caroline: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york and here in london, i am caroline hyde. romaine: let's look at where the markets ended on the day. coming off yesterday's record high rally, stocks taking a breather with the s&p, dow, and nasdaq down slightly on the day. caroline: optimism remains abound. stimulus, surging vaccinations

that biden was just speaking about, all of this has helped drive higher. stock prices going to new records even in europe, playing catch-up with the record highs here on the day. particularly the jobs numbers have many on wall street off guard. they have to try their hand at forecasting new variables. the black unemployment rate, the fed's focus on broad-based economic recovery at long last, some might say. data, analysis, an added bonus for crypto. first of all, the data, it was good. joe: pretty good signs of the data. the jolt, which measures job openings. job openings surging, which fits with anecdotal evidence we are getting. there you see the actual

numbers. job openings exploding higher. even with all the optimism, catching people by surprise. romaine: i wonder about the quality of the jobs. that will be a big component. joe: let's welcome it reade pickert. lots of job openings. what about that quality? where are the areas we are seeing the fastest expansion? >> as you mentioned, we got the job openings for february today. it is important to think of that, remember it is february because it is a little backward looking in that we got the marks -- got the march jobs report last week. what we saw was that job openings rose to a two-year high in february led by some of the industries that have been hardest hit by the pandemic. think things like health care, accommodation, and restaurants.

caroline: interesting, the breakdown you say it is backward looking. but what do we understand for why we can supply demand and balance. as romaine pointed to, the quality of the jobs at the moment. and people wanting to go into them. >> on the whole, more job openings is good news. it signals that employers are increasingly willing to hire. it fits in with that narrative about this recent upbeat, positive data like the jobs report last week, like the ism services index. just because these jobs are open does not mean employers are able to fill them. last week, we saw a record share of small businesses report unfilled positions. employers are often raising wages to try to attract more candidates for these positions. my colleagues actually had a

nice piece out today about that. for instance, they cited a florida resort owner who increased the starting pay of dishwashers by 2-3 dollars recently with the hope of attracting more applicants. romaine: you would hope to see that show up in the overall wage numbers here. he walk around the streets and you see signs up everywhere advertising for workers. i am curious, when we talk about the uptick in job postings, are we sort of back to a level with regards to those postings that will bring us back to an employment level that rivals what we had pre-pandemic? reade: job openings themselves are higher than they were pre-pandemic. there are unemployed people vying for those positions. we still have quite a ways to go when it comes to getting back to

our pre-pandemic norm. job openings themselves are at about 7.4 million right now. if we think about how many positions we are still down in terms of looking at payroll, we are still down over eight in. so, we are still a ways away from a full recovery. joe: you mentioned this is actually february numbers. we already got the march nonfarm payroll report last week. the expectation is still that for as good as these numbers are, it is just a case of what we will get this summer according to economists. reade: exactly. economists are expecting, when we saw the march data last week, it was really broad-based themed. while the job opening data was relatively concentrated in terms of where the strength was, economists are really expecting for this job growth to

accelerate in the summer months, as people head back to jobs at restaurants and hotels, but as the whole economy stirs back to life and business restrictions ease and vaccinations increase. caroline: all eyes on the future data. we thank you. coming up, while powell's push for full employment will have wall street looking to forecast likely numbers such as black unemployment rates. more on the shift that could help speed economic recovery. much more inclusive labor data focus. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: today, we are focused on the labor market. joe and i were just talking about what is going on. a lot focuses on the federal reserve. what jay powell will do next. i story on the terminal sand wall street will try their hand at forecasting new variables. joe: i think been aware for a long time that there is this huge gap between white unemployment, black unemployment, different races. i don't think that has ever really coming as a factor to help people calculate the fed's reaction function. for the fed saying they want low unemployment for everyone, suddenly wall street is starting to realize that these alternative sub measures of the unemployment rate, it is important for them to forecast

