g d of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's golo.com. ♪ ♪ >> the biggest driver of equity markets and the economy right now is the recovery from the pandemic. >> there's a lot of optimism in the markets about where the economy is going. >> to really get that acceleration upwards, we need to see earnings show up. >> when you look at the core pce deflator, it looks like we killed inflation. >> this is all the classic manifestations of a very frothy environment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: the concept of risk in an era of hope. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance"

on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. jon ferro is off today. he will be back later this week. i will not rip him about taking time off because i think it is very well-deserved, and everybody feels like they need a break after the last 12 months. this is a very interesting moment where hope needs to meet reality, and i think liz ann sonders nailed it when she's that we just don't know if we are setting the bar too high or too low. tom: j.p. morgan kicks off earnings season. then you go to april 28, fed day. i really wonder, where are we 31 days from now? to me it is a complete mystery as corporations reset, and this stock market resets for the expectations of the autumn and into winter. lisa: president biden coming out reportedly on cnn this morning, saying he is setting a target date of april 19 for all adults

to be eligible to get vaccinated. we keep bringing the targets up, adding to this optimism, yet there is a key question. it is those projections out that we really have a lack of clarity on. padhraic: -- tom: they begin a messaging campaign, and the message last night was 38,000 at the texas rangers baseball game. they said we are going to fill the seats, and you heard dr. adalja. he wasn't happy about that. lisa: it is a race to get ahead of the pandemic with the vaccines, and we are not quite winning it yet. the case counts have been stubbornly high because of these variations. tom: i did look at the statistics of brazil and india, and they are not good. let's look at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities.

american oil under $60 a barrel. in the foreign exchange market, not much going on. sterling, 1.3828. ferro spending the sterling in capri. yield not giving me much today. in the equity markets, a turn, but a little -- a churn, but a little better tape in the last few minutes. nuveen is part of tiaa, but before that was the single best house of management in the nation. brian nick joins us with nuveen, their chief investment strategist. i want to go back to what you have learned about the core competency of nuveen and municipal finance in this infrastructure bill, the stimulus bill. i know it is the nuveen rescue

plan. we can call it that. but what does it mean for those to take advantage of tax-free bonds? brian: this is something we were waiting for going back to the march stimulus plan that passed, and before that the december 1 as well -- the december one as well. a lot of us were waiting for the push from the federal government to get into a lot of states and localities, and support at least the perception of the credit status of municipal bonds. you saw a lot of munis pretty distressed levels. some of that has been taken out. munis have been of the outperforming parts of the bond market this year. tom: that is why i say the nuveen rescue plan which to say with great honor towards the institution. it is an underestimation of politics to the rescue. can you be optimistic forward

because of politics to the rescue? brian: i think we can. we just put out our second-quarter outlook. if we were gaming the south back in november, december, where we are today really fits firmly in, but we would have called the upside scenario back then, meaning we are way ahead of schedule on vaccinations in the u.s. the economy has come roaring out of the gate. we had thought that the quarter might be negative for the u.s. economy. that is clearly not the case. we have seen interest rates move up occasionally to uncomfortable levels, and even a tick higher. the key here is not just the earnings season, but the macro that continues to exceed expectations we saw yesterday on the ism services. the fact that economists are still having to catch up to just how good this economy has come roaring out of the gate in 2021 means i think we are going to

see the same kind of upside surprises in the earnings season as well. lisa: are you talking about the world or the united states? brian: from a pandemic perspective, the u.s. and the u.k. and a couple of other countries have come out very strong, vaccinating large percentages of their population much more quickly than we could haven't dissipated. but in general, the data has also been quite good, even in the countries that haven't gotten there vaccinations up and running as quickly. you see those pmi surveys in china overnight quite strong, and the eurozone quite strong. as long as there's a couple of large economies that seem like they are doing well, a lot of the rest of the world is going to benefit. this year has been a risk on year so far, with the u.s. leading. we don't think that is necessarily going to remain the case. . . later in the year, we could see

a more full-fledged rally in that market as well. lisa: right now it is being led by the united states and the u.k. other areas are lagging behind. this has led to that strong dollar that has upended some of the consensus heading into 2021. can you fold a dollar call into your outlook for emerging markets? ? because so far this year, it hasn't worked the way people expected, even though it has been a risk on environment. brian: the dollar weaken a lot in 2020, so we are coming off of a relatively weak level, and it has rallied. pastor this big counter stimulus bill -- we passed this big counter stimulus bill in a go it alone fashion, and that brought the dollar up. that tightens global financial conditions, particularly unwelcome for emerging market currencies and assets yet i

