full body results like total gym. and right now you can try it risk free and enjoy special savings too! get on demand workouts free, free shipping and more. call now! >> we thought this might be a negative quarter, the first quarter might be a negative quarter for the u.s. economy. that is clearly not going to be the case. >> the u.s. is back on track, the problem is it's not quite as large as it used to be. >> the gap between those doing well and those struggling is growing through the day. >> as the market rallies we are seeing volatility climb again. >> we are shifting to the commercial side. that has great power. that could make 2023 and even better year than 2022.

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: american optimism faces off with fear of the fed. this is bloomberg surveillance. tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro will be back tomorrow. on a well-deserved break. he will not be necessarily quarantining because he will definitely want to avoid more discussion from you, tom. tom: we will see if he has to go through quarantine. if he does he will be remote. wrapped around all this, as you just heard from robert albertson, to me it is the quiet message of this early week. we are starting to see people extend out from 2021 to 2022 analysis. he was talking about 2023 as a continued good economy. lisa: it is also jamie dimon, the momentum going out a couple of years on the heels of u.s.

spending. this goes to the ultimate point. at what point does the fed have to recognize inflation and growth and hike rates sooner than they said? the fed is continuing to reiterate, it won't happen, and that needs to be resolved in the coming months. tom: i feel very strongly about this, central banks by definition are always going to wait until they see the inflation. they are not going to get in front of it like so many talk about in the media. we will just have to see step-by-step out to 2022. the answer is you have to get the unemployment rate below 5%, even under 4%, a fully employed america, before they feel the tension of wage pressures. lisa: you saw the service sector growth has been the fastest pace on record. the stories you have heard from the leisure and travel companies of looking for job applicants and not finding them -- the openings they cannot fill. people having a lot of

power to negotiate for higher salaries and other work conditions. this is a new era of reopening we have never seen before. tom: you saw with the delta airlines folks, three or four days ago they had to cancel flights because they could not get the bodies lined up to go, go, go. futures flat, red and green on the screen. the vix, 17.91. rbc capital markets, she was very prescient about this gap down in the vix to a more compliant -- more complacent market. 1.66 on the 10 year yield. dollar comes in on dxy. euro with 1.1887. oil under $60. we try to summarize all of this. the summary is wrapped around 66

pages of james dimon. we are joined with a wonderful overview on the market. jim, i assume you have not read the 66 pages of mr. dimon. it is wide-ranging. look at one of the quotes from jamie dimon. let's zoom in. i am zoom-free. i'm really pleased to say that. let's look at jamie dimon on zoom. most professionals learn their job through an apprenticeship model, which is almost impossible to replicate in the zoom world. over time that could dramatically undermine character and culture. remote work virtually eliminates spontaneous learning and creativity because you don't run into jim at the coffee machine. there it is, old-school. do you think we return to our offices of old? jim: sort of.

i will push back on that quote a little bit. yes, it is -- human interaction, human contact is important, but not i think in the form jamie dimon is suggesting. 10 hours a day in an office sitting in a little room by yourself working at a computer in a service sector job. i think we will have to rethink what the office is and why we go to the office. we have just shown as an economy we can produce the economy just fine working remotely. i agree we need more human contact. i want nothing more than to go to wrigley field game again, but i recognize maybe i don't need to go to one of those gigantic buildings in the center of a major city and spent 45 to 50 hours a week. there is going to have to be a rethink as to what exactly does the office mean? some people are not there yet as far as having that conversation.

tom: what is a bianco creative destruction and how do you prosper from it? what is your investment strategy? jim: the biggest thing with the boom economy has been all of the stimulus. the mailing of checks we had. we got the savings rate at a 60-year high. we got everyone itching to get out. that's what everyone says now, and i think it's true. when they do, i think we will start to see spending go. that is what everybody said. then we will have to have a real conversation about inflation. it is too early to have that conversation about inflation. dropping off of march and april of last year and seeing the year-over-year numbers go up a lot is literally going to start next week. the checks that we recently mailed out have only been a couple of weeks old. i think as we move forward we will have a conversation about inflation and whether or not we

see it. if we see it it will have to accelerate the fed. if we don't see acceleration it will open the conversation to modern monetary theory and more money being spent at a higher rate than we are already doing now. lisa: what is the nature of the pickup and inflation you're looking for? we have seen inflation of certain key goods. what is the important increase in inflation you need to see to say, this is a sign of something different? jim: i think it's going to be companies are going to raise their prices. we have known now for the past 25 years, if you are a manager of a real company, not a wall street company, and you raise your price of washing machines or sweaters, you are on the second page of a google search pure you don't sell anything you lose market share. everyone has been droned into don't raise your price because of that consequence. if we get to the point where there is a demand that so many people are wanting stuff that we