as well. caroline: it is something jay powell has been talking about for months now. even prior to the pandemic, they wanted the economy to run out. he was glad we were seeing parts of the economy that had not been touched starting to rise. wanting to see that stimulus, all both rising when we see the economy return closer to normal. joe: joining us, bluebird reporter matt bosler. the disparate unemployment rate among different races in the country has been well-known for a long time. with this new fed approach, flesh starting to realize it is actually like a market question as well. matt: i have been doing this for eight or nine years now and we are used to reading up on the latest forecast for gdp, unemployment, inflation. this is really the first time i

have seen an example of someone writing down a forecast for something like black unemployment. it underscores the power that the fed has here to shift the focus. when you have so much money riding on every interest rate decision that the fed makes on wall street, it really kind of brings into focus the things that people need to be working on in order to follow along with the fed. that is what we see going on here. romaine: it is interesting because we are kind of at the stage now where it does seem like the market is starting to get the message on this issue here. do they have any real defined parameters with regards to what the fed is going to use. or completely creating their own model? matt: so far, we have not heard much from the fed, incorporating these variables into their interest rate decisions. it is kind of an open question.

the goldman sachs report that we highlighted in our story today, kind of the first example we have seen. the interesting thing about it is the sort of method that goldman used to calculate this forecast for black unemployment, it is not very hard to do. they were just looking at the historical relationships between the overall unemployment rate and black unemployment, kind of looking at how that will look going forward if the unemployment rate does what they expect it to do. this is something that the fed could potentially do more on, kind of put out their own forecast, tell the market what they are thinking about what is going to happen. that could kind of help align the market or the fed a little bit better than they are now. caroline: real, broad-based inclusion, you need broader participation as well. how are they looking at those numbers? matt: some of the other

indicators that powell has mentioned recently in terms of some of these more disadvantaged groups, for example, on participation, instead of looking at the overall labor force participation rate, homing in on the rate for people without college education. that obviously falls faster and is slower to recover in downturns. another really interesting one is looking at wage growth for the bottom quartile of workers by wage level. what we tend to see at least in recent expansions is that toward the end of expansions at the labor market gets increasingly tight, wage growth for that bottom quartile starts growing faster than overall wage growth. that underscores the types of things that the fed ideally wants to be seeing to declare victory on their full employment

goals. joe: after the jobs report last week which looked very strong, and market pricing started to anticipate that we could get a rate hike as soon as 2022. now, goldman is saying that based on their expensive read of the fed's goals and where they see black on employment going, not to expect a rate hike until 2024. do you think the market has insufficiently appreciated the fed's basically rethinking of what constitutes employment goals? matt: i think you have to ask that question. if the market is at 2022 right now, the fed is saying now until 2024. coleman is saying that until 2024 but if they take this inclusive employment thing seriously, maybe not until the end of 2025. it comes down to not uncertainty about what happens in the economy so much as uncertainty

about what the fed is going to do. that kind of really underscores the opportunity here if they want to take it, to further clarify what they are trying to do with it. and kind of tamp things down a little bit. romaine: let's just say if they work some sort of economic shock or financial market shock here. the fed still has enough flexibility where it can kind of abandon that goal or at least push it out to the future. matt: right. and we potentially get back to this question of weighing the two mandates against each other. that is not really the environment we have been in over the last 10, 20 years. we have really not had that tension where inflation has gotten i and we have the question, the employment side of the mandate. do we see some scenario like that in the future, or is the

thing we are supposed to be expecting the last 20 years being the most likely outcome with not much tension between those two things? caroline: brilliant deep dive, we appreciate you taking us through some of that analysis. coming up, we will be switching gears kind of entirely and talking crypto. of course, joe weisenthal taking to twitter where he is pretty well known, showing his skepticism over a new settlement system for crypto. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: out last week of

course was the news that visa is set to allow its payment network to be used with a stable coin backed by the u.s. dollar. the latest signal that blockchain technology is gaining more acceptance in the established financial system. we also have got to be looking towards what could be a public listed company, a gateway perhaps for investors to be getting into the crypto space. romaine: we are waiting on that coinbase ipo. a preview with what to expect. they talked about trading volumes being high, transaction volumes, revenue continuing to grow. at the end of the day, this is less about the individual companies or coins. it is about the dramatic shift in market sentiment or market structure. joe: incredible numbers put up by coinbase. meanwhile, i have to play the role of the citic and the skeptic because, why not? caroline mentioned the visa

