tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg April 6, 2021 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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we'll give you a super easy refund. we'll even cover the return shipping. this is a limited time offer, so go to aerotrainer.com to get the body you want with aerotrainer. haidi: very good morning and welcome to daybreak australia. we are counting down to asia's major market owner opens -- major market opens. shery: i'm sherry on. haidi: the top stories is our, credit takes into that's takes a hit from the fiasco. at u.s. stocks on the slowest trading day of 2021.
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investors grapple with wild rotations awaiting the start of the earnings season. and, analysts see the new galaxy s 21 line-up boosting first quarter earnings. shery: this is the picture and wall street, u.s. futures holding steady. we have the s&p 500 down a 10th of a percent, offsetting some of the gains in retailers. we also have philadelphia semiconductor index falling to a one-week low. the dollar also weaker. we have the bloomberg dollar index and a two week low. oil right now, reinforcing some of the games we saw in the new york session. reported by a wider economic outlook which protected the best global growth in four decades. haidi: we are looking like were
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setting up for a steady start to asian trading. sydney futures looking mildly positive. the announcement of the travel bubble later with new zealand. we are seeing changes at the moment, negative territory down about a 10th of a percent. going into an all-important samsung earnings number, up a quarter of 1%. 10 year yield holding steady. see weakness in the pandemic recovery. let's get back to the top story, trent suisse has -- credit suisse has emerged as the big loser in the archegos breakdown.
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forcing top executives out the door. we have been following these develop and closely, let's start with full details on how they made changes which we have been reporting yesterday now being confirmed by the bank. >> yeah, a staggering hit in that it is the largest loss of all involved in the implosion of archegos capital. as mentioned, this will force its dividends and suspend all share buybacks. bloomberg had been some -- that bloomberg had been reporting. anticipated departures are significant. the investment bank head and the chief risk officer are leaving. they are among more than a half-dozen executives, many tied to the banks risk management decision-making. they are to be replaced.
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credit suisse was far from the only bank that allowed the family office to take huge leverage positions that resulted in those large block trades. beginning one week ago on friday. the ceo says he has, in the bank will be learning serious lessons from that in a statement that was released, he turned the archegos as unacceptable. indeed, many analysts have been questioning the risk management and whether this raises the issue of a systemic problem. shery: this coming a time when investment banks of the doing really well because of market activity and dealmaking. how does credit suisse's loss because of archegos compared to rivals? >> you can see the credit suisse did indeed miss out on the rally
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that so many rivals enjoyed but it is also taking a loss that wipes out its profit. if you look at how it is stacked up against its rivals in terms of losses, again, many analysts asking questions why goldman sachs managed to escape their exposure with immaterial, virtually no material effect. well credit suisse is taking on the largest hit, the closest to credit suisse. reported an essential to billion-dollar loss. now, we have a timeline of what many are calling missteps, poor risk related decisions that credit suisse has made. you will see that archegos is at the bottom of the recent timeline. in a loss and exposure to another collapse earlier in march, that has yet to be addressed. credit suisse is saying they will be coming out shortly with
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news of their losses. again, this is going to put a real pressure on the opportunities, both business and profit wised for credit suisse going forward in the near term. shery: the latest on archegos. our next guessing this is not the only risk out there, there are more market risks. other than archegos. sarah hunt joins us now. always great having you with us, this of course coming at a time when we see a huge rally across the market. so, when you have such big unknowns that can have these huge repercussions, big banks like credit suisse, have you had to get this? >> i think the most difficult thing is in a situation like this, you clearly have a problem where you don't know how many other places are doing something similar. so, every time you have had some
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sort of financial crisis or concern about a crisis from market activity, the question is is archegos doing this, are there others that were doing this with a similar leverage issue going on that we are not aware of? viacom stock moves higher. why is it moving so much higher than everything else? then it was, that fall, that is very difficult to guard against. to the extent that you can now look at the top of the shareholder list and say how concentrated those positions, that is a partial way of looking at it. it is difficult to figure out where this was. then, they are levers against one another. that is difficult to gain hats on. shery: does it make it more risky that we seem to be priced for perfection in the equity market? we are showing the huge rally, not just in the level of games,
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also how broad it has been. these are more stocks above the 200 and moving average. >> i think that is also very much a consequence of the fact that central banks continue to keep it low. i think that is also why you have stocks priced somewhat, an economic backdrop that looks like it could be supportive. it was difficult to figure out who was going to come out of that. you are clearly pricing in the u.s., a much better economic situation going forward as we get out of the pandemic. vaccinations keep people from getting sick, can we open up, you have now such a year, i think the market is looking for that better scenario.
