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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  April 8, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EDT

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>> the covid cyclicals are catching up because of this reopening of the economy. >> we are going to start to see spending go, and then we will have to have a real conversation about inflation. >> the gaps between those performing well and those struggling is growing. >> we are going to see weight pressure with high unemployment for a while. >> as the market rallies, we start to see volatility climb again. that is typically not a great time. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: getting this show back on the rails. good morning. alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity market, all-time highs into thursday's session. tom: it is the way we are up, but it is the way we have been
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at the last couple of days. there has been a seismic shift to the nasdaq leadership. the key for using the bloomberg terminal every afternoon to some that up. if you look at the ratios, it is simple. we are back to mastec leadership. jonathan: nasdaq looking good right now. apple up almost 10% from the lows of a month ago. i just wonder, how connected that is to the stability we have seen in the treasury market. your 10 year in and around 65. tom: underreported, and gabriella santos will address this, the u.s. getting the imf outlook. china with an 8% statistic. is it a boom economy in china? maybe not, but it is a very good economy and that is where you get the tech thing going. jonathan: looking forward to that conversation. also talking about the politics of the u.s.-china relationship and the lack of the ability to unite the parties in d.c. with
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china a focal point around the infrastructure plan. lisa: the question is, how much is actually the focal point? how much is the reason behind -- how much is china the reason behind the initiatives laid out? i expect there will be some breaking up of this infrastructure plan. the key is, how do we get there and what are we going to price in? how much does this rally depend on the infrastructure plan getting passed jonathan: can we just touch on senator manchin in the washington post. it is important we have a senator pushing back against the lack of a bipartisan effort in d.c. tom: he is getting out front on this debate. i'm told this is a nine-month debate, six-month debate. i don't buy it for a minute. in the speed of american politics with the election in november of next year, i think the new six months is three months. jonathan: here is the price
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action this morning. we look like this on the s&p 500. record high. mastec up .8%. we had a little bit more weight, 4082 on the s&p. in the fx market, 200 day moving average on euro-dollar. euro-dollar right now, 11862. wti, 5945. let's finish here. yields come in, stability and treasuries doing ok. jonathan: underpinning that stability is a real? around inflation. this has been the big debate on wall street. a lack of visibility into this era is inflation. perhaps a better sense of the labor part of that component. the u.s. initial jobless claims, the expectation is 680,000, down marginally from last week.
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still high, which raises a question about who is counting what and how accurate these numbers are. the u.s. economy not quite open even as we start to expand into a greater degree of normalcy. at 8:45, we have ahead of fiscal affairs for the imf talking about the trillions of dollars promised around the world fiscal plan. can we pay for it all especially if all of the fiscal plans are not passed? at 12:00, we have jay powell speaking at the imf conference. really interesting to see what he signals in terms of the threshold to taper. in terms of how they will signal that to a market without unraveling the stability that we currently see. jonathan: do you see anything changing. lisa: make things boring does not work when the market is trying to make things more interesting. if they do not push back, that is a policy stance in itself. jonathan: point taken.
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i'm sure the federal reserve chairman would like to be called boring at this point. tom: no question about that. his goal is to get through this without any uproar. we will have to see. we will monitor that very closely today in the 12:00 hour. right now, gabriella santos of jp morgan -- i've said before, she speaks 14 languages. is mandarin one of them? gabriela: i'm working on that one. so far, i'm focused on romance languages. tom: get to work, you are slacking. mr. diamond did address china. can you -- you address it forcefully in your notes that people are saying, what is the strategic strategy to invest in china? are you long china out three years? gabriela: absolutely.