start seeing prices rerate, and fed speak we have unanchored inflation and we can start to talk about whether or not it is actually here for the first time in a quarter-century. i think that is a real possibility as we move forward, that we could see the un-anchoring of inflation. lisa: we are seeing 10-year yield to go down. they are well down off of their recent highs, which raises the question of if they are underpricing this reality you are talking about. where could 10-year treasury yield's conceivably go if you see the inflationary pressures you're talking about? jim: i think they could go higher. i'm not surprised they are falling because they have had a relentless rise. they have been oversold in terms of prices. we are seeing a correction. i would also argue that when interest rates go up it is bullish or bearish for the stock market. if they are going up because the narrative right now is we are

reopening, we are going to have massive real growth, more earnings, that's fine. interest rates could go up and it won't bother the economy or stock market. if interest rates are going up because of inflation, and that is a loss of purchasing power, your dollar buys less in a year than it does now, that is a problem for the economy and stock market. we will continue to have that debate. in the meantime rates will go higher like they have over the last several months. like they have over the previous seven months. we will continue to have this debate if it is reflation, real growth, or inflation. tom: he tears apart the idea of wages aren't going up. are you seeing wage inflation in chicago? to the point, is that really what's going to happen, a surprise end-of-the-year of finally wage inflation gets back to three-ish percent? jim: it is hard to say whether

or not you are seeing it right now, but that will be the question, whether or not you see wage inflation as we move forward. if you do you might see a bigger, robust job market. a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines. they don't need to go back to work. they have been given stimulus checks, they have been given an extra kicker in unemployment insurance. they are sitting around waiting until that runs out. if we see wage inflation, like you said, it would fast-forward everything, like the fed and thinking in the market. right now it's too early to see we've seen it, but i think that will be the second half of the year question. tom: thank you, go cubs. i think this is the heart of the matter. his essay is extremely strong. it is different parts of the economy. you wonder if there is going to be wage inflation as brian identifies. there has to be someplace where there is not wage inflation.

that is maybe the major focus. lisa: a lot of people were talking about the services sector saying it would come back in speed but there are many people out of work. you are hearing about employers having to sweeten the pot to get employees in the door. how long-lasting is it? is it a flash in the pan event as we deal with the friction of trying to bring an economy back online, or something that has legs? tom: i have the essay on twitter. right now red and green on the screen. futures flat, futures of 30. in the bond market, yields come in over the last three or four days, 1.66% on the 10 here yield . the two year yield 1.25%. we haven't seen much curve dynamic. europe, the euro stronger 1.1884.

he has been absolutely brilliant on pushing aside the fears of inflation. we get an update from the credit suisse chief economist. later, the international monetary fund. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> president joe biden is ramping up pressure on republicans to support his 2.2 trillion dollar infrastructure plan. he is appealing directly to gop voters while lawmakers are in their home districts. at the white house the president will make his second major sales pitch for the plan in a week. he is facing opposition from conservatives and business groups who are against proposed tax hikes. talks in vienna on returning a deal where constructive and diplomats will meet friday. the islamic republic demands the u.s. lifts sanctions for real

progress to be possible. an iranian ship was hit by mines in the red sea according to the new york times. israel says it was responsible. the stage is set for what could be the largest private equity-lead acquisition in years. it has received an additional offer from cvc capital partners. the buyout could be worth $20 billion. the maximum 18% daily limit in tokyo. the market is thinking about more than $2 billion in products from hundreds of black-owned brands by 2025. the discount retailer will help black lenders expand their sales in big-box stores. target is headquartered in minneapolis, the side of the murder trial of the former police officer who killed george floyd. warning signs for morgan stanley on investing in carmakers. the banks analysts says auto investors who do not own tesla stocks risk missing out on an electric car boom.