don't think that is going to be the case. we are to seeing a different magnitude of how good the growth pickup is going to be. it is hard for that not to spill over to the benefit of e.m.. there's a lot of idiosyncratic risk here. you look at vaccination, caseloads. think that will affect willingness to engage in higher parts of the bond market in e.m., higher yield in currencies, how can control of the pandemic are we in these countries. but our strategists and portfolio managers are still quite bullish, even if the dollar doesn't supply all of that supply we getting. we will still get asset appreciation this year. tom: the great mystery is the basic idea of extrapolating past q2 into q3, to the total mystery of q4 into 2022. you've got a nuveen network of research across the station. you've got every resource of /i -- of tiaa.

can you give us a better outlook on what we will see next year? brian: i think it is about how aggressive does the bond market get in pricing the fed about-face tom: are you calling for that -- the fed about-face. tom: are you calling for that? brian: no, we think 2% is a reasonable level, and i think a benign level for other markets. reddit markets have been completely unbothered by the backup and that in year unbothered -- unbothered by the backup in that. i think it is part of the volatility we saw on the first quarter. if the fed changes communication around the dots and the eventual lift off and the pace of rate hikes, my sense is they are not going to do that. they are much more interested in

seeing inflation above 2% and seeing unemployment perhaps below 3%, sometimes for the next couple of years. which means the runaway -- which means the runway for most of the assets is long. lisa: investors like the u.s. over the rest of the world. do you disagree with that? do you prioritize europe and the emerging markets based on hope versus reality? there's more potential for upside surprise. brian: the valuation gap continues to attract us somewhat to those non-us parts of the market. i think mainly, emerging markets at this point, we are willing to wait and see on europe. it is hard to ignore the u.s. being the dominant growth driver and having those high percentages in growth sectors. if you are looking for anything around the tech debt we saw in the first quarter -- the tech dip we sign the first quarter,

that is where the bounce is going to come in. but i think with the dollar being a strong as it is, especially against emerging markets and with that valuation gap still pretty wide, and with earnings momentum starting to look really good in emerging markets, i think that is an area where, certainly by the end of this quarter, over the balance of the year, we could really see come back and eventually it slips the u.s. by the end of the year. tom: brian nick. what surprises me is they are getting recapitulation of e.m. enthusiasm. lisa: and it is really overnight. i think this is the key question. can we get a weaker dollar from here? a number of wall street houses are saying maybe not. you've got a tightening fed, fiscal policy tightening. you need a weaker dollar. tom: coming up, it stretches

from st. louis up south to springfield and up in the vicinity of chicago in the distant horizon. the 13th congressional district of illinois. rodney davis will join us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden reportedly wants to move up his deadline for all adults to be eligible for the coronavirus vaccine to april 19, according to cnn. previously, the president said may 1 was his target date. he will discuss vaccines later today in washington. iran and world powers have begun them serious attempt yet to revive that troubled nuclear deal, and for the first time since donald trump's in the agreement into freefall, american and iranian negotiators are in the same room. iran is insisting the u.s. lift sanctions.

the white house has ruled out any unilateral gestures. a tough day at credit suisse. the bank will take a $4.7 billion write down tied to the implosion of archegos capital management. plus, to top executives will be replaced after serious questions -- plus, two top executives will be replaced after questions about risk management at the firm. last month's election was israel's fourth in two years. the outcome was inconclusive. there's notes here path for iver -- for either netanyahu or his rival to put together a government. delta has recalled all 1700 pilots who were at home. meanwhile, southwest says more than 200 pilots will return from

voluntary leave on june 1. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is a very tough environment because you don't want to raise rates in the midst of what is still a downturn, and

at the same time, you can't sit back and say ok, we are not going to worry about inflation because that also, in itself, is quite an aggressive setback. tom: that is the world bank chief economist with my essay of the summer last summer on the real challenge is coming out of global gdp. we will get reaffirmation of that in 12 minutes out of the international monetary fund. looking forward to that. right now, on our domestic politics in america, we look northeast to st. louis to cardinals territory, moving to springfield and somewhere in the vicinity of chicago. it is the 13th congressional district of illinois and the republican rodney davis joins us this morning. thank you so much for joining us. do you need a six lane highway from taylorville into springfield? what are you going to get out of the infrastructure bill? rep. davis: you know what?