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and our conversations, we have really moved on from talking about the twists and turns of the pandemic and have started to focus on structural investment themes. china comes up time and time again. it is really about the growth of -- markets. in terms of investing, it has gone from being a tactical allocation based on the business cycle, to being a structural allocation both in the public equity, private equity as well as in the bond market. i think the next decade is all about the growth of china. lisa: this is important because it represents a certain permanence of the economy, a certain permanence of the legal structure around some of these investments. is that the thinking behind some of the lows of the clients that you speak with? the chinese government will not backtrack, will not undermine their investments to policy changes unexpectedly? lisa: -- gabriela: i think there
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is a clear goal from the chinese government that it is absolutely crucial to develop the capital market domestically in china to open them up for foreigners so that you can have a place for the pool of chinese savings to invest in in a way that is more institutionalized. i very much think it is within china's priorities to continue attracting inflows from foreigners. you have seen an explosion of inflows into chinese equities and income. i think it is all about what these investments can offer, which is higher growth, higher income and lower correlation to traditional markets. that has really paid off in the bond market this year. anchor yields moved up only two basis points showing how chinese bonds have an important diversification role to play. lisa: chinese bonds are not the same. and we have seen a number of defaults and plunging on the
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housing development shares in bonds in china. how does that fold into your thesis? does this raise concerns about corporate credit in the region? gabriela: important to realize, the main bond market in china is the local currency bonds market which just opened up to investors around 2017. that is primarily government bonds. there is a component that is corporate credit. that one is really crucial to the your own security option because it is really artificially inflated ratings done by domestic chinese ratings agencies. we would really focus much more on the bigger chunk of the market that his government bonds. that we can get a decent pickup in yield. tom: let me bring it back to the united states.
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you have institutional clients and those on radio and tv enjoying losses in bonds. bloomberg, barclays. treasury index is down two years yields. what do you do in bonds? do you enjoy the losses or is there a do something attitude? gabriela: the second big topic that comes up besides china is inflation and interest rates. our message is that whether there is enough inflation, the debate has changed. that signals the curve will continue steepening, we are not done with the rise in 10 year bond yields. we are just doing a pit stop on the way to 3%. especially when you're starting from low yield and record highs -- for us, it is about shortening duration, moving to extended credits. overall, it is a problem for
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equity versus bond. tom: this is so important because we frame the difference here, the distinction. lisa: that is what i was thinking as she was speaking. stephen majors is saying that structurally, nothing has changed. if we get another disruption like what we saw with our cake is, you have people looking for safety and safety is still u.s. government debt. why do you disagree? gabriela: i agree, we have not changed at the low growth dynamic in the u.s. it is only 175 for the u.s. with inflation at 2%. the issue is that 10 year bond yields are still too low for that reality. we still have a path to get to a neutral resting place. we do not think we are going back to 10 year yield. 3% is low compared to previous decades.
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that period is painful for the bond partisan portfolio and we still probably have a year or year and a half left. jonathan: good to see you, as always. yields come in. the spread right now is 150. the story over the last year has definitely been how quickly we have stupid. -- steepened. tom: we had a real run while you were gone of a lesser negative number, really yield moving toward zero. that has reversed in the last three days. jonathan: i love how you are just rubbing in my time away. all three days of the year so far. lisa: i will just say this, you didn't miss much. this was really a snoozeville. we had the lowest volume days of 2021. jonathan: that is what i try and do, i try to take off the low volume days of the year, and tom
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takes off the high volume days of the year. lisa: and i am always here. jonathan: you are never away. coming up in the next hour, director of fiscal affairs. from new york city this morning, good morning. yields lower. what was trading on good friday? low volume. tom: jobs day. jonathan: log into the bloomberg everywhere. this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden says passing his infrastructure plan is urgently needed to keep the u.s. competitive against china. this president because the packets the biggest jobs investment since world war ii. the publicans have a number of objections.
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bloomberg has learned the u.s. has come out with a new proposal trying to reach a deal on global taxation. the plan says countries should be able to tax more corporate profits based on revenues within their own borders. the u.s. has resisted suggestions from other countries. president joe biden will announce he is taking executive action to string -- tighten gun restrictions. one of those will be aimed at ghost gun's. people are allowed to buy kits that contain the components to build guns in as little as 30 minutes. they are called ghost gun's because they don't have serial numbers so they can be traced to the police. the british government says it remains on course to meet its coronavirus vaccination target. authorities also moving quickly to address safety concerns after the astrazeneca vaccine was effectively ruled out for people under the age of 30. regulators in the u.k. say 79 people maons -- amongst the
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20 million have suffered a blood clots. this is bloomberg.