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just on a year-over-year date alone, it will be better. going into this pandemic with everything shut down so suddenly. haidi: how much of this is a goldilocks situation where you have strong data, recoveries on vaccination being rolled out. being pretty well controlled. is this all resting on expecting this to continue to play along? >> not only expecting the fed but all of the central banks. if you had higher interest rates for example, that would be a big problem. you have two things going on, low interest rates to the stimulus the economy. low interest rates as countries across the globe increasing debt levels. i would argue that to normalize interest rates, expected before
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the original finance crisis in 2009. i think central banks almost have to keep rates lower, than you would think historically. on the other hand, those rates being so low for so long, to the extent that multiples have expanded because money is looking for a home, not necessarily because the backdrop is fantastic. especially if you expect things to get better, and trajectories of earnings are not expected to be high. this year, you can see a lot of snapback. the question is what happens in 2022. haidi: do you keep it dry in the portfolio? how do you manage those risks? >> i would say we tend to have some cash on hand for our private portfolio. when i say some, i don't need a time. in some cases you get a great opportunity. for our headphones, we are
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invested. we are trying to find places where we don't think there is as much that the market has had in the last couple of years. some step talks -- some tech stocks with incredible performance, green energy stocks, areas of the market they got frothy at the end of last year. what we are looking for are things where we have some valuation underpinning. to the extent that we have expected valuation to be helpful for stocks, it wasn't when the market went down. i would hope going forward you would see some of those stocks get better in a choppy or environment going forward. shery: sarah, great to have you with us. sarah hunt, let's get you to vonnie quinn in new york with the headlines. >> the former prime minister is said to be some of the wealthy middle eastern investors and poster credit suisse.
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sources say, he invested about $200 million in the fund they got loans from green so last month. it is unclear how much. the economy is projected to grow at historically high level of 12 and a half percent this fiscal year. the chief economist's warning that the trend of covid cases is concerning. indian saleh -- india saw a record, it has halted all nonessential services and ordered companies to work from home. britain is holding off on planning for holidays and summer. an airline industry desperate to get back in the sky, shops will reopen next week. british prime minister boris johnson says it is not yet clear that nonessential international travel can resume safely as planned.
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president joe biden formally announced that all americans over the age of 18 will be eligible for a coronavirus vaccine by april 19. biden spoke with the white house -- spoke at the white house, warning the u.s. is still in a life and death rates against the virus. he also warned that following this progress, new variants are spreading quickly. >> there is a lot of good news, also some bad news. new variants of the virus are spreading. they are moving quickly. cases are going back up. hospitalizations are no longer declining. deaths are still down. way down from january, they are going up in some places. >> global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on bloomberg quick take, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: still ahead, the vaccine
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haidi: some good news from the international monetary fund as a boost at the highest in 40 years. let's bring out global economics policy kathleen, this is the second boost in the second boost in the imf global forecast in three months. the u.s. is leading the way. what are the drivers? >> but start with the good news because yet to go back to the 80's when the data series first
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started. it hasn't been a stronger one since then. what they are looking at is the fiscal support in a few big economies. definitely some of the richer neighbors have been able to do that. they're expecting to have a vaccine driven recovery the second half of the year. look at those numbers, you see if you go back to 2008, how weak growth was. you can see the big setback of last year. now, global growth is expected to be 6% this year. 4.4% in 2022. what is interesting in january, 6% was about 5.2. back in october, the forecast growth of three point 1%. now, more than double because of the strong factors. importantly, the imf is accounting for much of this improvement. here's what they said in the world economic report. at one .9 trillion, the biden administration's new package is