tesla sales are down 20% since setting a record in january. global news, 24 hours a day on-air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> you could see countries that have very high levels of vulnerability, high foreign-currency borrowing, high dollar barring -- dollar borrowing. it is not like we are seeing any systemic debt crisis. tom: the head of the economic research chief economist at the international monetary fund out with a really divergent set of outlooks in the last 24 hours. i will be speaking with her boss, managing director --, later this morning. that will be a piercing conversation. they are heated about the need for aid for a large part of the world suffering from the pandemic. james dimon drives forward this morning. lisa, 40,000 roughly u.k. employees and a good percentage of them, not a minuscule number, 1200 will make permanent home working. that is a bit of a surprise. lisa: this is the ultimate debate on wall street and

corporate america. it is not just jamie dimon weighing and saying it's important to get back to the office and zoom calls are leading to massive zoom fatigue. blackrock's larry fink coming out saying he cannot wait to get back to in person meetings. he emphasizes the idea of casual conversation being fodder for creativity and innovation. this will be one of the big divides heading into the next era. you are seeing big companies take less office space in the big city centers. tom: she has done something very cool, over 19,000 employees, she has carved out a competency and ability that benefits all. in this case it is on the taxes of the nation. when are my taxes going up? is it a date or is it rhetoric? >> right now it is rhetoric. there is a relatively high

likelihood there could be a tax increase of some sort that goes into effect january 1 of next year. tom: over the years we will see republicans cut tax and democrats raise tax? is there some form of cyclicality or link? laura: this has tax lawyers and tax advisors worried that they cannot plan anything, because whatever the law of the land is today will be overhauled two to four years later. how does the balance of power in washington keep shifting? republicans had unified control, then democrats. the question is if they can hold on after biden's first four years. lisa: the debate seems to be theoretical and faith-based. taxes going up is bad for growth and corporate innovation, or it is good for the nation and pays for programs and will add to growth and help corporations.

these bifurcated ideas, are they backed by facts and studies? what are the studies underpinning the debate today, laura? laura: there's not a ton of data yet about the tax cuts and jobs, how effective it has been. democrats point that there has not been the growth we have expected. we would expect more growth by now. we didn't get the surge in investment. corporate's have largely kept offshore tax structures in place. we need to do something different. that is the argument democrats are making. there is some evidence, but republicans say this has only been three or four years. treasury hasn't finished implementing all this. we need to give this more time. there is maybe a little more data supporting democrats on this, particularly looking forward that there needs to be revenue for investment and that needs to come from somewhere. there isn't enough money to make that happen, so it's likely that taxes of some sort need to go up some point in the future. lisa: there is a question janet

yellen raised a couple of weeks ago saying the easiest way for us to collect more taxes is to crackdown more on the existing rules, to hire more people for the irs come and go after people more. what is the likelihood of that happening in the near term? laura: that is one of the most likely things to happen. both democrats and republicans agree the irs has gotten too lax in its auditing practices largely due to budget cuts. there have been a bunch of studies showing that for every dollar you give the irs they can get an extra three dollars to five dollars of revenue back. the issue is there is only so much unpaid taxes that the irs can collect. there is not to trillion dollars or $3 trillion. there is maybe a couple hundred billion dollars. tom: are we moving to a more progressive system, ever-increasing marginal rates of my childhood? are we going back to that? laura: we are not going to see

-- democrats are proposing rates in the 50% or 60%. the top rate is about 40%. those are counterweights. democrats in the house in particular are saying that if we tinker with the tax code, raise taxes, we want to restore the state and local tax reduction that would make tax less progressive. we could see things moving in one direction and the other direction as well. tom: thank you. bloomberg tax reporter. lisa, all of a sudden the markets move. futures down -29. after it has been quiet, mortgage applications out at 7:00 a.m., i don't see much economic data here, but nevertheless a real drop-down. in the markets. the yield 1.66%. lisa: it is a turn and it is very quiet. yesterday was the slowest day, romain was saying the slowest

day of trading of 2021. to give you a sense of the fatigue from zoom calls or from 12 straight months of working from home with your, to quote you, tom, hellions in tow. what is going to tip the balance? there is a show me the money feel now, a show me the fed message as we wait for the fed speak, there is a question now of where are we going to see the tip of the balance? is it going to be higher, higher inflation or growth? or lower, a retrenchment of some of the expectations we have now? tom: i'm going to go to this. we are in this vacuum, up seven days, jp morgan, the bank earnings, then we get into -- i think we really reset into the third and fourth week of april. i really feel that strongly. lisa: i feel fatigued. not just personally, but pretty

much across the board. home any people say "i need a break." people who haven't taking a vacation because there was no place to go and have been grinding it out. how much of that are we seeing in the markets? people are saying maybe i will take a few days off? tom: i haven't been off since last week. we won't go there. i want to point out something i'm watching out of the corner of my eye. with the calmer tone out of jordan, east of israel, north to turkey where there is a bit of an unraveling. an 8:54 level on lira is my definition of unraveling. we do have a weaker turkish lira over the past two days to 8.19 this morning. for those on the em watch i think those are very careful review. we are green on the screen an hour ago.