news. i have to admit, when it came out, i was like this is not going to go anywhere. i even tweeted as such. i said, i strongly believe this is going nowhere. i will make a bed with someone. -- i will make a b with someone. crypto, especially because it goes up. even if you did, it is a terrible way to make payments because blockchain's are fundamentally inefficient for a payments network. what am i getting wrong? diogo: i definitely will take the other side of that bet. the way i will do it is by zooming out a little bit and saying, number one, not all crypto is bitcoin. you right, bitcoin has been invested as capital fluctuation

store of value. as the value fluctuates, people are hesitant to sell their bitcoin for fiat. just over the past 24 hours come over $160 billion of stable coins transacted. there is a type of crypto called stable coins, which track other currencies like the u.s. dollar, and it is perfect to be transacted. if you go back to the partnership with visa, but we are seeing is a dramatic change in the market structure. there are crypto companies that want to offer banking services without ever having to rely on the fiat. with this, they can actually replace the settlement size from the crypto company that is issuing a visa credential all the way to visa without ever having to touch fiat. that is what is being announced. there is a change in the market structure.

it is really something that has to do with stable coins, allowing them to change the market structure. in this case, the payment system in the united states. caroline: so instead of using a u.s. dollar, use usdc instead, this so called stable coin aligned with the value of the u.s. dollar. why pick usdc? will there be other stable coins that end up becoming part of the payment networks? diogo: that is right. the usdc is not the largest stable coin. that represents a small percentage. we saw the announcement of a project which anchorage is a part of, which is also the goal, something that is stable and easy to use. if we say, what is the current status quo of someone who wishes to have a visa credential, there are hundreds of companies issuing these visa credit card

or debit cards that have backing of normal dollars. what is happening is that companies like crypto.com have a lot of interest from their client base to have crypto back the visa card purchases. you can buy a coffee using crypto, it is just not doing it with bitcoin. you are tapping your visa card and on the backend, everything is being taken care of. before, they needed a relationship with an issuing bank. they needed fiat, dollars. a bank account just sitting there so they could settle with visa 24 hours later. now, they don't need that. they can settle in a matter of minutes. the transaction is irrecoverable in the sense that there is no drawback, it has strong finality. using the anchorage crypto files. that is what we are offering. romaine: i can see how those

folks who have bought into the crypto, blockchain world would definitely see the advantage. but how do you approach i guess regular people who are still tethered to fiat currency. which is like 99% of the world. what is the value proposition for them to say, let me do this using my visa-linked card as opposed to just using my visa-linked card with actual dollars? diogo: that is the beauty of this. retail clients, you and i, continue operating in the same way. we can connect our visa card to our accounts, our crypto account at crypto.com, for example, in this case. the first company participating in this pilot. they are spending their money. they don't actually care at the end of the day. if you have an app on your phone, on one side it says usd,

on the other cited says usdc, for you as a consumer, they are both dollars. if you start being able to spend it equally, that is an example of mass adoption of crypto by consumers. caroline: is visa betting on mass adoption or crypto, or is it more wanting to show that everyone, evenly on banked, even those in -- diogo: i think this particular partnership does not even relying mass adoption. we are working in a fiat world, a lot of issues in the past months in the structure of the markets. if you can eliminate those structures, more finality on the settlement, why not take that?

regardless for now, the moment of the consumer adoption, if you have a way through crypto to make the market structure better, why not do it? using crypto for this specific segment, making the marketing for structure better. caroline: diogo monica, thank you. anchorage cofounder and president taking on the others of joe's bed. joe: -- of joe's bet. joe: we will be back. maybe in a year, round two. caroline: are you looking at nft's overnight? joe: got to. i think they are down. romaine: what is your next troll on twitter? joe: i don't troll. i'm going to look at the bitcoin spread. trading at a huge premium in

korea. caroline: that does it from "what'd you miss?" romaine: this is bloomberg. ♪

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