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>> there are many other ways we can do it, but i am willing to negotiate that. i
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most rational way, in my view, the fairest way to pay for it. there are many other ways as well. jonathan: it was inevitable negotiations would get harder. good morning. counting you down to the opening bell. and 12 minutes. all-time highs on the s&p, 500. equity market up .1 -- .3%. treasury yields bleed lower. we had south, down by three basis points. 165 on tens. tom: bond market moving. i'm watching the nasdaq 100. getting into the earnings season. you mentioned it earlier and you are dead on. joe manchin, jon ferro, no
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accident to a stay as small as west virginia has the same number of senators as california or texas. jonathan: let's make a bipartisan push seems to be the top line. he writes that the time has come to win these political games and usher a new era of bipartisanship. what we have witnessed so far has been anything but. tom: we go to kevin cirilli right now. how alone is he? my guess is that he is not all that alone. kevin: from one joe to the next, he is really the point person when it relates to infrastructure. the triangulation of the power grid here in washington, d.c. comes down to president biden, minority leader mcconnell and senator joe manchin. between the three of those camps, they have been able to release at the goalpost for each
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of the debates from the stimulus, but as well as from infrastructure. they said maybe they are going to have to pass a hard infrastructure bill. you have an opening bid with a lot of hoopla. tom: did you make that comment with sound on on bloomberg radio? kevin: no, and i geico. tom: they talk about the many mansions. how alone is the gentleman from west virginia? kevin: i don't think he is alone at all. they feel he has got to be the individual and leader who can
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lead the pragmatics into the game because quite candidly, he is in a safe states, not up for reelection and can really hold his own. just and covering him over the last 10 years or so, he loves it. he's not going to shy away from a policy fight. jonathan: can always tell when kevin has had enough sleep. senator gillibrand on twitter in the last 24 hours. it is really difficult to know what you are doing when there is no agreement on what infrastructure spending actually is. kevin: democrats, the talking point they have been pushing is railroads word infrastructure decades ago and the boat railroads. secretary lew the judge has come
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out saying they need innovation for tomorrow. it is going to be a robust debate. mike pence coming out yesterday creating a packed for 2024. outlined some of his core principles, lawmakers don't get paid unless they balance the budget. he is pushing to audit the fed. the populist tea party talk that was post-2008 on the right is alive and well and the flames being stoked in the 2024 debate that is being started. lisa: how much of this is actually sticking or trying to find a new platform ahead of the 2022 midterms? it seems like this is a very popular bill when it comes to the rank-and-file of americans. forget the affiliation. is this just basically talking points to see how to energize the base? kevin: in the right galvanizing
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the growth crowd, which has been very skeptical of all the money being spent, i think it will further provide a more political capital for the right to unify around an economic message. to your point, i think senator kunz on the left, they are going to have to pass a skinny infrastructure. that is still pretty big when you're talking about $1 trillion. the ultimate price tag, we are still talking about a lot of money. jonathan: i think we have to take a step back and see what has been going on over the last four or five years. what we could face going forward here, which is a one term presidency that unravels and undoes with the previous administration did. if we are going to start doing that around taxes without a bipartisan effort, it is not going to be very good for the future of this economy just unraveling what the other side has done because there has been
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refusal to engage in a bipartisan effort, not just this time, but last time too. kevin: i agree with that analysis and that assessment. especially when you are looking at the midterms where the house could flit back to control of the right. whether you're talking about raising taxes on off share -- offshore profits like secretary allen argued yesterday. that is just a nonstarter for the right. they feel the tax debate is not something they want to have. jonathan: as always, good to see you. think about what is happening. all of the articles that have been written about this huge change in washington. now, let's talk about the margins in the house and the senate. is there a mandate to have that kind of effort?
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compared to the 1980's, there was a mandate. you had a president absolutely crushed the elections he won. tom: and there was true bipartisan effort. there is a very famous photo of to o'neill with ronald reagan. those days are gone. within the polarity, you are right, those narrow gaps in the house, definitely, but even in the senate, the middle has great strength. jonathan: shall we face this moment of an autocratic regime, an authoritarian regime facing off against a democratic regime in the united states, the face of democracy in the western world? we face the very real prospect of not being able to actually know what corporate taxes going to look like for the next decade because they could whipsaw from 28 to 21 to 28 to 21 to 35. tom: it is the short-termism of a democracy versus what appears
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to be in russia and china on more long-term. look at the new length of term putin is looking at. jonathan: which i think was the point jamie dimon was trying to make in his letter. equities, all-time highs. s&p 500 up .3%.