we already have four lanes between taylorville and springfield that's great for our community. i just hope we get some bipartisanship out of the infrastructure bill. that is what i am hoping for. tom: centrist democrats who need to get reelected and centrist republicans. two cycles ago, you barely won reelection. this time around, you did better than ever. are you a centrist republican? what is the common ground you have with senator manchin of west virginia? rep. davis: he has shown he can be a force in the senate. the problem we have with this infrastructure package, and bipartisanship was the message that ranking members sam graves and i and a small group of republicans sent directly to the president, to the vice

president, to secretary buttigieg a few weeks ago. we need bipartisanship. i just don't think speaker pelosi and leader schumer are going to allow the administration to go that route. lisa: given your experience on the committee for transportation , infrastructure, roads and bridges, this is your purview. what does a true bipartisan bill that could pass look like? how big is it, and what does it focus on? rep. davis: i don't like to get into debates about how much something should cost. let's actually dedicate a bill towards rebuilding our roads and bridges, our waterways, our error reports -- our airports. if you do that, you would have republicans crawling all over each other to support that. the problem we are going to have is i believe this infrastructure proposal is going to be nothing more than the green new deal disguised under a convenient infrastructure title that will dedicate a small amount towards roads, bridges, waterways, etc. it is very frustrating, you see

in the proposal, the administration wants to spend $50 billion to stand up another agency within the department of commerce and $42 billion for all of the roads, all of the ports and airports within this country. that is not inseparable. lisa: let's say there is a bipartisan agreement on the infrastructure plans you thought were necessary, and it is a pretty expensive plan. would you support raising corporate taxes in order to pay for it? rep. davis: not at all. i think opening up the income tax code to pay for infrastructure is the wrong way to go. there's a lot of talk from secretary buttigieg and others, who i have already enjoyed a good working relationship with, talking about jobs being created with this package. i want to know how many jobs are going to be cost and small businesses that will have to pay more taxes. tom: i am sure you want an

all-star game to be held there in the home of the cardinals. it went to the rockies. but it is the why of the all-star game, the debate over georgia and this voting rights act and what georgia will do about it selections. talk about what the -- about elections. talk about what the republican response should be. guest: -- rep. davis: i wish some would have read the bill and seen the expansion of voting for georgia. this bill would open more precincts. those are the types of issues i certainly hope corporate america stays off of twitter and starts actually looking at legislation. my biggest fear is the democrats are going to try to act like hr-1, that passed only with a partisan roll call, i think they

are going to try to turn that into the national version of george's reforms, and that bill will be a disaster. tom: the georgia distinction is removing the decision process of elections from the secretary of state of georgia and the executive branch over to legislative control. legislative control is an ancient art form in your state of illinois. is that the trap we have in that our voting processes become a legislative process, not that at the executive branch? rep. davis: we need to make sure our states and localities have control over their elections as the constitution puts forth. the democrats have tried for two congresses, and i have led the fight against hr-1, which would expand procedures like ballot harvesting that have already been corrupted with fraud. we didn't see an elected republican in north carolina's ninth district in 2019 because one of his operatives used a fraudulent process by trying to

create a ballot harvesting process in that district. the unfortunate thing is he will likely go to jail because of that, but if he was in california, what he did would have been perfectly legal. and that is wrong. those are the types of polic ies democrats in washington are trying to push forth. they are also going to add public money to their campaigns. i don't want hr-1 to become the next rally and cry because it is not a voting rights bill at all. lisa: part of what you are hearing from you is decrying this at him debt bipartisanship that is now a very much democratic effort, but a lot of people say they just learned from prior administrations, including the obama administration, that tried to do something on bipartisanship and did not get anything done. what is your response to that? rep. davis: on infrastructure, because they failed miserably in what they proposed.

you can't come up with a piece of legislation that you know is only going to appease one side and say take it or leave it. look at the last time we had a non-reauthorization infrastructure package. that was under the obama administration with the obama era stimulus bill. that bill had about 6% of the funding dedicated towards infrastructure. even the current democratic chair of the transportation and infrastructure committee voted against that bill because it wasn't enough infrastructure. i see democrats going down that exact same path. the proposal they laid forth is woefully underfunded when it comes to rebuilding our roads and bridges. if that is what is going to happen, they are going to negotiate with the far left of their party, and it is only going to get worse for our economy. tom: that is the largest backyard i have seen in i think 30 years. i hope the kid mowing that lawn is not using a push mower. they are out on a john deere

golf cart or whatever. rodney davis, thank you so much conga the compass -- thank you so much, the congressman from illinois. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