now negative four, futures -33, vicks 18.01. -- vix 18.01. stay with us on radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning. bloomberg surveillance. futures deteriorate. we were green but we have just given it back a little bit. dow futures -30. kailey leinz will talk about that in a moment. the yield comes in. 1.66%. important airline headlines. first, kailey leinz. kailey: one hour to go until the opening bell. we have seen futures deteriorate. it is a very fractional move. we have been fluctuating during the entire futures session. as we have seen futures move lower we have seen yields off the lows of the session. now unchanged on the 10 year yield as the dollar gives back a bit of its strength. talk about fluctuation varga session. right now wti is higher.

as for stocks to watch, keep an eye on beyond meat. it is opening a manufacturing center in china. that cherish -- that has shares higher. draftkings is up 1.4%. new york state ready to approve online gambling rules outlined by governor cuomo. tom: i have the red sox in the queue. kailey: if i'd bet money on my march madness that would not have gone well for me. cdc saying cruise lines able to reopen in the spring. i am not sure if you've booked a summer vacation but may a cruise is an option. tom: lisa abramowicz has all of my vacation days. headlines out of chicago, achieving the feds and nation --

the feds inflation may be more difficult. we will talk to james sweeney. what i like about the airlines, the global counters of heads on airlines, if you look forward from may to september. lisa: and how bifurcated that view is. the international airport association director general has been talking about how domestic travel is down 51% in february and going forward from may through september, you will still see traffic down substantially, although picking up. this to me is one of the key questions, the bifurcation between domestic travel and between the u.s. and china where inoculations are going at her than land, or -- are going better than planned or europe, down based on 2019 levels.

delta was heated in his conversation with david westin, saying domestic versus international works out well in 2022. james sweeney joins us with credit suisse. i want to get to the inflation discussion. let's first look at the body count discussion. delta airlines said they are having trouble cutting employees , things are ramping up so fast. how close are we do it tight labor market in america? james: we are close to a labor market where firms are racing to hire more workers in a shortened period, and that is likely to put upward pressure on wages. that is not the same thing as an equilibrium labor market. it is not a low unemployment rate. we will see wage pressure with high unemployment for a while because firms would need to get these people back quick because vaccinations are happening. social distancing is going away. tom: your claim as you put the

inflationistas in the timeout chair. how are those inflationistas doing now? do you agree with them that we have something to worry about. james: i think they're a little excited at the moment and the question is temporary or not. it is not are we going to see increases in prices. we definitely are. the fed is saying we will temporarily see in nation rise but then we be fine. that is ok. if you are in financial markets, it matters how far inflation goes in the next 12 to 18 months. those inflationistas, if they see 2.5% inflation for a while will get excited and extrapolate that into the future and we will have an interesting market moment. the fed make sense when they say

temporary, but understanding what it will be like as we go through this will be very important. lisa: oil prices increasing or decreasing could be temporary. copper, the same thing. wages there is a different dynamic. how frequently have we seen wages go up and subsequently come down because they say this was transitory? james: it is wage growth coming up and coming down, it is not wages falling. before the pandemic there was some evidence that the lower wage part of the labor market and the services sector was being more tight. you are seeing faster wage growth like retail and leisure and hospitality in the years before the pandemic then you had seen in 15 or 20 years. there is something structurally tightening up the labor market. then you have the pandemic and everything is loose again.

then you have vaccines, stimulus at the same time. everyone wants to go on vacation. scrambling to get back the workers. the workers have a little bit of bargaining power. wage growth will be accelerating for some workers for a while, whether that is sustained or whether that turns into persistently higher priced in elation over many years is a very different thing, and something we should not jump to. how much wage growth are we going to see? how much inflation over going to see in the next 12 to 18 months is a critical question for monetary policy, all of these things. lisa: a big aspect fueling some of these concerns or excitement currently is the infrastructure spending plan, the fiscal package passed earlier this year. people talking about the

potential downside for higher or print taxes, higher taxes -- higher corporate taxes, higher taxes on wealthy individuals. how much would higher taxes crimp growth? james: post tax earnings expectations are going to come down as tax rates -- as statutory tax rates go up, particularly if they find a way to make the global minimum tax fine on some firms that are paying much less then statutory rates. that is a stock market. that is a negative for the equities. from a gdp perspective, i do not think we will have so much infrastructure spending from the infrastructure bill we have not passed this year. you are looking at more infrastructure spending, more demand in the economy in 2022, 2023, 2024 it is a brighter

growth outlook. a slightly weaker outlook for earnings. business investment overall is not very correlated with what happens in taxes. taxes change historically plays a very small share in business investment in the short term. tom: can you predict business investment? james: that is a tough one. business investment is one of the most volatile parts of the gdp. when the make fun of economists and say you got gdp wrong, it is usually business investment doing the work. right now interest rates are low. a lot of firms have not invested for a while. have pent up to invest. it is probably the easiest reason to expect stronger investment, and i think investments will pick up the next year.