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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. on the nasdaq, futures up there .9% -- up 0.9%. since the march low, up 10%. stability in the bond market. into two's, ten's, and 30's. right now, on tens we come in three basis points. on 30's we come in three basis points as well. stump stability -- some
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stability in the treasury market. euro-dollar to we could go through the 200 day moving average. we break below it. then we start talking about a $1.16 handle. now we are getting really close to breaking above it. one dollar eight -- $1.1864 is your 200 day moving average. that is just some of the technical factors playing into the euro-dollar story of the last couple of weeks. tom: the vix is very important. we just had a 16 handle. 17.01 on the vix. you asked me where we need to be to be pre-pandemic. i did a kleinman moving average, and 15.60 is a critical point for vix. we are not there yet, but we are getting there rapidly. jonathan: 17 handle on the vix. a little more on that a little later. here's romaine. romaine: you talk about the vix but it's doing. you also have to look at the
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volume. it has been a real tepid week for volume. second lowest volume day on the s&p yesterday this year. a big part of that is you're just not seeing the influx of buyers coming to this market. the buyers that are coming to the market are gravitating more towards some of those defensive names. your apples, your facebooks, your microsofts.fund managers are still pointing to some of those growth names, but private wealth managers are saying you go procyclical, short duration, and that means the companies that can deliver the cash and the earnings now. that is why you have apple trading back its february levels. microsoft at a record high. amazon at a record high. tom: are you telling me that the basis consensus -- the basic consensus is wrong here? romaine: i'm just telling you where the trend is right now,
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maybe not as bullish as you would think. tom: the record highs are they are, but i see a shift in the last three days since you helped anchor "bloomberg surveillance." i see a major shift going on. romaine: did you tell jon how well i did that day? jonathan: i'm really proud of you. well done, romaine. romaine: before we get too far off the rails, this was one of the most undervalued cloud application software companies out there. kkr now said to be in talks to take a stake in this company. aaron leavy, who was the ceo and chairman of the company, will relinquish the role. now you have the board full of hedge fund managers. jeff smith at star board had been kicking the tires on this for a while. you are finally getting those
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board changes at gamestop, solidifying ryan cohen's role as chairman of that company. in twitter, late last night we got word that apparently twitter has been in talks to buy clubhouse for $4 billion. tom: interesting. ferro is on clubhouse. that's be sure that we maintain jon's confidence here and have jon bring in robert miller of blackrock. it will give jon some more faith. [laughter] jonathan: about 10 years ago i had to do tom keene training camp as well. they would say, join tom. tom wants to talk about the market's. i would say, what does he want to talk about? they would say, no one's got any clue. i would come on and he would just say, argentina. [laughter] i'd be sitting there in london covering the euro zone debt crisis thinking, argentina? you want to talk about argentina? i would do my best, and he would just go triple meant. that was great -- triple mint.
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that was great. thanks, tom. tom: why don't you bring in robert miller? jonathan: i will do that now, blackrock head of american fundamental. what's happening right now, bob? bob: thanks for the opportunity to catch up. i do think this is a consolidation. when you take a step back and consider what's happened in the last six months, i think it is really important to keep in mind that we haven't seen a policy prescription in the domestic economy like we are witnessing today in over 40 years. you really have to go to the post-world war ii period to see significant fiscal policy cooperation in a noncrisis period. our argument, as your question -- to answer your question directly, i think this is a
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pause and i think rates go higher over the balance of the year for a variety of reasons, but primarily for the same reasons that have brought us to these levels from 100 basis lowers in 10 year notes six months ago. that is a function of substantially better nominal gdp growth, significantly greater net issuance of treasuries, and a dual policy impulse right now that is frankly disproportionately large relative to the actual economic cost that covid created. we are likely going to get more fiscal policy with the administrations'-- with the administration's build back better plan. policy is a bit aggressive and needs to be recalibrated. i think it is naive to assume it is going to be recalibrated from the physical side, given that
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there is a high probability of more in the pipeline, so that repot liberation -- so that recalibration falls on the fed. it is not clear they want that burden at the moment, but i think the fed will be forced into recalibrating policy, and that should be considered a win. it should be considered a good thing that the economy is recovering at a pace, breadth and depth, that allows them to get off emergency policy settings that were put in place 10 months ago when it is increasingly clear that the emergency appears quite a ways behind us. jonathan: when you say the fed might have to recalibrate, around which tools? bob: first and foremost is the monthly purchases of $120 billion worth of securities, without a doubt. the way that average inflation targeting framework has been laid out, the zero interest rate policy which can debate if it is the wrong a right thing to do,