tom: a market check. dow futures -45. better than it was does two hours ago. nasdaq green as well. the yield, 1.69%. francine lacqua and i are supposed to be in washington meeting and greeting the world elite. instead i can do better and great michael mckee, our economics and parler see correspondent. -- our economics and policy correspondent. michael: the imf has grown more positive about the rebound from the coronavirus downturn. the world economy, he says, will grow 6% in 2021. that 6% is .5% higher than they

forecast in january. in 2022 the world grows at a 4.4% rate. china, the only country that posted a positive growth rate in 2020 will grow the fastest, followed by the united states. 1.3% faster growth for 2021 then we had forecast, then they had forecast in january. the european countries trailing. the euro zone numbers are much weaker. some of those countries are suffering. spain had the biggest downturn in 2020. they will have a big upturn in 2021 but it leaves them well below where they were. you can see germany is struggling to grow at 3.6% this year and 3.4% next year. while those are little bit higher, they are not significant. with the positivity comes a warning from the imf. a stronger forecast.

they say in the world economic outlook it presents daunting challenges related to the divergences in the speed of the recovery across and within countries and the potential for persistent economic damage from the crisis. in other words, we are not vaccinating at the same rate. the rich countries have the vaccine and the poor countries do not and that will make a difference. countries that depend on travel and tourism will suffer. they make the point that advanced economies from 2020 to 2022 will see income losses of 11%, while emerging market countries see 20% losses in per capita income. tom: i would suggest that in washington the distance from the world bank in the imf has never been tighter. they have coalesced together, worried about the third world, emerging market economies, brazil and india front and center.

can they do something about it or is it rhetoric? michael: there is a major proposal being discussed, probably voted on in june, to increase the allocation of sdr, the reserve currency of the imf. they give more to more countries and those countries can turn that in. there are people on capitol hill in the united states, particular republicans who say countries could use that money to pay back china for its belt and road program and some emerging market economies will not spend it on pandemic relief it should be spent on, but it will line people's pockets. the third objection is countries like iran and venezuela and russia would get additional cash come in part funded by the united states. tom: thank you so much. much more on this. catherine mann joins us. catherine mann citigroup global

chief economist. i want to talk about the locomotive that is the u.s.. are there any trains behind the locomotive and what is the caboose? catherine: the u.s. is the locomotive, it is the one country growing faster than everyone else relative to historical. it is the one that will be running a larger trade deficit over the next year. virtually everyone else is either running a smaller deficit or a bigger surplus. the u.s. is back on track to be the locomotive. the problem is it is not quite as large as it used to be. it is not quite as powerful as it used to be. it is going to be a challenge to get up the hill. lisa: there is also a question of how much this brings the rest of the world along with it. that is one of the big

disagreements on wall street. how much to bet on the u.s. versus the rest of the world or the other areas that will get carried along? what is your view on that based on the concept of a strengthening dollar given the amount of dollar-denominated debt out there? catherine: emerging markets tend to be the most at risk and we are talking about dollar-denominated debt. it is important to think about the two factors relevant when thinking about an appreciation of the dollar. the first role -- the first rule, that is the trade channel, an important channel breaking in imports relative to the concerns about dollar-denominated debt and the exposure countries have when you have an appreciated of the dollar. those two are not in opposition to one another. what we have found in looking at the taper tantrum period relative to where we are now is many economies are in the position of gaining when the

dollar appreciates because not only do they have dollar-denominated debt, but they also have dollar-denominated reserves. you have to consider that when thinking about exposure on the financial side. lisa: this is an argument the rest of the world can come along more than some people think. is that your view, and will you see an acceleration that picks up speed in the emerging-market and europe, perhaps in 2022 as the u.s. slows down? catherine: we have to consider the u.s. will not be the only thing positive for emerging markets. that has to do with the vaccination path and how soon those economies can get vaccinated and how soon they can get back on track with their own internal and domestic demand. that is an important ingredient in the growth process for any economy. they cannot depend on export led growth. we have to remember the u.s. is

not as strong a locomotive as it used to be 20 years ago. tom: used to be your part of this is whether we are a more open or less open economy. where does the u.s. stand as an open economy? that dynamic to other nations? catherine: globalization, as a general rule, has been on the back foot for more than a decade in terms of the slowing of integration into the global economy. there has been a generalized slow down and terms of that integration and the u.s. is no exception. on the back of the last administration's approach to trade policy, which was to be very protectionist, that made the u.s. less open. the general tenor of the debate is it is not towards openness, so we have to be concerned about the politics of an enlarging