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expected to deliver a strong boost of growth in the u.s.. it provides sizable spillovers, this too is important. all of this money being spent helping the entire world pick up. listen to some of the individual country forecast, this will drive the point of what the u.s. is playing. now, the u.s. is seen at 6.4% this year. the original forecast, 3.1 percent. more than double, that is how important it is. china has moved up a bit, 8.4, not as big of a change. japan, a small move up. india, 11 and a half percent. they'll help. with the euro area, they see 4.4% from 4.2%. emerging market, six .7%. a lot of uncertainty, emerging markets are suffering more. they're not seeing emerging markets in developing nations returned to pre-pandemic levels
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since about 2023. -- until about 2023. shery: which is why it is so important this discussion going on. >> absolutely. we talked to a chief economist of the world bank last night. they say, the imf, that the fdr's are going to help boost global liquidity. that is very important because we see it stretched in some places. help poor nations handle the debt they have taken on despite the pandemic. and to pay for health care costs and more. here's the chief economists from the imf on bloomberg earlier today. >> it would be a strong signal of global confidence. and, in these highly uncertain times will be still have the pandemic, it would help all countries be an essay for position with additional results. there is a lot more to be done
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but this would be a good beginning. >> one more thing, the instability report is warning about excessive risks taking contributed to financial vulnerability. another reason why they have helped these poor nations pay for their debt, a very important step. shery: kathleen hayes there. still to come, samsung is expecting a windfall from its galaxy s 21. but, ages big tech stocks are underperforming the market. we'll get more analysis. this is bloomberg. ♪
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now we are in position of a meaningful shortage. >> over the past year, it has been difficult to know what direction demand was going to go in. >> our ability to meet demand is outpaced by supply availability. there is not a single industry that has not been impacted by this shortage. i'm automotive to ifp to homes. haidi: bank executives discussing the global trip shortage. bloomberg technology speaks to business leaders about their plans and a special show, chip crunch, they will air act 5:00 in new york. shery: that demand for chips really giving samsung a boost. of course, we have seen samsung rally recently and now we are expecting first-quarter earnings to come out. we are watching very closely this morning, at a time when we have seen the valuation of samsung stock surge during the
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pandemic. when we have more people asking for electronics at home. chip demand given the work from home situation during the pandemic. some people saying, perhaps, given how big samsung is, as part of it, you can see the evaluations also rising with samsung perhaps not being reflective of the broader and different parts of the korean market. take a look at this chart as well, we show you, samsung's business rising during the pandemic. although, in the fourth quarter, they missed analyst estimates and warmed -- and warned that profitability could lag in the first quarter. they were hit by fluctuations, not to mention a weaker chip demand in the chip business. haidi: samsung's results will be a litmus test, as always, for global demand for chips. that report will also be key to addressing ongoing chip shortages.
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ian, we are watching all possible samsung business. in particular when it comes to supply constraints. we are looking at stretching to 16 weeks now. is the bottleneck not ending? >> that is a very generic industry. it varies depending on which sector you are talking to. samsung's tif business is primarily memory. there are two types of memory. the market for that is pretty good right now, demand is strong. strong pricing for those products. the other part of memory, the storage in your phone, that market is already switching from being undersupplied to possibly being oversupplied. the third part of the chip business is making chips
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basically for other customers. that business is obvious he very strong. demand in general for that, one of the problem samsung had with its plans. shery: any expectations on samsung demand given the galaxy s 21 launch? >> that is a major part of their business. as we have slowly began to come out of the pandemic, people have gathered say i need a new phone, very strong in the android market. so, things are working in terms of the expectations for a strong quarter. particularly for the galaxy, the s 21.