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but rates are going to be at zero for a considerable period. the market has rates priced at zero until the end of 2022, so nearly two years forward. it is the magnitude of the securities purchases. i think there are some clever things they can do that are different than simply following the analog from the 2013-2014 paper -- from the 2013-2014 taper. but it is a lack of willingness to a knowledge the improvement underway and to begin to consider what's recalibration could look like. lisa: so what does stealth tapering look like? that seems to be what you are suggesting, that they could make changes on the margins that could effectively create a tapering type of situation that necessarily saying it. bob: i think they will have to say it, but we have been thinking about this for a while, and we keep coming to the
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conclusion that their estimate -- coming to the conclusion don't underestimate. if the solution is to lay out monthly schedules, you can make a case for doing something like the following. two places in the market where the fed is directly crowding out private investor demand for securities are in agency mortgages and the front-end of the coupon curve, the two to three to 5-year note portion of the treasury curve. banks and other investors are actively looking for those securities, and the fed is buying a substantial portion of them. so it is plausible in my mind that you could see something like taper mortgages and front end coupons at first, leave the current purchase rate the same
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out the yield curve in treasuries. you would be providing less accommodation, but you would be continuing to put securities into a place where the private sector has less interest over the last six months. tom: there's this phrase, substantial further progress. clearly we are making that. james dimon at jp morgan says we are making substantial further progress. larry fink says we are making substantial further progress. what happens when jerome powell says that? bob: i get the nature of your question, and i think it is a win. i think it can be presented as the combination of monetary, fiscal, and importantly, the vaccine rollout has created an environment where the fed can -- you are not going to declare
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victory, but they can say here is our opportunity to get off emergency policy, and i do not believe it creates a taper tantrum. the market is already 125 basis point above the lowly yields -- the low yields of last summer. the market has repriced without disturbing other asset classes because the repricing has been for all of the right reasons. inflation breakevens have absorbed a substantial proportion of the rise in real rates. real rates remain considerably negative at the five and 10 year point. so i don't think we should be worried, i don't think we should have scar tissue from the 2013 taper tantrum because i don't think you're going to have a taper tantrum this time. i think the fed can deliver this in a way that allows them to rebuild some tools in their toolkit, if you will. jonathan: bob, always good to catch up. we will have to pick up this conversation another time.
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on substantial further progress, they still think it will be sometime before they achieve that. tom: 2022, 2023? the major story yesterday was james dimon was working on extending out that good news of that economy. jonathan: i needed the day off just to read it. from new york city this morning, good morning. tom: you're the only one who did. [laughter] jonathan: tom, stay out of trouble. equities all-time highs on the s&p, up 15, 0.4%. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. a key democrat just made getting president biden's agenda through the senate more difficult. senator joe manchin of west virginia says he opposes scrapping the filibuster under any circumstance, writing in "the washington post."
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he says the law that requires 60 votes are most legislation is a critical to to represent less populous states. manchin effectively has a veto in the senate that is divided 50-50. the white house is considering whether to double the previous commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions. the biden adminstration may propose to reduce emissions by 50% or more by the end of the decade. that would require rheumatic changes in the power of transportation and other sectors. a potential boycott of the winter olympics in beijing could be the next big battle with china. the u.s. isn't discussing any joint boycott with potential allies. still, china says any attempt by the u.s. to criticize china over human rights will stop. in singapore, a finance minister -- the finance minister has stepped aside as the designated successor to the prime minister. in a letter, he said the pandemic meant he would likely
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be too old to be prime minister when the crisis is over, roughly five years from now. he has signaled his intention to step down when he turns 70. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> financial markets are extremely frothy.