trade deficit we will see in the data. have to worry about the politics of it leading to more of a retrenchment in terms of globalization. lisa: we have to worry about debt sustainability? catherine: debt sustainability is a question of which economies will be able to grow fast enough to put them on a sustainable path. there is an intimate relationship between domestic demand fed growth, export orientation for most of the world, and debt sustainability. what matters for debt sustainability is long-term capacity, what we call potential output. that depends on business investment. we have to have business investment being catalyzed by the infrastructure programs that the u.s. is talking about, that europe is talking about, that a number of countries are talking about. something that is climate

oriented will require private sector investment, and that is a critical ingredient, along with labor markets and productivity growth. tom: a few years ago at the massachusetts institute of technology you had the privilege of working with rudy dornbusch. he handed you the bible as you graduated from m.i.t.. tell us about the bible the great rudy dornbusch handed you. catherine: he was one of my thesis advisors. what he gave me, a signed copy of the first edition of international economics. that represents both rudy's, his first edition, which integrated goods and markets and asset markets into one place. his bible, and then of course his mentors bible, meaning robert mondale's international

economics, those are my bibles today. tom: the continuity of the sector is extraordinary. i can think of nowhere else where there is such a cadence as there is an international economics. what do we think today robert mondale invented 50 years ago? catherine: the most famous thing we have been working with in the open economy that has his name on it is the mondale-fleming model which puts three different markets together. the investment savings part of the economy, the monetary policy , and the open economy, meaning balance and payments and how that change with regards to exchange rates. those are the three markets that continue to be the important ones. how we measure them is different, and how they work together is different. those are the drivers of economic performance. tom: did they take it for

granted at the time. revolutionary for robert mundell. thank you. catherine mann. citigroup global economist. it extraordinary to see the timeline of this and all we talked about over the years. those rules then still a part of what we do today. lisa: the fundamental still driving, even though we have a vastly changed scenario. we are trying to understand how we are misstating the future as we look to hope versus reality. we will carry that conversation forward. tom: what is interesting is the idea of the bond market is litmus paper for the system. it was not like that 50 years ago. lisa: there is a question of how much the litmus paper at a time of central bank innovation. we will drive that forward on the open. brian belski will be among those

joining me on a jon ferro property i will be joining in his absence, or some people might say, sabbatical. tom: sabbatical. we will see. it depends if the gulf stream can get him home. futures -- red and green on the screen. this is bloomberg. good morning. ritika: credit suisse is paying the price for its involvement in the collapse of archegos capital management. the bank will take a 4.7 billion dollar right down and replace two top executives. the investment bank had and chief risk officer are leaving. a series of scandals raised questions about credit suisse risk management. in china the central bank has asked the nation's major lenders to curtail loan growth the rest of the year. a surge in lending raised concern of a bubble rest. -- a bubble risk.

new zealand has agreed to open a quarantine free travel corridor with australia. it is a major boost to the countries ailing tourism industry. new zealand prime minister says the so-called travel bubble will open april 19. the pandemic forced two neighbors to close their international borders more than a year ago. the french government has come to the rescue of air france klm. it will give 4.7 million dollars as part of recapitalization plan and raise its stake in the airline up to 30%. the aide will go to air france klm but will benefit only the french unit the netherlands continuing to talk on a plane of its own. bp -- the london-based energy company says it has already achieved its $35 million net debt target, the threshold it set for buybacks.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is very difficult to have a mass gathering like this with less than 20% of your population

vaccinated, which is the case with texas. you wonder with the prevalence of the disease in the community, if this will lead to transmission events and super-spreader events and put contact tracers underwater because they have so many cases to track. tom: johns hopkins university. an exceptionally strong to have conversations on the pandemic. the doctor talking about 38,238 people at the baseball game, the texas rangers last night. he was not upset about it but showing the concern of the speed of vaccination versus our urgency to get out. we continue that conversation with lloyd minor. he is now the dean of the stanford university school of medicine. it barely describes the path he with original research and solution for inner ear disorders.