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shery: technology reporter ian king. will get immediate reactions later this morning. now, here's a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. bloomberg learned that cvc capital partners is considering acquiring to shiva, possibly at a 30% premium over its current share price. make a news reports that cvc is closing a deal, more than $25 billion. bloomberg learned audio-based social network clubhouse is reportedly in talks to raise funding from investors and around values it about $4 billion. that would quadruple in value from january. clubhouse already has posted some of the biggest names in business in hollywood. coming up next, president biden
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pain and stress is the only thing you have to lose. get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. >> you're watching daybreak australian, and vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. international monetary funds has upgraded a growth forecast for the second time three months. a warning about rising inequality and diversions between demands and less than developed economies. global economies are expected to expand 6% this year. that would be the most in four decades. it comes after a contraction of 3.3% last year. amazon's jeff bezos says he is supportive of president biden's
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approach to help pay for a massive infrastructure bill. he stopped short of endorsing the presidents proposal. this in a statement posted on amazon's corporate blog site. amazon was cut off in the infrastructure after biting cited amazon as a company that did not pay any income tax. arent says -- haram says it's nuclear deal, it demands that the u.s. remove all sanctions for any real progress. they rejected the u.s. releasing $1 billion in frozen oil revenues. aransas -- haram's legal -- around lead negotiator is sent to me again on friday. vladimir putin is set to take part in a climate summit organized by joe biden this month. the kremlin is working on an
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address to the virtual event. and when mark putin's first public engagement with biden. last month, bided agreed and a tv interview that putin is a killer. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on bloomberg quick take, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: time now for morning calls. i am watching today u.s. treasuries, 10 year yield fell below the 170 level. i am jean now saying yields could hit to a half percent by year end. the bank says yields look incredibly tame given next -- given data. expecting the gdp to grow by 10% in 2021. that also assumes inflation will reach three to 4% this year. haidi: i am taking a look at the ozzie dollar. it is likely cap for now at
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0.77. i should say at the 77 set handle due to the recovery. also expecting a. of softer data with the expiration of the job keeper program. it does not expect to return to around the $.80 level until the third quarter. president biden announced all americans over the age of 18 will be eligible for coronavirus vaccine by april 19. he spoke at the white house on the state of vaccination efforts in the country, warning that the u.s. is still an eight life and death race against the virus. he warned that while there is progress, their new variants spreading quickly. >> there is a lot of good news but there is also bad news. new variants of the virus are spreading and they are moving quickly. cases are going back up. hospitalizations are no longer
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declining. deaths are still down, way down from january, they are going up in some places. haidi: for more we are joined by an associate scientist from the john hopkins bloomberg school of public health. always great to have you here with us. it is encouraging to see these numbers, encouraging to see vaccinations being opened at essentially to the entire country very quickly. how problematic are these variants in the goal of reaching hurt immunity? >> think you're having me. it is a new virus, part of it is we have to track the variants to understand infectivity. hominid people get affected by a variant. how many other people it affects. the problem we know is they are more infectious, meaning they are simply going to be transmitted to more people than the original strain. haidi: do you see a sense of
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complacency taking place? the pictures coming out of the u.s., i have to say are pretty remarkable in terms of the crowds, lots of people not wearing masks or social distancing anymore because they have been vaccinated. is that going to be a problem for the outbreak? >> is going to be a huge challenge. one thing from a messaging perspective that we have been trying to convey is that even if you have been fax it in, it is important to continue to social distance, to wear a mask, stay at home is much as possible. that is because we don't have enough of a portion of the population in the u.s. vaccinated against the disease. there will be a little more eads with regard to the stricture and but we are not there yet. as you just mentioned, people have been home for over a year now. people are ready to get back to their quote unquote normal lives. so individuals are really rushing to get out. also coinciding with lifting the
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mask mandates. another issue in regards to increase in affection. shery: we are politicizing the concept of vaccine passports. is that going to increase hesitancy? >> we have seen changes in hesitancy over time. if you look at when it first started in march, there was a discussion of a vaccine as a product for covid. we have seen hesitancy increase over time and once the vaccine started rolling out, more people were taking at than we thought. however, one thing i will know is we still have clusters of individuals that do not want to vaccinate and don't feel comfortable vaccinating. there individuals across all age demographics. we are also seeing hesitancy around health care workers.