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we have zero policy rates or negative policy rates in advanced economies. financial conditions are very easy, and we are seeing widespread frothiness and bubbles. jonathan: that was in the last couple of days. morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action on the s&p 500. record highs into thursday's session on the s&p, up another 0.3 percent. yields lower by three basis points at 1.6439% on tens. euro-dollar now positive on the session, up about 0.1% to $1.1879. high-yield spreads to 90 in america. tight, tight, tight. tom: lisa really on top of that story. one thing we know in zurich is if you louis vuitton, across the
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street from herr ms. -- from mez -- from hermes, credit suite is behind the granites walls -- credit suisse is behind the granite walls. marcus ashworth joins us now on zurich and credit suisse. i know what they have to do to entrench the chronic mistrust or growing lesser trust in credit suisse. how did they do that? marcus: reverberations are moving around in the context that you can see a lot of the senior managers, the ones that are left, that is, have expressed disrespect for how the management, that is got steam --
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that is gottstein, has handled this so far. i think there is a failure here because what i can't get the answer from anyone is there's some very smart people at credit suisse. how come they were over a week behind everyone else in reacting to it? it seems bewildering. nomura was a bit behind the curve because they had to wait for approval from tokyo, but they got on it a day later. why was credit suisse solo? -- suisse so slow? tom: if this was london, they get put out of their misery. if this was new york, they get put out of their misery. when do they get put out of their misery? marcus: they fired pretty much all of the people responsible, but you've got to have people to take those jobs quickly end know
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what they are doing, which in some instances they have just pulled back and people they replaced and had hidden them somewhere else. but the real guy i think it's important here is christian meisner, he very experienced lehman/merrill guy. i think we need to finish action. what credit suisse is going to do next with the prime brokerage business, are they going to stay in it? how are they going to handle their risk management? this is not just archegos or greensill. it is a whole litany. the set of garden rakes they have stepped on, entire garden stores could run out of stock. jonathan: a lot of people keep bringing get up. david heroes had almost exact leave the same thing to me last week. that is why he has some companies in the future and the new chairman. for those of us in the u.k. over the last 10 to 20 years, we know
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him and lloyd's markets. why is he so important for the next move from credit suisse? marcus: well, there are mixed opinions on how this gentleman's time at lloyd's has been. i will never forgive him for putting some stunts on for trying to ruin lloyd's bondholders with perpetual debt, trying to cancel the high coupon stuff. on balance, yes, lloyd's is in a better place than it was. has he necessarily done a fabulous job? i think you will find there's pretty mixed opinions on that. his experience isn't directly relevant to credit suisse, but what we need is an outside force to come in and offer a different route for credit suisse. they are known all around as a fine bank, a fabulous record in investment banking. they can turn this around.
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they hopefully will turn this around. i hope the new chairman knows what he's doing. i am not making a judgment on that. i just don't point to any experience which makes it clear that he's the right person for the job. lisa: there are a lot of questions still around this whole episode, including the prime broker function at a time of incredibly highly elevated valuations and markets, which brings me to a larger point that hsbc's stephen mager laid out this morning. there is far too much leverage in the system, much of which may not be visible until something happens. something happened with archegos. how likely is it from the people you speak with that we will see other types of incidents like this that roping more banks perhaps? marcus: there's already a couple of rumors about things that happened last night. there's other family offices which may be of -- i mean, this particular family office, it is a hedge fund. just relabeled because they can
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get out of different types of regulation. they exploited the system at the very weakness of what the system is supposed to spot, and they have managed to get extreme leverage and abused it. this guys a rogue trader in every sense of the word. let's hope there aren't as bad examples as this individual. nonetheless, there are going to be overstretched, overleveraged family offices which have got too much leverage, and this really ought to be a wake-up call after gamestop pushed all of those shortselling hedge funds the limit. it was a real lookup: january. i expect archegos might be behind some of those squeezes, but that is another story. really, this is a chance for leverage in the system and the regulators to get a grip on it before we get further examples. jonathan: it is the latest in a series of wake-up calls for credit suisse. deutsche bank has not been in the conversation. do you think it is a fair characterization to call credit suisse the new deutsche bank in
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europe right now? [laughter] marcus: that is bill blank's call. i think they need to get away from constantly stepping on exploded bombs. it's got exactly the same problem deutsche bank had. it doesn't have people stopping its aggressive business lines which you can handle when they all the wrong, and they are all going wrong. unfortunately, that is exactly what it is. jonathan: marcus, good to catch up with you. marcus ashworth of bloomberg intelligence, thank you. that is the conversation right now in europe, that credit suisse may be the problem child of european banking in the same way that deutsche bank was over the last couple of years. tom: if credit suisse was in london, in the city come out at the wharf, if credit suisse was based in new york, will that this conversation be? that is open to debate. i will wait on the reporting from that from sri natarajan and others. but what would their board be doing? jonathan: do using they would be
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making another move? tom: i think they are in zurich, and zurich is a unique place. you go to the mcdonald's above louis vuitton there and it is like $14 for a number two. jonathan: i've been there with you. we did not go to mcdonald's. i know that. management knows that, too. this is bloomberg. ♪
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(announcer) do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me. it works, 100%. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. ♪ >> we are going to start to see spending go, and then we will have to have a real conversation about inflation. >> whether there is an uptick in inflation, cyclicals, structural's, to be determined. but the debate has changed, and that matters. >> the forces that are working or slowing down the recovery of the world economy. >> we are going to see rates pressured with high unemployment for a while. >> at the market rallies, you have started to seek volatility climb again. that is typically not a great sign. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.
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