good morning. i wish we had three hours. we do not. i want to go to what california is doing, saying we have to figure out how to get the kids vaccinated. from where you sit, do we know? is it safe for children to be vaccinated? dr. minor: those trials are underway. trials for adolescents are well into the accrual phase and we are getting data back on that in real time. there will also be trials going down to younger ages. i agree that in order to have the type of rot immunity we need to tamp down covid-19, we will need to have vaccination for children. i am optimistic that as we work with the cdc and the fda, perhaps later this year we will be able to do that. tom: i need to go to the worry of variants. i can say all pandemics, all viruses have a variants. at your clinical virology lab

you are focused on india. the math out of india is not good, is it? dr. minor: we were the first in the united states to identify one of the variants of concern from india, a variant that has two critical mutations in the spike protein. we and others are watching the variant situation closely, as we have all learned. the vaccines available today still have efficacy against the variants. some not as effective as towards the original strain, but they still have some degree of efficacy against the variants. it is still important that people get vaccinated because that will do more than anything else to make sure the variants do not get ahead and quell the

encouraging progress we have made in controlling the pandemic. tom: if you look at tetanus and the span from bacteriology to virology do you just assume down the road we will all get shots to redo our vaccine now? is it just a given that x number of years out i will be back getting pfizer, moderna, j&j, whatever? dr. minor: one of the things we have learned is we are experiencing a renaissance in vaccine knology. it is likely that for covid related diseases, perhaps for other diseases, we will have new vaccines that are very effective against deadly viral diseases. it is ushering in a new era of preventative medicine that is exciting. tom: i want to go to the california experience. so much waiting in lines. we spoke to the at council

earlier about giving people the confidence to be vaccinated. what do you need to see in california to boost that confidence, to get people to get the courage to get vaccinated? dr. minor: confidence is one issue. a fundamental issue is availability of the vaccine. for people to be able to have accessible ways to get the vaccine. it is fine to have an online system to sign up for appointments. that has been critically important. there are some that do not have internet access, there are others that do not have the means to get to the vaccination site. we have to reach out to those people and make sure if they wish to be vaccinated they have the opportunity to be vaccinated. tom: the opportunity to be vaccinated comes down to the distribution. where do you think we will be on may 6 or june 6? what is the timeline you see?

dr. minor: i am encouraged by the timeline. this past saturday, more than 4 million americans received a dose of the vaccine. that number has continued to rise. with increased availability of the three vaccines that have been given fda emergency use authorization in the u.s., with their increased availability we will be able to vaccinate more and more people. the timeline is encouraging to continue to increase the number of daily doses of vaccine administered in the united states. tom: tell us about our hospitals. do you feel like they are properly funded with the stimulus? have we gone beyond the hospital crisis? dr. minor: there are still concerns for the hospitals. the entire operation of hospitals were disrupted in fundamental ways at all stages of the pandemic. we are now catching up with the care that was deferred because of periods in which access to

care was either shut down or greatly diminished out of concerns for the safety of health care workers and patients. we need to continue to focus on providing that care, the prevention we know is important. hospitals need to continue to receive attention amps up work. tom: lloyd minor, thank you so much, and thank you to stanford for the research on the indian variant lord minor, dean of the school of medicine -- lloyd minor, dean of the school of medicine at stanford university droid the international monetary fund out with extraordinary lifts to their outlook. making clear there is a give urgent. not news. to see it codified by the imf is important. our michael mckee noting substantial growth in the united

states. china out to an 8% statistic as well. others lagging behind. michael mckee mentioned germany as a laggard. all that folding in to the pandemic and the virus as we have noted. it is a week that is churning after jobs we. right now is -10 on futures. better futures than what we saw three hours ago. positive nasdaq futures, right negative there as well. dollar dynamics have been so -- you saw a weaker dollar over last three days. you saw that in yen. right now hundred 993 as well. turkish -- right now 109.93. the turkish lira. real challenges for mr. erdogan. damian sassower on bloomberg especially cautious on turkey. stay with us through the day.

jason furman will join david westin on "balance of power." an update on the fiscal reality of infrastructure. stay with us on bloomberg radio come on bloomberg television. good morning. ♪

lisa: from new york city for our

viewers worldwide, i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. the countdown to the open starts now. we begin with the big issue, the return of u.s. exceptionalism. >> u.s. is firing on on cylinders. >> we are seeing a big acceleration. >> extraordinary economic activity in north america. >> it is remarkable considering where we have come from. >> blockbuster data. >> vaccine rollout and enormous stimulus. >> the u.s. is definitely -- >> coming strong pure >> the u.s. is going to talk everyone along for the ride. >> there's no way to go wrong buying u.s. assets. lisa: what does that mean for the rest of the world? let's bring in michael mckee and kailey leinz. michael: the imf is out with its latest economic forecast and the guy on the bar who is buying ar