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shery: how do you overcome hesitancy? especially since we are a long way from hurt immunity. >> that is a great question, there are a few things we can focus on. understanding that people are going to have questions and concerns. really communicating with people, being empathetic they are living in a time of uncertainty for a long time. that is number one. the second thing we have been doing is communicating very clearly how the trials were rolled out. a lot of people may not be aware of the populations in the toe trials, not only from a racial perspective but an age perspective. approver the united states, they are affected. a third thing is making sure we are working hand-in-hand, over the last year trusted public
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health, not public health authority, individuals that work at state health departments, i think that has declined and weighed over time. that has to do with the lot of management of communication related to nonpharmaceutical intervention. as well as the vaccine development process. this is a time for us to be very strong, partners we have better community partners, they might not be in the medical field, we need to work with them hand-in-hand to communicate to populations about the safe and effectiveness that we currently have. haidi: we have also just heard that the university of oxford and astrazeneca are holding children studies with the vaccine in kids. are they the last vexed -- the last frontier that needs to be vaccinated before return to normal? >> absolutely. we know kids are exposed. they are exposed to adults,
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whether contacts in their households or at school. the issue is the more people we can protect, the harder it will be for the virus to replicate. kids are part of that solution moving forward. however, with that said, the clinical trials essentially use something called the affiliation where they continued to bring the number down with regards to eligibility to really make sure that safety and efficacy is in the younger populations. one thing that could happen is that if individuals could continue to adhere to these nonpharmaceutical interventions such as being home in social distancing and wearing a mask, we might not need to have kids vaccinated. that is not the case here. getting vaccines into shoulders, a vaccine that is safe and effective is going to be crucial if you want to go back to normal. shery: how would you rate this administrations messaging and consistency when it comes to vaccines and the virus as opposed to the previous government. >> this is a dynamic situation,
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i will say this is a challenging situation regardless. it is important to understand that you have to be transparent about what is happening, what has happened and what they plan to do in the future. that is one way to build trust. i think that the previous administration, because there are a lot of challenges with regards to the white house in conflict with the cdc, has a lot of issues from a communication perspective as well as a trust perspective. this administration has been more transparent with regards to talking about the goals of 150 million shots in 75 days, 200 million by the hundred day in office. they are goals that this administration has articulated well. that helps americans get a sense of what is happening in this pandemic. and the focus of what this administration is doing. the key is coming from the state
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health department. because as you know, the allocation and distribution of the vaccine in the united states is on a state-by-state level. where we really need that transparency is the state level. individuals in those states are clear as to where they can go, how much is it going to cost them and who can they go to that they have additional questions? haidi: at the same time, we are seeing countries that manage the virus welcome fall behind when it comes to vaccination. hong kong is much is 40% hesitancy in australia, perhaps because we haven't has much of the virus. given how globalize the world was before the pandemic, is it a public health risk from the vaccine rollout? >> some of it is diseases and infectious diseases do not
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respect borders. in the end, we are going to continue to need global cooperation and coordination. if we do want to eradicate the pandemic we are currently in. that includes countries that have had such low rates of the virus itself and don't really feel like it is an issue. that has to do with risks, people don't think they are perceptible because they haven't seen it in the country. i think to your point, if you want to continue to go back to a global economy where we are traveling, people are getting on airplanes halfway around the world, we are going to need some global coordination to control and mitigate the effects of the virus. shery: it was great having your insights. associate scientist at the john hopkins bloomberg school of public health which is supported by michael bloomberg, the founder of lou burke lp. haidi: travelers and australia and new zealand are
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looking forward to april 19 when the travel bubble will open. >> this is an important step forward in our covid response and an arrangement i do not believe we have seen any part of the world, safely opening up international travel to another country while continuing to pursue a strategy of elimination and a commitment to keeping the virus out. haidi: not just new zealand but holidays and other asian destinations may also open to australians by august. they're hoping -- they are looking to open with more countries. officials exploring plans. shery: and the european union, officials have approved a $4.7 million rescue plan for air france, from the french government. you will see france reemerge as the airline's biggest investor. the ceo spoke exclusively to bloomberg about the plans.
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>> we have a number of elements we have to face. quite a few that have already started. we have been working and have made some very good progress. there is an agreement with the air france pilots to enable our low-cost unit to operate in the french market. which is a big change. the poorest performing market, that is excellent news. we have many other elements, the first airlines that make it efficient. and we have many other simplification process, overall it is the evolution of many
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union agreements. complex agreements we have. haidi: the commission has asked to abandon switch roots. fewer questions in french. you can write in any question you want, where will the cost cutting come from from now, is it somewhere else? >> we have been going through transformation plans. both major companies sometimes, it is an acceleration. a simple location. a major overhaul of the complex union agreement that we have. at air france. we do have 17 unions at air france, a very complex structure, a lot of progress.