you have to look at sectors, where will loan prices be, how that affects structured spending. the business investment outlook is bright and i would not expect higher taxes to get in the way. james: what is your highest conviction idea -- lisa: what is your highest conviction idea of this year that goes against consensus? james: the consensus inflation expectation of 2.4%, i think that is a reasonable view. i think after throughout those forecast and look at the distribution of inflation risk. the tail to the upside is fat and long. there are risks that short-term and nation is significantly higher than that in the period from this summer until late 2022. that is not necessarily long-term inflation, but that is something investors need to think about, something that could trigger the fit to hike earlier than they are saying now. focusing on that distribution

and not the point forecast is the key. tom: james sweeney with credit suisse, their chief economist. thank you so much. i cannot convey the mystery of an laois and but the partition of an elation -- the mystery of inflation but the partition of inflation. do we get to deflation? that is part of the mystery of 2022. lisa: the areas that have seen in nation during the pandemic have been discrete -- that have seen inflation during the pandemic have been discrete. we go to the grocery store, we do not throughout the do things with our friends, have not been able to fulfill that purpose. it raises a question of how we measure in laois and. -- how we measure inflation. you had a whole paycheck and you get dog biscuits and they cost $10 each? tom: we are buying the dog biscuits.

that is a different story. food has gone up. i would fold back into real estate, the direct cost of real estate and the implied cost of real estate, which you will see in some of those statistics. michael mckee, little more expert at that than i am. dow futures -43. bond yields driven lower, price up, you'll down, high yield has done the same thing at 3% on the spread. lisa: 2.9%. that is what we are looking at in terms of what investors are demanding to own high-yield bonds. high-yield bonds are yielding the least versus investment great going back to 2007. that spread is compressing. tom: is that a frenzy of buying? james: it is a frenzy -- lisa: is a frenzy of buying and the riskier credit. these companies have pushed out there debt maturity. not that much concerned about

the potential for a downturn. coming up we will continue the conversation on open the open -- on "the open." tony despirito will be joining us to talk about how to navigate within the sphere of american exceptionalism. tom: stay with us on radio and television. futures at negative five. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. the richest person in the world supports investing in u.s. infrastructure and raising taxes to help pay for it. jeff bezos stop shorting at endorsing joe biden's infrastructure plan. in a statement jeff bezos said it will require concession from all side. the u.s. says it will consult with allies on how to handle the 2022 winter olympics in beijing.

part of a potential boycott over china's human rights record. human rights groups urged put committee to hold the beijing games elsewhere. finance minister wants to know what happens with the european union rollout. >> the point which is not on the right track is the european recovery plan. we have not seen a single any among the 750 billion euros that have been decided last summer. i am deeply concerned by the delay in the implementation of the european recovery plan. that is the key point. ritika: money from the eu fund is not scheduled to be handled out until june. jamie dimon built the most profitable bank in u.s. history. now he is warning the industry disruption by technology is at

hand. in his letter to shareholders he says fintech and big tech are here big time and traditional banks are shrinking. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.i am ritika . this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the damage of george floyd was not just the fact we watched

a homicide on camera. it was the fact his name gets added to a much longer lineage of names there has been no accountability or. the platform for progress is the fact we are now having a mature and honest conversation about what it will take for us to move into a better space and a place where we are watching, it is not just oppressed populations demanding justice. that is the power of this moment. tom: westmore -- wes moore of robin hood foundation. this is not robinhood of gamestop fame. this is robinhood of giving away millions of dollars. this is an important interview with mr. moore. david rubenstein joints of carlyle group and his acclaimed peer-to-peer conversations, i believe tonight at 9:00. thank you for doing this interview. wes moore is one of the great

screw ups of all time. he had a difficult childhood. his father died at three years old. finally ended up in military academy and a switch went off at johns hopkins. what did wes moore do when he finally got to johns hopkins? what got him going? david: he decided to turn his life around and became a rhodes scholar at johns hopkins dotted -- got a degree at oxford and decided to give his time to the military and he went to afghanistan as an officer there. serve several years in afghanistan. came back and got involved with a number of other activities but the last four years has been running robinhood. he will until the end of may and then he is planning to run for governor of maryland. tom: this is absolutely extraordinary. this is the kid that turned it around and made good. what has he done at robinhood.

