to be controlled by local governments because they know the challenges and perhaps some of the aspects they can use of the society to get to the herd immunity. on the other hand, it raises the question about a cohesive rollout. what about 16 and older? it raises a question about how much we can get a synchronized recovery. tom: exactly. it is hugely fluid right now. i urge you to keep looking at those statistics. futures up 22. dow futures up to 28. the vix, a stunning 17.93 in

this great bull market. oil, $60.34. stay with us on equity markets. this is bloomberg on radio and television.

♪ >> we still have a long way to go. we are not anywhere near where we were a year ago today. >> it is going to still be a long hall to recover that quickly and get inflation higher. >> this could be a shorter but hotter cycle. >> the u.s. is going to tug everyone along for the ride. it is just going to take a little but a little but of time for synchronization to kick in. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" on a monday. a full week in the united states. most of europe off today, as well as jonathan ferro. we are thrilled he has taken some well-deserved days. lisa and me with you through the hour. i'm sorry, it's a nuanced and interesting