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shery: u.s. treasury sec. janet yellen says financial institutions will be encouraged to align their portfolios and strategy when the paris agreements, limiting global warming. they also link tax policy with climate related objectives. >> president biden is focused on the u.s. climate agenda. he is going to be proposing a package of infrastructure and climate change investments. shery: an exclusive interview with bloomberg, u.s. environmental protection agency administrator michael regan also said that the environmental protection can actually coexist. >> i believe that is a false option to choose between economic development and prosperity and environmental protection. i don't believe we have to sacrifice anyone sitting at the
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table, nor do i believe we have to sacrifice jobs. i think the president is proving that. shery: chris, explain to us with secretary yellen is trying to do here. >> she laid out a number of ideas about what the biden administration wishes to pursue with the goal of climate change. they are very enthusiastic about getting back on the global stage. putting the trump isolationism behind the u.s., becoming much more engaged with the historic allies. at this point, financial regulation is a contentious one. the background is that the biden administration wants to push the financial sector into being much more prepared for the risks associated with climate change. and is not very controversial,
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so far with things like operational resiliency, normal physical preparation to make sure business is not going to be disrupted by aspects of climate change. republican lawmakers have started to make a lot of fuss is where they are worried this is going to morph into a regulatory overreach. where rulemaking bodies like the federal reserve or the sec began to tell banks or investment companies how they can go about doing business. they should lend to. those businesses, those clients engaged in. haidi: she also said the administration would encourage financial institutions, to align
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their portfolios and strategies with the objective of the paris agreement. given what we saw under the trump administration, a push to try and dam wall street banks from doing business on environmental concerns. where are the battle lines now on this issue? >> that quote you just read is a really important one. it suggests that the biden administration is interested in going quite a bit beyond pushing for operational preparedness. that will set off some alarm bells. i have to say, there is a lack of clarity with that statement, what means in practice as part of the problem is do they want to just encourage financial firms to look at their portfolios from a rich management point of view? and take seriously climate change risks? or, are they suggesting there
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will be rulemaking coming down the road that are active in terms of lending or investment activities of financial firms. that is the kind of thing that would set of people like patrick toomey, the republican senator from pennsylvania. he has been very animated about warning that regulators should not be advancing when he caused a progressive social agenda on climate change. i think we can be sure that until the biden administration is much more precise about what it intends to do here, that republicans will continue to make a fuss about this. haidi: be sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the big newsmakers. we are now broadcasting live from a studio in hong kong. you can listen in the app, or online. this is bloomberg. ♪
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million doses. the eu has denied blocking any new exports to australia. there will be getting services and deposit numbers in a few minutes time. watching out for calling on the federal government to offer incentives to promote areas of the country. the workforce has started to chaos. shery: now we get a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. facebook has removed 14 networks of more than 1000 big accounts seeking to sway politics around the world, including in iran, albania and el salvador. they also -- most networks were in the early stages of building audience. this is one of the larger crackdowns in recent months. indian e-commerce giant aiming for a fourth-quarter ipo. the company which is controlled by walmart has set up an
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internal ipo team and is leaning towards a traditional debut in the u.s.. this is after exploring a possible blacklisting of the start of. a could cost $35 billion. of course, we are watching very closely, the outcome of the election. we are potentially seeing a shakeup when it comes to the party. he is facing a tough battle when comes to the election. a lot of it has to do with a huge amount when it comes to property prices. shery: this was an issue more than a decade ago when i was living in korea. it has not gotten any better. we're talking about property prices doubling in the past five years. those are some of the big issues, we are also focusing on women's rights given that they stalled and left those seats
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haidi: a very good morning, i'm heidi stroud in sydney. we are counting down to the major market opens. shery: our top stories this hour, samsung is expected to get a big boost when it reports at of the market open. it is helping phone sales can offset weak results in semiconductors. to shiva could be set to go private, cbc capital and set to
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