i believe robinhood come every year, gives all the money away. it is a true conduit for charity. david: yes. the financial community puts up all the money for the ministry of cost. all of the donations are given away every year. it is about 400 or $500 billion a year going to the poverty problem in new york city and the environs around new york city. it has been replicated in other parts of the country. robinhood has been the signature anti-poverty action the financial community can claim a good deal of credit for helping to get started. tom: is wes moore electable? david: no african-american has been elected statewide in maryland other than as lieutenant governor on some other governors ticket. maryland is a democratic state

and has a large black population , he would appeal to more than blacks. is a democrat and a lot of people are seeking the nomination. it is too early to say. he is certainly a strong, articulate candidate, no doubt about that. tom: i would love to see a david douma and stein 66 page annual letter. that would be great. jamie dimon out with a letter. he talks about fortitude as being part of leadership. what is the fortitude you have observed from wes moore? david: he has overcome real disadvantages. he was handcuffed by police when he was 11 or 12, sent to military academy. had real challenges as a youth, but then turned it around at john's and and went on to a rhodes scholar ship, and out the age of 43 he has a promising political career ahead of him if he wants to pursue that. i think he well. tom: on this day when jamie dimon writes his annual letter. there's been a lot of talk about

jamie dimon as an appointed or electric political official. can ceos like jamie dimon become politicians in modern america? david: it is tough because now everything you've ever done over 20 years is looked at. it is more complicated to do that as an elected official. maybe as an appointed official it might be easier. tom: what you see on travel, the other great theme we see? mr. dimon was talking about the opening up of america, the international economy much delayed. what does carlyle group observe in the opening up of america as we end this pandemic? david: let me give you my own observation. my observations are people want to go back to their office. maybe not five days a week. people want to travel. maybe not as much as before. vacation travel and leisure travel will come back ahead of business travel. business travel will come back

but probably not at the pace it once was where you would fly around the world. i think that can be done through zoom. i think people have a pent-up desire to go back and meet with other people and see the rest of the world. tom: what is the character of higher yield you see? what do higher yields do to the mindset of ceos? david: higher yields make people a little bit nervous because it means inflation might be around the corner, and we have not had serious inflation for a while. people are worried about modest inflation relative to what we had in the 1970's. i think the economy is in good shape because of the stimulus we have had. with the enormous amount of stimulus it is difficult for the u.s. economy not to grow at 5% or 6%. next year will be good shape as well. we'll probably have some inflation, i do not think it

will be anything close to what we have seen in the 1970's. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciated. congratulations on a spirited interview with wes moore of robinhood. a really unique person. look to that tonight, 9:00 p.m. i want to point out the trade balance right now because it is a pandemic vector of immense distress. it has been linear over the last number of years. very negative. with the gyrations of the pandemic and all, maybe it was -40. it has been not a plunge but it is a straight line down to a shocking -71.1. i do not have in front of me that between deficit nature of this for america, but nevertheless there it is. the distortions of trade and capital flows are tangible in this pandemic, and in this new

divergence we see. on radio i can only tell you it has been a managed negative chart. president trump talking about his distress of a deficit. we have a new ever larger distinction between our exports going out and our massive imports with the american boom economy now coming in. this will be a source of conversation with kristalina georgieva with the imf. i have interviewed her before. this is a time of -- not a tipping point, but a point of divergence for the international monetary fund and their representation of the developed nations, including china, and their assistance with the world bank, the less advantaged countries like zilpah and india where we see real pandemic challenges. look for that at 11:30 this

morning. dow futures at -54. a very quiet screen. i can tell it on the bloomberg terminal. stay with us through the morning on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪

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lisa: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts now. >> coming out of the fed. >> a hotter cycle. >> rate hikes are still not a base case. >> market making new highs in the meantime. >> the low rate environment has fueled a lot of the fire. >> monetary policy has been so accommodative. >> there is so much liquidity in the market. that has played a big role. >> we will get fascinating information later today. >> i'm not sure how it will change this time around. >> the biggest fear on every investors mind. >> what if there is an inflation overshoot? >> inflation big enough to force the fed's hand in raising rates. >> they are going to allow the economy to run hotter. >> markets will be wrestling with policy change.